The document discusses the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) involving the US, Japan, Australia, and India, highlighting its history and evolution from its inception in 2007 to its recent revival in 2017. It touches on geopolitical tensions, security concerns, and the role of China, as well as the Quad's adaptation to new global challenges like COVID-19. The text concludes with observations on the Quad's potential future and its impact on regional security dynamics.

1. The Meaninglessness of the
QUAD
Dr Sarma VANGALA
CEO
Metastrategy, Inc
Toronto, CANADA

2. Workshop on
“Geopolitical issues facing the Indo-Pacific region in the third
decade”
Osaka University and Royal Canadian Military College October 1st 2021.

3. What is the QUAD?
Quadrilateral Security Dialogue
• Strategic dialogue between US, Japan,Australia and India;
• Initiated in 2007 by Abe {JP}, supported by Cheney {US}, Howard {AU}
and Singh {IN};
• In parallel with the dialogue was a joint military exercise called Exercise
Malabar;
• Maintained by talks between member countries.

4. Inauspicious Start
• Established in 2007
• Rudd {AU} wanted to align AU closer to China and hence
withdrew AU from QUAD in 2008.
• QUAD implodes
• R.I.P. QUAD {1.0} {2007-2008}

5. Friction among Friends
• AU, initially, refused to sell Uranium to IN;
• Unofficially, IN, citing US presence in Iraq,
hostility to Iran and ‘attempts to encircle China’
as fundamentally destabilising Asia and refused
to host US naval vessels in Kochi or Goa.
• Hence, no QUAD {version 2} for a decade.

6. QUAD {2.0}
• At 2017 ASEAN,Turnbull {AU},Trump {US},
Modi {IN} and Abe {JP} agree to reviveQUAD.
• India had not been keen to restart QUAD
since she felt it ‘anatgonises’ China
• Several border skirmishes and 2017 standoff
convinced her otherwise.

7. Wary Onlookers
• Sri Lanka raised concerns about the
militarisation of Indian Ocean.
• China warns Bangladesh not to show interest
in QUAD.

8. Scope Creep
• Roots in disaster relief following 2004 tsunami;
• Current communiques state, “ to support free,
open, prosperous, rules-based and inclusive
maritime order in the East and South China Sea”
as “The Spirit of the QUAD”.
• India insists Malabar and QUAD are separate

9. Malabar

10. Scope Creep
• Roots in disaster relief following 2004 tsunami;
• Current communiques state, “ to support free, open, prosperous,
rules-based and inclusive Indo-Pacific” as QUAD’s mission.
• India insists Malabar and QUAD are separate.
• Blue Dot Infrastructure Initiative to counter China’s B & RI
established.
• Blue Dot promotes infrastructure and sustainability {India not a
party}.

12. Is QUAD an Asian NATO?
Secretary of State Pompeo in 2020 met with the
members to discuss converting QUAD into an
Asian NATO.
Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and China voice
concerns.

13. Back to the Start
QUAD was established to assist during the
Tsunami
In 2021, QUAD is pledging to help with the
economic and health impacts of COVID-19
No progress since India, a major manufacturer of
vaccines, has embargoed vaccine stocks.

14. Crowded Field
• Two-plus-Two {Defence and Foreign Ministers}
meetings:
JP and US March 16, 2021
JP and IN April 2022

15. Whosoever commands the sea commands the
trade.
Sir Walter Raleigh

16. Crowded Field
• FR and UK sailed warships through South China Sea
• CA sailed her frigate HMCS Regina throughTaiwan Strait
{June 2020} and HMCS Calgary sailed near Spratly Islands
{March 2021}
• EU, FR, DE and NL formulating their combined Indo-Pacific
Visions.
• Trilateral formed with IN, IT and JP mirroring QUAD
• UK dispatched an aircraft strike group near JP

17. New Entrant
AUKUS

18. QUAD
• So, what is the use of QUAD?

19. First meeting of QUAD

20. Deteriorating China
Relationships
{JP} Chinese incursions around islands Japan claims as hers;
{AU} Boycott ofAustralian wines;
{US} US farm products on boycott list;
{IN} Parts of India’s Arunachal Pradesh claimed by Chinese and
military build up on India’s border.

21. Second meeting of QUAD

22. The Elephant NOT in the Room

24. The Weak Link

25. Bigots create opportunity
• Indian racial bigotry goes unpunished;
• Racial strife is divisive;
• Neighbouring countries are non-Hindu-majority
nations and
• Neighbours are beholden to China
So, can India be a counterweight to China ?

26. Possible FutureTrajectory of
QUAD
• QUAD will focus on security but will not take, as
a group, aggressive action
• Xi will pressure each member separately and
Chinese hard nationalists will not make any
maritime concessions
• UK, CA, SG, FR, KR and possiblyVN will align
themselves with QUAD in terms of security

27. SarmaVANGALA, Ph D
Chief Executive Officer
Metastrategy, Inc.
• SarmaVangala is a corporate consultant
specialising in Strategy, M&A and Business
Transformation
• Based inToronto, CANADA
• BTech (IIT(M)); PhD (Exon.); Professional Engineer
• sarma.vangala@metastrategyinc.com

28. Dynamics