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MOBILE IS
EATING THE
WORLD
BENEDICT EVANS
@BenedictEvans
May 2015
Mobile is making
technology universal
3
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1995 2000
Billion people online
Growth into the bubble
Source: ITU, a16z
4
0
1
2
3
1995 2000 2014
Billion people online
People online
Smartphones
Growth since the bubble
Source: ITU, a16z
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995 2000 2014 2020
Billion people online
People online
Smartphones
Growth into the future - everyone
Another 1bn people will come online, all due to smartphones
Source: ITU, a16z
6
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Global adult population
No Internet
No smartphone
The end of the unconnected
Smartphones drive much greater internet penetration
Source: a16z, World Bank, Apple, Google, Nokia
7
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Population Adults Mobile Online population Smart phones PCs
Global population (bn)
Growth to 2020
2014
The world in 2020
By 2020 80% of adults on earth will have a smartphone
Source: World Bank, GSMA, a16z
An iPhone 6 CPU has 625 times more
transistors than a 1995 Pentium.
iPhone 6 launch weekend: Apple sold ~25x
more CPU transistors than were in all the PCs
on Earth in 1995.
Everyone gets a pocket supercomputer.
Source: Apple, Intel, a16z
9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Cellular coverage 3G coverage now 3G coverage by
2019
Improved water Electricity Mobile users
Sub-Saharan Africa population coverage
Yes, everyone
The utility of mobile increases as income falls
Source: Ericsson, McKinsey
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
PC average iPhone average Android average Android entry price
Device price ($)
$35 Android takes computing everywhere
Cost of power and connectivity becomes as material as the cost of the device
Source: Barclays Capital, Apple, a16z
11
We go from this…
Source: James Cridland (https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamescridland/612782641)11
12
… To this
Source: Alan Knott-Craig12
Mobile remakes the
tech industry
14
0
100
200
300
400
Mar-95 Sep-96 Mar-98 Sep-99 Mar-01 Sep-02 Mar-04 Sep-05 Mar-07 Sep-08 Mar-10 Sep-11 Mar-13 Sep-14
Quarterly unit shipments (m)
iOS & Android
PCs
The smartphone industry dwarfs PCs
4bn people buying phones every 2 years instead of 1.6bn buying PCs every 5 years
Source: Gartner, Apple, Google, a16z
15
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Games consoles Cameras TVs PCs Smartphones Mobile phones
Unit sales, 2014 (bn)
Phones have scale that’s unique in tech
The first tech product to be bought by almost everyone on earth, every 2-3 years
Source: CIPA, Displaysearch, Gartner, companies, a16z
16
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Smartphone & tablet share of global CE retail revenue
Mobile scale eats consumer electronics
Smartphones & tablets are now close to half of the consumer electronics industry
Source: GfK, a16z
17
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14
Microsoft share of personal computing device sales*
Shift away from Microsoft
Microsoft’s near-absence from mobile has ended its dominance
•  Smartphones, tablets, PCs & Macs.
•  Source: Gartner, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Blackberry, a16z
18
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Million people
Chinese mobile
internet users
EU population
USA population
China is the biggest smartphone market
Historic dominance starting to shift
Source: CNNIC, US Census Bureau, Eurostat
19
iPhone, 34%
Xiaomi, 20%MEIZU, 11%
Samsung, 8%
Huawei, 4%
Other, 23%
What phone brands do Chinese teenagers want? (Q4 2014)
Chinese handset players growing fast
Chinese brands are stronger than any foreign company – except Apple
Source: Baidu
Apple has 15% of the overall
market (same as global) -
but much stronger brand
appeal
New Chinese OEMs with
premium positioning are
growing fast
20
Tech center of gravity moves from Seattle
and Finland (and Japan)
Old New
Computing platform Microsoft Apple & Google
Chips Intel
ARM, Qualcomm,
Mediatek
Mobile Nokia & DoCoMo China, San Francisco
21
Mobile supply chain dominates all tech
The size of the smartphone business means it is driving into every other part of tech
Augmented Reality,
Virtual Reality,
Wearables, Internet of
Things, connected cars,
connected home,
drones etc
Hardware tech for
almost anything is on
the shelf
The challenge is vision
and route to market
Flood of smartphone
components – Lego for
technology
Contract manufacturers
can assemble those
components into
anything
Mobile remakes the
internet
23
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2012 2013 2014
Mobile share of 'Black Friday' ecommerce
Traffic
Value
The growth of post-PC devices
Smartphones and tablets taking half of browsing and a third of purchasing
Source: IBM, a16z
24
Only at home
8%
Mainly at home
16%
Both at home and outside
66%
Mainly out of home
9%
Only out of home
1%
Where do you use the internet on your phone? (UK, Q1 2014)
‘Mobile’ doesn’t really mean mobile
Mobile devices are used everywhere, not just when people are ‘mobile’
Source: Ofcom
For 20 years, ‘internet’ meant web browsers,
mouse and keyboard. Mobile ended that.
Half of all time spent online in the USA is in
smartphone apps.
Post-Netscape, post-PageRank.
26
Interaction models are totally unsettled
Rapid innovation and change continues
“I installed an app on my Android smartphone ”
“Installed” an “app”? Web apps,
APIs, push notifications, messaging,
Google Now…
“Android”? Chrome, Xiaomi…
“Smartphone?” Watches,
Glass, wearables, TV,
tablets…
27
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Phone unit sales Global Browsing Delhi FB users SF FB users App store revenue
Mobile platform share, Q4 2014
Android
iOS
Platforms are more complex
Ecosystem dynamics depend on where you are and what you’re doing
Source: Facebook, Apple, Google, Gartner, Akamai, a16z
28
A computer
shouldn’t ask
anything that
it should
know
Sensors
profoundly
change what
a computer
can know
Every new
sensor
creates a
new business
Phones are more sophisticated than PCs
Proliferation of sensors creates far more capability and sophistication than PCs
29
Mobile’s multiplier effect
Increased sophistication from mobile is as important as the increase in scale
x
Personal
Taken everywhere
Frictionless access
Sensors, cameras
Location
Payment
Social platform
Much easier to use
Vastly bigger
opportunity=
2-3x more
smartphones
than PCs by
2020
30
0
1
2
3
4
Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15
Facebook revenue by source ($bn)
Mobile ads
Payments & Other
Desktop ads
Facebook’s mobile ad explosion
Mobile ads are now 68% of revenue and brought in $7.4bn in 2014
Source: Facebook, a16z
Global SMS: 20bn messages a day.
WhatsApp: 30bn messages a day.
(with just 40 engineers)
Source: GSMA, WhatsApp
32
2000
100 staff
1m users
$10m raised
Today
10 staff
10m users
$1m raised
?
1 engineer
1m users
$0 raised
Fundamental change in opportunity
Mobile leverage plus collapse of development costs
Mobile dominates
our attention
34
Screens dominate our lives
More than half our time awake is spend on media and communications
Source: Ofcom
35
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
Global LCD screen sales (bn square feet)
Glass is eating the world
Close to a square foot of screen sold for every adult on earth
Source: Corning
36
TVs
24%
iOS
13%
Google Android
23%
Chinese Android
9%
WP/RIM
1%
PCs & Macs
30%
Global install base of video players, 2014
TV sets are in the minority
Computing devices used for video now far outnumber actual ‘televisions’
Source: Apple, Google, Nokia, Blackberry, Displaysearch, a16z
“By the summer of 2012,
the majority of the
televisions you see in
stores will have Google
TV embedded”
- Eric Schmidt
37
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Boys Girls
‘Media you would miss most', UK aged 11-15, 2014
Other
TV set
Games console
PC
Mobile & tablet
What would children miss the most? Mobile
Mobile dwarfs legacy media platforms
Source: Ofcom
38
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Adults 11 to 15
Share of communication activity, UK, 2014
Photo messages
Messaging apps
Social networks
Phone calls
Email
Comms are going pure digital, pure mobile
Email is for grandparents
Source: Ofcom
1999 – 80bn consumer photos taken on film.
2014 – 800bn photos shared on social.
More iPhones & Android phones sold than
Japanese cameras ever.
More photos taken this year than taken on
film ever.
Source: Kodak, Companies, CIPA, a16z
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Japanese camera unit sales (m)
Film
Digital, DSLR
etc
Digital, Fixed
lens
Digital gives and it takes away
Digital’s convenience led to a surge in camera sales, but then smartphones took over
Source: CIPA, a16z
Tech outgrows tech
42
Three phases of technology deployment
Companies that make
technology
Companies that buy
technology
Companies that are
built around technology
43
Companies that buy technology
Tech has become part of
every office
Like plants, tech is part
of facilities
But is the business built
around it?
44
Building companies around new technology
The really important new businesses are native to new technologies
Trucks &
highways
Trucks &
highways
Web &
Smartphones
Smartphones
McDonald’s Wal-Mart Airbnb Uber / Lyft
Food Retail Travel Transport
45
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Amazon since launch ($bn)
Revenue
Net income
Amazon: a retailer built around tech
Amazon is building the Sears Roebuck of the 21st Century – not a tech company
Source: Amazon
46
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Amazon North America ecommerce as % US retail*
And Amazon is only 1.5% of the way
Amazon still only has 1.5% of US retail revenue
* Excludes automobiles & parts, gasoline and food service. Source: BLS, Amazon, a16z
47
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Quarterly revenue ($bn)
Amazon
Wal-Mart
Amazon versus Wal-Mart
(Why would you stop to take profits?)
Source: Bloomberg
48
Mobile scale allows far more Amazons
Most tech is bought and paid for,
not used to create new businesses
10 years ago, AirBnB would have
sold software to Hilton
Uber would have sold software to
taxi companies
Scale of mobile, software mean the
opportunity is vastly bigger
More and more companies
following Amazon, Uber, AirBnB to
disrupt existing industries with tech
49
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Frequency of ‘Railways’ in Google Books
When tech is fully adopted, it disappears
Source: Google
50
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Frequency of ‘Steel’ in Google Books
Steel
Source: Google
51
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Frequency of ‘Computerization’ in Google Books
Computerization
Source: Google
52
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Frequency of ‘Software’ in Google Books
Software
Software is changing the world just as much
Source: Google
Software is eating
the world
Tech is outgrowing
the tech industry

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Mobile Is Eating the World (2015)

  • 1. MOBILE IS EATING THE WORLD BENEDICT EVANS @BenedictEvans May 2015
  • 3. 3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1995 2000 Billion people online Growth into the bubble Source: ITU, a16z
  • 4. 4 0 1 2 3 1995 2000 2014 Billion people online People online Smartphones Growth since the bubble Source: ITU, a16z
  • 5. 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 1995 2000 2014 2020 Billion people online People online Smartphones Growth into the future - everyone Another 1bn people will come online, all due to smartphones Source: ITU, a16z
  • 6. 6 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Global adult population No Internet No smartphone The end of the unconnected Smartphones drive much greater internet penetration Source: a16z, World Bank, Apple, Google, Nokia
  • 7. 7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Population Adults Mobile Online population Smart phones PCs Global population (bn) Growth to 2020 2014 The world in 2020 By 2020 80% of adults on earth will have a smartphone Source: World Bank, GSMA, a16z
  • 8. An iPhone 6 CPU has 625 times more transistors than a 1995 Pentium. iPhone 6 launch weekend: Apple sold ~25x more CPU transistors than were in all the PCs on Earth in 1995. Everyone gets a pocket supercomputer. Source: Apple, Intel, a16z
  • 9. 9 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Cellular coverage 3G coverage now 3G coverage by 2019 Improved water Electricity Mobile users Sub-Saharan Africa population coverage Yes, everyone The utility of mobile increases as income falls Source: Ericsson, McKinsey
  • 10. 10 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 PC average iPhone average Android average Android entry price Device price ($) $35 Android takes computing everywhere Cost of power and connectivity becomes as material as the cost of the device Source: Barclays Capital, Apple, a16z
  • 11. 11 We go from this… Source: James Cridland (https://www.flickr.com/photos/jamescridland/612782641)11
  • 12. 12 … To this Source: Alan Knott-Craig12
  • 14. 14 0 100 200 300 400 Mar-95 Sep-96 Mar-98 Sep-99 Mar-01 Sep-02 Mar-04 Sep-05 Mar-07 Sep-08 Mar-10 Sep-11 Mar-13 Sep-14 Quarterly unit shipments (m) iOS & Android PCs The smartphone industry dwarfs PCs 4bn people buying phones every 2 years instead of 1.6bn buying PCs every 5 years Source: Gartner, Apple, Google, a16z
  • 15. 15 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Games consoles Cameras TVs PCs Smartphones Mobile phones Unit sales, 2014 (bn) Phones have scale that’s unique in tech The first tech product to be bought by almost everyone on earth, every 2-3 years Source: CIPA, Displaysearch, Gartner, companies, a16z
  • 16. 16 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Smartphone & tablet share of global CE retail revenue Mobile scale eats consumer electronics Smartphones & tablets are now close to half of the consumer electronics industry Source: GfK, a16z
  • 17. 17 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Microsoft share of personal computing device sales* Shift away from Microsoft Microsoft’s near-absence from mobile has ended its dominance •  Smartphones, tablets, PCs & Macs. •  Source: Gartner, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Blackberry, a16z
  • 18. 18 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Million people Chinese mobile internet users EU population USA population China is the biggest smartphone market Historic dominance starting to shift Source: CNNIC, US Census Bureau, Eurostat
  • 19. 19 iPhone, 34% Xiaomi, 20%MEIZU, 11% Samsung, 8% Huawei, 4% Other, 23% What phone brands do Chinese teenagers want? (Q4 2014) Chinese handset players growing fast Chinese brands are stronger than any foreign company – except Apple Source: Baidu Apple has 15% of the overall market (same as global) - but much stronger brand appeal New Chinese OEMs with premium positioning are growing fast
  • 20. 20 Tech center of gravity moves from Seattle and Finland (and Japan) Old New Computing platform Microsoft Apple & Google Chips Intel ARM, Qualcomm, Mediatek Mobile Nokia & DoCoMo China, San Francisco
  • 21. 21 Mobile supply chain dominates all tech The size of the smartphone business means it is driving into every other part of tech Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality, Wearables, Internet of Things, connected cars, connected home, drones etc Hardware tech for almost anything is on the shelf The challenge is vision and route to market Flood of smartphone components – Lego for technology Contract manufacturers can assemble those components into anything
  • 23. 23 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2012 2013 2014 Mobile share of 'Black Friday' ecommerce Traffic Value The growth of post-PC devices Smartphones and tablets taking half of browsing and a third of purchasing Source: IBM, a16z
  • 24. 24 Only at home 8% Mainly at home 16% Both at home and outside 66% Mainly out of home 9% Only out of home 1% Where do you use the internet on your phone? (UK, Q1 2014) ‘Mobile’ doesn’t really mean mobile Mobile devices are used everywhere, not just when people are ‘mobile’ Source: Ofcom
  • 25. For 20 years, ‘internet’ meant web browsers, mouse and keyboard. Mobile ended that. Half of all time spent online in the USA is in smartphone apps. Post-Netscape, post-PageRank.
  • 26. 26 Interaction models are totally unsettled Rapid innovation and change continues “I installed an app on my Android smartphone ” “Installed” an “app”? Web apps, APIs, push notifications, messaging, Google Now… “Android”? Chrome, Xiaomi… “Smartphone?” Watches, Glass, wearables, TV, tablets…
  • 27. 27 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Phone unit sales Global Browsing Delhi FB users SF FB users App store revenue Mobile platform share, Q4 2014 Android iOS Platforms are more complex Ecosystem dynamics depend on where you are and what you’re doing Source: Facebook, Apple, Google, Gartner, Akamai, a16z
  • 28. 28 A computer shouldn’t ask anything that it should know Sensors profoundly change what a computer can know Every new sensor creates a new business Phones are more sophisticated than PCs Proliferation of sensors creates far more capability and sophistication than PCs
  • 29. 29 Mobile’s multiplier effect Increased sophistication from mobile is as important as the increase in scale x Personal Taken everywhere Frictionless access Sensors, cameras Location Payment Social platform Much easier to use Vastly bigger opportunity= 2-3x more smartphones than PCs by 2020
  • 30. 30 0 1 2 3 4 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Facebook revenue by source ($bn) Mobile ads Payments & Other Desktop ads Facebook’s mobile ad explosion Mobile ads are now 68% of revenue and brought in $7.4bn in 2014 Source: Facebook, a16z
  • 31. Global SMS: 20bn messages a day. WhatsApp: 30bn messages a day. (with just 40 engineers) Source: GSMA, WhatsApp
  • 32. 32 2000 100 staff 1m users $10m raised Today 10 staff 10m users $1m raised ? 1 engineer 1m users $0 raised Fundamental change in opportunity Mobile leverage plus collapse of development costs
  • 34. 34 Screens dominate our lives More than half our time awake is spend on media and communications Source: Ofcom
  • 35. 35 0 1 2 3 4 5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e Global LCD screen sales (bn square feet) Glass is eating the world Close to a square foot of screen sold for every adult on earth Source: Corning
  • 36. 36 TVs 24% iOS 13% Google Android 23% Chinese Android 9% WP/RIM 1% PCs & Macs 30% Global install base of video players, 2014 TV sets are in the minority Computing devices used for video now far outnumber actual ‘televisions’ Source: Apple, Google, Nokia, Blackberry, Displaysearch, a16z “By the summer of 2012, the majority of the televisions you see in stores will have Google TV embedded” - Eric Schmidt
  • 37. 37 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Boys Girls ‘Media you would miss most', UK aged 11-15, 2014 Other TV set Games console PC Mobile & tablet What would children miss the most? Mobile Mobile dwarfs legacy media platforms Source: Ofcom
  • 38. 38 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Adults 11 to 15 Share of communication activity, UK, 2014 Photo messages Messaging apps Social networks Phone calls Email Comms are going pure digital, pure mobile Email is for grandparents Source: Ofcom
  • 39. 1999 – 80bn consumer photos taken on film. 2014 – 800bn photos shared on social. More iPhones & Android phones sold than Japanese cameras ever. More photos taken this year than taken on film ever. Source: Kodak, Companies, CIPA, a16z
  • 40. 40 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Japanese camera unit sales (m) Film Digital, DSLR etc Digital, Fixed lens Digital gives and it takes away Digital’s convenience led to a surge in camera sales, but then smartphones took over Source: CIPA, a16z
  • 42. 42 Three phases of technology deployment Companies that make technology Companies that buy technology Companies that are built around technology
  • 43. 43 Companies that buy technology Tech has become part of every office Like plants, tech is part of facilities But is the business built around it?
  • 44. 44 Building companies around new technology The really important new businesses are native to new technologies Trucks & highways Trucks & highways Web & Smartphones Smartphones McDonald’s Wal-Mart Airbnb Uber / Lyft Food Retail Travel Transport
  • 45. 45 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Amazon since launch ($bn) Revenue Net income Amazon: a retailer built around tech Amazon is building the Sears Roebuck of the 21st Century – not a tech company Source: Amazon
  • 46. 46 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Amazon North America ecommerce as % US retail* And Amazon is only 1.5% of the way Amazon still only has 1.5% of US retail revenue * Excludes automobiles & parts, gasoline and food service. Source: BLS, Amazon, a16z
  • 47. 47 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Quarterly revenue ($bn) Amazon Wal-Mart Amazon versus Wal-Mart (Why would you stop to take profits?) Source: Bloomberg
  • 48. 48 Mobile scale allows far more Amazons Most tech is bought and paid for, not used to create new businesses 10 years ago, AirBnB would have sold software to Hilton Uber would have sold software to taxi companies Scale of mobile, software mean the opportunity is vastly bigger More and more companies following Amazon, Uber, AirBnB to disrupt existing industries with tech
  • 49. 49 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Frequency of ‘Railways’ in Google Books When tech is fully adopted, it disappears Source: Google
  • 50. 50 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Frequency of ‘Steel’ in Google Books Steel Source: Google
  • 51. 51 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Frequency of ‘Computerization’ in Google Books Computerization Source: Google
  • 52. 52 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Frequency of ‘Software’ in Google Books Software Software is changing the world just as much Source: Google
  • 53. Software is eating the world Tech is outgrowing the tech industry