Dun&Bradstreet ha publicado un Estudio sobre la Perspectiva del riesgo en la economía mundial para 2017.
Éstas son las principales conclusiones del estudio:
- La recuperación de la recesión de finales de la primera década del 2000 sigue siendo el mayor reto de los últimos tiempos.
- Se ha rebajado la previsión de crecimiento mundial de 2013 debido a la incertidumbre en torno a los indicadores cuantitativos y a los crecientes riesgos políticos, riesgos amplificados sobre los niveles de deuda de la OCDE, y el reequilibrio estructural en los mercados emergentes.
- Más optimismo en cuanto al crecimiento de América del Norte, gracias a un proceso de saneamiento acelerado.
- Además, más optimismo en cuanto a las perspectivas de crecimiento de 2014 a 2017 con respecto a la previsión de comienzos de 2013.
- Sin embargo, todavía hay vientos en contra de la flexibilización monetaria, del reequilibrio fiscal en los EE.UU. y del reequilibrio chino.
D&B's Global Economic Outlook to 2018 (2013 Update)Dun & Bradstreet
Through the analysis of D&B's proprietary business data, this report provides D&B's perspective on global business conditions in 2013, as well as a prediction of what to expect in the coming years.
This report outlines the global macroeconomic trends that are expected to impact businesses over the next five years. Valuable insight includes the challenges of the post-recession recovery, as well as the risks and opportunities facing businesses in established and emerging regional economies.
This monthly briefing highlights that the world economy is expected to improve in 2014; that unemployment rates remain a major challenge; and downside risks to the baseline scenario persist.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
De acuerdo con el último informe difundido por Crédito y Caución, las insolvencias de muchas de las economías europeas se mantendrán muy por encima de los niveles de 2007 en 2014 y 2015.
El panorama económico mundial se ha deteriorado en los últimos seis meses. El ritmo de crecimiento en la zona euro y China ha sido más débil de lo esperado y la intensificación de la crisis geopolíticas referentes a Rusia y al Estado Islámico en Oriente Medio han minado la confianza internacional.
D&B's Global Economic Outlook to 2018 (2013 Update)Dun & Bradstreet
Through the analysis of D&B's proprietary business data, this report provides D&B's perspective on global business conditions in 2013, as well as a prediction of what to expect in the coming years.
This report outlines the global macroeconomic trends that are expected to impact businesses over the next five years. Valuable insight includes the challenges of the post-recession recovery, as well as the risks and opportunities facing businesses in established and emerging regional economies.
This monthly briefing highlights that the world economy is expected to improve in 2014; that unemployment rates remain a major challenge; and downside risks to the baseline scenario persist.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
De acuerdo con el último informe difundido por Crédito y Caución, las insolvencias de muchas de las economías europeas se mantendrán muy por encima de los niveles de 2007 en 2014 y 2015.
El panorama económico mundial se ha deteriorado en los últimos seis meses. El ritmo de crecimiento en la zona euro y China ha sido más débil de lo esperado y la intensificación de la crisis geopolíticas referentes a Rusia y al Estado Islámico en Oriente Medio han minado la confianza internacional.
What is the outlook for the global economy in 2014 and beyond? Get the latest figures and updates on current trends in the first chapter of the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2014: The global economic outlook released on 18 December 2013.
For more information: http://bit.ly/WESP
ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION
This Overview is based on ESADE’s Economic Report, January 2014, produced by the Department of Economics. This article was written by Prof. Josep M. Comajuncosa. The original document was produced with the support of Banc de
Sabadell.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Signature content of MTBiz is its Article of the Month (AoM), as depicted on Cover Page of each issue, with featured focus on different issues that fall into the wide definition of Market, Business, Organization and Leadership. The AoM also covers areas on Innovation, Central Banking, Monetary Policy, National Budget, Economic Depression or Growth and Capital Market. Scale of coverage of the AoM both, global and local subject to each issue.
MTBiz is a monthly Market Review produced and distributed by Group R&D, MTB since 2009.
Global economies are witnessing two-speed recovery with the US economy showing firm signs of recovery, while growth in Euro Area still languishing in sub-optimal territory. Among the Asian economies, growth in Japan and China too continues to remain tepid. We discuss this in detail in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters. In the section on Domestic Trends, we analyze that the economic condition in the present scenario is in greater disarray than it was during the breakout of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, when both government as well as the RBI were quick to respond to the challenges and brought the economy back to recovery path within no time. In Corporate Performance, we examine the sectoral performance in the last fiscal in order to find the sectors which were badly hit in the wake of the current bout of economic crisis. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Agriculture, a traditionally important sector of the Indian economy because of its enormous contribution in being the provider of basic source of livelihood to the most of the population in India. However in the recent past various challenges such as low agricultural yield, declining share of public investment, and lack of technological advancements have plagued the sector. We discuss the sector’s challenges and suggest measures to bolster its output. In the Special Article, we discuss India's deteriorating external position in the last few years, manifesting itself in a steady deterioration in the current account which slipped from a surplus at the start of the last decade to a huge deficit of 4.8 per cent in 2012-13. Bulk of the deterioration in current account is attributable to the sharp rise in merchandise trade deficit over the last decade. Ultimately, for India to contain its current account deficit at a more sustainable level of 2.0-2.5 per cent of GDP, it is essential that we ensure competitiveness of our goods and services, so that our imports are contained and exports boosted.
DESA News is an insider's look at the United Nations in the area of economic and social development policy. The newsletter is produced by the Communications and Information Management Service of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in collaboration with DESA Divisions. DESA News is issued every month.
For more information: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/newsletter/desanews/index.html
The global economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace over the coming two years, but policymakers must ensure that instability in financial markets and underlying fragility in major economies are not allowed to derail growth, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
A more simplified and reader-friendly version of P.K Basu's - India Economic Outlook - 2014. It deduces from past trends and outlines the current economic scenario around the world and its implications on the Indian economy.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
While equity and commodity markets have recovered, it is an almost consensus view that already tepid global economic growth in H2 2015 likely weakened furthered in Q3 and shows few signs of recovering near-term,
Governments, lacking in both leadership and fiscal-reflation headroom, have passed the buck to central banks struggling to hit multiple growth, inflation and financial stability targets.
However, talk of global recession let alone economic collapse is somewhat overdone and I reiterate my long-held view that the global growth story is a cause for concern, not panic (17 December 2014).
What is the outlook for the global economy in 2014 and beyond? Get the latest figures and updates on current trends in the first chapter of the World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2014: The global economic outlook released on 18 December 2013.
For more information: http://bit.ly/WESP
ABOUT THIS PUBLICATION
This Overview is based on ESADE’s Economic Report, January 2014, produced by the Department of Economics. This article was written by Prof. Josep M. Comajuncosa. The original document was produced with the support of Banc de
Sabadell.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Signature content of MTBiz is its Article of the Month (AoM), as depicted on Cover Page of each issue, with featured focus on different issues that fall into the wide definition of Market, Business, Organization and Leadership. The AoM also covers areas on Innovation, Central Banking, Monetary Policy, National Budget, Economic Depression or Growth and Capital Market. Scale of coverage of the AoM both, global and local subject to each issue.
MTBiz is a monthly Market Review produced and distributed by Group R&D, MTB since 2009.
Global economies are witnessing two-speed recovery with the US economy showing firm signs of recovery, while growth in Euro Area still languishing in sub-optimal territory. Among the Asian economies, growth in Japan and China too continues to remain tepid. We discuss this in detail in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters. In the section on Domestic Trends, we analyze that the economic condition in the present scenario is in greater disarray than it was during the breakout of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, when both government as well as the RBI were quick to respond to the challenges and brought the economy back to recovery path within no time. In Corporate Performance, we examine the sectoral performance in the last fiscal in order to find the sectors which were badly hit in the wake of the current bout of economic crisis. The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Agriculture, a traditionally important sector of the Indian economy because of its enormous contribution in being the provider of basic source of livelihood to the most of the population in India. However in the recent past various challenges such as low agricultural yield, declining share of public investment, and lack of technological advancements have plagued the sector. We discuss the sector’s challenges and suggest measures to bolster its output. In the Special Article, we discuss India's deteriorating external position in the last few years, manifesting itself in a steady deterioration in the current account which slipped from a surplus at the start of the last decade to a huge deficit of 4.8 per cent in 2012-13. Bulk of the deterioration in current account is attributable to the sharp rise in merchandise trade deficit over the last decade. Ultimately, for India to contain its current account deficit at a more sustainable level of 2.0-2.5 per cent of GDP, it is essential that we ensure competitiveness of our goods and services, so that our imports are contained and exports boosted.
DESA News is an insider's look at the United Nations in the area of economic and social development policy. The newsletter is produced by the Communications and Information Management Service of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in collaboration with DESA Divisions. DESA News is issued every month.
For more information: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/newsletter/desanews/index.html
The global economy is expected to continue expanding at a moderate pace over the coming two years, but policymakers must ensure that instability in financial markets and underlying fragility in major economies are not allowed to derail growth, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook.
A more simplified and reader-friendly version of P.K Basu's - India Economic Outlook - 2014. It deduces from past trends and outlines the current economic scenario around the world and its implications on the Indian economy.
Standpoint: Global Reflation by Kevin Lings STANLIB
Fears of sustained deflation and stagnant growth in the United States and Europe have been replaced by a more optimistic growth outlook as well as concerns about rising inflation. This has driven developed market equities higher, but also weakened major bond markets.
While equity and commodity markets have recovered, it is an almost consensus view that already tepid global economic growth in H2 2015 likely weakened furthered in Q3 and shows few signs of recovering near-term,
Governments, lacking in both leadership and fiscal-reflation headroom, have passed the buck to central banks struggling to hit multiple growth, inflation and financial stability targets.
However, talk of global recession let alone economic collapse is somewhat overdone and I reiterate my long-held view that the global growth story is a cause for concern, not panic (17 December 2014).
This monthly briefing highlights that anaemic economic recovery is accompanied by tame inflation in developed economies; that GDP growth is stronger than expected in the United States and that currencies in some emerging economies are under pressure again.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
This monthly briefing highlights that emerging economies face renewed financial turbulence, that US economy registered robust GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 and that the last quarter of 2013 revealed a heterogeneous economic performance in the developing world.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_mb.shtml
This report draws on over 10,000 interviews with business leaders as well as economic forecast data to better understand the growth opportunities and challenges facing dynamic companies over the next 12 months.
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
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The world economic picture in 2022 is divided into two distinct halves: the first 6 months of the year and the last 6 months of 2022. Entering the beginning of 2022, the global economy will recover and grow strongly after a year of recession because Covid-19 pandemic. However, since mid-2022, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensified, the combination of China's "Zero Covid" policy slowed down the global economic recovery, increased supply disruptions and pushed up the supply chain. world commodity prices increased sharply. Rising world commodity prices (including oil, food, and food) along with disruptions to the global supply chain increase production costs, causing global inflation to rise rapidly, many countries witnessed record inflation in many years. This has led central banks to implement fast and strong monetary policy tightening to control inflation.
European leaders could be forgiven for feeling they are being besieged from all angles.
From the East, tensions with Russia over Ukraine have echoes of the Cold War, dampening business growth hopes in neighbouring economies and highlighting reliance on Russian natural resources.
If U.S. politics do not derail the recovery, pent-up demand can drive faster economic growth. Fixed-income outflows appear likely to continue, pushing rates higher.
Estudio de pagos de las empresas en España. Tercer trimestre de 2016INFORMA D&B
El retraso medio en los pagos de las empresas españolas sobre los plazos pactados se sitúa en 12,88 días en el tercer trimestre de 2016, según el Estudio sobre Comportamiento de Pagos de las Empresas Españolas* realizado por INFORMA D&B, (compañía de CESCE), líder en el suministro de Información Comercial, Financiera, Sectorial y de Marketing. Esta cifra se recorta tanto respecto al trimestre anterior, 0,59 días, como al mismo periodo de 2015, 3,47 días menos. Se trata de la cifra más baja que se ha registrado hasta el momento, situándose por primera vez por debajo de los 13 días y encadenando cinco trimestres de mínimos históricos.
Estudio de Demografía empresarial: septiembre de 2016INFORMA D&B
Resumen Ejecutivo
Durante los nueve primeros meses del año, los indicadores de demografía empresarial evolucionan favorablemente respecto a 2015. Las constituciones aumentan un 12,17% mientras la inversión un 2,02%. La mortandad empresarial mejora: los Concursos disminuyen en un 17,84% mientras las disoluciones suben ligeramente en un 1,32%.
Las constituciones se sitúan en el nivel más bajo del año con solo 6.405 creaciones, un 12,82% menos que en agosto pero superan en un 5,68% la cifra de septiembre del año pasado. Durante los nueve primeros meses del año, se crearon 79.714 empresas, un 12,17% más que el año pasado.
El capital suscrito en la creación es también el más bajo desde octubre de 2015. Alcanza la cifra de 281.924.996 euros, que supone una disminución del 66,43% respecto a agosto pero un aumento del 3,71% respecto a septiembre del año pasado. En lo
que va de año, la inversión asciende a 4.960.765.516 euros, un 2,02% más que en 2015.
Los datos de constituciones por comunidades en septiembre muestran en cabeza a Cataluña, tanto en número de creaciones (1.420) como en incremento respecto al año pasado (+401; +39,35%). Andalucía registra el segundo aumento respecto a 2015 (+231;+24,87%). Por último, Madrid experimenta el mayor descenso con una disminución de 281 creaciones (-18,56%).
En el cómputo anual, Cataluña destaca por ser la comunidad con mayor número de constituciones (17.418) y registra el mayor aumento respecto al año pasado (+3.343; +23,75%). El aumento está generalizado en casi todas las comunidades, salvo en el País Vasco que sufre una leve disminución (-30;-1,25%).
Estudio de Demografía empresarial: agosto de 2016INFORMA D&B
Resumen ejecutivo:
En agosto, los indicadores de creación de empresas muestran unas evoluciones favorables respecto al año pasado: la creación aumenta un 28,76% y el capital invertido un 187.67%. Por otro lado, tanto los Concursos aumentan un 15,35% como las Disoluciones un 12,29%
En lo que va de año, las constituciones aumentan en un 12,78% y la inversión en capital en un 1,92%. Durante este periodo, los Concursos siguen la tendencia a la baja (-19,64%) mientras las Disoluciones aumentan ligeramente (+1,82%).
En agosto se crearon 7.347 empresas, la cifra más baja del año suponiendo una disminución del 14,80% respecto al mes de julio, pero supera en un 28,76% las del año pasado. Sumando los ocho primeros meses del año, las constituciones ascienden a 73.309, lo que supone un aumento del 12,78% respecto a 2015.
Comportamiento de pago de los países en el Mundo: Análisis de GreciaINFORMA D&B
Gracias a la cobertura mundial de la base DunTrade®, podemos apreciar las diferencias de prácticas de pago entre varios países. En este caso, sobre Grecia
Comportamiento de pago de los países en el Mundo: Análisis de RusiaINFORMA D&B
Gracias a la cobertura mundial de la base DunTrade®, podemos apreciar las diferencias de prácticas de pago entre varios países. En este caso, sobre Rusia
Comportamiento de pagos de las empresas en Europa. Segundo trimestre de 2016INFORMA D&B
La media de Retraso Medio de Pagos europeo del segundo trimestre del año se sitúa en 13,72 días, lo que supone una bajada de 0,40 días respecto al trimestre anterior. El Retraso Medio de Pagos mejora en 6 de los 9 países estudiados este trimestre.
Análisis de pagos en el mundo. Mayo 2016 INFORMA D&B
Gracias a la cobertura mundial de la base DunTrade®, en este análisis se pueden apreciar las diferencias de prácticas de pago entre varios países. Para la comparación de los comportamientos de pago en este análisis se han utilizado dos indicadores: la proporción de pagos puntuales sobre el total y la de pagos que superan los 90 días.
Estudio de Demografia empresarial - Octubre 2015INFORMA D&B
Los datos de demografía empresarial a finales de octubre siguen dos evoluciones distintas. Mientras los datos
de mortandad empresarial se mantienen claramente por debajo del año pasado, confirmando un cambio de ciclo, los
datos de creaciones de empresas se estancan y los de inversión empresarial empeoran.
La disminución de desaparición de empresas se confirma en los primeros ocho meses del año: los Concursos disminuyen un 25,73% y las Disoluciones un 8,46% respecto a 2014. Sin embargo los datos de creación de sociedades no son tan esperanzadores ya que disminuyen tanto la constitución de sociedades en un 0,29% como la inversión en creación en
un 0,53%.
La creación de empresas se concentra principalmente en tres comunidades: Madrid (20,39% del total), Cataluña (20,09% del total) y Andalucía (16,85%).
Madrid sigue liderando la inversión con 27% del total aunque registra una disminución importante (-50,10%) respecto al año pasado. Por otro lado, el País vasco se sitúa en segunda posición gracias a un aumento de un 525% de su inversión. En lo que va de año tres comunidades agrupan el 59,68% del total de inversión del año: Madrid (27%), País Vasco (18,07%), y Cataluña (14,62%).
Los sectores en los que se generan un mayor número de sociedades son Comercio, que acumula el 19,39%, Construcción y Actividades Inmobiliarias con el 16,68% y Servicios Empresariales con el 12,61%.
El sector en el que más se invierte es Construcción y Actividades Inmobiliarias que suma el 39,35% del total, seguido de Intermediación Financiera con el
27,06%.
Estudio Concursos de empresas en España en agosto de 2015INFORMA D&B
202 concursos en agosto,
la cifra más baja desde agosto del 2009,
y 1.294 disoluciones, la cifra la más baja
del año. Si la época estival se caracteriza
por una menor actividad, no explica
totalmente estas cifras que confirman la
tendencia a la baja de los indicadores de
cese empresarial detectados desde el año
pasado.
Estudio Empresarios Individuales: reparto hombres y mujeresINFORMA D&B
Según la base de datos de INFORMA D&B, del conjunto de 1.7 millones de autónomos en actividad, el 65,51 % son hombres y el 34,49% son mujeres.
En cuanto al reparto geográfico, es bastante homogéneo. La mayor tasa de mujeres autónomo se observa en Asturias (38,68% de mujeres) y la peor en Melilla (26,30%). Otras comunidades con poca representación femenina son: Madrid con 30,92% de empresarias individuales o Canarias con 31,82%.
También la presencia de autónomos que sean mujer en Cataluña es inferior a la media nacional con 34,19%. En términos absolutos, las comunidades donde hay más empresarias individuales son: Andalucía (110.921), Cataluña (97.171) y Comunidad Valenciana (75.756).
Estudio Comportamiento de Pagos en Europa - Segundo Trimestre 2015INFORMA D&B
El Retraso Medio de Pagos Europeo del
segundo trimestre se sitúa en 14,84 días,
lo que supone una bajada de 0,12 días
respecto al trimestre anterior. La mejora
de los retrasos de pago se observa en
la mayoría de los países estudiados,
especialmente en Portugal, que reduce
su media de retraso 1,28 días.
Comportamiento de pagos de las empresas en España. Segundo trimestre de 2015INFORMA D&B
El Periodo Medio de Pago alcanzó las cifras más bajas registradas (91 días) durante el primer trimestre de 2014, desde entonces se está estabilizando en 94 días.
El Periodo Medio de Pagos se compone de dos indicadores: el Retraso Medio de Pago y el Plazo Medio Pactado. Tanto
respecto al último trimestre como al año pasado, el Retraso Medio ha ido mejorando, mientras el Plazo Medio Pactado ha aumentado.
Estudio de Demografía Empresarial: junio de 2015INFORMA D&B
El primer semestre confirma la disminución de desaparición de empresas:
los Concursos disminuyen de 23,40% y las disoluciones de 9,99% respecto a 2014. Sin embargo los datos relativos a la creación de empresas empeoran respecto
al año pasado: las creaciones observan un retroceso de 0,84% y la inversión disminuye en 2,17%.
El Número DUNS® es un identificador numérico de nueve dígitos, que proporciona identidad única a cada negocio o empresa, al mismo tiempo que vincula estructuras de familias corporativas.
Estudio demografía empresas Españolas - mayo 2015INFORMA D&B
Las cifras de demografía empresarial
de los primeros cinco meses del
año muestran una disminución de la
desaparición de empresas, los Concursos
y las Disoluciones bajan respecto a 2014:
-23,55% y - 11,01% respectivamente.
Por otro lado, los datos de creaciones
no vuelven a crecer: la creación de
sociedades y la inversión en capital
siguen a la baja con retrocesos de 2,45%
y de 4,22% respectivamente respecto al
año pasado.
La creación de empresas se concentra
principalmente en tres comunidades:
Madrid (20,18% del total), Cataluña
(19,83% del total) y Andalucía (16,77%).
RESUMEN EJECUTIVO
En cuanto a la inversión en capital, las tres
comunidades que agrupan el 61,30% del
total de inversión del año, son: Madrid
(23,24%), País Vasco (22,94% del total),
y Cataluña (15,12%).
Los sectores en los que se generan
un mayor número de sociedades son
Comercio, que acumula el 19,75%,
Construcción y Actividades Inmobiliarias
con el 16,48% y Servicios Empresariales
con el 12,42%.
Los sectores en los que más se invierte
son: Construcción y Actividades
Inmobiliarias que suma el 45,27% del
total, e Intermediación Financiera con el
25,91% del total.
En lo que va de año, Construcción
aumenta tanto el número de creaciones
(+0,42%) como la inversión (+317,83%)
sobre todo debido a la rama Actividades
Inmobiliarias.
Durante ese periodo Comercio se
mantiene en creaciones (+0,25%) e
inversión (+0,05%) respecto al año
pasado.
Las cifras registradas para Industria
son más preocupantes: muestran una
disminución del 11,38% de creación
y del 63,87% de inversión en los cinco
primeros meses del año.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
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Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
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@Pi_vendor_247
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
1. Around the World – Regional Insights, Upgrades and Downgrades
North America (US, Canada) and Mexico n Latin America n Europe n Eastern Europe
and Central Asia n Asia Pacific n Middle East and North Africa n Sub-Saharan Africa
D&B’s Global
Economic Outlook to 2017
2013 Mid-Year Update
2. 2
Global Economic Outlook:
The First Half of 2013
Five years after the beginning of the late-2000s recession,
the global economy remains far from trend growth, making
this recovery the most lengthy of the past century. To put it
in context, of the 132 countries D&B assesses, 94 now rate
worse than at the beginning of 2008; 50 of those countries
rate at least three quartiles lower. In contrast, a mere 17
economies were upgraded over the same period, and only
two ranked more than two quartiles better. This far into
the recovery, one would expect to raise the risk ratings for
most of these countries. However, in the first half of 2013,
D&B downgraded 17 countries (12.9 percent of all countries
covered) and upgraded five (3.8 percent), underscoring the
uncertain outlook.
TABLE 1: REAL GDP BY REGION 2011-2017
Global Risk Insights
n The recovery from the late-2000s recession remains the most challenging in the past century.
n We have downgraded our 2013 global growth forecast due to uncertainty around the windup of quantitative
easing, growing political risks, amplified risks on OECD debt levels, and structural rebalancing in emerging markets.
n We are slightly more optimistic about North America’s growth, thanks to an accelerating healing process.
n Furthermore, we are more optimistic about 2014-to-2017 growth prospects than we were at the start of 2013.
n Nevertheless, headwinds remain in the form of the termination of monetary easing, fiscal rebalancing in the US,
and Chinese rebalancing.
DB is also slightly more pessimistic about global prospects
in 2013, lowering its forecast by 0.2 percentage points (pp)
to 2 percent. Nevertheless, disparities exist across different
regions. North America’s growth prospects are improving,
with a slightly brighter forecast of 2 percent, up from 1.9
percent earlier this year. And despite China’s slowdown,
Asia-Pacific also stands to grow, with a 0.2-pp uptick
in its forecast to 4.1 percent. All other regions received
downgrades: Europe (0.3 percent to 0.1 percent); Latin
America (3.6 percent to 3.1 percent); Eastern Europe and
Central Asia (3.3 percent to 2.7 percent); Middle East and
North Africa (4 percent to 3.2 percent); and Sub-Saharan
Africa (4.6 percent to 4.5 percent).
REAL GDP GROWTH (%) 2011 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F
North America 1.9 2.2 2.0 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.9
Europe 1.6 -0.3 -0.1 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.9
Asia Pacific 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.8
Latin America Caribbean 4.2 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7
Eastern Europe Central Asia 5.5 2.7 2.7 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.2
Middle East North Africa 3.6 4.6 3.2 3.6 4.2 4.1 4.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0
World 2.7 2.1 2.0 2.6 2.9 2.7 3.0
3. 3
In contrast, DB predicts a slightly speedier global recovery
between 2014 and 2017. The global economy is projected
to grow by 2.8 percent over the period, up from a previous
forecast of 2.7 percent but still below long-term trends.
The US is well-positioned to recover from the late 2000s
recession, thanks to its deleveraging process. Partly as a
result, DB’s projected growth rate for North America
between 2014 and 2017 has jumped from 2.3 percent to
2.8 percent. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy also stands to
grow slightly during the same period (4.8 percent to 4.9
percent). The longer-term growth picture is not as bright
for other countries, however: Europe (1.6 percent to 1.5
percent); Eastern Europe and Central Asia (4.3 percent to
3.7 percent); Middle East and North Africa (4.7 percent to
4.1 percent); and Latin America (3.8 percent to 3.5 percent).
Asia-Pacific’s anticipated growth rate remains the same:
3.8 percent.
Reasons for Changes in Our Outlook
Critical elements impacting DB’s economic outlook
over the past six months include:
n Clear and consistent signs that the US private sector is
well-positioned to continue to expand despite policy
headwinds;
n Offsets to the positive signs in the world’s largest
economy, including increased political and social risks;
n Declining (but still-heightened) risks concerning high
debt levels, particularly public sector debt in OECD
countries; and
n Rebalancing in emerging economies.
The economic outlook for North America and some
emerging markets might be more upbeat without lingering
policy uncertainty, especially monetary policy. Central
banks in advanced economies have utilized quantitative
easing (QE) policies alongside record-low interest rates to
help boost growth. While debate surrounds the short-term
success of these policies, their unintended consequences
have raised larger concerns. For instance, excessive risk-
taking has driven enormous amounts of capital into
emerging markets, thereby fuelling asset booms. In
June 2013, US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
said the US intended to phase out its QE program. His
announcement sent global stock markets sinking: the MSCI
Asia Pacific Index, Stoxx Europe 600, and Standard Poor’s
500 index fell by 3.9 percent, 2.6 percent, and 1.4 percent,
respectively. To boot, government bond yields climbed: 10-
year US bonds, Japan’s 10-year bonds, and German bunds
rose 3 basis points (bp), 4 bp, and 9 bp, respectively. And the
price of gold fell below $1,300 per ounce for the first time
since September 2010 (it nearly reached $1,800 per ounce in
October 2012).
The Fed will taper its $85 billion monthly bond-buying
program near the end of 2013 and end it completely in 2014
as the national economy more fully recovers. While similar
programs in Europe and Japan are not expected to end next
year, the Fed’s withdrawal will unsettle markets as liquidity
(the degree to which an asset or security can be bought or
sold in the market without affecting its price) is reduced.
The impacts of this move will be multiple: emerging
markets like Turkey will see bumps in terms of funding their
current account deficits; stock markets and other asset
bubbles, such as housing, could burst; credit growth could
collapse as liquidity declines (Brazil is a prime candidate);
and fluctuating commodity prices. In addition, exchange
rates could become more volatile (exchange rates in
countries with QE programs ensure their currencies remain
artificially weak). Yet another unintended consequence of
QE’s termination could come in the form of capital control
policies that attempt to mitigate the short-term impacts
but nonetheless threaten trade and investment flows.
Political risks also abound, as evidenced by recent large-
scale anti-government demonstrations in Argentina,
Brazil, Egypt (resulting in a military coup against
the democratically elected government), and Turkey.
Additionally, Chilean students have demonstrated, public
sector protests have spread across Romania, Mediterranean
countries have seen widespread demonstrations, and the
Arab Spring continues to ferment. Economic issues are the
primary culprit behind these protests, as austerity measures
and sluggish economic growth widen the gap between
the rich and poor. Perhaps even more important, educated
middle classes raised during the boom to 2008 can no
longer have their expectations met.
4. 4
The Turkish situation stems from deep-rooted divisions
over the country’s direction: whether it should follow
President Mustafa Kemal Atatürk’s legacy of separation of
state and religion or shift to a scenario in which Islam is far
more significant remains a central question. The Turkish
demonstrations and overthrow of Egypt’s democratically
elected Islamist government are just two recent
developments that continue to alienate Muslims from the
democratic process – throughout the Middle East, North
Africa, and the world over. Such alienation could prompt
renewed support for radical Islamists, many of whom lost
support in the Arab Spring. That potential development
would raise political and security risks regionally and
globally, particularly against western targets. Regional
stability in the Middle East and North Africa is paramount
to maintaining downward pressure on oil and energy prices,
not to mention supply chain continuity.
Progress on the Healing Process in
the Advanced Economies
Debt levels in advanced economies became a major risk
issue during the late-2000s recession. Years of cheap credit
led to unsustainable levels of household and corporate
debt, while public sector debt shot up in light of falling tax
revenues and government efforts to hike spending to fuel
economic growth. The healing process is underway, albeit
unevenly (see table for DB’s assessment).
US household debt levels have fallen from a peak of 97.4
percent of GDP in Q2 2009 to 80.1 percent in Q3 2013. UK
household debt levels declined from 108.7 percent of GDP
to 96.8 percent during the same period. In Japan, household
debt dropped from 82.7 percent of GDP in Q2 2009 to 76.7
percent at the end of 2012. In contrast, other countries
have not fared as well. The Netherlands saw household
debt climb from 127.8 percent of GDP in Q1 2009 to 141.2
percent by the end of 2012, and Canada rose from 87.1
percent of GDP in Q1 2009 to 92 percent in Q1 2013.
Progress has been made in non-financial sector corporation
debt: Japan (154.7 percent of GDP in Q1 2009 to 145.6
percent at the end of 2012); Spain (199.1 percent of GDP
in Q1 2009 to 177.9 percent at the end of 2012); and the
UK (118.5 percent of GDP in Q1 2009 to 105.7 percent in
Q1 2013). However, non-financial sector corporation debt
continues to grow alarmingly in other countries such as
France (149.9 percent of GDP in Q1 2009 to 161.1 percent
at the end of 2012). Meanwhile, some countries have seen
greater progress in reducing financial sector debt, including
the US (122.8 percent of GDP in Q1 2009 to 87.2 percent in
Q1 2013) and Germany (123.7 percent of GDP in Q1 2009 to
97.8 percent at the end of 2012). However, Italy and Spain
each saw financial sector debt rise from 90.5 percent of GDP
to 109.1 percent and 109.3 percent of GDP to 118 percent,
respectively, between Q1 2009 and the end of 2012.
Accumulating public sector debt has created the most
concern. While most advanced countries have reduced
public sector debt levels from 2009 peaks, Japan, Spain,
and the UK each tallied levels in 2012 above those recorded
in 2006. Furthermore, many countries boast public sector
debt exceeding 100 percent of GDP, including Italy (124.1
percent), Japan (227.1 percent), the US (108.7 percent),
the UK (110.3 percent), and Greece (156.9 percent). Many
countries have introduced austerity measures to reduce
public debt, resulting in curtailed short-term growth and
rising political tensions.
REGION COUNTRY PROGRESS TREND
North America US
North America Canada
Europe Germany
Europe France
Europe Italy
Europe Spain
Asia Pacific Japan
A
A
A
A
A
G
G
A
G Considerable progress made since 2008
Progress made in past 12 months
Little/some progress made since 2008
Static in past 12 months
Policy gone into reverse in past 12 months
TABLE 2: HEALING PROCESS IN SELECTED ADVANCED ECONOMIES
5. 5
Progress on Restructuring in the
Emerging Markets
Resurgent growth in emerging markets has proved a key
driver of global economic recovery following the late-2000s
recession. However, their success before and after the
recession has masked the need for economic restructuring.
As global growth has struggled, the challenges facing many
emerging markets are all the more apparent and urgent.
Table 3 highlights the limited progress of governments in
emerging markets – of the selected countries, only Mexico
has consistently pressed for reforms in the last six months.
Most Latin American economies have their fair share of
struggles, not limited to achieving foreign exchange (FX)
equilibrium, reducing supply-side bottlenecks, increasing
domestic savings rates, curbing burgeoning current-
account deficits, cooling inflationary pressures, increasing
labor productivity to match real wage growth, reducing
institutional and regulatory impediments in the commercial
environment, and reducing trade protectionism. Mexico
is a notable exception. Despite recent cross-party political
tensions, President Enrique Peña Nieto continues to advance
his “Pact for Mexico,”promising (among other things) to
increase competition within Mexico’s private business
community (particularly the energy, telecommunications,
and broadcast sectors). He has also vowed to improve the
efficiency of state-owned oil firm Pemex by amending
legislation to enable the company to enter into partnerships
with the private sector.
In the Asia-Pacific region, China’s government faces a
number of challenges resulting from recent policies.
The easing of credit conditions during the recession
has produced upstream industrial overcapacity and
a growing real estate bubble. That, in turn, has led to
capital misallocation and other hidden financial threats.
Non-performing loan ratios of 1 percent are significantly
under-provisioned; the maturing of CNY10-20 trillion of
local government financing vehicle loans by 2015 will
strain the financial sector, particularly mid-level banks. In
addition, interest rates are kept artificially low, benefitting
powerful state-owned enterprises and the officials who
control their assets. Meanwhile, India suffers from supply-
side constraints resulting from subsidies and investment
approval processes. Populist economic policies such as
extending a food safety net from 300 million to 800 million
people during the lead-up to the 2014 election will likely
pause, if not reverse progress on restructuring in India.
In the Middle East and North Africa, strong oil revenues
have reduced the pressure for change, while the Arab Spring
has actually encouraged governments to increase their
role in the economy and either suspend or reverse reforms
in some cases. Oil-rich economies face key challenges,
REGION COUNTRY PROGRESS TREND
Latin America Argentina
Latin America Brazil
Latin America Mexico
Eastern Europe
Central Asia
Russian
Federation
Eastern Europe
Central Asia
Kazakhstan
Eastern Europe
Central Asia
Ukraine
Middle East
North Africa
Saudi Arabia
Middle East
North Africa
Iran
Middle East
North Africa
UAE
Asia Pacific China
Asia Pacific India
Sub-Saharan Africa South Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa Nigeria
Sub-Saharan Africa Angola
TABLE 3: RESTRUCTURING PROGRESS IN SELECTED EMERGING
ECONOMIES
R
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
R
R
R
R
R
A
Reversal/no progress since 2008
Progress made in past 12 months
Little/some progress made since 2008
Static in past 12 months
Policy gone into reverse in past 12 months
6. 6
including: developing the non-hydrocarbon economy;
building a private sector independent from government
contracts; reducing government employment; improving
labor productivity; reducing dependency on migrant workers,
particularly in the private sector; building an education
system that meets modern business needs; fully opening the
economy to foreign investment; and achieving international
standards in the legal and regulatory business fields.
Likewise, strong hydrocarbon revenues have reduced
pressure on governments for reform in Eastern Europe and
Central Asia. Russia remains highly dependent on oil and
gas revenue (comprising 50 percent of its federal budget),
even though capital flight is evident. Kazakhstan is also
increasingly dependent on the hydrocarbon sector, while
Ukraine has signed an unconventional gas deal with Royal
Dutch Shell. No progress has been made on banking sector
reform in either country, and household subsidies in Ukraine
continue to distort market prices.
Sub-Saharan Africa has similarly failed to wean itself off
oil revenues, particularly in the second and third largest
economies of Nigeria and Angola. As with other hydrocarbon-
based economies, downward pressure on oil and gas prices
(and therefore revenues) triggered by the US’s shale oil and gas
boom, as well as other new sources of supply, will prompt more
calls for reform. Poor infrastructure also requires attention
across much of the continent. South Africa has attempted to
address the infrastructure issue, though its efforts consistently
fall short of targets.That country must additionally address
labor sector reforms to combat a significant skill shortage,
labor market rigidity, and periodic labor unrest (particularly
involving collective wage bargaining). Both South Africa
(National Development Plan) and Nigeria (The NigeriaVision
20:2020 Plan) have produced long-term plans to address
structural issues facing their economies.
Ten Key Risks Emanating from
the Regions
The DB Overall Global Business Impact Score for July 2013
is 274. Of the top 10 risks facing global business over the
next 18 months, three of the top four involve the US – as
the world’s largest economy, supporting economic recovery
in the US will be critical to fostering global growth. The
greatest risk stems from the transition of US monetary policy.
So far, the transition has resulted in substantial disruption
in global stock, bond, and currency markets (with a score of
45 out of a maximum of 100), either due to poor timing or
ineffective signalling.
The third-place risk (score of 32) involves the political
uncertainty of the US budget deficit. Until resolved, global
markets will be prone to volatility whenever activity in
Washington, DC heats up. Also of concern are US regulators’
attempts to set restrictions on non-US banks under the Dodd-
Frank Act, which could lead to retaliation by the governments
of those banks (score of 30). Escalating tit-for-tat actions
would have serious implications for the global financial
system as well as trade and investment flows.
Other risks warrant attention outside the US. China’s
structural imbalances top the list, resulting in a sharp
correction in home prices and climbing local government
debt credit risk. This constitutes the second most important
risk (score of 33). The corrections would impair China’s
growth, thereby reducing demand across a range of imports
and curtailing global growth.
Meanwhile, the ongoing civil war in Syria has a 70 percent
chance of dividing the country into warlord-led mini-
fiefdoms; some warlords will undoubtedly espouse radical
Islamist sympathies (score of 28). The instability of such
fiefdoms will spread into Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq, creating
further regional instability and pushing oil prices to record
highs. Violence also offers a vital training ground for militant
Islamists, and the fiefdoms may serve as bases from which to
launch attacks on western interests.
7. 7
Other concerning risks include efforts by US courts to force
Argentina to pay $1.3 billion to holdout bond holders who
did not accept the terms of the US’s $100 billion debt default
in 2002 (score of 24). If the courts find against Argentina, it
will be difficult, if not impossible for other deeply indebted
governments to implement any debt write-offs, thus triggering
a global re-pricing of sovereign risk debt and potentially
undermining any further sovereign debt restructuring.
EU governments’failure to continue fiscal rebalancing has
earned a Global Business Impact Score of 24. As a result, the
cost of government borrowing could rise, putting national
budgets under pressure and prolonging any recovery in Europe.
The threat of collapse of the Japanese bond market constitutes
the eighth-highest risk (score of 20).The impact on the
world’s third-largest economy would be two-fold: first, the
government would no longer be able to finance itself; and
second, institutions holding governments, such as banks and
pension funds, would be left with assets of declining value and
a significant capital gap to rebuild.
A disintegration of the Eurozone represents a second threat
facing Europe. Consequently, a 20-percent chance exists of a
major global impact resulting from the political, economic, and
legal chaos in the EU (score of 20).
TABLE 4: TOP 10 RISKS BY DB GLOBAL BUSINESS IMPACT SCORE FOR THE GLOBAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
REGION RISK
LIKLIHOOD
OF EVENT
(%)
GLOBAL
IMPACT
(1-5)
GLOBAL
BUSINESS
IMPACT
SCORE
(1-100)
North America
Transitional phase of US monetary policy results in
substantial disruption in global financial markets
45 5 45
Asia Pacific
Structural imbalances in China result in a substantial
correction in property market prices and local government
debt credit risk
55 3 33
North America
Political standoff over fiscal rebalancing fosters continued
policy uncertainty
40 4 32
North America
US regulatory restrictions on non-US banks sets off
retaliatory measures
50 3 30
Middle East North Africa
Syria breaks up into mini-fiefdoms and violence spreads
into neighboring countries
70 2 28
Latin America
A US Supreme Court ruling against Argentina results in
global re-pricing of sovereign risk
40 3 24
Europe
Deviation from fiscal rebalancing results in rising
government bond yields
60 2 24
Asia Pacific
Japanese government bond market collapse creates
simultaneous fiscal and financial crisis
25 4 20
Europe
A total disintegration of the Eurozone results in political,
economic, and legal chaos across Europe
20 5 20
Latin America Anti-government protests inspired by Brazil spread through
emerging markets, damaging policy stability and global
investor sentiment
30 3 18
8. 8
Finally, a 30-percent chance exists that Brazil’s political
unrest will spread into other emerging markets. Such
turmoil is the result of unfulfilled middle-class aspirations
following the global downturn. While the trigger will likely
be different in each country, the results would be the same:
damaged policy stability, eroded investor confidence, and
new outflows of capital.
Key Observations
n Global rebalancing is underway but medium-term
growth will remain below trend
n The recovery process will not be a straight line and
businesses should be prepared for ups and downs
n The end of quantitative easing programs will bring
further uncertainty, particularly if timed badly or
signaled poorly
n The importance of the recovery becoming embedded
in the US is supported by the DB Global Business
n Impact Scores in relation to the transitory phases of
monetary easing and fiscal rebalancing
n In addition, structural imbalances in China and
other emerging economies require careful attention,
not just for the Chinese economy but for businesses
across the globe
9. 9
Outlook
We expect 2% GDP growth in US in 2013, lower than 2.8%
(recently revised by Bureau of Economic Analysis up from
2.2% for methodological reasons) achieved in 2012 but
higher than in other developed economies, especially
stagnating Europe. Key factors are driving US recovery,
including a rebound in the housing market, surging
home sales and construction, and rising employment.
A healthier corporate sector has also made a difference,
as the high rate of capital investment expansion has
driven optimism about the sustainability of the economic
healing process.
Nevertheless, investment growth has eased in the face
of demand-killing headwinds. The ongoing deleveraging
process and its ensuing constraints on consumer spending
have produced weak internal demand. Externally,
recessionary pressures in Europe and a slowdown in
emerging markets have made an impact. At this stage of
recovery it is critical for the Federal Reserve to correctly
time is moderation of the monthly pace of QE purchases.
Given the state of the US economy, DB expects QE
purchases will continue at the pace of $85 billion a month
until the end of 2013 before tapering starts in the first
half of 2014. However, the exact impact of QE tapering
is subject to considerable political uncertainty over the
appropriate measures and timing of fiscal consolidation.
The US stands out among developed countries with the
deepest financial market in the world, a unique record of
innovation (including the discovery and development of
shale oil, which could make the country the world’s largest
oil producer by 2020), and relatively dynamic demographics
for an OECD country. In a normal recovery cycle, the US
would post real-GDP growth surpassing 3 percent between
2013 and 2015; however, it has trended between 2.7 and
2.9 percent over the past few quarters, due to the unique
properties of the current cycle and the condition of the
public sector. In fact, public sector circumstances may cut
0.5 to 0.7 pp from annual real-GDP growth through 2017.
Fiscal consolidation that involves rising taxes and spending
cuts will be required to cut high public debt (state and
federal debt total 106 percent of GDP). The budget deficit is
also expected to slim in 2013, thanks to higher tax revenue
from a buoyant private sector.
Implications
n The Federal Reserve’s conditions for raising policy
interest rates (an unemployment rate under 6.5 percent
and inflation over 2.5 percent) are unlikely to be met
before Q1 2015
n More fiscal policy standoffs loom, but the household
and business sectors will endure
n In 2017 the NAFTA economy will be at least 10 percent
larger in real terms than in 2012
n US recovery has a positive impact on Canada; any
economic weakness will be due to domestic or
non-US factors
Recommendations
n Prepare to set more generous credit terms for high-
growth sectors in the US economy and in close tempo
with the recovery as credit risk falls
n Consider caution given Canada’s low growth trajectory
and high household debt, as recent export revenue and
housing statistics pose concern
Risk Insights
n US real-GDP growth will oscillate within the 2-3 percent
range from 2013 to 2017
n Healthy corporate finances, rising housing and labor
markets, and pent-up consumer demand will support
stronger growth
n Headwinds remain, including shaky public finances,
slower export growth, and US household deleveraging
n Canada’s high consumer indebtedness and overvalued
housing market leave its economy vulnerable to an
external shock, but US growth should ultimately shield it
n Deteriorating: Canada
n Stable: US
North America and Mexico 2013–17
10. 10
Outlook
DB’s 2013 growth forecast for Latin America has declined
from 3.6 percent to 3.1 percent amid varying deceleration
rates across the region. Sharp first-half declines in output
from Brazil and Mexico – coupled with a weak second-half
outlook hounded by a decelerating Chinese economy –
will contribute to relatively flat real-GDP growth of 3.1
percent, up from 2.9 percent in 2012. As the US recovery
gains traction, Mexico will rebound by 3.2 percent to
3.8 percent between 2014 and 2017. Improved external
conditions and domestic rebalancing augment Brazil’s
growth prospects, expanding by 2.8 percent to 3.5 percent
during the same period.
Meanwhile, persistent political and institutional challenges
have dimmed Argentina’s outlook, as the continued risk of
expropriation and foreign currency imbalances threaten
that country’s business environment. As such, Argentina
will register real-GDP growth of 3 to 3.3 percent between
2014 and 2017. In the short term, external current accounts
will deteriorate as portfolio outflows rise in response to the
tapering of the US QE program. Commodity prices will also
soften, but domestic demand remains strong. Moreover,
moderate depreciation of local currencies underscores the
need for adequate FX buffers, which remain strong with
the notable exception of Argentina. DB projects regional
annual average real-GDP growth to rebound to 3.5 percent
between 2014 and 2017. Downside risks could come in the
form of inadequate policy reforms, external price shocks,
and domestic supply constraints.
As inflationary pressures cool (with Brazil, Argentina, and
Venezuela being notable outliers), DB expects interest
rates to remain relatively low in Mexico, Chile, and
Colombia in the short term. The lagged effect of higher
government spending, particularly on infrastructure
and mega-projects in the second half of 2013, will finally
hit home in 2014. On a positive note, Chile, which is
experiencing moderate growth, will record real-GDP
growth of 4.5 percent during the forecast period.
Implications
n Brazil’s anti-government protests could ignite similar
action across the region, impairing business operations.
Elevated political risks persist in Venezuela and Argentina
through 2015 due to stubborn shortages in basic items,
spiraling inflation, and other unmet socio-economic needs
n Rapidly falling foreign reserves (20 percent year-over-
year in the first half of 2013) in Argentina will prompt
more stringent exchange controls that further restrict
repatriation of profits and dividends. In addition, despite
recent FX auctions, dollar-availability will remain low
in Venezuela
n Lower demand from major emerging markets and easing
of commodity prices will take some of the shine off the
region’s natural resources sector through at least 2015
Recommendations
n Tighter exchange controls could make repatriation of
profits and dividends more difficult, particularly from
Argentina and Venezuela. Expect trade relations with
regional partners to deteriorate as a consequence
n Secure cover against expropriation and political risks.
Include international arbitration clauses in contracts
with local governments and business entities
n Watch for new investment opportunities in
infrastructure development and the telecommunications
and energy sectors in Mexico, given the government’s
reform agenda aimed at encouraging greater private
sector investment/participation
Risk Insights
n Lower commodity prices and softer domestic demand
dampen second-half 2013 prospects, but regional
growth will average 3.5 percent from 2014 to 2017
as external conditions improve
n Portfolio outflows will rise as the US tapers its QE program,
further weakening current account balances and local
currencies. Foreign reserves remain generally robust
n Growing public protests against unmet socio-economic
needs keep political risks elevated in major regional
economies
n Deteriorating: Argentina and Venezuela
n Stable: Chile
Latin America 2013-17
11. 11
Outlook
Europe’s risk outlook depends largely on the resolution
of the ongoing Eurozone crisis. Given the close economic
links between the Eurozone and non-Eurozone Europe
(in addition to North Africa and Eastern Europe), the
crisis in the common currency area will continue to
influence regional and global growth over the next few
years. Encouragingly, DB expects no Eurozone breakup
in the forecast period; on the contrary, policymakers will
likely introduce much-needed reforms of the EU’s legal
framework in 2013. Nevertheless, implementation risks
are high, due in part to elections in Austria and Germany
in 2013. If member states and the EU cannot agree on
treaty changes, the Eurozone could at least partially
disintegrate between 2013 and 2014. The region, and
potentially the global economy, would consequently fall
into a severe prolonged recession.
DB also expects continued austerity measures in
countries such as Greece, Italy, and Spain over the next
few years. France, Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands
will additionally reduce government spending and/
or raise taxes in 2013 to meet deficit targets laid out in
European or national law. This will weigh on the region’s
growth potential and lead to a period of higher payment
and credit risks. The EU should move toward trend growth
after 2014 if these painful, but necessary, measures are not
abandoned by newly elected governments. Growth will
also come if the EU implements a new fiscal framework
and the European Central Bank follows through on its
already-announced supportive monetary policy. Overall,
DB expects Europe’s real-GDP to grow by an average
1.5 percent over 2014 to 2017, after contracting by 0.1
percent in 2013.
Implications
n Economic growth will be uneven; growth in Northern
Europe (i.e., Germany and Sweden) will be higher than
in Southern Europe (i.e., Italy and Portugal); however,
growth is likely to be exposed to severe downside risks
in better-performing countries
n Uncertainty stemming from the Eurozone crisis and
the questionable survival of the common currency will
impact the exchange rate and threaten further volatility
n Currencies of countries like Norway, Sweden, and
Switzerland will remain under appreciation pressure,
arising from safe-haven investment inflows from the
Eurozone
n If much-needed reforms are not implemented in
due time and/or national governments abandon the
austerity path (a precondition for financial help from
donor countries such as Austria, Finland, Germany, and
Luxembourg), a breakup of the Eurozone is the most
likely outcome
n Beyond 2017, poor demographic development
undermines growth prospects, but rule of law and
the quality of infrastructure remain world-class
Recommendations
n Between 2013 and 2014, companies doing business in
the fragile peripheral economies of the Eurozone should
expect a higher frequency of payment delays and might
consider tighter trade terms
n Although it is not DB’s core scenario, a breakup of the
Eurozone cannot be ruled out. DB advises businesses to
stay out of Greece until late 2014 at the earliest
n Make decisions based on low growth between 2013
and 2014 and stronger growth between 2015 and 2017.
Of course, this scenario is subject to politicians’ ability
to save the Eurozone
Risk Insights
n The regional risk outlook depends on future developments
in the Eurozone crisis
n Positively, no breakup of the European area is anticipated
in the forecast period
n However, the region will experience below-trend growth
in 2013 and very uneven growth until 2017
n Payment and credit risk will remain elevated until
at least 2014, especially in southern European
member states
n Deteriorating: France, Belgium, Cyprus, Netherlands,
Spain (12 out of 30 in total)
n Improving: Romania, Slovenia, Iceland
Europe 2013–17
(EU + Iceland, Norway and Switzerland)
12. 12
Outlook
International market conditions that supported this
region during the first half of 2013 turned sour upon the
Federal Reserve’s decision to taper QE. Changing market
sentiments produced a drop in market capitalization
(reflecting capital outflows to the safe haven) and
depreciation of major currencies such as those in Russia,
Turkey, and Kazakhstan. Another consequence is widened
credit-default swap spreads. That development especially
damaged Ukraine after it refused IMF funding and instead
tapped international markets to cover its high financing
needs. Falling commodity prices have additionally plagued
Ukraine’s current account deficit. The capital outflow will
likely continue, although countries like Kazakhstan are
better endowed with foreign direct investment (FDI) than
portfolio investments to weather the downturn.
Europe’s bumpy recovery and China’s deceleration
will weigh on the region through trade and depressed
commodity prices, oil prices being one exception.
Anticipated to stay above $100 per barrel during the
forecast period, oil prices will support Kazakhstan,
Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Russia.
Domestic demand, a driving force of post-crisis
growth, will weaken for various reasons in European
Commonwealth of Independent States countries but
remain buoyant in Central Asia. Furthermore, growth in
Russia’s systemic regional economy will decelerate owing
to internal imbalances, particularly under-investment in
non-energy sectors. Slowing Russian growth will further
block growth through trade and FDI flows in most countries
throughout the region. Moreover, Kyrgyz Republic and
Tajikistan will see remittance inflows weaken.
Finally, Turkey’s political tensions will continue to
undermine the risk outlook. Bureaucracy, rampant
corruption, weak contract enforcement, and politically
biased judicial systems persist in hampering the region’s
trade and commercial environment.
Implications
n Easing inflation will enable some monetary loosening
in Russia, which, together with measures to improve the
business climate, may provide some support for growth.
Nevertheless, supply constraints will limit potential
growth at around 3 percent
n The availability of credit in Kazakhstan and Ukraine
will remain poor
n Reinforced capital control measures in Ukraine will
lift the immediate pressure on FX reserves, but offer
no long-term solution for the country’s current
account crises
Recommendations
n Downside risks for doing business in the region prevail;
different combinations of downside risks in different
locations require an in-depth assessment of particular
countries (and particular industries therein).
n Hedging against the volatility of some local currencies
should be considered
n Strict trade terms are recommended when doing
business with counterparties in the region; cash in
advance is DB’s recommended trade policy in the
majority of countries
n Adequate political risk-trade credit insurance should
be considered
Risk Insights
n Resumption of structural reforms is urgently required
to ensure more robust growth in the region
n External factors will keep economic growth below
the pre-crisis level
n Russia’s slowdown worsens the outlook for the
majority of regional economies
n Easing inflation will provide some support to
domestic demand
n Risk of doing business remains high across the region
n Improving: Turkmenistan
n Deteriorating: Azerbaijan, Belarus, Tajikistan, Turkey,
Ukraine
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
2013–17
13. 13
Outlook
India, China, and Japan – the region’s three key low-, mid-,
and high-income economies – all approach the limits of
their existing business and policy models. Deep changes
are necessary to stopping cyclical and structural problems
from spurring volatility in output, price, and asset markets.
Such a result could scar public finances, productivity, and
confidence during the forecast period. So far, reforms are
uneven. Meanwhile, smaller economies face a number of
threats, including: stalled or lower merchandise growth;
monthly uncertainty over the trajectory of liquidity provision
by central banks; and risk of an unwinding of any asset and
credit bubbles triggered by confidence shocks to currencies
and export markets.
Three important changes impacted the region during the first
half of 2013. First, a concerted policy easing of the Japanese
government and central bank has dropped the yen back
to pre-crisis levels against the US dollar, inflating Japanese
asset prices. Second, China is approaching sub-8 percent
real-GDP growth as that country suffers from severe capital
misallocation, spiralling property market speculation, opaque
datasets, and hidden problem loans that are significant on a
macroeconomic level. Third, smaller economies with shallow
FX and local capital markets (including India) have changed
their sentiment and policy stances. Instead of battling
financial inflows and currency appreciation, they are now
raising interest rates and defending exchange rates with FX
reserves and transfer regulations.
Policymakers have predominantly been spared from non-FX
supply shocks (where prices rise, output falls, and monetary
policy cannot help) in most countries. The absence of tightness
in commodity markets, given the net commodity importer
status of many Asian countries, is most likely a positive
indicator. India, with inflation nearing 10 percent and the
rupee at INR60 per US dollar, requires a mildly disinflationary
global environment. Meanwhile, the muted outlook for
commodity pricing will weigh on Australia and Indonesia’s
export earnings and reduce regional mining project pipelines
over the medium term. However, the diverging resource boom
is a welcome relief for Australia’s other sectors, and Indonesia
enjoys sufficient sources of demand growth.
In spite of weathering the trade slowdown, more serious
challenges are imminent for the region. China and South
Korea’s household and business sectors are highly leveraged, at
170 percent and 200 percent of GDP, respectively, close to pre-
crisis European levels. Singapore meanwhile suffers steadily
falling productivity. Its four Southeast Asian neighbors could
see more than $100 billion in net portfolio inflows since 2009
reverse. And falling producer prices in Southeast Asia, China,
and South Korea in Q2 2013 hint at continued overcapacity.
Implications
n China faces a high probability of sub-7 percent annual
growth from 2014, as credit risks from manufacturing
increase and CNY3.5 trillion in local government debt
matures in 2015
n Consumer and business confidence in Japan are improving
as the Bank of Japan’s policy activism affects the yen and
inflation expectations; but growth will fall in 2014
n India is mired in political and institutional barriers to
pro-growth structural adjustment
Recommendations
n Services and household-oriented sectors still offer growth
prospects until at least 2014
n Watch your customer base and supply chains for signs of
change in market sentiment—as “crash”phases unwind
faster than “bubble”phases grew—once market agents
realign.
Risk Insights
n China’s opaque financial system, industrial overcapacity,
and property market bubble threaten a stable real-GDP
growth path surpassing 6 percent a year between 2014
and 2017
n Japan’s monetary experiment will bring a short-term
stimulus, but solutions to its fiscal and demographic
challenges after 2014 remain remote
n The region’s domestic demand drivers have survived
Chinese deceleration and Eurozone stresses, but a
post-QE global environment could rock credit and
asset markets.
n Deteriorating: China, India, Singapore
n Stable: Japan, New Zealand, Philippines
Asia/Pacific 2013–17
14. 14
Outlook
Political and security issues across the Middle East and
North Africa continue to dominate the risk environment
against the uncertain short-term global economic outlook.
DB expects that position to worsen over the next year,
with most countries suffering to some degree from the
impact of the Arab Spring. The risk outlook is further
undermined by continuing uncertainty in neighboring
Europe, which is curtailing trade, investment, and migrant
job opportunities. Furthermore, flat oil prices will limit
growth in the next three years. Most economies will
fall far short of achieving full growth potential, owing
to a failure to address impediments to the commercial
environment, such as corruption and a weak legal and
regulatory atmosphere.
Countries poised to see strong growth include Iraq
(average annual growth of 9.5 percent between 2013 and
2017) and Libya (average annual growth of 7.9 percent
between 2013 and 2017) as both emerge from conflict.
Government spending of hydrocarbon revenues will boost
growth in the oil-rich Arabian peninsula (Kuwait, Saudi
Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman).
Implications
n Tighter international sanctions against Iran will
undermine the economic outlook and expected returns
from trade and investment in the short term
n Instability in Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Syria, and
Yemen will be significant, while Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan,
and Tunisia will experience elevated instability
n However, business opportunities will increase over the
forecast period in conflict-transition countries such as
Egypt, Iraq, Libya, and Syria
n Furthermore, construction and service companies in
oil-rich countries will benefit from strong government
spending
n DB expects payment performance in government-
related companies in oil-rich countries to deteriorate.
In turn, this will impact cash flow, payment performance,
profits, and bankruptcies in the private sector
n Slower growth in oil-rich countries means slower
investment, remittances, aid, and trade flows to oil-
poor countries, undermining growth; however, these
countries will see lower import bills as energy costs fall
Recommendations
n Companies dealing with firms based in Algeria, Bahrain,
Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Syria, and Yemen
should exercise extreme caution, owing to the weak and/
or deteriorating political and commercial risk outlook
n In view of the increase in international sanctions
targeting the financial and hydrocarbon sectors, DB
advises customers to remain vigilant toward companies
with ties to Iran
n Increase monitoring on the payment performance of
government-related businesses in oil-rich states as
governments delay payments
n Opportunities in the upstream and downstream
hydrocarbon sectors and in infrastructure development
will be available in the oil-rich countries
Risk Insights
n Extreme political and commercial risks face Egypt,
Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, and are elevated in Algeria,
Bahrain, Jordan, Lebanon, and Libya
n Strong hydrocarbon revenues will impede governments
from addressing fundamental structural issues needed
to improve the business environment
n The commercial environment will remain challenging
in most countries
n Opportunities exist in infrastructural development in
oil-rich economies
n Deteriorating: Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Kuwait, Lebanon,
Morocco, Tunisia
n Improving: United Arab Emirates (UAE)
Middle East and North Africa 2013–17
15. 15
Outlook
Sub-Saharan Africa is poised for healthy growth in the
near term. While the region’s growth in 2013 is expected
to outpace 2012, significant acceleration that had been
anticipated will not come anytime soon. As headwinds
diminish in 2014 and global economic expansion gains
traction, demand for sub-Saharan Africa’s exports will
pick up through the forecast period. However, China’s
slowdown tops the list of immediate threats to regional
growth. In particular, exporters of non-oil commodities
will see a sizable reduction in earnings as global prices
weaken in response to waning demand in China.
DB forecasts the price of oil will weaken marginally
in 2013 before picking up in 2014. Oil exporters are
therefore slightly better positioned than other exporters.
Nonetheless, the US shale oil boom poses a growing risk
that could harm crude prices and export volumes.
Despite solid regional growth, the country-to-country
outlook varies significantly. South Africa’s economy – the
largest in the region – faces deceleration and a pessimistic
outlook. In addition to a sluggish Chinese economy
weighing on demand for the country’s resources, it faces
a number of domestic problems, including labor disputes.
Kenya’s outlook has improved, by contrast, and political
stability is expected to drive growth following largely
peaceful elections earlier in 2013.
Implications
n Sub-Saharan Africa’s fiscal position remains satisfactory,
but countries need to exercise fiscal discipline to
maintain adequate buffers, especially in the event of
protracted weakness in commodity prices
n Global risk aversion toward sovereign debt will also
put pressure on African governments to improve their
budget positions
n On the other hand, capital inflows looking for higher
returns than in developed markets could increase the
debt burden for countries over the long term, raising
external financing risks
n In recent months, a number of the regional frontier
economies have issued international sovereign bonds.
This signals that the global investment community
remains optimistic about the region’s growth potential
n Governments need to ensure that obtained funding is
put to the most rewarding use and does not jeopardize
the countries’ long-term debt sustainability
n DB recommends using such funds for building
much-needed critical infrastructure, particularly in
sectors not related to commodity extraction
Recommendations
n Despite near-term volatility, commercial opportunities
in businesses in the commodities sector will remain
strong throughout the period
n However, investors should be aware of the possibility
of forced contract renewals as governments attempt to
maximize short-term returns in this sector
n Building domestic contacts can help offset the
challenging business environment.
n Companies should take out adequate security and
political risk insurance coverage
Risk Insights
n The slowdown of the Chinese economy will weigh
on commodity prices and moderate regional growth,
particularly in countries dependent on non-oil exports
n Energy exporters face less threat, but need to be wary
of the shale oil boom in the US and its impact on
demand for African crude
n Inflationary pressures are subsiding across most of
the region as favorable harvests have cooled food price
inflation. Fiscal challenges remain manageable.
n Deteriorating: South Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia
n Improving: Nigeria, Angola, Kenya
Sub-Saharan Africa 2013–17