This summary provides an overview of political risk ratings changes and trends discussed in the Q3 2016 political risk quarterly report from Aon. Four countries saw deteriorations in their overall risk ratings - Azerbaijan, Djibouti, Kuwait, and Zimbabwe. Only Madagascar improved, being upgraded to medium-high risk. Deteriorations were driven by factors like increased political violence, regional conflicts, weakened fiscal situations, and instability. Asia was noted as seeing modestly improving ratings, while challenges remain around infrastructure investment programs in countries like India, Indonesia, and the Philippines. Risks in Latin America are also trending positively overall despite issues in Venezuela. The Middle East and Africa continue facing pressure from low oil prices and conflicts.
This document summarizes changes in country risk ratings for several countries in the last quarter, as assessed by Aon's political risk team. Haiti, Ethiopia, Iran, and China saw improvements in their overall country risk ratings, driven by decreases in factors like political violence and supply chain disruption risk. Suriname saw its rating deteriorate due to increased supply chain risk. Several other countries experienced changes in individual risk factors that could signal future overall rating changes. The newsletter also provides regional overviews of political risk trends, highlighting issues in Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Complementing the annual Political Risk Map, Aon’s political risk newsletter is developed in partnership with Roubini Global Economics, an independent, global research firm founded in 2004 by renowned economist Nouriel Roubini. The newsletter is released on a quarterly basis and provides insight into levels and types of Political Risk in non-EU and -OECD countries.
Export - Political risk map newsletterDavid Wilson
Several countries saw improvements in their overall country risk ratings this quarter according to Aon's political risk newsletter, including Haiti, Ethiopia, Iran, and China. Only Suriname saw a deterioration in its rating. A number of anti-corruption campaigns in Asia were discussed as potentially improving political risk outlooks by reducing uncertainty. The newsletter provides regional overviews of political risks, noting both improvements and deteriorations across various countries and risks.
"Tunisia's debt ratio increased sharply to almost 70% of GDP at the end of 2017 and higher than anticipated spending pressures and a heavy public sector wage bill limit its budget flexibility"
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
Global growth was subdued at 2.1% in 2013 but is expected to improve to 3.0-3.3% in 2014-2015. Inflation remains low worldwide due to excess capacity and unemployment. Unemployment remains high, especially in Europe, with rates over 25% in Greece and Spain. International trade growth weakened to 2.3% in 2013 but is projected to rise to 4.6-5.1% in 2014-2015. Capital flows to emerging markets declined in 2013 and volatility increased due to tapering of US monetary stimulus. Risks to the outlook include a disorderly exit from quantitative easing and slowing growth in large emerging markets.
Our extensive coverage of the Americas this month
includes an update on the United States that will examine
whether the disappointing economic growth data for the
fourth quarter of 2015 is cause for deep concern, assess
the risk of further battling between President Barack
Obama and the opposition-controlled Congress that
could derail a weak but sustained recovery, and provide an
early assessment of how the November presidential and
congressional elections might turn out. PRS will also issue
an update on Guatemala, where a political crisis driven
by revelations of a massive network
Global economic outlook due to covid 19M S Siddiqui
Global coordination and cooperation-of the measures needed to slow the spread of the pandemic, and of the economic actions needed to alleviate the economic damage, including international support-provide the greatest chance of achieving public health goals and enabling a robust global recovery.
This document summarizes changes in country risk ratings for several countries in the last quarter, as assessed by Aon's political risk team. Haiti, Ethiopia, Iran, and China saw improvements in their overall country risk ratings, driven by decreases in factors like political violence and supply chain disruption risk. Suriname saw its rating deteriorate due to increased supply chain risk. Several other countries experienced changes in individual risk factors that could signal future overall rating changes. The newsletter also provides regional overviews of political risk trends, highlighting issues in Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Complementing the annual Political Risk Map, Aon’s political risk newsletter is developed in partnership with Roubini Global Economics, an independent, global research firm founded in 2004 by renowned economist Nouriel Roubini. The newsletter is released on a quarterly basis and provides insight into levels and types of Political Risk in non-EU and -OECD countries.
Export - Political risk map newsletterDavid Wilson
Several countries saw improvements in their overall country risk ratings this quarter according to Aon's political risk newsletter, including Haiti, Ethiopia, Iran, and China. Only Suriname saw a deterioration in its rating. A number of anti-corruption campaigns in Asia were discussed as potentially improving political risk outlooks by reducing uncertainty. The newsletter provides regional overviews of political risks, noting both improvements and deteriorations across various countries and risks.
"Tunisia's debt ratio increased sharply to almost 70% of GDP at the end of 2017 and higher than anticipated spending pressures and a heavy public sector wage bill limit its budget flexibility"
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
Global growth was subdued at 2.1% in 2013 but is expected to improve to 3.0-3.3% in 2014-2015. Inflation remains low worldwide due to excess capacity and unemployment. Unemployment remains high, especially in Europe, with rates over 25% in Greece and Spain. International trade growth weakened to 2.3% in 2013 but is projected to rise to 4.6-5.1% in 2014-2015. Capital flows to emerging markets declined in 2013 and volatility increased due to tapering of US monetary stimulus. Risks to the outlook include a disorderly exit from quantitative easing and slowing growth in large emerging markets.
Our extensive coverage of the Americas this month
includes an update on the United States that will examine
whether the disappointing economic growth data for the
fourth quarter of 2015 is cause for deep concern, assess
the risk of further battling between President Barack
Obama and the opposition-controlled Congress that
could derail a weak but sustained recovery, and provide an
early assessment of how the November presidential and
congressional elections might turn out. PRS will also issue
an update on Guatemala, where a political crisis driven
by revelations of a massive network
Global economic outlook due to covid 19M S Siddiqui
Global coordination and cooperation-of the measures needed to slow the spread of the pandemic, and of the economic actions needed to alleviate the economic damage, including international support-provide the greatest chance of achieving public health goals and enabling a robust global recovery.
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
Quarterly Report. Perspectives on Global and Spanish economy Q2-2019Círculo de Empresarios
The main international organisations (IMF, OECD, European Commission, etc.) continue to downgrade their growth expectations in light of the new geopolitical and economic scenario. Q1 2019 has been marked by the darkening economic outlook, the waning confidence of the private sector, and the mounting global uncertainty, which is at record levels of 2016, mainly due to the impact of trade tensions between the US and China, the fears associated with Brexit, the weakening of the multilateral trade, the lack of leadership, and the rise of populism.
Globally, the slowdown in growth is confirmed, although better prospects are maintained for 2020. In advanced economies, there is a less robust & synchronised progress, symptoms of nearing the end of the expansion phase of the business cycle, and the US & euro area economies are decoupling. The US maintains a growth rate of over 2% per year & an unemployment rate at record lows, although the expansionary effect of its fiscal policy is beginning to subside. On the other hand, there is less dynamism in the EU, mainly due to the weakness of the German industry, the political & economic fragility of Italy, and the institutional crisis of the United Kingdom stemming from the indetermination of the final agreement of the Brexit.
Macroeconomic imbalances persist in emerging countries, mainly in Turkey and Argentina, given their high debt levels, and the evolution of their growth & inflation rates. All this in a context contingent on the monetary policy of the main central banks, the evolution of oil price & other raw materials, the trade war, and lower profits margins.
View more documents https://circulodeempresarios.org/en/coleccion/informe-trimestral-en/
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic conditions in March 2016. Key points include:
- Nigeria's economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter and is expected to grow only 2% in Q1 2016.
- Inflation spiked to a 34-month high of 11.4% due to forex shortages and fuel scarcity.
- Unemployment and underemployment rose sharply, especially among youth.
- The stock market and FAAC allocations declined while the "misery index" measuring inflation and unemployment increased.
- Regional and global factors like lower Chinese and commodity prices pose challenges for Nigeria's economic outlook.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
Tightening labour markets: threat or opportunity for HR service providers? The presentation start with an economic outlook and the conséquences for the labour market in Belgium. With some concluding remarks voor HR service providers.
Policy Uncertainty Increased by Abbott’s Ouster - Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing Liberal Party (LP), and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the National Party (NP), would lose
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and key trends that will impact the retail industry in 2020. It discusses uncertainties from trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions. Major economies like the US, Eurozone, China, and others are expected to see subdued growth. Inflation remains low globally and monetary policies remain accommodative despite some risks. Uncertainty from the US-China trade war and a slowing global economy pose challenges for retailers in 2020.
This document provides an overview of the Trade and Development Report 2013 published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. It summarizes that five years after the global financial crisis, the world economy remains fragile with slow growth. Developed countries are expected to grow around 1% while developing countries may grow around 5%. International trade has slowed significantly and global recovery is uncertain as fiscal austerity in many countries is adding to deflationary forces. A rebalancing of growth strategies in developing countries away from exports toward domestic demand is needed given weak global demand.
This document provides a quarterly macroeconomic update for Q1 2019. It discusses slowing global growth while the US and EU continue growing. Inflation is rising due to tight labor markets but falling oil prices are holding it back short-term. Emerging markets and China are growing more slowly. The document also summarizes economic indicators and trends in the Nordic region, including GDP, inflation, unemployment, consumer confidence, car registrations, employment, construction, and currencies.
- Global growth remains subdued at 3.2% in 2019 and is projected to reach 3.5% in 2020, lower than previous forecasts due to ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
- Momentum in global activity was soft in the first half of 2019, with weaker performance in emerging markets offsetting better results in some advanced economies. Investment and consumer spending have been weak across many countries.
- Downside risks to the global economic outlook have increased since April, including potential further escalation of trade conflicts, exposure of financial vulnerabilities, and rising disinflationary pressures. Multilateral policy coordination is needed to support growth.
The document provides an overview of the global and Botswana economies in the 4th quarter of 2009. Key points include:
- The global economy is recovering from recession but growth is uneven, with emerging markets growing faster than developed countries. Risks remain such as high government debt levels.
- In Botswana, diamond production and exports recovered partially in 2009 but remain below previous levels. Inflation fell sharply while interest rates were cut. The non-mining economy showed resilience.
- Going forward, risks include rising oil prices driving inflation up. Fiscal sustainability concerns will constrain government spending support for the economy in 2010. The recovery is expected to be uneven across sectors.
The Dominican Republic experienced strong GDP growth of 7% in 2014, making it the best performing Caribbean economy for the second year in a row. GDP growth is forecast to remain solid at around 4.4-4.5% in 2015-2016. In 2014, tourism arrivals increased by 9.4% to a record 5.7 million visitors and tourism revenues exceeded $5.6 billion. The government took advantage of the strong economic conditions to improve financial stability by issuing $2.5 billion in bonds and using the funds to pay off debt owed to Venezuela. GDP growth, moderate inflation, a narrowing current account deficit, and macroeconomic stability are expected to continue supporting the economy if structural reforms are implemented to improve
Few empirical studies have looked specifically at the contribution of financial sector development to transition economies' growth, although developed financial markets have been generally assumed to be crucial to supporting growth performance. An empirical exercise that relates GDP growth to a range of variables finds some support for the proposition that financial sector development—in particular the role of foreign-owned banks—had a significant positive impact on transition economies' growth during the past decade.
The results of elections held in eastern Europe this year do not indicate any clear shifts in regional trends or direction. Bulgaria and Romania are set to join the EU on January 1st 2007 (at most there could have been a one-year delay until January 2008), but this will be under the strictest conditions ever applied to new members. Acrimonious negotiations on the final status of Kosovo appear to be grinding towards an impasse and possible crisis. It is difficult to predict the effects on developments in the wider region—not only in restive and resentful Serbia, but also in Bosnia and Hercegovina (BiH), Macedonia and possibly further afield. This is occurring when the EU's most effective instrument for influencing developments in the region—the offer of EU membership—has been seriously weakened by the anti-enlargement mood sweeping western Europe.
China's Current Challenges – A Dummies GuideAmir Khan
China's economy has been slowing in recent years due to both cyclical and structural factors. Some of the key structural challenges include demographic changes as China ages, excessive debt accumulation, and diminishing returns from investment and catch-up growth. These challenges are of global concern given China's large role in the world economy. Policymakers are trying to stabilize growth through fiscal and monetary stimulus, but reforms to address underlying issues face limitations.
See what The PRS Group is covering in our September reports: This month’s coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Cuba, which re-established normal diplomatic relations with the US for the first time in more than 50 years in early August. The easing of restrictions on travel from the US to the island
Georgia's economy faced negative shocks in 2008 from the Russia-Georgia war and the global economic crisis, hurting foreign investment. From 2008-2011, Georgia received $4.5 billion in international aid. Despite challenges, certain sectors saw significant growth, such as financial intermediation and electricity. However, GDP growth was driven more by consumption than investment and exports. The trade deficit widened as imports grew faster than exports in the first quarter of 2011. Foreign direct investment also increased compared to 2009-2010, focusing on industries like mining and manufacturing.
Complementing the annual Political Risk Map, Aon’s political risk newsletter is developed in partnership with Roubini Global Economics, an independent, global research firm originally founded in 2004 by renowned economist Nouriel Roubini. The newsletter is released on a quarterly basis and provides insight into levels and types of Political Risk in non-EU and -OECD countries.
This summary provides an overview of country risk ratings changes in Q2 2016 based on Aon's political risk newsletter. Two countries saw improvements - Argentina was upgraded from high to medium-high risk and Guinea Conakry improved from very high to high risk. Comoros saw a deterioration from medium-high to high risk. Signs of reduced populism in Latin America, like leadership changes in Argentina and Brazil, may improve political and economic conditions going forward, according to the analysis.
Economic outlook for 2018 – more bumps in the road?DIXI Group
Macro FI CEE Special Ukraine
After a rather stable 2017, 2018 could become bumpier as elections and debt payments loom in 2019
Relations with foreign partners more strained on limited reform zeal and less patience of partners
Baseline scenario of moderate growth, somewhat weaker UAH and a return to single digit infl ation
No rating and outlook change expected; tight Eurobonds spreads might see a correction in the short run
PRS’ coverage of the Americas in May includes an update on Chile, where the center-left coalition government is encountering political headwinds. President Michelle Bachelet’s approval rating has plummeted amid a spate of corruption scandals, including a charge of influence-peddling against her son, and dissatisfaction among the electorate with the weak performance of the economy, which government critics have blamed on uncertainty created by the New Majority administration’s tax and labor reforms.
PRS’ coverage of the Americas in July includes an assessment of risk in Ecuador, where President Rafael Correa is scrambling to make up a massive revenue shortfall resulting from the slide in global oil prices, while simultaneously attempting to fend off pressure from a reinvigorated opposition. PRS will discuss the implications of the fiscal squeeze for political stability in the near term,
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2018Latvijas Banka
Macroeconomic Developments Report:
External Demand;
Financial Conditions;
Sectoral Development;
GDP Analysis from the Demand Side;
Labour Market;
Costs and Prices;
Conclusions and Forecasts;
The Fiscal Impact of Inequality Measures. Analysis of Scenarios.
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
Quarterly Report. Perspectives on Global and Spanish economy Q2-2019Círculo de Empresarios
The main international organisations (IMF, OECD, European Commission, etc.) continue to downgrade their growth expectations in light of the new geopolitical and economic scenario. Q1 2019 has been marked by the darkening economic outlook, the waning confidence of the private sector, and the mounting global uncertainty, which is at record levels of 2016, mainly due to the impact of trade tensions between the US and China, the fears associated with Brexit, the weakening of the multilateral trade, the lack of leadership, and the rise of populism.
Globally, the slowdown in growth is confirmed, although better prospects are maintained for 2020. In advanced economies, there is a less robust & synchronised progress, symptoms of nearing the end of the expansion phase of the business cycle, and the US & euro area economies are decoupling. The US maintains a growth rate of over 2% per year & an unemployment rate at record lows, although the expansionary effect of its fiscal policy is beginning to subside. On the other hand, there is less dynamism in the EU, mainly due to the weakness of the German industry, the political & economic fragility of Italy, and the institutional crisis of the United Kingdom stemming from the indetermination of the final agreement of the Brexit.
Macroeconomic imbalances persist in emerging countries, mainly in Turkey and Argentina, given their high debt levels, and the evolution of their growth & inflation rates. All this in a context contingent on the monetary policy of the main central banks, the evolution of oil price & other raw materials, the trade war, and lower profits margins.
View more documents https://circulodeempresarios.org/en/coleccion/informe-trimestral-en/
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic conditions in March 2016. Key points include:
- Nigeria's economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter and is expected to grow only 2% in Q1 2016.
- Inflation spiked to a 34-month high of 11.4% due to forex shortages and fuel scarcity.
- Unemployment and underemployment rose sharply, especially among youth.
- The stock market and FAAC allocations declined while the "misery index" measuring inflation and unemployment increased.
- Regional and global factors like lower Chinese and commodity prices pose challenges for Nigeria's economic outlook.
D&B's 2013 mid-year Global Economic Outlook gives an update on regional insights, upgrades and downgrades for countries around the world so far in 2013, as well as a prediction for these economies through 2017.
Tightening labour markets: threat or opportunity for HR service providers? The presentation start with an economic outlook and the conséquences for the labour market in Belgium. With some concluding remarks voor HR service providers.
Policy Uncertainty Increased by Abbott’s Ouster - Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been ousted as leader of the main governing Liberal Party (LP), and will be replaced as head of government by Malcolm Turnbull, who convinced enough of his party colleagues that the coalition of the LP and its traditional partner, the National Party (NP), would lose
This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and key trends that will impact the retail industry in 2020. It discusses uncertainties from trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions. Major economies like the US, Eurozone, China, and others are expected to see subdued growth. Inflation remains low globally and monetary policies remain accommodative despite some risks. Uncertainty from the US-China trade war and a slowing global economy pose challenges for retailers in 2020.
This document provides an overview of the Trade and Development Report 2013 published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. It summarizes that five years after the global financial crisis, the world economy remains fragile with slow growth. Developed countries are expected to grow around 1% while developing countries may grow around 5%. International trade has slowed significantly and global recovery is uncertain as fiscal austerity in many countries is adding to deflationary forces. A rebalancing of growth strategies in developing countries away from exports toward domestic demand is needed given weak global demand.
This document provides a quarterly macroeconomic update for Q1 2019. It discusses slowing global growth while the US and EU continue growing. Inflation is rising due to tight labor markets but falling oil prices are holding it back short-term. Emerging markets and China are growing more slowly. The document also summarizes economic indicators and trends in the Nordic region, including GDP, inflation, unemployment, consumer confidence, car registrations, employment, construction, and currencies.
- Global growth remains subdued at 3.2% in 2019 and is projected to reach 3.5% in 2020, lower than previous forecasts due to ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
- Momentum in global activity was soft in the first half of 2019, with weaker performance in emerging markets offsetting better results in some advanced economies. Investment and consumer spending have been weak across many countries.
- Downside risks to the global economic outlook have increased since April, including potential further escalation of trade conflicts, exposure of financial vulnerabilities, and rising disinflationary pressures. Multilateral policy coordination is needed to support growth.
The document provides an overview of the global and Botswana economies in the 4th quarter of 2009. Key points include:
- The global economy is recovering from recession but growth is uneven, with emerging markets growing faster than developed countries. Risks remain such as high government debt levels.
- In Botswana, diamond production and exports recovered partially in 2009 but remain below previous levels. Inflation fell sharply while interest rates were cut. The non-mining economy showed resilience.
- Going forward, risks include rising oil prices driving inflation up. Fiscal sustainability concerns will constrain government spending support for the economy in 2010. The recovery is expected to be uneven across sectors.
The Dominican Republic experienced strong GDP growth of 7% in 2014, making it the best performing Caribbean economy for the second year in a row. GDP growth is forecast to remain solid at around 4.4-4.5% in 2015-2016. In 2014, tourism arrivals increased by 9.4% to a record 5.7 million visitors and tourism revenues exceeded $5.6 billion. The government took advantage of the strong economic conditions to improve financial stability by issuing $2.5 billion in bonds and using the funds to pay off debt owed to Venezuela. GDP growth, moderate inflation, a narrowing current account deficit, and macroeconomic stability are expected to continue supporting the economy if structural reforms are implemented to improve
Few empirical studies have looked specifically at the contribution of financial sector development to transition economies' growth, although developed financial markets have been generally assumed to be crucial to supporting growth performance. An empirical exercise that relates GDP growth to a range of variables finds some support for the proposition that financial sector development—in particular the role of foreign-owned banks—had a significant positive impact on transition economies' growth during the past decade.
The results of elections held in eastern Europe this year do not indicate any clear shifts in regional trends or direction. Bulgaria and Romania are set to join the EU on January 1st 2007 (at most there could have been a one-year delay until January 2008), but this will be under the strictest conditions ever applied to new members. Acrimonious negotiations on the final status of Kosovo appear to be grinding towards an impasse and possible crisis. It is difficult to predict the effects on developments in the wider region—not only in restive and resentful Serbia, but also in Bosnia and Hercegovina (BiH), Macedonia and possibly further afield. This is occurring when the EU's most effective instrument for influencing developments in the region—the offer of EU membership—has been seriously weakened by the anti-enlargement mood sweeping western Europe.
China's Current Challenges – A Dummies GuideAmir Khan
China's economy has been slowing in recent years due to both cyclical and structural factors. Some of the key structural challenges include demographic changes as China ages, excessive debt accumulation, and diminishing returns from investment and catch-up growth. These challenges are of global concern given China's large role in the world economy. Policymakers are trying to stabilize growth through fiscal and monetary stimulus, but reforms to address underlying issues face limitations.
See what The PRS Group is covering in our September reports: This month’s coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Cuba, which re-established normal diplomatic relations with the US for the first time in more than 50 years in early August. The easing of restrictions on travel from the US to the island
Georgia's economy faced negative shocks in 2008 from the Russia-Georgia war and the global economic crisis, hurting foreign investment. From 2008-2011, Georgia received $4.5 billion in international aid. Despite challenges, certain sectors saw significant growth, such as financial intermediation and electricity. However, GDP growth was driven more by consumption than investment and exports. The trade deficit widened as imports grew faster than exports in the first quarter of 2011. Foreign direct investment also increased compared to 2009-2010, focusing on industries like mining and manufacturing.
Complementing the annual Political Risk Map, Aon’s political risk newsletter is developed in partnership with Roubini Global Economics, an independent, global research firm originally founded in 2004 by renowned economist Nouriel Roubini. The newsletter is released on a quarterly basis and provides insight into levels and types of Political Risk in non-EU and -OECD countries.
This summary provides an overview of country risk ratings changes in Q2 2016 based on Aon's political risk newsletter. Two countries saw improvements - Argentina was upgraded from high to medium-high risk and Guinea Conakry improved from very high to high risk. Comoros saw a deterioration from medium-high to high risk. Signs of reduced populism in Latin America, like leadership changes in Argentina and Brazil, may improve political and economic conditions going forward, according to the analysis.
Economic outlook for 2018 – more bumps in the road?DIXI Group
Macro FI CEE Special Ukraine
After a rather stable 2017, 2018 could become bumpier as elections and debt payments loom in 2019
Relations with foreign partners more strained on limited reform zeal and less patience of partners
Baseline scenario of moderate growth, somewhat weaker UAH and a return to single digit infl ation
No rating and outlook change expected; tight Eurobonds spreads might see a correction in the short run
PRS’ coverage of the Americas in May includes an update on Chile, where the center-left coalition government is encountering political headwinds. President Michelle Bachelet’s approval rating has plummeted amid a spate of corruption scandals, including a charge of influence-peddling against her son, and dissatisfaction among the electorate with the weak performance of the economy, which government critics have blamed on uncertainty created by the New Majority administration’s tax and labor reforms.
PRS’ coverage of the Americas in July includes an assessment of risk in Ecuador, where President Rafael Correa is scrambling to make up a massive revenue shortfall resulting from the slide in global oil prices, while simultaneously attempting to fend off pressure from a reinvigorated opposition. PRS will discuss the implications of the fiscal squeeze for political stability in the near term,
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2018Latvijas Banka
Macroeconomic Developments Report:
External Demand;
Financial Conditions;
Sectoral Development;
GDP Analysis from the Demand Side;
Labour Market;
Costs and Prices;
Conclusions and Forecasts;
The Fiscal Impact of Inequality Measures. Analysis of Scenarios.
The APCO Geopolitical Risk Radar (AGRR) offers a timely snapshot of the global operating environment for businesses. It predicts how regional risks come together at a global level and offers a baseline from which to develop strategies to navigate, mitigate and grow through these risks.
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND UPDATEdynamo777
Global economic growth is projected to slow from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023 and then rise to 3.1% in 2024. Inflation is expected to fall globally from 8.8% in 2022 to 6.6% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024, remaining above pre-pandemic levels. Monetary policy tightening is starting to cool demand and inflation but the full impact will not be seen until 2024. Downside risks remain from further escalation of the war in Ukraine, debt distress, and financial market repricing in response to inflation news.
Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a new report on Chile, where President Michelle Bachelet continues
to make progress on fulfi lling her ambitious campaign promises, but an economic slump has contributed to the steady
erosion of her popular support. With her net approval rating now negative, the window securing approval of key
elements of the reform
Here are the key points from the Central Bank section:
- The central bank has increased the public sector credit growth ceiling to 10.9% for the second half of the fiscal year, up from its previous projection of 8.5%, in light of higher growth in the first half.
- Interest rates on savings certificates offered by the central bank (around 12%) remain significantly higher than deposit rates offered by commercial banks (6-7%).
- The central bank's monetary policy statement projected GDP growth will be between 7.5-8.2% for fiscal year 2018-19.
- A priority is bringing down default loans by ensuring better corporate governance in the financial sector.
The document provides summaries of risk assessments for several countries that will be covered in an upcoming publication from PRS Group. Updates are provided on political and economic risks in Mexico, Tunisia, Cameroon, Portugal, the UK, Russia, and South Korea. Risks ranging from drug violence and corruption in Mexico to the impacts of Boko Haram in Cameroon and economic challenges in Portugal and Russia are examined.
Ivo Pezzuto - UNITED STATES: IS A SLOWDOWN IN THE OFFING? (The Global Analyst...Dr. Ivo Pezzuto
The US economy contracted in the first quarter of 2015 but is expected to rebound in the coming quarters barring any major shocks. Factors that contributed to the contraction include harsh winter weather, port strikes, a stronger dollar, lower oil prices hurting investment and exports. While industrial production has weakened, business and consumer confidence remain upbeat. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise rates in June but a rate hike in September or December is possible if growth averages 2% and unemployment falls to 5% with inflation near 2%. However, the situation in Greece poses risks and a resolution is needed to prevent further deterioration and ensure long-term growth in Europe. A new framework with fiscal and financial integration may be needed to minimize spillover risks
Whitepaper: Latin America: Room for growthDubaiChamber
Latin America: Room for growth is an Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) report, commissioned by Dubai Chamber. The report discusses the current economic and political climate in Latin America and explores sectors that present opportunities for economic growth—particularly trade-related infrastructure and the services sector. The findings are based on desk research and interviews with experts in the topic.
Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar - The Global Operating Environment for BusinessAPCO
The Q2 2024 APCO Geopolitical Radar which anticipates the opportunities and risks global businesses will face in the coming months. You can find prior editions at the APCO website.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
The document discusses the challenges governments face in withdrawing fiscal and monetary stimulus programs as economic recovery takes hold. It notes that withdrawing support too soon could undermine the recovery, but waiting too long risks unsustainable debt levels and inflation. Most developed nations will likely pursue a gradual tightening over the next year or two. Asia is already beginning to tighten policies as some countries see strong growth return. Overall recovery in 2010 may slow as liquidity declines, but the foundations for rising asset prices remain in place, leaving the author cautiously optimistic.
The Ukrainian economy recovered modestly by 2.3% in 2016, with a bumper agriculture harvest leading to stronger growth of 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Decisive reforms in the face of unprecedented shocks in 2014 and 2015 helped to stabilize confidence.
As a result, real GDP grew modestly by 2.3 percent in 2016 after contracting by a cumulative 16 percent in the previous two years. Signs of stronger growth of 4.8 percent (y-o-y) emerged in the fourth quarter of 2016. The recovery was supported by a bumper harvest, with agriculture growing by 6 percent in 2016 overall and 18.4 percent (y-o-y) in the fourth quarter.
The document provides an overview of the global and Botswana economies in the 4th quarter of 2009. Key points include:
- The global economy is recovering from recession but growth is uneven, with emerging markets growing faster than developed countries. Risks remain such as high government debt levels.
- In Botswana, diamond production and exports recovered partially in 2009 but remain below previous levels. Inflation fell sharply while interest rates were cut. The non-mining economy showed resilience.
- Going forward, risks include rising oil prices driving inflation up. Fiscal sustainability concerns will constrain government spending support for the economy in 2010. The recovery is expected to be stronger in mining than non-mining sectors.
View the most recent commentary from The PRS Group on international macro risk.
Our monthly coverage of the Americas includes a post-election update on Brazil, where President Dilma Rousseff only narrowly secured a second term at a run-off held in late October, and both her party, the PT, and its main ally
Similar to Political risk quarterly update Q3 2016 (20)
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1. Aon Risk Solutions
Global Broking Centre | Crisis Management
Risk. Reinsurance. Human Resources.
PoliticalRisk
Quarterly
Q3 2016
Summary
This quarter, four countries experienced a deterioration in their overall
country risk ratings and just one saw an improvement; a reversal of the
trend of improvement we have seen in recent quarters.
Azerbaijan deteriorated from medium-high to high risk overall, due to
heightened risk of political violence. This has been driven by a number of
regional conflicts, most notably the conflict with Armenia over the status of
the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Djibouti also saw its overall risk level deteriorate, from medium-high to
high. This is due to the international spill-over of risks from neighbouring
Somalia and the large influx of refugees fleeing the strife in Yemen.
Overall political risk in Kuwait increased to medium; largely due to the
government’s financial position weakening as it adjusts to the new oil price
environment. This downward trend follows past downgrades in economic
risks for many oil exporting nations in the past two years, including most of
Kuwait’s GCC peers.
Finally, Zimbabwe has deteriorated further and is now considered a very
high risk country, resulting from the weakened fiscal situation and politi-
cal instability (by the latter measure, Zimbabwe is now one of the weakest
countries in the world).
The one country to improve this quarter was Madagascar, which is now
considered a medium-high risk. It has experienced small improvements across
a range of economic risks, including the risk of sovereign non-payment and the
ability of the government to stimulate the economy.
Ratingchanges
Deterioration
Azerbaijan
Djibouti
Kuwait
Zimbabwe
Improvement
Madagascar
Complementing the annual Political Risk Map, Aon’s political
risk newsletter is developed in partnership with Roubini Global
Economics, an independent, global research firm founded in 2004
by renowned economist Nouriel Roubini. The newsletter is released
on a quarterly basis and provides insight into levels and types of
Political Risk in non-EU and -OECD countries.
Registrationshitpeak
The Aon Risk Map Portal has now gained
over 10,000 registrations.
For more information or to view the portal
click on the following link:
https://www.riskmaps.aon.co.uk/
2. Political Risk Quarterly | Crisis Management | Q3 2016 2
Regional overview
Asia
Political risk ratings in Asia have been modestly improving. In the last quarter, there have been some important
breakthroughs in economic policy in India and Indonesia. This suggests a reduction in economic risk and greater
resilience; a theme we highlight in this quarter’s special feature. These economic policy trends also reflect power
consolidation, which raises some longer-term challenges in the region. In general, weaker global trade, a change in
composition of China’s import demand and some increase in government intervention suggest challenges for the
region.This is especially significant as local economies will need to rely more extensively on domestic demand and
investment in fuel growth.
Increased military spending and nationalist sentiment in East and Southeast Asia have the potential to increase
cross-border disputes and negatively impact trade. So far, the Rodrigo Duterte administration has largely left
economic policy in the Philippines unchanged, which has diminished some regional political concerns. The
government’s focus on criminal justice, however, threatens the consistency of judicial rulings, which will pose
risks to business. Along with weaker growth, the law-and-order focus could also prompt the government to
impose new restrictions on foreign investors. Meanwhile, recent economic reforms in Indonesia have done little
to overturn anti-business policies in the mining sector.
In China, the Jinping government remains focussed on consolidating power rather than pursuing economic
reform. This will increase uncertainty around the outcome of legal and political rulings affecting the business
environment, while potentially leading to disagreements between rulings made at the federal and provincial
level. The focus on short-term support for growth, including construction, has increased China’s reliance on
finance. This strategy risks greater economic volatility in coming years as the country increases existing debt
levels; already among the highest in the world. There is little sign, however, that the government is willing to pass
on losses from past investments given the associated political costs.
Meanwhile, in India, there have been some improvements to the reform process, including the passage of the
important Goods and Services Tax. Significant implementation challenges, however, remain.
Eastern Europe & CIS
There has been little change to the high level of political risk recorded across many of the CIS and Caucasus
countries rated by the risk map. The conflict in the Ukraine has increased in intensity this summer. There is,
however, only limited risk of this spreading to neighbouring regional economies. The probability of new
sanctions on Russia from either the US or the European Union is therefore relatively low. Domestically in the
Ukraine there has been very little progress on implementation of the Minsk II agreement, suggesting that the
chance of any reduction in political risk in the country is minimal in the immediate future. This will continue to
undermine investment, particularly in the banking and energy sectors.
Meanwhile, economic and social conditions in Russia remain stable. President Putin appears to have refocused on
domestic economic policy in the wake of a busy election cycle (parliamentary elections this autumn).
Russia remains challenging for foreign investors as the government continues its drive to reduce the level of
imports and its dependence on foreign capital. Although the economy seems likely to come out of recession in
the second half of 2016, its expansion will be modest. The extended period of economic contraction has weighed
heavily on the income of CIS countries, such as Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Remittances to these countries have weakened, exacerbating exchange transfer and sovereign non-payment risks.
The de-escalation of the standoff between Russia and Turkey could provide some space to address regional issues,
such as the frozen conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh region.
3. Political Risk Quarterly | Crisis Management | Q3 2016 3
Regional overview cont.
Latin America
The positive trends in Latin America and the Caribbean that we have noted in recent quarters remain on track.
Political risk in Brazil continues to improve with Michel Temer now confirmed as President following the
impeachment of former President Dilma Rousseff. Changes in the policy mix that his economic team have already
made – such as fiscal cuts – have improved confidence, while high-frequency indicators suggest the worst of
the recession is over. For longer-term investors, however, political risk will remain at a medium level; persistent
challenges in Brazil’s business environment and difficulties in remedying years of excess government intervention
in the economy prevail. Although the Temer administration will be in a much better position to implement badly
needed structural and fiscal reforms, Congress will remain fragmented and the ruling coalition fragile. The Petrobras
and other corruption investigations continue to be a potential threat to the new regime.
A growth recovery in 2017 is possible, but will depend on the government’s capacity to implement key reforms.
Brazil could well emerge stronger from the crisis, which has revealed a largely independent judicial system. Debt
dynamics will remain a concern in the medium term.
Argentina’s country risk rating should continue to improve. The correction of macro and micro imbalances continues
in key areas, such as currency and capital controls, taxation and fiscal and monetary policy. Inflation will finally start
to decelerate from very high to high levels in the second half of the year, once the effect of steep tariff adjustments
fades away. This will allow the central bank to continue easing and supporting an investment-led recovery. The main
challenge remains bringing down a high primary fiscal deficit. So far, although the government has announced
its intentions to reduce the fiscal gap, it has taken few measures to cut expenditures. Simultaneously, political and
judicial challenges to austerity measures are increasing.
Venezuela is the one noticeable source of deterioration in the region. Political violence remains high (and rising),
along with all other elements of political risk. The opposition has started to execute its plan to remove Nicolas
Maduro from power, but currently lacks sufficient support. Maduro’s government is likely to continue prioritising
paying external debt over everything else, which means imports will reduce further, increasing the shortage of basic
goods and fuelling domestic violence. There could be some spill-overs to neighbours, such as Colombia.
Middle East & North Africa
MENA remains home to many of the highest-risk countries in the world, with more deterioration in individual risk
icons than improvements this quarter. There was only one overall country risk rating change; a downgrade for
Kuwait. Despite rebounding from their 10-year low at the start of the year, oil prices remain weak. This, combined
with persistent regional conflicts, continue to place pressure on the resilience of key economies and institutions in
the region. There are few signs to suggest that this general trend towards higher political risk is likely to reverse in
the coming quarters.
International involvement in the Syrian conflict has been greatly reduced. ISIS, however, continues to pose a
threat both in the war-torn country, its close neighbours (with increased activity in Iraq and Saudi Arabia) and
globally. The ongoing conflicts, not only in Syria but also Iraq and Yemen, will maintain a focus on military and
security spending. In light of lower government revenues, this will perpetuate sovereign non-payment risk.
Economic pressure on regional oil producers will continue until oil prices significantly rebound or policy
adjustments are made. This will have a greater impact on countries like Iraq, Libya and Algeria who are still
suffering from severe political and security crises. The richer and more stable countries in the Gulf Cooperation
Council are in a stronger position.
Energy importers generally have stable, although high, country risk ratings, but will suffer from difficulties in
implementing reforms (Tunisia) and a general tightening of regional financial conditions. Egypt has finally turned
to the IMF for assistance amid an acute FX shortage. Exchange transfer risks will likely increase as the pound is
expected to devalue further and stricter limits imposed on use of credit cards abroad. These policies should be
short-term challenging, but long-term positive.
4. Political Risk Quarterly | Crisis Management | Q3 2016 4
Regional overview cont.
Sub-Saharan Africa
The picture is mixed across Sub-Saharan Africa. As in the MENA region, weaker commodity prices are exerting
pressure on regional producers, generally reinforcing the high levels of country risk. Oil and metal producers, such
as Ghana, Mozambique, Nigeria, Uganda and Zambia, have seen some country risk factors deteriorate, including
legal and regulatory and exchange transfer risks.
In Nigeria, the currency may have to weaken further to ensure economic stabilisation as existing capital restrictions
and thin liquidity continue to weigh on investor interest. A long delay in allowing the currency to adjust has helped
to cripple the non-oil economy; recovery is anticipated to occur very slowly through 2017. Implementation risks
around infrastructure remain significant.
Mozambique (where the political environment remains volatile), Uganda and Angola have all seen public-
sector arrears to the private sector increase. FX shortage and currency depreciations have heightened sovereign
non-payment and exchange transfer risks. Meanwhile, Uganda and Tanzania could suffer from further delays in
developing their oil and gas resources given the global energy-sector investment cuts.
By contrast, oil-importing nations in East Africa have experienced a modest reduction in risk. Notably Ethiopia
and Kenya’s outlooks have improved both politically and economically as a result of recent regulatory reforms and
reduced levels of political violence.
In the spotlight: Asian Infrastructure
This quarter, we look at the state of planned infrastructure investment programmes in key countries in South and
Southeast Asia and assess the impact they could have on the evolution of political risk.
Although institutional risks across the region are relatively stable and overall political risks have been falling, there
continue to be significant implementation risks around planned investment programmes. Such risks will limit the
resilience of these economies to global shocks—in particular, the structural slowdown in China.
Malaysia – Strong fundamentals continue to support the Malaysian economy despite the political noise around the
1MDB scandal. There has, however, been an increase in the reliance on government spending to support overall
growth, which poses questions about its sustainability in the long term. Capital investment growth slowed last
year as both private and public investment stalled during a period of greater political uncertainty. This picked up
modestly in the first half of 2016 and, despite some volatility in investment spending levels, the government appears
committed to infrastructure projects such as the Light Rail Transit (LRT) 3 project, Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) and
High Speed Rail projects. When completed, these should reduce the country’s exposure to shocks and increase the
ability of the government to foster domestic demand and diversify the country’s trade profile.
Indonesia – Indonesia has long suffered from a lack of adequate infrastructure. For years the government has
not prioritised infrastructure spending; struggling to spend the small amount allocated to it in national budgets.
Mismanagement, corruption and incompetence have also contributed to the tepid growth of infrastructure
development, preventing the economy from reaching its full potential.
Since President Joko Widodo came to power in October 2014 there has been a renewed focus on infrastructure.
Reform packages have been introduced to boost private investment and improve efficiency in the economy. These
have focussed on cutting red tape, reducing energy subsidies, improving the infrastructure tender process and
speeding up land-clearing. The government has also significantly raised the allocation for infrastructure spending in
both the 2015 and 2016 State Budgets. A recently announced tax amnesty is expected to attract additional revenue
of around Rp 165 trillion, most of which has been earmarked for infrastructure development. Financial and technical
resources, however, remain limited. For this reason, the government is focusing more on building public-private
partnerships and attracting private infrastructure investment, often from abroad. However, there are still a number of
key sectors that are relatively off-limits to foreigners.
5. Political Risk Quarterly | Crisis Management | Q3 2016 5
Philippines – Foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Philippines has traditionally lagged behind that of many of its
Southeast Asian neighbours, although the gap has begun to close. Remittances and wage-supported consumption,
however, remain the major drivers of economic growth.
Economic risks have generally been easing and the country is well positioned to cope with global shocks, including lower
reliance on trade with and demand from China. However, government expenditure, in particular public investment
in infrastructure development, was a point of contention for the previous Aquino administration. With the election
of President Rodrigo Duterte, infrastructure spending now appears to be on a more positive path given the focus his
economic team are expected to place on increasing infrastructure spending and attracting FDI. We expect to see some
further reductions in political risk and some improvement in the country’s balance sheet in the coming quarters.
India – India’s infrastructure needs are extensive. Investment, however, has remained insufficient for years due to
high interest rates and inflation, the glacial rate of coalition policy making, hefty fiscal deficits and a deepening
current account deficit.
The Narendra Modi government has been focused on infrastructure development and has increased spending in
recent national budgets. It has also begun shifting away from public-private partnerships to more direct investment,
while also taking steps to liberalise the country’s FDI policies.
The more meaningful improvements in reducing obstacles to investment have come at state rather than the national
level. Therefore whether local breakthroughs and pilot projects will be rolled out on a broader scale remains to
be seen. Domestic political risks, including political violence and crime, excessive bureaucracy and government
intervention in the economy remain impediments to successful implementation of policies. Meanwhile, the recent
pressure on the central bank governor, including public questioning of the policy regime, have raised concerns
about India’s commitment to inflation targeting and running stable macroeconomic policy. This presents significant
risks to private investment. Although we do not anticipate major changes in policy, we expect the gap between
policy making and policy implementation to continue, exacerbating the risks associated with investment-led
growth. In general, though, we envisage India moving in a more constructive direction, albeit slowly.
Country Risk Rating Overview
Improvement to country risk rating
Madagascar (medium-high) saw slight reductions in the risk of sovereign non-payment and risks around the in-
ability of the government to provide stimulus during a recession.
Deterioration in country risk rating
Azerbaijan (high) saw an increase in the risk of political violence, exchange transfer risk and banking sector vul-
nerability risk.
Djibouti (high) suffered an increase in the risk of political violence, banking sector vulnerability risk and risks aris-
ing from the government’s inability to stimulate the economy during a recession.
Kuwait (medium) saw increases in the risk of political violence, the risk of sovereign non-payment and banking
sector vulnerability risk.
Zimbabwe (very high) experienced an increase in risks around exchange transfer and banking sector vulnerability.