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PLAYER
INFORMATION
PROJECT
NEW HORIZONS IN RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING CONFERENCE
LAURA MOORE
ADDITIONAL DUTIES:
o Protect integrity of the Lottery
o Protect players
o Maximise funds to good causes
PERMIT GAMBLING,
ENSURING:
UK Gambling Commission has wide remit with
player protection at the core
o It is crime free
o It is fair and open
o Children and vulnerable
people are protected
UK National Lottery
operated by
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
13/14 14/15 YTD
IIWG SC
HP Tball
EM Lotto
NL portfolio sales as % over time
DrawbasedInstants
Lotto and EuroMillions
sales dropping
- Still account for revenue
majority
Scratchcard sales
driving IWG increase
Source: Camelot sales data4
Draw based game decline changing shape of portfolio
MORE
CHANGES
1st
Lotto draw
Lotto
price rise
Lotto matrix
change
NO CHANGES
FOR 19 YEARS
Natural erosion of main DBG means a push for innovations
Need to facilitate growth alongside duties
What is
the current
play decision
making process?
How
informed
are players?
How do
game changes
disrupt the
information norm?
What level of
trust and
transparency
exists for players?
A need to develop knowledge, obtain an independent
view of players and prepare for the future of UK Lotto
1 2 3 4
16 in-depth
interviews
3 waves of follow-
up phone interviews
8 ethnographic
interviews
Quantitative survey:
1,024 game players
QUANTITATIVEQUALITATIVEETHNOGRAPHY
Observing behaviour in
situ to explore players’
unconscious emotional
drivers of playing
Unpicking players’
understanding of, and
attitudes towards,
National Lottery games
Examining player
behaviour change in
real time following
Lotto changes of Oct
2015
Providing measurement
and profiling of player
behaviour and attitudes,
Iterative research model
Behavioural framework COM-B underpinned study to
keep player behaviour at the core
Michie S, van Stralen M, West R (2011) The Behaviour Change Wheel: a new method
for characterising and designing behaviour change interventions. Implement Sci 6:42
OPPORTUNITY
Factors outside of individual
• Physical
• Social
MOTIVATION
Brain processes directing
behaviour
• Reflective
• Automatic
CAPABILITY
Capacity of individual
to engage in activity
• Physical
• Psychological
Michie S, van Stralen M, West R (2011) The Behaviour Change Wheel: a new method
for characterising and designing behaviour change interventions. Implement Sci 6:42
Analysing player behaviour using COM-B
OPPORTUNITY
‘Socially acceptable’
Not seen as gambling – family,
friends and gifting
MOTIVATION
Player’s cognitive biases play a role
in continued playing (sunk costs,
‘nearly there’ past wins, avoiding
deviation from routine behaviour)
Players enticed by the ‘desert island’
win
CAPABILITY
Player lacks
mathematical
understanding to
process probability
information, PPO
REGULATORS
AND PLAYERS
PLAYERS
How to play and win,
muted desire to
understand beyond this
OPERATORS
Clarity on how to play
the game with a focus
on the benefits
REGULATORS
Sound understanding
of the game and its
mechanics, how to play
and the risks
Disjoint between regulator ideal of ‘informed lottery player
and emotional mode of play
An informed decision
I can
afford it
I have all the
information
MOTIVATION
I want
to play
CAPABILITY OPPORTUNITY
Regulatory aim: a considered journey
Player perspective: An emotionally motivated
journey
An informed decision
I can
afford it
I have all the
information
I want
to play
MOTIVATIONCAPABILITY OPPORTUNITY
I WANT
TO PLAY
Big dream key motivator – emotional pull that triggers biases
UK Lotto primarily habitual, jackpot focused players
Players conscious that life changing figure motivates them
Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015
Base: 1,024, all who have ever played any National Lottery game
17
I think I have
a chance to win
a big prize!
35%
agree
I have a
chance to
change my life!
57%
agree
GENERIC EVENT LED JACKPOT EVENT LED
Sales performance weaker without JP amount
But exhibit ‘bounded hope’ – know jackpot, accept notion
they’re unlikely to win, but reassured someone will
‘Bounded
hope’
But someone
will win it
Low
likelihood
Desert
island win
“I remember somebody saying it’s a
tax on people who can’t do maths.
But I thought – well, someone wins it”
Danny
I HAVE
THE INFORMATION I NEED
Jackpot amount is their overriding information focus –
motivation over capability
INFORMATIONHIERARCHY
HOW TO PLAY
WHAT THE PRIZES ARE
NOTION OF ODDS
PRICE OF TICKET
PLAYER RISK BASED IDEAL
GAME UNDERSTANDING
WHAT THE PRIZES ARE
PRICE OF TICKET
ODDS
This focus, plus social acceptability and trust in
National Lottery means players feel informed
Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015
Base:,all who have ever played Lotto
21
AT BEST, 8% close to
knowing odds of jackpot
win
90% SAY THEY
“MOSTLY” OR
“COMPLETELY”
UNDERSTAND
LOTTO.
PERCEIVED
CAPABILITY STRONG
TRUE CAPABILITY
WEAK
SHORT CIRCUITING
Ticket cost
compared directly
to jackpot amount
Players typically routing around the odds
OSTRICH
EFFECT
Avoiding risk
by pretending it
doesn’t exist
INTANGIBLE
Too long to
grasp –
overridden
by biases
Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015
Base: 799, all who have played Lotto in the past 12 months
23
Any information seeking is in response to a trigger; it’s
generally online, targeted and within the core hierarchy
8% Regularly
If game
changes
(18%)
If not
played
recently
(24%)
First
play
(14%)
Never
(36%)
MOTIVATION - Prizes
CAPABILITY - How to play
OPPORTUNITY - Price
I LOOK FOR INFORMATION ON LOTTO…
DISRUPTING
THE NORM
Recent National Lottery changes altered
the prizes and the logistics
NATIONAL LOTTERY
CHANGES INCLUDED:
• Ten extra balls
(1-59 not 1-49)
• Jackpot win odds longer:
1 in 14m to 1 in 45m
• Millionaire raffle
in every draw
• Match 2 for a free go
Updated Lotto marketing focussed heavily on the extra prizes
Lotto
changes
related to
important
parts of the
information
hierarchies
INFORMATION
HIERARCHY
HOW TO PLAY
WHAT THE PRIZES ARE
NOTION OF ODDS
PRICE OF TICKET
METHODS OF CLAIMING
#Pleasenotthem comms….
PLAYER RESPONSE
TO CHANGE
74%
aware
game has changed
Not everyone aware of changes; despite ads and media focus,
less than a third clear on revised odds even when prompted
Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015
Base: 705, all who played Lotto in past 12 months / 523, all aware of Lotto changes
30%
agree odds now
1 in 45 million
Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015
Base: 523, all aware of Lotto changes
Suppressed appetite to develop post-change capability
16%
want
more
51% don’t
want more
information, but
‘know’ it exists
34%
know all
they want
to know
Unnatural focus on capability
dampens motivation, so it’s avoided
Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015
Base: 523, all aware of Lotto changes
31
Those that do look, do so primarily within the heirarchy
26%
20%
11%
11%
Prizes
Price
How
Odds
MOTIVATION
OPPORTUNITY
CAPABILITY
Despite low engagement with changes, there’s displeasure
Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015
Base: 705, all who play(ed) Lotto in past 12 months
Quarter of players claim to want out but much smaller
amount actually leave; myths and biases preventing exit
26%
INTEND TO PLAY LESS/LEAVE THE GAME…
…WEEKLY PLAYER AVERAGE ONLY DROPPED BY c.5% SO FAR
“I can’t stop playing
now, I’ve played the
same numbers for
years. But I don’t like
the changes.”
Launch
event
R15
R1 R3
R13
R11
R9R7R5
Saturday Lotto sales since game change
Oct 2015 Jan 16
Resulting roll series enthusing less engaged players, but driving
distrust in more engaged players
“They’ve made
it impossible
to win!”
“£66m?!
Get me a
ticket!”
Habitual and
automatic
nature of lottery
play means
changes need to
be introduced
and reiterated
in order for
them to be
noticed
Offer a clear
benefit to
maintain the
perceived fair
value exchange
and manage the
potential
negative
impacts of play
re-evaluation
Listen to player
research – don’t
be blindly
focused on
sales/good
cause gains.
Listen to your
players – it’s
their game
Be clear about
change –
respect players
right to know
what they are
playing,
misleading can
erode trust and
credibility
Managing player understanding following major
game changes requires balance & genuine player benefit
PROMOTING AN
INFORMED DECISION
PLAYERS’ INFORMATION EXPECTATION
DOESN’T ALIGN WITH BEHAVIOUR:
o Even those never seeking
information believe detailed
information should be accessible
o Assume it’s there
demonstrating trust in operators and
regulators and a basic expectation
that must be met
TRUST TRANSPARENCY
PLAY
BUT FAIRNESS AND TRANSPARENCY
ESSENTIAL TO MAINTAIN R’SHIP
38
ACCEPT DIFFERENCES IN HIERARCHY
• Appreciate limitations around player engagement with ‘key’ information
• Continue to pursue high standards to align to player expectation and drive
trust and transparency
ENGAGE PLAYERS ORGANICALLY
• Provide opportunities to be fully informed within natural journey
• Easily accessible, online focus and embedded within player hierarchy
• Greater prominence needed when game changes
• For most, not seeking a major behavioural change
EMPOWER UNHAPPY HABITUALS TO FREE THEMSELVES
• Real benefits targeted to these players
• OR tailored myth busting in areas they visit
ENGAGE PLAYERS ORGANICALLY
• Provide opportunities to be fully informed within natural journey:
• Easily accessible, online focus, embedded within player hierarchy
• Greater prominence needed when game changes
• For most, not seeking a major behavioural change
EMPOWER UNHAPPY HABITUALS TO FREE THEMSELVES
• Real benefits targeted to these players
• OR tailored myth busting in areas they visit

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The informed player opportunity

  • 1.
  • 2. PLAYER INFORMATION PROJECT NEW HORIZONS IN RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING CONFERENCE LAURA MOORE
  • 3. ADDITIONAL DUTIES: o Protect integrity of the Lottery o Protect players o Maximise funds to good causes PERMIT GAMBLING, ENSURING: UK Gambling Commission has wide remit with player protection at the core o It is crime free o It is fair and open o Children and vulnerable people are protected UK National Lottery operated by
  • 4. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 13/14 14/15 YTD IIWG SC HP Tball EM Lotto NL portfolio sales as % over time DrawbasedInstants Lotto and EuroMillions sales dropping - Still account for revenue majority Scratchcard sales driving IWG increase Source: Camelot sales data4 Draw based game decline changing shape of portfolio
  • 5. MORE CHANGES 1st Lotto draw Lotto price rise Lotto matrix change NO CHANGES FOR 19 YEARS Natural erosion of main DBG means a push for innovations Need to facilitate growth alongside duties
  • 6. What is the current play decision making process? How informed are players? How do game changes disrupt the information norm? What level of trust and transparency exists for players? A need to develop knowledge, obtain an independent view of players and prepare for the future of UK Lotto 1 2 3 4
  • 7. 16 in-depth interviews 3 waves of follow- up phone interviews 8 ethnographic interviews Quantitative survey: 1,024 game players QUANTITATIVEQUALITATIVEETHNOGRAPHY Observing behaviour in situ to explore players’ unconscious emotional drivers of playing Unpicking players’ understanding of, and attitudes towards, National Lottery games Examining player behaviour change in real time following Lotto changes of Oct 2015 Providing measurement and profiling of player behaviour and attitudes, Iterative research model
  • 8. Behavioural framework COM-B underpinned study to keep player behaviour at the core Michie S, van Stralen M, West R (2011) The Behaviour Change Wheel: a new method for characterising and designing behaviour change interventions. Implement Sci 6:42 OPPORTUNITY Factors outside of individual • Physical • Social MOTIVATION Brain processes directing behaviour • Reflective • Automatic CAPABILITY Capacity of individual to engage in activity • Physical • Psychological
  • 9. Michie S, van Stralen M, West R (2011) The Behaviour Change Wheel: a new method for characterising and designing behaviour change interventions. Implement Sci 6:42 Analysing player behaviour using COM-B OPPORTUNITY ‘Socially acceptable’ Not seen as gambling – family, friends and gifting MOTIVATION Player’s cognitive biases play a role in continued playing (sunk costs, ‘nearly there’ past wins, avoiding deviation from routine behaviour) Players enticed by the ‘desert island’ win CAPABILITY Player lacks mathematical understanding to process probability information, PPO
  • 11. PLAYERS How to play and win, muted desire to understand beyond this OPERATORS Clarity on how to play the game with a focus on the benefits REGULATORS Sound understanding of the game and its mechanics, how to play and the risks Disjoint between regulator ideal of ‘informed lottery player and emotional mode of play
  • 12. An informed decision I can afford it I have all the information MOTIVATION I want to play CAPABILITY OPPORTUNITY Regulatory aim: a considered journey
  • 13. Player perspective: An emotionally motivated journey An informed decision I can afford it I have all the information I want to play MOTIVATIONCAPABILITY OPPORTUNITY
  • 15. Big dream key motivator – emotional pull that triggers biases
  • 16. UK Lotto primarily habitual, jackpot focused players
  • 17. Players conscious that life changing figure motivates them Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015 Base: 1,024, all who have ever played any National Lottery game 17 I think I have a chance to win a big prize! 35% agree I have a chance to change my life! 57% agree GENERIC EVENT LED JACKPOT EVENT LED Sales performance weaker without JP amount
  • 18. But exhibit ‘bounded hope’ – know jackpot, accept notion they’re unlikely to win, but reassured someone will ‘Bounded hope’ But someone will win it Low likelihood Desert island win “I remember somebody saying it’s a tax on people who can’t do maths. But I thought – well, someone wins it” Danny
  • 20. Jackpot amount is their overriding information focus – motivation over capability INFORMATIONHIERARCHY HOW TO PLAY WHAT THE PRIZES ARE NOTION OF ODDS PRICE OF TICKET PLAYER RISK BASED IDEAL GAME UNDERSTANDING WHAT THE PRIZES ARE PRICE OF TICKET ODDS
  • 21. This focus, plus social acceptability and trust in National Lottery means players feel informed Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015 Base:,all who have ever played Lotto 21 AT BEST, 8% close to knowing odds of jackpot win 90% SAY THEY “MOSTLY” OR “COMPLETELY” UNDERSTAND LOTTO. PERCEIVED CAPABILITY STRONG TRUE CAPABILITY WEAK
  • 22. SHORT CIRCUITING Ticket cost compared directly to jackpot amount Players typically routing around the odds OSTRICH EFFECT Avoiding risk by pretending it doesn’t exist INTANGIBLE Too long to grasp – overridden by biases
  • 23. Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015 Base: 799, all who have played Lotto in the past 12 months 23 Any information seeking is in response to a trigger; it’s generally online, targeted and within the core hierarchy 8% Regularly If game changes (18%) If not played recently (24%) First play (14%) Never (36%) MOTIVATION - Prizes CAPABILITY - How to play OPPORTUNITY - Price I LOOK FOR INFORMATION ON LOTTO…
  • 25. Recent National Lottery changes altered the prizes and the logistics NATIONAL LOTTERY CHANGES INCLUDED: • Ten extra balls (1-59 not 1-49) • Jackpot win odds longer: 1 in 14m to 1 in 45m • Millionaire raffle in every draw • Match 2 for a free go
  • 26. Updated Lotto marketing focussed heavily on the extra prizes Lotto changes related to important parts of the information hierarchies INFORMATION HIERARCHY HOW TO PLAY WHAT THE PRIZES ARE NOTION OF ODDS PRICE OF TICKET METHODS OF CLAIMING
  • 29. 74% aware game has changed Not everyone aware of changes; despite ads and media focus, less than a third clear on revised odds even when prompted Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015 Base: 705, all who played Lotto in past 12 months / 523, all aware of Lotto changes 30% agree odds now 1 in 45 million
  • 30. Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015 Base: 523, all aware of Lotto changes Suppressed appetite to develop post-change capability 16% want more 51% don’t want more information, but ‘know’ it exists 34% know all they want to know Unnatural focus on capability dampens motivation, so it’s avoided
  • 31. Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015 Base: 523, all aware of Lotto changes 31 Those that do look, do so primarily within the heirarchy 26% 20% 11% 11% Prizes Price How Odds MOTIVATION OPPORTUNITY CAPABILITY
  • 32. Despite low engagement with changes, there’s displeasure
  • 33. Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015 Base: 705, all who play(ed) Lotto in past 12 months Quarter of players claim to want out but much smaller amount actually leave; myths and biases preventing exit 26% INTEND TO PLAY LESS/LEAVE THE GAME… …WEEKLY PLAYER AVERAGE ONLY DROPPED BY c.5% SO FAR “I can’t stop playing now, I’ve played the same numbers for years. But I don’t like the changes.”
  • 34. Launch event R15 R1 R3 R13 R11 R9R7R5 Saturday Lotto sales since game change Oct 2015 Jan 16 Resulting roll series enthusing less engaged players, but driving distrust in more engaged players “They’ve made it impossible to win!” “£66m?! Get me a ticket!”
  • 35. Habitual and automatic nature of lottery play means changes need to be introduced and reiterated in order for them to be noticed Offer a clear benefit to maintain the perceived fair value exchange and manage the potential negative impacts of play re-evaluation Listen to player research – don’t be blindly focused on sales/good cause gains. Listen to your players – it’s their game Be clear about change – respect players right to know what they are playing, misleading can erode trust and credibility Managing player understanding following major game changes requires balance & genuine player benefit
  • 37. PLAYERS’ INFORMATION EXPECTATION DOESN’T ALIGN WITH BEHAVIOUR: o Even those never seeking information believe detailed information should be accessible o Assume it’s there demonstrating trust in operators and regulators and a basic expectation that must be met TRUST TRANSPARENCY PLAY BUT FAIRNESS AND TRANSPARENCY ESSENTIAL TO MAINTAIN R’SHIP
  • 38. 38 ACCEPT DIFFERENCES IN HIERARCHY • Appreciate limitations around player engagement with ‘key’ information • Continue to pursue high standards to align to player expectation and drive trust and transparency ENGAGE PLAYERS ORGANICALLY • Provide opportunities to be fully informed within natural journey • Easily accessible, online focus and embedded within player hierarchy • Greater prominence needed when game changes • For most, not seeking a major behavioural change EMPOWER UNHAPPY HABITUALS TO FREE THEMSELVES • Real benefits targeted to these players • OR tailored myth busting in areas they visit ENGAGE PLAYERS ORGANICALLY • Provide opportunities to be fully informed within natural journey: • Easily accessible, online focus, embedded within player hierarchy • Greater prominence needed when game changes • For most, not seeking a major behavioural change EMPOWER UNHAPPY HABITUALS TO FREE THEMSELVES • Real benefits targeted to these players • OR tailored myth busting in areas they visit

Editor's Notes

  1. Set up under the Gambling Act 2005 to regulate commercial gambling in Great Britain We regulate in a transparent, accountable, proportionate, and consistent way. Using a risk-based approach
  2. Psychological being capacity to engage in necessary thought processes of comprehension and reasoning Reflective – evaluation and plans, analytical decision making Automatic – emotional responding, impulses and habitual processes Opportunity is all of the factors that lie outside of the individual that make the behaviour possible or prompt Physical – afforded by the environment Social – cultural setting that dictates the way we think about things
  3. Here are some examples of player behaviour within the COM-B model and where they fit. Having this model means that we can start to think about how to influence player behaviour within a regulatory framework.
  4. So –
  5. DBGs – “I want to play”: https://vimeo.com/149434633 // password – ipsosmori
  6. They know the jackpot amount, and they know their chances of winning are small – but someone has to win Emotionally charged jackpot fixation allows optimism bias to creep in Helped by images of Mr and Mrs Average in the local paper Despite being driven by a hope of winning, many players exhibit ‘bounded hope’; they acknowledge they are unlikely to win, but they compensate that by noting that somebody has to win eventually - optimism bias and association bias are hard at work “I remember somebody saying it’s a tax on people who can’t do maths. But I thought – well, someone wins it” – Danny
  7. DBGs film - “I have the information”: https://vimeo.com/149434631// password – ipsosmori