RGS A level lecture on Population & Food Issues in Africa
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A Lecture given to the Royal Geographical Society A Level Conference in 2008 on food issues in Africa.
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RGS A level lecture on Population & Food Issues in Africa
- 1. Africa - an investigation into issues of population and food supply Dr Kenny Lynch
- 2. A few questions 1. What is the world’s population?
- 3. food security is … “when all people, at all times, have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”
- 4. food security is … “when all people, at all times, have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”
- 5. World Food Summit Target: To halve the number of undernourished people by no later than 2015 That means reducing the number to 412 million
- 6. Target 1. Between 1990 and 2015 halve the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day Target 2. Between 1990 and 2015, halve the proportion of people who suffer from hunger Millennium Development Goal No. 1
- 7. A few questions 1. What is the world’s population? 2. What is the percentage of the world’s population that are undernourished now?
- 8. Comparison MDG/WFS MDG (2000) • Halve the proportion by 2015 • = 585 million (10 per cent) WFS (1996) • Halve the number of undernourished in 1992 by 2015 • = 412 million (7 per cent)
- 9. Number and % change of malnourished in LEDCs Period Change (millions) % point change 1970s - 37 9% 1980s - 100 8% Early 90s - 26 3% Late 90s +23 Source: SOFI, 2006 } net= 3*
- 10. A few questions 1. What is the world’s population? 2. What is the percentage of the world’s population that are undernourished now? 3. What percentage of Africa’s population are undernourished?
- 14. “The region is off track to meet every Millennium Development Goal … Without sustained support, Sub- Saharan Africa is unlikely to meet any of the Goals. ” Millennium Project Final Report (2005)
- 15. Earthrise, Apollo 8 photo 22nd December 1968 Source: NASA
- 16. Malthus on Food & Population 0 20 40 60 80 100 Food Population surplus deficit
- 17. Thomas Robert Malthus (1798) An Essay on the Principle of Population Or a View of Its Past and Present Effects on Human Happiness; with an Inquiry Into Our Prospects Respecting the Future Removal or Mitigation of the Evils which It Occasions • Population increases geometrically • Food production increases arithmetically • Leads to food deficit • Balance is restored by population ‘checks’ such as disease, conflict
- 18. The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure Published in 1965 by Aldine, Chicago Esther Boserup • population determines agricultural methods • "necessity is the mother of invention” • As population pressure increases, development or invention increases carrying capacity (“agricultural intensification”) QuickTime decompre are needed to see thi
- 19. Food insecurity is … • temporary, localised food shortages • protracted and large-scale famine. • Chronic, widespread poverty means millions of people are permanently vulnerable to famine
- 20. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Launched on 5th June 2001; World Environment Day Completed on 23rd March 2005 1,232 experts An ‘IPCC for the ecosystems’ http://www.millenniumassessment.org/
- 21. Changes in Demand Rapid growth in demand for ecosystem services between 1960 and 2000: world population doubled from 3 to 6 billion people global economy increased more than sixfold To meet this demand: food production increased 2 ½ times water use doubled wood harvests for pulp and paper production tripled timber production increased by more than half installed hydropower capacity doubled
- 22. Food Production Headline Trends • Food production has more than doubled since 1960 • Food production per capita has grown • Food prices have fallen
- 23. Subsistence Cultivation • > 50% of world population engaged in subsistence agriculture • mainly remote areas • Self-sufficiency • Production for exchange is minimal • Extensive - Pastoralism, shifting cultivation • Intensive - small scale sedentary agriculture • exclusively subsistence nature breaking down
- 25. Peasant Production • Small-scale • Labour-intensive • Production for exchange • Mostly family labour • Wealth flows: child-to-parent
- 30. Case Study 1 • Musa, Tanzanian farmer • Recently gave up cotton farming to grow tomatoes • Delighted with the performance of some new seeds he bought for last season • Optimistic about his future as a tomato farmer • But: we discovered during the discussion that his seeds were ‘suicide seeds’ …
- 31. Case Study 2 • Lamin, Gambian farmer • Peasant producer in village near River Gambia • Keen to develop his horticultural production business • Concerned that villagers moving away because of the attractions of employment in tourism on the coast • Leading to rural labour shortages: ‘If we had more people in the countryside, we could produce more food.’
- 32. Case Study 3 • Mustapha, farmer in Kano, Nigeria • He grows small quantities of maize, tomatoes and peppers for the market • The price he receives varies according to the economy • The strength of the economy depends largely on the global oil price and the performance of the Nigerian economy
- 33. IFPRI Report 2008 • biofuel production accounts for about 30% of grain price increases 2000-7 • Existence of food stocks would help reduce volatility
- 34. QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. “People living on less than US$2 a day have cut out health and education and sold or eaten their livestock. Those living on less than US$1 a day have cut out protein and vegetables from their diet. Those living on less than US$0.50 a day have cut out whole meals, and sometimes go days without meals. Josette Sheeran, WFP
- 35. SOFI lessons • Hunger Reduction is necessary • Agricultural growth is critical • Technology can contribute, but under the right conditions • Trade can contribute • Public investment in agriculture is essential • Development assistance does not target most in need • Peace and stability are a prerequisite
- 36. SOFI Actions • Focus on hotspots • Twin-track approach • Enhance productivity of smallholder agriculture • Create an environment for private investment • Combine poverty reduction • Make trade work for the poorest • Coordinate resources for agriculture and rural development
- 37. Policy Responses • Seeds • Fertilise • Financial Services • Subsidies • Markets • Infrastructure
- 38. Food prices • The graph contrasts monthly price changes of the last 4 + years • 2005-2006 stable • 2007 steep increase • 2008 peak and decline
- 40. To learn more … www.foodfirst.org www.fao.org www.ifprir.org www.millenniumecosystem www.dfid.gov.uk/mdg/
Editor's Notes
- 17% 1990-92 it was 20% According to FAO on path to meet the MDG of halving the percentage by 2015 - should be 10% However, the absolute number could be 582 million - which is an absolute increased from 412 million in 1992
- “ a number within the bounds of statistical error” (SOFI, 2006) 37% -> 28% -> 20 -> 17
- Africa accounts for around 25% of the world’s undernourished - it was around 20 % in 1992 and it is projected to be around 30% by 2015.
- NASA Photo 10074963.jpg Date Taken: 12/22/68 Title: View of rising Earth about five degrees above the Lunar horizon Description: The rising Earth is about five degrees above the lunar horizon in this telephoto view taken from the Apollo 8 spacecraft near 110 degrees east longitude. On the earth, the sunset terminator crosses Africa. The south pole is in the white area near the left end of the terminator. North and South America are under the clouds. The lunar surface probably has less pronounced color than indicated by this print.
- Over the past 40 years, globally, intensification of cultivated systems has been the primary source (almost 80%) of increased output. But some countries, predominantly found in Sub-Saharan Africa, have had persistently low levels of productivity, and continue to rely on expansion of cultivated area. in sub-Saharan Africa, however, yield increases accounted for only 34% of growth in production
- African farmers use only 23 kilograms of fertilizers per hectare, and Sub-Saharan African farmers just 9 kilograms per hectare the lowest rate in the world. African soils, the oldest in the world, have been leached and eroded for millennia. the cost of fertilizer delivered to ports or entry points.