The document summarizes Nigeria's economic conditions in March 2016. Key points include:
- Nigeria's economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter and is expected to grow only 2% in Q1 2016.
- Inflation spiked to a 34-month high of 11.4% due to forex shortages and fuel scarcity.
- Unemployment and underemployment rose sharply, especially among youth.
- The stock market and FAAC allocations declined while the "misery index" measuring inflation and unemployment increased.
- Regional and global factors like lower Chinese and commodity prices pose challenges for Nigeria's economic outlook.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
Political Risk Could Undermine the Global Recovery. Review Dun & Bradstreet's research on global trade and the political risks that could impair global economic outlook. Dun & Bradstreet partners with international finance departments, World Bank Governance Indicator publications, and other global economic outlook experts to create comprehensive fiscal world view.
The CBN has come out with a rash of new regulations to defend the naira, the latest being the suspension of dollar cash deposits into domiciliary accounts in Nigeria. The naira has swung like a pendulum in the parallel market between N208 and N245. Most investors are deferring any decisions until there is some clarity, as to the Buhari economic direction.
Federal and state government officials have cut back on international travels and reckless expenditure, which has resulted in airline summer load factors dropping to 65%. Power supply from the grid is up at 4,800MW while airport immigration and customs officers are behaving themselves professionally.
In the meantime there has been a sharp lull in economic activity with retail sales of garments and electronics down to 30%. There is also the problem of 55% of flats in Lekki being vacant and rents likely to fall.
The impact of the uncertainty and slowdown on investment, output and profit margins is discussed in this edition of the August LBS Executive Breakfast session with B.J. Rewane and the FDC team.
Enjoy your read....
Here are the key points from the Central Bank section:
- The central bank has increased the public sector credit growth ceiling to 10.9% for the second half of the fiscal year, up from its previous projection of 8.5%, in light of higher growth in the first half.
- Interest rates on savings certificates offered by the central bank (around 12%) remain significantly higher than deposit rates offered by commercial banks (6-7%).
- The central bank's monetary policy statement projected GDP growth will be between 7.5-8.2% for fiscal year 2018-19.
- A priority is bringing down default loans by ensuring better corporate governance in the financial sector.
1) The global economy is experiencing slower growth as potential growth rates decline around the world due to factors like aging populations and slowing productivity.
2) Political risks are rising as major countries like the US, Europe, and China hold elections, which could undermine investor risk appetite.
3) Monetary policy alone cannot boost growth significantly and fiscal policy is needed, but the transition to more active fiscal policy carries risks of overheating economies.
4) Developed markets are expected to see slightly faster growth and higher rates in 2017, while the US is likely to pursue an "America First" agenda under a Republican government.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2014WB_Research
The document is a report from the World Bank that provides projections for the global economy. It forecasts that global GDP growth will increase from 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2014, and then stabilize at 3.4-3.5% in 2015-2016. Growth is expected to be led by high-income countries as their recoveries continue. Developing country growth will also increase but at a slower pace than previously expected, reaching 5.3% in 2014, 5.5% in 2015, and 5.7% in 2016. Acceleration will be limited in regions that have already fully recovered. Capital flows to developing countries are projected to decline only marginally from 4.6% to 4.
This report outlines the global macroeconomic trends that are expected to impact businesses over the next five years. Valuable insight includes the challenges of the post-recession recovery, as well as the risks and opportunities facing businesses in established and emerging regional economies.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
Political Risk Could Undermine the Global Recovery. Review Dun & Bradstreet's research on global trade and the political risks that could impair global economic outlook. Dun & Bradstreet partners with international finance departments, World Bank Governance Indicator publications, and other global economic outlook experts to create comprehensive fiscal world view.
The CBN has come out with a rash of new regulations to defend the naira, the latest being the suspension of dollar cash deposits into domiciliary accounts in Nigeria. The naira has swung like a pendulum in the parallel market between N208 and N245. Most investors are deferring any decisions until there is some clarity, as to the Buhari economic direction.
Federal and state government officials have cut back on international travels and reckless expenditure, which has resulted in airline summer load factors dropping to 65%. Power supply from the grid is up at 4,800MW while airport immigration and customs officers are behaving themselves professionally.
In the meantime there has been a sharp lull in economic activity with retail sales of garments and electronics down to 30%. There is also the problem of 55% of flats in Lekki being vacant and rents likely to fall.
The impact of the uncertainty and slowdown on investment, output and profit margins is discussed in this edition of the August LBS Executive Breakfast session with B.J. Rewane and the FDC team.
Enjoy your read....
Here are the key points from the Central Bank section:
- The central bank has increased the public sector credit growth ceiling to 10.9% for the second half of the fiscal year, up from its previous projection of 8.5%, in light of higher growth in the first half.
- Interest rates on savings certificates offered by the central bank (around 12%) remain significantly higher than deposit rates offered by commercial banks (6-7%).
- The central bank's monetary policy statement projected GDP growth will be between 7.5-8.2% for fiscal year 2018-19.
- A priority is bringing down default loans by ensuring better corporate governance in the financial sector.
1) The global economy is experiencing slower growth as potential growth rates decline around the world due to factors like aging populations and slowing productivity.
2) Political risks are rising as major countries like the US, Europe, and China hold elections, which could undermine investor risk appetite.
3) Monetary policy alone cannot boost growth significantly and fiscal policy is needed, but the transition to more active fiscal policy carries risks of overheating economies.
4) Developed markets are expected to see slightly faster growth and higher rates in 2017, while the US is likely to pursue an "America First" agenda under a Republican government.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2014WB_Research
The document is a report from the World Bank that provides projections for the global economy. It forecasts that global GDP growth will increase from 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2014, and then stabilize at 3.4-3.5% in 2015-2016. Growth is expected to be led by high-income countries as their recoveries continue. Developing country growth will also increase but at a slower pace than previously expected, reaching 5.3% in 2014, 5.5% in 2015, and 5.7% in 2016. Acceleration will be limited in regions that have already fully recovered. Capital flows to developing countries are projected to decline only marginally from 4.6% to 4.
This report outlines the global macroeconomic trends that are expected to impact businesses over the next five years. Valuable insight includes the challenges of the post-recession recovery, as well as the risks and opportunities facing businesses in established and emerging regional economies.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in October 2015. It discusses key economic indicators such as GDP growth estimates of 2.5% for Q3, a rise in power supply to 4,500MW, stable government revenue of N442.6 billion, inflation increasing to 9.3%, and lower interest rates following a reduction in the cash reserve ratio. It also summarizes global and commodity market conditions, and their impact on the domestic economy. Overall, the outlook expects inflation to rise further to 9.4% in September and interest rates to remain below 10%.
The article discusses the Eurozone economy and prospects for escaping a repetitive cycle of weak growth. While consumption and exports are expected to increase slowly in 2015, corporate investment is a key area to monitor as weak investment has limited short-term growth and long-term economic potential. Surveys indicate investment may revive in 2015, though credit availability is not the constraint - companies have ample cash. Structural reforms are still needed to achieve sustained growth.
Global growth was subdued at 2.1% in 2013 but is expected to improve to 3.0-3.3% in 2014-2015. Inflation remains low worldwide due to excess capacity and unemployment. Unemployment remains high, especially in Europe, with rates over 25% in Greece and Spain. International trade growth weakened to 2.3% in 2013 but is projected to rise to 4.6-5.1% in 2014-2015. Capital flows to emerging markets declined in 2013 and volatility increased due to tapering of US monetary stimulus. Risks to the outlook include a disorderly exit from quantitative easing and slowing growth in large emerging markets.
Political risk quarterly update Q3 2016Graeme Cross
This summary provides an overview of political risk ratings changes and trends discussed in the Q3 2016 political risk quarterly report from Aon. Four countries saw deteriorations in their overall risk ratings - Azerbaijan, Djibouti, Kuwait, and Zimbabwe. Only Madagascar improved, being upgraded to medium-high risk. Deteriorations were driven by factors like increased political violence, regional conflicts, weakened fiscal situations, and instability. Asia was noted as seeing modestly improving ratings, while challenges remain around infrastructure investment programs in countries like India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Risks in Latin America are also trending positively overall despite issues in Venezuela. The Middle East and Africa continue facing pressure from low oil prices and conflicts.
The document discusses the difference between recession and stagflation using global case studies. It provides definitions and examples of each. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth along with rising unemployment and falling inflation. Examples given include recessions in the US, Brazil, and Russia. Stagflation is defined as slowing economic growth combined with high unemployment and high inflation. Examples given include stagflation in OECD countries in the 1970s-1980s due to oil shocks. The document concludes that while Nigeria is experiencing negative growth and inflation, falling monthly inflation indicates the country is currently in a recession rather than stagflation.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and discusses how falling oil prices and a rising US dollar are impacting consumer markets. Key points include:
- Falling oil prices are boosting consumer purchasing power but hurting oil-exporting economies. Prices may continue falling in the short term but rebound in 1-2 years as US production declines.
- The rising US dollar is disinflationary domestically but inflationary for other countries, posing risks for emerging markets with dollar-denominated debts. The dollar will likely continue rising in early 2015.
- China's economy is slowing as export markets weaken and efforts to curb shadow banking contribute to deceleration, though the
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and discusses how falling oil prices and a rising US dollar are impacting consumer markets. Key points include:
- Falling oil prices are boosting consumer purchasing power but hurting oil-exporting countries. Prices may continue falling in the short-term but rebound in 1-2 years as US production declines.
- The rising US dollar is disinflationary domestically but inflationary for other countries, posing risks for emerging markets with dollar-denominated debts. The dollar will likely continue rising in early 2015.
- China's economy is slowing as export markets weaken and efforts to curb shadow banking contribute to deceleration, though
The document provides an overview of global markets in the 4th quarter of 2015. It discusses economic and market conditions in key regions:
- The US economy saw upward revisions to 3rd quarter GDP growth and a stronger-than-expected December jobs report, but manufacturing contracted. Global M&A reached record levels and the Fed raised interest rates.
- Growth remains weak in Europe and unemployment is over 10%, leading economists to expect the ECB to further ease monetary policy. Slower Chinese growth has reduced exports, particularly of manufactured goods.
- Other emerging markets like Russia and Brazil are in recession amid falling commodity prices and a weaker global economy. A political crisis in Brazil has intensified as impeachment proceedings began
World bank zambia economic brief 6 december 2015Gregory Smith
The document summarizes recent economic developments in Zambia and analyzes the country's power crisis. It finds that Zambia faces significant economic challenges in 2015-2016 due to external headwinds like falling commodity prices and domestic issues including a severe power crisis and large fiscal deficits. Growth is projected to slow below 4% in 2015 and 3-3.5% in 2016-2017. The power crisis is straining all sectors of the economy and urgent action is needed to increase generation capacity and reduce reliance on expensive emergency power. Long-term solutions like improving planning and increasing renewable energy are also discussed.
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
Our extensive coverage of the Americas this month
includes an update on the United States that will examine
whether the disappointing economic growth data for the
fourth quarter of 2015 is cause for deep concern, assess
the risk of further battling between President Barack
Obama and the opposition-controlled Congress that
could derail a weak but sustained recovery, and provide an
early assessment of how the November presidential and
congressional elections might turn out. PRS will also issue
an update on Guatemala, where a political crisis driven
by revelations of a massive network
THIRD QUARTER 2016
RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE
And The Band Played On…
“When democratic governments create economic calamity, free markets get the blame.”-Jack Kemp
“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.”- Mark Twain
Thus far, the calamities predicted by the pundits that would result from the Brexit vote to leave the European Union have not been as severe as anticipated. Perhaps this is due to the building geopolitical and economic stresses that have diverted the focus from Brexit to other issues. Furthermore, the impact of Brexit will likely take some time to discern as the trade, migration, political and other ramifications evolve over the coming months and years. Meanwhile, governments globally continue in their efforts to stimulate economic growth with what appears to be diminishing results.
Since the inauguration on January 20, we have all been inundated by media reports on the first one hundred days of the Trump administration. While stock market participants entered the year with apparently high expectations, towards the end of this 90 day quarter there has been wavering of sentiment as the realization that not all of Trump’s campaign promises are likely to be delivered.
Policy Uncertainty Increased by Abbott’s Ouster - Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing Liberal Party (LP), and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the National Party (NP), would lose
This document provides an overview of global economic news and reports in the first quarter of 2009. It discusses the economic slowdown affecting most regions of the world due to the global financial crisis. While developing countries are expected to continue growing, their growth rates will decline substantially. The document also summarizes economic conditions in various Asian countries and regions, finding that Asia is generally faring better than other parts of the world due to healthy foreign reserves and banking systems.
Sprung Investment Management is an independent investment management firm that serves high net worth private clients. It focuses on creating customized portfolios to achieve clients' long-term investment goals through principled analysis and integrity. The firm takes a value-driven approach to selecting undervalued securities with a margin of safety for preserving capital and delivering income and growth. It has a track record of low volatility returns since 2005 and performance numbers are available upon request.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. It notes that June saw signs of economic inflection in Nigeria, including the disappearance of fuel queues, a rise in the oil price, and monetary policy reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria. However, GDP growth is still estimated to be negative for the full year. The outlook is positive but painful as Nigeria stumbles into economic reforms, with the exchange rate expected to find a new equilibrium around N295-N310 per dollar. Winners in the stock market will be companies able to source raw materials internationally and leverage parent companies.
Complementing the annual Political Risk Map, Aon’s political risk newsletter is developed in partnership with Roubini Global Economics, an independent, global research firm founded in 2004 by renowned economist Nouriel Roubini. The newsletter is released on a quarterly basis and provides insight into levels and types of Political Risk in non-EU and -OECD countries.
Este documento proporciona instrucciones para crear una presentación de OpenOffice sobre contaminación acústica. La presentación debe tener 7 diapositivas cubriendo: 1) portada, 2) definición y foto de contaminación acústica, 3) principales fuentes y 2 fotos, 4) 2 efectos físicos y 2 fotos, 5) 2 efectos psicológicos y 2 fotos, 6) 4 medidas y 2 fotos, 7) 4 medidas para el IES. La presentación será evaluada en base a contenido, ortografía, originalidad, colores, tip
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in October 2015. It discusses key economic indicators such as GDP growth estimates of 2.5% for Q3, a rise in power supply to 4,500MW, stable government revenue of N442.6 billion, inflation increasing to 9.3%, and lower interest rates following a reduction in the cash reserve ratio. It also summarizes global and commodity market conditions, and their impact on the domestic economy. Overall, the outlook expects inflation to rise further to 9.4% in September and interest rates to remain below 10%.
The article discusses the Eurozone economy and prospects for escaping a repetitive cycle of weak growth. While consumption and exports are expected to increase slowly in 2015, corporate investment is a key area to monitor as weak investment has limited short-term growth and long-term economic potential. Surveys indicate investment may revive in 2015, though credit availability is not the constraint - companies have ample cash. Structural reforms are still needed to achieve sustained growth.
Global growth was subdued at 2.1% in 2013 but is expected to improve to 3.0-3.3% in 2014-2015. Inflation remains low worldwide due to excess capacity and unemployment. Unemployment remains high, especially in Europe, with rates over 25% in Greece and Spain. International trade growth weakened to 2.3% in 2013 but is projected to rise to 4.6-5.1% in 2014-2015. Capital flows to emerging markets declined in 2013 and volatility increased due to tapering of US monetary stimulus. Risks to the outlook include a disorderly exit from quantitative easing and slowing growth in large emerging markets.
Political risk quarterly update Q3 2016Graeme Cross
This summary provides an overview of political risk ratings changes and trends discussed in the Q3 2016 political risk quarterly report from Aon. Four countries saw deteriorations in their overall risk ratings - Azerbaijan, Djibouti, Kuwait, and Zimbabwe. Only Madagascar improved, being upgraded to medium-high risk. Deteriorations were driven by factors like increased political violence, regional conflicts, weakened fiscal situations, and instability. Asia was noted as seeing modestly improving ratings, while challenges remain around infrastructure investment programs in countries like India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Risks in Latin America are also trending positively overall despite issues in Venezuela. The Middle East and Africa continue facing pressure from low oil prices and conflicts.
The document discusses the difference between recession and stagflation using global case studies. It provides definitions and examples of each. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth along with rising unemployment and falling inflation. Examples given include recessions in the US, Brazil, and Russia. Stagflation is defined as slowing economic growth combined with high unemployment and high inflation. Examples given include stagflation in OECD countries in the 1970s-1980s due to oil shocks. The document concludes that while Nigeria is experiencing negative growth and inflation, falling monthly inflation indicates the country is currently in a recession rather than stagflation.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and discusses how falling oil prices and a rising US dollar are impacting consumer markets. Key points include:
- Falling oil prices are boosting consumer purchasing power but hurting oil-exporting economies. Prices may continue falling in the short term but rebound in 1-2 years as US production declines.
- The rising US dollar is disinflationary domestically but inflationary for other countries, posing risks for emerging markets with dollar-denominated debts. The dollar will likely continue rising in early 2015.
- China's economy is slowing as export markets weaken and efforts to curb shadow banking contribute to deceleration, though the
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and discusses how falling oil prices and a rising US dollar are impacting consumer markets. Key points include:
- Falling oil prices are boosting consumer purchasing power but hurting oil-exporting countries. Prices may continue falling in the short-term but rebound in 1-2 years as US production declines.
- The rising US dollar is disinflationary domestically but inflationary for other countries, posing risks for emerging markets with dollar-denominated debts. The dollar will likely continue rising in early 2015.
- China's economy is slowing as export markets weaken and efforts to curb shadow banking contribute to deceleration, though
The document provides an overview of global markets in the 4th quarter of 2015. It discusses economic and market conditions in key regions:
- The US economy saw upward revisions to 3rd quarter GDP growth and a stronger-than-expected December jobs report, but manufacturing contracted. Global M&A reached record levels and the Fed raised interest rates.
- Growth remains weak in Europe and unemployment is over 10%, leading economists to expect the ECB to further ease monetary policy. Slower Chinese growth has reduced exports, particularly of manufactured goods.
- Other emerging markets like Russia and Brazil are in recession amid falling commodity prices and a weaker global economy. A political crisis in Brazil has intensified as impeachment proceedings began
World bank zambia economic brief 6 december 2015Gregory Smith
The document summarizes recent economic developments in Zambia and analyzes the country's power crisis. It finds that Zambia faces significant economic challenges in 2015-2016 due to external headwinds like falling commodity prices and domestic issues including a severe power crisis and large fiscal deficits. Growth is projected to slow below 4% in 2015 and 3-3.5% in 2016-2017. The power crisis is straining all sectors of the economy and urgent action is needed to increase generation capacity and reduce reliance on expensive emergency power. Long-term solutions like improving planning and increasing renewable energy are also discussed.
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
Our extensive coverage of the Americas this month
includes an update on the United States that will examine
whether the disappointing economic growth data for the
fourth quarter of 2015 is cause for deep concern, assess
the risk of further battling between President Barack
Obama and the opposition-controlled Congress that
could derail a weak but sustained recovery, and provide an
early assessment of how the November presidential and
congressional elections might turn out. PRS will also issue
an update on Guatemala, where a political crisis driven
by revelations of a massive network
THIRD QUARTER 2016
RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE
And The Band Played On…
“When democratic governments create economic calamity, free markets get the blame.”-Jack Kemp
“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.”- Mark Twain
Thus far, the calamities predicted by the pundits that would result from the Brexit vote to leave the European Union have not been as severe as anticipated. Perhaps this is due to the building geopolitical and economic stresses that have diverted the focus from Brexit to other issues. Furthermore, the impact of Brexit will likely take some time to discern as the trade, migration, political and other ramifications evolve over the coming months and years. Meanwhile, governments globally continue in their efforts to stimulate economic growth with what appears to be diminishing results.
Since the inauguration on January 20, we have all been inundated by media reports on the first one hundred days of the Trump administration. While stock market participants entered the year with apparently high expectations, towards the end of this 90 day quarter there has been wavering of sentiment as the realization that not all of Trump’s campaign promises are likely to be delivered.
Policy Uncertainty Increased by Abbott’s Ouster - Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing Liberal Party (LP), and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the National Party (NP), would lose
This document provides an overview of global economic news and reports in the first quarter of 2009. It discusses the economic slowdown affecting most regions of the world due to the global financial crisis. While developing countries are expected to continue growing, their growth rates will decline substantially. The document also summarizes economic conditions in various Asian countries and regions, finding that Asia is generally faring better than other parts of the world due to healthy foreign reserves and banking systems.
Sprung Investment Management is an independent investment management firm that serves high net worth private clients. It focuses on creating customized portfolios to achieve clients' long-term investment goals through principled analysis and integrity. The firm takes a value-driven approach to selecting undervalued securities with a margin of safety for preserving capital and delivering income and growth. It has a track record of low volatility returns since 2005 and performance numbers are available upon request.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. It notes that June saw signs of economic inflection in Nigeria, including the disappearance of fuel queues, a rise in the oil price, and monetary policy reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria. However, GDP growth is still estimated to be negative for the full year. The outlook is positive but painful as Nigeria stumbles into economic reforms, with the exchange rate expected to find a new equilibrium around N295-N310 per dollar. Winners in the stock market will be companies able to source raw materials internationally and leverage parent companies.
Complementing the annual Political Risk Map, Aon’s political risk newsletter is developed in partnership with Roubini Global Economics, an independent, global research firm founded in 2004 by renowned economist Nouriel Roubini. The newsletter is released on a quarterly basis and provides insight into levels and types of Political Risk in non-EU and -OECD countries.
Este documento proporciona instrucciones para crear una presentación de OpenOffice sobre contaminación acústica. La presentación debe tener 7 diapositivas cubriendo: 1) portada, 2) definición y foto de contaminación acústica, 3) principales fuentes y 2 fotos, 4) 2 efectos físicos y 2 fotos, 5) 2 efectos psicológicos y 2 fotos, 6) 4 medidas y 2 fotos, 7) 4 medidas para el IES. La presentación será evaluada en base a contenido, ortografía, originalidad, colores, tip
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise boosts blood flow, releases endorphins, and promotes changes in the brain which help regulate emotions and stress levels.
Este documento contiene información sobre varios temas relacionados con la creación de páginas web, incluyendo explicaciones sobre cómo funciona Internet y la World Wide Web, detalles sobre el lenguaje HTML, y descripciones de herramientas para diseñar y publicar páginas web como Kompozer. También incluye detalles sobre enlaces hipertextuales, hojas de estilo, y gestores de contenido. El documento proporciona instrucciones y especificaciones técnicas sobre varios aspect
Roller Derby is an assertive team sport which is played on roller skates and requires large amounts of skill, agility and flexibility. This talk will delve into the world of Roller Derby and what is necessary for team success. It uses Roller Derby to illustrate how behaviours we think are useful can sometimes get in the way of success. This leads to a discussion of patterns and anti patterns in Agile software development.
What is the first thing we do when a major issue occurs in a live system? Sort it out of course. Then we start the hunt for the person to blame so that they can suffer the appropriate punishment. What do we do if a person is being awkward in the team and won’t agree to our ways of doing things? Ostracise them of course, and see how long it is until they hand in their notice – problem solved.
This highly interactive talk delves into why humans have this tendency to blame and punish. It looks at real examples of punishment within the software world and the results which were achieved. These stories not only cover managers punishing team members but also punishment within teams and self-punishment. We are all guilty of some of the behaviours discussed.
This is aimed at everyone involved in software development. After the talk attendees will understand:
• Why we tend to blame and punish others.
• The impact of self-blame.
• The unintended (but predictable) results from punishment.
• The alternatives to punishment, which get real results.
Revista digital Derecho Procesal LaboralKariannyGD
El documento describe la evolución de las leyes y procesos laborales en Venezuela. Inicialmente, en 1940 se estableció una jurisdicción laboral autónoma mediante la Ley Orgánica de Tribunales y de Procedimiento del Trabajo. Posteriormente, con la Constitución de 1999 se creó la Ley Orgánica Procesal del Trabajo para establecer un nuevo proceso y organización de la jurisdicción laboral que corrigiera los aspectos negativos anteriores. Actualmente, el proceso laboral se rige por principios como oralidad, gratuidad, in
Unit 113: Maintain and use carpentry and joinery hand tools gsr101
This document introduces different types of chisels used in carpentry. It identifies five common chisels - bevelled edge, firmer, mortice, paring and gouge. It describes the key features and uses of each chisel type. The document also discusses chisel sizes, identifies the main parts of a chisel, and explains how gouges are distinguished by whether their cutting edge is ground on the inside or outside of the tool.
When I was a child, I always wanted to be a superhero. I wanted to save the world and make everyone happy. But I knew that I'd need superpowers to make my dreams come true. So I used to embark on these imaginary journeys to find intergalactic objects from planet Krypton, which was a lot of fun, but didn't yield much result. When I grew up and realized that science fiction was not a good source for superpowers, I decided instead to embark on a journey of real science, to find a more useful truth.
This document discusses risk assessments for painting and decorating work. It explains that risk assessments are legally required to identify hazards, potential harms, and control measures to improve safety. Examples of hazards from painting include fumes, dusts, and chemicals from paints and solvents that could harm workers. The document provides guidance on completing risk assessment templates and emphasizes the importance of risk assessments for protecting worker health and safety.
Unit 113: Maintain and use carpentry and joinery hand tools gsr101
The document discusses hazards associated with using hand tools in carpentry and joinery. It identifies misuse and improper maintenance as the two most common hazards, which can result in tools breaking and causing injury. Personal protective equipment like safety glasses and boots should always be worn when using hand tools. Hand tools should be stored correctly in toolboxes, bags, belts or rolls when not in use to prevent damage and reduce risks of injury.
El documento presenta información sobre la entrevista como técnica de investigación. Explica que la entrevista permite obtener datos mediante un diálogo entre el entrevistador y el entrevistado con el fin de recopilar información relevante. Describe los tipos de entrevistas, características, partes, tipos de preguntas, herramientas, normas y cómo terminar una entrevista de manera efectiva. Concluye que la entrevista es una forma importante de interacción social y una técnica útil para la investigación.
Unit 201: Health safety and welfare in constructiongsr101
The document discusses health and safety requirements for handling materials and equipment on construction sites. It covers requirements for welfare facilities as defined by the Construction Design and Management regulations (CDM), such as toilets and washing facilities. It also discusses risks from noise and proper protection, safe handling of materials through lifting techniques and aids to prevent injury, and risks of drugs and alcohol on site affecting safety. The key topics are requirements for site facilities, noise protection, safe lifting practices, and avoiding drugs and alcohol while working.
Entra en abcdeEle.com/blog/imperativo para más información y mira nuestra web para encontrar más recursos, materiales y actividades para tus clases de español ( ELE )
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. Some key points:
- Expectations of economic recovery were dashed as the naira fell sharply, growth estimates declined, and power output remained low.
- Inflation jumped to 16.5% while business activity showed only marginal signs of recovery. Oil prices declined further, hurting government revenues.
- Global factors like slower growth in China, lower commodity prices, and cautious monetary policies in developed countries pose risks for Nigeria's economy.
- Domestic challenges include high inflation, fuel scarcity and price increases, and weak manufacturing activity, though some indicators showed slight improvements. The outlook remains uncertain.
The document provides an economic analysis and outlook for Nigeria and the global economy in May 2016. Some key points:
- Nigeria's GDP declined to 1.9% in Q1 2016 due to poor power supply and low oil production. Inflation spiked to 13.2% due to higher food and fuel prices. Unemployment is expected to increase to 30%.
- Globally, the IMF lowered its 2016 growth forecast to 3.2% due to weak conditions. The US saw slow growth of 0.5% in Q1. China's growth slowed slightly but remained within target at 6.7%. Sub-Saharan Africa growth is forecast at 3.3%.
- Domestically
Judged against the post-election feeling of enthusiasm and exhilaration on May 29, the current underwhelming feeling of the Nigerian elite appears bizarre and contradictory. Why are they feeling so despondent and anxious? Is this the natural sequence that follows long waiting periods and anticipation??
In spite of this crisis of false expectations, the macro-economic scorecard reveals a balanced performance with major successes in power supply, petrol queues, restructuring of the oil sector and restoring the international reputation and pride of Nigeria. The salary arrears and contractor debts have been regularised and leakages are being blocked. The building blocks are being laid slowly. The truth is that it is taking too long.
The administration has not come out with a clear economic policy or blueprint. This macro-economic ambiguity is borne out of the sheer gravity of the problems and the dilemma that the possible options throw up. The recent plunge in oil prices in August is aggravating a difficult situation.
The impact of this policy void is increasing the tentativeness of investors and is being exacerbated by the rash of administrative measures. The volatility in the Forex and interest rate markets is evidence of consumer and investor anxiety. A cabinet is likely to be announced in a few days and will douse most of these fears.
These are some of the burning questions addressed by Bismarck Rewane and his team of analysts, in this edition of the LBS breakfast session.
This document provides a monthly economic report and analysis for Nigeria in November 2015. It summarizes key economic indicators and developments in Nigeria and globally. Some of the main points include:
- Nigeria's GDP contracted for the third consecutive quarter, growing at an estimated 2% in Q3.
- Inflation rose to 9.4% in September and is expected to increase further. External reserves declined slightly.
- The Central Bank imposed new rules for bank verification numbers that caused turmoil in the foreign exchange market and sent the naira lower.
- Oil production increased marginally but remained below budget benchmarks, reducing government revenues shared between federal, state, and local governments.
The Dominican Republic experienced strong GDP growth of 7% in 2014, making it the best performing Caribbean economy for the second year in a row. GDP growth is forecast to remain solid at around 4.4-4.5% in 2015-2016. In 2014, tourism arrivals increased by 9.4% to a record 5.7 million visitors and tourism revenues exceeded $5.6 billion. The government took advantage of the strong economic conditions to improve financial stability by issuing $2.5 billion in bonds and using the funds to pay off debt owed to Venezuela. GDP growth, moderate inflation, a narrowing current account deficit, and macroeconomic stability are expected to continue supporting the economy if structural reforms are implemented to improve
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic challenges in 2016 and provides an outlook for 2017. Some key points:
- 2016 was a difficult year for Nigeria with negative GDP growth, high inflation, currency depreciation and other issues.
- 2017 may see a slow and uneven recovery if oil prices remain around $55 per barrel, allowing GDP growth of around 1%. High inflation and exchange rate volatility are still risks.
- The recovery path will be treacherous, with scenarios ranging from a fast V-shaped rebound to a continued recession depending on factors like oil prices, the Niger Delta situation, and monetary/fiscal policies.
- Events to watch that could influence the economy in 2017 include oil price
- The document analyzes global economic growth trends and forecasts from 2008-2017. It summarizes The World Bank's forecast of moderate global GDP growth rising to 3.0% in 2015 and averaging 3.3% through 2017.
- The strategist argues The World Bank is overly optimistic given factors like China's economic slowdown and the end of the commodity super cycle. Slow global growth is expected to continue in the near future.
- Key themes discussed include diverging economic policies driving US dollar strength and deflation, China's transition from manufacturing to services, and tailwinds for short-term US growth amid a challenging global environment.
The document provides an overview of economic conditions in Nigeria and globally in October 2016. It discusses the rejection of Nigeria's $30 billion external debt plan, falling oil production and revenues, high interest rates, and inflation. Globally, it notes steady but sluggish growth, and highlights economic successes in telecoms and construction when markets are allowed to function. It analyzes Nigeria's exchange rates and concludes several economic indicators are concerning, with money supply, GDP growth, national debt, and inflation rated as red.
The document summarizes the current state of the US economy and monetary policy outlook. It notes that the economy is expected to accelerate in 2017, with the labor market strengthening and inflation approaching the Fed's 2% target. While risks are balanced, potential downside risks include trade wars, a stronger dollar, rising interest rates, and weak global growth. Monetary policy remains accommodative, and further rate increases will be data-dependent.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
This document provides a summary of Nigeria's macroeconomic updates for 2013. It discusses topics such as the global economy, Nigeria's political environment, macroeconomic indicators, inflation outlook, exchange rates, monetary policy rates, crude oil estimates in the 2013 budget, the impact of JP Morgan on government debt instruments, and an overall outlook for the rest of the year. Key points include expectations that inflation will remain in single digits by year's end, the monetary policy rate will be maintained, and oil production may struggle to reach targeted levels in the 2013 budget.
The document provides an economic overview and outlook for 2016, analyzing GDP growth, employment, inflation, commodity prices, and other indicators for major countries and regions around the world. It includes data and projections from sources like the IMF, World Bank, BLS, and BEA on topics such as output growth, unemployment, oil prices, currency exchange rates, and industry employment for areas including the US, Brazil, Russia, China, and Maryland. The analysis finds mixed economic performance globally and modest growth for the US economy in 2016.
Industrial production and economic growth in Mongolia continued to slow in the first quarter of 2015, with mining and electricity production experiencing weaker growth compared to previous periods. Exports also declined significantly in February and March due to falling commodity prices, worsening the current account balance. Deteriorating asset quality and tighter credit conditions in the banking sector added pressure to the economy.
1) Mongolia's economic growth continued to slow in the first quarter of 2015, with industrial production growth falling to 13% from 16% in the previous quarter due to weaker mining and electricity production.
2) The current account balance deteriorated in February and March as export growth declined sharply, while imports continued to drop significantly.
3) Weak revenue performance continued to strain Mongolia's fiscal situation, with budget revenues in the first three months falling short of plans by 7.2% and tighter spending controls being implemented.
Cowry market review for 2015 and outlook for 2016Tobi Ajayi
The document provides a review of the Nigerian economy and outlook for 2016. In 2015, real GDP growth slowed in the first two quarters but picked up to 2.84% in Q3 as crude oil production increased under the new administration. However, lower global oil prices reduced oil revenues. Manufacturing was neutral with expansion in production and orders offset by weakened demand and employment contraction. Foreign exchange scarcity also negatively impacted trade. While inflation remained in single digits, the currency depreciated due to declining reserves.
The document discusses several pressing economic questions facing Nigeria in 2022, including whether the Russian-Ukraine crisis could lead to World War 3, if Nigeria is approaching a fiscal cliff, and whether the naira exchange rate is doomed. It notes that while higher oil prices benefit Nigeria's oil revenue, rising global interest rates and debt service costs pose challenges. Alternative government funding options like increased borrowing are discussed but come with their own risks.
I wanted to pass along our 4th quarter Economic Insights piece that we have just put together. This is a 15 page chart book that reviews market performance and looks at the various events that will impact the markets in the coming months. Of particular note, I think you will find the correlation of the markets and the U.S. election interesting (page 8). We also point out a number of themes (on pages 4-5) that could affect all of our client portfolios. As always, we use a lot of graphs and pictures to try and paint a simple story.
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic performance and outlook in 2014 and 2015. In 2014, GDP growth remained strong between 6.2-6.5% despite global headwinds. However, declining oil prices, currency pressures, and interest rate hikes impacted the economy in Q4. The 2015 budget assumes lower oil prices and revenues, aiming to transition Nigeria away from an oil-driven economy. Macroeconomic trends are mixed with interest rates expected to remain elevated as the central bank works to curb excess liquidity and inflation. Challenges around the national elections and oil price volatility pose risks to the economic outlook.
The document discusses the economy and monetary policy of Russia. It provides economic indicators for Russia from 2010-2014, showing GDP growth slowing after 2011. It outlines the monetary policy framework and highlights four stages of monetary policy in Russia from 2000-2015: 1) rapid money growth and reserves until 2008, 2) crisis response 2008-2009 with GDP decline and currency devaluation, 3) partial return to previous policies from 2010-2011, and 4) inflation targeting and changes due to external instability from 2012 onward. Charts show trends in monetary indicators, interest rates, inflation, and trade balances over this period.
- The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell back into negative territory, indicating economic contraction. Dangote will reopen its tomato factory this month.
- Oil prices remained above $56 per barrel, which is positive for government revenue. However, the negative PMI and low capacity utilization could lead to job losses.
- Prices for commodities like maize, tomatoes, and cement varied slightly across key cities in Nigeria but were generally stable. E-commerce prices for some consumer goods were around 5.9% higher than market prices on average.
The MPC maintained the status quo on monetary policy parameters while expressing concerns about global volatility and weaknesses in domestic inflation fundamentals. While cautious, the MPC acknowledged that money supply growth contributes to inflation and hinted that a more accommodative policy may come in 2017, supported by potential GDP growth, higher oil prices, and government economic plans. The MPC guidance focused on a more accommodative stance, increased monitoring of money supply, and financial system soundness.
The document provides advice to an investor who invested $100k in the Nigerian stock market in 2015 and has seen the value of their portfolio decline to less than $40,000 due to currency fluctuations and market performance. The advisor notes that a 150% return would be required to recover the original dollar value and that exiting the market now to cut further losses may be preferable to waiting and risking an even greater loss. They suggest the investor consider their risk tolerance and that only a highly optimistic investor would expect a quick rebound of the Nigerian stock market given current economic conditions.
The document summarizes economic conditions in Nigeria from 2016 to early 2017. It notes that while the President made promises in 2016 to eliminate fuel shortages, improve security, and crack down on corruption, many of these promises went undelivered as oil production slumped, unemployment rose, and inflation increased. The economy struggled in 2016 with GDP declining. Early signs in 2017 suggest factors like higher oil prices and a rising manufacturing index could lead to modest GDP growth, but uncertainty remains around issues like the exchange rate and upcoming elections.
The document summarizes an economic bulletin from Financial Derivatives Company predicting that Nigeria's headline inflation rate will rise to 18.2% in October 2016, representing a 0.3% increase from September and the highest rate in 11 years. It also notes that the naira appreciated against the dollar in both the official and parallel markets during the month. However, dollar scarcity still pushed domestic prices higher. The report forecasts continued inflationary pressures during the festive season as consumer demand and expectations rise, though consumer resistance to higher prices has also increased due to lower incomes.
1) Domestic commodity prices in Nigeria saw mixed movements, with rice falling to N20,000 per 50kg bag while garri increased to N15,000 per 50kg bag and palm oil rose to N17,000.
2) Brent crude fell 2.74% to $49.98 per barrel and WTI declined 2.65% to $49.18 per barrel on concerns over OPEC's output deal, though losses were capped by a drawdown in US crude inventories.
3) Cocoa prices increased 1.24% due to threats to production from illegal mining in Ghana, while sugar prices dropped 1.46% on steady supply and limited demand. Wheat and corn futures rose
This document summarizes and discusses the distortions created by the Mercator map projection, which has been widely used in classrooms and shaped people's perceptions of world geography. While useful for navigation, the Mercator projection greatly exaggerates the size of countries in the northern hemisphere like Canada, Russia, Europe, and the US compared to their actual sizes. In contrast, Africa appears much smaller on the Mercator map than in reality. This distortion could have unintentionally promoted European imperialism by making Western nations seem more powerful. However, no map projection can perfectly represent the spherical earth on a flat surface without some distortions.
1) The vacancy factor in Nigeria increased from 165 in March 2016 to 172 in June 2016, with the highest vacancy rate in Lekki at 65%.
2) Both the residential and commercial real estate indices rose in the second quarter of 2016, though the market continues to deteriorate due to challenges like high inflation and the economic recession.
3) Increasing building material prices and declining purchasing power are expected to further dampen housing demand and lead to more movement to the suburbs, while the real estate market recovery is anticipated in 2017.
Domestic commodity prices in Nigeria were mixed, with some prices like palm oil and maize rising slightly in Lagos, Kano, and Onitsha while others held steady. The naira closed at N330/$ in the interbank market. Consumer goods stocks declined, with the consumer goods sub index losing 1.6%. International oil prices fell over 2% on rising US crude inventories and a stronger dollar. Agricultural commodity prices also moved lower due to oversupply concerns, although corn prices rose slightly on good US crop conditions. Analysts expect further declines in oil and soft commodity prices due to persistent oversupply issues.
The Central Bank of Nigeria tightened its monetary policy rate to 14% annually in an effort to curb headline inflation which had risen to 16.5%. This rate hike aimed to increase dollar inflows to support the foreign exchange market, reduce external reserve depletion, boost national savings, and reduce regulatory arbitrage between banks and the CBN. In the short term, the higher interest rates were expected to lead to appreciation of the naira exchange rate against the dollar in both the interbank and parallel markets. However, inflation in Nigeria has largely been driven by supply shocks which may not respond to interest rate adjustments. The higher borrowing costs could also increase corporate failures, non-performing loans, and government debt service costs, inflicting
The Monetary Policy Committee made an audacious move by increasing the Monetary Policy Rate by 200 basis points to 14% to combat high inflation, contrary to market expectations that favored stimulating growth over inflation. Inflation had spiked to 16.5%, while the interest rate remained at 12%, fuelled by supply shocks and forex scarcity. The MPC highlighted its quest to achieve a positive rate of return to attract foreign investors and deepen the forex market in order to strengthen the Naira and temper rising input costs. However, tightening monetary policy during a recession risks plunging the economy further into recession through the paradox of thrift.
The Vacancy Factor Index for Q2 2016 came in at 72% for June, indicating a marginal rise in vacant properties in high-end neighborhoods of Lagos. The rise was expected given GDP contraction and high rental defaults. Vacancy rates were highest in Lekki, which also has the most developments but few uncompleted projects. Victoria Island had the lowest vacancy due to mixed commercial and residential use. Declines in the index are only expected when GDP and business conditions improve to boost demand.
Headline inflation in Nigeria soared to an 11-year high of 16.5% in June, confounding analysts who expected a marginal decline. While a new foreign exchange regime began on June 20th, the dysfunctional market continued to be a key driver of inflation. Food prices rose due to increases in the prices of fish, meat, and other foods. Transportation costs also increased despite a slight fall in petrol prices, as diesel prices rose substantially. Looking ahead, monetary policymakers will have to balance controlling inflation with supporting economic growth as they determine interest rates.
Headline inflation in Nigeria soared to an 11-year high of 16.5% in June, confounding analysts who expected a marginal decline. While a new foreign exchange regime began on June 20th, the dysfunctional market continued to be a key driver of inflation. Food prices rose due to increases in the prices of fish, meat, and other foods. Transportation costs also increased despite a slight fall in petrol prices, as diesel prices rose substantially. Looking ahead, monetary policymakers will have to balance controlling inflation with supporting economic growth as they determine interest rates.
The document provides current commodity prices for various goods in three Nigerian cities - Lagos, Kano, and Onitsha. It then provides further details on commodity prices at different markets within Lagos and Kano, noting prices have remained stable. The document also discusses factors driving inflation in Nigeria, including fuel prices and supply issues, and their impact on food prices. Finally, it provides brief updates on movements in stock prices, oil prices, and agricultural commodity prices.
Headline inflation in Nigeria increased sharply to a record 13.7% in April 2016, continuing the trend of rising prices. Several factors contributed to higher inflation, including a 67.6% increase in petrol prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate that saw the naira depreciate to N355/$, and persistent power shortages. The core inflation index, which excludes volatile food prices, rose to 13.4% due to higher fuel and electricity costs. Food inflation also increased. Looking ahead, further rises in inflation are expected in the short term due to currency depreciation, fuel prices hikes, and reduced food supplies.
The document lists current commodity prices in three Nigerian cities - Lagos, Kano, and Onitsha. It shows the prices of items like cement, cassava, maize, flour, sugar, rice, palm oil, beans, semovita, and pasta. Domestic commodity prices have remained stable. The document also discusses rice imports, the quality of local rice, herdsmen threatening food security, and stock market performance.
The document discusses Nigeria's currency swap deal with China. It explains that the deal involves Nigeria depositing a portion of its foreign reserves in yuan with China's central bank in exchange for an equal amount in yuan. This will allow Nigerian importers to pay for Chinese goods in naira and Chinese exporters to pay for Nigerian oil in naira. While the deal could boost trade between the two countries, it may increase Nigeria's economic dependence on China and will not directly strengthen the naira or curb inflation in Nigeria. The deal may also lead to more Chinese imports and investment in Nigeria.
Headline inflation in Nigeria spiked to a record high of 12.8% in March, exceeding the Central Bank of Nigeria's ceiling of 9%. This unprecedented rise in inflation confounded monetary policymakers and posed a major policy challenge. Food prices increased by 1.4% due to higher transportation and logistics costs, while core inflation rose 1.1% driven by imported inflation, electricity tariff hikes, and fuel shortages. The document predicts inflation will rise further in April but at a slower pace, and that Nigeria's exclusion from an emerging market index and the specter of interest rate hikes will continue undermining the stock market and investors.
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LBS April Presentation
1. Monthly Economic News and Views
Lagos Business School
Executive Breakfast Meeting
Presented by B.J. Rewane
Financial Derivatives Company Limited
April 6, 2016
Squandering a Golden Economic Opportunity
2. 2
Outline
March in Review
Global & Regional Context
Outlook for April/May
Policy Direction & the IMF Article IV Review
Business Proxies & Stock Market
Political Risk Analysis
3. 3
The Squandering of a Golden Economic Opportunity
“There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures”
-Brutus, Julius Caesar,Act 4
If an opportunity is omitted, you will find yourself
stranded in miserable shallows
6. 6
Macro-Economic Scorecard
S/N Indicator Position as at March 29, 2015 Position as at March, 2016 Percentage Change
1 Market Capitalization (N’ Bn) 10,720 8, 690 (-18.94)
2 FAAC (N’bn) 435 345 (-6.76)
3 M2 (N’trn) 19.14 20.49 (Feb) 7.05
4 CBN PMI 48.9 45.5 (-6.95)
5 Vacancy Factor - Residential (%) 25 11.4 (-13.60)
6 Vacancy Factor - Commercial (%) 20.33 33.33 (-13.00)
7 Power grid (MW) 4,044.6 2,030 (-49.8)
8 Misery Index (%) 16 21.8 5.8
9 NIBSS Transaction(N’bn)
Cheques 548 501.17 (-8.55)
PoS
30 46.14 53.8
In 12 months there have been a general deterioration in macroeconomic conditions
Source: NBS, OPEC, CBN, NSE, FDC Research
7. 7
Scarcity Bites and the Budget Languishes
Nigerian economy slides into a double dip slowdown
Economy expected to contract for the second consecutive
quarter to 2% in Q1‟16
2015 growth now estimated at 2.79%
First time in decades when Nigeria has underperformed SSA
average
8. 8
Scarcity Bites and the Budget Languishes
Contraction of economic activity has its genesis in a misaligned
exchange rate
A consequence of sharply lower oil prices: 68.1% and
deteriorating terms of trade
Compounded by chronic shortages of inputs of power, fuel and
forex
9. 9
Scarcity Bites and the Budget Languishes
Economic imbalances exacerbated by:
A dogmatic obsession with exchange rate rigidity
A convoluted rationing of forex being abused by operators and regulatory
arbitrage
Price control contradictions in the downstream petroleum sector
Chronic underinvestment in the power sector
Strategic acts of economic sabotage by vested interest groups
Aided by collusion with insiders and policy making collaborators
11. 11
Scarcity Bites and the Budget Languishes
Factors curtailing growth include:
Trade credit evaporation
Shrinking supplier credit and bills for collection
Cold feet by export credit agencies
Import restrictions
Astronomical cost of forex plus smuggling
Power failure from the grid
12. 12
PMI Up in March
PMI data from both FBN and CBN increased
in March
FBN up from 50.6 to 54
CBN up from 45.5 to 45.9
Mainly due to inventory build up
Hiring headcount is down
Suggesting that inventory build up is defensive and
speculative as a hedge against possible currency
devaluation
52.6
54.4 54.2
44.6
50.6
54
49.2
51.2 51.2
47.2
45.5
45.9
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16
FBN CBN Threshold
Source: CBN, FBN Quest
13. 13
Power Down Sharply in March
Power output from grid down sharply to 2,030MW in March
from 2,695MW
System collapsed for a few hours to zero output
First time this century
High temperatures averaged 33ºC and humidity of 80%-85%
Sweltering heat and massive use of air conditioning are tasking
the grid
14. 14
Headline Inflation Spikes and will rise again
Headline inflation reached a 34-month high of 11.4%
Spurred by forex and petrol shortage
Nigeria among the 12 most expensive countries in Africa
5.00
7.00
9.00
11.00
13.00
Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16
Monthly (YoY) Inflation Rate vs. MPR
Headline Inflation All items less farm produce Food Inflation MPR
Source: NBS
15. 15
Propelled by a Combination of Factors
Low
Low
Low
Seasonality
Tomatoes
N6,000 (1Basket)
Pepper
N4,500 (1 Basket)
Yam
N500 (1 medium tuber)
Price Elasticity
16. 16
Low
Cost Push/ Smuggling
Moderate
High
Low
Transport fares up
200%
Manufactured finished
goods up 20%
Palm Oil
N9,600 (30L)
Noodles
N1,800 (1 carton)
Propelled by a Combination of Factors
Price Elasticity
18. 18
Unemployment and Underemployment Up Sharply
A lagging indicator of falling corporate profitability, sales and margins
Nominal figures are more startling when analysed demographically
Unemployment is higher at the lower age bracket
Q3’15 Q4’15
15-24 years 25-34years 15-24 years 25-34years
Unemployment 17.8% 10.8% 19% 11.4%
Underemployment 31.8% 18.5% 34.5% 19.9%
Source: NBS
19. 19
Misery Index Up
The Misery index analysis confirms a sense of national desperation and
anger
Unemployment + Inflation = Misery Index
10.4% + 11.4% = 21.8%
When it increases in 2 consecutive quarters it results in electoral
defeat or a sharp rise in disapproval ratings
Nigeria‟s ranking among miserable states is 6th
20. 20
Monetary Conditions
Money supply grew marginally in February
Shrank in March after the CRR and MPR increase
Average long opening position in march was N306bn
608,969.19
817,519.18
566,659.97 542,564.00
306,481.65
-
100,000.00
200,000.00
300,000.00
400,000.00
500,000.00
600,000.00
700,000.00
800,000.00
900,000.00
Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16
Average opening position (N'm)
21. 21
FAAC Down
The FAAC allocation (revenue shared by the states) has been sliding
since 2015
In spite of improved revenue collection
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Sept'15 Oct' 15 Nov' 15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16*
FAAC (N/bn)
22. 22
Stock Market
FY‟15 corporate revenue up 3.18%, at par with GDP growth
FY‟15 PBT down by 3.83%
Stock market scott-free lost 17.17% in Q1‟16
Volatility up 19.99%
One year dollar adjusted return (-32.94%)
Average P/E up to 8.26x
AVDT down by 17.86% to N2.29bn
23. 23
External Reserves Accretion
External reserves accretion of $40m in March to $27.86bn
Imports and payment cover of 4.51 months
Total forex sold by CBN up to $921bn in March
Highest monthly volume in recent times
Backlog of payments reduced marginally
Airline unremitted funds now in excess of $600m
Parallel market stable at N320-N324/$
26. 26
US Economy Resilient
The U.S economy showing strength in spite of election
distractions
Real GDP growth up to 1.4% in Q4‟15
Initial estimates were for a growth of 1%
242,000 jobs were added in February
Unemployment ticked up by 0.1% to 5%
27. 27
US Economy Resilient
Fed held interest rates steady at 0.25%-0.5% p.a.
JanetYellen says US interest rate increases will be slower
Alluding to the fact that global economic growth will be weaker in
2016
Inflation eased to 1% in February from 1.4% in January
Next Fed open markets committee meeting is on April 26/27
Interest rates are likely to be unchanged and dovish stance maintained
28. 28
Euro Zone
Caught between the Brussels bomb blasts and immigration
problems
The EU is trying hard to avoid a deflationary spiral
The ECB reduced its benchmark interest rate to 0%
Deposit facility rate was cut by 10bps to (-0.4%)
Lending facility was lowered by 5bps to 0.25%
29. 29
China: Slowing Growth, Rising Debt
Chinese GDP growth rate of 6.9% in 2015 is the slowest pace in
25 years
2nd largest economy in the world and SSA‟s largest investor
Growth target of 6.5% - 7% in 2016
China increased its debt to GDP rate projection to 3% in 2016
from 2.3% in 2015
30. 30
China: Slowing Growth, Rising Debt
Devalued its currency over 4 times between 2015 and 2016
Has external reserves of $3.2trn
The Chinese currency will now join the four other Reserve
currencies in the Special Drawing Right (SDR)
US dollar, British pound, Euro and Japanese yen
31. 31
Currency Markets
Dollar depreciated 1.33% against the basket of currencies since the
March FOMC meeting
The Euro gained 4.24% against the dollar to $1.1218
Canadian dollar appreciated by 5.26% to $0.76/CAD
Highest level since March 23
32. 32
Implications
The US remains a major trading partner of Nigeria
China is the leading supplier of finished goods
Nigerian terms of trade improved marginally in Q1from 29.1
Price of exports increased relative to imports
Buhari and economic team are visiting China next week
To raise additional funding to finance capital projects
34. 34
SSA- Nigeria Comparison
2016 SSA Nigeria
Population (m) 978 187
GDP ($’bn) 1,395.2 458
GDP per head ($) 1,427 2,448
Real GDP growth (%) 2.9 2.7
Inflation (%) 8.2 11.4
% of SSA
19.1
32.8
71.5% above SSA
-0.2% below SSA
3.2% above SSA
35. 35
SSA- Q1’16 Review
3 countries (Ghana, Uganda and Kenya) have reported lower
inflation in March
While Nigeria & South Africa are reporting a spike in inflation
In Q1, four SSA countries increased interest rates to defend their
currencies
In Angola and Ghana, Central Bank Chiefs shown the door
Most emerging market currencies gained from higher commodity
prices
36. 36
Ghana
Abdul-Nashiru Issahku is the new governor of the Bank of Ghana
After former Governor Kofi Wampah retired early
Issahku has been deputy governor since July 2013
Worked previously at theWorld Bank, African Development bank
and Export Development and Agricultural Investment Fund
37. 37
SSA: Economic Outlook
Growth in the East African Community will be boosted by
regional integration
Economic growth in Central andWest Africa is forecast to slow
from 3% in 2015 to 2.9% in 2016
Ghana‟s economy to soften to 3.7% in 2016, due to election
related tensions and high inflation
Growth in Cameroon will moderate slightly to 4.7% in 2016
from 5.2% in 2015
38. 38
SSA 2016 Outlook
Real GDP growth in SSA will slow to 2.9% in 2016 from 3.2%
African Oil producing countries are bracing themselves up for
weaker fiscal revenues and increased pressure to cut spending in
2016
Major challenge: maintaining a policy stance that supports economic
growth while combating weaker commodity prices and global
uncertainty
41. 41
Commodity Prices in March
Average oil prices may increase to as high as $42pb in April
April 17 oil producers meeting unlikely to achieve any
meaningful agreement
Iran and Saudi Arabia already bickering
42. 42
Commodity Prices in March – Grain Prices Bearish
Weak outlook for grain prices in April
Large stockpiles and prospects of a bumper harvest
Increased production driven by lower costs and weaker currencies
Cocoa prices to moderate as weather conditions improve in top
growing region inWest Africa – Ivory Coast
Expectation of a shortfall in production will support sugar prices
44. 44
IMF Article IV Consultation – Nigeria to Work Harder
Growth in 2016 is expected to decline further to 2.3%
Non-oil growth projected to slow to 3.1% in 2016
Oil growth to remain negative at (-4.8%)
IMF expects Nigerian Bonny Light to average $36.1pb in 2016
Inflation expected to remain in the double digit region at 12%
45. 45
IMF Article IV Consultation
Directors encouraged implementation of an independent price-
setting mechanism to address petroleum subsidy
Welcomed tightening of monetary policies and recommended
targeting price stability
Urged gradual increase inVAT and expanding tax base
Stressed the need for structural reforms to enhance
competitiveness and support investment
46. 46
IMF Article IV Consultation
Key risks to the Outlook
Lower oil prices,
Shortfalls in non-oil revenues,
Further deterioration in finances of state and local Governments,
Deepening disruptions in private sector activity due to constraints
on access to foreign exchange
Resurgence in security concerns
47. Budget 2016 Passed at Last – Buhari Set to Sign
Exchange rate: N197/$.
Fiscal deficit: N2.2trn
Benchmark price of $38pb
.
Production of 2.2mbpd
Senate has passed the 2016 budget of N6.06trn
0.33% below proposed budget of N6.08trn
Left the key assumptions unchanged
47
49. Funding the Fiscal Gap
Is N6.06trn reflationary or balanced against
2015?
Depends on the exchange rate used
President and Finance Minister to
source for international loans
Chinese EX-IM≈ $3bn2016: N6.06trn÷N300= $20.2bn
2016: N6.06trn÷N197= $30.76bn
World Bank≈$2bn
AfDB≈$1bn
2015: N4.49trn÷N190= $23.63bn
2015: N4.49trn÷N220= $20.41bn
Parallel Market
Interbank Market
-1.04%
30.17%
% Change
49
50. 50
S&P Cuts Outlook to Negative
S&P cuts Nigeria‟s outlook to negative, rating remains at B+
Due to exchange rate pressures
Factors that could lead to a downgrade
Deterioration of Nigeria‟s fiscal or external accounts
Increased stress in the financial sector than currently expected
Possibility of a credit downgrade would make it more difficult to
access international funds
51. 51
MPC Tightens Policy Stance
MPC resumes tightening after three months of accommodative
monetary stance
MPR up 100bps to 12% p.a.
CRR up 250bps to 22.5%
Asymmetric corridor narrowed to +2/-5%
52. 52
MPC Tightens Policy Stance
MPC empowered to formulate forex policy
Meaning that exchange rate changes can be made in between
meetings
After the
World Bank spring meeting
Meeting with potential lenders
Exchange rate policy review may take place in May
53. 53
Policy
Government is targeting aggregate revenues of $12.5bn in 2016
The new N50 per transaction stamp duty is a major earner
A new communications tax on voice, data and Pay TV will fetch
$100m per month
New vehicle registration tax based on the value (price of car) to
be introduced
55. FAAC Allocation to Remain Low
FAAC allocation likely to increase in March to N360bn
Average oil prices in March were 15% higher compared to February
Oil production down due to outages in the Forcados pipeline
Source: FMF, FDC Research
55
442.6
389.9
473.83
369.88 387.77 370.4 345 360
0
100
200
300
400
500
Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16
FAAC (N'bn)
55
56. 56
Volume & Value of Transactions to increase in April/May
Transactions volume and value to increase after budget approval by
President
Source: NIBSS
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
PoS Cheque Neft
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Volume (‘000)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
PoS Cheque Neft
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Value(N’bn)
57. Ships Awaiting Berth Down Sharply
Ships awaiting berth will hover around 25
Below 2014‟s average of 70 and 2013‟s average of 94
Lower profit margins and shift in consumption patterns will continue to hurt
imports
May increase in April due to an increase in orders for goods such as petrol
Source: NPA, FDC Research
57
28
0
100
200
300
400
0
20
40
60
80
Ships Awaiting Berth
Parallel Rate (N/$)
57
58. Rig Count will Remain Flat in Q2
Nigeria‟s rig count in March is 3, down from 6
Sharply lower levels than the U.S and other producers
PIB and new fiscal incentives must change before new investments and rigs
Source: Baker Hughes, FDC Research
1543
394
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
US
Canada
Nigeria
58
59. Power Generation to Improve Slightly
Power output from the national grid
at 2500MW
Approximately 50% lower than the 12-
month high
Bombing of the Forcados pipeline
disrupting gas supplies
Hydro power is improving because
of the rainy season
Source: Nigeria Power Reform
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Power Generation (Average) MW
59
62. 62
Retail Industry
Customer traffic to the shopping malls lower due to fuel shortage
Retail prices for groceries, weekly and monthly needs are up
approximately 15%
Consumers continue to down trade by patronising value brands –
buying cheaper goods
Prices are reflecting the parallel market exchange rate and shortages
Replacement cost pricing is being used for inventory valuation
63. 63
Retail Industry
Wholesalers hoarding in anticipation of price increases has
reduced
Inventory levels of cheaper goods growing
Price volatility will increase as interest rates spike making carrying
costs high and prohibitive
Importers of products now sourcing goods from countries with
weak currencies and quality products
South Africa, Brazil,Argentina,Turkey etc
64. 64
Domestic Retail Industry
Stability in the forex market will reflect in retail price level in April
Cost pressures will persist with fuel scarcity, forex scarcity and naira
weakness
Shift in consumer demand towards necessities and price inelastic
goods
Brand variety of goods offered will shrink
Inventory levels of cheaper goods will increase
65. 65
Retail Industry
Prices of some goods increased slightly while others declined or remained flat
constant
Item January’16 February’16 March’16 Feb-Mar % Change
Rice (50kg) N9,000 N13,500 N13,500 -
Milo Sardine (125g) N150 N140 N175 25%
Heinz Baked Beans
(200g)
N199 N210 N180 -18%
Samsung Galaxy A5
(A500)
N61,000 N86,000 N80,000 -7%
Samsung Galaxy A8
(A800)
N90,000 N127,000 N142,000 12%
Peak Milk (900g) N2,000 N2,140 N2,140 -
Carton of Indomie
(Small)
N1,300 N1,800 N1,800 -
Source: FDC Research
67. 67
Lagos Vacancy Factor Index
We are introducing the FDC/LagosVacancy Factor Index
It measures the vacancy levels in (Residential, Commercial & Office
accommodation) in the Ikoyi,VI & Lekki axis
High brow neighbourhood vacancy factor is a lagging economic
indicator
An increase happens after a change in the level of economic activity
For example, following an expansion, vacancy factor will decline
More tenants than properties available
68. 68
Lagos Vacancy Factor Index (LVFI) – Flat in March
Index flat in March‟16 relative to February‟16
Compared to base year of January 2015, it increased by 76.9%
Commercial VFI lower due to the small pool of alternatives available
in the short run
Month/year Residential Index Commercial Index
January 2015 100 100
February 2015 92.3 96
March 2015 96.2 91
January 2016 169.2 148
February 2016 176.9 148
March 2016 176.9 148
69. 69
Lagos Vacancy Factor Index (LVFI) – to increase in April
Factors influencing LVFI
Banning dollarization of rents
Reduction in the number of visiting expatriates & oil industry workers
Investor confidence sharply lower
Inflationary pressures & disposable income erosion
Higher interest rates making mortgages less attractive
70. 70
To Let/For Sale ratio
To let/for sale ratio in March was 2.3:1
Properties up for lease were 2.3 times more than properties that were
put for sale
Economic downturn not as severe as depicted
If so, more properties would be on sale
Economic downturn reducing cash flow
Hence, landlord‟s have decided to hedge this risk by letting properties
and spreading rents over a longer time span
71. 71
Outlook
LVFI to increase pending a shift in Nigeria‟s economic cycle
Pace of increase in residential index to remain above
commercial
To let/ for sale ratio expected to increase as macroeconomic
headwinds shrink cash flow
However, budget approval expected to have a positive impact on
LVFI in Q2‟16
74. 74
Global Aviation
Global industry passenger load factor increased to 80.8% in
January 2016
Industry loads are elevated while breakeven loads have declined
This combination has supported the strong financial results of
airlines in 2015
Average global fares in US$ terms fell 12% in 2015
75. 75
Global Aviation
Strong appreciation of the US dollar
There has been downward trend in exchange rate adjusted fares
Recessions in Brazil & Russia caused declines in air travel demand
Naira weakness threatens aviation in Nigeria
Load factors in March through April were anaemic
76. 76
Global Aviation
Easter spike but long term averages sharply lower
Airlines suffering from remittance backlog and possible devaluation
jitters
Average load factors by cabin
Class Ave. Load Factors
First 30%
Club 45%
Premium Economy 60%
Economy 40%
77. 77
Global Aviation
Most carriers have increased their published fares
Many have restrictions on non-gateway destinations
(Heathrow, JFK, Frankfurt, etc)
Some airlines are taking advantage of the situation
Keeping fares flat and offering promos
e.g. Emirates,Turkish, United & Kenya Airways
Passengers are spending an average of 23 hours from Lagos to the
US
78. 78
Published fares are reflecting the forex backlog
British Airways Virgin Atlantic
First Class N2,668,686.00 ----
Business Class N1,946,916.00 N1,718,436.00
Premium Class N939,756.00 N903,006.00
Economy Class N834,976.00 N801,796.00
LOS – LON – LOS
British Airways Virgin Atlantic
First Class N3,061,350.00 ----
Business Class N2,065,320.00 N2,091,990.00
Premium Class N1,170,720.00 N1,194,240.00
Economy Class N989,490.00 N949,590.00
LOS – LON – NYC – LON - LOS
79. 79
Aviation
Emirates have increased the London-Dubai frequency to 10 daily
Putting B/A under pressure
The backlog of airline remittances are at staggering levels
CBN is claiming that airlines are receiving significant levels of
forex
81. 81
Equity Markets – Tepid investor sentiment
The equity market has been mostly negative in 2016
Scott-free index year to date return is now -17.17%
The Scott-free Blue chip 30 index returned -1.89%
Blue Chip Index in USD terms returned -1.87% and in euros -
6.46%
82. 82
Asset Mix – Investor’s sentiment moves in this direction
Asset Classes 15-Dec 16-Mar
N'bn % N'bn %
Equity 500.34 9.46% 449.08 8.15%
Money Market 586.75 11.09% 607.08 11.02%
FGN Bonds 3,009.19 56.88% 3,407.67 61.86%
Treasury bills 822.28 15.54% 611.05 11.09%
Mutual funds 28.69 0.54% 32.60 0.59%
State bonds 172.01 3.25% 169.85 3.08%
Supra-National Bonds 1.30 0.02% 1.31 0.02%
CORPORATE BONDS 125.40 2.37% 139.08 2.52%
Real estate 23.81 0.45% 24.30 0.44%
Cash & Others 20.61 0.39% 66.65 0.00%
TOTAL 5,290.38 5,508.67
Allocation to equities declined from 9.46% in December 2015 to
8.15% in March 2016
Due to the general decline in equities prices for the period
83. 83
State bond allocation declined to 3.08% in March from 3.25% in
December 2015
Due to possible state governments default
Preference for FGN Bonds and Treasury Bills
A marked pickup in average yields in 91-dayT-bill, NIBOR and 10-yr
FGN bond respectively
Q4‟15: 5.3%, 1.7% and 12.2%
Q1‟16: 5.9%, 7.27% and 12.35%
Analysis of Asset Mix
84. 84
Corporate earnings dictated equity market
returns during the month
NSEASI extends rally by 2.99% from February‟s
gain of 2.74%
BringingYTD return of the index to (11.65%)
Market capitalization increased by 2.99% to
N8.7trn
The average daily volume of trade
increased by 31.57% to N791.89mn
Average market PE ratio increased to 8.26x
from 7.75x
NSEASI March 2016 - Extends Gains
90,000,000
1,140,000,000
2,190,000,000
3,240,000,000
4,290,000,000
5,340,000,000
6,390,000,000
7,440,000,000
24,000.00
24,500.00
25,000.00
25,500.00
26,000.00
26,500.00
NSE ASI March 2016
Daily Volume Traded
85. 85
ScottFree Index
Total market capitalization for the SFNG Total Share Index increased
by 3.04% to N8.66trn
SFNG Total Share Index (representing 99.5% of the Nigerian equity market)
Free-float market capitalization for the index decreased by 0.53%
from N2.98trn (Feb) to N2.96trn (Mar)
86. 86
ScottFree Index
8 companies in the SFNG Total Share Index paid dividends in March
compared to the one paid in February
Dividend yield for the index increasing from 3.63% in February to 4.13% in March
Negative returns over the month of March
Exception to Mid Cap 40 Index returning 0.95%
87. 87
ScottFree Index
BC30 index lost 1.68% in March
30 day volatility of 19.99%
Sharpe ratio of 0.91
1 year return of -32.94%
Trailing P/E 5.31
Market volatility, economic policy
direction and bank balance sheets
concerns have taken their toll on
businesses
ScottFree BC 30
88. Data released from NBS during the month points to increased
investor uncertainty
Unemployment Q3‟15: 9.9% vs Q4‟15: 10.4%
Weak growth and high inflation
CBN resumes tightening cycle, citing inflationary pressure
Markets were shocked
There was a kneejerk reaction following the CBN's announcement
1.09% loss was recorded in the trading day
Soft Patch Forcing a Policy Reversal88
89. 2015 full year earnings season commenced
Results were in-line with market expectation
Systematic Important Bank „SIBs‟ released encouraging results
Exception to FBNH and ETI who had earlier released profit warning
2015 Pre-Tax Profit down by 3.83% from N869.04bn, Earnings up
by 3.18% from N4.25trn
2015 Earnings89
90. 90
Global Market Review
Stock exchanges across the globe had a great
month with exception to GGSECI
MSCI Emerging market index & CASE 30 with the
highest return of 13.03% & 22.42% respectively
S&P 500 & FTSE 100 are rebounding back to
January‟s index of 2058.9 & 6242.32 respectively
Backdrop of supportive liquidity environment of
Fed and oil price recovery
YTD return of (0.041%) and (1.09%) respectively
2.99%
11.75%
1.13%
5.92%
13.03%
1.28%
6.60%
5.74%
-3.05%
3.10%
22.42%
-4% 0% 4% 8% 12%16%20%24%
NSE ASI
SHCOMP
MSCI Frontiers
MSCI Europe
MSCI Emerging Markets
FTSE 100
S&P 500
JALSH
GGSECI
KNSMIDX
CASE 30
Global Indices March 2016
91. 91
Sectoral Performance - March 2016
The NSE Industrial Index up by 5.63%
Led by gains of DANGCEM and CAP Plc 18.45 and 7.6%
respectively
Positive earnings result of DANGCEM
Year-to-date returns is in the negative territory of 9.49%
The NSE banking index declined by 6.28%
In spite of positive gross earnings of 10.89% and PBT of
6.63% respectively
Earning results of Diamond Bank, ETI, FBNH, Unity Bank and
Stanbic IBTC are yet to be released
Concerns still boarder around bank’s asset quality and
macroeconomic conditions
2.99%
0.97%
0.12%
-6.28%
-8.15%
1.90%
5.63%
-9% -5% -1% 3% 7%
NSEASI
NSE 30
Insurance
Banking
Oil & Gas
Consumer Goods
Industrial Goods
Sectoral Performance
92. Banking Sector Earnings - FY’15
Tier 1 banks remain resilient in spite of macroeconomic headwinds
Extraordinary items pushed up earnings
Impairments are also up
Average gross earning up by 17.64% from N1.38trn
Average PBT growth was 29.59% from N332.29bn
UBA and Access Bank were outliers with PBT growth of 21.8% and
87.99% respectively
92
93. Banking Sector Earnings - FY’15
Banks like UBA and GTBank benefitted from Pan-African strategy
Rising loan loss provision is worrisome
2015: N55.42bn vs 2014: N42.38bn
93
94. Banks
24.26% of total banking assets
Risk weighted assets of N2.63trn
23.12% of total banking deposits
Sound risk management with NPL of
2.2%
Efficiency ratio of 54.63%
Well capitalized with CAR of 21%
ROE of 18.42%
Dividend yield -14.12%
Strong and profitable retail banking
segment
15.29% of total banking assets
Risk assets of N1.83trn
14.79% of total banking deposits
Sound risk management with NPL of
3.21%
Efficiency ratio of 42.01%
Well capitalized with CAR of 17.96%
ROE of 25.76%
Dividend yield – 10.64%
ZENITH GTBank
94
96. Cement - Stark Contrasting Results
Revenue growth due to Africa expansion
Pan-African expansion of 47.8MT pa still on
track
Revenue up 25.56% to N491.73bn
Market share of 63%
Gross Margins declined from 63.4% in 2014 to
58.96% in 2015
Pioneer tax ups PAT by 13.68% to N181bn
Operating profit of N207.82bn
42.3% of sales
PE ratio of 15.77x
DividendYield – 4.68%
FY2016Target Price of N160
Revenue up by 2.46% to N267.23
Group consolidation costs pare profits
PBT down 27.46% to N29.27bn
Gross Margins at 30.8%
Operating profit of N45.5bn
17.06% of sales
Forward integration strategy and reduction
in expensive fuel dependency to translate
to improve margins
PE ratio of 7.64x
DividendYield – 3.92%
FY2015Target Price of N92
DANGCEM Lafarge Holicum Africa
96
97. FMCG - Same Sector Different Outcome
Revenue up by 6.22% to N59.2bn
Cost of sale ratio marginally
increased to 64.45% in 2015 as against
63.8%
Finance cost rose by 65.99% to
N3.17bn
ROA declined from 5.27% to 2.37%
in 2015
Revenue edged up by 6% to
N151.27bn
Cost of sale ratio marginally
decreased to 55.48% from 57.3%
Finance cost down 8.24%to N4.86bn
ROA declined slightly from 20.96%
to 19.9%
Unilever Nestle
97
98. 98
Outlook - Stay diversified and focus on the long-term
Notwithstanding the 2016 budget passage, near-term headwinds to
persist as imbalances (unrealistic key assumptions) likely to intensify
Currency misalignment remains a tail risk
Valuations are relatively cheap but weak growth and challenged
banking system continues to affect investors sentiment
Market sell off to begin after earnings‟ result announcement on lack
of other market catalyst
Tightening financial conditions and lower oil prices to weigh on the
markets
101. 101
Political Risks – Economic backlash intensifies
The Federal Government is suffering from an economic backlash
Poor economic performance is eating into the favorability ratings
of the Buhari administration
Inflation up, unemployment high and growth down
The public is silently groaning and kicking
102. 102
Political Risk – Tough Political Challenges
Misery Index has increased in 4 consecutive quarters to 21.8%
The contentious re-run election in Rivers state was a proxy war
(APC vs the economy)
If the economy is not reinvigorated
Edo State and Ondo State may be difficult for the APC
103. 103
Political Risks – PDP is not credible
The PDP is in complete disarray and is uncompetitive
The real opposition will be within the APC
Buhari needs to fill board seats with APC members
The APC is split between the party machine and those in
government
i.e Politicians,Vs Technocrats plus Conservatives
104. 104
Its the Economy Stupid – Bill Clinton
Buhari runs the government but not the party or NASS
The administrative apparatus of the government is still under a
veiled PDP machine
Buhari needs to double down and focus on the economy
An economic re-orientation is now critical
105. 105
Political Risks
The SW wing of the APC is struggling to consolidate
The SE, mainly PDP, is hoping to back a splinter Northern
candidate in 2019
Will try to carry along the disgruntled South-South
And galvanize the economically marginalized
18% of GDP is wholesale and retail trade
These are exchange rate dependent and will vote in favor of
economic prosperity
106. 106
Political Risks
The message here is that Buhari must fix the economy urgently and
big time
The political sands are shifting
Analysts believe that Buhari will change economic direction in Q2
He will make major changes to the apparatus of government
And will lean more on professionals who can make things happen
108. 108
Outlook April/May
Buhari will go to China and get $3bn to $4bn of project-specific
funding commitments
Time between commitment and cash flow will be long
This will not alleviate the current forex shortages
Rationing of forex and abuse will become a source of political
backlash
The CBN will move from a rigid to a dual exchange rate policy
109. 109
Outlook April/May
Intensify exchange controls and increase transparency of the rationing
process
Thus reducing the current abuse
This will provide mild forex relief but not enough
The post-budget expenditure pressure on the reserves will force a
major rethink
The pre-conditions for external borrowing will be the game changer
110. 110
Outlook April/May
Headline inflation will breach 12% for the first time in 5 years
Fuel scarcity will continue into the 2nd half of April especially
outside Lagos and Abuja
Effective average price of petrol will be N120 per liter
Stock market to stay flat and dip approximately 2 – 3% in April
Foreign Portfolio investors will shun the Nigerian market
111. 111
Outlook April/May
Until a clear path to an exchange rate policy emerges
Interest rates will edge up as the level of T/Bills on issue increases
The Buhari team will align itself with the transition Committee report
The transition committee report have more solutions to the current
problem
No need to reinvent the wheel
They say it is better late than never