The document discusses early warning systems in Somalia, specifically through the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), which provides vital information and analysis on food security to various stakeholders since 1995. It highlights key climate risks such as drought, floods, and cyclones that impact food security and includes contributions from various humanitarian and data collection organizations. The document outlines a framework for scenario development and intervention, detailing steps taken to assess current and projected food security conditions in the region.

1. Famine Early Warning Systems Network
Early Warning Systems in Somalia
& Key Climate Risks
2nd Arab Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction
Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, 14-16 September 2014
and
Humanitarian Partnership Conference - Nairobi
16th - 18th September 2014

2. Presentation Outline
• Early warning systems in Somalia
• Key climate risks faced in Somalia
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3. Early Warning Systems in Somalia
• Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)
o since 1985 worldwide, since 1995 in Somalia
o Leading provider of information and analysis on food security
• Resources for governments, international relief agencies, NGOs, researchers,
humanitarian response planers, and journalists
o To project food security outcomes in the future FEWS NET
develops a set of assumptions
• regarding likely events, their potential impact, and probable responses of
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various actors
o Assumptions are interpreted in the context of the current conditions
and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario
• Typically for six months

4. Early Warning Systems in Somalia
Other information collection bodies in Somalia and FEWS NET’s
partners
o Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU)
• A project managed by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
• A primary source for information on food security, nutrition, and livelihoods in
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Somalia
o Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM)
• an information management unit within FAO Somalia focusing on water and
rainfall
o Somalia Resilience Program (SomRep)
• A multi-year effort by seven leading NGOs (World Vision, Oxfam, DRC,
COOPI, CARE, ADRA, and ACF)
• Designed to tackle the challenge of recurrent droughts and reduce chronic
vulnerability through early action

5. Early Warning Systems in Somalia
National disaster management agencies
o National Environment Research and Disaster
Preparedness and Management Authority (NERAD) in
Somaliland
o Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Agency
(HADMA) in Puntland
o Somali Disaster Management Agency (SDMA) in South-
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Central Somalia

6. Sources of Data and Tools : Livelihoods
5
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7. Sources of Data and Tools : Remote
Sensing
6
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• Mapviewer (USGS)
• RFE rainfall plots
http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/mapv
iewer/
CHIRPS – monthly:
USGS/UCSB-CHG,
InfraRed unbiased by
climatology, added
stations. 1981-present,
5Km, global 50N-50S, 5
days total.

8. Sources of Data and Tools : FEWS NET
Data Portal
7
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9. Sources of Data and Tools :
Water Requirements Satisfaction Index
(WRSI)
8
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10. Sources of Data and Tools :
Regional and National Climate Partners
9
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11. Sources of Data and Tools : Market
Information
10
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12. Sources of Data and Tools : Databases
11
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13. 9 Steps of Scenario Development
STEP 6: Develop
response
assumptions
STEP 5: Describe
impacts on HH food
sources
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STEP 1: Set
scenario
parameters
STEP 2: Describe
and classify current
food security
STEP 3: Develop
key assumptions
STEP 4: Describe
impacts on HH
income sources
STEP 7: Describe
and classify
projected HH food
security
STEP 8: Describe
and classify
projected area food
security
STEP 9: Identify
events which could
change the
scenario

14. Examples of Early Warning : Price
Projections
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15. Key Climate Risks
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• Drought
• Floods
• Cyclones
2010/11 Severe drought analysis

16. Key Climate Risks: Drought
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1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Total Rainfall April 1 - June 30 (mm)
Wajir District, Kenya Hiran, Somalia Middle Shabelle, Somalia Gedo, Somalia MEAN

17. Key Climate Risks: River Flooding
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• The Shabelle
River routinely
breaks 12
points within
90 km – A
distance
between
Jawhar and
Balad twons

18. Key Climate Risks: Cyclones
2014 cyclone impacts in Jariban Town, Dangorayo, Iskusuban, and Bay Districts in Puntland
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Source:
HADMA
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19. __________________________________________
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 18
(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Excess Deaths
Early warning timeline
Source: Checchi et al, 2013
Early Warning, Famine declarations, End of Famine

20. Early Warning Products
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