The conflation of personal interest and national interest drives all decisions from the Kremlin.

1. Putin’s War Cabinet
Conflates Personal Interest
with National Interests
Dr Sarma VANGALA
CEO
Metastrategy, Inc
Toronto, CANADA

2. Deriving Foreign Policy
Elsewhere
• Dispassionate strategy
• Interagency debates
• Modelling war games
• Intelligence gathering
• Endless ‘what if’ debates
• Pros vs ConsTabulated
Result is War Cabinet

3. Putin’s Foreign Policy
• Driven by cold intelligence
• What will benefit the ‘elite’ the greatest
• Ideas and interests of a small group of long-
time lieutenants drive policy

4. War Cabinet
• Vladimir PUTIN
• Age 70 yrs
• President of Russia
• Worked at KGB on foreign
intelligence
• Has a keen interest in poisons
• Reputed to be the world’s richest
person

5. War Cabinet
• Nikolai PATRUSHEV
• Age 70 yrs
• Heads Security Council of Russia
• Worked at KGB from 1975 to 2008
• Approved the killing of
whistleblower Alexander
LITVINENKO
• On US’ sanctions list
• Son is Minister of Agriculture

6. War Cabinet
• Sergey SHOIGU
• Age 67 yrs
• Minister of Defence
• Under criminal investigation for
forming ‘Illegal Military Groups’ in
eastern Ukraine
• Revealed by Alexei NAVALNYI that
General SHOIGU owns a $12 Million
mansion on the outskirts of
Moscow.

7. War Cabinet
• Alexander BORTNIKOV
• Age 71 yrs
• Heads FSB {the successor to KGB}
• Joined KGB in 1975
• Involved in the killing of Alexander
LITVINENKO and poisoning of
NAVALNYI
• On US’ sanctions list
• Is ‘Key Political Enforcer’

8. War Cabinet
• Sergei NARYSHKIN
• Age 68 yrs
• Director of Foreign Intelligence
Service
• On US’ sanctions list
• Revealed that more than half his
economics dissertation was
plagiarised.

9. Commonalities
• All are around 70 yrs old;
• The collapse of the Soviet Union was the defining
event of their adult life;
• They have come from the intelligence branch of KGB
• They are siloviki, i.e., entered politics through the
security apparatus KBB, FSB, GRU etc. Also known as
securocrat.

10. NOT on War Cabinet
• Sergey LAVROV
• Age 72 yrs
• Minister of Foreign Affairs
• Also fluent in French, English,
Sinhalese and a Maldives dialect
• A polished diplomat.

11. Collapse of the Soviet Union

12. KGB and FSB

13. Common Binding Philosophy
• TheWest is in decline;
• American-led order is in crisis;
• Democracy is a failed cause;
• Promotion of tolerance, multiculturalism and respect
for the rights of minorities spur internal conflicts and
• Keep America off balance so as to ensure Russia can
enhance its national interests.

14. Sanctions help the Elites
• Owing to sanctions, import substitutions have
generated large inflow of funds to industries controlled
by proxies of these men including Rostec which is run by
Putin’s friend, Sergey CHEMEZOV;
• Owing to ban on food imports, Russia’s agribusinesses
have grown spectacularly and this sector is the
responsibility of PATRUSHEV’s son Dmitry who is Putin’s
agriculture minister.

16. Rostec
• A large industrial conglomerate
encompassing 64 companies
• Weapons, cars and truck manufacturing,
pharma, banking, construction, cybersecurity,
amber extraction etc.

17. Overarching Drive
• Russia is in a constant state of siege
• Thus, the security apparatus is now the most
important pillar of the regime.
Since these men are from the security
framework they have cemented their grip on
the country.

18. SarmaVANGALA, Ph D
Chief Executive Officer
Metastrategy, Inc.
• SarmaVangala is a corporate consultant
specialising in Strategy, M&A and Business
Transformation
• Based inToronto, CANADA
• BTech (IIT(M)); PhD (Exon.); Professional Engineer
• sarma.vangala@metastrategyinc.com

19. Dynamics