Aunque soy co-autor de este trabajo, el mismo fue presentando por mi buen amigo de INETER: Alex Castellón.

1. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Using satellite based rainfall estimates for
early warning on landslides and inundations
in Central America
Steffen Schillinger Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR), Hannover, Germany,
Project on Georisks in Central America, with INETER, Managua Nicaragua
Email: steffen.schillinger@bgr.de
Wilfried Strauch on leave from Instituto Nicaraguense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER),
Recent Address: Project on Georisks in Central America, BGR-INETER
INETER, Managua, Nicaragua, Email: wilfried.strauch@yahoo.com
Vladimir Gutiérrez Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER), Managua, Nicaragua,
Recent address: Technical University of Madrid (UPM),
Email: vladimir.gut@gmail.com
Hurricane Mitch Landslide at Casita volcano Inundations
(Oct. 1998) (triggered by heavy rains, 2000 killed) (1700mm rain in 5 days)
Photos taken from the newspaper El Nuevo Diario, Managua, Nicaragua, November 1, 1998
Nicaragua – Lakes and Volcanoes

2. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Landslide Hazard and Risk
in Central America
Landslide
Hazard
Risk
death/year/km2
Population
density
From: Nadim, F., O. Kjekstad, P. Peduzzi, C. Herold, C. Jaedicke
(2006), Global landslide and avalanche, hotspots, J. Landslides,
3(2), 159–173, doi:10.1007/ s10346-006-0036-1.

3. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
From: Devoli , Morales & Høeg (2006) Historical landslides in Nicaragua—collection and analysis of data, Landslides, DOI 10.1007/s10346-006-0048-x
Trigger phenomena
Type of landslide
Occurrence over the year Damage caused
Characterization of 135 historical landslides in Nicaragua, 1800-1990
main hurricane and
raining season

4. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Strong and/or long lasting rains trigger landslides
Extreme example: Hurricane Mitch, Nicaragua, October 30, 1998
“Normal” example: Landslides due to tropical storms during rainy season
2 km
15 km
2 villages annihilated
More than 2000 people died
Honduras, Sept.2008

5. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
From: Devoli , Strauch , Chávez , Høeg (2007) A landslide database for Nicaragua: a tool for landslide-hazard management,
Landslides DOI 10.1007/s10346-006-0074-8
Recent Landslides
Inventory of Nicaragua
About 17,000 events
Most of these events
occurred during hurricane
Mitch in 1998 !

6. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Met station -
Precipitation data
Monitoring
software
-
Verification
Field visits or reports
from local population
In some cases - real time verification possible
with seismic stations near the gullies
Mapping of impact
If precipitation > trigger level
-> Alert
Solution works but…
Problem:
In case of local rains -
data of met station are
representative only for a
small area. e.g. for one side
of a volcano. Too many
stations would be necessary
for an operative system
First Trial: Pilot project INETER-NGI, 2000-2004
Early Warning with meteorological stations, in volcanoes

7. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
PRO: -Near real time data
CON: -Station density is far too low to permit
reliable detection of high precipitation
in areas under landslide risk
There are no met radars in Nicaragua or Central America
Landslide map
Nicaraguan Meteorological Network

8. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Solution :
Hydroestimator -
Precipitation estimate from GOES Met satellite
• NOAA/NESDIS calculates twice per hour precipitation estimates
• Precipitation is determined in near real time for 4x4 km pixels
• These data are available from:
ftp://www.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/smcd/emb/f_f/hydroest/grads/centralamerica
• Several authors have investigated the usefulness of the method for
landslide early warning

9. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
The precipitation rates were obtained
from a fit between instantaneous radar
derived rainfall estimates and satellite
measurements of IR brightness
temperatures at cloud top.
The relationship has been computed
using 4-Km resolution pairs of GOES-8 IR
images and collocated instantaneous
radar rainfall estimates from the US
operational network of 5 and 10 cm radar
(WSR-57S, WSR-74C, WSR-88D) in the
central Great Plains and the areas
adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico.
Background of Hydroestimator:
Relation between upper cloud temperature from GOES IR images
and precipitation rate
The result of the comparison between the mean radar-derived estimates for each one
degree temperature intervals from 195 K to 260 K is shown in the figure.
From: Vicente, G.A. Scofield R. A. and Menzel, W.P. (1998) The Operational GOES Infrared Rainfall Estimation Technique, edition of the
Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, September 1998

10. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
“The satellite estimates showed that the
heaviest rainfall occurred October 31
when outer convective bands from Mitch
interacted and merged with the
orographic produced convection
that was already present in northwest
Nicaragua. Accumulation of 3-day totals
indicates that the heaviest rains
occurred over Nicaragua with
precipitation amounts maximum of
1400 mm (55 inches).”
From: Ferraro, R., G. A. Vicente, M. Ba, A. Gruber, R. Scofield, Q. Li and R. Weldon (1999) Satellite Techniques Yield Insight
into Devastating Rainfall from Hurricane Mitch. EOS, Transaction, AGU, Vol. 80, No. 43, 10/26/1999, 512-514.
Application of Hydroestimator to Hurricane Mitch data
Location of Casita Volcano
– Disaster on October 30, 1998
2000+ killed
Comparison with precipitation recorded
by INETER met stations:
Chinandega 1,613 mm
León 1 ,113mm
Masatepe 663mm
Managua 545mm
Rivas 495mm

11. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Global rainfall intensity-duration curve
for triggering landslides
From: Hong Y., Adler R.E., Huffmann G.J. (2007). Satellite Remote Sensing, for Global Landslide
Monitoring, Eos, Vol. 88, No. 37, 11 September 2007

12. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Application : Generation of interactive precipitation maps (author: St. Schillinger)
Nesessary software: ArcGIS 9.3 y VS2008, ArcSDE, Arc server
Functions:
•Download hourly precipitation data from NESDIS/NOAA (in GrADS format);
•Archive original data
•Convert data to ESRI raster format;
•Archive data in a raster catalogue of an ArcSDE geodatabase;
•Calculate sums of 3, 6, 24 hours, 2, 3, 7 days
•Archive results in standardized GeoTiff, PNG formats;
•Get the online data from INETER´s Met Network
•Create an interactive map for ArcGis Server with the precipitation rasters
including met station data
•Publish interactive map with ArcGis Server
Development of applications for the use of Hydroestimator

13. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Client Application – Selection of the rain accumulation period
www.georiesgos-ca.info

14. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Client Application– Access to the data base of INETER´s met stations
www.georiesgos-ca.info

15. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Client Application–automatic classification of precipitation
www.georiesgos-ca.info

16. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Client Application– Obtain precipitation estimate for a certain site
www.georiesgos-ca.info

17. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Application: Early warning for landslide sites (author: W.Strauch)
Nesessary software: GrADS and other free software components
Functions:
•Download hourly precipitation data from NESDIS/NOAA (in GrADS format);
•Archive original data
•Determine precipitations for a list of landslide sites
for testing: (1) sites of known landslides in Nicaragua
(2) sites of the Central American Volcanoes
•If accumulated precipitation surpasses a trigger level –
-> generate an email message
•Send the email to a list of recipients
•Generate precipitation maps in GIF format (local, national, regional)
•Generate GIF animation of precipitation in the last 24 hours
•Transfer GIF maps and animation to Web server for publication
Development of applications for the use of Hydroestimator

18. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Regional GIF animation using
original NESDIS files
Local map with numeric precipitation values
Precipitation map for Nicaragua

19. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Monitored landslide sites in Nicaragua
Example of alert message:
Alerta para Coordenadas: -87.0064 12.7017 Sitio: Mocorón, Municipio : Chinandega
2008/09/29 04:00 Precipitación de 38.4 mm en 1 hora(s) sobrepasa el umbral de 10.5 mm
Aumenta la posibilidad de deslizamientos en la zona!
Example of output list of early warning application:
Long_W Lat_N Ubicación Municipio
0 mm at -86.3092 11.9923 Carretera,_entrada_a_El_Crucero EL_CRUCERO
0 mm at -86.3111 11.9634 Carretera_El_Crucero-San_Rafael EL_CRUCERO
0 mm at -86.4757 11.9439 Comunidad_Las_Cañas VILLA_EL_CARMEN
2 mm at -86.3514 12.2366 Peninsula_de_Chiltepe MATEARE
2 mm at -86.3316 12.2492 Peninsula_de_Chiltepe_MATEARE
0 mm at -86.9148 12.6795 El_Higueral CHINANDEGA
9 mm at -86.9148 12.6795 San_Lucas CHINANDEGA
38.4 mm at -87.0064 12.7017 Mocorón CHINANDEGA
7 mm at -87.0064 12.7017 Las_Rojas CHINANDEGA
6 mm at -87.0064 12.7017 Las_Banderas CHINANDEGA
5 mm at -87.0064 12.7017 La_Laguna CHINANDEGA
0 mm at -87.0064 12.7017 San_Rafael CHINANDEGA
...
...

20. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Central American active volcanoes monitored
At the moment the list contains
one site per volcano. In future it will
be extended to contain the
different gullies of each volcano
where landslides (lahars) are
frequent.

21. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Application of method during Hurricane Felix, September 2007
The hurricane was monitored with the
system while crossing Nicaragua. It was
observed that the precipitations in the
mountainous areas did not surpass the
levels to trigger landslides. Thus, it was
not necessary to declare high alert levels.

22. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Application for Assessment of Flash flood
in Matagalpa, October 17, 2007

23. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Flash flood in the city of Matagalpa
17 october, 2007, 18:00 local time
7 killed
Inundation map
Sequence of precipitation images showing
the strong rain which caused the flooding

24. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Results:
1. Satellite based precipitation monitoring for Central America in place;
2. Webmapping service for precipitation maps in place;
3. Experimental early warning system for selected sites in place;
4. Asessment of landslide and inundation occurrence carried out for some events.
Future plans:
1. Compilation of lists of landslide sites for each Central American country
and integration in the early warning procedure;
2. Investigation of landslide occurrence and corresponding precipitations;
3. Determination of local rainfall intensity-duration curves for triggering landslides
for different site classes (geology) in Central America;
4. Information and training to emergency commissions and local authorities
about the use of warning messages;
5. Development of early warning system on inundations.
Results and future plans

25. Cartography and Geoinformatics for Early Warning and Emergency Management: Towards Better Solutions – Prague , 19-22 January 2009
Schillinger, Strauch &Gutiérrrez: Using satellite based rainfall estimates for early warning on landslides and inundations in Central America
Thank You !
This work is developed in the frame of the projects “Mitigation of Georisks in Central
America” with funding from the governments of Germany and Central American
countries and “Early Warning of Landslides in Nicaragua “with funding from the
Norwegian government. The specific tasks for this paper were carried out in
cooperation beween BGR (Hannover,Germany) , INETER (Managua, Nicaragua), with
support from NGI(Oslo, Norway).
www.georiesgos-ca.info
www.georiesgos-ca.info