Deal Analysis – Priceline’s
Acquisition of Kayak
USC EMBA San Diego – 2013


                              Your Logo
Who are these guys?




   •   Founded in 1997             • Founded in 2004
   •   Online Travel Agent (OTA)   • Metasearch engine
   •   “Name Your Own Price”       • 133 employees
   •   William Shatner             • $224.5M (2011 revenue)
   •   5,000 employees                • 55% from advertising
   •   $4,355.6M (2011 revenue)       • 45% from supplier &
         • Commissions                   OTA referral fees
         • Managed inventory       • 53% of US metasearch
                                     queries
The Deal
What was announced?


In the later part 2012, Connecticut based online travel agency
Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) announced its largest acquisition since it
went online in 1998. The target is the fast growing Kayak (NASDAQ:
KYAK), an online travel search firm that enables consumers to search
for multiple travel offers from one web or mobile platform. The deal
calls for:
• $500 million in cash
• $1.3 billion in stock
• Adding up to a $1.8 billion dollar valuation of Kayak

     The deal’s price tag is at least 8 times greater than any of
 Priceline’s previous acquisitions and is slated to close in mid 2013
What is the Story?
It is about Capturing the Consumer!
Online Travel Industry
$2 Trillion Industry: 9% of the Worldwide GDP



                                                       10% per year
                                                         growth

  77% of travel is for     2nd largest stand-alone
      business              industry in the world

Bottom Line – This
 is a Big Industry

                                                       A growing middle-
                                                       class in developing
                                                            countries
                $460B = 23% of travel is for leisure
Online Travel Industry
        Lets talk about the Value Chain

                           •   Vacation Packages                                •   Sight seeing
                           •   Vacation Home                                    •   Local Attractions
•       Shared values                                                                                 •   Friends
                               Rent.                                            •   Local Bus tours
•       Motivation factors                                                                            •   Facebook,
                           •   Travel Packages   •                              •   Restaurants
•       Quality of life                                     Airlines                                  •   Travel Blogs
                           •   Resorts Packages •                               •   Shopping
•       Personal success                                    Hotel, Car                                •   Photos
                           •   Friends           •          Cruises                                   •   Travel reviews
•       Friends, Movies,
•       TV, Internet, Ads                        •          Buses, Trains                             •   Emails




           Dream           Research              Plan               Booking              Fulfill          Sharing


                                                                            •  Restaurants $$
    •    Advertising $$$       •   Sales pitch                              •  Attractions • Google Ad-words $$
                                                        •     Ticket $$$       during stay • Social Media Ads $$
                                                        •     Package Deals $$$             • Targeted Ads
Online Travel Industry
The Conversion Funnel




                          How can Priceline
                         prevent more drops
                            and increase
Goal – Improve              conversions?
 Conversion
    Rates!
The Deal
Remember the Value Chain?




            So who are the players in the value
    Dream    Research  Plan     Booking  Fulfill   Sharing
                           chain?
Dream              Research   Plan        Booking    Fulfill      Sharing


• Direct Suppliers are winning online booking share from the OTAs

• Metasearch enabled the direct suppliers toSuppliers
                                     Direct better reach the consumer and bypass
  the OTAs
   Capture the customer                 Capture more of the
• Priceline early                           Value Chain
            purchasing Kayak, keeps the direct suppliers encroachment in check

    Travel Information
        Websites




                                    Mobile Platforms
Strategy
 What is Priceline getting for $1.8B?


• Elimination of a potential
  competitor

• Expanding the role in the Value
  Chain

• Increasing “Look to Book” for
  Priceline

• Potential cost reduction

• Strong Platform for Growth

• More leverage over direct suppliers
Advanced                 Better user           Advertising
                                       Technology
                                                                 experience             Revenues
Offer a product buyers want at                                         Customer Loyalty
      prices they demand

                                                                                     Strong Brand

                                          Customer experiences
        Cost Advantages

                                            High Conversion Rates
 Positive                                     Economies of Scale               Highly Profitable
Feedback
  Loops                                                                        International
                                                                                 Strength
              Negotiating Power with
                     suppliers
                                                       Strong global growth
                                                          in online travel


                                        Valuable                                        Deep Pockets For
                                       Acquisitions                                       Investment


 Aggregation of Demand Data
Financials
Profit Centers of the two Companies
Financials
Kayak operating costs: Every $1 in revenue costs $.75




                                 Estimated 2012
                                Revenue = $314M
Financials
Our Approach to the Valuation

Priceline                                     2012         2013     2014      2015       2016     2017     2018     2019 7 Year Growth
Hotel Bookings:Market Share of     Pre         3.58%        3.98%    4.18%     4.38%      4.38%    4.40%    4.42%    4.44%       24.02%
Occupied Hotel Rooms               Post        3.58%        4.08%    4.38%     4.61%      4.66%    4.71%    4.76%    4.80%       34.08%

Priceline                                     2012         2013     2014      2015       2016     2017     2018     2019 7 Year Growth
Hotel Bookings: EBITDA Margins     Pre         23.2%        22.7%    22.2%     21.7%      21.2%    20.7%    20.2%    19.7%      -15.09%
                                   Post        23.2%          23%      23%       23%        23%      23%      22%      22%       -5.17%

Kayak                                         2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019 7 Year Growth
Advertising:Online Ad Revenue      Pre       $ 180 $ 195 $ 208 $ 221 $ 232 $ 243 $ 256 $ 268         48.89%
per 1,000                          Post      $ 180 $ 210 $ 234 $ 255 $ 272 $ 289 $ 304 $ 320         77.78%

Kayak                                         2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  2018  2019 7 Year Growth
Hotel Referral Fees:Per 1,000      Pre       $ 321 $ 385 $ 424 $ 458 $ 490 $ 519 $ 550 $ 583         81.62%
Hotel Queries                      Post      $ 321 $ 447 $ 532 $ 601 $ 660 $ 709 $ 755 $ 799       148.91%
           Priceline                                                         Kayak
           Stock Price           Pre                   $     584             Stock Price      Pre                     $   31.0
                                 Current               $     688                              Current                 $   39.9
                                 Our Value             $     675                              Our Value               $   34.8

           Maket Cap             Pre                   29.1 B                Maket Cap        Pre                    1.2 B
                                 Current               34.3 B                                 Current                1.5 B
                                 Our Value             33.7 B                                 Our Value              1.2 B
Financials
High level summary of our valuation
THANK YOU!

Kayak priceline deal_post

  • 1.
    Deal Analysis –Priceline’s Acquisition of Kayak USC EMBA San Diego – 2013 Your Logo
  • 2.
    Who are theseguys? • Founded in 1997 • Founded in 2004 • Online Travel Agent (OTA) • Metasearch engine • “Name Your Own Price” • 133 employees • William Shatner • $224.5M (2011 revenue) • 5,000 employees • 55% from advertising • $4,355.6M (2011 revenue) • 45% from supplier & • Commissions OTA referral fees • Managed inventory • 53% of US metasearch queries
  • 3.
    The Deal What wasannounced? In the later part 2012, Connecticut based online travel agency Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN) announced its largest acquisition since it went online in 1998. The target is the fast growing Kayak (NASDAQ: KYAK), an online travel search firm that enables consumers to search for multiple travel offers from one web or mobile platform. The deal calls for: • $500 million in cash • $1.3 billion in stock • Adding up to a $1.8 billion dollar valuation of Kayak The deal’s price tag is at least 8 times greater than any of Priceline’s previous acquisitions and is slated to close in mid 2013
  • 4.
    What is theStory? It is about Capturing the Consumer!
  • 5.
    Online Travel Industry $2Trillion Industry: 9% of the Worldwide GDP 10% per year growth 77% of travel is for 2nd largest stand-alone business industry in the world Bottom Line – This is a Big Industry A growing middle- class in developing countries $460B = 23% of travel is for leisure
  • 6.
    Online Travel Industry Lets talk about the Value Chain • Vacation Packages • Sight seeing • Vacation Home • Local Attractions • Shared values • Friends Rent. • Local Bus tours • Motivation factors • Facebook, • Travel Packages • • Restaurants • Quality of life Airlines • Travel Blogs • Resorts Packages • • Shopping • Personal success Hotel, Car • Photos • Friends • Cruises • Travel reviews • Friends, Movies, • TV, Internet, Ads • Buses, Trains • Emails Dream Research Plan Booking Fulfill Sharing • Restaurants $$ • Advertising $$$ • Sales pitch • Attractions • Google Ad-words $$ • Ticket $$$ during stay • Social Media Ads $$ • Package Deals $$$ • Targeted Ads
  • 7.
    Online Travel Industry TheConversion Funnel How can Priceline prevent more drops and increase Goal – Improve conversions? Conversion Rates!
  • 8.
    The Deal Remember theValue Chain? So who are the players in the value Dream Research Plan Booking Fulfill Sharing chain?
  • 9.
    Dream Research Plan Booking Fulfill Sharing • Direct Suppliers are winning online booking share from the OTAs • Metasearch enabled the direct suppliers toSuppliers Direct better reach the consumer and bypass the OTAs Capture the customer Capture more of the • Priceline early Value Chain purchasing Kayak, keeps the direct suppliers encroachment in check Travel Information Websites Mobile Platforms
  • 10.
    Strategy What isPriceline getting for $1.8B? • Elimination of a potential competitor • Expanding the role in the Value Chain • Increasing “Look to Book” for Priceline • Potential cost reduction • Strong Platform for Growth • More leverage over direct suppliers
  • 11.
    Advanced Better user Advertising Technology experience Revenues Offer a product buyers want at Customer Loyalty prices they demand Strong Brand Customer experiences Cost Advantages High Conversion Rates Positive Economies of Scale Highly Profitable Feedback Loops International Strength Negotiating Power with suppliers Strong global growth in online travel Valuable Deep Pockets For Acquisitions Investment Aggregation of Demand Data
  • 12.
  • 13.
    Financials Kayak operating costs:Every $1 in revenue costs $.75 Estimated 2012 Revenue = $314M
  • 14.
    Financials Our Approach tothe Valuation Priceline 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Year Growth Hotel Bookings:Market Share of Pre 3.58% 3.98% 4.18% 4.38% 4.38% 4.40% 4.42% 4.44% 24.02% Occupied Hotel Rooms Post 3.58% 4.08% 4.38% 4.61% 4.66% 4.71% 4.76% 4.80% 34.08% Priceline 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Year Growth Hotel Bookings: EBITDA Margins Pre 23.2% 22.7% 22.2% 21.7% 21.2% 20.7% 20.2% 19.7% -15.09% Post 23.2% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 22% 22% -5.17% Kayak 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Year Growth Advertising:Online Ad Revenue Pre $ 180 $ 195 $ 208 $ 221 $ 232 $ 243 $ 256 $ 268 48.89% per 1,000 Post $ 180 $ 210 $ 234 $ 255 $ 272 $ 289 $ 304 $ 320 77.78% Kayak 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Year Growth Hotel Referral Fees:Per 1,000 Pre $ 321 $ 385 $ 424 $ 458 $ 490 $ 519 $ 550 $ 583 81.62% Hotel Queries Post $ 321 $ 447 $ 532 $ 601 $ 660 $ 709 $ 755 $ 799 148.91% Priceline Kayak Stock Price Pre $ 584 Stock Price Pre $ 31.0 Current $ 688 Current $ 39.9 Our Value $ 675 Our Value $ 34.8 Maket Cap Pre 29.1 B Maket Cap Pre 1.2 B Current 34.3 B Current 1.5 B Our Value 33.7 B Our Value 1.2 B
  • 15.
  • 16.