Industrial production and economic growth in Mongolia continued to slow in the first quarter of 2015, with mining and electricity production experiencing weaker growth compared to previous periods. Exports also declined significantly in February and March due to falling commodity prices, worsening the current account balance. Deteriorating asset quality and tighter credit conditions in the banking sector added pressure to the economy.
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambiaKampamba Shula
On the 17th of November 18, 2016 I made a presentation at the FNB Financial Journalism academy on “The Global Economy Effects on Commodity dependent countries like Zambia”. It was well received. Below are some of the highlights
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent global economic and financial market developments. It summarizes that the ECB began a large quantitative easing program in March 2015 that has significantly impacted bond and currency markets. It also discusses that the US Federal Reserve signaled a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Emerging market currencies have come under pressure due to diverging monetary policies and lower oil prices. Developing country growth was broadly in line with forecasts in 2014, but indicators suggest softening activity in early 2015.
The global economy continues its recovery led by emerging markets, while advanced economies growth remains weak. Core inflation in major advanced economies is moderating, but rising in emerging markets. The Indian economy grew around 7.2% in 2009-2010, led by private consumption, government spending, and investments. However, inflation accelerated sharply due to rising food and fuel prices. While credit growth improved, high government borrowing and rising inflation will pose challenges to managing monetary policy going forward.
Monthly Newsletter on key sectors of Pakistan Economy with updates on Money Market and Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and latest numbers of Inflation, Current and Fiscal Account.
This monthly briefing highlights that financing conditions improve in euro area peripheral countries and in emerging economies, that the US economy bounces back after a difficult first quarter and that China’s first-quarter GDP growth is the slowest in two years.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambiaKampamba Shula
On the 17th of November 18, 2016 I made a presentation at the FNB Financial Journalism academy on “The Global Economy Effects on Commodity dependent countries like Zambia”. It was well received. Below are some of the highlights
The document provides an overview and analysis of recent global economic and financial market developments. It summarizes that the ECB began a large quantitative easing program in March 2015 that has significantly impacted bond and currency markets. It also discusses that the US Federal Reserve signaled a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Emerging market currencies have come under pressure due to diverging monetary policies and lower oil prices. Developing country growth was broadly in line with forecasts in 2014, but indicators suggest softening activity in early 2015.
The global economy continues its recovery led by emerging markets, while advanced economies growth remains weak. Core inflation in major advanced economies is moderating, but rising in emerging markets. The Indian economy grew around 7.2% in 2009-2010, led by private consumption, government spending, and investments. However, inflation accelerated sharply due to rising food and fuel prices. While credit growth improved, high government borrowing and rising inflation will pose challenges to managing monetary policy going forward.
Monthly Newsletter on key sectors of Pakistan Economy with updates on Money Market and Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and latest numbers of Inflation, Current and Fiscal Account.
This monthly briefing highlights that financing conditions improve in euro area peripheral countries and in emerging economies, that the US economy bounces back after a difficult first quarter and that China’s first-quarter GDP growth is the slowest in two years.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
The quarterly macroeconomic report for Romania provides the following key points:
1) Third quarter GDP growth was 8.8% year-over-year, driven mainly by agriculture, industry, and trade. However, growth is expected to slow to 4% in 2018.
2) Inflation reached 3.3% in December and is expected to peak in the first quarter of 2018 before averaging 4% for the year. The central bank has begun tightening monetary policy in response.
3) The 2018 budget deficit is planned at 3% of GDP, which could continue weighing on investments in the short-term. However, public debt remains sustainable.
The Polish economy grew by 3.0% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2010, in line with forecasts. Growth was driven by consumption, inventory restocking, and net exports. However, the economy lost momentum compared to the previous quarter due to a sharp drop in fixed business investment affected by severe winter weather. Unemployment increased in the first quarter but began falling rapidly in April, suggesting recovery is underway in the labor market. Inflation moderated in the first quarter and further in April. The central bank does not expect to change interest rates until 2011. Overall, while the economy experienced a soft patch in the first quarter, growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2010.
The economy is going through a soft patch.
Unemployment increased due to this and seasonal
factors, but started rapidly falling in April.
Macroeconomic balances mostly improved in
the 1Q10. A lot of slack in the economy helped
inflationary tensions ease in this period and the CPI
inflation rate should remain within the central bank
target band for the next four quarters at least. The
four quarter rolling current account deficit rose
slightly in terms of GDP while the central government
deficit came lower than expected.
The June 2009 FOMC meeting occurred amid improved yet still negative economic conditions. Financial markets had strengthened with rising stock prices and reduced corporate debt spreads. Interest rates in the markets were rising, which the FOMC debated could signal either tighter credit or an improving economy. The Fed staff forecast a contraction in Q2 GDP but growth returning in Q3, and unemployment peaking that year. Inflation was projected to remain subdued due to economic slack. The Fed maintained its large scale asset purchases (LSAP) while monitoring the impacts of interest rate movements and its expanding balance sheet on the economy and inflation outlook.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the US and global economies in 2014 and an outlook for 2015. In 2014, US GDP growth recovered from a weak first quarter, driven by strong growth in the second and third quarters. Unemployment continued to decline. For 2015, the outlook expects US GDP growth to reach 3.0% due to continued job growth, increased consumer spending power from lower oil prices, and a pickup in business investment. However, weakness abroad and a strong dollar may impact trade.
The document provides an overview of global markets in the 4th quarter of 2015. It discusses economic and market conditions in key regions:
- The US economy saw upward revisions to 3rd quarter GDP growth and a stronger-than-expected December jobs report, but manufacturing contracted. Global M&A reached record levels and the Fed raised interest rates.
- Growth remains weak in Europe and unemployment is over 10%, leading economists to expect the ECB to further ease monetary policy. Slower Chinese growth has reduced exports, particularly of manufactured goods.
- Other emerging markets like Russia and Brazil are in recession amid falling commodity prices and a weaker global economy. A political crisis in Brazil has intensified as impeachment proceedings began
The document summarizes Botswana's economic conditions in the second quarter of 2010. GDP grew 7.5% in the first quarter, the first positive growth since late 2008, led by a 10.1% increase in mining output. Non-mining private sector growth was lower at 5.5%. Business confidence improved but remains below pre-crisis levels, and businesses expect slower growth than official forecasts. While conditions are improving, Botswana still faces fiscal challenges from adverse medium-term trends exacerbated by the global crisis.
This document summarizes the Reserve Bank of India's 2012-13 Monetary Policy Statement. It discusses the global and domestic macroeconomic environment, providing outlooks for growth, inflation, and monetary aggregates in India. Key points include: moderating global growth concerns, high inflation and slowing growth in India, projections for 7.3% GDP growth and lower inflation in 2012-13, and measures to address high fiscal and current account deficits. The statement covers monetary policy stances and outlines regulatory and developmental policies.
Mr. William McConnell evaluates the 2016 economic conditions, concluding that real growth is at a stall despite full employment. This white paper is part of a three part series. William McConnell will publish a white paper focused on the state of the construction industry next month, followed by the state of the surety industry in July, 2016.
This document provides an overview of the 2016 state of the US economy. Key points include:
1) Real GDP growth has stalled at around 2% despite low unemployment, due to factors like declining commodity prices.
2) Unemployment remains at historically low levels around 5% but inflation remains below 2% due to international factors.
3) The Federal Reserve raised interest rates modestly in 2015 but further increases are expected to be gradual given mixed economic indicators.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
Flash Report - Hungarian Inflation - 11 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2%-ra emelkedett az éves bázisú fogyasztói árindex márciusban, azonban továbbra is számos hatás fékezi az árnyomás erősödését. Idén 2% közelében maradhat az infláció, jövőre azonban akár gyors emelkedést is láthatunk, ha az egyszeri tételek hatása kifut.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, August 2017DIXI Group
Highlights
Given the expectation of improved debt dynamics on the back of structural reforms, Moody’s has upgraded Ukraine’s sovereign rating from Caa3 to Caa2 and changed the outlook to “positive” from “stable”. The rating change is a positive event supporting Ukraine in the intent to return to the market. We expect Ukraine to issue Eurobonds this fall after the finalization of the IMF review.
Ukraine’s economy grew by 2.4% yoy in Q2 after +2.5% yoy in Q1, whereas in seasonally adjusted terms growth amounted to 0.6% qoq. This has been better than we had anticipated. Growth has likely been driven by private household demand, but also investment dynamics improved considerably. We estimate economic growth of at least 1.5% yoy in 2017, with upside risks to this forecast.
Industrial production declined by 2.6% yoy in July owing to a downturn in the mining and energy sector, while the expansion of retail sales slowed down – from 9% yoy in June to 6.8% yoy in July. In July, the growth of consumer price index (CPI) slowed down to 0.2% mom from 1.6% mom, but due to the base effect, inflation accelerated from 15.6% yoy to 15.9% yoy.
UAH strengthening persisted in most of August against the backdrop of significant tax payments that reduced LCY liquidity and forced exporters to sell more FCY. Nevertheless, most recently devaluation pressures emerged. We remain cautious, and keep our year-end USD/UAH forecast at 28.00 (eop) for the time being. Meanwhile, the liberalization of the FX market by removing administrative measures kept going.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2019Latvijas Banka
The Macroeconomic Developments Report is published on a semi-annual basis. This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
- Mongolia experienced strong economic growth of 11.7% in 2013 driven by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies following a slowdown in FDI and coal exports.
- Inflation rose to 10.4% due to currency depreciation and stimulus policies. The current account deficit narrowed but remained high at 27.4% of GDP.
- Growth is forecast to moderate to 9.5% in 2014 and recover slightly to 10% in 2015, while inflation declines, as policies tighten to address pressure on foreign reserves.
Highlights:
- Economic growth in Latvia is gathering momentum
- Household savings in banks on the rise
- Surplus in the current account for third consecutive quarter
In Focus:
- About Latvijas Banka's inflation forecast revisions in March and June 2017, by Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
The IMF has cut its growth forecasts for the Mongolian economy in 2013 and beyond due to continued weakness in the global economy, particularly in China. GDP growth in Mongolia is now expected to be 11.8% in 2013, down from a previous forecast of 14%, and growth rates are expected to slow further to 5.8% in 2015 and 3.6% in 2016. Of concern is the rebalancing underway in China towards domestic consumption, which could reduce demand for Mongolia's commodity exports. The World Economic Outlook database shows Mongolia's export growth forecasts have been significantly revised downward.
- The US stock market declined sharply in the third quarter due to concerns about a slowing global economy and uncertainty caused by Boehner's resignation.
- Central banks have intervened to support markets, but deteriorating fundamentals may eventually impact prices.
- Commodity prices fell to multi-year lows as Chinese growth slowed, while emerging markets face recession risks.
- The Fed held rates steady but may delay future hikes due to global equity declines and mixed economic data.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, June 2017Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, December 2016DIXI Group
The document summarizes Ukraine's economic situation and 2017 budget. Key points:
- Ukraine adopted a state budget for 2017 consistent with IMF parameters, but significantly raised minimum wages posing risks to stability.
- Possible policy changes under the new US administration create uncertainty for Ukraine.
- GDP growth is estimated at 1-1.5% in 2016 and projected to be 2% in 2017. Inflation ended 2016 at 12.4% and is projected to decrease to high single digits in 2017.
- The budget projects a deficit of 3% of GDP, in line with IMF targets, and will rely heavily on borrowing to finance expenditures.
Mongolia's economic growth slowed to 4.4% in Q1 2015 due to contractions in investment and final consumption. Mining GDP growth softened to 13.8% due to slowing production, while non-mining GDP growth dropped to 1.5% as wholesale and retail sectors contracted. Inflation continued moderating while the unemployment rate declined despite the slowing economy. However, the quality of employment deteriorated as informal sector jobs increased. Mongolia's current account deficit widened in April as exports declined, while the capital and financial account recorded an outflow. Gross international reserves declined but rebounded in May due to new external borrowing.
GDP growth in India picked up to 7.9% in Q1 2016 driven by private and public consumption, while exports contracted and investment growth deteriorated. Overall growth for FY2015/2016 was 7.6%. Private consumption will remain strong but sluggish investment growth and reluctance of banks to provide new credit are causes for concern. Euler Hermes expects GDP growth to stabilize at 7.6% in FY2016/2017.
The quarterly macroeconomic report for Romania provides the following key points:
1) Third quarter GDP growth was 8.8% year-over-year, driven mainly by agriculture, industry, and trade. However, growth is expected to slow to 4% in 2018.
2) Inflation reached 3.3% in December and is expected to peak in the first quarter of 2018 before averaging 4% for the year. The central bank has begun tightening monetary policy in response.
3) The 2018 budget deficit is planned at 3% of GDP, which could continue weighing on investments in the short-term. However, public debt remains sustainable.
The Polish economy grew by 3.0% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2010, in line with forecasts. Growth was driven by consumption, inventory restocking, and net exports. However, the economy lost momentum compared to the previous quarter due to a sharp drop in fixed business investment affected by severe winter weather. Unemployment increased in the first quarter but began falling rapidly in April, suggesting recovery is underway in the labor market. Inflation moderated in the first quarter and further in April. The central bank does not expect to change interest rates until 2011. Overall, while the economy experienced a soft patch in the first quarter, growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2010.
The economy is going through a soft patch.
Unemployment increased due to this and seasonal
factors, but started rapidly falling in April.
Macroeconomic balances mostly improved in
the 1Q10. A lot of slack in the economy helped
inflationary tensions ease in this period and the CPI
inflation rate should remain within the central bank
target band for the next four quarters at least. The
four quarter rolling current account deficit rose
slightly in terms of GDP while the central government
deficit came lower than expected.
The June 2009 FOMC meeting occurred amid improved yet still negative economic conditions. Financial markets had strengthened with rising stock prices and reduced corporate debt spreads. Interest rates in the markets were rising, which the FOMC debated could signal either tighter credit or an improving economy. The Fed staff forecast a contraction in Q2 GDP but growth returning in Q3, and unemployment peaking that year. Inflation was projected to remain subdued due to economic slack. The Fed maintained its large scale asset purchases (LSAP) while monitoring the impacts of interest rate movements and its expanding balance sheet on the economy and inflation outlook.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the US and global economies in 2014 and an outlook for 2015. In 2014, US GDP growth recovered from a weak first quarter, driven by strong growth in the second and third quarters. Unemployment continued to decline. For 2015, the outlook expects US GDP growth to reach 3.0% due to continued job growth, increased consumer spending power from lower oil prices, and a pickup in business investment. However, weakness abroad and a strong dollar may impact trade.
The document provides an overview of global markets in the 4th quarter of 2015. It discusses economic and market conditions in key regions:
- The US economy saw upward revisions to 3rd quarter GDP growth and a stronger-than-expected December jobs report, but manufacturing contracted. Global M&A reached record levels and the Fed raised interest rates.
- Growth remains weak in Europe and unemployment is over 10%, leading economists to expect the ECB to further ease monetary policy. Slower Chinese growth has reduced exports, particularly of manufactured goods.
- Other emerging markets like Russia and Brazil are in recession amid falling commodity prices and a weaker global economy. A political crisis in Brazil has intensified as impeachment proceedings began
The document summarizes Botswana's economic conditions in the second quarter of 2010. GDP grew 7.5% in the first quarter, the first positive growth since late 2008, led by a 10.1% increase in mining output. Non-mining private sector growth was lower at 5.5%. Business confidence improved but remains below pre-crisis levels, and businesses expect slower growth than official forecasts. While conditions are improving, Botswana still faces fiscal challenges from adverse medium-term trends exacerbated by the global crisis.
This document summarizes the Reserve Bank of India's 2012-13 Monetary Policy Statement. It discusses the global and domestic macroeconomic environment, providing outlooks for growth, inflation, and monetary aggregates in India. Key points include: moderating global growth concerns, high inflation and slowing growth in India, projections for 7.3% GDP growth and lower inflation in 2012-13, and measures to address high fiscal and current account deficits. The statement covers monetary policy stances and outlines regulatory and developmental policies.
Mr. William McConnell evaluates the 2016 economic conditions, concluding that real growth is at a stall despite full employment. This white paper is part of a three part series. William McConnell will publish a white paper focused on the state of the construction industry next month, followed by the state of the surety industry in July, 2016.
This document provides an overview of the 2016 state of the US economy. Key points include:
1) Real GDP growth has stalled at around 2% despite low unemployment, due to factors like declining commodity prices.
2) Unemployment remains at historically low levels around 5% but inflation remains below 2% due to international factors.
3) The Federal Reserve raised interest rates modestly in 2015 but further increases are expected to be gradual given mixed economic indicators.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
Flash Report - Hungarian Inflation - 11 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2%-ra emelkedett az éves bázisú fogyasztói árindex márciusban, azonban továbbra is számos hatás fékezi az árnyomás erősödését. Idén 2% közelében maradhat az infláció, jövőre azonban akár gyors emelkedést is láthatunk, ha az egyszeri tételek hatása kifut.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, August 2017DIXI Group
Highlights
Given the expectation of improved debt dynamics on the back of structural reforms, Moody’s has upgraded Ukraine’s sovereign rating from Caa3 to Caa2 and changed the outlook to “positive” from “stable”. The rating change is a positive event supporting Ukraine in the intent to return to the market. We expect Ukraine to issue Eurobonds this fall after the finalization of the IMF review.
Ukraine’s economy grew by 2.4% yoy in Q2 after +2.5% yoy in Q1, whereas in seasonally adjusted terms growth amounted to 0.6% qoq. This has been better than we had anticipated. Growth has likely been driven by private household demand, but also investment dynamics improved considerably. We estimate economic growth of at least 1.5% yoy in 2017, with upside risks to this forecast.
Industrial production declined by 2.6% yoy in July owing to a downturn in the mining and energy sector, while the expansion of retail sales slowed down – from 9% yoy in June to 6.8% yoy in July. In July, the growth of consumer price index (CPI) slowed down to 0.2% mom from 1.6% mom, but due to the base effect, inflation accelerated from 15.6% yoy to 15.9% yoy.
UAH strengthening persisted in most of August against the backdrop of significant tax payments that reduced LCY liquidity and forced exporters to sell more FCY. Nevertheless, most recently devaluation pressures emerged. We remain cautious, and keep our year-end USD/UAH forecast at 28.00 (eop) for the time being. Meanwhile, the liberalization of the FX market by removing administrative measures kept going.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2019Latvijas Banka
The Macroeconomic Developments Report is published on a semi-annual basis. This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
- Mongolia experienced strong economic growth of 11.7% in 2013 driven by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies following a slowdown in FDI and coal exports.
- Inflation rose to 10.4% due to currency depreciation and stimulus policies. The current account deficit narrowed but remained high at 27.4% of GDP.
- Growth is forecast to moderate to 9.5% in 2014 and recover slightly to 10% in 2015, while inflation declines, as policies tighten to address pressure on foreign reserves.
Highlights:
- Economic growth in Latvia is gathering momentum
- Household savings in banks on the rise
- Surplus in the current account for third consecutive quarter
In Focus:
- About Latvijas Banka's inflation forecast revisions in March and June 2017, by Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
The IMF has cut its growth forecasts for the Mongolian economy in 2013 and beyond due to continued weakness in the global economy, particularly in China. GDP growth in Mongolia is now expected to be 11.8% in 2013, down from a previous forecast of 14%, and growth rates are expected to slow further to 5.8% in 2015 and 3.6% in 2016. Of concern is the rebalancing underway in China towards domestic consumption, which could reduce demand for Mongolia's commodity exports. The World Economic Outlook database shows Mongolia's export growth forecasts have been significantly revised downward.
- The US stock market declined sharply in the third quarter due to concerns about a slowing global economy and uncertainty caused by Boehner's resignation.
- Central banks have intervened to support markets, but deteriorating fundamentals may eventually impact prices.
- Commodity prices fell to multi-year lows as Chinese growth slowed, while emerging markets face recession risks.
- The Fed held rates steady but may delay future hikes due to global equity declines and mixed economic data.
Macroeconomic Developments Report, June 2017Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, December 2016DIXI Group
The document summarizes Ukraine's economic situation and 2017 budget. Key points:
- Ukraine adopted a state budget for 2017 consistent with IMF parameters, but significantly raised minimum wages posing risks to stability.
- Possible policy changes under the new US administration create uncertainty for Ukraine.
- GDP growth is estimated at 1-1.5% in 2016 and projected to be 2% in 2017. Inflation ended 2016 at 12.4% and is projected to decrease to high single digits in 2017.
- The budget projects a deficit of 3% of GDP, in line with IMF targets, and will rely heavily on borrowing to finance expenditures.
Mongolia's economic growth slowed to 4.4% in Q1 2015 due to contractions in investment and final consumption. Mining GDP growth softened to 13.8% due to slowing production, while non-mining GDP growth dropped to 1.5% as wholesale and retail sectors contracted. Inflation continued moderating while the unemployment rate declined despite the slowing economy. However, the quality of employment deteriorated as informal sector jobs increased. Mongolia's current account deficit widened in April as exports declined, while the capital and financial account recorded an outflow. Gross international reserves declined but rebounded in May due to new external borrowing.
GDP growth in India picked up to 7.9% in Q1 2016 driven by private and public consumption, while exports contracted and investment growth deteriorated. Overall growth for FY2015/2016 was 7.6%. Private consumption will remain strong but sluggish investment growth and reluctance of banks to provide new credit are causes for concern. Euler Hermes expects GDP growth to stabilize at 7.6% in FY2016/2017.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, September 2017 DIXI Group
This document provides an economic overview and analysis of Ukraine. It discusses Ukraine's return to international bond markets in September 2017, raising $3 billion. Two key reforms were passed in October that should allow Ukraine to receive its next IMF loan tranche. GDP growth was estimated at 2.3% in Q2 2017 due to growth in household consumption and investment. Inflation remained high at 16.2% in August despite a seasonal decline in food prices. Producer price inflation accelerated to 23.6% in August.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, July 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
On 13 July, the Ukrainian Parliament approved a draft of the pension reform in the first reading. Thus, Ukraine moved one step closer to the next IMF tranche, and in our base case scenario the fourth review may be accomplished and the fifth tranche be released this fall.
After the decline in industrial output earlier this year, recent development shows a return to growth. Retail sales dynamics remain strong. Nevertheless, the National Bank slightly cut its growth estimate for this year on the weak H1 and a weaker harvest estimate. We keep our conservative growth estimate of 1.5% yoy for the time being.
Inflation surprised to the upside to 15.6% on higher food prices in June. We now see growing risk that inflation may leave targeted for this year range (8% yoy +/-2 pp) from the upper bound, i.e. resulting in low double-digit inflation at year-end. So far, we keep our 2017 forecast at 9.5% yoy (eop).
UAH strengthened vis-a-vis the dollar in July, falling below the level of USD/UAH 26 and allowing the NBU to increase FX reserves to almost USD 18 bn. With inflation risks elevated, the NBU stopped cutting its key rate and kept it stable at 12.5% in July and August. However, some additional restrictions on the FX market were removed or may be removed soon.
The document provides a market and economic outlook report for June 2013. It identifies several positive factors for the Indian markets in the coming months, including strong FII inflows due to quantitative easing by Japan and the US. GDP growth is seen to have bottomed out, and inflation is expected to continue declining. The report also notes that rate cuts are likely to continue and commodity prices are declining. Key projects are moving forward and the monsoon is on schedule. Reliance also reported a significant gas find.
Korea Financial Market Review_202101_0609. The Bank of Korea expects South Ko...Ethan lee
While the global economy is generally recovering, uncertainty persists due to the recurrence and prolongation of the COVID-19 pandemic and Korea's manufacturing sector is recovering, the service sector continues to experience a slowdown due to COVID-19.
The Bank of Korea expects South Korea's economic growth to recover to a range of 2.1-4.8% in 2021, predicting that the country's economy will recover to 3.0% growth this year as the global economy continues to improve moderately due to the impact of stimulus programs in major economies and improving global investor sentiment.
- Commodity prices, including agricultural, metals, and oil prices declined in early 2013 due to weak global demand and increased supplies. Global trade growth barely expanded over the first quarter of 2013 and slowed below 1% due to sluggish global demand.
- The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.5% in the first quarter, led by private consumption and investment. Unemployment fell slightly. Japan's economy exhibited some growth in the first quarter but levels remained below pre-crisis levels.
- The ECB cut interest rates and maintained unconventional monetary policies to stimulate the weak eurozone economy, which remains in recession. Economic growth was subdued or declined across many developed and emerging
The document provides an overview and analysis of China's economic developments in the first half of 2009. It discusses three main points:
1) While China's economy has continued to feel the effects of the global crisis, very expansionary fiscal and monetary policies have supported growth. Government investment has soared while market investment has lagged. Consumption has held up well.
2) Exports remain very weak but imports have recovered as stimulus has boosted demand for raw materials. GDP growth was a respectable 6% in the first quarter.
3) Downward pressure on inflation has continued as falling raw material prices drag down prices, but overcapacity is squeezing industry profits. Growth is projected to remain around 7%
This document provides a monthly report from the Bank of Japan on recent economic and financial developments in Japan. The summary is as follows:
1) Japan's economy appears to have stopped weakening, though exports continue to decrease at a slower pace. Domestic demand has remained resilient.
2) Going forward, the economy is expected to stabilize in the near term before returning to a moderate recovery, supported by resilient domestic demand and improvements in overseas economies. Exports are projected to stop decreasing and gradually increase.
3) Financial conditions remain accommodative, with low interest rates and ample corporate funding, despite some weakness in business investment, particularly in manufacturing.
1) The March quarter saw stronger than expected GDP growth of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter and 3.1% year-on-year, driven by net exports, consumer spending, and dwelling investment.
2) While headline GDP growth appears favorable, domestic economic activity outside of housing remains sluggish, with private demand and business investment declining.
3) The information, media, and telecommunications sector continues to outperform the broader economy, with annual growth of 5.5% compared to 3.1% for GDP overall, driven by technological developments and demand for data across fixed and mobile networks.
A more simplified and reader-friendly version of P.K Basu's - India Economic Outlook - 2014. It deduces from past trends and outlines the current economic scenario around the world and its implications on the Indian economy.
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This article about study of current situation of economy and pandemic impact on global economy. How long it will take to recover with the quote of GDP growth and Service PMI of key nations.
1. The document analyzes economic indicators and recovery efforts in various countries in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds signs of partial, uneven recovery as countries reopen and consumer spending increases but long-term impacts remain uncertain.
2. Purchasing Managers' Index data shows a sharper than expected recovery in many countries in May, though growth remains below pre-pandemic levels. Services sectors are recovering more slowly than others.
3. While stimulus measures have fueled initial rebounds, long-term recovery depends on resolving health uncertainties and restarting sectors like education and international travel that remain restricted. Full economic stability may not return until late 2021.
Macroeconomic forecast and monetary policy updateRuslan Sivoplyas
The document provides a macroeconomic forecast and update on monetary policy for Ukraine. It summarizes key indicators for 2018-2021, including real GDP growth of 2.5% in 2019 slowing from 3.3% in 2018 before picking up in future years. Inflation is forecast to remain around the 5% target. Fiscal policy will continue to be restrained with the budget deficit around 1.5% of GDP. The current account deficit is projected to remain in the 3-4% range despite counterbalancing domestic and external factors. Monetary policy has been tight but began easing in 2019 to ensure hitting inflation targets while monetary conditions ease over the forecast horizon.
This document provides a monthly report from the Bank of Japan on recent economic and financial developments in Japan. It summarizes that Japan's economy has stopped weakening and shown some signs of picking up. Exports have stopped decreasing as overseas economies gradually pick up. Domestic demand such as public investment and housing investment are also gradually increasing. The Bank expects Japan's economy to return to a moderate recovery path, led by resilient domestic demand and gradually increasing growth in overseas economies. Financial conditions remain accommodative.
The document summarizes the rising levels of non-performing assets (NPAs) in the Indian banking system since 2011. It notes that NPAs have increased sharply for public sector banks, accounting for over 85% of total NPAs by 2015. The build-up is attributed to an economic slowdown, declining industrial growth, and concentrated exposure to stressed sectors like infrastructure and small and medium enterprises. The document analyzes NPA data in detail and outlines potential measures to reduce NPAs, including more stringent credit appraisal, monitoring of large loans, and utilizing the bankruptcy code.
The document provides an overview of Mongolia's macroeconomic indicators and developments in July 2013. It summarizes that GDP growth slowed to 7.2% in the first quarter due to declining exports and FDI inflows. Inflation decelerated to 8.4% in May after accelerating to double digits in 2012 due to expansionary fiscal policy. The current account deficit remained significant despite slowing imports as fiscal policy continued to be procyclical.
The Chinese currency, the Yuan, reached its lowest level against the dollar in five years in early January 2016 as Chinese policymakers pushed the currency lower through repeated devaluations to boost exports. This weakened the Yuan and fueled concerns about China's economy slowing more quickly than expected. A weaker Yuan could also drive the global economy closer to recession by reducing the purchasing power of the world's second largest economy. Other Asian economies that rely on exports to China may face pressure as their goods become more expensive to Chinese buyers. The devaluation also exacerbated declines in commodity prices and emerging market currencies. Overall the moves suggest China is struggling more than expected to transition from an export-led economy to one driven by domestic consumption and
A piaci konszenzusnál erősebben, az OTP Bank Elemzési Központjának előrejelzésénél gyengébben alakult az első negyedéves GDP. Az adat megerősítette az OTP elemzőinek az idei év egészére vonatkozó 4%-os növekedési várakozását, a kockázatok felfelé mutatnak.
1) Mongolia's economic growth continued to slow in the first quarter of 2015, with industrial production growth falling to 13% from 16% in the previous quarter due to weaker mining and electricity production.
2) The current account balance deteriorated in February and March as export growth declined sharply, while imports continued to drop significantly.
3) Weak revenue performance continued to strain Mongolia's fiscal situation, with budget revenues in the first three months falling short of plans by 7.2% and tighter spending controls being implemented.
This document provides an unofficial translation of Mongolia's Law on Minerals. Some key points:
- It defines terms related to mineral exploration and mining such as prospecting, exploration, mining claims, license types, and deposit classifications.
- It establishes state ownership of mineral resources and the government's powers to regulate the sector and participate in strategic deposits.
- It outlines licensing requirements and procedures, the duties of regulatory agencies, and rules around reserving areas for future exploration or resolving disputes.
- The document aims to regulate mineral exploration and mining in Mongolia, define key concepts, and establish the roles and powers of government agencies in the minerals sector.
The Asia Foundation is helping countries in Asia meet the governance challenges of rapid urbanization through programming focused on equitable access to services, revenue generation, and urban resilience. It works with governments and civil society to improve service delivery, strengthen citizen engagement, increase revenue sources, and enhance disaster preparedness. Key projects include improving access to services in Mongolia, building private sector engagement in disaster risk management in Vietnam, and enhancing governance in various cities through initiatives like public service report cards in India.
This document summarizes the results of an assessment of Mongolia's provider payment systems conducted to inform reforms. It finds that Mongolia currently uses 3 main payment methods - line item budgets, DRG-based payments for hospitals, and fee-for-service. The assessment examined each system's design, incentives, and stakeholders' perceptions. It identified strengths and weaknesses compared to international standards and how each system impacts health policy goals. The assessment concludes with a roadmap to refine Mongolia's systems to better support universal health coverage.
The document announces a series of trade and investment roundtables to be held in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia on August 12th and 13th, 2015 as part of a sister cities delegation visit from Denver, Colorado. Three roundtables will cover opportunities in NGOs, universities, and medicine, urban development and transportation infrastructure projects, and trade and investment from Ulaanbaatar businesses. The roundtables are sponsored by Denver and Ulaanbaatar's sister cities programs and mayor's offices.
Spring session 2015 new laws of mongolia (by lex loci)Serod Ichinkhorloo
This document provides a summary of 13 new laws and amendments to existing laws passed by the Parliament of Mongolia between April and July 2015. It summarizes the key aspects of each new law, including establishing a legal framework for pledging movable property; increasing the VAT threshold and expanding what goods and services are subject to VAT; requiring accounting and financial documents be kept in Mongolian and allowing electronic documents; revising auditing requirements; and providing government support for domestic manufacturing. The document is intended to inform readers of major new legislation in Mongolia but does not constitute legal advice.
This document summarizes the findings of a survey on perceptions and knowledge of corruption in Mongolia conducted in April 2015. Some key findings include:
1) Perceptions that the level of corruption has increased and that efforts to fight corruption are becoming less effective.
2) Political corruption is emerging as a strong concern, with three of the top five most corrupt institutions being political bodies.
3) Introduction of new technologies to reduce corruption is seen as the most important and effective new anti-corruption initiative.
4) Lack of transparency in high levels of government and the merger of business and political interests are seen as leading causes of grand corruption.
The Asia Foundation is helping countries in Asia meet the governance challenges of rapid urbanization through programming focused on equitable access to services, revenue generation, and urban resilience. It works with governments and civil society to improve service delivery, strengthen citizen engagement, increase revenue sources, and enhance disaster preparedness. Key projects include improving access to services in Mongolia, building private sector engagement in disaster risk management in Vietnam, and enhancing governance in various cities through initiatives like public service report cards in India.
This document provides an overview of Mongolia's business environment and regulatory framework according to the World Bank's Doing Business 2015 report. Some key points:
- Mongolia ranked 72nd overall out of 189 economies on the ease of doing business. This was a decline of 2 places compared to the previous year.
- Mongolia scored 65.02 on the distance to frontier measure, which benchmarks economies against global best practices. This was a slight improvement of 0.67 points over the previous year.
- Mongolia performed best in getting credit (25th) and protecting minority investors (39th). It performed worst in paying taxes (157th) and dealing with construction permits (150th).
1. Unemployment in Mongolia increased to 33.9 thousand in April 2015, up 1.2 thousand from the previous year. The labor force participation rate was 61.5% in the first quarter of 2015.
2. Household average monthly income increased to 941.5 thousand tugriks in the first quarter of 2015, up 6.4% from the previous year. However, average monthly expenditures also rose, increasing 9.3% to 963.3 thousand tugriks.
3. Registered crimes in Mongolia rose 14.6% to 10,451 in the first four months of 2015 compared to the same period in the previous year, with increases in several categories of
This document is the embargoed press release for the World Investment Report 2015 from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). It discusses reforming international investment governance. The contents cannot be quoted or summarized before 24 June 2015 at 17:00 GMT. The World Investment Report 2015 examines key challenges in international investment protection and promotion, including the right to regulate, investor-state dispute settlement, and investor responsibility. It also analyzes the fiscal treatment of international investment and proposes options for reforming the international investment treaties regime.
Oyu tolgoi underground mine developing and financing plan may 18.2015Serod Ichinkhorloo
The document outlines a plan for developing and financing the underground mine at the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold project in Mongolia. Key points include:
- The plan was agreed to by the Government of Mongolia, Erdenes Oyu Tolgoi LLC, Turquoise Hill Resources, Rio Tinto, and Oyu Tolgoi LLC.
- It provides estimates of spending within Mongolia over the project lifetime, including on operating costs, underground construction, and payments to the Government. Total estimated domestic Mongolian expenditures are in the billions.
- The plan supports Oyu Tolgoi LLC prioritizing the purchase of Mongolian services, equipment, materials and supplies when available on
- Foreign direct investment into Mongolia has declined sharply since 2011, falling 85% between 2011 and early 2015, largely due to government policy decisions negatively impacting investors and lower global commodity prices.
- In late 2014, a new government took power promising to focus on restoring foreign investment by implementing business-friendly policies and moving forward with two major mining projects.
- In May 2015, the government signed an agreement for the development of the underground phase of the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine, signaling a potential shift toward more supportive policies for foreign investment. However, investors remain cautious and will monitor how new policies are implemented more broadly.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has been Mongolia’s largest multilateral development partner since 1991. ADB has provided Mongolia with $1.6 billion in total resources, including loans, grants, and technical assistance projects. Currently, ADB's portfolio in Mongolia consists of 18 loans worth $544 million, 9 grants worth $129 million, and 30 technical assistance projects worth $25 million. ADB assistance focuses on sectors like transport, water and sanitation, agriculture, and energy to support Mongolia's economic development and diversification.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
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1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
Pensions and housing - Pensions PlayPen - 4 June 2024 v3 (1).pdf
Worldbank report may 2015
1. The Monthly Economic Brief was prepared by the MFM GP Mongolia Team, composed of Taehyun Lee (Senior Country
Economist), Altantsetseg Shiilegmaa (Economist), Davaadalai Batsuuri (Economist), under the guidance of Chorching Goh (Lead
Economist) and Mathew A. Verghis (Practice Manager).
Industrial production data in the first three
months of 2015 indicates that Mongolia’s
growth continues to slow. Industrial production
growth softened to 13% in the first quarter of
2015, from 16% of the previous quarter, on
account of slower growth in mining and
electricity production.
Mining industrial production growth slowed to
14% (y/y) in the first quarter of 2015, down
from 21% of the previous quarter. Copper
concentrate production growth (y/y) in the first
quarter declined to 13% from 26% the previous
quarter, reflecting the waning high growth effect
from the production of OT mine that entered
into the second year of full production. Coal
production increased 16% from a year ago,
signaling the possibility of gradual recovery after
continued contractions in the previous two
quarters. Crude oil production growth also
slowed but maintained a robust 20.3% growth.
Gold production contracted by 10% for the first
three months from the same period the previous
year.
Manufacturing production and sales data in
recent months signal slowing consumption.
Manufacturing production growth picked up to
9% (y/y) in the first three months, from 3%
growth the previous three months. However,
unsold production of manufacturing goods
reached 11.3% of gross manufacturing
production in the first three months, up from 7%
in the previous quarter, indicating that increased
production is absorbed by growing inventories
due to weakening consumption. Production of
electricity and energy grew 6% (y/y), moderately
down from 8% the previous quarter.
National headline inflation slowed to single
digits in 2015, decelerating from 11% (y/y) at
the end of 2014 to 9.3% in March 2015. Overall
food price inflation (UB) declined to 3.7% in
March from 6.9% in December 2014. Core
inflation (UB) still remains in a double digit
territory but also decelerated to 11.9% from
12.6% over the same period.
Mongolia Monthly Economic Brief
May 2015
PublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorizedPublicDisclosureAuthorized
96497
2. Figure 1. Manufacturing production increased in March
but sales remained sluggish.
Figure 2. Mining industrial production slowed in February
and March.
Y/Y growth of manufacturing industrial production (3 month
rolling sum, %)
Y/Y production growth of key commodities (3 month rolling sum, %)
Source: NSO, WB staff estimates
The current account balance deteriorated in
February and March due to weakening export
growth. The current account recorded a surplus
of $117 million in January but deteriorated to a
deficit of $97 million in February and March.
Export growth dropped sharply from 54% in
January to negative 11% in March. Exports of
copper concentrates and crude oil dropped by
8% and 40% (y/y) respectively in March due to
lower prices despite increasing export volumes.
Coal exports continued to drop 23% (y/y) in the
first three months due to declines in export
volume and price. Imports continued to sharply
decline. Total imports (free-on-board term)
dropped 28.5% (y/y) in the first three months,
driven by a 30.8% drop in oil product imports.
Non-oil imports also dropped 29% during the
same period signaling continued weak domestic
demand for consumption and investment.
Figure 3. The current account balance deteriorated in
February and March amidst slowing exports.
Figure 4. Mineral export growth is slowing and imports of
investment and consumption goods continue to drop.
Growth of exports and imports and current account balance Y/Y growth of key export/import goods (3 month rolling sum, %)
Source: BoM, WB staff estimates
Further dampening of FDI strained the balance
of payments in the first three months. FDI
recorded a net outflow of $72 million in the first
quarter, a significant deterioration from a net
inflow of $294 million in the same period a year
ago. In March, FDI slightly recovered to a net
inflow of $5.7 million. Portfolio investment and
loans also displayed a net outflow of $29 million
in the first quarter. A significant net capital
outflow of $320 million was recorded under net
errors and omissions account which is usually
caused by discrepancies across different data
sources. The data discrepancy is expected to be
corrected by a revision of the BoP data. A net
financial inflow of $136 million through currency
and deposit account helped ease the mounting
BoP pressure. As a result, overall balance of
payments deficit reached $271 million in the first
quarter.
Gross international reserves remained stable in
February and March and the currency
depreciation slowed in April. Gross reserves
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Manufacturing production growth (y/y, %): LHS
Electricity production growth (y/y, %): LHS
Sold/gross manufacturing production (%): RHS
-50
-20
10
40
70
100
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Coal
Crude oil
Copper concentrates
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Exports (y/y, %): LHS
Imports (y/y, %): LHS
CA balance (million $, 3 month rolling sum): RHS
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Copper concentrate exports
Coal exports
Oil exports
Investment-related imports
Consumption-related imports
3. sharply dropped by $324 million (19.6%) in
January from the end-2014 level ($1,649 million)
and was maintained at $1,323 million (about 2½
months’ imports of goods and services) in March
as the PBoC bilateral currency swap facility
helped mitigate pressures on gross reserves. The
value of the tugrik depreciated by 5.1% against
the US dollar in Jan-Mar but gradually stabilized
since mid-April, on the back of growing
expectations on early conclusions of large mining
investment projects.
Figure 5. FDI further weakened in Jan-Mar to a net outflow
of $72 million, straining the balance of payments.
Figure 6. Gross FX reserves remained above $1.3 billion in
Feb-Mar and currency depreciation slowed in April.
Net capital flows (in millions of US$, 3 month moving average) Nominal exchange rate and gross FX reserves
Source: BoM, WB staff estimates
Bank asset qualities continued to deteriorate in
Jan-Mar. Outstanding NPLs and past-due loans
have increased by 63% and 108% respectively
over the past twelve months. Deterioration of
asset quality intensified in March. NPLs
increased 9.4% and past-due loans increased
41% in March compared with February. NPL ratio
to bank loans climbed to 3.9% in March, up from
3.1% at the end of 2014 and 2.5% at the end of
2013. Past-due loans ratio also rose to 4.6% of
bank loans in March from 2.5% a year ago.
Credit and liquidity conditions became tighter
in March. Bank credit growth (including
securitized mortgaged loans) continued to
decelerate to 15% (y/y) in March from 20% at the
end of 2014 and 58% in the same month last
year. Slowing credit growth reflects tighter tugrik
liquidity conditions and continued weak foreign
currency loan growth on account of sluggish
domestic currency deposit growth, unwinding of
the Price Stabilization Program, and persistent
wariness over currency depreciation pressure.
Net domestic credit growth also slowed but
maintained robust 27% growth (y/y) in March,
reflecting increasing net credit to the
government and BoM’s liquidity support to the
corporate sector provided via banks in late 2014.
Despite the robust net domestic credit growth,
broad money growth slowed to a negative 0.5%
growth (y/y) in March due to continued large
declines of net foreign assets reflecting
persistent BoP pressure on net international
reserve positions of depository corporations.
Figure 7. NPLs increased 9% and past-due loans increased
41% in Mar from the previous month.
Figure 8. Growth of bank loans and net domestic credit slowed
to 15% and 27% (y/y) respectively in March.
Size and ratio of NPLs and past-due loans (billions of MNT, %) M2 growth contribution (%p, y/y) and bank loan growth (%, y/y)
Source: BoM, WB staff estimates
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Portfolio investment & loans Currency and Deposits
Errors and omissions FDI
Overall BoP balance
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Apr/11
Jul/11
Oct/11
Jan/12
Apr/12
Jul/12
Oct/12
Jan/13
Apr/13
Jul/13
Oct/13
Jan/14
Apr/14
Jul/14
Oct/14
Jan/15
Apr/15
Gross FX reserves (billions of $): LHS
Exchange Rate (MNT/USD): RHS
0
5
10
15
20
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Feb-08
Jul-08
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
May-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
Size of NPLs (billions MNT)
Size of past-due loans (billions MNT)
NPL ratio (incl. failed banks, %): RHS
Past-due loan ratio (incl. failed banks, %): RHS
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Private sector Non-bank financial institutions
Government & public sector Net Foreign Assets
4. The BoM continued to unwind the Price
Stabilization Program (PSP) in March and
strengthened capital requirement of banks in
April. BoM’s credit to the PSP has been gradually
withdrawn since late 2014 as one of the
measures to phase out unconventional policy
lending programs. Outstanding BoM’s credit to
the PSP declined 10% over the first three months
of 2015. A working group was formed to transfer
the PSP to the government by June. Outstanding
loans under the Housing Mortgage Program,
however, grew 8.3% over the first quarter,
reaching MNT 2.2 trillion in March. MNT 1.2
trillion of the mortgages were securitized by
Mongolia Mortgage Corporation (MIK) as of
March and 90% of securitized mortgages were
purchased by the BoM. Plans to phase out and
transfer the mortgage program to the
government are yet to be announced. BoM’s
outstanding credit to banks declined to MNT 1.8
trillion in March from MNT 2.6 trillion at the end
of 2014, reflecting the continued unwinding of
PSP loans and securitizations of mortgage loans.
BoM’s outstanding credit to non-bank sectors
(including MIK), however, increased to MNT 2
trillion in March from MNT 1.7 trillion at the end
of 2014 amidst increasing purchases of
securitized mortgages loans via MIK. On April 1,
the BoM announced to raise the minimum paid-
in capital of banks from MNT 16 billion to MNT
50 billion, from 2016 for systemically important
banks and from 2018 for other banks.
Weak budget revenue performance continued
to strain the fiscal space in March. Budget
revenues increased by 7.9% in Jan-Mar,
compared with the same period the previous
year. Budget revenues of the first three months,
however, fell short of the planned revenue
receipts by 7.2%. The revenue shortfall largely
came from foreign trade taxes (customs duties,
VAT and excise tax on imported goods) and
corporate tax that fell short of the budget plan
by 25.6% and 12.8% respectively. Facing weak
revenue receipts, the MoF has been containing
budget executions through tighter payment
control. Budget spending executions in the first
three months increased by 6.9% from the
previous year but remained at 70% of the
spending plan of the 2015 budget. In particular,
only 29% of the budget’s capital spending plan
was executed, taking the brunt of revenue
shortfalls. Tighter fiscal situation was further
compounded by rising sovereign borrowing
costs amidst tighter liquidity of the banking
system, with one-year government bond yields
hovering over 16% since last September. Despite
the MoF’s hard efforts to contain the spending,
another amendment of the 2015 budget seems
necessary in the coming months to meet the
FSL’s structural deficit ceiling (5% of GDP),
through proper commitment controls of
budgetary projects to avoid possible payment
arrears that have to be eventually paid by the
budget later.
Figure 9. BoM’s credit to banks continued to decline but claims
on non-bank sectors have been growing since late 2014..
Figure 10. Weal budget revenues and tighter bank liquidity
conditions continue to constrain the fiscal space.
Key domestic credit components of BoM’s balance sheet (in
trillions of MNT)
Y/Y growth of budget revenue/spending (year-to-date rolling sum,
%) and one-year government bond yields (%)
Source: BoM, WB staff estimates
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
BoM claims on banks
BoM claims on non-bank FIs
BoM claims on companies
BoM claims on government
8
10
12
14
16
18
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Budet revenues (ytd rolling sum, y/y, %): LHS
Expenditures (ytd rolling sum, y/y, %) excl. DBM: LHS
One-year government bond yields (%): RHS
5. Annual external debt statistics released by the
BoM shows that Mongolia’s external debt rose
10.1% to $20.9 billion at the end of 2014, from
$19 billion in 2013. The external debt of
Mongolia rose to 175% of GDP in 2014, up from
152% in 2013. External debt has increased
steeply over the past four years from 92.5% of
GDP in 2011 amidst growing public external
financing and FDI-related intercompany debts.
Intercompany borrowings of foreign-invested
companies took up 51% of external debt in 2014,
followed by general government debt and
guarantees (24%), private sector debt (18%), and
central bank foreign liabilities (7.5%).
Public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt
continued to increase in 2014. External PPG
debt more than doubled in 2012 due to the
issuance of Chinggis bond ($1.5 billion) and
DBM’s euro bond ($580 million), and further
increased in 2013-14 reflecting growing
government guarantees and BoM’s foreign
liabilities. External PPG debt to GDP ratio
climbed to 54% in 2014, from 21% in 2011 and
43% in 2013. Outstanding government
guarantees almost doubled from $0.7 million in
2013 to $1.3 billion in 2014, due to new
guarantees issued to DBM’s external financing
including samurai bonds (30 billion yens), loans
from Credit Suisse ($300 million) and China
Development Bank ($112 million). BoM’s foreign
liabilities significantly increased in 2013-14, from
$413 million in 2012 to $ 1,567 million in 2014.
Private external debt also steeply grew over the
last two years. Private external debt excluding
intercompany lending rose from 19.1% of GDP in
2012, to 25.7% in 2013 and 31.7% of GDP in
2014. Banks’ external debt rose 52% and non-
bank private sector debt rose 71% over the last
two years reflecting increasing loans and bond
issuances of major banks and companies.
Intercompany lending – which accounted for
56% of external debt increase in 2011-13 in
tandem with large FDI inflow – increased only by
$273 million in 2014, a sharp slowdown from
$1.9 billion increase in 2013, amidst declining FDI
inflow.
Short-term external debt markedly increased in
both public and private sectors in 2013-14.
Short-term external debt reached $2.4 billion
(19.8% of GDP) in 2014, up by 163% from $902
million (7.3% of GDP) in 2012. BoM’s short-term
foreign liabilities sharply increased over the last
two years, from $336 million in 2012 to $1,497
million in 2014 reflecting increasing drawings on
a bilateral swap line between the central banks
of Mongolia and China. Private sector’s short-
term external debt increased 44% to US$ 877
million in 2014 from $605 million the previous
year. Short-term debt accounted for 23% of
private sector’s external debt in 2014. Reflecting
the increasing short-term debt and weakening
FX reserves, short-term debt to reserve ratio
deteriorated to 144% in 2014 from 71% in 2013.
Figure 11. External debt climbed to 175% of GDP in 2014
driven by rising PPG debt and private external debt.
Figure 12. ST external debt has been rapidly increasing in
2013-14.
External debt by holders (in percent to GDP, %) ST external debt by holders (billions of US$)
Source: External Debt Position 2014 (BoM), 2015 Budget (MoF), WB staff estimates
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PPG
Private
Intercompany lending
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
billion$
Private sector ST debt
BoM's ST foreign liabilities
ST debt to GDP (%): RHS
ST debt/gross FX reserves (%): RHS