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Has Off-Grid Electrification Come of Age?
The document discusses the urgent need for electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa, where over 1 billion people currently lack electricity. It emphasizes the importance of off-grid electrification as a transitional solution and the role of comprehensive planning for achieving universal access by 2030. The World Bank Group's initiatives in various countries illustrate the successful implementation of off-grid solutions and the integration of these systems with national efforts to expand electricity access.
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Has Off-Grid Electrification Come of Age?
- 2. evaluations that matter HasOff-Grid Electrification Come of Age? Ramachandra Jammi 02.21.2017
- 3. 3 Taking stock ofthe Electricity Access Gap Others Sub-Saharan Africa 40 11 Low-Access Countries 1 billion people with no access to electricity 591 million people now in Sub-Saharan Africa 993 million people by 2030 in Sub-Saharan Africa Without Electricity Access
- 4. 4 Taking stock ofthe Electricity Access Gap …And yet another generation in Sub- Saharan Africa will be denied the potential opportunities provided by electricity access.
- 5. 5 The World BankGroup’s Response 2012 2013 GLOBAL INITIATIVE FOR UNIVERSAL ACCESS BY 2030 BANK GROUP’S DIRECTIONS FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR “Grid, mini-grid, and off-grid solutions will all be pursued for electricity. They are not mutually exclusive and can be implemented in parallel or, under specific conditions, in sequence.”
- 6. 6 Unpacking Off-Grid Electrification Pico-solarphotovoltaic charging products: Typically for lighting, cell phone charging, radio Individual systems: Typically rooftop solar home systems (SHS) • household-sized systems • larger systems for small community needs Isolated network systems with generation plants • Microgrids: diesel, hydro, biomass, photovoltaic, wind, or hybrids • Minigrid: larger systems that handle water pumping, processing
- 7. PUTTING PEOPLE FIRST •Access to even small quantities of modern electricity is transformative for the unconnected. • Over time, people’s expectations for higher levels of access tend to grow. • Off-grid options have a crucial ‘pre-electrification’ role until grid-quality electricity arrives… • Dynamic transition from lack of access to pre-electrification to grid-quality electricity needs comprehensive planning, and staged implementation. 7 Journey Towards Universal Access
- 8. 8 Global Tracking Frameworkdistinguishes five levels (Tiers) of access Global Tracking Framework distinguishes five levels (tiers) of access: Tier 1 and Tier 2 market segments that typify the first hugely transformative step for basic access…climbing up to Tiers 3, 4 and 5; with Tier 5 requiring grid-quality electricity
- 9. 9 Catalyzing Off-grid Markets- Pivotal Achievements Supported by WBG PRE-ELECTRIFICATION SCALE-UP: BANGLADESH • Installed 750,000 rooftop Solar Home Systems (SHS) by 2010; • Rising exponentially to a cumulative 4 million by 2016 (12% of country population); • Responded to then-stalled grid expansion BANGLADESH
- 10. Catalyzing off-grid markets– Pivotal WBG-supported achievements 10 RAPID MARKET PENETRATION OF SOLAR PRODUCTS FOR ACCESS TIERS 1 AND 2: THE LIGHTING AFRICA AND LIGHTING GLOBAL PROGRAMS • More than 100 companies have sold over 14 million quality-certified pico-solar products. • This has lifted 21 million people in Africa and Asia to Tier 1 of the energy ladder. • IFC and World Bank’s Lighting Africa program and its successor, the Lighting Global program pioneered and ramped up this phenomenon through well-designed and targeted technical assistance for quality assurance and service delivery. • Cost-effective support: Value of products sold is several multiple orders of magnitude higher than relatively small outlay of Lighting Africa and Lighting Global programs.
- 11. 11 Catalyzing Off-grid Markets- Pivotal Achievements Supported by WBG STAGED PRE-ELECTRIFICATION: SRI LANKA • 268 village mini-hydro projects between 1997 and 2011 (serving 20 to 80 households each) • As the Ceylon Electricity Board’s Grid expanded, per plan, around 70 mini-hydros have been integrated with the grid. SRILANKA
- 12. 12 Catalyzing Off-grid Markets- Pivotal Achievements Supported by WBG REMOTE AREA ELECTRIFICATION • Argentina: 30,000 households (about 0.3 % of the population in a universal access country) • Peru: 100,000 households in remote and isolated areas (about 1.6 % of the population, mostly living in remote areas in a high access country) ARGENTINA PERU
- 13. 13 Catalyzing Off-grid Markets- Pivotal Achievements Supported by WBG NOMADIC POPULATION ELECTRIFICATION Mongolia: covered 85 percent of nomadic herder population with reliable supply chain sales and service centers numbers. MONGOLIA
- 14. 14 Mini and Micro-gridsActivities The World Bank Group supported minigrids on a significant scale in a few countries (Nepal, Sri Lanka, Mali, and Cambodia). Other relatively smaller efforts were made in Bangladesh, Mongolia, and Vietnam. Efforts are underway in Tanzania for a commercially oriented larger-scale off-grid program scale-up, leveraging private sector resources and promoting small- scale power projects. IFC’s review of business models for mini and micro- grids concludes that this subsector holds real potential and merits greater attention of operating companies, policymakers and investors.
- 15. 15 Towards Planned andCoordinated National Grid and Off-grid Rollout Implementation for Universal Access Approach pioneered by WB in Rwanda and Kenya, and underway in Myanmar marks a major break from piecemeal electrification activities and initiatives Anchored by a comprehensive least-cost geospatial plan which: • Serves to locate and target beneficiaries geospatially • Enables least-cost placement and expansion of electricity access infrastructure. • Guides a dynamically coordinated strategic-level rollout in space and time.
- 16. 16 Rwanda’s Geospatial ElectrificationRollout Plan Stage 1 and 2
- 17. 17 Leveraging the Geospatialleast-cost Rollout Plan for Syndicated Investment Financing Access rollout toward universal access requires sustained financing over two decades for most low access countries • The national geospatial least-cost strategic rollout plan serves to anchor and foster closer alignment of multiple and varied donor programs with national priorities. • It also facilitates and directs financing support (syndication) of the investment prospectus on-grid or off-grid and in space and time. • When backed by appropriate government policy and regulatory environment, can attract wider range of donors and private sector sources.
- 18. 18 Rwanda: Development PartnerPledges Development Partner Financing amount (US$, million) Programmed donor contribution World Bank and Global Environment Facility Dutch government Japan International Cooperation Agency African Development Bank Committed donor funding (off-grid) European Commission New partners Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa OPEC Fund for International Development Saudi fund Government contribution ($10m/yr.) ELGZ Customers TOTAL FINANCING 78 45 25 50 35 10 10 10 50 27 27 357 Rwanda: Prospectus Donor Financing Round Table 2009-2014
- 19. 19 Visible Progress: Rwanda’s100% coverage of public facilities nationwide ahead of schedule Rwanda: Access provided to public facilities (%) Institutions Baseline APR ’09 SEPT ‘12 SEPT ‘13 SEPT ‘14 Target ‘16 Actual DEC ‘15 Off-Grid Share Schools 21 35 37 37 80 100 54 Administrative Centers 39 56 59 59 100 100 10 Health Centers, Hospitals 38 53 57 57 100 100 16 Kenya: Similar progress is noted; Myanmar: Underway
- 20. 20 Strategic Lessons/Implications forOperations in Low Access Countries Putting People (Beneficiaries) First, Not Technology Solutions • Time is of the essence. Deploy the most appropriate technology to provide at least basic access quickly. • Plan for the fact that over time, almost all aspire to electricity services comparable to that of a of a well-managed utility-run grid system.
- 21. 21 Strategic Lessons/Implications forOperations in Low Access Countries Grid versus Off-Grid: A Falsely Framed Binary Choice • Grid and off-grid technologies and access service delivery are not necessarily either-or options. • Off-grid and grid combination plays out differently in different country contexts. • Off-grid electrification has a significant role in most low-access countries in the near future.
- 22. 22 Strategic Lessons/Implications forOperations in Low Access Countries Private and Public Sector: both have a role to play in Tier 1 and 2 markets WBG’s combined strengths come together for the benefit of low access countries for: • Catalyzing and enabling early stage (“pre-market") development • Designing the participation of the private and public sectors working in close partnership.
- 23. • Off-grid electrificationhas come of age in the Tier 1 and Tier 2 categories of electricity access. • Universal access in low access countries calls for comprehensive national plans for coordinated off-grid and grid and electrification in space and time. • A national geospatial least-cost strategic rollout plan also serves to align donor programs with national priorities and to syndicate financing from wider public and private sources. 23 What Works
- 24. evaluations that matter HasOff-Grid Electrification Come of Age? Join the conversation on Twitter #Goal7 Ramachandra Jammi 02.21.2017 http://ieg.worldbankgroup .org/evaluations/offgrid- electricity-services
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