The CBN has come out with a rash of new regulations to defend the naira, the latest being the suspension of dollar cash deposits into domiciliary accounts in Nigeria. The naira has swung like a pendulum in the parallel market between N208 and N245. Most investors are deferring any decisions until there is some clarity, as to the Buhari economic direction.
Federal and state government officials have cut back on international travels and reckless expenditure, which has resulted in airline summer load factors dropping to 65%. Power supply from the grid is up at 4,800MW while airport immigration and customs officers are behaving themselves professionally.
In the meantime there has been a sharp lull in economic activity with retail sales of garments and electronics down to 30%. There is also the problem of 55% of flats in Lekki being vacant and rents likely to fall.
The impact of the uncertainty and slowdown on investment, output and profit margins is discussed in this edition of the August LBS Executive Breakfast session with B.J. Rewane and the FDC team.
Enjoy your read....
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic conditions in March 2016. Key points include:
- Nigeria's economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter and is expected to grow only 2% in Q1 2016.
- Inflation spiked to a 34-month high of 11.4% due to forex shortages and fuel scarcity.
- Unemployment and underemployment rose sharply, especially among youth.
- The stock market and FAAC allocations declined while the "misery index" measuring inflation and unemployment increased.
- Regional and global factors like lower Chinese and commodity prices pose challenges for Nigeria's economic outlook.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. It notes that June saw signs of economic inflection in Nigeria, including the disappearance of fuel queues, a rise in the oil price, and monetary policy reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria. However, GDP growth is still estimated to be negative for the full year. The outlook is positive but painful as Nigeria stumbles into economic reforms, with the exchange rate expected to find a new equilibrium around N295-N310 per dollar. Winners in the stock market will be companies able to source raw materials internationally and leverage parent companies.
- Major global equity indices rose this week supported by strong US economic data and signs of continued easy monetary policy. Bond markets saw some volatility due to debate around tapering of US quantitative easing and increased risk appetite. Commodity prices were mixed.
- In Asia, Japanese stocks advanced on a weak yen, positive earnings, and strong economic growth in Q1. Chinese stocks also rose despite below-forecast economic data. Indian equities extended gains on expectations of monetary easing and positive global sentiment.
- European stocks gained led by automotive shares, despite weak macro data including Eurozone GDP contraction. Central banks in Israel, Turkey, and Europe took various monetary actions. The US saw upbeat data and equities at
This document provides a monthly economic report and analysis for Nigeria in November 2015. It summarizes key economic indicators and developments in Nigeria and globally. Some of the main points include:
- Nigeria's GDP contracted for the third consecutive quarter, growing at an estimated 2% in Q3.
- Inflation rose to 9.4% in September and is expected to increase further. External reserves declined slightly.
- The Central Bank imposed new rules for bank verification numbers that caused turmoil in the foreign exchange market and sent the naira lower.
- Oil production increased marginally but remained below budget benchmarks, reducing government revenues shared between federal, state, and local governments.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2014WB_Research
The document is a report from the World Bank that provides projections for the global economy. It forecasts that global GDP growth will increase from 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2014, and then stabilize at 3.4-3.5% in 2015-2016. Growth is expected to be led by high-income countries as their recoveries continue. Developing country growth will also increase but at a slower pace than previously expected, reaching 5.3% in 2014, 5.5% in 2015, and 5.7% in 2016. Acceleration will be limited in regions that have already fully recovered. Capital flows to developing countries are projected to decline only marginally from 4.6% to 4.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
The document provides an economic analysis and outlook for Nigeria and the global economy in May 2016. Some key points:
- Nigeria's GDP declined to 1.9% in Q1 2016 due to poor power supply and low oil production. Inflation spiked to 13.2% due to higher food and fuel prices. Unemployment is expected to increase to 30%.
- Globally, the IMF lowered its 2016 growth forecast to 3.2% due to weak conditions. The US saw slow growth of 0.5% in Q1. China's growth slowed slightly but remained within target at 6.7%. Sub-Saharan Africa growth is forecast at 3.3%.
- Domestically
Zimbabwe Post Election Synopsis: Investment ClimateAlbert Norumedzo
The document provides an analysis of the Zimbabwean economy and stock market in 2013 and an outlook for 2014. It finds that while the economy grew at an average of 6.68% over the past five years, growth slowed to 4.4% in 2012 and is projected to be 3.4% in 2013 due to challenges in key sectors like agriculture and mining. Inflation has remained low at about 3%. The stock market gained 38.6% in the first half of 2013 but declined in the aftermath of elections amid political uncertainty, though macroeconomic fundamentals were unchanged. The outlook expects stable growth with a stable government and forecasts the stock market will reach a capitalization of $6.2 billion by 2014.
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic conditions in March 2016. Key points include:
- Nigeria's economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter and is expected to grow only 2% in Q1 2016.
- Inflation spiked to a 34-month high of 11.4% due to forex shortages and fuel scarcity.
- Unemployment and underemployment rose sharply, especially among youth.
- The stock market and FAAC allocations declined while the "misery index" measuring inflation and unemployment increased.
- Regional and global factors like lower Chinese and commodity prices pose challenges for Nigeria's economic outlook.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. It notes that June saw signs of economic inflection in Nigeria, including the disappearance of fuel queues, a rise in the oil price, and monetary policy reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria. However, GDP growth is still estimated to be negative for the full year. The outlook is positive but painful as Nigeria stumbles into economic reforms, with the exchange rate expected to find a new equilibrium around N295-N310 per dollar. Winners in the stock market will be companies able to source raw materials internationally and leverage parent companies.
- Major global equity indices rose this week supported by strong US economic data and signs of continued easy monetary policy. Bond markets saw some volatility due to debate around tapering of US quantitative easing and increased risk appetite. Commodity prices were mixed.
- In Asia, Japanese stocks advanced on a weak yen, positive earnings, and strong economic growth in Q1. Chinese stocks also rose despite below-forecast economic data. Indian equities extended gains on expectations of monetary easing and positive global sentiment.
- European stocks gained led by automotive shares, despite weak macro data including Eurozone GDP contraction. Central banks in Israel, Turkey, and Europe took various monetary actions. The US saw upbeat data and equities at
This document provides a monthly economic report and analysis for Nigeria in November 2015. It summarizes key economic indicators and developments in Nigeria and globally. Some of the main points include:
- Nigeria's GDP contracted for the third consecutive quarter, growing at an estimated 2% in Q3.
- Inflation rose to 9.4% in September and is expected to increase further. External reserves declined slightly.
- The Central Bank imposed new rules for bank verification numbers that caused turmoil in the foreign exchange market and sent the naira lower.
- Oil production increased marginally but remained below budget benchmarks, reducing government revenues shared between federal, state, and local governments.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2014WB_Research
The document is a report from the World Bank that provides projections for the global economy. It forecasts that global GDP growth will increase from 2.4% in 2013 to 3.2% in 2014, and then stabilize at 3.4-3.5% in 2015-2016. Growth is expected to be led by high-income countries as their recoveries continue. Developing country growth will also increase but at a slower pace than previously expected, reaching 5.3% in 2014, 5.5% in 2015, and 5.7% in 2016. Acceleration will be limited in regions that have already fully recovered. Capital flows to developing countries are projected to decline only marginally from 4.6% to 4.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
The document provides an economic analysis and outlook for Nigeria and the global economy in May 2016. Some key points:
- Nigeria's GDP declined to 1.9% in Q1 2016 due to poor power supply and low oil production. Inflation spiked to 13.2% due to higher food and fuel prices. Unemployment is expected to increase to 30%.
- Globally, the IMF lowered its 2016 growth forecast to 3.2% due to weak conditions. The US saw slow growth of 0.5% in Q1. China's growth slowed slightly but remained within target at 6.7%. Sub-Saharan Africa growth is forecast at 3.3%.
- Domestically
Zimbabwe Post Election Synopsis: Investment ClimateAlbert Norumedzo
The document provides an analysis of the Zimbabwean economy and stock market in 2013 and an outlook for 2014. It finds that while the economy grew at an average of 6.68% over the past five years, growth slowed to 4.4% in 2012 and is projected to be 3.4% in 2013 due to challenges in key sectors like agriculture and mining. Inflation has remained low at about 3%. The stock market gained 38.6% in the first half of 2013 but declined in the aftermath of elections amid political uncertainty, though macroeconomic fundamentals were unchanged. The outlook expects stable growth with a stable government and forecasts the stock market will reach a capitalization of $6.2 billion by 2014.
Judged against the post-election feeling of enthusiasm and exhilaration on May 29, the current underwhelming feeling of the Nigerian elite appears bizarre and contradictory. Why are they feeling so despondent and anxious? Is this the natural sequence that follows long waiting periods and anticipation??
In spite of this crisis of false expectations, the macro-economic scorecard reveals a balanced performance with major successes in power supply, petrol queues, restructuring of the oil sector and restoring the international reputation and pride of Nigeria. The salary arrears and contractor debts have been regularised and leakages are being blocked. The building blocks are being laid slowly. The truth is that it is taking too long.
The administration has not come out with a clear economic policy or blueprint. This macro-economic ambiguity is borne out of the sheer gravity of the problems and the dilemma that the possible options throw up. The recent plunge in oil prices in August is aggravating a difficult situation.
The impact of this policy void is increasing the tentativeness of investors and is being exacerbated by the rash of administrative measures. The volatility in the Forex and interest rate markets is evidence of consumer and investor anxiety. A cabinet is likely to be announced in a few days and will douse most of these fears.
These are some of the burning questions addressed by Bismarck Rewane and his team of analysts, in this edition of the LBS breakfast session.
The article discusses the Eurozone economy and prospects for escaping a repetitive cycle of weak growth. While consumption and exports are expected to increase slowly in 2015, corporate investment is a key area to monitor as weak investment has limited short-term growth and long-term economic potential. Surveys indicate investment may revive in 2015, though credit availability is not the constraint - companies have ample cash. Structural reforms are still needed to achieve sustained growth.
This report draws on over 10,000 interviews with business leaders as well as economic forecast data to better understand the growth opportunities and challenges facing dynamic companies over the next 12 months.
1) The global economy is experiencing slower growth as potential growth rates decline around the world due to factors like aging populations and slowing productivity.
2) Political risks are rising as major countries like the US, Europe, and China hold elections, which could undermine investor risk appetite.
3) Monetary policy alone cannot boost growth significantly and fiscal policy is needed, but the transition to more active fiscal policy carries risks of overheating economies.
4) Developed markets are expected to see slightly faster growth and higher rates in 2017, while the US is likely to pursue an "America First" agenda under a Republican government.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in October 2015. It discusses key economic indicators such as GDP growth estimates of 2.5% for Q3, a rise in power supply to 4,500MW, stable government revenue of N442.6 billion, inflation increasing to 9.3%, and lower interest rates following a reduction in the cash reserve ratio. It also summarizes global and commodity market conditions, and their impact on the domestic economy. Overall, the outlook expects inflation to rise further to 9.4% in September and interest rates to remain below 10%.
This document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It summarizes that India's GDP growth slowed to a 10-year low of 4.5% in the third quarter due to declines in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Inflation rates have been falling but remain elevated. The RBI recently cut interest rates and expects further monetary easing this fiscal year alongside reforms to revive investment and growth. Equity markets have performed well recently and earnings are expected to grow 12% this year led by private banks, healthcare and consumer companies. The outlook provides sector views, favoring healthcare, banking, and FMCG.
2010: Coping with the Crisis and Future Challengeseconsultbw
The Botswana economy experienced a severe recession in 2009, with annual growth at -6%. This was highly dependent on mining, which contracted massively. However, the non-mining private sector grew due to government spending stimulus, which helped maintain employment but resulted in large fiscal deficits of around 15% of GDP. Inflation declined substantially and interest rates were cut sharply. While the financial sector remained stable, bank credit growth is recovering after slowing. The economy is projected to recover in 2010-2011, driven by mining, but fiscal sustainability is a major challenge due to the large deficits accumulated during the crisis.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis across various sectors in India. It discusses that the RBI kept interest rates unchanged in its recent monetary policy review due to ongoing uncertainties around inflation. While inflation is falling, risks remain from the monsoon season, upcoming general elections, and US Fed tapering. The equity outlook remains positive with expectations of strong corporate earnings growth. Key sectors that are expected to perform well include banking, infrastructure, IT, and pharma. Overall, the analysis maintains a bullish stance on the Indian equity market.
The new government needs to
- The global investment climate became moderately positive in February, with the outlook on India improving considerably due to deteriorating fundamentals in other emerging markets.
restart the programme in a big way
- Quarterly company results surprised positively against the deteriorating macro scenario. It remains to be seen if this marks a turnaround or short-term improvements.
to meet its fiscal deficit targets and
- Going into March, equities may rally on expectations of a pro-reform government after elections. However, the market will be highly sensitive to the
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for India. It discusses recent economic data and performance across various sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- GDP growth improved slightly to 4.8% in Q2 FY14 but remains below 5%. Services sector growth is slowing.
- Inflation remains elevated with WPI at 7.52% and CPI at 11.24% in Nov 2013. Food inflation is a major contributor.
- RBI kept policy rates unchanged in its recent meeting despite higher inflation, expecting food prices to decline. Rate hikes may resume in H1 2014.
- Global growth outlook remains positive which will support equity markets. Recovery is strengthening in the
The document discusses global imbalances in current accounts across countries. It shows that the US has the largest deficit while China, emerging Asia, Japan, and oil exporters have large surpluses. Key reasons for the US deficit include low interest rates, overconsumption, and tax cuts. Global imbalances are undesirable as they can destabilize the global financial system if the US deficit is viewed as unsustainable. The document recommends various macroeconomic and international policy options to reduce imbalances, including increasing US exports, promoting savings, and allowing more exchange rate flexibility.
The document provides an economic outlook and summary of key markets for May 2014. It discusses expectations for the upcoming general election in India and implications for various asset classes. The equity outlook remains positive on expectations that a reform-oriented government will accelerate the economy and revive the growth and earnings cycle. The document recommends overweight positions in healthcare, IT/ITES, banking, energy, and neutral stances on power utilities and automobiles.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for various markets including equity, debt, commodities, real estate, and forex. It discusses recent inflation and growth trends in India and globally. Recommendations are given to overweight sectors like healthcare, telecom and IT while remaining neutral or underweight on others given the domestic and international economic environment.
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic challenges in 2016 and provides an outlook for 2017. Some key points:
- 2016 was a difficult year for Nigeria with negative GDP growth, high inflation, currency depreciation and other issues.
- 2017 may see a slow and uneven recovery if oil prices remain around $55 per barrel, allowing GDP growth of around 1%. High inflation and exchange rate volatility are still risks.
- The recovery path will be treacherous, with scenarios ranging from a fast V-shaped rebound to a continued recession depending on factors like oil prices, the Niger Delta situation, and monetary/fiscal policies.
- Events to watch that could influence the economy in 2017 include oil price
The document provides an economic and market update for November 2013. It discusses positive performance in global equity markets and stability in the Indian rupee and debt markets in October. The Chief Investment Officer notes that while markets have reached new highs, fundamentals are also improving as earnings growth is catching up to price increases. Some market optimism also reflects speculation around the next elections in India. Overall the outlook is cautiously positive but volatility could increase from unexpected events.
World Economic and Financial Surveys - Regional Economic Outlook - Western He...FGV Brazil
World Economic and Financial Surveys - Regional Economic Outlook - Western Hemisphere
The report, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), presented at FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) in October 2015.
SunTrust Chief Economist Gregory Miller Briefs Chamber Members on Economic Trends
Gregory Miller, chief economist at SunTrust Bank, gave the keynote address at the 2015 Economic Outlook Briefing presented by Town of Chapel Hill Economic Development, describing trends and the latest economic issues facing the nation and the region.
As SunTrust’s chief economist, Gregory Miller analyzes the U.S. and global economies and forecasts the U.S. national economy. He advises corporate and bank boards of directors, as well as making frequent presentations to SunTrust business and wealth management clients. He sits on committees charged with interest rate setting, corporate investment, and benefits policy. He is a policy advisor for Private Wealth and Corporate Investment Banking groups.
Mr. Miller comments frequently in business media, including CNBC News, Bloomberg News, Fox Business, Reuters, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Blue Chip Financial Forecast, and other local news media platforms.
In addition to Miller’s economic forecast, Chamber President & CEO Aaron Nelson presented the results of the Chamber’s annual Economic Conditions Survey, an online survey that gauges our community’s thoughts on the current economy based on Chamber member response.
For more information, visit carolinachamber.org or contact Kristen Smith at (919) 357-9988.
###
The Chapel Hill-Carrboro (NC) Chamber of Commerce is a business leadership organization serving the greater Chapel Hill, NC community. The Chamber serves and supports the business interests of its more than 1,200 members and helps create a sustainable community where they can thrive. Chamber members employ more than 80,000 in the Research Triangle region.
A more simplified and reader-friendly version of P.K Basu's - India Economic Outlook - 2014. It deduces from past trends and outlines the current economic scenario around the world and its implications on the Indian economy.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was 4.8% in the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.7% but below the previous year's 6.2%. Industrial production growth slowed to 2% in April 2013. While inflation tapered to 4.7% due to fuel prices, food inflation increased to 7.64% due to higher vegetable prices. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged and will focus on inflation and the current account deficit over growth. Bank credit growth was lower and the rupee depreciated due to reversal of foreign institutional investment inflows.
The document discusses rising vacancy rates and rents in the Lagos real estate market from January 2015 to March 2016. Some key points:
- The Vacancy Factor Index (VFIX) measuring vacancy rates in Ikoyi, Victoria Island, and Lekki neighborhoods increased 65% over 15 months, indicating vacant properties rose significantly.
- In March 2016, the residential and commercial sub-indexes of the VFIX were 177 and 148 respectively, increases of 77% and 48% from January 2015 levels.
- Rents remain high despite a large supply glut, potentially due to money laundering, corruption, and developers relying on family savings, pensions, and illicit income for funding.
- There is
La ciudad jardín es un modelo de planificación urbana que surgió a finales del siglo XIX como alternativa a las ciudades industriales densas y congestionadas. Se caracteriza por zonas residenciales con casas unifamiliares rodeadas de amplias zonas verdes, y con servicios y lugares de trabajo separados pero accesibles. El objetivo es proporcionar a los residentes una vida saludable y armoniosa con la naturaleza en entornos residenciales de baja densidad.
This short document promotes the creation of presentations using Haiku Deck, an online presentation tool. It includes two stock photos and text prompting the reader to get started creating their own Haiku Deck presentation to share on SlideShare.
Judged against the post-election feeling of enthusiasm and exhilaration on May 29, the current underwhelming feeling of the Nigerian elite appears bizarre and contradictory. Why are they feeling so despondent and anxious? Is this the natural sequence that follows long waiting periods and anticipation??
In spite of this crisis of false expectations, the macro-economic scorecard reveals a balanced performance with major successes in power supply, petrol queues, restructuring of the oil sector and restoring the international reputation and pride of Nigeria. The salary arrears and contractor debts have been regularised and leakages are being blocked. The building blocks are being laid slowly. The truth is that it is taking too long.
The administration has not come out with a clear economic policy or blueprint. This macro-economic ambiguity is borne out of the sheer gravity of the problems and the dilemma that the possible options throw up. The recent plunge in oil prices in August is aggravating a difficult situation.
The impact of this policy void is increasing the tentativeness of investors and is being exacerbated by the rash of administrative measures. The volatility in the Forex and interest rate markets is evidence of consumer and investor anxiety. A cabinet is likely to be announced in a few days and will douse most of these fears.
These are some of the burning questions addressed by Bismarck Rewane and his team of analysts, in this edition of the LBS breakfast session.
The article discusses the Eurozone economy and prospects for escaping a repetitive cycle of weak growth. While consumption and exports are expected to increase slowly in 2015, corporate investment is a key area to monitor as weak investment has limited short-term growth and long-term economic potential. Surveys indicate investment may revive in 2015, though credit availability is not the constraint - companies have ample cash. Structural reforms are still needed to achieve sustained growth.
This report draws on over 10,000 interviews with business leaders as well as economic forecast data to better understand the growth opportunities and challenges facing dynamic companies over the next 12 months.
1) The global economy is experiencing slower growth as potential growth rates decline around the world due to factors like aging populations and slowing productivity.
2) Political risks are rising as major countries like the US, Europe, and China hold elections, which could undermine investor risk appetite.
3) Monetary policy alone cannot boost growth significantly and fiscal policy is needed, but the transition to more active fiscal policy carries risks of overheating economies.
4) Developed markets are expected to see slightly faster growth and higher rates in 2017, while the US is likely to pursue an "America First" agenda under a Republican government.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in October 2015. It discusses key economic indicators such as GDP growth estimates of 2.5% for Q3, a rise in power supply to 4,500MW, stable government revenue of N442.6 billion, inflation increasing to 9.3%, and lower interest rates following a reduction in the cash reserve ratio. It also summarizes global and commodity market conditions, and their impact on the domestic economy. Overall, the outlook expects inflation to rise further to 9.4% in September and interest rates to remain below 10%.
This document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It summarizes that India's GDP growth slowed to a 10-year low of 4.5% in the third quarter due to declines in agriculture, mining, and manufacturing. Inflation rates have been falling but remain elevated. The RBI recently cut interest rates and expects further monetary easing this fiscal year alongside reforms to revive investment and growth. Equity markets have performed well recently and earnings are expected to grow 12% this year led by private banks, healthcare and consumer companies. The outlook provides sector views, favoring healthcare, banking, and FMCG.
2010: Coping with the Crisis and Future Challengeseconsultbw
The Botswana economy experienced a severe recession in 2009, with annual growth at -6%. This was highly dependent on mining, which contracted massively. However, the non-mining private sector grew due to government spending stimulus, which helped maintain employment but resulted in large fiscal deficits of around 15% of GDP. Inflation declined substantially and interest rates were cut sharply. While the financial sector remained stable, bank credit growth is recovering after slowing. The economy is projected to recover in 2010-2011, driven by mining, but fiscal sustainability is a major challenge due to the large deficits accumulated during the crisis.
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis across various sectors in India. It discusses that the RBI kept interest rates unchanged in its recent monetary policy review due to ongoing uncertainties around inflation. While inflation is falling, risks remain from the monsoon season, upcoming general elections, and US Fed tapering. The equity outlook remains positive with expectations of strong corporate earnings growth. Key sectors that are expected to perform well include banking, infrastructure, IT, and pharma. Overall, the analysis maintains a bullish stance on the Indian equity market.
The new government needs to
- The global investment climate became moderately positive in February, with the outlook on India improving considerably due to deteriorating fundamentals in other emerging markets.
restart the programme in a big way
- Quarterly company results surprised positively against the deteriorating macro scenario. It remains to be seen if this marks a turnaround or short-term improvements.
to meet its fiscal deficit targets and
- Going into March, equities may rally on expectations of a pro-reform government after elections. However, the market will be highly sensitive to the
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis for India. It discusses recent economic data and performance across various sectors in India and globally. Some key points:
- GDP growth improved slightly to 4.8% in Q2 FY14 but remains below 5%. Services sector growth is slowing.
- Inflation remains elevated with WPI at 7.52% and CPI at 11.24% in Nov 2013. Food inflation is a major contributor.
- RBI kept policy rates unchanged in its recent meeting despite higher inflation, expecting food prices to decline. Rate hikes may resume in H1 2014.
- Global growth outlook remains positive which will support equity markets. Recovery is strengthening in the
The document discusses global imbalances in current accounts across countries. It shows that the US has the largest deficit while China, emerging Asia, Japan, and oil exporters have large surpluses. Key reasons for the US deficit include low interest rates, overconsumption, and tax cuts. Global imbalances are undesirable as they can destabilize the global financial system if the US deficit is viewed as unsustainable. The document recommends various macroeconomic and international policy options to reduce imbalances, including increasing US exports, promoting savings, and allowing more exchange rate flexibility.
The document provides an economic outlook and summary of key markets for May 2014. It discusses expectations for the upcoming general election in India and implications for various asset classes. The equity outlook remains positive on expectations that a reform-oriented government will accelerate the economy and revive the growth and earnings cycle. The document recommends overweight positions in healthcare, IT/ITES, banking, energy, and neutral stances on power utilities and automobiles.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for various markets including equity, debt, commodities, real estate, and forex. It discusses recent inflation and growth trends in India and globally. Recommendations are given to overweight sectors like healthcare, telecom and IT while remaining neutral or underweight on others given the domestic and international economic environment.
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic challenges in 2016 and provides an outlook for 2017. Some key points:
- 2016 was a difficult year for Nigeria with negative GDP growth, high inflation, currency depreciation and other issues.
- 2017 may see a slow and uneven recovery if oil prices remain around $55 per barrel, allowing GDP growth of around 1%. High inflation and exchange rate volatility are still risks.
- The recovery path will be treacherous, with scenarios ranging from a fast V-shaped rebound to a continued recession depending on factors like oil prices, the Niger Delta situation, and monetary/fiscal policies.
- Events to watch that could influence the economy in 2017 include oil price
The document provides an economic and market update for November 2013. It discusses positive performance in global equity markets and stability in the Indian rupee and debt markets in October. The Chief Investment Officer notes that while markets have reached new highs, fundamentals are also improving as earnings growth is catching up to price increases. Some market optimism also reflects speculation around the next elections in India. Overall the outlook is cautiously positive but volatility could increase from unexpected events.
World Economic and Financial Surveys - Regional Economic Outlook - Western He...FGV Brazil
World Economic and Financial Surveys - Regional Economic Outlook - Western Hemisphere
The report, prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), presented at FGV’s Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) in October 2015.
SunTrust Chief Economist Gregory Miller Briefs Chamber Members on Economic Trends
Gregory Miller, chief economist at SunTrust Bank, gave the keynote address at the 2015 Economic Outlook Briefing presented by Town of Chapel Hill Economic Development, describing trends and the latest economic issues facing the nation and the region.
As SunTrust’s chief economist, Gregory Miller analyzes the U.S. and global economies and forecasts the U.S. national economy. He advises corporate and bank boards of directors, as well as making frequent presentations to SunTrust business and wealth management clients. He sits on committees charged with interest rate setting, corporate investment, and benefits policy. He is a policy advisor for Private Wealth and Corporate Investment Banking groups.
Mr. Miller comments frequently in business media, including CNBC News, Bloomberg News, Fox Business, Reuters, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Blue Chip Financial Forecast, and other local news media platforms.
In addition to Miller’s economic forecast, Chamber President & CEO Aaron Nelson presented the results of the Chamber’s annual Economic Conditions Survey, an online survey that gauges our community’s thoughts on the current economy based on Chamber member response.
For more information, visit carolinachamber.org or contact Kristen Smith at (919) 357-9988.
###
The Chapel Hill-Carrboro (NC) Chamber of Commerce is a business leadership organization serving the greater Chapel Hill, NC community. The Chamber serves and supports the business interests of its more than 1,200 members and helps create a sustainable community where they can thrive. Chamber members employ more than 80,000 in the Research Triangle region.
A more simplified and reader-friendly version of P.K Basu's - India Economic Outlook - 2014. It deduces from past trends and outlines the current economic scenario around the world and its implications on the Indian economy.
The document provides an economic update and outlook for India. It notes that India's GDP growth was 4.8% in the last quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter's 4.7% but below the previous year's 6.2%. Industrial production growth slowed to 2% in April 2013. While inflation tapered to 4.7% due to fuel prices, food inflation increased to 7.64% due to higher vegetable prices. The RBI kept interest rates unchanged and will focus on inflation and the current account deficit over growth. Bank credit growth was lower and the rupee depreciated due to reversal of foreign institutional investment inflows.
The document discusses rising vacancy rates and rents in the Lagos real estate market from January 2015 to March 2016. Some key points:
- The Vacancy Factor Index (VFIX) measuring vacancy rates in Ikoyi, Victoria Island, and Lekki neighborhoods increased 65% over 15 months, indicating vacant properties rose significantly.
- In March 2016, the residential and commercial sub-indexes of the VFIX were 177 and 148 respectively, increases of 77% and 48% from January 2015 levels.
- Rents remain high despite a large supply glut, potentially due to money laundering, corruption, and developers relying on family savings, pensions, and illicit income for funding.
- There is
La ciudad jardín es un modelo de planificación urbana que surgió a finales del siglo XIX como alternativa a las ciudades industriales densas y congestionadas. Se caracteriza por zonas residenciales con casas unifamiliares rodeadas de amplias zonas verdes, y con servicios y lugares de trabajo separados pero accesibles. El objetivo es proporcionar a los residentes una vida saludable y armoniosa con la naturaleza en entornos residenciales de baja densidad.
This short document promotes the creation of presentations using Haiku Deck, an online presentation tool. It includes two stock photos and text prompting the reader to get started creating their own Haiku Deck presentation to share on SlideShare.
Brothers and Sisters,
Here are the 10 Commandments for Public Servants to Guide our Candidates, the Voters as well as our Government Officials in our Day to Day Existence.
From the Heart,
Fr. Heart, SVD
The document discusses lessons that can be learned from roller derby and applied to agile practices. It notes some key aspects of roller derby like retrospectives, sprint planning, and protection/prevention strategies. It also highlights the importance of having fun and shows some humorous roller derby team names. The document suggests roller derby can provide insights into hybrid agile approaches and team dynamics.
Este documento discute los desafíos del sistema educativo argentino, incluyendo la resistencia de los docentes a las nuevas tecnologías, el enfoque tradicional y pasivo de los estudiantes, y la falta de pensamiento crítico. También analiza las dimensiones evidentes e intangibles de estos problemas, como el deseo de los docentes de mantener el poder en el aula y depender de estructuras rígidas. Finalmente, enfatiza la importancia de cambiar esta realidad a través del diálogo y la colaboración.
Baskar seeks a challenging position that utilizes his skills and expands his knowledge. He has over 5 years of experience in facility management, maintaining generators, transformers, breakers, water and sewage treatment plants. He has managed the maintenance of large properties with over 1000 residents. Baskar has a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering and has received training in building management systems, HVAC systems, conductors, and basic management principles from Cushman & Wakefield. He enjoys interacting with clients, preparing reports, and coordinating vendors and teams.
The document discusses color and contains exercises and facts about color. It includes two exercises where the reader reads out either the words of different colors or says the colors themselves from lists provided. It aims to show how reading the colors directly is harder than reading the word names. The document also provides several facts about colors including that blue is the most popular color, yellow and orange can make you hungry, and our eyes can distinguish millions of colors. It closes by asking if the reader has any questions.
The document discusses various preparation techniques for painting and decorating surfaces, including removing rust, sanding surfaces, treating friable and moldy materials, and repairing defects. It provides guidance on using hand tools and power tools to scrape and remove rust, describes different types of abrasives for sanding, and explains why surfaces need to be treated before painting.
Complexity of organizational design and its effect scaling agilityAlexey Krivitsky
This document discusses the complexity of large organizations and its effect on scaling agility. As organizations grow, they typically add more roles, meetings, documentation and managers, which increases indirection and coordination needs. This added complexity can lead to uneven workloads, out-of-sync development, and a focus on process over work. The document proposes organizing for value delivery through high alignment, clear constraints and high autonomy as a way to reduce complexity and improve agility at scale. It provides examples of structuring products and teams to optimize for customer value.
- Managing health and safety on construction sites is the responsibility of the site manager, but everyone must work safely and report unsafe conditions. Various measures are used to reinforce health and safety, including site inductions, toolbox talks, risk assessments, and method statements.
- A site induction must be attended when starting work on site and covers the health and safety rules. Risk assessments must be completed for all work activities and result in method statements that show how to do the job safely. Permits to work are also used for certain jobs and must be followed.
- Basic safety tips include keeping work areas clean and tidy, wearing appropriate PPE, disposing of rubbish properly, and reporting accidents, incidents and near misses. Children
Este documento presenta una rúbrica de valoración entre compañeros para evaluar el desempeño en grupo. La rúbrica incluye cuatro categorías (actitud, aportación, ritmo de trabajo, resolución de conflictos) con criterios de evaluación en una escala de 1 a 4 puntos, y un peso porcentual para cada categoría. Al final se incluye un espacio para que los miembros del grupo califiquen anonimamente a cada compañero y se calcule la puntuación total.
Using the power of storytelling to create an emotional connection to your audience when presenting ideas and businesses. Used in a storytelling masterclass held August 2015 for the finalist entrepreneurs at INDEX AWARD — Design to improve life.
Learn Spanish with Fresh Spanish: Contraste de pasadosFresh Spanish
El documento contrasta el pretérito imperfecto y el pretérito indefinido. Explica que el imperfecto se usa para acciones no terminadas en el pasado, mientras que el indefinido se usa para acciones terminadas. Luego, presenta ejemplos de diálogos y oraciones para practicar la distinción entre los dos tiempos verbales pasados.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. Some key points:
- Expectations of economic recovery were dashed as the naira fell sharply, growth estimates declined, and power output remained low.
- Inflation jumped to 16.5% while business activity showed only marginal signs of recovery. Oil prices declined further, hurting government revenues.
- Global factors like slower growth in China, lower commodity prices, and cautious monetary policies in developed countries pose risks for Nigeria's economy.
- Domestic challenges include high inflation, fuel scarcity and price increases, and weak manufacturing activity, though some indicators showed slight improvements. The outlook remains uncertain.
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic conditions in March 2016. Key points include:
- Nigeria's economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter and is expected to grow only 2% in Q1 2016.
- Inflation spiked to a 34-month high of 11.4% due to forex shortages and fuel scarcity.
- Unemployment and underemployment rose sharply, especially among youth.
- The stock market and FAAC allocations declined while the "misery index" measuring inflation and unemployment increased.
- Regional and global factors like lower Chinese and commodity prices pose challenges for Nigeria's economic outlook.
The document summarizes the Indian market and economic outlook for April 2013. It finds that while wholesale inflation has decreased, consumer inflation remains in the double digits. Industrial production saw growth in January but no sustained recovery. The RBI recently cut rates but signaled it may pause further cuts due to high consumer inflation and the current account deficit. Internationally, a tapering of US quantitative easing may affect liquidity flows to emerging markets like India. The strength of India's ruling coalition has also been reduced, which could make economic reforms more difficult.
This document provides a summary of Nigeria's macroeconomic updates for 2013. It discusses topics such as the global economy, Nigeria's political environment, macroeconomic indicators, inflation outlook, exchange rates, monetary policy rates, crude oil estimates in the 2013 budget, the impact of JP Morgan on government debt instruments, and an overall outlook for the rest of the year. Key points include expectations that inflation will remain in single digits by year's end, the monetary policy rate will be maintained, and oil production may struggle to reach targeted levels in the 2013 budget.
Monetary Policies adopted by the developed economies to bring back the GDP growth to the rate prior to crises of 2008. This may lead to asset inflation cause to asset bubble, if policy bank rate continue to remain at near zero for prolonged period
Cowry market review for 2015 and outlook for 2016Tobi Ajayi
The document provides a review of the Nigerian economy and outlook for 2016. In 2015, real GDP growth slowed in the first two quarters but picked up to 2.84% in Q3 as crude oil production increased under the new administration. However, lower global oil prices reduced oil revenues. Manufacturing was neutral with expansion in production and orders offset by weakened demand and employment contraction. Foreign exchange scarcity also negatively impacted trade. While inflation remained in single digits, the currency depreciated due to declining reserves.
The document provides an overview of various financial markets and economic indicators from an investment advisory perspective. It discusses recent performance and outlook for domestic and global equities, bonds, commodities, real estate and other asset classes. Some key points are: domestic inflation slowed while wholesale prices contracted, Indian GDP growth was 7.3% for the year, concerns around a weak monsoon may impact inflation, global markets remain sensitive to developments in Europe and potential US rate hikes.
Cdl research nigeria-inflation_monitor-and-pre-mpc_reviewsenjbine
Headline inflation in Nigeria dropped to 8.4% in June 2013, a five-year low, driven by lower non-food prices. Core inflation remained in the single digits at 5.5% while food inflation rose to 9.6% due to planting season effects. The Central Bank of Nigeria's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 12% at its upcoming July meeting due to pressures on the naira exchange rate from factors like declining oil revenues and global market pressures.
Vietnam's Recent Economic Development 2013Quynh LE
This report provides an update on Vietnam's recent economic developments. It summarizes that global growth is stabilizing at a moderate pace, though recovery in industrial production has been uneven across countries. Financial market conditions have improved due to monetary easing, but capital costs for developing countries are rising as risks in high-income countries recede. Inflation remains benign in most countries, prompting further monetary policy easing. Trade growth has slowed after a cyclical rebound, while most commodity prices have weakened in response to increased supply and substitution.
The document provides an overview of global and domestic economic conditions and outlooks across various sectors in a monthly investment advisory. Some key points:
- Global equity markets saw declines in September due to ongoing weakness in China and fears of rising US interest rates. Domestic Indian markets were also impacted by foreign outflows.
- The RBI cut interest rates by 50 basis points to boost the Indian economy amid signs of recovery in industrial growth and moderating inflation. This was welcomed by markets.
- Sector outlooks varied with IT, healthcare and financials expected to outperform while metals and utilities faced challenges due to global and regulatory factors. Government policy changes could boost infrastructure.
From the BPV Capital Management investment team comes our most recent update on capital markets. In this issue, we examine how the stabilizing global economy pushed equities, interest rates, and commodities higher in April.
The document summarizes recent economic developments in the UK and globally. It notes that global economic growth has slowed due to factors like trade tensions. While the UK labor market remains positive, living standards are precarious as household savings are negative. The IMF downgraded forecasts for UK and global growth. Brexit could reduce UK GDP by 4-5% according to IMF scenarios. Consumer and business confidence in the UK are low, and the stock market is recovering more slowly than global markets. Mergers and acquisitions deals are declining in both the US and UK.
- Global equity markets declined due to concerns over the tapering of US quantitative easing and rising US bond yields. The MSCI AC World Index fell 1.43% on losses in Japan and emerging markets.
- In Asia, Japanese markets saw sharp falls while Chinese and Philippine economic data was relatively strong. The Bank of Thailand cut interest rates. In Europe, unemployment rose in southern countries while data in Switzerland, Sweden and the UK was ahead of expectations.
- US housing and consumer confidence data was positive but equity markets fell for the second week. In Latin America, central banks in Canada and Colombia left rates unchanged while Brazil raised rates and had weak GDP growth.
The document provides an outlook for global and Indian markets in 2019. Some of the key points covered include:
- Global growth is expected to slow slightly in 2019 compared to 2018. The US is expected to see a soft economic landing as fiscal stimulus fades. China will see a calibrated slowdown.
- Emerging markets are in a better position to benefit from supportive macroeconomic conditions like stable oil prices and a weaker US dollar. However, they remain vulnerable to rising US interest rates.
- Indian GDP growth is forecast to remain robust in 2019 and 2020, supported by macroeconomic stability and various growth drivers. Earnings growth and valuations remain positive for Indian equity markets.
The document summarizes Washington State's export destinations in 2011. China was the top destination, receiving $11.2 billion or 17.3% of Washington's total exports. The next largest destinations were Canada, Japan, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates. Together, the top 25 export markets accounted for 87.5% of Washington's total exports. Asian markets as a whole received 46% of Washington's exports, totaling over $26 billion.
The document discusses the economy and monetary policy of Russia. It provides economic indicators for Russia from 2010-2014, showing GDP growth slowing after 2011. It outlines the monetary policy framework and highlights four stages of monetary policy in Russia from 2000-2015: 1) rapid money growth and reserves until 2008, 2) crisis response 2008-2009 with GDP decline and currency devaluation, 3) partial return to previous policies from 2010-2011, and 4) inflation targeting and changes due to external instability from 2012 onward. Charts show trends in monetary indicators, interest rates, inflation, and trade balances over this period.
- Global stocks and commodities rallied on dovish comments from the US Federal Reserve about continuing liquidity support. However, the IMF lowered its global growth forecasts.
- In Asia, regional markets gained despite below-expectations China data. China increased quotas for foreign investment and Singapore posted strong growth. Central banks in several countries kept rates unchanged.
- European markets rose despite weak economic news. Credit rating agencies downgraded France and Italy while political uncertainty impacted Portugal. The IMF cut forecasts for the Eurozone and raised them for the UK.
- Comments from the Fed reassured investors in US markets. While consumer confidence fell, budget surplus rose. Central banks in Mexico, Brazil and Canada left rates unchanged,
Global economies are witnessing two-speed recovery with the US economy showing firm signs of recovery, while growth in Euro Area still languishing in sub-optimal territory. Among the Asian economies, growth in Japan and China too continues to remain tepid. We discuss this in detail in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters. In the section on Domestic Trends, we analyze that the economic condition in the present scenario is in greater disarray than it was during the breakout of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, when both government as well as the RBI were quick to respond to the challenges and brought the economy back to recovery path within no time. In Corporate Performance, we examine the sectoral performance in the last fiscal in order to find the sectors which were badly hit in the wake of the current bout of economic crisis. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Agriculture, a traditionally important sector of the Indian economy because of its enormous contribution in being the provider of basic source of livelihood to the most of the population in India. However in the recent past various challenges such as low agricultural yield, declining share of public investment, and lack of technological advancements have plagued the sector. We discuss the sector’s challenges and suggest measures to bolster its output. In the Special Article, we discuss India's deteriorating external position in the last few years, manifesting itself in a steady deterioration in the current account which slipped from a surplus at the start of the last decade to a huge deficit of 4.8 per cent in 2012-13. Bulk of the deterioration in current account is attributable to the sharp rise in merchandise trade deficit over the last decade. Ultimately, for India to contain its current account deficit at a more sustainable level of 2.0-2.5 per cent of GDP, it is essential that we ensure competitiveness of our goods and services, so that our imports are contained and exports boosted.
The document discusses several pressing economic questions facing Nigeria in 2022, including whether the Russian-Ukraine crisis could lead to World War 3, if Nigeria is approaching a fiscal cliff, and whether the naira exchange rate is doomed. It notes that while higher oil prices benefit Nigeria's oil revenue, rising global interest rates and debt service costs pose challenges. Alternative government funding options like increased borrowing are discussed but come with their own risks.
Similar to Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - August 2015: LOOT RECOVERY???- Restitution is No Retribution (20)
- The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell back into negative territory, indicating economic contraction. Dangote will reopen its tomato factory this month.
- Oil prices remained above $56 per barrel, which is positive for government revenue. However, the negative PMI and low capacity utilization could lead to job losses.
- Prices for commodities like maize, tomatoes, and cement varied slightly across key cities in Nigeria but were generally stable. E-commerce prices for some consumer goods were around 5.9% higher than market prices on average.
The MPC maintained the status quo on monetary policy parameters while expressing concerns about global volatility and weaknesses in domestic inflation fundamentals. While cautious, the MPC acknowledged that money supply growth contributes to inflation and hinted that a more accommodative policy may come in 2017, supported by potential GDP growth, higher oil prices, and government economic plans. The MPC guidance focused on a more accommodative stance, increased monitoring of money supply, and financial system soundness.
The document provides advice to an investor who invested $100k in the Nigerian stock market in 2015 and has seen the value of their portfolio decline to less than $40,000 due to currency fluctuations and market performance. The advisor notes that a 150% return would be required to recover the original dollar value and that exiting the market now to cut further losses may be preferable to waiting and risking an even greater loss. They suggest the investor consider their risk tolerance and that only a highly optimistic investor would expect a quick rebound of the Nigerian stock market given current economic conditions.
The document summarizes economic conditions in Nigeria from 2016 to early 2017. It notes that while the President made promises in 2016 to eliminate fuel shortages, improve security, and crack down on corruption, many of these promises went undelivered as oil production slumped, unemployment rose, and inflation increased. The economy struggled in 2016 with GDP declining. Early signs in 2017 suggest factors like higher oil prices and a rising manufacturing index could lead to modest GDP growth, but uncertainty remains around issues like the exchange rate and upcoming elections.
The document summarizes an economic bulletin from Financial Derivatives Company predicting that Nigeria's headline inflation rate will rise to 18.2% in October 2016, representing a 0.3% increase from September and the highest rate in 11 years. It also notes that the naira appreciated against the dollar in both the official and parallel markets during the month. However, dollar scarcity still pushed domestic prices higher. The report forecasts continued inflationary pressures during the festive season as consumer demand and expectations rise, though consumer resistance to higher prices has also increased due to lower incomes.
The document provides an overview of economic conditions in Nigeria and globally in October 2016. It discusses the rejection of Nigeria's $30 billion external debt plan, falling oil production and revenues, high interest rates, and inflation. Globally, it notes steady but sluggish growth, and highlights economic successes in telecoms and construction when markets are allowed to function. It analyzes Nigeria's exchange rates and concludes several economic indicators are concerning, with money supply, GDP growth, national debt, and inflation rated as red.
1) Domestic commodity prices in Nigeria saw mixed movements, with rice falling to N20,000 per 50kg bag while garri increased to N15,000 per 50kg bag and palm oil rose to N17,000.
2) Brent crude fell 2.74% to $49.98 per barrel and WTI declined 2.65% to $49.18 per barrel on concerns over OPEC's output deal, though losses were capped by a drawdown in US crude inventories.
3) Cocoa prices increased 1.24% due to threats to production from illegal mining in Ghana, while sugar prices dropped 1.46% on steady supply and limited demand. Wheat and corn futures rose
The document discusses the difference between recession and stagflation using global case studies. It provides definitions and examples of each. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth along with rising unemployment and falling inflation. Examples given include recessions in the US, Brazil, and Russia. Stagflation is defined as slowing economic growth combined with high unemployment and high inflation. Examples given include stagflation in OECD countries in the 1970s-1980s due to oil shocks. The document concludes that while Nigeria is experiencing negative growth and inflation, falling monthly inflation indicates the country is currently in a recession rather than stagflation.
This document summarizes and discusses the distortions created by the Mercator map projection, which has been widely used in classrooms and shaped people's perceptions of world geography. While useful for navigation, the Mercator projection greatly exaggerates the size of countries in the northern hemisphere like Canada, Russia, Europe, and the US compared to their actual sizes. In contrast, Africa appears much smaller on the Mercator map than in reality. This distortion could have unintentionally promoted European imperialism by making Western nations seem more powerful. However, no map projection can perfectly represent the spherical earth on a flat surface without some distortions.
1) The vacancy factor in Nigeria increased from 165 in March 2016 to 172 in June 2016, with the highest vacancy rate in Lekki at 65%.
2) Both the residential and commercial real estate indices rose in the second quarter of 2016, though the market continues to deteriorate due to challenges like high inflation and the economic recession.
3) Increasing building material prices and declining purchasing power are expected to further dampen housing demand and lead to more movement to the suburbs, while the real estate market recovery is anticipated in 2017.
Domestic commodity prices in Nigeria were mixed, with some prices like palm oil and maize rising slightly in Lagos, Kano, and Onitsha while others held steady. The naira closed at N330/$ in the interbank market. Consumer goods stocks declined, with the consumer goods sub index losing 1.6%. International oil prices fell over 2% on rising US crude inventories and a stronger dollar. Agricultural commodity prices also moved lower due to oversupply concerns, although corn prices rose slightly on good US crop conditions. Analysts expect further declines in oil and soft commodity prices due to persistent oversupply issues.
The Central Bank of Nigeria tightened its monetary policy rate to 14% annually in an effort to curb headline inflation which had risen to 16.5%. This rate hike aimed to increase dollar inflows to support the foreign exchange market, reduce external reserve depletion, boost national savings, and reduce regulatory arbitrage between banks and the CBN. In the short term, the higher interest rates were expected to lead to appreciation of the naira exchange rate against the dollar in both the interbank and parallel markets. However, inflation in Nigeria has largely been driven by supply shocks which may not respond to interest rate adjustments. The higher borrowing costs could also increase corporate failures, non-performing loans, and government debt service costs, inflicting
The Monetary Policy Committee made an audacious move by increasing the Monetary Policy Rate by 200 basis points to 14% to combat high inflation, contrary to market expectations that favored stimulating growth over inflation. Inflation had spiked to 16.5%, while the interest rate remained at 12%, fuelled by supply shocks and forex scarcity. The MPC highlighted its quest to achieve a positive rate of return to attract foreign investors and deepen the forex market in order to strengthen the Naira and temper rising input costs. However, tightening monetary policy during a recession risks plunging the economy further into recession through the paradox of thrift.
The Vacancy Factor Index for Q2 2016 came in at 72% for June, indicating a marginal rise in vacant properties in high-end neighborhoods of Lagos. The rise was expected given GDP contraction and high rental defaults. Vacancy rates were highest in Lekki, which also has the most developments but few uncompleted projects. Victoria Island had the lowest vacancy due to mixed commercial and residential use. Declines in the index are only expected when GDP and business conditions improve to boost demand.
Headline inflation in Nigeria soared to an 11-year high of 16.5% in June, confounding analysts who expected a marginal decline. While a new foreign exchange regime began on June 20th, the dysfunctional market continued to be a key driver of inflation. Food prices rose due to increases in the prices of fish, meat, and other foods. Transportation costs also increased despite a slight fall in petrol prices, as diesel prices rose substantially. Looking ahead, monetary policymakers will have to balance controlling inflation with supporting economic growth as they determine interest rates.
Headline inflation in Nigeria soared to an 11-year high of 16.5% in June, confounding analysts who expected a marginal decline. While a new foreign exchange regime began on June 20th, the dysfunctional market continued to be a key driver of inflation. Food prices rose due to increases in the prices of fish, meat, and other foods. Transportation costs also increased despite a slight fall in petrol prices, as diesel prices rose substantially. Looking ahead, monetary policymakers will have to balance controlling inflation with supporting economic growth as they determine interest rates.
The document provides current commodity prices for various goods in three Nigerian cities - Lagos, Kano, and Onitsha. It then provides further details on commodity prices at different markets within Lagos and Kano, noting prices have remained stable. The document also discusses factors driving inflation in Nigeria, including fuel prices and supply issues, and their impact on food prices. Finally, it provides brief updates on movements in stock prices, oil prices, and agricultural commodity prices.
Headline inflation in Nigeria increased sharply to a record 13.7% in April 2016, continuing the trend of rising prices. Several factors contributed to higher inflation, including a 67.6% increase in petrol prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate that saw the naira depreciate to N355/$, and persistent power shortages. The core inflation index, which excludes volatile food prices, rose to 13.4% due to higher fuel and electricity costs. Food inflation also increased. Looking ahead, further rises in inflation are expected in the short term due to currency depreciation, fuel prices hikes, and reduced food supplies.
The document lists current commodity prices in three Nigerian cities - Lagos, Kano, and Onitsha. It shows the prices of items like cement, cassava, maize, flour, sugar, rice, palm oil, beans, semovita, and pasta. Domestic commodity prices have remained stable. The document also discusses rice imports, the quality of local rice, herdsmen threatening food security, and stock market performance.
More from Financial Derivatives Company Limited (FDC) (20)
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
Understanding how timely GST payments influence a lender's decision to approve loans, this topic explores the correlation between GST compliance and creditworthiness. It highlights how consistent GST payments can enhance a business's financial credibility, potentially leading to higher chances of loan approval.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial ReportsEasyReports
Well-crafted financial reports serve as vital tools for decision-making and transparency within an organization. By following the undermentioned tips, you can create standardized financial reports that effectively communicate your company's financial health and performance to stakeholders.
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance36 Crypto
Learn in-depth about Dogecoin's trajectory and stay informed with 36crypto's essential and up-to-date information about the crypto space.
Our presentation delves into Dogecoin's potential future, exploring whether it's destined to skyrocket to the moon or face a downward spiral. In addition, it highlights invaluable insights. Don't miss out on this opportunity to enhance your crypto understanding!
https://36crypto.com/the-future-of-dogecoin-how-high-can-this-cryptocurrency-reach/
South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcriptynfqplhm
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Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - August 2015: LOOT RECOVERY???- Restitution is No Retribution
1. MONTHLY ECONOMIC
NEWS AND VIEWS
August 5, 2015
Market vs Control
Economy
Presented at Lagos Business School
Executive Breakfast Meeting
by
B.J. Rewane
Financial Derivatives Company Limited
Nigeria goes back to the Future
6. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
6
Economic Snapshot August 6, 2015
New Data
Unemployment + underemployment 26.5%
Headline inflation 9.2%
Misery index 35.7%
Interest rates (average NIBOR) 13.10%
7. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
7
Economic Snapshot August 2015
New Rules - Nigerians
40 items now ineligible for any forex payment from the
banks
Cannot deposit dollar cash into domiciliary accounts
Can only deposit by Bank transfer
Allowed to spend up to $50,000 a year on naira debit
cards
8. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
Economic Snapshot August 2015
Mandate
To reorganize the NNPC
Cut down on waste
Block leakages
Incentivize oil companies
Credentials
Private sector background
Strong academic
credentials (Harvard Law)
NNPC Mandate for NCC
New Appointments
New GMD for NNPC and NCC
Mandate
Block leakages
Cut down on waste
Renew GSM licenses
Incentivize operators to
invest
Credentials
Strong academic
background
High integrity
8
10. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
10
Global Imperatives - Stable World
H1‟15 was stable with a lower level of economic activity
Most global and regional growth estimates were missed or
trimmed
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
U.S.A E.U China Nigeria
Q1'15
Q2'15
Quarterly Growth Estimates
11. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
11
Global Imperatives - China Growth Slows
U.S, the engine of global growth, stuttered while China
shrunk marginally
The E.U grappled with Grexit or Grelout
The U.K went from a coalition government to majority
rule
The Tories exploited xenophobia, making immigration
and E.U referendum the issues
BRICS were hit by falling commodity prices, corruption
and geopolitical tension
12. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
12
Global Imperatives - Gold Loses its Shine
Financial markets rallied with a higher volatility index
The U.S dollar rose sharply above all expectations
The price of gold crashed to an 11 year low: below
$1000 per ounce
Only 4 major currencies in the world were overvalued
against the U.S dollar
13. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
13
Global Imperatives - Strong Dollar
Using the hamburger PPP analysis by the Economist
magazine
Global Banking System was stable
No notable causalities
Global inflation was muted with the U.S at 0.2%, E.U
(0.2%), U.K (0)%, Japan (0.4)% and Canada (1)%
Interest rates in most advanced markets were relatively
unchanged except in Canada
Global trade forecast slashed to 3.3% in 2015
14. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
14
Global Imperatives
Global trade forecast slashed to 3.3% in 2015
Commodity prices declined, with FFB index dropping by
-22.9%
Industrial raw materials (IRM) index, including oil, is
down 9.1%
Global stock markets were riled by the Greek scare
U.S. markets S&P 500 inched up 0.2% in H1
15. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
15
Global Imperatives
Q2‟15 is expected to be the point of inflection in
earnings
The federal reserve left rates unchanged in July
There is a 50/50 chance that rates will increase in
September
16. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
16
Notable Events in July
China‟s stock markets plunged again
The Chinese government abortively tried to bail out the
market
Citibank thinks China is already growing at 5%
Stabilisation looks fragile posing a triple risk
a) Spill-overs from increased global exposure
b) Commodity price shock
c) China‟s export/import substitution
17. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
17
SSA Imperatives- Africa Resilient
SSA economies are facing tough times with sharply
lower commodity prices
Weaker fiscal revenues and pressure to cut spending
squeezed African countries
Fears of an increase in U.S interest rates stoked anxiety
about investment flow reversals
African currencies fell across board due to negative
trade balance
18. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
18
Commodity Prices in H1’2015
The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) declined by 3.55% in
H1‟15 from H2‟14
Driven by a decline in the prices of most commodities
-35.00% -30.00% -25.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00%
WTI ($/b)
Brent Crude Oil ($/b)
Natural Gas ($/MMBtu)
Gold ($/ounce)
Silver ($/ounce)
Cocoa ($/mt)
Sugar (US cents/pound)
Corn (US cents/bushel)
Rough rice ($/cwt)
Wheat (US cents/bushel)
% Change (H1’15 vs. H2’14)
19. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
19
Global Oil Prices at 6-Month Low
Oil price has fallen 28% since it rallied to $69pb in May
Brent dropped to a 6-month low of $49.5pb
Soft commodities average price decline: 8%
Estimated effect in 2015
Fiscal revenue: 25% decline
Trade balance: 79% decline between 2014 & 2015
Devaluation – commodity price = 3%
Inflation effect = 3% increase to approx. 12%
20. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
20
Soft Commodities - Also Falling
Average cocoa prices down slightly
with 0.73% in H1‟15
Concerns over supply shortage of
cocoa in Ivory Coast and Ghana
Large stockpiles affecting prices of
other agric. commodities
Grain prices down 7%
Sugar prices lost 15.96%
Also affected by weakening Brazilian
real
21. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
21
Nigeria – H1 Review-Economic Slowdown
Q1 EVENTS
Electricity tariff increase postponed till July
2015 budget haggling between NASS and executive
N10 cut in PMS pump price to N87 per litre
Elections pushed forward by 6 weeks to March 28
Oil price plunged below $46pb
LNG prices were down 20% to $6.8/MMBtu
22. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
22
Nigeria – H1 Review-Economic Slowdown
Q1 Events
Boko Haram insurgency unabated
Naira devalued 18% and interest rates left unchanged
Power supply sharply lower at 2000MW
Impact
Q1 growth sharply down to 3.96%
Trade balance falls sharply also
23. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
23
Nigeria – H1 Review-Economic Slowdown
Impact
External reserves down 13.58% to $29.79bn
Purchasing Managers Index shrank 2.1% to 55.2
Aberrational and temporary interbank spike in interest
rates to 90% p.a.
Inflation inched up to 8.5%
24. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
24
Nigeria – H1 Review- Economic Slowdown
Q2
March 28 election peaceful and conceded
Incumbent out challenger in
Historical milestone in Nigeria
Fuel shortage continues and increases
Oil prices jump 25% to $69pb
Inflation up again to 9.2%
MPC maintains status quo on interest and exchange rates
25. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
25
Nigeria – H1 Review- Economic Slowdown
Q2
CRR harmonised to 31%
Salary arrears build up across most states
Transition team set up
Impact
Post election stock market and naira rally, but fizzles after
2 weeks on weak fundamentals
External reserves haemorrhage reduces
26. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
26
Nigeria – H1 Review- Economic Slowdown
Impact
Import cover flat at 4.7 months
Naira under attack widening, the parallel market
premium to 20%
Naira traded at N248/$ at the BDC
PMI expands to 56
Retailers average inventory up to 5 weeks
30. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
30
Global Growth Projections
IMF projects a moderate global GDP growth of 3.3% for
2015 in its July outlook
Gradual recovery in advanced economies
U.S and U.K set to increase interest rates
Emerging and developing economies continue to slow
down
IMF projects a 6.8% GDP growth for China in 2015
4.4% for the SSA region
31. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
31
Global Interest Rates
U.S Fed leaves rates unchanged as expected
It remains on course to raising rates this year, looking
beyond:
Volatility in the Chinese financial market
Falling commodity prices
BoE unanimously held interest rate at 0.5% p.a.
Likely timing of a rate hike is towards the end of 2015-
BoE Governor
32. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
32
Global Inflation
U.S inflation was up 0.3% in June
Positive territory for the first time in 2015
U.S Fed expects inflation to rise to 2% over the medium
term
U.K inflation declined to 0% in June from 0.1% in May
Recent decline in oil price and energy could push
inflation into negative territory in the next few months
34. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
34
Advanced Economies
A setback in U.S Q1‟15 output has led to a downward
revision to global growth
Underlying fundamentals remain intact
Easy financial conditions
More neutral fiscal policy in the euro area
Lower oil prices
Improving confidence and labor market conditions
35. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
35
Emerging Market Economies
The growth slowdown is expected to continue in the
second half of the 2015
This reflects several factors
Lower commodity prices
Tighter external financial conditions
Structural bottlenecks
Rebalancing in China
Economic distress related to geopolitical factors
A rebound in activity is expected to result in a pick up in
growth in 2016
36. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
36
SSA
Fed rate rise likely to exacerbate financial markets
instability & add to currency pressures in the region
Commodity prices expected to remain low in H2‟15
Will impact commodity-dependent economies
Will hamper investment
Consumption expected to remain robust
Stronger growth in the advanced economies to shore up
economic activity
39. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
39
Impact On Nigeria
An interest rate hike in developed economies will trigger
capital flow reversals from emerging economies such as
Nigeria
Heightened currency pressures
Slowdown in recent reserves accretion
China is SSA‟s largest trading partner
A slowdown in economic activities in China will impact
negatively on the external balance of economies such as
Nigeria
41. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
41
H2’15 Outlook - Oil
The U.S dollar will play an increasing role in determining
the direction of commodity prices
A hike in U.S interest rates will boost the dollar
Outlook for oil prices remains bearish
Expected to fluctuate between $50 - $55pb
Increased supply when Iran ramps up production
42. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
42
H2’15 Outlook - Oil
The lifting of Iranian sanctions is expected to release an
additional 800,000 to 900,000 bpd of oil
Adding to the supply glut of 2.5mbpd and increasing the
selling pressure
Iran is the 3rd largest OPEC producer
EIA projects an increase in global oil demand by 1.4mbpd
in 2016
Sufficient to offset the supply glut?
43. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
43
H2’15 Outlook – Soft Commodities
Grain prices likely to decline further in H2
Based on expectations of good harvests
Rebound in prices will occur in 2016 when large stockpiles
have been worked through
El Nino concerns and possible supply shortage of cocoa in
Ivory Coast and Ghana may push prices higher
45. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
45
Outlook - GDP
Economic activities will remain tepid until clarity on
fiscal policy direction
Reduced northern insurgency will allow for an increase
in agric output
Commencement of the harvest season will provide a
boost
Improved power supply expected with a reduction in gas
pipelines vandalism
Average grid output: 4,500-5,000MW
46. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
46
Outlook - GDP
Boosting manufacturing activities
Supplementary budget in
September
Increased but targeted spending
Paying off arrears of salaries and
contractors
5.94
3.96 3.99
4.1
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 * Q3'15 * Q4'15*
Quarterly GDP Growth Rate (%)
Source: NBS, *: FDC’s forecasts
47. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
47
Outlook - Money Supply Growth
Growth in M2 will be driven by
increased government spending
Passage of a supplementary
budget in Q3
Possibility of another bailout fund
Will still remain below CBN‟s
target of 15.2%
Increased spending within the
deficit of 3% of GDP -3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
19
19.5
20
Dec'14 Jan'15 June'15 Dec'15
M2 (N'trn) M2 growth (%)
49. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
49
Inflation to Spike to 11-12% in H2’15
Inflation increase will be at a
slower pace
But could move towards 11-12%
due to:
Impact of 5-10% currency
adjustment
Likely removal of fuel subsidy with
oil price at $55pb
Money supply growth of 3%
Electricity tariff adjustment will be
accepted because of improved
supply
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan'15 Dec'15
Inflation Rate (% )
50. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
50
Interest Rates
Money market rates will trend lower in H2
Driven by anticipated increase in liquidity
CBN likely to reduce interest rates by 100bps
To signal the start of an accommodative monetary policy cycle
Will encourage lending and boost spending while reinforcing
the fiscal stimulus
Borrowing costs will decline
Pressure on margins will reduce
52. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
52
External Reserves Depletion to Continue
Factors that could curb
reserves accretion in H2‟15
U.S Fed interest rate hike
Further decline in oil prices
Increased currency pressure
34.28
29
30.5
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
Jan'15 Jun'15 Dec'15
External Reserves
53. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
53
Forex Markets
The forex market is now segmented into 4 layers
The differential between the segments will widen as the
ability to move between segments becomes more difficult
and risky
The sharp drop in oil price will lead to a deterioration in
the terms of trade to 47.8 from 70.5
The desperation for electronic dollars will push that market
to N250
Cash dollars will be at N240
The magnitude of the currency value adjustment will be
dependent on when the subsidy is removed
57. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
57
Policies Implemented (H1’15)
Fiscal policy
N10 reduction in PMS price to N87
Trade policy
Common ExternalTariff implemented
Monetary policy
Net open position reviewed upwards to 0.5%
RDAS scrapped, IFEM adopted
CRR debits now weekly
CRR harmonized to 31%
MPR unchanged at 13% p.a.
58. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
58
CBN’s Administrative Policies (H1’15)
RDAS and interbank funds restricted to Letters of Credit
(LCs), Bills for Collection and other invisible transactions
Limit placed on naira card usage overseas to $50,000
Dollarization of the economy is illegitimized
Naira is the only currency for transactions and contracts
59. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
59
CBN’s Administrative Policies (H2’15 so far)
CBN shifts more items away from IFEM
Staples: rice, poultry and tinned fish in sauce
Financial instruments and securities
All forex demand at the CBN intervention window must
be backed by naira cover 48 hours before the request is
sent to the window
Banks are to credit CBN account with the naira
equivalent of their request
60. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
60
Illicit Financial Flows (IFF)
Nigeria ranked amongst the 10 largest sources of illicit
financial flows by the Global Financial Integrity Group
An estimated $15.7bn of illicit funds go through the
system annually
Banks now rejecting foreign currency cash deposits
Naira strengthens temporarily to N215 and slides again to
N225
Will go back to N240
61. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
61
Policies to expect in H2
Fiscal stimulus package will be embedded in supplementary
budget
Recurrent/capex ratio will be pushed to 70/30
Nigeria will engage the World Bank on Oct 6 in Peru
Subsidies will go
Refineries will be revamped
62.
63. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
FAAC Allocation up 27% in July
FAAC allocation shared in July
was N518.5bn
26.8% higher than N409bn in June
Lagged effect of higher oil prices
in April/May
We expect H2 average to be
slightly higher at N480bn
Recovered funds will help boost
government revenues
Source: FMF, FDC Research 63
500.13
522.05
435
388
409
518.5
462
480
300
360
420
480
540
600
660
720
780
840
900
FAAC (N'bn)
63
64. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
Ships Awaiting Berth Picking Up Again
Ships awaiting berth increased
to 57 in July
From 49 in June
Reflects naira volatility
Some importers abandoning
goods at the ports
We expect a decline later in
H2 if naira stabilizes
Source: NPA, CBN, FDC Research 64
Financial Derivatives Company Limited
61
51
49
46
49 49
57
51
48
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
H1'15…
H2'15…
No of Ships Awaiting Berth
64
65. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
Rig Count relatively unchanged
Active rigs in Nigeria remained flat in July
Down to 10 from 19 at the beginning of the year
More rigs may be idled if oil price plunge continues
Source: Baker Hughes
874
215
19 10 0
100
200
300
400
500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15
US Canada Nigeria
65
66. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
Power Generation Up
Average power output from
the national grid rose to
4,300MW
Peak: 4,900MW
Attributed to reduced gas
pipeline vandalism
Expect an average of
4,000MW in H2‟15
Stable gas supply
Transmission company will
improve support to Gencos
Average Daily Power Generation
(MW)
Source: Nigeria Power Reform
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
16-Jan
6-Feb
27-Feb
20-Mar
10-Apr
1-May
22-May
12-Jun
3-Jul
24-Jul
66
67.
68. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
68
Sales remained resilient in South Africa despite
macroeconomic challenges
Apparel and Food/FMCG retailers saw similar total sales
growth of 9%
But food/FMCG saw stronger same store sales than
apparel
Food/FMCG: 6%
Apparel: 4%
Retail – South Africa
Source: Deutsche Bank
69. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
69
Truworths grew sales by 7%
Same store sales up 1%
Woolies apparel same store sales slowed to 4% from
8% in previous year
Pick ‘n Pay lost further market share
Sales growth of 6% compared to sector‟s growth of 9%
According to Deutsche Bank, top picks are Foschini,
Truworths,Woolies and Mr. Price
Retail – South Africa
Source: Deutsche Bank
70. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
70
Sales was sluggish in July
Garment and electronics down by 30%
FMCGs slightly up due to change in consumer buying
habits
Switching from expensive items to cheaper substitutes
Weekday and weekend traffic remained the same but
purchases declined
More window shopping
Domestic Retail – July 2015
71. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
71
Domestic Retail – July 2015
Retailers gradually beginning to increase prices of goods
to reflect increased cost
Imported rice rose, affected by CBN‟s policy ban on some
imports
Also partly due to increased demand towards the end of
the Muslim fast
72. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
72
Domestic Retail – July 2015
Inventory levels down and frequent stockouts
Exchange rate volatility and uncertainty is causing
confusion for retailers
Not clear when is the favorable time to import
Retailers don‟t want to order too much and end up sitting
on stocks
Cash-to-card ratio unchanged at 65:35
73. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
73
Outlook – H2’15
Expect slower domestic sales in August due to summer
travel
Sales will pick up in September due to back-to-school
shopping
Clarity in policy direction and appointment of ministers
will boost activities
New brands waiting to tap into the aspirational African
markets including Nigeria
Number of millionaires in Africa rose 145% between 2000
and 2014 (Bloomberg)
74.
75.
76. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
76
Name and shame by banks forced huge selling of
properties to pay down debts
War against corruption and money laundering pushing
down property values
Other investors still waiting for government policy
direction
Real Estate – July 2015
76
77. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
77
Over-supply of office space in the high end
Oil price plunge and consequent layoff of workers
affecting demand by foreign oil companies
Commercial vacancy factor in Lekki increased to 54% in
July from 48% in June
Real Estate – July 2015
77
79. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
79
Demand for residential properties in high-end areas
affected by exchange rate volatility
High vacancy factor in flooded areas like ParkView, Ikoyi
and Chevy view estate, Chevron, Lekki
Residential vacancy factor in Ikoyi up to 22% in July from
18% in June
Lekki: increased to 55% in July from 51% in June
Victoria Island: increased to 28% in July from 26% in June
Real Estate – July 2015
79
80. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
80
Vacancy Factor Up set to increase in H2’15
Source: FDC Research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Residential Vacancy Factor Commercial Vacancy Factor
Lekki
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Ikoyi
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Victoria Island
81. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
81
Outlook – H2’15
Real estate activities will rebound in H2‟15 after
appointment of ministers
Construction will continue as government releases funds
A lot of mixed developments in the pipeline will continue
Clarity in policy direction will bring back foreign investors
Surplus might cause rental prices to fall slightly
82. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
82
New Retail Developments
Over 70,000sq. metres of retail space expected to be available in
2015
Source: Northcourt
84. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
84
Aviation
Airlines continue to report higher profits especially in
the U.S and Asia
Principally due to lower aviation fuel prices
Passenger yields are down 5% year-to-year
Passenger traffic continues to grow
Growth in seats accelerated in May as more aircraft
came out of storage
U.S Airline consolidation increased and cost-cutting
intensified
85. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
85
Aviation
Growing business
confidence has increased
demand for passenger and
freight traffic
Downward trend in global
fares in U.S dollars has
continued
Air passenger load factors
are sustaining high levels at
79% 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
North America European Union Sub-Saharan Africa
86. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
86
Nigerian Aviation
Naira weakness takes a toll
International passenger traffic sharply lower in July
FGN and state government travels down by over 60%
Forcing carriers to offer discount fares
Both in premium and economy classes
Increased traffic to the Middle East and South East Asia
Load factors to Europe and back are down to 65% in
economy
Club: 45%
First Class: 30%
87. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
Steals and Deals87
PROMOS
• Economy from Abuja to:
• New York – from $1304
• Boston – from $1393
• Houston - from $1482
• Washington D.C – from $1341
Lufthansa
• Fares from N241,440
• Travel Dates: Aug 2 till Nov 30,
2015
• Offer Last: Till Aug 12, 2015
South African Airways
• Buy 10 tickets and get one free
Rwandair
• Buy 5 Business class tickets and
get one free
Kenya Airways
Discount fares and promos are
88. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
89
Domestic Aviation
Nigeria capitalises on IOCA audit pass mark
Domestic carriers under stringent scrutiny on safety and
maintenance
Also on punctuality and on-time performance
Airlines now penalised for late departures
Carriers also being scrutinised for governance, financial
performance and payment of obligations/salaries
89. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
90
Domestic Aviation
Arik and Aero remain the dominant players
In the African markets, Ethiopian Air, Asky, Air Ivoire and
SAA are growing rapidly
Kenya airways is in need of a bailout of $500m-$600m
90.
91. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
Global Equities Market
US stocks witnessed modest gains as firms bought back
stocks to improve valuations
The S&P 500 rose marginally by 0.37% in July
Average daily turnover decreased 12.04% to N4.07trn from
N4.62trn
Despite trading restrictions, stocks crash as Greece reopens
its stock market
Shanghai index continues to decline amidst worries of a spill
over effect
92
92. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
Global Equities Market
-10.50%
-8.50%
-6.50%
-4.50%
-2.50%
-0.50%
1.50%
3.50%
Global Indices July 2015
Source: FDC Research
93
93. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
Nigerian Stock Market Review
NSE ASI declined 8.16% in June, 12.92%YTD
Market capitalization declined 7.95%YTD, N893billion lost
Volatility reflects political cycle and uncertainties
Cappa and D‟Alberto Plc, and IHS Plc delisted on the
Nigerian Stock Exchange
Primary market activities subdued, as the market witnessed
just 2 IPOs this year.
94
94. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
Nigerian Stock Market Review
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
35,000.00
40,000.00
NSE INDEX (Jan-July) NSE INDEX (July)
Source: NSE, FDC Research
95
97. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
98
Analysis of Q2 Results
Mixed results and sectorial divide as banking sector
reveals poor outing in Q2
Impairments and punitive CRR ratio continues to plague
banking sector performance
Declining oil prices affect top line of oil & gas sector
results
Results reflect a harsh business operating environment
and macro-economic headwinds
98. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
Sector Indexes
Performance was negative
across all sectors
Banking sector recorded
the worst performance
Driven by poor Q2 results
Consumer goods continue
to suffer as inflation and
rising production costs
increase beyond projections
Source: NSE, FDC Research
99
99. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
100
Stock Market Today…
The market remains bearish as poor H1 results continue
to dampen investor confidence
Heightened uncertainty as investors grope in the dark
Debtors sell off stocks and other assets to restructure and
pay-off outstanding debts before debtors lists are published
SEC suspends implementation of 1kobo bottom price as
equities continue to fall
100. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
101
Policy Choices and Implications
Soothing temporary measures vs harsh market
fundamental measures
Conflict of ideals– Pain of market reforms vs comfort of
popular choices
Devaluation and rising inflation rates
Tightened monetary policy and the effect on general
commerce
101. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
102
Q3 Stock Market Outlook
Market performance to remain subdued in the absence of
a firm policy direction
Key appointments will serve as the much desired catalyst
for a market rally
Currency devaluation will attract foreign institutional
investors and stimulate the market
102. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
103
Q3 Stock Market Outlook
Uncertainty in the Nigerian Stock Exchange to persist till
end of Q3
Price correction for poor corporate earnings results
New rules on debtor name and shame is forcing M&A activity
Forcing asset sale and pushing stock prices down
Increased scrutiny and BVN is killing identity theft and forcing
consolidation of investors
103. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
PFAs Shifting Their Portfolios
Asset Class Dec-14 May-15 % Change
Equity 603.04 653.98 8.45%
Money Markets 541.52 585.09 8.05%
FGN Bonds 2396.55 2488.03 3.82%
Treasury Bills 497.78 601.65 20.87%
Mutual Fund 21.03 22.13 5.23%
State Bond 172.40 166.23 -3.58%
Supranatinal Bond 12.36 12.69 2.67%
Corporate Bond 119.44 140.06 17.26%
Real Estate 213.25 209.12 -1.94%
Cash & Others 33.94 34.3 1.06%
4,611.31 4,913.28
Fear of default by state
governments led to a
reduction in state bond
allocation
Treasury bills continue to
attract portfolio
investments as yields rise
104
104.
105. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
106
Political Update
Buhari separates party from
government
The party without a
government is a meaningless
association
The PDP survived as a party
because of government
patronage
“You go to war
with the army you
have – not the
army you wish to
have” - Donald
Rumsfeld
106. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
107
Political Update
The NASS crisis is a proxy war for 2019
Also positioning for the spoils of 2015
The House of Reps resolution is unlikely to be replicated
in the senate
The election tribunals will take out some key players
Changing the majority votes and making a resolution
academic
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108
Political Update
Maximum pressure will be applied with the anti-
corruption instruments
The appointment of cabinet members will have 3 tracks
Influence from the retired military constituency,
establishment (traditional rulers) and international &
financial community
Criteria will be competence, pedigree and integrity
108. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
109
Political Update
Political horse trading and federal character will be the
icing on the cake
The foundation of a third party is being laid
It will consist of the APC disgruntled and PDP
mercenaries
All 3 parties are likely to have northern candidates in the
2019 run up
After power consolidation, the Buhari team will embrace
economic reform
109. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
110
Political Update
Using the savings from anti-corruption as a safety net for
the poor
Buhari will benefit from a strategic undermining of Boko
Haram capabilities
This will consolidate his mass support in the northern
states
The public arraignment of some former ministers and
leading government officers will send a strong signal to
the country
110. Financial Derivatives Company Limited
111
Political Update
Scandals and blackmailing of new ministers and
appointees will force firings and resignations
The market will be looking to see how Buhari will move
against corruption within his ranks
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Outlook for August
More key appointments will be made in August
The scramble for office will slow after Buhari deals with
first insider culprits
The CBN will allow for dollar cash evacuation again
The naira will weaken at the parallel market to N245
The market will segment further into electronic, cash, IFEM
and export proceeds
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Outlook for August
Stock market will retreat before picking up after a cabinet
is announced
Real estate values will continue to tank in August, with
rents sliding
Oil prices will trade between $48 - $53pb
Fiscal revenues (FAAC) for states will be above N400bn in
August
The election tribunals will swing into action with some high
profile annulments
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Corporate Humour
115
Carolyn Kizer -
Cynics are right nine times out of ten.
- H. L Mencken
Happiness is a Chinese meal; sorrow is a
nourishment forever.
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Corporate Humour
116
We came, we saw, we went shopping.
A woman talks to one man, looks at a
second and thinks of a third.
Life is divided into the horrible and the
miserable.
- Jan Barrett
Bhartrihari -
-Woody Allen
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Corporate Humour
117
Murphy’s Law -
Happiness is good health and a bad
memory.
- Ingrid Bergman
It is easier to get forgiveness than
permission.
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Corporate Humour
118
John Rostoni-
It is better to be wanted for murder
than not to be wanted at all.
- MartyWinch
Most weightlifters are biceptual.
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Corporate Humour
119
Jean Paul Sartre
An ambassador is an honest man sent
abroad to lie for his country.
- Sir HenryWotton
3 „o clock is always too late or too early
for anything you want to do.