What does climate mitigation really mean for the world, or for the EU and Ireland? Climate change policy and media discussions are plagued by basic misunderstandings resulting in poor policy and ongoing confusion. This short presentation aims to clarify the surprisingly simple (if stark) implications of climate science and sustainable development for our part in a “global transition to a low-carbon future”. If we are serious about sustainability then continuing to delay substantial and sustained climate action is a very bad idea.

1. Paul Price
@swimsure
Researcher, Climate Change Committee
An Taisce – The National Trust for Ireland
www.antaisce.org/issues/climate-change
Pathways to a Low-Carbon Future
How We Get There Is (VERY) Important
3 Nov 2015

2. Success!

3. Or Failure?
EU emissions only down 4%, now rising
again – failing to meet irrelevant target

4. 0"
2"
4"
6"
8"
10"
12"
1990" 1995" 2000" 2005" 2010"
0"
2"
4"
6"
8"
10"
12"
14"
16"
1990" 1995" 2000" 2005" 2010"
EU CO2
tonnes per person
Ireland CO2
tonnes per person
Consumption
Consumption
Territorial
Territorial
5
10
15
1990 19902000 2010 2000 2010
0
The Best Measure of
Climate Policy Is
Consumption Emissions
Economic
recession
To date, only economic recession
has seriously cut emissions.
Policy has had little effect, especially in Ireland

5. Are we serious about limiting global warming?
No.
We have failed to understand what is required.

6. 1
0
-2
-3
2
3
-1
20000BC 16000BC 12000BC 8000BC 4000BC 0 2000CE
Human-caused
greenhouse
emissions explain
all of the very
rapid recent
global warming
TemperatureAnomalyºC
(RelativetoPre-Industrial)
Year BCE/CE
We are
here
Temperatures for
human agricultural
civilisation
Earth Mean Surface Temperature
Over the Past 22,000 Years
4ºC rise after
last ice age took
12,000 years
r
ook
s
Possible 4ºC
rise in 200
years unless
emissions stop

7. 1. Global warming due to
past emissions is
(essentially) irreversible
2. BUT additional warming
can be limited by cutting
total future emissions.
3. More warming can only
be avoided if future CO2
emissions go to ZERO
Earth’s Climate System
Three Key Points

8. Total CO2 emitted
(trillions of tonnes)
6 TtCO2
3 TtCO2
Year
2 TtCO2 emitted so far
Emissions
Flow Stops
Proven Fossil Fuel Reserves
If Burned = 3 TtCO2
Warming remains
#CarbonBubble #Divestment
#KeepItInTheGround
SurfaceWarmingºC
Climate Model for
2ºC & 4ºC

9. 3 Essentials of Climate Policy
2. Target: urgent immediate emission cuts
Decarbonise fast in line with science and equity.
-x% per
year
1. Carbon Budgets: warming is ‘forever’
Total future emissions = Total future warming
= ºCCO2
3. Eliminate Rebound: ring-fence savings
Savings wasted if spent on more emissions.
CO2€CO2

10. Carbon
Economy
Climate
Risk
2ºC
STOP
1. Carbon Budgets: warming is forever
Total future emissions = Total future warming
= ºCCO2
2ºC
Limit
1 trillion tonnes
global CO2 budget
Rapid emissions cuts needed or else 2 trillion tonnes
of CO₂ will be emitted globally in the next 40 years
As of 2011

11. Choosing the
mitigation pathway
The Emission Pathway Is VERY Important...
= ºCCO2
Emissions
Time
...because delay is not an option

12. 100
10
2015 2050Year
No cut in annual
or cumulative total
emissions
‘Flat-lining Emissions’ Pathway
Annual CO2
Emissions
(assume 2015
emissions = 100)
Note: Flatlining emissions (CO2 or methane) is NOT mitigation!
No
decrease
in annual
emissions

13. 100
10
No better than
flatline pathway
in total
cumulative
emissions.
2015 2050Year
Annual CO2
Emissions
(assume 2015
emissions = 100)
Delayed Action Pathway
(No-Action Pathway)
Continue biz-as-usual
Need to cut very fast
to meet 2050 target
90%
decrease
in annual
emissions

14. 100
10
Relative to flatline:
45% cut in total
cumulative emissions
2015 2050Year
Annual CO2
Emissions
(assume 2015
emissions = 100)
Linear Reduction Pathway
Per cent reduction
needed increases
over time
90%
decrease
in annual
emissions

15. Annual CO2
Emissions
(assume 2015
emissions = 100)
100
10
2015 2050Year
Relative to flatline:
60% cut in total
cumulative emissions
90%
decrease
in annual
emissions
Continuous Effort Pathway
Steady per cent
reduction over time

16. Different pathways have very different total emissions
Saying “80% cut by 2050” (or any cut % by date)
is meaningless UNLESS
reduction rate or total carbon budget is also specified.
= ºCCO2
Emissions
Time

17. 0
20
40
60
80
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
MtCO2eq
Fair-share?
Pay for
excess?
Ireland Emissions – EPA projected versus
“Fair-share” and “Pay for excess”
EPA projected

18. 2. Target: deep decarbonisation rate
Decarbonise in line with science and equity.
-x% per
year
“Limiting climate change will require
substantial and sustained reductions
of greenhouse gas emissions.”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fifth Assessment 2014
Cut energy
consumption
FAST
Switch to
low carbon
power NOW
Keep fossil
fuels in the
ground
Minimise
food related
GHGs

19. 2020 2030 2040
3%
2%
4%
8%
2025 20352015
5%
6%
7%
9%
Peak Year of Global Emissions
Global peak 2020 = average cut need -3% per year, every year.
Delay makes decarbonisation rate needed ever higher
2ºC necessary
average annual
rate of
decarbonisation
(% per year)
Don’t forget equity: Makes rate needed by richer nations much faster!
Urgent need to decarbonise quickly, starting now

20. 3. Eliminate Rebound: ring-fence savings
Savings wasted if spent on more emissions.
CO2 CO2€
Invest to save emissions
(often causes emissions)
Saving emissions, saves money!
Spend money
on more
emissions!
FAIL
Ring-fence cash
savings to more
emissions saving
SUCCESS
CO2
Repeat
until
zero
carbon

21. 2ºC
6 TtCO2
4ºC
3 TtCO2
Cumulative emissions past + continued
We are
here
1850 1900 205020001950 2100
Total global emissions continue to double every 40 years
Global rebound constant at 101.8% since 1850
CO2 emissions ZERO to stop rise in cumulative emissions

22. Increasing ‘efficiency’ is not enough:
TOTAL GHGs (direct and indirect) must decrease.
GHGs per unit x units produced = Total GHGs
Efficiency x Units = Carbon Footprint
The efficiency is NOT
the carbon footprint!
For example: the carbon footprint of dairy in Ireland is not
1 kg/litre (=carbon intensity). The carbon footprint is the
national total, about 4 million tonnes CO2e per year
Confusing Efficiency with Footprint is Not Helping

23. Fee and dividend:
Carbon fee at minehead and oil/gas well.
Increase rapidly, €100/tCO2 Dividend paid equally.
#CapGlobalCarbon
2ºC limits to drive real markets & innovation:
Demand (!) and set stretch equitable 2ºC aligned
carbon budgets targets to drive action based on
capacity & responsibility.
Ringfencing:
Ringfence ALL cost savings due to emission
saving to more emission savings.
Green Plan: Dublin Fire Brigade / Neil McCabe
-x% per
year
= ºCCO2
CO2 CO2€
Policies that add up

24. The critical,controllable uncertainty in the Earth’s
climate system is how much fossil carbon and food
GHGs humanity CHOOSES to emit in future.
We are running out of ‘braking distance’ for 2ºC.
Carbon
Economy
Climate
Risk
2ºC
STOP
Too fast! = more risk!!
Selfishly delaying deep and fast emission cuts is not
an option – total emissions MUST be limited, even in
small rich nations with high emissions per person.

25. Even locally, climate decisions require
thinking global and very long-term.
Delay is not an option,
substantial and sustained action is needed
now.
Thank-you!

26. References
Slide
2 Irish Independent 20/10/15
3 Altered version of above story
4 Emissions data from Global Carbon Atlas
5 NASA photo of airglow, Earth limb and Iberian peninsula
6 Annotated version of Hagelaars The two epochs of Marcott see:
https://ourchangingclimate.wordpress.com/2013/03/19/the-two-epochs-of-marcott/
7 Climate science based on Matthews and Solomon (2013) Irreversible Does Not Mean Unavoidable
Science 340, 438 (2013);
8 Solomon et al (2009) Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions PNAS February 10,
2009 vol. 106 no. 6
10 IPCC (2013) AR5 WG1 SPM p 27.
11-16 Emission pathway graphics by Paul Price
17 Data from EPA (2015) Emission Projections plus equitable path from Stockholm Environment Institute,
Climate equity calculator http://www.sei-international.org/equity-calculator
18 Redrawn to show 2ºC only, from Stocker et al (2013) The Closing Doors of Climate Targets.
Science Vol. 339 no. 6117 pp. 280-282
20 Earth surface temperature, annotated version of Hagelaars
21 See Berners-Lee (2015) http://earth101.is/mike-berners-lee/ and Jarvis et al (2011) Climate–society
feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change. Nature Climate Change 2, 668–671
(2012)
22 Carbon footprint: Correct definition in BSI and Carbon Trust (2008) Guide to PAS 2050, compared to
usage by O’Brien et al (2014) in Int J Life Cycle Assess (2014) 19:1469–1481