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LUMApartners
The State of
DIGITAL VIDEO
Terence Kawaja
The Rise of
Digital Video
Hours
29%
Source: eMarketer, comScore
U.S.  Digital  Video  Proper6es  
Ranked  by  Unique  Video  Viewers
Average  Time  Spent  per  Day  
with  Digital  Video  by  Device  in  U.S.
YouTube Has Dominated the Rise of Digital Video
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
2011
 2012
 2013
 2014
 2015
Tablet
 Smartphone
 Desktop
 Other
But Now It’s Not the Only Game in Town
Facebook Auto-Play Videos are Ubiquitous
75%From Mobile
4 Billion Daily Views
Mobile Apps Bring Live Content to Your Fingertips
Snapchat Has Built Mobile-First Advertising
Publishers Are Making Video Too
There Just Isn’t Enough Supply!
Display  Ad  CPM
$1.90
Video  Ad  CPM
$24.60
Source: ZenithOptimedia, Note: Average CPM
$2.9%
$4.2%
$6.0%
$7.8%
$9.5%
$0.0%
$1.0%
$2.0%
$3.0%
$4.0%
$5.0%
$6.0%
$7.0%
$8.0%
$9.0%
$10.0%
2012% 2013% 2014% 2015% 2016%
CAGR:&34%&
CAGR:&172%&
Source: eMarketer
$  billions
ProgrammaAc  Video
Digital  Video
Digital Video Spend Continues to Rise
Source: eMarketer
$  billions
ProgrammaAc  Video
Digital  Video
 TV
$0.0$
$10.0$
$20.0$
$30.0$
$40.0$
$50.0$
$60.0$
$70.0$
$80.0$
2012$ 2013$ 2014$ 2015$ 2016$
$64.5
$66.4
$68.5
$70.6
$73.8
But is Still Only a Fraction of the TV Market
Traditional Digitalvs.
Traditional Digitalvs.
100 : 1
19
 Buckets
 36
~  100
 Companies
 ~  400
$150  billion
 Total  Spend
 $6  billion
$1.5  Billion
 $  /  Company
 $15  Million
Traditional TV vs. Digital Video Players
100 : 1
Market Cap: $2 Trillion
Cash: $530 Billion
5x
Cash
New Entrants Have Plenty of Money to Build or Buy
Screens
Delivery
Content
2008 Was So Simple: Traditional & Digital Silos
Delivery
Screens
Content
Second Screen
Chromecast /Airplay
Partnerships
“Netflix + Disney”
Convergence Begins with Device Proliferation
OTT/CTV
Delivery
Screens
Content Partnerships
“Netflix + Disney”
TV
Economics
Content Channels Media MVPDs Device / UI
9,000+
Channels
C
O
N
S
U
M
E
R
CTV
Devices
OTT
UI
Traditional TV Content Model
Content Channels Media MVPDs Device / UI
C
O
N
S
U
M
E
R
Programs NetworksChannel
Bundles
“Must Carry” &
Broadcast Content
Traditional TV Content Model
Content Channels Media MVPDs Device / UI
Tier 1
Cable and
Broadcast
Content
M
A
R
K
E
T
E
R
CPG Upfronts$30BB
$40BB Spot and
Scatter TV ads
$6.3BBComcast bundles
in sports content
C
O
N
S
U
M
E
RAffiliate Fees
$40BB
Retrans Fees
$80BB
Subscriptions
Traditional TV Content Model
Bundling Enables Pre-Funding of Content
10%Support100%
Bundling Enables Pre-Funding of Content
Final Late
Night Episode
Evolution of
Top Rated Show
Most Viewed
Episode
1993
1990
1992
80MM
52MM
38MM
TraditionalTV
ContentModel
Final Late
Night Episode
Evolution of
Top Rated Show
Most Viewed
Episode
1993
2007
1990
2013
1992
2009
80MM
30MM
52MM
8MM
4MM
38MM
Crosschanneldevices
killedthetelevisionstar!
MediaChannels MVPDsContent Device / UI
C
O
N
S
U
M
E
R
“Just broadband
only, thanks!”
Subscription content on license
Discrete content
“Made for web” content
“I forget what
channel it’s on
I just stream it”
“Artist to
Consumer”
Digital Opens Different Distribution & Content Strategies
Big $$$
A18-49
Reach
Incremental Budget
A25-54
Reach
Paying 30-50%
more for .5-1%
more reach?!
TRP
Source: Needham & Co. , Nielsen
Incremental Cost
Per Reach Point
Incremental is Increasingly Expensive on TV!
eMarketer Digital Video Spend Projection
$0 $0
Source: eMarketer
eMarketer TV Spend Projection
Yet TV Dollars aren’t Slowing…
TV is Definitely Not Hurting Yet
Leslie Moonves, CEO
3 Year Compensation:
$186 Million
2014 Revenue
>
Cracks
In The Wall
Slack in Demand for Upfront Buys
OTT Options are Growing
$50-­‐$70
$8
$9
$20
$99/year
$15
$6
Average  Basic  Cable  Packages
~$120
Source: NPD Group
$15
Stream
Programmatic Platforms
Targeting Technology
Attribution / Analytics
Low-Cost Production
Integrated
Workflow
Premium Content
Brand Relationships
Convergence of Two Worlds
Selling Points Reverse in 2015
Upfronts
 NewFronts
Selling  Premium  Content
 Selling  Data-­‐Driven  Approach
Selling Points Reverse in 2015
Selling  Data-­‐Driven  Approach
 Selling  Premium  Content
Upfronts
 NewFronts
Now TV is Being Aggressive with Data
Credit  Card  Data
Subscriber  Data
 Target  Audience
Yogurt  Buyers
Frozen  Snack  Buyers
Wireless  Data  Users
Inspired by WSJ
Digital is Increasing Investment in Original Content
Everyone  is  geVng  in  on  the  game
?
New Tier 1 Shows Backed with Tier 1 Talent
$0 $0
(1) Assumes 7.5% of TV Spend Shifts to Digital
Source: eMarketer
eMarketer Digital Video Spend ProjectioneMarketer TV Spend Projection
Digital Dollars Could Double
Perception vs. Reality in Addressable TV
Linear  TV
 Programma6c  TV
Percep6on
Reality
Linear  TV
 Addressable    
Linear  TV
Video  On    
Demand
(VOD)
Over  The  Top
(OTT)
Digital    
Video
Programma6c  TV
WARNING: LUMA Decks Usually Call for More M&A
Convergent TV via M&A
CONTENT
DISTRIBUTION
MONETIZATION
Media
31 Video Deals in the Last 2 Years
Digital Video Has a Very Bright Future
1.  Preferred Consumer Media
2.  Continued Device
3.  New Content Formats
4.  Ad Inventory Shortage
5.  TV Demand Shift
6.  Strategic Exit Opportunities
New York | San Francisco | Palo Alto
Access. Insights. Execution.
LUMApartners
Thank you! @tkawaja

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