This document discusses trends in technology and higher education from 2013 to 2020. It predicts that mobile phones will become the primary internet access point for most people due to increasing computing power and low prices. Tablet computers and MOOCs are expected to be adopted within one year. Jobs predicted that while personal computers will still be used, most people will not need them. Touchscreens, motion controls, and mobile apps are seen as interface transformations. The document discusses many ongoing and potential impacts of technology on higher education such as open educational resources, automation impacts, and challenges of economic and demographic changes.

1. Summer 2013

2. Mark Weiser, 1988ff
 Example: "The Computer for
the Twenty-First Century"
(1991)
“The most profound technologies are
those that disappear. They weave
themselves into the fabric of
everyday life until they are
indistinguishable from it.”

6. “The mobile phone is the primary
connection tool for most people in the
world. In 2020, while "one laptop per child"
and other initiatives to bring networked
digital communications to everyone are
successful on many levels, the mobile
phone—now with significant computing
power—is the primary Internet connection
and the only one for a majority of the
people across the world, providing
information in a portable, well-connected
form at a relatively low price.”

8. "When we were an agrarian
nation, all cars were trucks
because that's what you needed
on the farms." Cars became
more popular as cities rose, and
things like power steering and
automatic transmission became

9. "PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said. "They
are still going to be around." However, he
said, only "one out of x people will need them."
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13860_3-20006526-56.html ; image via Wikipedia

10. Gartner: end of the
mouse
Touch screen (iOS)
Handhelds (Wii)
Nothing (Kinect)

12. Search
the
world

13. Multimedia lives here

14. Ecosystems

15. Combining
devices, format, services, an
d business model
 Kindle: Amazon store
 iPad: iTunes book section
 Android: Play

16. Laminating the
world digitally
Media
consumption
Interface
transformation
Media
capture
Social
connection
Web
2.0, amped

17. Microcontent increases
Social participation
increases
From consumer to user to
prosumer
Accelerando!

19. No good categorical name:
…which sometimes
indicates the future

20. Horizon
Report
2013

21. Time-to-Adoption Horizon:
One Year or Less
Massively Open Online
Courses
Tablet Computing

26. Video vs social
media
Container vs
Weinberger
Automation vs
humans

28.  Demographics
 Great Recession
 Hollowing out of
middle class
 Globalization
 Automation
 World going
online
 Complexity of
US higher
education
 Adjunctification
 K-12 reform
 Serials +
monograph
crises

29. Mobile apps
Persistent DRM
Social media’s triumph
Interface transformations
Global cyberwar and surveillance

31. Star system intensifies
Adjunctification increases (rōnin
model, King and Nanfito)
Sticker prices drop, leading to
more cuts
F2f for elites

32. http://research.studentclearinghouse.org/files/TermEnrollmentReport-Spring2013.pdf

33. Post-tsunami
Schools are rare
and distant
Information is
plentiful and
nearby

34. Open
content,
open access,
open source
• Very Web-centric

35. Global conversations
increase, filter bubble pops
More access, more
information
Lots of creativity

36. Industries collapse
Authorship mysterious
Some low quality tech
(videoconf.)
Some higher costs
More malware + less privacy

37. Information prices drop
Faculty creativity, flexibility
grow
IT “ “ “
Academic content
unleashed on the world

38. Tech challenges
Outsourcing and offshoring
PLE beats LMS
Crowdsourcing faculty work
Information literacy central

39. http://www.flickr.com/photos/thales/2782129254/

41. MOOC provider goes bust
Media buzz reverses

42. Economic growth returns to US
(energy, medical, nanotech vs
world)
17-22-year-old residential niche
revitalized (K-12 failure)
Full-time faculty stabilize (AAUP-
ALA strike)

43. Higher education landscape:
Supplemental rather than
transformative tech
Logistical instead of pedagogical
tech
Academics include tech in old
structures (classes, publication

44. Bryan Alexander
http://bryanalexander.org
Bryan on Twitter
http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander