The document discusses research conducted on National Lottery players in the UK. It found that players are primarily motivated to play by the chance to win a big jackpot, though they have a "bounded hope" of actually winning. Players feel they have enough information to play as long as they know how to play and what the prizes are, even if they do not fully understand the odds. Recent changes to the National Lottery disrupted this norm and caused some distrust among more engaged players. To promote informed decision making, operators should provide easy access to key information where players naturally engage, empower unhappy habitual players to stop playing, and maintain trust through transparency when making changes.

2. PLAYER
INFORMATION
PROJECT
NEW HORIZONS IN RESPONSIBLE GAMBLING CONFERENCE
LAURA MOORE

3. ADDITIONAL DUTIES:
o Protect integrity of the Lottery
o Protect players
o Maximise funds to good causes
PERMIT GAMBLING,
ENSURING:
UK Gambling Commission has wide remit with
player protection at the core
o It is crime free
o It is fair and open
o Children and vulnerable
people are protected
UK National Lottery
operated by

4. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
13/14 14/15 YTD
IIWG SC
HP Tball
EM Lotto
NL portfolio sales as % over time
DrawbasedInstants
Lotto and EuroMillions
sales dropping
- Still account for revenue
majority
Scratchcard sales
driving IWG increase
Source: Camelot sales data4
Draw based game decline changing shape of portfolio

5. MORE
CHANGES
1st
Lotto draw
Lotto
price rise
Lotto matrix
change
NO CHANGES
FOR 19 YEARS
Natural erosion of main DBG means a push for innovations
Need to facilitate growth alongside duties

6. What is
the current
play decision
making process?
How
informed
are players?
How do
game changes
disrupt the
information norm?
What level of
trust and
transparency
exists for players?
A need to develop knowledge, obtain an independent
view of players and prepare for the future of UK Lotto
1 2 3 4

7. 16 in-depth
interviews
3 waves of follow-
up phone interviews
8 ethnographic
interviews
Quantitative survey:
1,024 game players
QUANTITATIVEQUALITATIVEETHNOGRAPHY
Observing behaviour in
situ to explore players’
unconscious emotional
drivers of playing
Unpicking players’
understanding of, and
attitudes towards,
National Lottery games
Examining player
behaviour change in
real time following
Lotto changes of Oct
2015
Providing measurement
and profiling of player
behaviour and attitudes,
Iterative research model

8. Behavioural framework COM-B underpinned study to
keep player behaviour at the core
Michie S, van Stralen M, West R (2011) The Behaviour Change Wheel: a new method
for characterising and designing behaviour change interventions. Implement Sci 6:42
OPPORTUNITY
Factors outside of individual
• Physical
• Social
MOTIVATION
Brain processes directing
behaviour
• Reflective
• Automatic
CAPABILITY
Capacity of individual
to engage in activity
• Physical
• Psychological

9. Michie S, van Stralen M, West R (2011) The Behaviour Change Wheel: a new method
for characterising and designing behaviour change interventions. Implement Sci 6:42
Analysing player behaviour using COM-B
OPPORTUNITY
‘Socially acceptable’
Not seen as gambling – family,
friends and gifting
MOTIVATION
Player’s cognitive biases play a role
in continued playing (sunk costs,
‘nearly there’ past wins, avoiding
deviation from routine behaviour)
Players enticed by the ‘desert island’
win
CAPABILITY
Player lacks
mathematical
understanding to
process probability
information, PPO

10. REGULATORS
AND PLAYERS

11. PLAYERS
How to play and win,
muted desire to
understand beyond this
OPERATORS
Clarity on how to play
the game with a focus
on the benefits
REGULATORS
Sound understanding
of the game and its
mechanics, how to play
and the risks
Disjoint between regulator ideal of ‘informed lottery player
and emotional mode of play

12. An informed decision
I can
afford it
I have all the
information
MOTIVATION
I want
to play
CAPABILITY OPPORTUNITY
Regulatory aim: a considered journey

13. Player perspective: An emotionally motivated
journey
An informed decision
I can
afford it
I have all the
information
I want
to play
MOTIVATIONCAPABILITY OPPORTUNITY

14. I WANT
TO PLAY

15. Big dream key motivator – emotional pull that triggers biases

16. UK Lotto primarily habitual, jackpot focused players

17. Players conscious that life changing figure motivates them
Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015
Base: 1,024, all who have ever played any National Lottery game
17
I think I have
a chance to win
a big prize!
35%
agree
I have a
chance to
change my life!
57%
agree
GENERIC EVENT LED JACKPOT EVENT LED
Sales performance weaker without JP amount

18. But exhibit ‘bounded hope’ – know jackpot, accept notion
they’re unlikely to win, but reassured someone will
‘Bounded
hope’
But someone
will win it
Low
likelihood
Desert
island win
“I remember somebody saying it’s a
tax on people who can’t do maths.
But I thought – well, someone wins it”
Danny

19. I HAVE
THE INFORMATION I NEED

20. Jackpot amount is their overriding information focus –
motivation over capability
INFORMATIONHIERARCHY
HOW TO PLAY
WHAT THE PRIZES ARE
NOTION OF ODDS
PRICE OF TICKET
PLAYER RISK BASED IDEAL
GAME UNDERSTANDING
WHAT THE PRIZES ARE
PRICE OF TICKET
ODDS

21. This focus, plus social acceptability and trust in
National Lottery means players feel informed
Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015
Base:,all who have ever played Lotto
21
AT BEST, 8% close to
knowing odds of jackpot
win
90% SAY THEY
“MOSTLY” OR
“COMPLETELY”
UNDERSTAND
LOTTO.
PERCEIVED
CAPABILITY STRONG
TRUE CAPABILITY
WEAK

22. SHORT CIRCUITING
Ticket cost
compared directly
to jackpot amount
Players typically routing around the odds
OSTRICH
EFFECT
Avoiding risk
by pretending it
doesn’t exist
INTANGIBLE
Too long to
grasp –
overridden
by biases

23. Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015
Base: 799, all who have played Lotto in the past 12 months
23
Any information seeking is in response to a trigger; it’s
generally online, targeted and within the core hierarchy
8% Regularly
If game
changes
(18%)
If not
played
recently
(24%)
First
play
(14%)
Never
(36%)
MOTIVATION - Prizes
CAPABILITY - How to play
OPPORTUNITY - Price
I LOOK FOR INFORMATION ON LOTTO…

24. DISRUPTING
THE NORM

25. Recent National Lottery changes altered
the prizes and the logistics
NATIONAL LOTTERY
CHANGES INCLUDED:
• Ten extra balls
(1-59 not 1-49)
• Jackpot win odds longer:
1 in 14m to 1 in 45m
• Millionaire raffle
in every draw
• Match 2 for a free go

26. Updated Lotto marketing focussed heavily on the extra prizes
Lotto
changes
related to
important
parts of the
information
hierarchies
INFORMATION
HIERARCHY
HOW TO PLAY
WHAT THE PRIZES ARE
NOTION OF ODDS
PRICE OF TICKET
METHODS OF CLAIMING

27. #Pleasenotthem comms….

28. PLAYER RESPONSE
TO CHANGE

29. 74%
aware
game has changed
Not everyone aware of changes; despite ads and media focus,
less than a third clear on revised odds even when prompted
Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015
Base: 705, all who played Lotto in past 12 months / 523, all aware of Lotto changes
30%
agree odds now
1 in 45 million

30. Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015
Base: 523, all aware of Lotto changes
Suppressed appetite to develop post-change capability
16%
want
more
51% don’t
want more
information, but
‘know’ it exists
34%
know all
they want
to know
Unnatural focus on capability
dampens motivation, so it’s avoided

31. Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015
Base: 523, all aware of Lotto changes
31
Those that do look, do so primarily within the heirarchy
26%
20%
11%
11%
Prizes
Price
How
Odds
MOTIVATION
OPPORTUNITY
CAPABILITY

32. Despite low engagement with changes, there’s displeasure

33. Source: Ipsos Player Information Study, Dec 2015
Base: 705, all who play(ed) Lotto in past 12 months
Quarter of players claim to want out but much smaller
amount actually leave; myths and biases preventing exit
26%
INTEND TO PLAY LESS/LEAVE THE GAME…
…WEEKLY PLAYER AVERAGE ONLY DROPPED BY c.5% SO FAR
“I can’t stop playing
now, I’ve played the
same numbers for
years. But I don’t like
the changes.”

34. Launch
event
R15
R1 R3
R13
R11
R9R7R5
Saturday Lotto sales since game change
Oct 2015 Jan 16
Resulting roll series enthusing less engaged players, but driving
distrust in more engaged players
“They’ve made
it impossible
to win!”
“£66m?!
Get me a
ticket!”

35. Habitual and
automatic
nature of lottery
play means
changes need to
be introduced
and reiterated
in order for
them to be
noticed
Offer a clear
benefit to
maintain the
perceived fair
value exchange
and manage the
potential
negative
impacts of play
re-evaluation
Listen to player
research – don’t
be blindly
focused on
sales/good
cause gains.
Listen to your
players – it’s
their game
Be clear about
change –
respect players
right to know
what they are
playing,
misleading can
erode trust and
credibility
Managing player understanding following major
game changes requires balance & genuine player benefit

36. PROMOTING AN
INFORMED DECISION

37. PLAYERS’ INFORMATION EXPECTATION
DOESN’T ALIGN WITH BEHAVIOUR:
o Even those never seeking
information believe detailed
information should be accessible
o Assume it’s there
demonstrating trust in operators and
regulators and a basic expectation
that must be met
TRUST TRANSPARENCY
PLAY
BUT FAIRNESS AND TRANSPARENCY
ESSENTIAL TO MAINTAIN R’SHIP

38. 38
ACCEPT DIFFERENCES IN HIERARCHY
• Appreciate limitations around player engagement with ‘key’ information
• Continue to pursue high standards to align to player expectation and drive
trust and transparency
ENGAGE PLAYERS ORGANICALLY
• Provide opportunities to be fully informed within natural journey
• Easily accessible, online focus and embedded within player hierarchy
• Greater prominence needed when game changes
• For most, not seeking a major behavioural change
EMPOWER UNHAPPY HABITUALS TO FREE THEMSELVES
• Real benefits targeted to these players
• OR tailored myth busting in areas they visit
ENGAGE PLAYERS ORGANICALLY
• Provide opportunities to be fully informed within natural journey:
• Easily accessible, online focus, embedded within player hierarchy
• Greater prominence needed when game changes
• For most, not seeking a major behavioural change
EMPOWER UNHAPPY HABITUALS TO FREE THEMSELVES
• Real benefits targeted to these players
• OR tailored myth busting in areas they visit