Our extensive coverage of the Americas this month includes an update on the United States that will examine whether the disappointing economic growth data for the fourth quarter of 2015 is cause for deep concern, assess the risk of further battling between President Barack Obama and the opposition-controlled Congress that could derail a weak but sustained recovery, and provide an early assessment of how the November presidential and congressional elections might turn out. PRS will also issue an update on Guatemala, where a political crisis driven by revelations of a massive network

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FEBRUARY COMING SOON
Our extensive coverage of the Americas this month
includes an update on the United States that will examine
whether the disappointing economic growth data for the
fourth quarter of 2015 is cause for deep concern, assess
the risk of further battling between President Barack
Obama and the opposition-controlled Congress that
could derail a weak but sustained recovery, and provide an
early assessment of how the November presidential and
congressional elections might turn out. PRS will also issue
an update on Guatemala, where a political crisis driven
by revelations of a massive network of corruption in the
government played a key role in the election of a political
novice to the presidency. Comic actor Jimmy Morales
took office in early 2016 with little chance of building a stable, sustainable majority coalition in the Congress, a handicap
that will compound the risks stemming from his evident lack of anything resembling a concrete plan for governance.
Rounding out the regional coverage, PRS will also produce a fully updated report on Venezuela, where the election of
a center-right majority at congressional elections held in early December creates a basis for dismantling the institutional
underpinnings of the leftist “revolution” initiated by Hugo Chávez in the late 1990s. Unfortunately, Chávez’s protégé,
President Nicolás Maduro, has signaled that he has no intention of ceding any political ground to his opponents, a stance
that creates a high risk of a constitutional crisis that could provoke military intervention, most likely on behalf of Maduro.
The growing risk of political instability bodes ill for near-term relief from dismal economic conditions, which will only get
worse in the increasingly likely event of sovereign default. The report will discuss the requirements for rescuing Venezuela
from its current deep predicament, and under what circumstances those requirements might actually be met.
Looking at the Middle East and North Africa, PRS will issue a revised reports on Egypt, where recent legislative
elections produced a National Assembly dominated by parties and independents who are broadly supportive of the
political and policy program offered by the country’s new strongman president, Adel Fattah el-Sisi. The report will assess
what Sisi’s strengthened position means in terms of the implementation of a liberal economic reform program and the
broader climate for investment and trade in Egypt. Particular attention will be paid to security-related risks, which, if
not adequately contained, could undermine confidence in Sisi’s ability keep the country safe, a development that would
have negative implications for both political stability and the attractiveness of the country’s investment opportunities.
This month’s examination of Sub-Saharan Africa includes a report on Gabon, which is scheduled to hold a presidential
election in August with an economy straining under the weight of diminishing oil export revenue. Although the

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Founded in 1979, the PRS Group is among the earliest commercial providers of political and country risk forecasts. Origi-
nally the Political Risk Services division of Frost & Sullivan, Inc. and then of UK-based IBC Group (now known as In-
forma), the firm occupies a niche market in the risk sector through the application of two globally recognized, proprietary,
quant-driven, and back-tested methodologies: Political Risk Services (PRS) and the International Country Risk Guide
(ICRG). A number of products based on these two risk rating systems are produced at regular intervals throughout the year.
The firm and its methodologies for assessing risk are the product of research conducted by Professors William Coplin and
Michael O’Leary of the Maxwell School of Public Affairs at Syracuse University in conjunction with the US Department
of State and the CIA. The overall goal was to develop an intellectually rigorous way of assessing the various components of
country risk that could be applied to a range of institutional settings. In the wake of the Iranian Revolution, where many
foreign firms were nationalized, the importance of the work intensified.
Our publications and data are used extensively worldwide by investors and businesses, colleges and universities, private
equity groups, and all of the main multilateral institutions.
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incumbent Omar Bongo Ondimba is expected to win a second seven-year term, he faces a potentially strong challenge
from Jean Ping, a former top figure in the governing PDG and an experienced campaigner who is running as the
joint candidate of a coalition of opposition parties campaigning on a platform of political reform. Recent strikes by
public sector workers demanding payment of back wages and bonuses are an unmistakable indicator of mounting fiscal
problems that are likely to encourage the government to grant high priority to financing infrastructure projects while
leading to delays in payment for imports. The report concludes with an assessment of whether the credit rating agencies
are keeping a close enough watch on the negative trends in the country.
Our extensive coverage of Western Europe this month includes a detailed report on Italy, where bond yields are pinned by
the ECB’s quantitative-easing program and the coalition government is talking up the prospect of lucrative business deals
with Iran. However, PRS will examine the risk implications of the rescue of four small banks last year, and the government’s
plans for resolving the legacy of bad debts that is now stirring some concern in the financial markets. Our report moreover
looks at the wider issues bedeviling Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s stuttering reforms agenda, as well as a summary analysis
of the state of the economy and the prospects for finally achieving an economic recovery that has so far proved elusive,
owing to a poor regulatory environment that deters investment, low productivity, and lingering fears of a debt crisis.
Banking sector issues also dominate our report on Austria this month, as we assess the very latest developments
concerning the resolution of creditor claims on HETA, the agency in charge of the bad debts from the failed Hypo
Group Alpe Adria. Our report looks at the federal- and state-level political implications of this banking saga as well
as how Europe’s refugee crisis and Austria’s sub-par economic prospects are shaping public opinion domestically and
inflicting damage on Austria’s investor reputation. Our report looks at how vulnerable economic growth is, its likely
effects on unemployment, and to what extent this is affecting the governing coalition’s cohesiveness and policymaking in
the light of gains for the far-right in sub-national elections last year and a presidential election on the horizon. Our report
rounds out by looking at whether the government has the strength of will to make the deeper cuts in public spending
needed to reverse the steady rise in the debt burden, which is approaching 90% of GDP.