Launch of the IFPRI 2018 Global Food Policy Report: Food Security from Global to MENA Beirut, Lebanon Co-Organized by IFPRI, the Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences (FAFS) and the Food Security Program at the American University of Beirut

1. A tale of two MENAs
Food Security in the Middle East and North
Africa.

2. REGIONAL AND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
Africa
• Famine and near-famine conditions in South Sudan,
Nigeria, and Somalia
• African Agricultural Transformation Scorecard launched
East and Southeast Asia
• Myanmar promoting climate-smart villages
• Multi-country seed policy agreement
signed for climate-resilient rice varieties
Central Asia
• Policy reforms in Uzbekistan to enhance access to
machinery, fertilizer, and credit
• Kazakhstan approved State Program for Agro-Industrial
Development
Latin America & Caribbean
• Economic slowdown and sluggish recovery impacting
poverty and undernourishment
• Prospects of expanded agricultural production in
Colombia following peace process
Middle East & North Africa
• Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen face
continuing conflict, impacting incomes and food security
• Social protection schemes expanded in several countries
• OPEC cut oil production
South Asia
• Heavy floods impacted rainy-season food supply
• Bangladesh instituting nationwide electronic system
to monitor public food grain stocks

3. Regional developments: Middle East and North Africa
A tale of two MENAs
Source: Breisinger, Abdelaziz, and Khouri 2018
 MENA in Conflict vs. MENA Reforming
 Status of Food Security
 Agricultural and related investments
 Macroeconomic policy reforms
 Oil Exporters
 Oil Importers
 Looking forward

4. Regional developments: Middle East and North Africa
A tale of two MENAs
Source: Breisinger, Abdelaziz, and Khouri 2018
“one MENA”
geopolitical conflicts
“other MENA” facing obstacles to
economic reforms due to spillovers
from:
 Fluctuating oil prices
 Surrounding conflicts

5. Overall Findings
 MENA the region with the
greatest number of conflicts and
refugees in the world
 Well-managed globalization is
critical for MENA as a region with
high food import and mineral
resource export dependency
 Food security and incomes
continued to deteriorate,
especially for countries in conflict
 Macroeconomic policy reforms
expected to improve economic
growth, employment, and food
security
 Expanding social protection
schemes to compensate negative
effects of reforms on the poor

6. Food Imports and Fuel Exports in MENA
compared to the World

7. Oil Exporters: GDP, Food Affordability and Policy Changes

8. Oil exporters: contractionary policy (energy price adjustments,
subsidy cuts and more taxes) + Diversification plans (non oil sector)
Saudi Arabia
 National
Transformation Plan
(NTP) 2020 and Vision
2030: diversify
economy from oil
dependence
 subsidy reforms to
bring fuel and utilities
prices closer to
international
benchmarks following
the first cuts in
December 2015.
Algeria
 Subsidies on fuel and
electricity have been
trimmed.
 Gov. plans to phase out
subsidies on basic food
items, replacing them
with direct payments to
the most vulnerable
social groups.
 non-oil sector expanding
spurred by new projects
in pharmaceuticals and
vehicle assembly.
Bahrain
 Fuel subsidies were cut
in January 2016 by
around 60%, &
electricity and water
tariffs for businesses
and expatriates have
been raised.

9. Oil Importers: GDP, Food Affordability and Policy Changes

10. Oil importers: Ambitious macroeconomic reforms took place in some
countries & refugee crisis constraints policy change in others
Egypt
 Applying 13% VAT
 Liberalizing the exchange rate in
Nov 2016, devaluing the
currency by 50%
 Reducing fuel subsidies,
resulting in a 60 percent surge
in fuel prices.
 Food Subsidy reform
 Expanding the coverage of the
Takaful and Karama program,
targeted conditional cash
transfers, to include 1.7 million
additional families
Jordan
 The government continue
to improving tax collection,
while attempting to
maintain a social safety
net.
 Despite the ongoing
budget deficit, wheat
bread remains fully
subsidized (at USD 0.22/kg)
and all consumers are
entitled to it. (About 90
percent of all bread sold in
the country is subsidized)
Lebanon
 The Consumer
Protection Department
at the Ministry of
Economy and Trade sets
the price of local
Lebanese flat bread.

11. Looking Forward
Increased investment can reduce hunger,
despite setbacks due to climate change

12. Looking Forward
 Improving global food systems will
have significant benefits for
MENA’s food security
 Urgency of addressing the needs of
people under conflict and during
post conflict reconstruction
 Well-designed policy changes in
countries not affected by conflicts
to help reap the benefit from
globalization
• Build on progress made for
economic integration, such
as the Pan-Arab Free Trade
Agreement (PAFTA)

13. IFPRI Arab States Program
please visit:
http://egyptssp.ifpri.info/