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Methods comparison
and challenges for
accounting systems
Erin Sills
North Carolina State University
Center for International Forestry Research
monitor forest change and associated emissions
measure of what happens with REDD+
Methods comparison
Accounting/ MRV
• Compares this measure
to an ex ante forecast of
forest change under
BAU (“baseline”)
Causal impact evaluation
• Compares this measure
to ex post observation of
forest change in
comparable areas under
BAU (“counterfactual”)
REDD+
Area
Methods comparison
Accounting/ MRV
• Ex ante forecast
establishes a
performance benchmark
• Carbon credits are
generated when
emissions are below the
benchmark
Causal impact evaluation
• Ex post observation
establishes what would
have happened given
other policy and
economic conditions
• Feedback to investors
and policy-makers
Challenges for accounting system
Accounting/ MRV
• Ex ante forecast
Causal impact evaluation
• Ex post observation
X
Challenges for accounting system
Accounting/ MRV
• Ex ante forecast
Causal impact evaluation
• Ex post observation
X
Challenges for accounting system
Accounting/ MRV
• Ex ante forecast
• Carbon credits
Causal impact evaluation
• Ex post observation
• Feedback
THINKING beyond the canopy
REDD+ area
(Intervention)
Before After
Forest change
After
Forest change
Before
CREDIT
THINKING beyond the canopy
Comparison
(Control)
REDD+ area
(Intervention)
Before After
Forest change
After
Forest change
After
Forest change
Before
Forest change
Before
THINKING beyond the canopy
Comparison
(Control)
REDD+ area
(Intervention)
Before After
IMPACT (BACI)
Forest change
After
Forest change
After
Forest change
Before
Forest change
Before
CIFOR Global Comparative Study
• Six countries, 23 sites, 150 villages (matched on drivers of forest change)
• BACI: 2010-2011 / 2013-2014
• Based on Hansen Global
Forest Change data
• Performance looks better
when
• Measured at village level
• Based on comparison to
controls
• Careful selection of
control areas reveals the
impact of REDD+
Bos et al. 2017 ERL
CIFOR Global Comparative Study
THINKING beyond the canopy
Comparison
(Control)
REDD+ area
(Intervention)
Before After
IMPACT (BACI)
Forest change
After
Forest change
After
Forest change
Before
Forest change
Before
1) Matching underlying drivers of forest change
2) Synthetic control: weighted combination that
matches underlying drivers of forest change
and trajectory of forest change
Thank you.
sills@ncsu.edu

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Methods comparison and challenges for accounting systems ​

  • 1. Methods comparison and challenges for accounting systems Erin Sills North Carolina State University Center for International Forestry Research
  • 2. monitor forest change and associated emissions measure of what happens with REDD+ Methods comparison Accounting/ MRV • Compares this measure to an ex ante forecast of forest change under BAU (“baseline”) Causal impact evaluation • Compares this measure to ex post observation of forest change in comparable areas under BAU (“counterfactual”) REDD+ Area
  • 3. Methods comparison Accounting/ MRV • Ex ante forecast establishes a performance benchmark • Carbon credits are generated when emissions are below the benchmark Causal impact evaluation • Ex post observation establishes what would have happened given other policy and economic conditions • Feedback to investors and policy-makers
  • 4. Challenges for accounting system Accounting/ MRV • Ex ante forecast Causal impact evaluation • Ex post observation X
  • 5. Challenges for accounting system Accounting/ MRV • Ex ante forecast Causal impact evaluation • Ex post observation X
  • 6. Challenges for accounting system Accounting/ MRV • Ex ante forecast • Carbon credits Causal impact evaluation • Ex post observation • Feedback
  • 7. THINKING beyond the canopy REDD+ area (Intervention) Before After Forest change After Forest change Before CREDIT
  • 8. THINKING beyond the canopy Comparison (Control) REDD+ area (Intervention) Before After Forest change After Forest change After Forest change Before Forest change Before
  • 9. THINKING beyond the canopy Comparison (Control) REDD+ area (Intervention) Before After IMPACT (BACI) Forest change After Forest change After Forest change Before Forest change Before
  • 10. CIFOR Global Comparative Study • Six countries, 23 sites, 150 villages (matched on drivers of forest change) • BACI: 2010-2011 / 2013-2014
  • 11. • Based on Hansen Global Forest Change data • Performance looks better when • Measured at village level • Based on comparison to controls • Careful selection of control areas reveals the impact of REDD+ Bos et al. 2017 ERL CIFOR Global Comparative Study
  • 12. THINKING beyond the canopy Comparison (Control) REDD+ area (Intervention) Before After IMPACT (BACI) Forest change After Forest change After Forest change Before Forest change Before 1) Matching underlying drivers of forest change 2) Synthetic control: weighted combination that matches underlying drivers of forest change and trajectory of forest change