Regions of Indonesia that experienced larger reductions in import tariffs through trade liberalization saw larger decreases in poverty, increases in average real income of the bottom 20%, and reductions in inequality. The study uses a panel data set of 26 Indonesian provinces from 1977-2012 and regression analysis to examine the impact of regional exposure to trade liberalization on poverty rates, income distribution, and inequality measures while controlling for other economic and social factors. Overall, the results suggest that trade liberalization had a positive impact on poverty reduction and inequality in Indonesia.
The Go-West policies are a consequence of China focus on eastern development since 1978. The disparities between Western and eastern China should be regulated to ensure China’s harmonized economic development.
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI)inventionjournals
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Humanities and Social Science. IJHSSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Humanities and Social Science, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online
Concept of National Income with GDP GNP NNP& NDPAnkit Singh
It is the detailed study of National Income in a macro economics of a country with the methods of its measurement and concepts related to it like Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, Net Domestic Product, Net National Product.
The Go-West policies are a consequence of China focus on eastern development since 1978. The disparities between Western and eastern China should be regulated to ensure China’s harmonized economic development.
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI)inventionjournals
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Humanities and Social Science. IJHSSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Humanities and Social Science, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online
Concept of National Income with GDP GNP NNP& NDPAnkit Singh
It is the detailed study of National Income in a macro economics of a country with the methods of its measurement and concepts related to it like Gross Domestic Product, Gross National Product, Net Domestic Product, Net National Product.
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI)inventionjournals
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Humanities and Social Science. IJHSSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Humanities and Social Science, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
Associate Research Professor, Conor O'Toole and Research Professor, Kieran McQuinn presented an overview of the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2021 to the media on Wednesday, 6 October 2021 ahead of the document's publication on Thursday, 7 October 2021.
Despite the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, both domestic and foreign sources of growth have contributed to the Irish economy’s robust performance in 2021. As public health measures are eased considerably, we anticipate a return to more normal economic activity by the end of the year. For the present year, our expectation is that Irish GDP will grow by 12.6 per cent. The double-digit growth rate is mainly due to multinational related activities, in particular strong export figures. Modified domestic demand, a more accurate measure of underlying economic activity, is expected to grow by 7 per cent in the present year. Into 2022, we expect a continued strong performance of the economy, with GDP set to increase by 7 per cent.
The recovery from COVID-19 has contributed to inflationary pressures in many advanced economies stemming mainly from global supply chain problems and energy prices. While the current expectation is that these factors are largely temporary, further domestic inflationary risks remain relating to the rapidity of the recovery in household spending as well as how price changes feed into wage expectations. At this juncture, our expectation is that inflationary pressures will peak in Q4 2021 and abate through 2022. We expect an inflation rate of 2.3 per cent in 2021 and 2.5 per cent in 2022.
The monthly unemployment rate continues to fall as public health restrictions are eased. Consequently, we expect the unemployment rate to fall to 9 per cent in Q4 2021 and average 16.3 for 2021 overall. Unemployment is set to fall further into 2022 and will average just over 7 per cent for the year. However, we do not expect to see the unemployment rate fall back to pre-COVID rates until late 2023 at the earliest.
The significant reduction in unemployment along with strong underlying growth in taxation receipts has contributed to a smaller deficit in 2021 than expected. The eased pressure on the public finances comes at a time when significant investments will have to be made in the years ahead to tackle issues such as housing, climate change, and healthcare. Making these investments, while ensuring the domestic economy does not overheat, will be a key challenge for fiscal policy over the medium-term.
The publication can be read here: https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-autumn-2021
The press release accompanying the report can be read here: https://www.esri.ie/news/strong-exports-and-multinationals-contributing-to-double-digit-gdp-growth-however-challenges
For more from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), visit our website: www.esri.ie
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI)inventionjournals
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of Humanities and Social Science. IJHSSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Humanities and Social Science, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
Associate Research Professor, Conor O'Toole and Research Professor, Kieran McQuinn presented an overview of the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2021 to the media on Wednesday, 6 October 2021 ahead of the document's publication on Thursday, 7 October 2021.
Despite the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, both domestic and foreign sources of growth have contributed to the Irish economy’s robust performance in 2021. As public health measures are eased considerably, we anticipate a return to more normal economic activity by the end of the year. For the present year, our expectation is that Irish GDP will grow by 12.6 per cent. The double-digit growth rate is mainly due to multinational related activities, in particular strong export figures. Modified domestic demand, a more accurate measure of underlying economic activity, is expected to grow by 7 per cent in the present year. Into 2022, we expect a continued strong performance of the economy, with GDP set to increase by 7 per cent.
The recovery from COVID-19 has contributed to inflationary pressures in many advanced economies stemming mainly from global supply chain problems and energy prices. While the current expectation is that these factors are largely temporary, further domestic inflationary risks remain relating to the rapidity of the recovery in household spending as well as how price changes feed into wage expectations. At this juncture, our expectation is that inflationary pressures will peak in Q4 2021 and abate through 2022. We expect an inflation rate of 2.3 per cent in 2021 and 2.5 per cent in 2022.
The monthly unemployment rate continues to fall as public health restrictions are eased. Consequently, we expect the unemployment rate to fall to 9 per cent in Q4 2021 and average 16.3 for 2021 overall. Unemployment is set to fall further into 2022 and will average just over 7 per cent for the year. However, we do not expect to see the unemployment rate fall back to pre-COVID rates until late 2023 at the earliest.
The significant reduction in unemployment along with strong underlying growth in taxation receipts has contributed to a smaller deficit in 2021 than expected. The eased pressure on the public finances comes at a time when significant investments will have to be made in the years ahead to tackle issues such as housing, climate change, and healthcare. Making these investments, while ensuring the domestic economy does not overheat, will be a key challenge for fiscal policy over the medium-term.
The publication can be read here: https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-autumn-2021
The press release accompanying the report can be read here: https://www.esri.ie/news/strong-exports-and-multinationals-contributing-to-double-digit-gdp-growth-however-challenges
For more from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), visit our website: www.esri.ie
Mauro Pisu - The effect of public sector efficiency on firm-level productivit...OECD CFE
Presentation by Mauro Pisu, OECD at the OECD Workshop on Spatial Dimensions of Productivity, 28-29 March 2019, Bolzano.
More info: https://oe.cd/GFPBolzano2019
This paper investigates the relationship between tax structures and economic growth in a panel of developed and developing countries, using the new ICTD GRD. It sought to understand the effects of tax structure on GDP growth, since many previous studies have only focused on OECD countries.
It is also motivated by the IMF Policy prescription (IMF 2011), of on-going shift from reliance on trade taxes to VAT, especially in low income countries. It further sought to understand the implications of such structural shifts with studies showing that revenue recovery following trade liberalisation has been poor in low- and middle- income countries (Baunsgaard & Keen, 2010).
Results suggest that shifts away from trade and consumption toward income taxes have had a negative impact on GDP growth rates in developing countries. This negative effect is of greater magnitude through personal income taxes (PIC). Consequently, this study provides new evidence of potentially harmful effect of trade liberalisation on the GDP growth rates. The study also gives a clear picture of low tax reliance on indirect taxes between in low-income countries.
Revenue neutral shifts away from trade taxes to consumption taxes have no negative effect on growth. However, revenue neutral shifts towards income, specifically personal income taxes are potentially harmful to GDP growth rates. Key findings hold following the exclusion of resource-rich countries and after controlling for degree of openness.
ERIA's Chief Economist Prof Fukunari Kimura gave a presentation on inter-regional trade integration during the second session of the High-level Symposium on Intra-ASEAN Trade and Investment: Enhancing Intra-ASEAN Trade and Investment for a Cohesive and Responsive ASEAN held in Hanoi on 10 January 2020. Prof Kimura showed how intra-ASEAN trade flows are at good and stable level but nevertheless there is room for expanding these flows. He also explained how trade is changing in ASEAN and at global level: from more traditional forms of trade to trade linkages enabled by international economic networks and driven by digital technologies.
Estonia: Wheelchairs - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2025IndexBox Marketing
IndexBox has just published its report: "Estonia: Wheelchairs - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2025". The report provides an in-depth analysis of the wheelchair market in Estonia. It presents the latest data of the market size and volume, European production, exports and imports, price dynamics and turnover in the industry. The report shows the sales data, allowing you to identify the key drivers and restraints. You can find here a strategic analysis of key factors influencing the market. Forecasts illustrate how the market will be transformed in the medium term. Profiles of the leading companies and brands are also included.
The Economy and Demography
Challenges and Opportunities for the oneNS Coalition Thomas Storring, NS Department of Finance and Treasury Board, 2014-09-16
HLEG thematic workshop on Measuring Inequalities of Income and Wealth, Andrea...StatsCommunications
Presentation at the HLEG thematic workshop on Measuring Inequalities of Income and Wealth, 15-16 September 2015, Berlin, Germany, http://oe.cd/hleg-workshop-inequalities-income-and-wealth
The issue of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been receiving phenomenal attention from many governments. Bangladesh is not lagging behind from it. Economic development for the developing countries like Bangladesh is largely dependent on FDI. The major challenges for the host country are to ensure an eye-catching and conducive investment climate to foreign investors for FDI inflow. In recent years, Bangladesh has been devoting efforts for attracting FDI offering a lot of lucrative incentives and benefits. Though attempts taken to increase FDI inflow, the result achieved is not appreciable enough for Bangladesh. This term paper will portray the FDI inflow since 1995 and finds out causes and reasons of low-inflow based on data available in web. Here different indices have been shown graphically which have substantial impact on investment decision of foreign investors. Recent indices are illustrated and briefly analyzed here collected from Doing Business Report 2011, Human Development Report 2010, Bangladesh Economic Review 2011, Major economic indicators: monthly update (volume 06/2010), Bangladesh Bank and Global Competitiveness Report by Center for Policy Dialogue. Export data and information on EPZs have also been stated here importantly. Incentives for foreign investors offered by Bangladesh Government and competitive advantages of doing business in Bangladesh are two very important parts stated in this paper. It also finds out the impediments and highlighted prospects for FDI in Bangladesh and provides some recommendations for its enhancements.
The strategy of structural reforms in Uzbekistan is prepared to enhance the effectiveness of development efforts towards supporting the Republic of Uzbekistan in its aspirations to become an idustrialized upper middle-income country by the year 2030 through policy dialogue and development of a long-term strategy.
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
Trade liberalisation, povery and equality in Indonesia
1. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia Yessi Vadila
Arndt-Corden Department of Economics Crawford School of Public Policy College of Asia and Pacific
Crawford PhD Conference 2014: BigData, BigOpportunity 19 November 2014
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
2. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion Research question
How did regional exposure to trade liberalization affect poverty and inequality in Indonesia? Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
3. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Source: Indonesian Tariff Books and UNCTAD/TRAINS
Trade liberalization in Indonesia, 1977- 2012 Reduction in MFN tariff rates
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
4. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Source: BPS
Poverty rate in Indonesia
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
5. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Source: Alatas, World Bank 2013
Inequality in Indonesia
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
6. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Source: Alatas, World Bank 2013 Gini: 2012, Povrate 2011
Inequality in Indonesia
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
7. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion Theory and global evidence
Trade liberalization and poverty Labor Markets Channel Trade policy and unemployment Economy-wide changes in the wages of unskilled labor Industry Wages Trade policy and compliance with labor market standards Child Labor Household Consumption and Production Relative price changes: as buyer vs seller Evidence on poverty effects .., Mixed for Latin American countries (Goldberg and Pavcnik 2007) .., Potentially harmful poverty effects in India (Topalova 2010) .., Market access beneficial in Vietnam (McCaig 2011)
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
8. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion Theory and global evidence
Trade liberalization and Inequality Increase of the Skill Premium Changes in the Returns to Skill-Intensive Occupations Stolper-Samuelson Effects Relocation of Intermediate-Goods Production Skill-Biased Technological Change Changes in Industry Wage Premiums Changes in the size of the informal sector Evidence on inequality effects
-
No significant effects, mixed countries (Berg & Nilson 2010)
-
Reduced poverty, but higher inequality in India (Jha, 2000)
-
Lower rate of poverty reduction & no effects on inequality in India (Topalova, 2005)
-
Higher inequality in Argentina (Galiani& Sanguinetti 2003)
-
Differ effects for different country groups (Celik& Basdas 2010)
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
9. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion Empirical evidence for Indonesia
... Equalise wage (Suryahadi 2003) ... Productivity gains for firms that import inputs (Amiti and Konings 2007) ... Improved working conditiond (Robertson et al. 2009) ... Reduced industrial skill premia (Amiti and Cameron 2012) ... Child labor decreased (Kis-Katos and Sparrow 2011) ... Poverty reduced more in exposed districts (Kis-Katos and Sparrow 2011)
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
10. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion Our main findings
Regions that were exposed more to trade liberalization experienced a larger reduction in absolute poverty a larger decrease in average real income of bottom 20% a larger reduction in absolute and relative inequality Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
11. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Data Measuring regional trade liberalization Estimation approach
Sample and data sources
... Sample: .., 26 provinces (out of 33 currently), crosswalk for initial period... Regional trade data: .., Tariff measures: Indonesian Customs Tariff Book & UNCTAD- TRAINS .., Initial regional labour market structure (Census 1976) .., National Input Output (IO) table, 1975 (BPS) ... Outcome variables: .., Poverty rates (poverty headcount poverty gap, (Susenas) .., Average real income of the bottom 20%, (Susenas) .., Gini coefficients, (BPS, various publication) .., Share of the top and bottom 10% and 20%, (Susenas)
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
12. Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
Change in Tariffs, 1977-2012 Relative to initial levels
Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Data Measuring regional trade liberalization Estimation approach
1112131415161718313233343551525361626364717273748194 -15-10-50Change in tariff 1977-2012 0510151976 tariff
13. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Data Measuring regional trade liberalization Estimation approach
Province level tariff exposure
... Captures province level exposure to import tariffs ... . . . for province p, year t, sector s (S = 16)
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇= 퐿퐿퐿퐿,1980 퐿퐿퐿,1980 푥푥 푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇 ℎ푡퐻퐻 ℎ=1
14. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Data Measuring regional trade liberalization Estimation approach
Distinguishing between output and input tariffs
... . . . for province p, year t, sector s and j (S , J = 50)
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
푂푂푂푂푂푂푂푂 푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇= 푄푄푄푄푄,1980 푄푄푄,1980 푥푥 푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇 ℎ푡푆푆 푠=1
퐼퐼퐼퐼퐼 푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇 푝ቀ푄푄푄푄푄,1980 푄푄푄,1980 푆푆 푠=1 푥푥 푀푀푀푀푀,1980 푀푀푀,1980 푥푥 푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇푇 푗 퐽퐽 푗=1 ቁ
15. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Data Measuring regional trade liberalization Estimation approach
Fixed effects panel regressions
... . . . for province p, year t, region r ... Xpt : GRDPp, agric., manu. & mining value added, years of schooling, infant mortality rate, governmen expenditure, share of gov. quality, political diversion, participation rate in election. ... Ip: initial sectoral labor shares, initial rural share ... 36 years, 1977-2012
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
ypt = α + β · Δ Tariffpt + Δ X'pt + I'p θ + λrt + Δ εpt
16. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Poverty Inequality Robustness
Tariff reductions and poverty Tariff coefficients from regressions of poverty measures (P0)
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Labour weighted tariff
1.626***
1.388***
1.214**
1.381**
s.e.
(0.358)
(0.301)
(0.496)
(0.539)
Manufacturing Output Tariff
0.393***
0.357***
0.285***
0.319***
s.e.
(0.090)
(0.076)
(0.099)
(0.104)
Manufacturing Input Tariff
0.639***
0.527***
0.402**
0.513***
s.e.
(0.120)
(0.107)
(0.166)
(0.161)
N
910
876
876
823
Year-island dummies
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Time variant controls
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Initial labour force and rural population shares
No
No
Yes
Yes
Dependent variable 1976
No
No
No
Yes
17. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Tariff reductions and poverty Tariff coefficients from regressions of Average real expenditure of the bottom 20%
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Labour weighted tariff
-0.188
0.059
0.795***
0.935***
s.e.
(0.212)
(0.149)
(0.230)
(0.217)
Manufacturing Output Tariff
-0.037
-0.010
0.087*
0.108**
s.e.
(0.035)
(0.037)
(0.050)
(0.048)
Manufacturing Input Tariff
-0.131***
-0.105**
0.061
0.143
s.e.
(0.050)
(0.047)
(0.096)
(0.090)
N
832
804
804
754
Year-island dummies
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Time variant controls
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Initial labour force and rural population shares
No
No
Yes
Yes
Dependent variable 1976
No
No
No
Yes
Poverty Inequality Robustness
18. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Tariff reductions and Inequality Tariff coefficients from regressions of Gini
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Labour weighted tariff
0.101
0.375
1.217**
1.082**
s.e.
(0.446)
(0.297)
(0.490)
(0.498)
Manufacturing Output Tariff
0.037
-0.003
0.153**
0.133*
s.e.
(0.063)
(0.061)
(0.074)
(0.075)
Manufacturing Input Tariff
-0.067
-0.116
0.108
0.101
s.e.
(0.079)
(0.079)
(0.070)
(0.076)
N
910
876
876
823
Year-island dummies
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Time variant controls
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Initial labour force and rural population shares
No
No
Yes
Yes
Dependent variable 1976
No
No
No
Yes
Poverty Inequality Robustness
19. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Tariff reductions and Inequality Tariff coefficients from regressions of Top 10% share of expenditure
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Labour weighted tariff
0.406
0.740***
1.226**
1.008**
s.e.
(0.399)
(0.197)
(0.499)
(0.508)
Manufacturing Output Tariff
-0.019
0.010
-0.040
-0.024
s.e.
(0.144)
(0.117)
(0.137)
(0.147)
Manufacturing Input Tariff
-0.019
0.040
-0.039
0.015
s.e.
(0.192)
(0.179)
(0.189)
(0.193)
N
910
902
902
867
Year-island dummies
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Time variant controls
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Initial labour force and rural population shares
No
No
Yes
Yes
Dependent variable 1976
No
No
No
Yes
Poverty Inequality Robustness
20. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Tariff reductions and Inequality Tariff coefficients from regressions of Top 20% share of expenditure
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Labour weighted tariff
0.429
0.700***
1.373**
1.109**
s.e.
(0.411)
(0.199)
(0.538)
(0.548)
Manufacturing Output Tariff
-0.006
0.011
-0.054
-0.046
s.e.
(0.141)
(0.116)
(0.138)
(0.151)
Manufacturing Input Tariff
0.008
0.050
-0.050
0.011
s.e.
(0.191)
(0.179)
(0.196)
(0.204)
N
910
902
902
867
Year-island dummies
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Time variant controls
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Initial labour force and rural population shares
No
No
Yes
Yes
Dependent variable 1976
No
No
No
Yes
Poverty Inequality Robustness
21. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Tariff reductions and Inequality Tariff coefficients from regressions of Least 10% share of expenditure
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Labour weighted tariff
-0.012
-0.040
-0.158**
-0.127*
s.e.
(0.049)
(0.029)
(0.070)
(0.070)
Manufacturing Output Tariff
-0.002
-0.000
0.009
0.012
s.e.
(0.010)
(0.008)
(0.012)
(0.012)
Manufacturing Input Tariff
-0.009
-0.007
0.011
0.007
s.e.
(0.016)
(0.011)
(0.023)
(0.023)
N
910
902
902
867
R2
0.360
0.312
0.325
0.372
Year-island dummies
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Time variant controls
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Initial labour force and rural population shares
No
No
Yes
Yes
Dependent variable 1976
No
No
No
Yes
Poverty Inequality Robustness
22. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Tariff reductions and Inequality Tariff coefficients from regressions of Least 20% share of expenditure
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Labour weighted tariff
-0.063
-0.115**
-0.414***
-0.327**
s.e.
(0.096)
(0.056)
(0.145)
(0.145)
Manufacturing Output Tariff
-0.010
-0.005
0.011
0.015
s.e.
(0.020)
(0.019)
(0.026)
(0.027)
Manufacturing Input Tariff
-0.017
-0.010
0.019
0.007
s.e.
(0.031)
(0.022)
(0.045)
(0.045)
N
910
902
902
867
R2
0.333
0.270
0.290
0.340
Year-island dummies
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Time variant controls
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Initial labour force and rural population shares
No
No
Yes
Yes
Dependent variable 1976
No
No
No
Yes
Poverty Inequality Robustness
23. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Further robustness checks
Different lags
Controlling for crisis effects
Divide sample
including dummy crisis
Placebo test : recent changes of dependents regressed on future tariff changes The results are robust.. Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
Poverty Inequality Robustness
24. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion
Poverty Inequality Robustness
Potential problem
- Endogeneity of Tariff In progress.. Preliminary findings:
Tariff76, rubber price, oil price and political power as instruments
using 2SLS method
Same effects, larger size
Pass first & post-est. tests
The key message remains.. Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia
25. Introduction Data and empirical approach Results Conclusion Conclusion
... Poverty and inequality reduced by more in province with larger exposure to tariff reductions ... Bottom quintile average real expenditure reduced by more in province with larger exposure to tariff reductions Need to examine the channels..
Trade liberalization, poverty and inequality in Indonesia