This document discusses improving project estimation and predicting delivery dates. It begins by noting that detailed estimation does not strongly influence lead times due to typically low flow efficiencies in systems. Lead time histograms can provide a statistical, less biased way to predict completion dates with confidence levels. Class of service and work item characteristics can help identify the most accurate histogram. Considering cost of delay functions alongside histograms helps determine when work should start to balance timely delivery and optimization of resources. The document advocates predicting delivery dates through this mathematical approach rather than relying on effort estimates.
This is the talk I am doing at the 2010 SQE Better Software/Agile Development Practices Conference in Vegas this week. Not much new, but this is a combination of several ideas from many of my existing presentations.
How to measure the outcome of agile transformationRahul Sudame
This presentation covers details on how we can measure that Agile Transformation is providing the intended outcome or not. I presents a research & survey which tries to understand how different people measure value of Agile Transformation
Validating Delivered Business Value – Going Beyond “Actual Business Value”Yuval Yeret
Actual is a relative term when it comes to business value delivered by a SAFe PI Objective. In this talk we will explore techniques for validating the actual value delivered by SAFe Teams and ARTs based on real-world outcomes that can be evaluated post-release. RTEs, Product Management and Lean/Agile Leaders will be able to assess their current ability to validate value and learn specific practices they could add to their artifacts and events. Finally, we will take a deeper look at optionality and hypothesis-driven thinking in SAFe and challenge the comfort zone on how to properly use some of SAFe’s essential elements in this context.
Learning Objectives:
Assess their competency level of their ART/Program when it comes to ability to validate value
Evolve their Inspect and Adapt events to enable validation value based on real outcomes
Extend their Program and Portfolio Kanbans to help manage the flow of learning and validation.
This is the talk I am doing at the 2010 SQE Better Software/Agile Development Practices Conference in Vegas this week. Not much new, but this is a combination of several ideas from many of my existing presentations.
How to measure the outcome of agile transformationRahul Sudame
This presentation covers details on how we can measure that Agile Transformation is providing the intended outcome or not. I presents a research & survey which tries to understand how different people measure value of Agile Transformation
Validating Delivered Business Value – Going Beyond “Actual Business Value”Yuval Yeret
Actual is a relative term when it comes to business value delivered by a SAFe PI Objective. In this talk we will explore techniques for validating the actual value delivered by SAFe Teams and ARTs based on real-world outcomes that can be evaluated post-release. RTEs, Product Management and Lean/Agile Leaders will be able to assess their current ability to validate value and learn specific practices they could add to their artifacts and events. Finally, we will take a deeper look at optionality and hypothesis-driven thinking in SAFe and challenge the comfort zone on how to properly use some of SAFe’s essential elements in this context.
Learning Objectives:
Assess their competency level of their ART/Program when it comes to ability to validate value
Evolve their Inspect and Adapt events to enable validation value based on real outcomes
Extend their Program and Portfolio Kanbans to help manage the flow of learning and validation.
10 Essential SAFe(tm) patterns you should focus on when scaling AgileYuval Yeret
Scaling agile can be overwhelming. In this tutorial, Yuval will provide an overview of the ten essential SAFe patterns, and highlight the diagnostic symptoms that appear when the patterns aren’t in place. Attendees will develop a personal “flash assessment” of their current work context and will be able to identify to “inspect and adapt” areas for improvement. They will also learn how to use this sort of assessment/patterns during their scaled agile journey.
(This includes the Essential SAFe assessment toolkit provided by ScaledAgile)
Background of measuring and metric usage is traditional waterfall projects, psychology of measuring, agile response to traditional metrics, and suggested agile metrics.
Scaled Agile Framework (SAFe) in the TrenchesYuval Yeret
eBook by AgileSparks - curated blog posts, guidance articles, implementation approaches - all based on AgileSparks and specifically Yuval Yeret's experience implementing SAFe in the trenches.
Life Has Not Been That Rosy With Agile : Rahul SudameoGuild .
In my experience, Agile adoption started in some of the organizations with lot of hype and inflated expectations. And in such cases, if Agile transformation is not handled properly, it can result in multiple challenges rather than providing the expected benefits.
This practical experience sharing session would cover some such problems I faced while applying Agile in different environments. The audience practicing Agile can relate some of these challenges with their own environment as well. The attendees who are on their path to Agile transformation can learn from the lessons and mistakes shared by the speaker.
The session would cover challenges observed due to nature of the project, customer-vendor engagement model, application of processes, attitude of people rolling out agile, unrealistic expectations, conflict in roles and responsibilities. It would also highlight challenges introduced to some of the roles (like Project/QA Manager/Manual Tester etc.) in Agile environment and impact on billing / project contracts / SOW etc.
Scrum with value streams - Can you finally get rid of waterfall thinking?Tasktop
Increasingly, DevOps is encouraging organizations to think holistically about the value streams of delivery. Make work visible and look to reduce waste. But agile and Scrum has taught us that complex problems require teams to self-organize, to 'scrum' to make progress. Does that mean that the value streams are continually changing? Does that mean that when you introduce value streams you remove the ability of the Scrum team to self-organize?
In this talk, Dave West Product Owner and CEO of Scrum.org and Mik Kersten CEO of Tasktop discuss the challenges of introducing value streams to a Scrum world and how you can balance flexibility with the structure to enable better flow and deliver more value to customers. They will discuss how to avoid Value-Waterfall-Stream to make sure your stream doesn't become a waterfall and provide a list of potential warning signs for when the process of value streams has become a way of re-introducing traditional waterfall thinking to your product delivery process.
Managers encounter continued pressure to deliver more software in less time and they tend to introduce many different KPIs to measure success. But why do they introduce KPIs in the first place? Which are the good KPIs? Which ones are not useful? And which ones are the harmful ones? This white paper presents some of the most common KPIs and the expected outcomes that you could find using them. Agile Vs. Waterfall
Successful Agile Transformation - The NCS StoryNUS-ISS
Presented by Mr Lee Chee Yong, Agile Practice Lead of NCS Agile Competency Centre at ISS Seminar - Agile Software Development: Swift and the Shift on 18 July 2014.
Pecha kucha format- how can devops be implemented with lean and agileRavi Tadwalkar
Title:
-------
Case Study: Lean Manufacturing plant level continuous improvement
How can DevOps be implemented with Lean and Agile?
Description:
-----------------
How can we leverage our knowledge of Lean Manufacturing and TPS (Toyota Production System) to implement Agile & DevOps in organizations?
My topic is about "how DevOps can be implemented with Lean and Agile", by implementing Enterprise Kanban system that has this value stream:
“Portfolio Kanban (upstream “Epics”) -> Scrum / ScrumBan / Kanban “In the middle” -> Release Engineering Kanban(Downstream “Deployable Artifacts”),
Presentation History:
Agile2016, PechaKuchaLightening Talk on July 27, 2016
Reference:
---------------
Slides 21-27 in my preso:
http://www.slideshare.net/RaviTadwalkar/devops-approach-point-of-view-by-ravi-tadwalkar
The primary intent of this presentation is to bring forward the similarities and differences between Lean and Agile software development paradigms at the root level, and how these can be leveraged in order to create complex software solutions.
How to measure a product development organization? Lean/Agile provides a fresh view on this. Kanban goes further and makes it VERY easy to measure. Learn what to look at and how.
Lean Kanban India 2017 | Damn… we missed the date again! | Sudipta LahiriLeanKanbanIndia
Session Title : Damn… we missed the date again!
Session Overview:We have experienced the embarrassment of missing our planned dates. Ironically, this cycle doesn’t end with one instance. We re-commit to another date and miss than again! We are all experienced people, we have been in this business for a long time. Why then do we keep missing our dates again and again?
Scrum makes a sincere attempt in changing this pattern. By making the team estimate how much it can deliver within a Sprint and by mandating that the team should be not be disturbed with changing scope within a Sprint, it attempts to increase the probability of hitting the dates. Yet, it isn’t uncommon for teams to be burnt out by the time the Sprint ends OR for unfinished scope spilling over to the next Sprint.
Clearly, something is wrong at the core. Why is this so difficult? Is it reasonable to keep blaming the team or the people managing the project? This experience isn’t the exception! It is the norm in most teams.
In this session, we discuss what is wrong at the core. What are we missing in our planning? If this does not work, what will? Does Kanban have a solution for this?
At the end of this session, you should be able to learn how not to fall into this trap again!
Lean Kanban India 2019 Conference | Scrumban comes to the rescue: A Case Stud...LeanKanbanIndia
Session Title: Scrumban comes to the rescue: A Case Study
Abstract: In this case study, we discuss the challenges faced by the customer and the project team and how Scrumban helped the customer navigate through these challenges. We highlight how Metrics helped the team in its planning, forecasting and identifying their Continuous Improvement steps.
10 Essential SAFe(tm) patterns you should focus on when scaling AgileYuval Yeret
Scaling agile can be overwhelming. In this tutorial, Yuval will provide an overview of the ten essential SAFe patterns, and highlight the diagnostic symptoms that appear when the patterns aren’t in place. Attendees will develop a personal “flash assessment” of their current work context and will be able to identify to “inspect and adapt” areas for improvement. They will also learn how to use this sort of assessment/patterns during their scaled agile journey.
(This includes the Essential SAFe assessment toolkit provided by ScaledAgile)
Background of measuring and metric usage is traditional waterfall projects, psychology of measuring, agile response to traditional metrics, and suggested agile metrics.
Scaled Agile Framework (SAFe) in the TrenchesYuval Yeret
eBook by AgileSparks - curated blog posts, guidance articles, implementation approaches - all based on AgileSparks and specifically Yuval Yeret's experience implementing SAFe in the trenches.
Life Has Not Been That Rosy With Agile : Rahul SudameoGuild .
In my experience, Agile adoption started in some of the organizations with lot of hype and inflated expectations. And in such cases, if Agile transformation is not handled properly, it can result in multiple challenges rather than providing the expected benefits.
This practical experience sharing session would cover some such problems I faced while applying Agile in different environments. The audience practicing Agile can relate some of these challenges with their own environment as well. The attendees who are on their path to Agile transformation can learn from the lessons and mistakes shared by the speaker.
The session would cover challenges observed due to nature of the project, customer-vendor engagement model, application of processes, attitude of people rolling out agile, unrealistic expectations, conflict in roles and responsibilities. It would also highlight challenges introduced to some of the roles (like Project/QA Manager/Manual Tester etc.) in Agile environment and impact on billing / project contracts / SOW etc.
Scrum with value streams - Can you finally get rid of waterfall thinking?Tasktop
Increasingly, DevOps is encouraging organizations to think holistically about the value streams of delivery. Make work visible and look to reduce waste. But agile and Scrum has taught us that complex problems require teams to self-organize, to 'scrum' to make progress. Does that mean that the value streams are continually changing? Does that mean that when you introduce value streams you remove the ability of the Scrum team to self-organize?
In this talk, Dave West Product Owner and CEO of Scrum.org and Mik Kersten CEO of Tasktop discuss the challenges of introducing value streams to a Scrum world and how you can balance flexibility with the structure to enable better flow and deliver more value to customers. They will discuss how to avoid Value-Waterfall-Stream to make sure your stream doesn't become a waterfall and provide a list of potential warning signs for when the process of value streams has become a way of re-introducing traditional waterfall thinking to your product delivery process.
Managers encounter continued pressure to deliver more software in less time and they tend to introduce many different KPIs to measure success. But why do they introduce KPIs in the first place? Which are the good KPIs? Which ones are not useful? And which ones are the harmful ones? This white paper presents some of the most common KPIs and the expected outcomes that you could find using them. Agile Vs. Waterfall
Successful Agile Transformation - The NCS StoryNUS-ISS
Presented by Mr Lee Chee Yong, Agile Practice Lead of NCS Agile Competency Centre at ISS Seminar - Agile Software Development: Swift and the Shift on 18 July 2014.
Pecha kucha format- how can devops be implemented with lean and agileRavi Tadwalkar
Title:
-------
Case Study: Lean Manufacturing plant level continuous improvement
How can DevOps be implemented with Lean and Agile?
Description:
-----------------
How can we leverage our knowledge of Lean Manufacturing and TPS (Toyota Production System) to implement Agile & DevOps in organizations?
My topic is about "how DevOps can be implemented with Lean and Agile", by implementing Enterprise Kanban system that has this value stream:
“Portfolio Kanban (upstream “Epics”) -> Scrum / ScrumBan / Kanban “In the middle” -> Release Engineering Kanban(Downstream “Deployable Artifacts”),
Presentation History:
Agile2016, PechaKuchaLightening Talk on July 27, 2016
Reference:
---------------
Slides 21-27 in my preso:
http://www.slideshare.net/RaviTadwalkar/devops-approach-point-of-view-by-ravi-tadwalkar
The primary intent of this presentation is to bring forward the similarities and differences between Lean and Agile software development paradigms at the root level, and how these can be leveraged in order to create complex software solutions.
How to measure a product development organization? Lean/Agile provides a fresh view on this. Kanban goes further and makes it VERY easy to measure. Learn what to look at and how.
Lean Kanban India 2017 | Damn… we missed the date again! | Sudipta LahiriLeanKanbanIndia
Session Title : Damn… we missed the date again!
Session Overview:We have experienced the embarrassment of missing our planned dates. Ironically, this cycle doesn’t end with one instance. We re-commit to another date and miss than again! We are all experienced people, we have been in this business for a long time. Why then do we keep missing our dates again and again?
Scrum makes a sincere attempt in changing this pattern. By making the team estimate how much it can deliver within a Sprint and by mandating that the team should be not be disturbed with changing scope within a Sprint, it attempts to increase the probability of hitting the dates. Yet, it isn’t uncommon for teams to be burnt out by the time the Sprint ends OR for unfinished scope spilling over to the next Sprint.
Clearly, something is wrong at the core. Why is this so difficult? Is it reasonable to keep blaming the team or the people managing the project? This experience isn’t the exception! It is the norm in most teams.
In this session, we discuss what is wrong at the core. What are we missing in our planning? If this does not work, what will? Does Kanban have a solution for this?
At the end of this session, you should be able to learn how not to fall into this trap again!
Lean Kanban India 2019 Conference | Scrumban comes to the rescue: A Case Stud...LeanKanbanIndia
Session Title: Scrumban comes to the rescue: A Case Study
Abstract: In this case study, we discuss the challenges faced by the customer and the project team and how Scrumban helped the customer navigate through these challenges. We highlight how Metrics helped the team in its planning, forecasting and identifying their Continuous Improvement steps.
I gave this presentation at Lean Kanban Asia-Pacific conference in Bangalore, India on December 11th, 2014 and at AgileDC on Washington, USA on October 21st, 2014.
I have several recent blog posts on this topic, This search link should get most of them: http://connected-knowledge.com/?s=lead+time. If you need one "best" post, here it is, Inside a Lead Time Distribution: http://connected-knowledge.com/2014/09/07/inside-lead-time-distribution/
Presentation at the SAFe Summit 2022.
PI Planning is in the bag and the train has left the station, at last, you can relax. Or so you thought…. The first iteration is fairly quiet, the second seems smooth as well and then it happens, without warning you are over halfway through the PI and your train has derailed without any warning. How did this happen?! You held all the PI Execution events as described in the textbook but your train looks like it won't be delivering the cargo to the next station on time. What else could you have done?
What if you applied the Extreme Programming mantra to PI Execution, by taking proven good SAFe practices and then took them to the extreme or as we say turn up the good?
In this long-awaiting sequel to their 2021 SAFe Summit session about “Turning up the magic in PI Planning”, Em & Adrienne will show you how they take PI Execution to the next level by turning up the flow.
Learning outcomes:
- Recognise how the SAFe Principles can be applied to “turn up the flow” in SAFe PI Execution.
- Adapt the batch size of SAFe PI Execution Events to improve flow.
- Introduce new PI Execution patterns that enable greater flow.
Метрики, которые приносят пользу
Следующие вебинары:
In Search for Team's Efficiency https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/471689760712542978?source=slideshare
Best Tools to Develop Soft Skills in Scrum and Agile Development https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3974870146644735746?source=slideshare
How to Better Manage Technical Debt While Innovating on DevOpsDynatrace
Forget the “Unicorns.” There is a lot to learn from “DevOps Unicorns” such as Etsy or Facebook, but for enterprises dealing with technical debt in legacy systems developed by teams no longer with the company, copying the unicorns is not an option.
Richard Dominguez, Operations Developer at Prep Sportswear, needed to “keep the lights on” for their legacy systems, while enabling his DevOps teams to launch new features much faster. Today Prep Sportswear releases more updates to their legacy systems than ever before by reducing MTTR (Mean Time To Repair), giving them more time to innovate on DevOps and Continuous Delivery on their new platform. You’ll learn:
• Top metrics for an Ops dashboard to catch potential issues early
• Tips to manage technical debt in legacy code caused by dev teams long gone
• Efficient ways to close loops while providing input to DevOps so they can optimize innovation and releases
From Chaos to Confidence: DevOps at LeanKitJon Terry
As a company, LeanKit have believed in Lean, Kanban, Agile, DevOps since our founding. We've alway talked about how important these ideas are - in the community and inside our company.
But that doesn't mean that doing those things in practice has been easy. We're a very fast growing startup in a very competitive market space. We've tripled in size in less than a year and nearly came apart at the seams at times.
In fact, in the fall of 2015, our technology team were having a very hard team. We were out of synch with our sales & marketing partners and facing a lot of internal conflict.
But we came together as a team and worked hard to implement a well coordinated system of values, team structure, cadences, and standard practices. We're now in a much better place as a team and generating much better results for our company.
There are no one-size-fits-all answers for companies. I can't promise that if you copy LeanKit you'll succeed. But we do think we have some interesting lessons learned to share and that you just might be able to pick up some ideas that you can take back to your company.
Bio:
Jon Terry is co-Chief Executive Officer of LeanKit. Before LeanKit, Jon held a number of senior IT positions with hospital-giant HCA and its logistics subsidiary, HealthTrust Purchasing Group. He was among those responsible for launching HCA’s adoption of Lean/Agile methods.
Jon earned his Global Executive MBA from Georgetown University and ESADE Business School in Barcelona, Spain, and his Masters Certificate in Project Management from George Washington University. He is a Project Management Professional, a Certified Scrum Master, a Kanban Coaching Professional, is certified in the Lean Construction Institute’s Last Planner Method, and trained in the SAFe Lean Systems Engineering method.
Have your Agile practices become stale or redundant? Does it feel like your team is just going through the motions? Have team members asked to discontinue “critical Agile practices” and ceremonies?
In Lean product development, the minimum viable product or MVP, is defined as the product with the highest return on investment versus risk. It’s a strategy to avoid building products that customers don’t need or want by maximizing our learning of what is valuable to the customer.
Agile is typically learned through exposure to a series of Agile practices, a recipe of sorts. But what if that recipe goes beyond minimal? Have we replaced heavy waterfall process with heavy Agile process?
This session will interrogate the thinking behind some of the Agile sacred cows like detailed sprint planning, detailed release planning, and even some popular estimation techniques. We will try to identify what is truly needed to be Agile, based on needs instead of prescribed recipes. What is minimally sufficient to start realizing the benefits of Agile?
What is your MVA? It might be different than you think!
To Estimate or Not to Estimate, is that the Question?TechWell
Wondering what NoEstimates means in practice, or why you would want to move toward NoEstimates? Perhaps you’ve heard the buzz or read Vasco Duarte’s book. Maybe you simply want to understand how you can spend less time estimating and more time delivering working software—all while providing your customers with some understanding of predictability. If so, Matthew Phillip will help you understand through lessons learned with NoEstimates what and to what degree different factors influence delivery time. Join Matthew to learn how to move from upfront intuition-based estimates to create a data-based probabilistic forecast that provides a more reliable way to talk about when stuff will be done—and expend less effort to do so. Learn to forecast when things will be done -- with less effort and more accuracy!
Getting requirements right for business agilitySudipta Lahiri
In this slidedeck, we help explain how our messaging to the Leadership team, that is largely experienced in conventional ways of software development, must change to help them understand how Lean-Agile thinking drive Business Agility. This specific presentation is focussed on how the messaging around Requirements needs to change!
INNOVATION ROOTS | Webinar | Three Secrets of Agile Leaders | Peter StevensInnovation Roots
Overview:
Agility as a movement started with software developers uncovering better ways of doing what they do. Today that movement is driving even business leaders to rethink how they lead their organizations. What does it mean to "be" agile? How can agility be applied to leading organizations? Where do successful agile leaders start? Three stories, three secrets, and three tips to apply agility to your life and work and unlock your potential as an executive or a manager.
Learning Objectives:
1. Connect agility at the personal, the team and the organizational level
2. Experience how the same challenges that led to poor performance in software development 30 years ago still plague the management of most organizations today.
3. Learn 3 simple techniques to unlock the potential of management.
4. Learn the key concepts and principles of Personal Agility
INNOVATION ROOTS | Webinar | Kanban Management Professional to Create Value, ...Innovation Roots
Session Title : Kanban Management Professional to Create Value, Create Service
Session Overview:
The purpose of your organisation is to create customers! Everything you do at work directly or indirectly affects the flow of value to the consumers of that work, and the likelihood they will become, stay, or stop being customers. We need to take the idea that knowledge work is a service seriously! This webinar introduces one of the key foundations of being a successful Kanban Management Professional, seeing and improving the network of services that enables your organisation to deliver value to customers.
Kanban defines three Service Delivery Principles that focus on this idea, and we'll look at them in more detail in this webinar. Thinking about the nature of the services we delivery, who we deliver them to, and what makes them fit for the customer's purpose, breaks through the purely procedural aspects of process to the motivations for, and mechanisms to, continually improve the way we work. We'll see that flow efficiency and lead time are an integral part of how customers experience our work.
This webinar introduces you to one of the elements of the Kanban Lens, as well as Kanban's principles and general practices. It will also set you on the road to find out more, and possibly to become a Kanban Management Professional (KMP).
"Struggling Scrum Masters to Thriving Scrum Masters" - by Puneet Duneja @ Sca...Innovation Roots
Learn techniques to identify forces working as barriers in your performance as a Scrum Master, develop understanding to judge when to step-in and when to step-out.
it describes the bony anatomy including the femoral head , acetabulum, labrum . also discusses the capsule , ligaments . muscle that act on the hip joint and the range of motion are outlined. factors affecting hip joint stability and weight transmission through the joint are summarized.
A Strategic Approach: GenAI in EducationPeter Windle
Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies such as Generative AI, Image Generators and Large Language Models have had a dramatic impact on teaching, learning and assessment over the past 18 months. The most immediate threat AI posed was to Academic Integrity with Higher Education Institutes (HEIs) focusing their efforts on combating the use of GenAI in assessment. Guidelines were developed for staff and students, policies put in place too. Innovative educators have forged paths in the use of Generative AI for teaching, learning and assessments leading to pockets of transformation springing up across HEIs, often with little or no top-down guidance, support or direction.
This Gasta posits a strategic approach to integrating AI into HEIs to prepare staff, students and the curriculum for an evolving world and workplace. We will highlight the advantages of working with these technologies beyond the realm of teaching, learning and assessment by considering prompt engineering skills, industry impact, curriculum changes, and the need for staff upskilling. In contrast, not engaging strategically with Generative AI poses risks, including falling behind peers, missed opportunities and failing to ensure our graduates remain employable. The rapid evolution of AI technologies necessitates a proactive and strategic approach if we are to remain relevant.
Normal Labour/ Stages of Labour/ Mechanism of LabourWasim Ak
Normal labor is also termed spontaneous labor, defined as the natural physiological process through which the fetus, placenta, and membranes are expelled from the uterus through the birth canal at term (37 to 42 weeks
Delivering Micro-Credentials in Technical and Vocational Education and TrainingAG2 Design
Explore how micro-credentials are transforming Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) with this comprehensive slide deck. Discover what micro-credentials are, their importance in TVET, the advantages they offer, and the insights from industry experts. Additionally, learn about the top software applications available for creating and managing micro-credentials. This presentation also includes valuable resources and a discussion on the future of these specialised certifications.
For more detailed information on delivering micro-credentials in TVET, visit this https://tvettrainer.com/delivering-micro-credentials-in-tvet/
This presentation includes basic of PCOS their pathology and treatment and also Ayurveda correlation of PCOS and Ayurvedic line of treatment mentioned in classics.
A workshop hosted by the South African Journal of Science aimed at postgraduate students and early career researchers with little or no experience in writing and publishing journal articles.
This slide is special for master students (MIBS & MIFB) in UUM. Also useful for readers who are interested in the topic of contemporary Islamic banking.
How to Build a Module in Odoo 17 Using the Scaffold MethodCeline George
Odoo provides an option for creating a module by using a single line command. By using this command the user can make a whole structure of a module. It is very easy for a beginner to make a module. There is no need to make each file manually. This slide will show how to create a module using the scaffold method.
Thinking of getting a dog? Be aware that breeds like Pit Bulls, Rottweilers, and German Shepherds can be loyal and dangerous. Proper training and socialization are crucial to preventing aggressive behaviors. Ensure safety by understanding their needs and always supervising interactions. Stay safe, and enjoy your furry friends!
Macroeconomics- Movie Location
This will be used as part of your Personal Professional Portfolio once graded.
Objective:
Prepare a presentation or a paper using research, basic comparative analysis, data organization and application of economic information. You will make an informed assessment of an economic climate outside of the United States to accomplish an entertainment industry objective.
Exploiting Artificial Intelligence for Empowering Researchers and Faculty, In...Dr. Vinod Kumar Kanvaria
Exploiting Artificial Intelligence for Empowering Researchers and Faculty,
International FDP on Fundamentals of Research in Social Sciences
at Integral University, Lucknow, 06.06.2024
By Dr. Vinod Kumar Kanvaria
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
2. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Agile/Lean Practitioner and Student
Head of Products @ Digité
ex-Head of Engineering and Professional Services @ Digité
Development of SwiftKanban, SwiftALM products
Organize the LimitedWIP Societies in India
Sudipta Lahiri (Sudi)
2.5+ decades in the industry
2
3. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Let us do a quick poll…
All those who have not missed a project deadline, please sit
All those have not missed the same project deadlines more than
once… please sit
All those have not missed the same project deadlines more than
twice... please sit
All those have not missed the same project deadlines more than
thrice… please sit
3
4. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Why does it happen?
Estimates => Deadlines!
Requirement clarity
Often, needs many more
iterations
Turnaround time to sign-offs!
Estimation
Complexity
Experience
of person estimating
of person developing
Hidden work/invisible work
Test Cycles/# of test iteration
90-10% Syndrome
Why does this happen?
Work getting pushed downstream
before it was really ready!
Other reasons…
4
5. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
What do we estimate?
Customers want to know by when something will
get done
We estimate how long its going to take…
… and then we match the two…
… but they don’t match!
5
6. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
What’s our typical reaction to this?
Wish we had planned more!
Wish we had spent more time in estimation!
Wish we had more detailed requirements OR
we had designed in greater detail
Wish we had…
6
8. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Why?
The time that a work item takes to get completed is only
“LITTLE” influenced by its real effort!
SURPRISED…?
You Bet!
For the last 50-60 years, we have spent countless hours in trying
to estimate how much effort the work item takes…
It’s a classic waste/non-value add (in lean language)!
8
11. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
F
F
FF
F
F F
Defining Customer Lead Time
UAT
E
I
Dev
Ready
Delivery
Ready
G
D
5
∞
Pull
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done3 3
Test
Ready
5 ∞
Customer Lead Time
Discarded
J
Pool
of
Ideas
Done
∞
Frequency of batch transfers
needs to be calculated and
added to kanban system lead
time to calculate customer lead
time
Frequency of batch transfers
needs to be calculated and
added to kanban system lead
time to calculate customer lead
time
The clock still starts ticking
when we accept the customers
order, not when it is placed!
Slide from LKU Training Deck
11
13. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Test
Ready
Flow Efficiency
F
E
I
G
D
GY
PB
DE MN
P1
AB
Customer Lead Time
Waiting Waiting WaitingWorking
* Zsolt Fabok, Lean Agile Scotland, Sep 2012, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2012
** Hakan Forss, Lean Kanban France, Oct 2013
Ideas
Dev
Ready
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 35
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
Flow efficiency measures
the percentage of total
lead time is spent
actually adding value
(or knowledge) versus
waiting
Flow efficiency % = Work Time x 100%
Lead Time
Working WaitingWorking
Multitasking means time spent in
working columns is often waiting
time
Slide from LKU Training Deck
Flow efficiencies of 1-5% are
commonly reported. *, **
> 40% is good!
13
14. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Even in a Kanban team like SwiftKanban
Our flow efficiency over a 7 year period < 50%
14
15. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Waiting Waiting WaitingWorking Working WaitingWorking
Test
Ready
Implications of low Flow Efficiency
F
E
I
G
D
GY
PB
DE MN
P1
AB
Ideas
Dev
Ready
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 35
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
Low flow efficiency means that most of lead time is influenced
by environmental factors that are unlikely to change soon
Customer Lead Time
In a low flow efficiency
environment, Class of
service is much more
likely to influence lead
time than any other
factor
As a result, lead time is
not very sensitive to the
size or complexity of a
single work item, or to
the specific people
involved or their
individual capabilities
Slide from LKU Training Deck
15
16. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
This profoundly changes our thinking
of the last 5 decades!
The estimate that we made with a lot effort and diligence isn’t a real factor!
Further… how many assumptions to get to the estimate?
Requirement assumptions
Design assumptions
People skill assumptions
No business interruption/dedicated resource assumptions
Contingency assumptions
Management acceptance of that contingency assumptions…
Estimation bias of the person doing the estimation!
In short, there are simply TOO MANY SYSTEM variables in a system that are NOT in our
control… yet, we estimate with confidence (with buffers)
16
17. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
The odds were always stacked against you to win this game
If you did manage to deliver on time, has someone ever told
you:
You must have buffered your estimates like crazy!”
You got lucky!
… and… you did a good job!
17
19. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Understanding Distributions 19
Most of us think of distributions as a “Bell Curve”
Extremely common in natural domain
A legacy of our appraisal discussions… ?
In a Normal Bell Curve, also called Gaussian Distribution,
Mean(or Average) = Modal
CLT applies (from Wikipedia):
When independent random variables are added, their properly normalized sum tends
toward a normal distribution (a bell curve) even if the original variables themselves are not
normally distributed.
20. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Lead Time & Weibull Distributions
Lead time histograms observed to
be Weibull distributions typically
with shape parameter 1.0 < k <
2.0
This example is a Weibull
distribution with a scale
parameter equal to 65
and shape parameter equal
to 1.4
Outliers with known
special causes at 87 &
105 are omitted from the
“best fit” curve
Slide from LKU Training Deck
20
21. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Lead Time Distribution
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99
106
113
120
127
134
141
148
Days
CRs&Bugs
SLA expectation of
44 days with 85% on-time
Mean of 31
days
SLA expectation of
105 days with 98 % on-time
Lead Time Histogram
Slide from LKU Training Deck
21
22. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Lead Time Distribution
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99
106
113
120
127
134
141
148
Days
CRs&Bugs
SLA expectation of
44 days with 85% on-time
Mean of 31
days
SLA expectation of
105 days with 98 % on-time
This is multi-modal data!
The work is of two types:
Change Requests (new features);
and Production Defects
This is multi-modal data!
The work is of two types:
Change Requests (new features);
and Production Defects
Lead Time Histogram
Slide from LKU Training Deck
22
23. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
85% at
10 days
Mean
5 days
98% at
25 days
ProductionDefects
ChangeRequests
85% at
60 days
Mean
50 days
98% at
150 days
Mode
Median
45 days
Filter by Type/Class to get Single Modal
Data
Slide from LKU Training Deck
23
24. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
ChangeRequests
60 days, SLE (customer expectation)
Use Lead Time Distribution to Evaluate
Service Delivery Effectiveness
22-150 day
spread of variation
85%
on-time
15% late
Due Date
Performance
(DDP)
Predictability
Slide from LKU Training Deck
24
25. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Let’s recap
Given the flow efficiency that most systems experience (in low
teens or single digits)…
… to somehow think that more planning and more detailed
estimation will help us predict better when we can deliver our
work item to your customer/end user is “mathematically” flawed!
25
26. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
So… how do stop making wrong commitments?
1. Don’t answer the wrong
question…
How long will this get done?
When will this get done?
How much time this will
take?
How many resources do you
need?
2. The correct question is…
When do you need it?
What is the Cost of Delay?
26
27. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
So… how do make accurate predictions?
We use mathematical basis – Lead Time Histograms
Lead Time Histograms guide us to predict a completion date WITH
ASSOCIATED LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE
27
28. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Let’s improve our hit rate… Step 1
Class of Services
If you are not following Kanban, you might commonly call it as
“Priority”
David calls CoS as the “Sonic Screwdriver” for a Kanban System
Use CoS to better meet Due Dates
If a work item gets closer to its Due Date, escalate its CoS to Expedite
The getKanban games gives a good example of how this could work!
28
29. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Let’s improve our hit rate… Step 2
Classify your work items with greater clarity/refinement , for
e.g.:
For our SwiftKanban product:
T-shirt sizing: quick and effective
A level of accuracy enough for most cases!
Modules
Nature of work: Defect vs Enhancements
Unit level defect vs Core Scenario Defect
Version No(s): Older versions inherently take more time for us!
29
30. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Let’s improve our hit rate… Step 3
Can we reduce the long tail of this distribution….?
Reduce the gap between Modal and Mean
Yes:
By pushing for greater flow (reducing WIP)
Keeping an eye on the age of the work items
Keep some visual indicators when the work items is close the modal value
(Amber) OR when it is closer to the mean value (Red)
30
31. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Let’s improve our hit rate… Step 4
Risk Management trims
the tail
31
Identify risks, their likelihood &
impact (delay that extends lead
time).
Eliminating risks or reducing
their impact trims the tail on
the distribution.
Trimming the tail moves the
mean to the left, increasing
delivery rate!
Slide from LKU Training Deck
85th
percentile
mean
Risks often
cause long
lead times
32. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Let’s improve our hit rate… Step 5
Let start the work at the right time… not too early and not too
late!
Not too early… because in the normal environment where Demand >
Supply, you, you could work on something else now, knowing that a
delay in starting will not risk your Completion Date
Not too late…
32
34. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
CoS mapped to Delay Cost Functions
Slide from LKU Training Deck
Class of service and its policiesColor Func
Expedite – white; critical and immediate cost of delay;
can exceed other kanban limit (bumps other work);
limit 1
Fixed date – orange; cost of delay goes up
significantly after deadline
Standard - yellow; increasing urgency, cost of delay is
shallow but accelerates before leveling out
Intangible – blue; cost of delay may be significant but
is not incurred until significantly later, if at all
timeimpact
time
impact
time
impact
time
impact
34
35. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
How easy it is to define the CoD
function?
You know what’s an Expedite work
items!
Product Management should be able
to help you define the “Fixed Date” or
“Intangible” work items
You might struggle to define the
curve for Standards but relative
scaling might be easy
35
40. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
We explained why detailed estimation or planning is unproductive in low
Flow Efficiency systems
End dates predictions aren’t deterministic
They should always be accompanied by a % of confidence
A practical, statistical, fast approach using Lead Time histograms
Lead Time histograms assimilate all system characteristics and eliminates personal
bias
Use CoS and work item characteristics to identify histogram that reflects your work
item most accurately
Use CoD functions, in combination with Lead Time histograms, to understand when
you should start your work
40
41. #LKIN17
@sudiptal
Thank you….
Reach me at:
@sudiptal
slahiri@digite.com
sudiptalahiri.wordpress.com
“Absorb what is useful, discard
what is useless and add what is
specifically your own”
Bruce Lee
Editor's Notes
“Customer Lead Time” is not the same as “System Lead Time”. Customer Lead Time starts when we pull the work (commit to do the work) and includes batch transfers on the delivery end.
Lead time is also affected by Flow Efficiency (see next slides)
Flow efficiency tells us how much of the time the work is moving (flowing) rather than waiting in some sort of delay.
When there is low flow efficiency, class of service can help improve lead time.
We can recognize Lead Time distribution in a curve. Learning to read and interpret the distribution curve is one way to understand opportunities for improvement. This shape is like saying, “Most of the time we deliver fairly quickly but sometimes it takes us much longer, and then gives us our range of predictability”.
Lead time histograms typically exhibit a Weibull distribution curve. Weibull is not a single distribution shape rather it is a family of distribution curves shaped by a parameter referred to as “little k”. A typical value for k is 1.5. The example shown here is from real data for software engineering of telecom-grade equipment and exhibits a k approximately equal to 1.4.
Knowing that lead time typically follows a Weibull distribution is a convenient shorthand for risk management and planning decisions. It is not important to obsess over specific shapes or values of k.
Knowing Lead Time allows for conversations about different delivery expectations and capabilities, based on actual data.
A lead time histogram provides us insight into service delivery capability. For a single service processing a single type of work, we would expect a single mode in the data regardless of how many classes of service are offered. This example has 2 clusters and hence appears multi-modal. The explanation for this is that 2 distinct types of work were being processed through the same workflow.
Our management challenge is that the risk is in the tail of the distribution.
Median is always less than the mean and lies between the mode and the mean. Median is less sensitive to the tail on distribution and hence less variable in the presence of assignable/special cause variation causing a long tail. However, it is the mean that is used in Little’s Law and therefore we do care about risks that affect the tail in the distribution when using Little’s Law to forecast.