1. Morning Briefing
February 14, 2013
Market Summary Market P/E 7.7
Equities
KSE100
13/02/13 17,696
12/02/13 17,611
Change 85.05
International Markets
Current Daily 1 mnth 3 mnth 1 Year
KSE100 17,696 0.5% 5.7% 9.6% 43.7%
BSE30 19,608 0.2% -1.6% 6.2% 9.9%
Dow 13,983 -0.3% 3.5% 11.5% 8.6%
S&P 500 1,520 0.1% 3.4% 12.3% 12.6%
FTSE 6,359 0.3% 4.1% 12.0% 7.8%
NIKKIE 11,251 -1.0% 3.5% 27.4% 24.3%
HangSeng 23,215 0.0% -0.5% 10.0% 11.0%
Currency Parity
Current Daily 1 mnth 3 mnth 1 Year
PKR/USD 98.11 0.0% -0.7% 1.8% 8.1%
PKR/YEN 1.04 0.0% -4.6% -14.8% -10.3%
PKR/EUR 131.13 -0.2% 0.7% 7.2% 9.9%
Commodities
Current Daily 1 mnth 3 mnth 1 Year
Gold (PKR) 53,357 0.2% -0.1% -0.7% 6.2%
WTI Crude 97.13$ -0.5% 3.4% 13.5% -3.6%
Portfolio Investment Summary 1 USD / PKR = 98
FIPI/LIPI GrossBuy Net Flow
(USD mn) (USD mn)
Foreign Investors 4.48 0.19
Individuals 42.44 (0.85)
Companies 30.34 1.33
Banks / DFI 6.44 (3.24)
NBFC 0.89 0.41
Mutual Funds 6.54 2.08
Other 1.77 0.08
Major Economic Indicators
ForexReserves Feb 01'13 USDbn 13.47
CPI-MoM Feb-13 1.67%
CPI-YoY Feb-13 8.07%
Imports 6MFY13 USDmn 2,090
Exports 6MFY13 USDmn 1,149
Trade Balance 6MFY13 USDmn -941
Remittances 6MFY13 USDmn 7,117
C/ABalance 6MFY13 USDmn 250
GDP Growth FY13E 3.7%
Real Interest Rate Dec-12 1.1%
SBP Policy Rate Dec-12 9.50%
GDR
MCBS @ 2 Ord. Sh US$ 2.60
OGDC @ 10 Ord. Sh US$ 18.50
UBLA@ 4 Ord. Sh US$ 2.39
LKCA@ 4 Ord. Sh US$ 3.10
SCRA
Net Flow (US$mn) Feb 12'13 1.34
Bank Al Jazira (SR) 27.30
Syed Danish Ali
Equity Research & Economics
(1.68)
(29.01)
(9.69)
(0.48)
(4.45)
(PKR bn)
4,429.82
4,405.75
(43.29)
24.06
GrossSell
(USD mn)
(4.29)
% Change
% Change
% Change
Turn over
All Shares
(mn)
262.0
236.3
25.63
Mkt Cap
All Shares
Politics & Economy
President Barack Obama announced that 34,000 troops about half the US force in
Afghanistan will withdraw by early 2014, bringing the United States one step closer
to wrapping up the costly, unpopular war. He renewed his pledge to a war-weary
American public that the 66,000 remaining US troops in Afghanistan would move
into a support role this spring.
• According to the State Bank it has been decided that the maximum spread allowed
between buying and selling rates of foreign currencies in open market forex trade
must not exceed 25 paisa, at any given time.
• The services sector trade deficit narrowed to 119.47 percent and reached to
$260.13 million during July-December 2012 against the deficit of $1,336.09
million during same period of last financial year. According the data released by
the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, exports of services grew by 60.84 percent and
reached to $4,161.12 million in first half of current financial year which was
recorded at $2,587.13 million during the same period of last year.
• Government borrowing from scheduled banks continued upward trend in the first
seven months of the current fiscal year, as it experienced a sharp increase of Rs186
billion, or around 29 percent, over the same period last year, according to the State
Bank.
• State Bank of Pakistan has rejected all bids for Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs)
of 3, 5 and 10 years tenor, while no bid was received for 20 years tenor bond. No
bid was received from primary dealers banks for PIBs of 20 years maturity. The
coupon rates for 3 years were 11.25, 5 years 11.50 and 10 years 12.00 per
annum. The face value of the offered amount was Rs 12.950 billion while the
realised amount was Rs 13.040 billion.
Fertilizer
• The first urea consignment of 27,500 tons imported by state-run grain trader,
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation under the credit facility has reached Gwadar
Port.
Oil & Gas
• The Oil Marketing Companies have proposed to the ministry of petroleum and
natural resources an increase in the margins on regulated products by 25 paisas on
petrol and one paisa per litre on high-speed diesel from the existing levels of
Rs1.98 per litre and Rs1.76 per litre, respectively.
Textile
• Karachi Cotton Exchange raised its cotton spot rate by Rs150 per maund (37.324
kilograms) to Rs 6,250 per maund.
Others
• According to KSE notice Dr. Zafar Iqbal Qadir has been appointed as chairman of
PTCL with effect from 13th February, 2013.

2. 2
International
• Brent crude steadied on Wednesday, holding just below a nine-month high near
$119 per barrel on forecasts for a faster-than-expected growth in global oil
demand this year, but easing tensions in Iran subdued prices. The U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) and the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries increased their outlook for world oil consumption growth, citing
increasing signs of a recovery in the global economy.
• Gold slipped below $1,650 an ounce in thin trading as investors hugged the
sidelines ahead of a G20 meeting which is expected to give clues on currency
policy. Gold suffered technical selling pressure this week, with prices sliding to their
lowest in more than a month at $1,638.82 after breaching a succession of support
levels.
• German industry sees economy growing by 0.7% this year
• Silver USD/t oz 31.18
Upcoming Economic Event s CY13
Date Events
• Feb 20th’13 T-Bill Auction
• Mar’13 CPI figures to be released
• Apr’13 Monetary Policy Statement