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MAKING SCRUM
“MORE” EFFECTIVE
WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM OTHER
BODY OF KNOWLEDGE
ABOUT MYSELF
• Sudipta Lahiri (Sudi)
• 25+ years in the industry
• Agile/Lean practitioner (85%)
– ex-Head of Enginieering, Digite
• Led Development of SwiftKanban and SwiftALM products
– ex-Head of Professional Services
– Today, Head of Products
• Agile/Lean Coach/Consultant/Student (15%)
• Organize the LimitedWIP Societies in India
2
WHY THIS TALK?
• We have been following the SCRUM practices and doing the
ceremonies…
… but HAS THERE BEEN A FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT?
LET’S START WITH
THE BASICS…
THE FULL LIFE CYCLE
(FROM PMBOK)
Execut
e
Monitor
Plan
Initiate
Close
#NOPROJECTS
Requirements
Design
Development
Testing
Acceptance
SUCCESSFUL DELIVERY NEEDS
(FROM PMBOK)
• Scope Management
• Time Management
• Change Management
• Cost Management
• Quality Management
• Risk Management
• Communication Management
• Human Resource Management
• Partner Management
Agile Methods value the items on the left MORE!
OBJECTIVE OF THIS
TALK:
HIGHLIGHT SOME PERSPECTIVES
FROM OTHER BOK
PLAN
LET’S COVER TWO ASPECTS…
• Forecasting
– Assuming you are asked to give one for a given scope!
• Estimation
FORECASTING:
DETERMINISTIC OR PROBABILISTIC?
• MSP is Deterministic
• 99.9% of Management
Reporting is Deterministic… but
is that RIGHT?
• We make assumptions in estimates
• We make assumptions about
complexity
• We make assumptions of skillsets
• We make assumptions of requirement
clarity/volatility
• We make assumptions of risk
• … yet, FORECAST IS DETERMINISTIC!
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING:
MONTECARLO SIMULATION BASED…
• You simulate a set of
parameters
• Run 1000s of simulation runs
• Derive a distribution of Lead
Time with associated %
probability
FORECASTING:
ANOTHER ASPECT
• Sometimes, scope/expectation is defined and you have to forecast
schedule/resources, UPFRONT!
• SCRUM is based on a constant throughput/velocity
– We do find min and max; that captures variations not well understood
• What about the variations that we do understand?
– Constant teams with Constant skill profile…
– Does your throughput factor in seasonality?
– A critical lead(s) pulled out… for proposal, for helping another team?
FORECASTING:
THE AGILE EVM WAY…
• You need to UPFRONT plan as:
– Map your resource allocation
– May your expected timeline of what
features and stories will get done per
unit time, say monthly
• Yes, you will need to estimate too!
– Compare with actuals to get planned
and get schedule variance
– Get your time sheets; use that as cost
– Compare your planned resource
allocation with actual time to get cost
variance!
Original budget 48.57 MM 1020 MD
Original timeline 10
Original Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10
Productivity 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Overall Development Resources 14 14 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5
Overall ST Resources 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Overall Development Resources 14 14 18.5 18.5 16.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5
Overall ST Resources 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Technical Requirement 1 2 2 4 4 2 2
MMF 1
User Story 1.1 2 2 4 1 1
User Story 1.2 2 2 2 2 2
User Story 1.3 1 1 1 1 1
ST Resources 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1
MMF2
User Story 2.1 2 2 2 1 1
User Story 2.2 2 2 2 2 2
User Story 2.3 1 1 1.5 1.5 1.5
ST Resources 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1
MMF3
User Story 3.1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
ST Resources 1 1 1 1
MMF4
User Story 4.1 2 2 4 5 6 6 6
User Story 4.2 2 2 2 2 2
User Story 4.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
ST Resources 1 1 1.5 1.5 1.5
MMF5
User Story 5.1 2 2 4 5 6 6 6
User Story 5.2 2 2 2 2 2
User Story 5.3 1 1 1 1 1
ST Resources 1 1 1.5 1.5 1.5
Total (Current) 17 17 21.5 21.5 19.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5
Planned value 85 85 107.5 107.5 97.5 107.5 107.5 107.5 107.5 107.5
Cumm. Original Plan Value 85 170 278 385 483 590 698 805 913 1020
Weeks
AGILE EVM: CAPACITY VS TIMELINE
14
Original Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10
Overall Development
Resources 14 14 18.5 18.5 16.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5
Overall ST Resources 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Total (Current) 17 17 21.5 21.5 19.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5
Cumm. Original Plan
Value 85 170 278 385 483 590 698 805 913 1020
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
ManDays
Planned Value
Detailed resource
timeline level
planning at the Story
Level, time
consuming and full of
assumptions...
AGILE EVM: TRACKING EV
29-11-2016 15
• If you are using SCRUM with a Task Board, give 100% credit when full
story/feature is done.
• If you are using SCRUM with a Value Stream map
– Two alternatives:
• Give a certain % completion to each stage of the value stream completed on their estimated
size
– For example: Requirement done is 20% value earned, Design completed is 15% value
earned.... OR
• Stick to Agile emphasis on “working software” and give 100% value earned when a card is done
• Aggregate across the Board weekly and you will get the EV trend
• To track Actual Cost:
– Get a weekly resource allocation OR
– Get your TimeSheet data
AGILE EVM TRACKING: PV VS EV
29-11-2016 16
20 40
95
149
204
258
313
418
523
628
733
919
1104
1290
1475
1546
1616
1686
1757
1827
0 0 0
50 80 100
150
200
308
350
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
wk20wk21wk22wk23wk24wk25wk26wk27wk28wk29wk30wk31wk32wk33wk34wk35wk36wk37wk38wk39
Planned Value
Earned Value
Actual Cost
Schedule
Variance
Cost
Variance
EXECUTE:
BACKLOG
GROOMING
ESTIMATION
PLANNING POKER GOOD… BUT CONSIDER..
• Flow Efficiency
• Impact of business pressure for
Throughput improvement over
time
FLOW EFFICIENCY
(FROM THE KANBAN METHOD)
VALUE ADD (VS) NON-
VALUE ADD
(EVEN) FOR A FLOW BASED
SYSTEM…
If you agree that estimation is perhaps
a “questionable”, what alternative
criteria can be used?
SO, THINK COST OF DELAY
(PRINCIPLES OF PRODUCT FLOW DEVELOPMENT)
Cost of Starting
Delay
Cost of Starting
Delay
Cost of
Finishing
Delay
Cost of
Finishing
Delay
DEMAND SHAPING WITH RISK ASSESSMENT
(FROM ESP, ENTERPRISE SERVICES PLANNING)
DEFINE A RISK/IMPACT
FRAMEWORK
… AND THEN USE IT TO PRIORITIZE!
EXECUTE:
REQUIREMENT
DEFINITION
REQUIREMENTS DECOMPOSED RIGHT
• What if you don’t get small incremental changes/CRs OR defect fixes?
• What if you get a large BRD/Requirement Document and you need to
start from scratch?
• What if your requirements have been decomposed traditionally?
• We understand INVEST… but how do you go about it?
STORY MAPPING
(FROM JEFF PATTON)
• Build a role based
chronological sequence
• Visual and Powerful
• Prioritize your stories,
vertically
• Plan your Release boundaries
EXECUTE: DESIGN
DESIGN
(FROM LEAN ENGINEERING)
• Do we need a Design activity
separately OR it is part of
Construction?
• Do we need a Design
document?
• Do we need to get a review
done of Design document?
• Concurrent Design
– (vs) Point based Design
• Deferred Commitment
– Don’t decide if you don’t act on it
– Don’t lock yourself too early!
EXAMPLE: A DEPENDENCY BOARD
REQUIREMENT WHAT WE DECIDED?
EXECUTE:
DEVELOPMENT
FROM MULTIPLE BODIES OF
KNOWLEDGE
FROM XP
• Pair Programming
FROM DEVOPS
• CI
– When do you run builds?
– How frequently do you run
builds?
– How long do your builds take?
– How frequently do you leave the
build broken?
EXECUTE: TEST
AGILE TESTING
THE WRONG WAY…
UI
Services
Unit
Tests
THE RIGHT WAY…
UI
(5%)
Services
(15%)
Unit Tests
(80%)
Manu
al
C
O
S
T
R
O
I
EXECUTE:
PACKAGE/RELEASE
(FROM THE DEVOPS WORLD)
• Continuous Deployment
MONITOR:
KAIZEN
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
RETROSPECTIVES
• A periodic activity…
• Looking back
• Often, in a system that is still
not in control
TOYOTA KATA
• A continuous process…
– One small incremental step at a
time
• Works better when you have a
pattern or rhythm in your work
– Look for flow/uniform cadence
VALUE STREAM ANALYSIS
(TASK BOARD VS SEEING THE PROCESS)
RISK AND
COMMUNICATION
MANAGEMENT
RISK MANAGEMENT:
(AT A TEAM LEVEL)
FROM SAFE BOK…
• A defined activity of PI planning
• Risk Management Strategies
– Resolved, Owned, Accepted,
Mitigated
FROM PMBOK
• Qualitative Risk Management
• Quantitative Risk Management
• Risk Management Strategies:
– Mitigation, Acceptance,
Transference
COMMUNICATION MANAGEMENT
(FROM SAFE: TO THE PROGRAM LEVEL)
Dependenc
y Tracking
… BUT WE CAN DO MORE!
MULTIPLE POINTS OF
FAILURE…
• Managing stakeholders
– Managing egos and taking
everyone along
• Managing Risks
– Beyond the team/program
KANBAN CADENCES
• … from The Kanban Method
• A set of meetings at defined
frequency to cover defined
objectives!
Strategy
Review
Risk
Review
Monthly
Service
Delivery
Review
Bi-WeeklyQuarterly
Kanban
Meeting
Daily
Operations
Review
Monthly
Replenishment/
Commitment
Meeting
Weekly
Delivery
Planning
Meeting
Per delivery cadence
change change
change
change
change
change
change change
change
info
info
info
info
info
info
info
info
info
change info
Doing things better
Focus on Service Delivery
Doing
the
right
things
Getting things done!
IN SUMMARY…
ACROSS THE LIFE CYCLE, YOU CAN
LEVERAGE FROM OTHER BOK(S)
Execut
e
Monitor
Plan
Initiate
Close
Requirements
Design
Development
Testing
Acceptance
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME TODAY...
• For any questions or
clarifications, reach me at:
– @sudiptal
– slahiri@digite.com
– lahiri.sudipta@gmail.com
• I share my experiences at:
– http://sudi-thoughts.blogspot.in/
• Join Limited WIP Society
Meetup
46

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"Making Scrum "More" Effective : What can we learn from Other Body of Knowledge" - by Sudipta Lahiri @ Scaling Agile Institute

  • 1. MAKING SCRUM “MORE” EFFECTIVE WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM OTHER BODY OF KNOWLEDGE
  • 2. ABOUT MYSELF • Sudipta Lahiri (Sudi) • 25+ years in the industry • Agile/Lean practitioner (85%) – ex-Head of Enginieering, Digite • Led Development of SwiftKanban and SwiftALM products – ex-Head of Professional Services – Today, Head of Products • Agile/Lean Coach/Consultant/Student (15%) • Organize the LimitedWIP Societies in India 2
  • 3. WHY THIS TALK? • We have been following the SCRUM practices and doing the ceremonies… … but HAS THERE BEEN A FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT?
  • 5. THE FULL LIFE CYCLE (FROM PMBOK) Execut e Monitor Plan Initiate Close #NOPROJECTS Requirements Design Development Testing Acceptance
  • 6. SUCCESSFUL DELIVERY NEEDS (FROM PMBOK) • Scope Management • Time Management • Change Management • Cost Management • Quality Management • Risk Management • Communication Management • Human Resource Management • Partner Management Agile Methods value the items on the left MORE!
  • 7. OBJECTIVE OF THIS TALK: HIGHLIGHT SOME PERSPECTIVES FROM OTHER BOK
  • 9. LET’S COVER TWO ASPECTS… • Forecasting – Assuming you are asked to give one for a given scope! • Estimation
  • 10. FORECASTING: DETERMINISTIC OR PROBABILISTIC? • MSP is Deterministic • 99.9% of Management Reporting is Deterministic… but is that RIGHT? • We make assumptions in estimates • We make assumptions about complexity • We make assumptions of skillsets • We make assumptions of requirement clarity/volatility • We make assumptions of risk • … yet, FORECAST IS DETERMINISTIC!
  • 11. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING: MONTECARLO SIMULATION BASED… • You simulate a set of parameters • Run 1000s of simulation runs • Derive a distribution of Lead Time with associated % probability
  • 12. FORECASTING: ANOTHER ASPECT • Sometimes, scope/expectation is defined and you have to forecast schedule/resources, UPFRONT! • SCRUM is based on a constant throughput/velocity – We do find min and max; that captures variations not well understood • What about the variations that we do understand? – Constant teams with Constant skill profile… – Does your throughput factor in seasonality? – A critical lead(s) pulled out… for proposal, for helping another team?
  • 13. FORECASTING: THE AGILE EVM WAY… • You need to UPFRONT plan as: – Map your resource allocation – May your expected timeline of what features and stories will get done per unit time, say monthly • Yes, you will need to estimate too! – Compare with actuals to get planned and get schedule variance – Get your time sheets; use that as cost – Compare your planned resource allocation with actual time to get cost variance!
  • 14. Original budget 48.57 MM 1020 MD Original timeline 10 Original Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Productivity 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Overall Development Resources 14 14 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 Overall ST Resources 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Overall Development Resources 14 14 18.5 18.5 16.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 Overall ST Resources 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Technical Requirement 1 2 2 4 4 2 2 MMF 1 User Story 1.1 2 2 4 1 1 User Story 1.2 2 2 2 2 2 User Story 1.3 1 1 1 1 1 ST Resources 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1 MMF2 User Story 2.1 2 2 2 1 1 User Story 2.2 2 2 2 2 2 User Story 2.3 1 1 1.5 1.5 1.5 ST Resources 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1 MMF3 User Story 3.1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ST Resources 1 1 1 1 MMF4 User Story 4.1 2 2 4 5 6 6 6 User Story 4.2 2 2 2 2 2 User Story 4.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 ST Resources 1 1 1.5 1.5 1.5 MMF5 User Story 5.1 2 2 4 5 6 6 6 User Story 5.2 2 2 2 2 2 User Story 5.3 1 1 1 1 1 ST Resources 1 1 1.5 1.5 1.5 Total (Current) 17 17 21.5 21.5 19.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 Planned value 85 85 107.5 107.5 97.5 107.5 107.5 107.5 107.5 107.5 Cumm. Original Plan Value 85 170 278 385 483 590 698 805 913 1020 Weeks AGILE EVM: CAPACITY VS TIMELINE 14 Original Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9 Wk10 Overall Development Resources 14 14 18.5 18.5 16.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 Overall ST Resources 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Total (Current) 17 17 21.5 21.5 19.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 Cumm. Original Plan Value 85 170 278 385 483 590 698 805 913 1020 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 ManDays Planned Value Detailed resource timeline level planning at the Story Level, time consuming and full of assumptions...
  • 15. AGILE EVM: TRACKING EV 29-11-2016 15 • If you are using SCRUM with a Task Board, give 100% credit when full story/feature is done. • If you are using SCRUM with a Value Stream map – Two alternatives: • Give a certain % completion to each stage of the value stream completed on their estimated size – For example: Requirement done is 20% value earned, Design completed is 15% value earned.... OR • Stick to Agile emphasis on “working software” and give 100% value earned when a card is done • Aggregate across the Board weekly and you will get the EV trend • To track Actual Cost: – Get a weekly resource allocation OR – Get your TimeSheet data
  • 16. AGILE EVM TRACKING: PV VS EV 29-11-2016 16 20 40 95 149 204 258 313 418 523 628 733 919 1104 1290 1475 1546 1616 1686 1757 1827 0 0 0 50 80 100 150 200 308 350 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 wk20wk21wk22wk23wk24wk25wk26wk27wk28wk29wk30wk31wk32wk33wk34wk35wk36wk37wk38wk39 Planned Value Earned Value Actual Cost Schedule Variance Cost Variance
  • 18. ESTIMATION PLANNING POKER GOOD… BUT CONSIDER.. • Flow Efficiency • Impact of business pressure for Throughput improvement over time
  • 19. FLOW EFFICIENCY (FROM THE KANBAN METHOD) VALUE ADD (VS) NON- VALUE ADD (EVEN) FOR A FLOW BASED SYSTEM…
  • 20. If you agree that estimation is perhaps a “questionable”, what alternative criteria can be used?
  • 21. SO, THINK COST OF DELAY (PRINCIPLES OF PRODUCT FLOW DEVELOPMENT) Cost of Starting Delay Cost of Starting Delay Cost of Finishing Delay Cost of Finishing Delay
  • 22. DEMAND SHAPING WITH RISK ASSESSMENT (FROM ESP, ENTERPRISE SERVICES PLANNING) DEFINE A RISK/IMPACT FRAMEWORK … AND THEN USE IT TO PRIORITIZE!
  • 24. REQUIREMENTS DECOMPOSED RIGHT • What if you don’t get small incremental changes/CRs OR defect fixes? • What if you get a large BRD/Requirement Document and you need to start from scratch? • What if your requirements have been decomposed traditionally? • We understand INVEST… but how do you go about it?
  • 25. STORY MAPPING (FROM JEFF PATTON) • Build a role based chronological sequence • Visual and Powerful • Prioritize your stories, vertically • Plan your Release boundaries
  • 26.
  • 28. DESIGN (FROM LEAN ENGINEERING) • Do we need a Design activity separately OR it is part of Construction? • Do we need a Design document? • Do we need to get a review done of Design document? • Concurrent Design – (vs) Point based Design • Deferred Commitment – Don’t decide if you don’t act on it – Don’t lock yourself too early!
  • 29. EXAMPLE: A DEPENDENCY BOARD REQUIREMENT WHAT WE DECIDED?
  • 31. FROM MULTIPLE BODIES OF KNOWLEDGE FROM XP • Pair Programming FROM DEVOPS • CI – When do you run builds? – How frequently do you run builds? – How long do your builds take? – How frequently do you leave the build broken?
  • 33. AGILE TESTING THE WRONG WAY… UI Services Unit Tests THE RIGHT WAY… UI (5%) Services (15%) Unit Tests (80%) Manu al C O S T R O I
  • 35. (FROM THE DEVOPS WORLD) • Continuous Deployment
  • 37. CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT RETROSPECTIVES • A periodic activity… • Looking back • Often, in a system that is still not in control TOYOTA KATA • A continuous process… – One small incremental step at a time • Works better when you have a pattern or rhythm in your work – Look for flow/uniform cadence
  • 38. VALUE STREAM ANALYSIS (TASK BOARD VS SEEING THE PROCESS)
  • 40. RISK MANAGEMENT: (AT A TEAM LEVEL) FROM SAFE BOK… • A defined activity of PI planning • Risk Management Strategies – Resolved, Owned, Accepted, Mitigated FROM PMBOK • Qualitative Risk Management • Quantitative Risk Management • Risk Management Strategies: – Mitigation, Acceptance, Transference
  • 41. COMMUNICATION MANAGEMENT (FROM SAFE: TO THE PROGRAM LEVEL) Dependenc y Tracking
  • 42. … BUT WE CAN DO MORE! MULTIPLE POINTS OF FAILURE… • Managing stakeholders – Managing egos and taking everyone along • Managing Risks – Beyond the team/program KANBAN CADENCES • … from The Kanban Method • A set of meetings at defined frequency to cover defined objectives!
  • 43. Strategy Review Risk Review Monthly Service Delivery Review Bi-WeeklyQuarterly Kanban Meeting Daily Operations Review Monthly Replenishment/ Commitment Meeting Weekly Delivery Planning Meeting Per delivery cadence change change change change change change change change change info info info info info info info info info change info Doing things better Focus on Service Delivery Doing the right things Getting things done!
  • 45. ACROSS THE LIFE CYCLE, YOU CAN LEVERAGE FROM OTHER BOK(S) Execut e Monitor Plan Initiate Close Requirements Design Development Testing Acceptance
  • 46. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME TODAY... • For any questions or clarifications, reach me at: – @sudiptal – slahiri@digite.com – lahiri.sudipta@gmail.com • I share my experiences at: – http://sudi-thoughts.blogspot.in/ • Join Limited WIP Society Meetup 46

Editor's Notes

  1. The KMP II class is built around the 7 cadences of the Kanban Method. The focus is on institutionalizing the feedback loops and developing templates for each meeting or review including a list of who will attend and what information they must bring to the meetings. The objective is to drive improvement and evolutionary change through management feedback loops implemented as a series of rituals happening on cadences tailored to the specific needs of the business. Strategy Review is out-of-scope until the Portfolio Management module of the ESP class.