"Changing climate - Is resource efficiency a way out of crisis?" All countries must take more action. Otherwise the climate change will continue steadily. As a result, there is a growing risk that different types of crisis and the struggle for increasingly scarce natural resources, such as clean water, will become more common. Could resource efficiency boost growth at country level and, in this way, prevent conflicts? And what would be the role of resource efficiency in the recovery from conflicts? What are the challenges and opportunities of the bioeconomy in the slowing down of climate change? Very topical morning seminar in Joensuu Eastern Finland pointed out the relationship between resource efficiency, development and conflicts on the one hand and the relationship between climate change and bioeconomy on the other. Speeches were given by Doctor Rajendra K. Pachauri, Chairman of IPCC and Heidi Hautala, Finland’s Minister for International Development. The seminar, organised by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, TERI and the Nordic office of TERI, served as an introduction to the Koli Forum that will take place between 17 and 19 September. More information is also available at http://koliforum.fi/

1. Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute
Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
1
R. K. Pachauri
12 August 2013
Joensuu, Finland
Climate Change and Bio-economy –
Challenges and Opportunities

2. The tragedy of the commons develops in this way. Picture a
pasture open to all. It is to be expected that each herdsman
will try to keep as many cattle as possible on the commons.
Such an arrangement may work reasonably satisfactorily for
centuries because tribal wars, poaching, and disease keep
the numbers of both man and beast well below the carrying
capacity of the land. Finally, however, comes the day of
reckoning, that is, the day when the long-desired goal of
social stability becomes a reality. At this point, the inherent
logic of the commons remorselessly generates tragedy.
-Garrett Hardin

3. In the 1970s, Georgescu-Roegen coined the
term bioeconomics for a new approach in
economics: "The term is intended to make us
bear in mind continuously the biological origin
of the economic process and thus spotlight the
problem of mankind's existence with a limited
store of accessible resources, unevenly located
and unequally appropriated"

4. Sustainable development
4
“Sustainable development
is development that meets
the needs of the present
without compromising the
ability of future generations
to meet their own needs.”
Source : Brundtland Report, 1987, UN

5. 5
125,000 years ago…
 The polar regions were
significantly warmer
than present for an
extended period
 … which led to
reductions in polar ice
volume and sea level
rise of 4 to 6 m .
Palaeoclimatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last
half century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years.
Warming Of The Climate System Is Unequivocal
Source : IPCC

6. Understanding climate change
6
Causes of change
 Global GHG emissions due to human activities
have grown since pre-industrial times, with an
increase of 70% between 1970 and 2004
 CO2 annual emissions grew by about 80%
between 1970 and 2004
Most of the observed increase in temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due
to the increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations
Source : IPCC

7. Global anthropogenic GHG emissions from 1970 to 2004
7Source : IPCC

8. Some key findings of the SREX
Source: IPCC
Changes in extreme events:
 heavy precipitation
 Warm/cold daily temperature
extremes
 Heat waves
 Sea level rise
Some scenarios show that a 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-2 year event
by the end of the 21st century in most regions.

9. 9
Abrupt And Irreversible Impacts
 Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply meters of sea
level rise, major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying
areas
 20-30% of species are likely to be at risk of extinction if increases in
warming exceed 1.5-2.5°C
 Large scale and persistent changes in Meridional Overturning
Circulation would have impacts on marine ecosystem
productivity, fisheries, ocean CO2 uptake and terrestrial vegetation
Source: IPCC
Abrupt And Irreversible Impacts

10. Fatalities are higher in developing countries
10Source : IPCC
From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred in
developing countries

11. 11
Adaptation and Mitigation
“Neither adaptation nor
mitigation alone can avoid
all climate change impacts;
however, they can
complement each other and
together can significantly
reduce the risks of climate
change”
- IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report
Source : IPCC

12. “There is substantial […] potential for the mitigation of
global GHG emissions over the coming decades that
could […] reduce emissions below current levels”
12

13. What is REDD Plus?
REDD + is a financial instrument to incentivize conservation and sustainable
management of forests and thereby reducing GHG emissions from
deforestation and forest degradation
Underlying objectives:
Compensating the forest owners in developing countries for conserving
forests by putting a value on the forest carbon stocks
The countries conserving forests forgo the economic gain of
harvesting them as well as the benefits from alternative land
use and hence need to be compensated for the same
Costs involved in conservation and SMF needs to be shared by other
countries as the forests provide a range of offsite ecosystem services
that benefit all
Given the livelihood linkage of forests in many developing
countries, forest conservation imposes several direct and
indirect costs
13

14. Co-benefits of mitigation
 Common drivers lie
behind mitigation
policies and policies
addressing economic
development, poverty, he
alth, employment, energ
y security, and local
environmental protection
 Linking policies provide
the opportunity for no-
regrets policies reducing
greenhouse gases
mitigation costs
Source : IPCC

15. Development And Mitigation
15
 Health co-benefits from
reduced air pollution
 Increased energy
security
 More rural employment
 Increased agricultural
production
 Reduced pressure on
natural ecosystems
Promising policies will capitalize on synergies between climate protection and development
priorities to advance both simultaneously.

16. 16
Rio +20 and climate change mitigation
The Future We Want
§191 “ […] Significant gap between the aggregate effect of Parties’ mitigation pledges in
terms of glob annual emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020 and aggregate emission
pathways consistent with having a likely chance of holding the increase in global average
temperature below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.”
Heads of State and Government at Rio +20 :
• call for the widest possible cooperation by all
countries for an effective and appropriate
international response, to reduce global GHGs
• Recognize the importance of mobilizing funding to
support:
• nationally appropriate mitigation actions
(NAMAs),
• adaptation measures,
• technology development and transfer and
• capacity building in developing countries.
Source : UN

17. 17
Rio +20 critical issue: Energy
The Future We Want
§128 “[…] We recognize that
improving energy
efficiency, increasing the
share of renewable
energy, cleaner and energy-
efficient technologies are
important for sustainable
development, including in
addressing climate change.”
Source : UN

18. Overcoming barriers
18
A significant increase in the deployment
of RE by 2030, 2050 and beyond is
indicated in the majority of the 164
scenarios reviewed in this SRREN.
However:
 A transition to higher shares of RE
would imply increasing investments in
technologies and infrastructure
 Policies play a crucial role in accelerating
the deployment of RE technologies.
 Policies include regulations, financial
incentives, public finance mechanisms and
carbon pricing mechanisms.
Source : IPCC SRREN
‘Enabling’ policies support RE development and deployment

19. Systemic Overview of Bio-energy
Production

20. Schematic View of Commercial
Bio-energy Routes

21. Processing
of
Bio-fuels

22. Problems Can’t Be Solved At The Level
of Awareness That Created Them
- Albert Einstein
The difficulty, is not in the new ideas, but in
escaping from the old ones
-John Maynard Keynes