Early Warning Systems in Somalia & Key Climate Risks : 2nd Arab Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, 14-16 September 2014 and Humanitarian Partnership Conference - Nairobi 16th - 18th September 2014

1. Famine Early Warning Systems Network
Early Warning Systems in Somalia
& Key Climate Risks
2nd Arab Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction
Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, 14-16 September 2014
and
Humanitarian Partnership Conference - Nairobi
16th - 18th September 2014

2. Presentation Outline
• Early warning systems in Somalia
• Key climate risks faced in Somalia
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3. Early Warning Systems in Somalia
• Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)
o since 1985 worldwide, since 1995 in Somalia
o Leading provider of information and analysis on food security
• Resources for governments, international relief agencies, NGOs, researchers,
humanitarian response planers, and journalists
o To project food security outcomes in the future FEWS NET
develops a set of assumptions
• regarding likely events, their potential impact, and probable responses of
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various actors
o Assumptions are interpreted in the context of the current conditions
and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario
• Typically for six months

4. Early Warning Systems in Somalia
Other information collection bodies in Somalia and FEWS NET’s
partners
o Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU)
• A project managed by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
• A primary source for information on food security, nutrition, and livelihoods in
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Somalia
o Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM)
• an information management unit within FAO Somalia focusing on water and
rainfall
o Somalia Resilience Program (SomRep)
• A multi-year effort by seven leading NGOs (World Vision, Oxfam, DRC,
COOPI, CARE, ADRA, and ACF)
• Designed to tackle the challenge of recurrent droughts and reduce chronic
vulnerability through early action

5. Early Warning Systems in Somalia
National disaster management agencies
o National Environment Research and Disaster
Preparedness and Management Authority (NERAD) in
Somaliland
o Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Agency
(HADMA) in Puntland
o Somali Disaster Management Agency (SDMA) in South-
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Central Somalia

6. Sources of Data and Tools : Livelihoods
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7. Sources of Data and Tools : Remote
Sensing
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• Mapviewer (USGS)
• RFE rainfall plots
http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/mapv
iewer/
CHIRPS – monthly:
USGS/UCSB-CHG,
InfraRed unbiased by
climatology, added
stations. 1981-present,
5Km, global 50N-50S, 5
days total.

8. Sources of Data and Tools : FEWS NET
Data Portal
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9. Sources of Data and Tools :
Water Requirements Satisfaction Index
(WRSI)
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10. Sources of Data and Tools :
Regional and National Climate Partners
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11. Sources of Data and Tools : Market
Information
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12. Sources of Data and Tools : Databases
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13. 9 Steps of Scenario Development
STEP 6: Develop
response
assumptions
STEP 5: Describe
impacts on HH food
sources
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STEP 1: Set
scenario
parameters
STEP 2: Describe
and classify current
food security
STEP 3: Develop
key assumptions
STEP 4: Describe
impacts on HH
income sources
STEP 7: Describe
and classify
projected HH food
security
STEP 8: Describe
and classify
projected area food
security
STEP 9: Identify
events which could
change the
scenario

14. Examples of Early Warning : Price
Projections
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15. Key Climate Risks
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• Drought
• Floods
• Cyclones
2010/11 Severe drought analysis

16. Key Climate Risks: Drought
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1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Total Rainfall April 1 - June 30 (mm)
Wajir District, Kenya Hiran, Somalia Middle Shabelle, Somalia Gedo, Somalia MEAN

17. Key Climate Risks: River Flooding
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• The Shabelle
River routinely
breaks 12
points within
90 km – A
distance
between
Jawhar and
Balad twons

18. Key Climate Risks: Cyclones
2014 cyclone impacts in Jariban Town, Dangorayo, Iskusuban, and Bay Districts in Puntland
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Source:
HADMA
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19. __________________________________________
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(5,000)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Excess Deaths
Early warning timeline
Source: Checchi et al, 2013
Early Warning, Famine declarations, End of Famine

20. Early Warning Products
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