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LBS July 2016

The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. It notes that June saw signs of economic inflection in Nigeria, including the disappearance of fuel queues, a rise in the oil price, and monetary policy reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria. However, GDP growth is still estimated to be negative for the full year. The outlook is positive but painful as Nigeria stumbles into economic reforms, with the exchange rate expected to find a new equilibrium around N295-N310 per dollar. Winners in the stock market will be companies able to source raw materials internationally and leverage parent companies.

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Monthly Economic News and Views Presented by B.J. Rewane Financial Derivatives Company Limited Lagos Business School Executive Breakfast Meeting July 13, 2016 Nigeria Stumbles into Economic Reform
2 Nigeria Responds to Crisis  Market economy in sequence  Policy Reform: hard choices and change  The Outcome: difficult and uncertain  Outlook: positive but painful
3 Outline: Making Sense of the New Normal Highlights & Indicators LongWinding Path towards Reform Winners & Losers- Markets The Political Pushback Outlook for July
June Highlights
5 Finally A Month of Inflection  From month of woe to June of glow  In May, another lull in economic activities  Q2 GDP growth estimated to fall to -1.5%  Meaning that Nigeria is in Recession  IMF fears that 2016 will be a full year of negative growth  EIU revised full year GDP down to 0.4% from 2.1%  Fitch downgrades sovereign rating to B+
6 Finally A Month of Inflection  CBN published PMI shrank 8.5% from 45.8 to 41.9  Output, new orders, inventories & hiring all down sharply  Power supply from national grid down to 2,828MW  Average airline load factors declined for the 3rd consecutive month
7 Finally A Month of Inflection  Oil production crashed to 1.4mbpd from a high of 1.9mbpd  Mainly from the offshore and deepwater assets  From where the FGN earns more dollars  FAAC shared amongst states increased fractionally to N305bn  Mainly due to improved collection from FIRS  Average oil price in June was $49.99pb  41.8% above Q1 price of $35.21pb
8 Finally A Month of Inflection  Rig count in Nigeria down by 16.67% to 5  At the peak, Nigeria had 22 rigs  Headline inflation spikes to 16.5%  Highest level in 6 years  Nigeria now has the 8th highest inflation rate in SSA  6.6% above the 9% inflation ceiling of the CBN
9 Finally A Month of Inflection  Money supply now N20.72trn, annualized growth of 2.1%  Average opening position of banks up to N189.64bn  Average interbank interest rates surged to 75% p.a. before dropping to 4.5%  CBN introduced a new forex policy – managed floating rate  Sold $532m in the spot and $3.48bn in the forward market
10 Finally A Month of Inflection  CBN sacks board of Skye Bank on solvency concerns  Also showing zero tolerance for financial delinquency  Silverbird, R.T Briscoe, Jimoh Ibrahim and MRS petroleum on AMCON hit list  NNPC gets a new board at last  Governance structure could slow the dynamism of the sole administrator
Global & Regional Context
12 Global and Regional Context  U.S. economy grew at 1.1% in Q1’16  Slightly higher than 0.8%, the original estimate  Slowest pace in 12 months  Nearly all the 33 banks passed the Federal Reserve annual stress test  The U.S. subsidiaries of Deutsche Bank and Santander had their dividend and share buybacks plans rejected
13 Brexit – London is not the U.K.  The surprise outcome of the Brexit vote left global markets in turmoil  Wiping $3trn off global market valuations  British companies and investment trusts lost 14% in 3 days  Trading in Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland shares were suspended  The Bank of England promised to pump $350bn into the financial system
14  The market turbulence spread to Italy’s beleaguered banks  Bank of England relaxed capital requirements for banks  The next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting tomorrow would move to ease rates and increase QE  The Chancellor also plans to cut corporate income tax to below 15% Brexit – London is not the U.K.
15 Brexit - Implications  The Empire on which the Sun never sets – Christopher North 1829  The British Empire spanned the entire globe  The Empire is now where the sun hardly rises  Nigerian global diaspora remittances in 2014 approximately $22bn  Approx 33% from the U.K.  An 11% pound sterling fall equals $800m decline in remittances to Nigeria
16  A shrinking U.K. economy means possible lay-offs for Nigerian diaspora  British schools now cheaper for education  U.K. will become a more affordable destination for holidays, tourism & medical services  Nigerian/British trade N2.3trn in 2015 Brexit - Implications
17 The African Entrepreneur  SSA’s number of small businesses is only 25% of Asia’s, relative to its population –World Bank  Africa has produced just one of the world’s 169 “unicorns”: African Internet Group (AIG)  Label given to privately held tech start-ups with a valuation of more than $1 billion  AIG adapts foreign business models such as e- commerce and mobile cab-hailing to African circumstances
18 The African Entrepreneur  Crowding out effect of the government continues to limit Africa’s ability to produce profitable start-ups  Banks continue to channel savings to the government rather than entrepreneurs  Treasury bills offer juicy rate of interest  Government borrowing pushing interest rates up
19 SSA - Economic Review  The African Union has announced a proposal for a “single African Passport”  Proponents for this agenda argue that it would boost Africa’s regional integration  The single passport would promote free movement of labor, capital, goods and services  This proposal is set to materialize by 2018 to all AU citizens  Ghana has scrapped visa requirements for all African citizens
20 SSA - Economic Review  TheWorld Bank has revised their growth estimates for SSA in 2016 to 2.5% in 2016 from 2015’s 3.0%  The downward revision of South Africa is weighing on the region’s outlook  The economy contracted by 1.2% in Q1’16 from 0.6% in Q4’15
Nigeria Responds to Crisis and Stumbles into Reform
23 Act I Scene I - May 2016  Helpless Petroleum minister sees unending petrol queues  National security threatened by possible backlash and social chaos  Needs to act swiftly and wisely  Desperately meets with downstream players  Earlier attempts to get multinationals to fund local subsidiaries failed
24 Act I Scene I - May 2016  Ministers asks: what’s the Constraint????  Operators say: subsidy, delay and forex scarcity  Government offers: forex at N285/$ and PMS at N145  Bingo!!! queues disappear  Market in equilibrium  Operators dump import of diesel and kerosene  Price of diesel and kerosene up 100%  Free markets also create scarcity
25 Act I Scene 2 - May 2016  MPC meets against backdrop of NNPC determining a shadow exchange rate  Lame duck MPC with the dog wagging the tail  Announces new forex policy with no guidelines  Market relieved, anything is better than nothing  Guidelines expected at the appropriate time, meaning??  Dual exchange rate muted knock wood
26 Act 1 Scene 3 - June 15  CBN releases guidelines  Surprise! Surprise!! single exchange rate  Barriers to entry, only a select club of primary dealers  The lobbying begins against a possible cabal  The big boys lobby for barriers  CBN is between a rock and a hard place
27 Act 2 Scene 1- June 20  June 20- markets open  All authorised dealers are allowed as primary dealers  Another blow to the allocation cabal  Spot market on 2-way quote basis  Starts tentatively at N253/$  Average rate rises to N280/$
28 Act 3 Scene 1 – CBN Shocks the Market 11 am – June 20  CBN calls for bids for 90-day forward to be paid spot  Bids to be in 2 hours, objective is to clear forex backlog  Investors, banks, airlines, manufacturers scratching their heads  Use it or loose it, market in confusion  CBN sells $3.48bn to be delivered September 23
29 Act 3 Scene 2  Market in shock, N1.1trn sucked out of the system  Naira money market in turbulence, rates rise to 12% p.a.  Almost every bank goes to the CBN discount window  Market in shock for one week  Digests the spot plus forward and is gasping for more dollars
30 Act 3 Scene 3  CBN resorts to aggressive moral suasion  Compelling the banks to sell within an artificial band of N280/$ -N285/$  Spot market becomes totally illiquid Act 4 Scene 1  CBN abandons the rigid artificial band  Dealers allowed to trade naturally
31 Outlook for exchange rate  The naira is 6.51% overvalued, needs to depreciate to N300/$  Spot market is illiquid  Non-deliverable forwards of N292/$ is a joke  Moral suasion is a regulatory shake down  Fair value (sweet spot) is approximately N295-N310/$  Markets fear that Sept 23rd delivery of forwards may not happen
32 Policy Shift – Fiscal Policy  Increased capital spending in 2016 budget  Subsidy removal increases revenue to government by 21%  State bailouts now possibly over Impact:  Higher official price for PMS – N145/litre  National average price has declined from N163/litre to N150  No more queues  Partial deregulation first step to fully competitive market
33  Market settles at N295/$ spot  Sets the stage for a more realistic forward market  The parallel market is now trading at N365/$ - N375/$  Will appreciate towards 340 in August Policy Shift – Fiscal Policy
Leading, Coincidental & Lagging Indicators: The New Normal
35 Leading Indicators Indicator Direction Comment Oil price $47.81pb •Average for the year: $45pb •Possibly of a further decline subject to slowing Asian demand and supply glut Oil production 1.8mbpd •Recovery subject to further attacks •Passage PIB a possibility in H2’16 •MoU with China is a positive development Market Cap N9.9trn •Corporate earnings expected to flat line in H2’16 •Full recovery expected in 2017
36 Leading Indicators Indicator Direction Comment CBN PMI 41.8 •Recovery expected in Q3’16 •Driven by fiscal stimulus & forex accessibility FAAC N305.12bn •Naira depreciation implies more oil revenue in naira •Savings on subsidy frees up government funds
37 Coincidental Indicators Indicator Direction Comment Exchange Rate N282.12/$ •Sustainability of forward market dependent on spot market liquidity •Risk of policy reversal remote •Subject to further decline in oil price and production Treasury Bills 9.99% •Government spending to dampen rates MPR 12% •Monetary policy to skew towards growth enhancement and currency stability
38 Lagging Indicators Indicator Direction Comment GDP (-0.36)% •To bottom out in Q3, gradual recovery expected from Q4 •Not enough to negate contraction in H1 •Year-end growth projected to be negative External Reserves $26.4bn •Forward transaction of $3.4bn yet to be deducted •Reserve accretion subject to new dollar inflows Vacancy Factor Commercial : 34% Residential : 49% •Lower disposable income and high rates to shrink demand •Government activity to increase supply in the market
Stock Market Irrational Exuberance vs False Expectations
41 Stock Market – Highlights  Global market shaken by the Brexit surprise  Wiping out over 1.28% of market capitalization in the month of June  The Nigerian market had its own problems  Initial reaction to forex policy was a rally (dead cat bounce)  International investors said not so fast  Market retreated into choppy waters Source: FDC Think Tank & NSE 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 NSEASI
42 How Corporates see the Policy Change  Forex market where the spot rate is closer to equilibrium  CBN more willing to fund market  CBN chooses growth ahead of inflation  No need to increase interest rates if forex rate does the mopping up  Disposable income temporary  Shift in income to government as subsidies reduce  Removal of subsidy means availability of fuel and less time on queues  Effective lower price of petrol
43 Implication on Corporates Earnings  Short-run higher costs  Lower margins and profitability  Most sectors to consolidate after a shake out Critical success factors  Level of import content  Currency strength of exporting countries  Price elasticity of demand of the products manufactured  Ability of companies to extract cost efficiencies  Capacity to switch to local substitute  While keeping the average cost curve unchanged
44 Winners are Companies that have:  Tenacity to source raw materials from countries with weak currencies  Argentina,South Africa, Brazil, U.K and China  Leverage on multinational parent to lock down volatile raw materials in the futures market  Financial clout to pay lower finance costs
45 MTN Listing an Hail Mary Pass  The listing of MTN in 2017 could increase market capitalization by 50%  Bringing about sector diversity in the exchange  Force Etisalat,Airtel and Glo to follow suit  This is the tonic the Exchange has been waiting for
46 NSE-ASI July 2016 – Irrational Exuberance vs False Expectation  Stocks rebounded after a low of 22,456.32 points in January  Low oil prices, soft economic data, currency conundrum had a significant negative effect  Monetary policy action took center stage in May/June thus bolstered investors sentiment Source: FDC Think Tank & NSE 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 NSEASI Performance YTD Jan -16.5% Mar 2.99% May 10.38% Apr -0.96% Jun 6.99% Feb 2.74% Q1: -11.65% Q2: +16.96%
47 NSE-ASI July 2016 – Dead Cat Bounce  Stock advanced on the month of June by 6.99%  Pulling returns to positive territory of 3.34% (YTD)  Market upheaval over Brexit but was short-lived  Average turnover declined by 44.7% to N2.5bn from prior period  Market capitalization increased by 3.2% to N10.16trn from N9.85trn for half-year  The average daily volume of trade increased by 20.33% to N496.2mn from N412.3mn prior period  Average market PE ratio currently at 9.1x
48 Scott-Free Index  BC30 index gained 5.93% in June  The SFNG Blue-Chip 30 Index (USD) was down 25.30% while the SFNG Blue-Chip Index (EUR) was down 25.19% for the month of June  Adoption of a floating exchange rate attributable factor  30 day volatility of 40.61%  Sharpe ratio of 0.13x  1 year return of -17.54%  Trailing P/E 6.77x Scott-Free BC 30
Sectors to Watch FMCG
50 Sectors to Watch – FMCGs  Will consolidate into fewer players  Flour millers that can source raw materials globally  Reduce shipping costs by large volumes and presence across ECOWAS  Switch packaging materials and miniaturise to gain share  Staying power to fight price wars  Companies to watch include Nestle, NB, Guinness, 7up
51 FMCGs  Companies will reduce logistics & distribution costs  Taking advantage of the General Electric (G.E.) railway concession: Lagos to Kano  Sector average price earning ratio (P/E) now 9.1x  Sector profit margins still have room to withstand shocks  Will recover rapidly as stimulus package becomes impactful
Downstream Petroleum
53 Downstream Petroleum  Sector consolidating more rapidly than any other  Total subsidiary in Nigeria will leverage on the resources of a solid parent into the market  Mobil will do same drawing on the clout of the FairfaxVirginia headoffice  Oando, now acquired byVitol and Helios, will be the most lethal competitor  After it sorts out its liquidity concerns
54 Downstream Petroleum  The former subsidy kings and overnight sensations of 2013/14 are now dead on arrival  AMCON is in no mood to piggy back anybody or tolerate free loaders  FGN may privatise downstream infrastructure  Pipelines, depots and lubricant plants  The downstream giants will gobble limping competitors  Industry will be dominated by a maximum of 4 players in 2017
Banking
56 Banking – Further Consolidation  Soundness of the financial system called into question by recent developments  Historically, banking system weaknesses follows 12-24 months after every currency adjustment  Gross border risk crystallising into domestic systemic crisis  1996 NERFUND crisis and the failed Bank decree  After exchange rate declined from N22 to N88/$
57 Banking – Further Consolidation  Killing approx 20% of all banks  The 2008 devaluation from N118- N160  Led to banking sector distress  Compounded by margin loans  8 out of 21 banks kicked the bucket  CBN AMCON to the rescue  N620bn of tax payers money used for a bail out of the system
58  No depositor lost any money  Shareholders lost their shirts  Industry now set for more consolidation  Asset quality will deteriorate further  4% of NPLs are in power, 7% in public sector & 26% oil and gas  45% of loans are dollar denominated Banking – Further Consolidation
59  Capital is in naira: huge potential translation losses  Will erode shareholders’ value  Banking sector earnings will decline in 2016/17 by no less than 30- 40%  Sector will still be profitable, will recover in 2017/18 period Banking – Further Consolidation
Nigerian Banking Sector  NPLs expected to rise to 6% in 2016 from 5.5% in 2015 above the prudential CBN ceiling of 5% (BofAML)  Data from Q1’16 results of the largest banks shows average NPLs of 7%  Recovery in oil prices will to some extent be offset by lower oil production  Regulatory authority remains unflinched about the sector 60
Nigerian Banking Sector  Delayed July 1 date for compliance with the new minimum capital adequacy ratio of 16% from 15% this year (plus a 1% capital surcharge for systemically important banks)  CBN’s power sector intervention fund  N620 billion sector bailout in August 2009 61
Real Estate Lagos Vacancy Up Again
64 VFIX up to 172 in June 2016  The LVFIX increased marginally from 171 to 172 in May 2016  Reflects a slowed but continued deterioration in the real estate market  Due to the lagging effect of the indicator  The number of vacant properties increased by 72% in 18 months  Base month is January 2015  Vacant properties higher in Lekki andVictoria Island
65 VFIX up to 172 in June 2016 – Slowed growth 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Vacancy factor index (VFI) Source: FDC Think Tank
66 VFIX Outlook  Housing market hit by economic realities  Increased supply of residential properties  Continued retrenchment increasing delinquency  High-end tenants in the oil and gas industry suffer the most  Overvalued properties are dampening demand further  Dollar denominated rents are most affected negatively  As the new forex market settles, housing demand will increase  Vacancy factor will decline in Q1 2017
67 VFIX up to 172 in June 2016 Month/Year VFIX Residential Index Commercial Index January 2015 100 100 100 January 2016 160.2 169.2 148 March 2016 165.3 176.9 148 April 2016 165.9 180.8 143 May 2016 170.5 188.5 143 June 2016 172.2 188.5 148 Source: FDC Research
68 Outlook  No quick recovery  Effect of new policies will take some time before manifesting in the industry  We expect market forces to shift rental prices downwards  As current rates are unsustainable in the long run
Airlines Hit By Forex Rates
70 The Aviation Problem  $700 million blocked funds  Only dollar tickets sold  Industry consolidation taking place  New normal: flexible exchange rate  Massive transaction losses  40% haircut equivalent to $280million
71 Aviation Update  International carriers had borne the brunt of the Nigerian forex issue  Discontinued cheap fares and cut capacity  7% pulled out of the market  But it is not yet time for eureka
72 In the Global markets  Global airline share prices dropped by 11.6% in June  Year-to-date decline of over 21%  Affected by Brexit and ISIS  Oil price rebound eating into margins  Exchange rate adjustments not affecting demand  Fares are US dollar denominated  Share price of European stocks hit by downgrades to U.K. and EU economies
73 Global Aviation  Traffic into the U.K. to increase  GBP at 35-year low  After terrorism, bankruptcies and consolidation  U.S. airlines face increasing demand  Now facing shortage of pilots  Airbus A380 faces an uncertain future  No US carrier has bought the aircraft  Airlines are shifting away from “superjumbos”
74 Who’s Buying the Biggest Planes?
75 Global Aviation  Global average yield has fallen by about 9% y-o-y  Due to current economic realities  Annual global traffic growth remained unchanged at 4.6%  Partly due to disruptions like the Brussels terrorist attack  Available seat kilometers grew by 5.5%  Annual growth of passenger capacity exceeded passenger traffic  Africa constitutes 2.2% of global aviation market  Up from 1.8% in 2014
76 Airlines Exit Nigeria Sky team Star alliance One World Others Existing Delta Airlines Alitalia KLM Air France Kenya Airways China Southern Airlines Virgin Atlantic Airways Lufthansa Ethiopian Airlines Egypt Air Turkish Airlines South African British Airways US Airways Qatar Emirates Exit Total available seat kilometers lost- 8958 United Airlines- 787-8 Flights per week- 7 No of seats per flight- 219 Seats per week -3066 Iberia-A319 Flights per week- 3 No of seats per flight- 156 Seats per week- 936 Emirates-Airbus 777-ER Flights per week-7 No of seats per flight- 352 Seats per week- 4956
77 Nigerian Aviation - Regional and West Africa  Medview and Arik playing the price game  Quality not important  “Take your sleeping pills” before boarding  Risk of return flight cancellations  Kenya Airways expected to receive payment of outstanding fares from Nigerian government within a month
78 Nigerian Aviation - After Forex Adjustment, What Next?  Medical tourism down by 40%  Shift from India to Israel and now U.K.  In search of quality and weak currencies  Education- UK vs. US vs. Canada and others
79 After Forex Adjustment What Next?  Trading will be directed towards regions with cheaper air fares  Professionals will most likely change routes and flights  Airlines that benefit from FOREX adjustment include Emirates, Kenya Airways, and Qatar
80 Qatar Airways Group - Profits up in 2016  Qatar Airways group reported a net profit of $439m  Operating profits increased 172% in 2016 to $824m  Increased traffic following currency adjustment  The airline plans to launch 17 new destinations in 2016/2017 fiscal year
81 Nigerian Aviation-International Network  Lagos airport receives newest aircraft in the world  Ethiopian airlines Airbus A-350  Due to its strategic position in Africa  NCAA deregulates airline tariffs  Urges domestic airlines to increase fares  Tariff composition will be appropriately filed with the authority  Foreign airlines still selling dollar tickets  Despite warnings from the NCAA
82 Outlook  Nigerian aviation will consolidate  Airports concessioning  Fares this summer will drop due to competition  Positive effects from new forex policy will take time to manifest
The Political Fallout
85 Political Push Back  The Nigerian political class is under pressure  Fallout from the anti-corruption war  And the demolition of the rent seeking structure  Party members are becoming impatient in waiting for handouts  The APC is under fire for waging a one-sided war against corruption  The war is only at federal government level a PDP government  Naturally only the PDP is affected
86 Political Push Back  No state government has been investigated  Nepotism and key appointments are raising eyebrows  Just like Jonathan favored South East and South South  No justification for lopsided appointments  The APC needs to address nationwide representation both in numbers and effective control  To reduce concentration and dictatorial tendencies
87 Political Push Back  Niger Delta Avengers avenging nothing  The militancy has become a proxy war for the anti-corruption drive  The militants are likely to splinter as the pressure increases  The solution is better intelligence and constructive engagement  Buhari will need to fight past and present corruption
88 Political Push Back  The country will be looking out to see how many people have been fired and prosecuted for new corruption  The level of impunity is sharply lower than in the past  Edo State and Ondo State elections a litmus test for INEC  PDP squabbles undermining opposition capacity to fight
Outlook For July
91 Outlook for July  Inflation in July will increase marginally to 16.8%  Rate of change of inflation will slow to 0.3%  Stock market to remain choppy on poor corporate earnings  Naira will slip towards N310/$ in the interbank market  The parallel market will appreciate towards to N340/$  Airline load factors will increase in August, mainly in economy class
92 Outlook for July  MPC meeting will not change stance, monetary policy status quo  Waiting for a more sustainable inflation trend and forex market stability  Banking sector systemic risks will dominate investor concerns  More appointments to Boards and agencies by Buhari  Investors will remain cautiously optimistic
93  Nigeria will start the international debt raising process  90-180days rates will spike closer to 14%  Housing vacancy factor to decline after forex market settles  The military will step up attacks on militants  Oil production will remain flat at 1.7mbpd Outlook for July
94 Corporate Humour The trouble with life in the fast lane is that you get to the other end in awful hurry – John Jensen If you can see the light at the end of the tunnel, you are looking the wrong way – Barry Commoner
95 Corporate Humour The entire economy of the Western World is built on things that cause cancer – The Movie Bliss 1985 Muscles come and go but flab stays
96 Corporate Humour The lovely thing about being forty is that you appreciate twenty five year old men more – Colleen Mccullough Hard work never killed anybody who supervised it – Harry Bomer
97 Corporate Humour My problem is reconciling my gross habits with my net income – Errol Flynn A lawyer with a brief case can steal more than a thousand men with guns – Mario Puzo
98 Corporate Humour Gambling is getting nothing for something – Wilson Mizner Riches don’t make a man richer, only busier – Conquest of Paradise
99 Corporate Humour On wall street enough is never enough – Alison Cowan There was a time when only a fool and his money were soon parted, but now it happens to everybody – Adlai Stevenson
100 Corporate Humour Economic forecasters exist to make astrologers look good – Robert Reich
Bismarck J. Rewane, MD/CEO Financial Derivatives Company Ltd. Lagos, Nigeria 01-7739889 © 2016. “This publication is for private circulation only. Any other use or publication without the prior express consent of Financial Derivatives Company Limited is prohibited.”

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LBS July 2016

  • 1.
    Monthly Economic Newsand Views Presented by B.J. Rewane Financial Derivatives Company Limited Lagos Business School Executive Breakfast Meeting July 13, 2016 Nigeria Stumbles into Economic Reform
  • 2.
    2 Nigeria Responds toCrisis  Market economy in sequence  Policy Reform: hard choices and change  The Outcome: difficult and uncertain  Outlook: positive but painful
  • 3.
    3 Outline: Making Senseof the New Normal Highlights & Indicators LongWinding Path towards Reform Winners & Losers- Markets The Political Pushback Outlook for July
  • 4.
  • 5.
    5 Finally A Monthof Inflection  From month of woe to June of glow  In May, another lull in economic activities  Q2 GDP growth estimated to fall to -1.5%  Meaning that Nigeria is in Recession  IMF fears that 2016 will be a full year of negative growth  EIU revised full year GDP down to 0.4% from 2.1%  Fitch downgrades sovereign rating to B+
  • 6.
    6 Finally A Monthof Inflection  CBN published PMI shrank 8.5% from 45.8 to 41.9  Output, new orders, inventories & hiring all down sharply  Power supply from national grid down to 2,828MW  Average airline load factors declined for the 3rd consecutive month
  • 7.
    7 Finally A Monthof Inflection  Oil production crashed to 1.4mbpd from a high of 1.9mbpd  Mainly from the offshore and deepwater assets  From where the FGN earns more dollars  FAAC shared amongst states increased fractionally to N305bn  Mainly due to improved collection from FIRS  Average oil price in June was $49.99pb  41.8% above Q1 price of $35.21pb
  • 8.
    8 Finally A Monthof Inflection  Rig count in Nigeria down by 16.67% to 5  At the peak, Nigeria had 22 rigs  Headline inflation spikes to 16.5%  Highest level in 6 years  Nigeria now has the 8th highest inflation rate in SSA  6.6% above the 9% inflation ceiling of the CBN
  • 9.
    9 Finally A Monthof Inflection  Money supply now N20.72trn, annualized growth of 2.1%  Average opening position of banks up to N189.64bn  Average interbank interest rates surged to 75% p.a. before dropping to 4.5%  CBN introduced a new forex policy – managed floating rate  Sold $532m in the spot and $3.48bn in the forward market
  • 10.
    10 Finally A Monthof Inflection  CBN sacks board of Skye Bank on solvency concerns  Also showing zero tolerance for financial delinquency  Silverbird, R.T Briscoe, Jimoh Ibrahim and MRS petroleum on AMCON hit list  NNPC gets a new board at last  Governance structure could slow the dynamism of the sole administrator
  • 11.
  • 12.
    12 Global and RegionalContext  U.S. economy grew at 1.1% in Q1’16  Slightly higher than 0.8%, the original estimate  Slowest pace in 12 months  Nearly all the 33 banks passed the Federal Reserve annual stress test  The U.S. subsidiaries of Deutsche Bank and Santander had their dividend and share buybacks plans rejected
  • 13.
    13 Brexit – Londonis not the U.K.  The surprise outcome of the Brexit vote left global markets in turmoil  Wiping $3trn off global market valuations  British companies and investment trusts lost 14% in 3 days  Trading in Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland shares were suspended  The Bank of England promised to pump $350bn into the financial system
  • 14.
    14  The marketturbulence spread to Italy’s beleaguered banks  Bank of England relaxed capital requirements for banks  The next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting tomorrow would move to ease rates and increase QE  The Chancellor also plans to cut corporate income tax to below 15% Brexit – London is not the U.K.
  • 15.
    15 Brexit - Implications The Empire on which the Sun never sets – Christopher North 1829  The British Empire spanned the entire globe  The Empire is now where the sun hardly rises  Nigerian global diaspora remittances in 2014 approximately $22bn  Approx 33% from the U.K.  An 11% pound sterling fall equals $800m decline in remittances to Nigeria
  • 16.
    16  A shrinkingU.K. economy means possible lay-offs for Nigerian diaspora  British schools now cheaper for education  U.K. will become a more affordable destination for holidays, tourism & medical services  Nigerian/British trade N2.3trn in 2015 Brexit - Implications
  • 17.
    17 The African Entrepreneur SSA’s number of small businesses is only 25% of Asia’s, relative to its population –World Bank  Africa has produced just one of the world’s 169 “unicorns”: African Internet Group (AIG)  Label given to privately held tech start-ups with a valuation of more than $1 billion  AIG adapts foreign business models such as e- commerce and mobile cab-hailing to African circumstances
  • 18.
    18 The African Entrepreneur Crowding out effect of the government continues to limit Africa’s ability to produce profitable start-ups  Banks continue to channel savings to the government rather than entrepreneurs  Treasury bills offer juicy rate of interest  Government borrowing pushing interest rates up
  • 19.
    19 SSA - EconomicReview  The African Union has announced a proposal for a “single African Passport”  Proponents for this agenda argue that it would boost Africa’s regional integration  The single passport would promote free movement of labor, capital, goods and services  This proposal is set to materialize by 2018 to all AU citizens  Ghana has scrapped visa requirements for all African citizens
  • 20.
    20 SSA - EconomicReview  TheWorld Bank has revised their growth estimates for SSA in 2016 to 2.5% in 2016 from 2015’s 3.0%  The downward revision of South Africa is weighing on the region’s outlook  The economy contracted by 1.2% in Q1’16 from 0.6% in Q4’15
  • 22.
    Nigeria Responds toCrisis and Stumbles into Reform
  • 23.
    23 Act I SceneI - May 2016  Helpless Petroleum minister sees unending petrol queues  National security threatened by possible backlash and social chaos  Needs to act swiftly and wisely  Desperately meets with downstream players  Earlier attempts to get multinationals to fund local subsidiaries failed
  • 24.
    24 Act I SceneI - May 2016  Ministers asks: what’s the Constraint????  Operators say: subsidy, delay and forex scarcity  Government offers: forex at N285/$ and PMS at N145  Bingo!!! queues disappear  Market in equilibrium  Operators dump import of diesel and kerosene  Price of diesel and kerosene up 100%  Free markets also create scarcity
  • 25.
    25 Act I Scene2 - May 2016  MPC meets against backdrop of NNPC determining a shadow exchange rate  Lame duck MPC with the dog wagging the tail  Announces new forex policy with no guidelines  Market relieved, anything is better than nothing  Guidelines expected at the appropriate time, meaning??  Dual exchange rate muted knock wood
  • 26.
    26 Act 1 Scene3 - June 15  CBN releases guidelines  Surprise! Surprise!! single exchange rate  Barriers to entry, only a select club of primary dealers  The lobbying begins against a possible cabal  The big boys lobby for barriers  CBN is between a rock and a hard place
  • 27.
    27 Act 2 Scene1- June 20  June 20- markets open  All authorised dealers are allowed as primary dealers  Another blow to the allocation cabal  Spot market on 2-way quote basis  Starts tentatively at N253/$  Average rate rises to N280/$
  • 28.
    28 Act 3 Scene1 – CBN Shocks the Market 11 am – June 20  CBN calls for bids for 90-day forward to be paid spot  Bids to be in 2 hours, objective is to clear forex backlog  Investors, banks, airlines, manufacturers scratching their heads  Use it or loose it, market in confusion  CBN sells $3.48bn to be delivered September 23
  • 29.
    29 Act 3 Scene2  Market in shock, N1.1trn sucked out of the system  Naira money market in turbulence, rates rise to 12% p.a.  Almost every bank goes to the CBN discount window  Market in shock for one week  Digests the spot plus forward and is gasping for more dollars
  • 30.
    30 Act 3 Scene3  CBN resorts to aggressive moral suasion  Compelling the banks to sell within an artificial band of N280/$ -N285/$  Spot market becomes totally illiquid Act 4 Scene 1  CBN abandons the rigid artificial band  Dealers allowed to trade naturally
  • 31.
    31 Outlook for exchangerate  The naira is 6.51% overvalued, needs to depreciate to N300/$  Spot market is illiquid  Non-deliverable forwards of N292/$ is a joke  Moral suasion is a regulatory shake down  Fair value (sweet spot) is approximately N295-N310/$  Markets fear that Sept 23rd delivery of forwards may not happen
  • 32.
    32 Policy Shift –Fiscal Policy  Increased capital spending in 2016 budget  Subsidy removal increases revenue to government by 21%  State bailouts now possibly over Impact:  Higher official price for PMS – N145/litre  National average price has declined from N163/litre to N150  No more queues  Partial deregulation first step to fully competitive market
  • 33.
    33  Market settlesat N295/$ spot  Sets the stage for a more realistic forward market  The parallel market is now trading at N365/$ - N375/$  Will appreciate towards 340 in August Policy Shift – Fiscal Policy
  • 34.
    Leading, Coincidental &Lagging Indicators: The New Normal
  • 35.
    35 Leading Indicators Indicator DirectionComment Oil price $47.81pb •Average for the year: $45pb •Possibly of a further decline subject to slowing Asian demand and supply glut Oil production 1.8mbpd •Recovery subject to further attacks •Passage PIB a possibility in H2’16 •MoU with China is a positive development Market Cap N9.9trn •Corporate earnings expected to flat line in H2’16 •Full recovery expected in 2017
  • 36.
    36 Leading Indicators Indicator DirectionComment CBN PMI 41.8 •Recovery expected in Q3’16 •Driven by fiscal stimulus & forex accessibility FAAC N305.12bn •Naira depreciation implies more oil revenue in naira •Savings on subsidy frees up government funds
  • 37.
    37 Coincidental Indicators Indicator DirectionComment Exchange Rate N282.12/$ •Sustainability of forward market dependent on spot market liquidity •Risk of policy reversal remote •Subject to further decline in oil price and production Treasury Bills 9.99% •Government spending to dampen rates MPR 12% •Monetary policy to skew towards growth enhancement and currency stability
  • 38.
    38 Lagging Indicators Indicator DirectionComment GDP (-0.36)% •To bottom out in Q3, gradual recovery expected from Q4 •Not enough to negate contraction in H1 •Year-end growth projected to be negative External Reserves $26.4bn •Forward transaction of $3.4bn yet to be deducted •Reserve accretion subject to new dollar inflows Vacancy Factor Commercial : 34% Residential : 49% •Lower disposable income and high rates to shrink demand •Government activity to increase supply in the market
  • 39.
  • 41.
    41 Stock Market –Highlights  Global market shaken by the Brexit surprise  Wiping out over 1.28% of market capitalization in the month of June  The Nigerian market had its own problems  Initial reaction to forex policy was a rally (dead cat bounce)  International investors said not so fast  Market retreated into choppy waters Source: FDC Think Tank & NSE 26,000 28,000 30,000 32,000 NSEASI
  • 42.
    42 How Corporates seethe Policy Change  Forex market where the spot rate is closer to equilibrium  CBN more willing to fund market  CBN chooses growth ahead of inflation  No need to increase interest rates if forex rate does the mopping up  Disposable income temporary  Shift in income to government as subsidies reduce  Removal of subsidy means availability of fuel and less time on queues  Effective lower price of petrol
  • 43.
    43 Implication on CorporatesEarnings  Short-run higher costs  Lower margins and profitability  Most sectors to consolidate after a shake out Critical success factors  Level of import content  Currency strength of exporting countries  Price elasticity of demand of the products manufactured  Ability of companies to extract cost efficiencies  Capacity to switch to local substitute  While keeping the average cost curve unchanged
  • 44.
    44 Winners are Companiesthat have:  Tenacity to source raw materials from countries with weak currencies  Argentina,South Africa, Brazil, U.K and China  Leverage on multinational parent to lock down volatile raw materials in the futures market  Financial clout to pay lower finance costs
  • 45.
    45 MTN Listing anHail Mary Pass  The listing of MTN in 2017 could increase market capitalization by 50%  Bringing about sector diversity in the exchange  Force Etisalat,Airtel and Glo to follow suit  This is the tonic the Exchange has been waiting for
  • 46.
    46 NSE-ASI July 2016– Irrational Exuberance vs False Expectation  Stocks rebounded after a low of 22,456.32 points in January  Low oil prices, soft economic data, currency conundrum had a significant negative effect  Monetary policy action took center stage in May/June thus bolstered investors sentiment Source: FDC Think Tank & NSE 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 NSEASI Performance YTD Jan -16.5% Mar 2.99% May 10.38% Apr -0.96% Jun 6.99% Feb 2.74% Q1: -11.65% Q2: +16.96%
  • 47.
    47 NSE-ASI July 2016– Dead Cat Bounce  Stock advanced on the month of June by 6.99%  Pulling returns to positive territory of 3.34% (YTD)  Market upheaval over Brexit but was short-lived  Average turnover declined by 44.7% to N2.5bn from prior period  Market capitalization increased by 3.2% to N10.16trn from N9.85trn for half-year  The average daily volume of trade increased by 20.33% to N496.2mn from N412.3mn prior period  Average market PE ratio currently at 9.1x
  • 48.
    48 Scott-Free Index  BC30index gained 5.93% in June  The SFNG Blue-Chip 30 Index (USD) was down 25.30% while the SFNG Blue-Chip Index (EUR) was down 25.19% for the month of June  Adoption of a floating exchange rate attributable factor  30 day volatility of 40.61%  Sharpe ratio of 0.13x  1 year return of -17.54%  Trailing P/E 6.77x Scott-Free BC 30
  • 49.
  • 50.
    50 Sectors to Watch– FMCGs  Will consolidate into fewer players  Flour millers that can source raw materials globally  Reduce shipping costs by large volumes and presence across ECOWAS  Switch packaging materials and miniaturise to gain share  Staying power to fight price wars  Companies to watch include Nestle, NB, Guinness, 7up
  • 51.
    51 FMCGs  Companies willreduce logistics & distribution costs  Taking advantage of the General Electric (G.E.) railway concession: Lagos to Kano  Sector average price earning ratio (P/E) now 9.1x  Sector profit margins still have room to withstand shocks  Will recover rapidly as stimulus package becomes impactful
  • 52.
  • 53.
    53 Downstream Petroleum  Sectorconsolidating more rapidly than any other  Total subsidiary in Nigeria will leverage on the resources of a solid parent into the market  Mobil will do same drawing on the clout of the FairfaxVirginia headoffice  Oando, now acquired byVitol and Helios, will be the most lethal competitor  After it sorts out its liquidity concerns
  • 54.
    54 Downstream Petroleum  Theformer subsidy kings and overnight sensations of 2013/14 are now dead on arrival  AMCON is in no mood to piggy back anybody or tolerate free loaders  FGN may privatise downstream infrastructure  Pipelines, depots and lubricant plants  The downstream giants will gobble limping competitors  Industry will be dominated by a maximum of 4 players in 2017
  • 55.
  • 56.
    56 Banking – FurtherConsolidation  Soundness of the financial system called into question by recent developments  Historically, banking system weaknesses follows 12-24 months after every currency adjustment  Gross border risk crystallising into domestic systemic crisis  1996 NERFUND crisis and the failed Bank decree  After exchange rate declined from N22 to N88/$
  • 57.
    57 Banking – FurtherConsolidation  Killing approx 20% of all banks  The 2008 devaluation from N118- N160  Led to banking sector distress  Compounded by margin loans  8 out of 21 banks kicked the bucket  CBN AMCON to the rescue  N620bn of tax payers money used for a bail out of the system
  • 58.
    58  No depositorlost any money  Shareholders lost their shirts  Industry now set for more consolidation  Asset quality will deteriorate further  4% of NPLs are in power, 7% in public sector & 26% oil and gas  45% of loans are dollar denominated Banking – Further Consolidation
  • 59.
    59  Capital isin naira: huge potential translation losses  Will erode shareholders’ value  Banking sector earnings will decline in 2016/17 by no less than 30- 40%  Sector will still be profitable, will recover in 2017/18 period Banking – Further Consolidation
  • 60.
    Nigerian Banking Sector NPLs expected to rise to 6% in 2016 from 5.5% in 2015 above the prudential CBN ceiling of 5% (BofAML)  Data from Q1’16 results of the largest banks shows average NPLs of 7%  Recovery in oil prices will to some extent be offset by lower oil production  Regulatory authority remains unflinched about the sector 60
  • 61.
    Nigerian Banking Sector Delayed July 1 date for compliance with the new minimum capital adequacy ratio of 16% from 15% this year (plus a 1% capital surcharge for systemically important banks)  CBN’s power sector intervention fund  N620 billion sector bailout in August 2009 61
  • 63.
  • 64.
    64 VFIX up to172 in June 2016  The LVFIX increased marginally from 171 to 172 in May 2016  Reflects a slowed but continued deterioration in the real estate market  Due to the lagging effect of the indicator  The number of vacant properties increased by 72% in 18 months  Base month is January 2015  Vacant properties higher in Lekki andVictoria Island
  • 65.
    65 VFIX up to172 in June 2016 – Slowed growth 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Vacancy factor index (VFI) Source: FDC Think Tank
  • 66.
    66 VFIX Outlook  Housingmarket hit by economic realities  Increased supply of residential properties  Continued retrenchment increasing delinquency  High-end tenants in the oil and gas industry suffer the most  Overvalued properties are dampening demand further  Dollar denominated rents are most affected negatively  As the new forex market settles, housing demand will increase  Vacancy factor will decline in Q1 2017
  • 67.
    67 VFIX up to172 in June 2016 Month/Year VFIX Residential Index Commercial Index January 2015 100 100 100 January 2016 160.2 169.2 148 March 2016 165.3 176.9 148 April 2016 165.9 180.8 143 May 2016 170.5 188.5 143 June 2016 172.2 188.5 148 Source: FDC Research
  • 68.
    68 Outlook  No quickrecovery  Effect of new policies will take some time before manifesting in the industry  We expect market forces to shift rental prices downwards  As current rates are unsustainable in the long run
  • 69.
    Airlines Hit ByForex Rates
  • 70.
    70 The Aviation Problem $700 million blocked funds  Only dollar tickets sold  Industry consolidation taking place  New normal: flexible exchange rate  Massive transaction losses  40% haircut equivalent to $280million
  • 71.
    71 Aviation Update  Internationalcarriers had borne the brunt of the Nigerian forex issue  Discontinued cheap fares and cut capacity  7% pulled out of the market  But it is not yet time for eureka
  • 72.
    72 In the Globalmarkets  Global airline share prices dropped by 11.6% in June  Year-to-date decline of over 21%  Affected by Brexit and ISIS  Oil price rebound eating into margins  Exchange rate adjustments not affecting demand  Fares are US dollar denominated  Share price of European stocks hit by downgrades to U.K. and EU economies
  • 73.
    73 Global Aviation  Trafficinto the U.K. to increase  GBP at 35-year low  After terrorism, bankruptcies and consolidation  U.S. airlines face increasing demand  Now facing shortage of pilots  Airbus A380 faces an uncertain future  No US carrier has bought the aircraft  Airlines are shifting away from “superjumbos”
  • 74.
    74 Who’s Buying theBiggest Planes?
  • 75.
    75 Global Aviation  Globalaverage yield has fallen by about 9% y-o-y  Due to current economic realities  Annual global traffic growth remained unchanged at 4.6%  Partly due to disruptions like the Brussels terrorist attack  Available seat kilometers grew by 5.5%  Annual growth of passenger capacity exceeded passenger traffic  Africa constitutes 2.2% of global aviation market  Up from 1.8% in 2014
  • 76.
    76 Airlines Exit Nigeria Skyteam Star alliance One World Others Existing Delta Airlines Alitalia KLM Air France Kenya Airways China Southern Airlines Virgin Atlantic Airways Lufthansa Ethiopian Airlines Egypt Air Turkish Airlines South African British Airways US Airways Qatar Emirates Exit Total available seat kilometers lost- 8958 United Airlines- 787-8 Flights per week- 7 No of seats per flight- 219 Seats per week -3066 Iberia-A319 Flights per week- 3 No of seats per flight- 156 Seats per week- 936 Emirates-Airbus 777-ER Flights per week-7 No of seats per flight- 352 Seats per week- 4956
  • 77.
    77 Nigerian Aviation -Regional and West Africa  Medview and Arik playing the price game  Quality not important  “Take your sleeping pills” before boarding  Risk of return flight cancellations  Kenya Airways expected to receive payment of outstanding fares from Nigerian government within a month
  • 78.
    78 Nigerian Aviation -After Forex Adjustment, What Next?  Medical tourism down by 40%  Shift from India to Israel and now U.K.  In search of quality and weak currencies  Education- UK vs. US vs. Canada and others
  • 79.
    79 After Forex AdjustmentWhat Next?  Trading will be directed towards regions with cheaper air fares  Professionals will most likely change routes and flights  Airlines that benefit from FOREX adjustment include Emirates, Kenya Airways, and Qatar
  • 80.
    80 Qatar Airways Group- Profits up in 2016  Qatar Airways group reported a net profit of $439m  Operating profits increased 172% in 2016 to $824m  Increased traffic following currency adjustment  The airline plans to launch 17 new destinations in 2016/2017 fiscal year
  • 81.
    81 Nigerian Aviation-International Network Lagos airport receives newest aircraft in the world  Ethiopian airlines Airbus A-350  Due to its strategic position in Africa  NCAA deregulates airline tariffs  Urges domestic airlines to increase fares  Tariff composition will be appropriately filed with the authority  Foreign airlines still selling dollar tickets  Despite warnings from the NCAA
  • 82.
    82 Outlook  Nigerian aviationwill consolidate  Airports concessioning  Fares this summer will drop due to competition  Positive effects from new forex policy will take time to manifest
  • 84.
  • 85.
    85 Political Push Back The Nigerian political class is under pressure  Fallout from the anti-corruption war  And the demolition of the rent seeking structure  Party members are becoming impatient in waiting for handouts  The APC is under fire for waging a one-sided war against corruption  The war is only at federal government level a PDP government  Naturally only the PDP is affected
  • 86.
    86 Political Push Back No state government has been investigated  Nepotism and key appointments are raising eyebrows  Just like Jonathan favored South East and South South  No justification for lopsided appointments  The APC needs to address nationwide representation both in numbers and effective control  To reduce concentration and dictatorial tendencies
  • 87.
    87 Political Push Back Niger Delta Avengers avenging nothing  The militancy has become a proxy war for the anti-corruption drive  The militants are likely to splinter as the pressure increases  The solution is better intelligence and constructive engagement  Buhari will need to fight past and present corruption
  • 88.
    88 Political Push Back The country will be looking out to see how many people have been fired and prosecuted for new corruption  The level of impunity is sharply lower than in the past  Edo State and Ondo State elections a litmus test for INEC  PDP squabbles undermining opposition capacity to fight
  • 90.
  • 91.
    91 Outlook for July Inflation in July will increase marginally to 16.8%  Rate of change of inflation will slow to 0.3%  Stock market to remain choppy on poor corporate earnings  Naira will slip towards N310/$ in the interbank market  The parallel market will appreciate towards to N340/$  Airline load factors will increase in August, mainly in economy class
  • 92.
    92 Outlook for July MPC meeting will not change stance, monetary policy status quo  Waiting for a more sustainable inflation trend and forex market stability  Banking sector systemic risks will dominate investor concerns  More appointments to Boards and agencies by Buhari  Investors will remain cautiously optimistic
  • 93.
    93  Nigeria willstart the international debt raising process  90-180days rates will spike closer to 14%  Housing vacancy factor to decline after forex market settles  The military will step up attacks on militants  Oil production will remain flat at 1.7mbpd Outlook for July
  • 94.
    94 Corporate Humour The troublewith life in the fast lane is that you get to the other end in awful hurry – John Jensen If you can see the light at the end of the tunnel, you are looking the wrong way – Barry Commoner
  • 95.
    95 Corporate Humour The entireeconomy of the Western World is built on things that cause cancer – The Movie Bliss 1985 Muscles come and go but flab stays
  • 96.
    96 Corporate Humour The lovelything about being forty is that you appreciate twenty five year old men more – Colleen Mccullough Hard work never killed anybody who supervised it – Harry Bomer
  • 97.
    97 Corporate Humour My problemis reconciling my gross habits with my net income – Errol Flynn A lawyer with a brief case can steal more than a thousand men with guns – Mario Puzo
  • 98.
    98 Corporate Humour Gambling isgetting nothing for something – Wilson Mizner Riches don’t make a man richer, only busier – Conquest of Paradise
  • 99.
    99 Corporate Humour On wallstreet enough is never enough – Alison Cowan There was a time when only a fool and his money were soon parted, but now it happens to everybody – Adlai Stevenson
  • 100.
    100 Corporate Humour Economic forecastersexist to make astrologers look good – Robert Reich
  • 102.
    Bismarck J. Rewane,MD/CEO Financial Derivatives Company Ltd. Lagos, Nigeria 01-7739889 © 2016. “This publication is for private circulation only. Any other use or publication without the prior express consent of Financial Derivatives Company Limited is prohibited.”