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Flash comment
    Economic commentary by Economic Research Department                                                               August 9, 2011


  Latvia: GDP growth slowed in 3Q 2011

   GDP real growth, %                                    According to the flash estimate by Latvian Central Statistical
                                                         Bureau, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.3% QoQ in
     15                                                  the third quarter of 2011. The quarterly growth decelerated from
     10                                                  2% in the 2Q 2011, mostly because of slowing manufacturing (to
                                                         1.1%from 7.5% in 2Q) and exports. However, retail trade
      5
                                                         developments (acceleration to 5.7% from 2.9%) suggested that
      0
                                                         household consumption is strong. Households’ optimism is stable
     -5                                                  due increasing employment and wage incomes while deposits
    -10                                                  stock does not change.
    -15
                                                         In annual terms, the economic growth picked up to 5.7% (not
    -20
                                                         seasonally adjusted).
    -25
       1Q 07            1Q 09           1Q 11            We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 4.2% for this year.
                 Quarterly (sa)                          The impact of recent developments in euro zone on Latvian
                 Annual (nsa)         Source: CSBL       economic growth is still unclear, but we foresee that GDP growth to
                                                         slow while the growth in major European economies remains week.




                                                                                                                     Dainis Stikuts
                                                                                                                 Senior Economist
                                                                                                                  + 371 6744 5844
                                                                                                      dainis.stikuts@swedbank.lv




Swedbank Economic Research Department      Flash comment is published as a service to our customers. We believe that we have used
                                           reliable sources and methods in the preparation of the analyses reported in this publication.
SE-105 34 Stockholm, Sweden
                                           However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the report and cannot be
ek.sekr@swedbank.com
                                           held responsible for any error or omission in the underlying material or its use. Readers are
www.swedbank.com
                                           encouraged to base any (investment) decisions on other material as well. Neither
                                           Swedbank nor its employees may be held responsible for losses or damages, direct or
Legally responsible publisher
                                           indirect, owing to any errors or omissions in Flash comment.
Cecilia Hermansson, +46 8 5859 7720

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Flash Comment: Latvia - November 9, 2011

  • 1. Flash comment Economic commentary by Economic Research Department August 9, 2011 Latvia: GDP growth slowed in 3Q 2011 GDP real growth, % According to the flash estimate by Latvian Central Statistical Bureau, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.3% QoQ in 15 the third quarter of 2011. The quarterly growth decelerated from 10 2% in the 2Q 2011, mostly because of slowing manufacturing (to 1.1%from 7.5% in 2Q) and exports. However, retail trade 5 developments (acceleration to 5.7% from 2.9%) suggested that 0 household consumption is strong. Households’ optimism is stable -5 due increasing employment and wage incomes while deposits -10 stock does not change. -15 In annual terms, the economic growth picked up to 5.7% (not -20 seasonally adjusted). -25 1Q 07 1Q 09 1Q 11 We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 4.2% for this year. Quarterly (sa) The impact of recent developments in euro zone on Latvian Annual (nsa) Source: CSBL economic growth is still unclear, but we foresee that GDP growth to slow while the growth in major European economies remains week. Dainis Stikuts Senior Economist + 371 6744 5844 dainis.stikuts@swedbank.lv Swedbank Economic Research Department Flash comment is published as a service to our customers. We believe that we have used reliable sources and methods in the preparation of the analyses reported in this publication. SE-105 34 Stockholm, Sweden However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the report and cannot be ek.sekr@swedbank.com held responsible for any error or omission in the underlying material or its use. Readers are www.swedbank.com encouraged to base any (investment) decisions on other material as well. Neither Swedbank nor its employees may be held responsible for losses or damages, direct or Legally responsible publisher indirect, owing to any errors or omissions in Flash comment. Cecilia Hermansson, +46 8 5859 7720