The document summarizes the findings of a food security assessment in Kenya following the long rains season in 2014. It outlines that the rains were below normal, resulting in a projected 20-30% below average maize harvest. Pastoral areas have fair but deteriorating rangeland conditions and fair livestock body conditions. While current food security is stable, prices are expected to increase due to low stocks and harvest. Recommendations will be discussed.

1. LONG RAINS FOOD SECURITY
ASSESSMENT FINDINGS
Kenya Food Security Meeting
August 15th 2014

2. Presentation outline
• Assessment Coverage
• National Outlook
• Cluster Presentations
• Conclusion and Recommendations
• Discussions
2

3. Long Rains 2014 Food Security Assessment Coverage
3

4. National Outlook

5. Outline of the National Outlook
• Agro-climatic conditions
o March to May 2014 Long rains performance.
• National crop production
• Commodity prices-Maize.
o Wholesale maize price trends.
o Terms of trade
• Nutrition status
• Food security phase classification.
• October to December 2014 long rains forecast

6. Mar – Jun 2014 Rainfall performance (% of
normal)
• Onset:
– Normally timed – 2nd – 3rd week
of March.
• Spatial distribution:
– Generally uneven with
significant parts of pastoral and
small parts of southeastern
marginal receiving less than 50
percent of normal.
– Others received 90 – 150
percent of normal.
• Temporal distribution:
– Poor
• Cessation: varied
– 3rd – 4th week of April in SEM,
NEP
– 3rd week of May in NWP
– Mid-June in coastal

7. Maize production and prospects
• Total national maize output, for 2014 long rains
production:
– Projected LR 2014 output (2.2 Million MT) almost 20
- 30% below the five year average (2009-2013) of 2.7
Million MT.
• The below average output results from;
– Poor rainfall distribution in the high potential areas
and other marginal agricultural areas
– Effects of the MLND- Nandi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin
Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet
– Crop out seasons to avoid MLND- Bomet
• Other crops also below average.

8. National maize availability: Aug – Oct 2014
Maize Balance Sheet through October 2014 90 Kg bags MT
Stocks as at 31st July 2014 in 90kg bags 9,844,558 886,010
a) Total East Africa Imports* (Private sector cross border trade) expected
1,800,000 162,200
expected between August to October 2014
b) Imports outside EAC between August 2014 to 31st October 2014 0
c) Estimated harvest between August 2014 to October 2014 5,500,000 495,000
Total available stocks between August and October 2014 17,144,558 1,543,010
Post –harvest storage losses estimated at 10% 1,714,456 154,301
Amount used for manufacture of feeds and other industrial products (2% of
342,891 30,860
(2% of stocks)
Amount used as seed (1% of household stocks) 163,000 14,670
Expected total exports to East Africa Community region 0
Expected exports outside the EAC region 0
Projected national availability as at 31st October 2014 ( 90kg Bags) 14,924,211 1,343,179
CONSUMPTION @3.84 million bags/Month for 43 million people for 3
11,520,000 1,036,800
months (August to 31st October , 2014)
Balance as at 31st October 2014 (surplus/deficit) 3,404,211 306,379
Surplus 3,404,211 306,379
No. of months the available maize stocks can last Less than a
month

9. Trend of wholesale price of maize
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Nairobi Eldoret Kisumu Mombasa
Price (Ksh/90 KG Bag)
2009-2013 Average 2014 2013

10. Comparative Terms of Trade
Kilogrammes of maize exchanging for a goat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Laikipia
West Pokot
Isiolo
Baringo
Wajir
Mandera
Tana River
Kajiado
Marsabit
Samburu
Garissa
Turkana
goat
Jul-14 July Average (2009-2013)

11. Trends of GAM by Surveys 2011 to 2014

12. National Nutrition Trends
Nutrition Situation February 2014 Nutrition Situation August - October 2014

13. National Food Security Trends

14. Population in need of immediate assistance (1)
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Mar 05 - Aug 05
Sep 05 - Feb 06
Mar 06 - Aug 06
Sep 06 - Feb 07
Mar 07 - Sep 07
Oct 07 - Feb 08
Mar 08 - Sep 08
Oct 08 - Mar 09
Mar 09 - Aug 09
Sep 09 - Feb 10
Mar 10 - Aug 10
Sep 10 - Feb 11
Mar 11 - Aug 11
Sep 11 - Feb 12
Mar 12 - Aug 12
Sept 12 - Feb2013
Mar 13 - Aug 13
Sep 13 - Feb 14
Mar 14 - Aug 14
Sep 14 - Feb 15

15. Population requiring immediate food
assistance (2)
Livelihood
zones
Population
affected after
the 2013 short
rains
Population
affected after
the 2014 long
rains
Pastoral 796,000 1,004,300
Marginal
agriculture
490,600 502,100
Total 1,286,600 1,506, 400
Distribution of population affected by
County
Affected population in February 2014 and
August 2014

16. Factors affecting food security
• Below average total rainfall performance
– Poor temporal and uneven spatial long rains distribution
• High food prices
• Tribal and clan conflicts and insecurity
• Poor infrastructure-roads and communication
• Livestock and crop diseases
• Low adoption of suitable crop and livestock production
technologies.
• Human wildlife conflict

17. Conflicts, disease hotspots and livestock
Migration patterns

18. Oct – Dec Short Rains Forecast
• ECMWF- Hotter than normal (>+1.0C) dry
season (Aug – Oct) and increased likelihood
for wetter-than-normal rainfall performance
across parts of eastern and northern Kenya
during the short rains (Oct – Dec) season,
near normal for the rest of the country.

19. Cluster Presentations

20. Pastoral Northwest
Cluster
Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit Counties

21. Introduction
Figure : Pastoral Northwest Cluster Livelihood Zones
Population Proportion by Livelihood
69%
24%
7%
Zones
Pastoral
Agro-Pastoral
Others

22. Food security trend
February 2014 August 2014

23. Current Food Security Situation
• Area planted-maize 49%,cow
peas 304%(270 to 1092 Ha)
above LTA-sorghum 20% below
LTA.
• Irrigated area increased by 20%.
• Production-Maize 11% of LTA,
Cow peas 107%,sorghum 293%
(II28 TO 2975 bags) above.
• Forage condition: Poor (last 1-
2months).
• Body condition: fair to poor
camel – good.
• Milk availability-decrease by
80% to 1/4 to 1 lt per day.

24. Current Food Security Situation
• Open water sources recharge -
55 to 60 % of capacity.
• Distance to water sources -
normal 1-2 kms. pockets of
Samburu and Marsabit at
12kms.
• Water consumption-normal 10-
15l ,Parts of Marsabit and
Turkana - 5-10l compared to 10
l.
• Dropout rates - between 10-
20%.
• FCS -Marsabit and Samburu -
100% HH – poor, Turkana -
42% and 34% in poor and
borderline

25. Comparative Terms of Trade
31
81
38
23
66
35
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Turkana Marsabit Samburu
Kilograms of maize purchased
from sale of a goat
July, 2014 July Average (2009-2013)

26. Nutrition Situation
February 2014 August 2014

27. Pastoral Northeast Cluster
(Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River
Counties)

28. 28
Introduction
Livelihood Proportions
52%
21%
8%
19%
Pastoral
Agro pastoral
Mixed farming
Others

29. Food security trend
February 2014 August 2014

30. Current Food Security Situation
• Area planted for Maize and Cowpeas
declined to 85% and 79% of the LTA
respectively while Green grams area
increased to 110%.
• Production for Maize, Cowpeas and
Green grams declined to 79%, 78% and
96% of the LTA respectively.
• Return Trekking distances range
between 15 and 30 Km – above normal
of 10-20 Km.
• Body condition: fair across all the
livelihood zones except for cattle in
some pockets of the cluster which
were poor.
• Milk availability per HH: between 1.5
and 3 litres compared to normal 4 to 7
litres).

31. Comparative Terms of Trade
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Mandera Wajir Garissa Isiolo Tana River
Kilograms of maize purchased
from sale of a goat
July, 2014 July Average (2009-2013)

32. Current Food Security Situation
• Recharge to open water sources was
55-60%.
• Distances to water sources within the
normal 1-5kms and above 10kms for
pockets in Tana River under water
trucking.
• General increase in enrollment across
the cluster with Garissa recording the
highest [28%].
• Dropout rate was minimal across the
cluster except Garissa with 23% drop
out.
• Transition: ECD – primary >85%
• FIC below national target of 80%
• Vitamin A supplementation below
national target of 80% for children
aged 12-59 months (once & twice).

33. Nutrition Situation
February 2014 August 2014

34. Agro-pastoral Cluster
(Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri(Kieni) West Pokot,
Baringo, and Laikipia
34

35. Introduction

36. Food security trend
February 2014 August 2014

37. Current Food Security Situation
• Area planted: maize 94%, beans-
92% and Irish potatoes 98% of LTA.
• Rain fed Production:
• Maize - 41%, Beans - 36% and
Irish Potatoes -67% of LTA across
the cluster.
• Stocks -Households 28%, Traders
50%, Millers 39% of LTA to last 1.5
months.
• Livestock Productivity-Forage: Fair
to poor; Body condition: Fair to
poor(cattle and sheep) and good for
goats.
• Markets: Market operations
normal, except in Baringo,& Laikipia
(FMD Quarantine).

38. Comparative Terms of Trade
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Baringo West Pokot Laikipia Kajiado Nyeri Narok
Kilograms of maize purchased
from sale of a goat
July, 2014 July Average (2009-2013)

39. Current Food Security Situation
• CDR and U5DR below the alert
thresholds.
• Immunization coverage is below
national target of 80% except Nyeri
(Kieni) (87%).
• Vitamin A -below national targets of
80%.
• Nutrition - stable except East Pokot in
Baringo ( GAM: 21%) and Northern
part of West Pokot (11.8%).
• FCS - borderline (34%), poor(19%) and
acceptable(47%).
• Coping strategy index: 38 in May
2014 compared to 27 in May 2013
(Baringo, W.Pokot ,Kieni) and 9 in
Kajiado and Narok compared to 4.

40. Children at Risk of Malnutrition (MUAC<135mm)
July 2014 vs LTA Trends

41. Current Food Security Situation
• Water consumption: 10-20 litres per person per day except
the Mixed Farming Livelihood zone of Kieni and Pastoral
Livelihood zone of Baringo (7-10 litres per person per day).
• Education: Increased enrolment
and retention.

43. Introduction

44. Food security trend
February 2014 August 2014

45. Trends of maize prices in the cluster

46. Current Food Security Situation
• Maize production- 67% of
LTA.
• Other crops-32% of LTA.
• Stocks-Households
23%,traders 70% ,millers
48% of LTA.
• Forage condition: fair to
poor, body condition: good
to fair .
• Milk production is 0.5 - 1
litre per household.
• Market operations normal;
Except in parts of Meru and
Makueni.

47. Current Food Security Situation
• Water consumption is 12-20
lpppd compared to 15-30
normally.
• Latrine coverage is 67-92%.
• FIC below national target of
80% except Mbeere (82%).
• % of U-5 at risk of
malnutrition (MUAC
<135mm) trends ; stable and
below the LTA apart from
Tharaka and Meru North.
• Transition rate from Primary-secondary
at 70-86%

48. Children at Risk of Malnutrition (MUAC<135mm
July 2014 vs LTA Trends

49. 49
Coast Marginal Agricultural Cluster
(Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta)
9/18/2014

50. Introduction
Mixed
Farming,
60%
Marginal
Mixed
Farming 20% Livestock
15%
Others 5%

51. Food Security trend
February 2014 August 2014
9/18/2014 51

52. Current Food Security Situation
• Crop production:
• Maize: 85% above LTA.
• Cowpeas and green
grams was 36,40%
respectively above LTA.
• Livestock productivity:
Stable.
• Water consumption: 15- 30
lt/person/day: normal.
• Markets: Normal across the
cluster except in some parts of
Lamu.
9/18/2014 52

53. Trends of maize prices in the cluster

54. Current Food Security Situation
• Mortality: Below emergency threshold.
• Coping Strategy Index: Stable at 18, from 16 in May 2013.
• FCS ; 20% poor, 26% border line an 54% acceptable
• Education: Enrolment stable, drop out minimal.
• Nutrition status: Stable & below LTA.

55. Children at Risk of Malnutrition (MUAC<135mm
July 2014 vs LTA Trends

56. 56
Conclusions and Recommendations

57. Conclusions
• The 2014 long rains were below normal in most parts of
the country except parts of the coastal marginal areas.
• Below average harvest of 20-30 % is expected in the
from the long rains crop harvest.
• Rangeland conditions in the pastoral areas are
generally fair but deteriorating .
• Livestock Diseases especially FMD and LSD reported in
few counties however livestock body condition reported
to be fair.
• Endemic diseases currently managed by both national
and county governments and other actors.

58. Conclusions
• Water availability is fair following off season rains but
condition likely to worsen if October rains underperform
• Expected increase in maize prices due to dwindled
stocks and expected below average long rains harvest
• Continued nutrition deterioration in the pastoral areas
to critical levels generally and to emergency levels in
some counties.
• Generally the schools in the pastoral areas recording
improvements except in parts of Baringo and Turkana .
• Food security in the pastoral areas likely to continue
deteriorating through October, with improvements
expected after onset of the short rains.

59. Food Security Projection

60. Next steps……
• Support programmes; Livestock resilience projects, disease
surveillance, small scale irrigation, livestock feed
conservation in the ASALs to be strengthened.
• Soil and Water conservation activities need to be intensified
with emphasis on water harnessing/harvesting programmes
in the short rains season.
• Strengthen nutrition interventions in the areas with high
malnutrition outcomes.
• Activation of contingency plans in the counties.
• Early preparedness for the October – December short rains
likely to be normal to above normal, with potential for El Nino
occurrence.

61. Proposed Interventions
SECTOR PROPOSED INTERVENTIONS COST
Ksh.
COST IN U.S.
DOLLAR
AGRICULTURE Upscaling of input subsidy programmes and post harvest
technologies to improve access to inputs and reduce post
harvest losses, management of Maize Lethal Necrosis
disease, sensitization of farmers on management and
promotion of drought tolerant crop varieties, water
harvesting for crop production, enhancement of
agricultural mechanization, upscaling of irrigation
initiatives.
1,305M 15M
WATER Fuel subsidy, purchases of fast moving spares, repair of
storage facilities, water trucking to institutions and
communities, hygiene and sanitation promotion, building
capacity for water management commitees, Survey,
drilling and equipping of boreholes, excavations and de-silting
of pans and dams, pipelines extension provision of
water storage structures
1,131M 13M
LIVESTOCK Destocking of cattle and supplementary feeding, Livestock
disease surveillance/vaccination, breeding improvement,
fodder production, conservation, and rehabilitation of
rangeland, grazing management, Livestock marketing
infrastructure-slaughter houses, sale yards, and capacity
on livelihood diversifications.
1,479M 17M

62. Proposed Interventions
SECTOR PROPOSED INTERVENTIONS COST
Ksh.
COST IN U.S.
DOLLAR
EDUCATION Up-scaling of School Meal Programme [SMP], to include
detached ECD centers, Dugsi and Madrasahs, Provision of
Water tanks Peace Education campaigns, Construction of
kitchens, expand support of field schools, construction of
latrines, advocacy on girl child education, construction of
ECD centers.
365M 4.2M
HEALTH AND
NUTRITION
Scale up of High Impact Nutrition Interventions (HINI)
including integrated management of acute malnutrition,
procurement of equipment, active case finding, nutrition
surveillance, nutrition surveys/assessments, integrated
health and nutrition outreaches, medical screening,
procurement of water treatment tablets,, promotion of
proper hygiene and sanitation practices, deworming
1,496M 17.2M
FOOD ASSISTANCE Building resilience to future shocks through FFA and CFA.
Food commodities and cash for 1.5 million food insecure
people in need of assistance for the next six months
(September - February 2015). An estimated 66,900 MT of
food or cash equivalent (CFA) will be required.
6,612M 76M
Total 12,388M 142M

63. Thank You
9/18/2014 63