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![2. To what?
Food System Stresses and Shocks
Stress
pressure or tension
exerted on a system
[Steam Trains]
Shock
sudden surprising event
affecting a system
[Black Swans]
Demography Trade wars
Social & cultural norms Election and Referenda results
Natural resource degradation Food scares
Climate Extreme weather
Urbanisation Conflict
Automation Geophysical events
Science & technology
Geopolitics](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ingramciforwebinar12feb20192-190213043246/75/John-Ingram-Enhancing-food-system-resilience-22-2048.jpg)
![Growing volatility from stressors and shocks needs
enhanced resilience
3 Resilience notions
1. Robustness Aim to resist disruption to current outcome
2. Recovery Aim to return to current outcome after
disruption [bounce back]
3. Re-orientation Accept alternative outcome after disruption
(transformation) [bounce forward]
All involve
Re-organisation Make changes to the system
(adaptation)](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ingramciforwebinar12feb20192-190213043246/75/John-Ingram-Enhancing-food-system-resilience-25-2048.jpg)
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John Ingram | Enhancing food system resilience
The document discusses the challenges and complexities of enhancing food system resilience in the face of climate change, resource depletion, and socioeconomic disparities. It highlights the interconnected nature of food systems and their outcomes, emphasizing the need for sustainable practices and multi-actor collaboration to meet the growing demand for adequate, nutritious, and environmentally-friendly food. Key themes include the triple burden of malnutrition, ethical concerns, and the necessity for reorganization and transformation of food systems to achieve long-term sustainability.
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John Ingram | Enhancing food system resilience
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- 3. Environmental Outcomes • Climate change • Water availability •Water quality • Biodiversity • Biogeochemistry • Soil degradation • … Socioeconomic Outcomes • Income • Employment • Health • Social capital • Political capital • Ethics • … Trade-offs to be aware of! Synergies to exploit! Food System ‘Activities’ give rise to multiple ‘Outcomes’
- 4. Overall global food security ‘situation’ Insufficient cals Insufficient nutrs ~1 billion Insufficient nutrs ?3 billion Excess cals (incl. many with insufficient nutrs) > 2.5 billion Sufficient cals Sufficient nutrs ?3 billion Ø “Triple Burden of Malnutrition” Different, overlapping forms of malnutrition the ‘new normal’ (IFPRI 2015)
- 5. Food Systems Activitiesalso have varied impacts on natural resources We also know the current global environmental ‘situation’ • Soil 33% degraded • Fresh water 20% aquifers overexploited • Biodiversity 60% of loss • Marine resources 29% over-fished; 61% fully-fished And 24% of total GHG emissions And pollution: chemicals, plastics, litter, …
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- 7. Ø Child labour Ø Animal welfare ØWorkers rights Ø Inter-generational legacy Ø Food waste Ø Farmer welfare and safety Ø Equity Ø Civil harmony Ø … And we have a host of current ethical concerns
- 8. 2004 2006 20082010 2012 2014 Burundi Somalia India Mauritania Sudan Cameroon Yemen Mozambique Egypt Haiti Cote d’Ivoire Somalia Tunisia India Sudan Mozambique Tunisia Libya Egypt Mauritania Algeria Saudi Arabia Sudan Yemen Oman Morocco Iraq Bahrain Syria Uganda Food riots Lagi, Bertrand & Bar-Yam 2011
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- 13. And marked regional differences in projected increasing wealth Proportion of middle classby region Middle Class: $6,000-$30,000 p.a.
- 14. And we know that per capita daily dietary kCal demand increases with wealth over time Tilman and Clark,Nature 2014 Incl Indonesia
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- 16. 1 2000 Billions of people (indicative; not to scale) 2 3 45 76 8 109 2040 2018 2028 kcal/person/day consumption 2000 The environmental consequences of meeting this demand under current food system practises and consumption trends are dire Costs of triple burden of malnutrition (direct, indirect and lost work days) currently 11% global GDP Looking ahead… Extrapolated calorie consumption The current global cost of the 425m diabetics is $825b/yr; 700m diabetics anticipated Manage Demand Meet Demand
- 17. Food System challenges are interconnected against a background of stresses and shocks Ø natural resource depletion and Ø many stagnating rural economies and Øchanging climate and extreme weather ands Ø social and socio-cultural changes To achieve food security for a growing, wealthier, urbanising population while minimising further environmental degradation
- 18. “The capacity over time of a food system and its units atmultiple levels, to provide sufficient, adequate and accessible food to all, in the face of various and even unforeseen disturbances.” – just relates to Food Security So we need to enhance ‘Food System Resilience’ to these stresses and shocks Enhanced understanding needed to: ü accommodate different perspectives looking at a common problem (esp. concerning multiple societal goals) ü be based on use of evidence in a value-laden debate
- 19. Defining Resilience 4 Questions 1.Of what? 2. To what? 3. For whom? 4. Over what time period? Adapted from: Helfgott, European Journal of Operational Research, 2017
- 20. Food System OUTCOMES Food Utilisation Food Access Food Availability Food SecuritySocial Welfare • Income • Employment •Health • Social capital • Political capital • Ethics • … Environment • Climate change • Water availability • Water quality • Biodiversity • Biogeochemistry • Soil degradation • … Food System Activities to deliver Outcomes 1. Of what? Adapted from: Ingram, Food Security, 2011
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- 22. 2. To what? FoodSystem Stresses and Shocks Stress pressure or tension exerted on a system [Steam Trains] Shock sudden surprising event affecting a system [Black Swans] Demography Trade wars Social & cultural norms Election and Referenda results Natural resource degradation Food scares Climate Extreme weather Urbanisation Conflict Automation Geophysical events Science & technology Geopolitics
- 23. 3. For whom? Foodsystem ‘actors’ Input industry Farmers, fishermen Con- summers Waste process, sewage Subsistence farmers Retailers, food service Food industry Traders, processors
- 24. 4. Over whattime period? • Short-term interruptions (usually due to shocks) to eg: • Fishing or agricultural activities (due to e.g. extreme weather) • Critical ingredient shortfall (due to e.g. disease outbreak) • Just in time groceries delivery (due to e.g. IT malfunction) • Consumer shopping patterns (due to e.g. food scares) • Longer-term disruptions (usually due to stresses) to eg: • Natural resource degradation • Energy price • Low-carbon emission regulations • Change in dietary preferences
- 25. Growing volatility from stressors and shocks needs enhanced resilience 3 Resilience notions 1. Robustness Aim to resist disruption to current outcome 2. Recovery Aim to return to current outcome after disruption [bounce back] 3. Re-orientationAccept alternative outcome after disruption (transformation) [bounce forward] All involve Re-organisation Make changes to the system (adaptation)
- 26. Enhancing Resilience 1 Re-organisethe Food System Activities Do the “doing” words differently
- 27. Enhancing Resilience 2 Re-organisethe Food System ‘Drivers’ Social: education, media, household structure, social movements, health care systems, … Sci & Tech: farm inputs, food processing, food preparation, logistics and health technologies, … Environmental: climate, soil, water, pollution, biodiversity, … Policy: agri-environment schemes, nutrition, labour, health and safety, … Markets: preference, market structure, competition, trade, … Food System Drivers • Demography • Economic context • Socio-political context • Cultural context • Science & Technology • Environment Adapted from: The Institute of Medicine & The National Research Council of the National Academies, 2015
- 28. FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS FOOD AVAILABILITY Food Security Other SocietalInterests • Income • Profit • Rural development • Employment • Health • Environment • Landscape • Ecosystem services • Animal welfare • … Enhancing Resilience 3 Re-organise our ‘views’ on what we want as Food System Outcomes
- 29. Providing a healthy,affordable, and environmentally-friendly diet for all people will require a radical transformation of the system. This will depend on: better farming methods, wealthy nations consuming less meat and countries valuing food which is nutritious rather than cheap. InterAcademy Partnership: 28 Nov 2018 Enhancing Resilience 3 Re-organise our ‘views’ on Food System Outcomes
- 30. ... exists when all people, at all times, have physical, economic and social access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. “enough for a particular purpose; as much as you need” … OED Enhancing Resilience 3 Re-organiseour views of the ‘demand function’
- 31. Sustainable Food System Activities üEnvironmentally sound ü Socially acceptable ü Economically/Enterprise viable Healthy Diet Outcomes ü Calorie and nutrient density ü Quality ü Diversity ü Safe ü Affordable ü Acceptable ü Sufficient “Sustainable diets” “…healthy diets from sustainable food systems”
- 32. DRIVER Interactions Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demographics, Economics, Socio-politicalcontext, Cultural context Science & Technology Environmental DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means, Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling, Biodiversity, Sea level ‘Natural’ DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs, biodiversity Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. nutrition, business, political stability Food Utilisation Food Access Food Availability Food Security A ‘Complex Adaptive System’ Where to intervene, and who does what? Social,Political,Business,S&TandBiophysicalEnvironments Social Welfare Environ- ment
- 33. Ø Complex adaptive system, many interactive ‘drivers’ and feedbacks Ø Set of dynamic actors and activities ØInteractive socioeconomic and environmental outcomes Ø Wide range of power and vested interests; fragmented governance Ø Confused terminology However… Ø Many policy, fiscal, social and technical options for change Ø Multiple options for cooperation among actors Ø Many plausible futures Why is it so hard to make progress?
- 34. 1 2500 Billions of people 2 3 45 76 8 109 2040 2028 kcal/person/day consumption ----------- Too much ------------ ----- Too little -------- Appropriate amount --- Different motives, different agendas … Health & Environment Agenda e.g. WHO, UNEP, WWF, … Further synergies should be possible: will need multi- actor design and delivery – including business. Development Agenda e.g. FAO, CGIAR, CARE, …
- 35. ‘Post-farm gate’ FoodSystem Activities processing, packaging, trading, shipping, storing, advertising, retailing, … => Final Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at shop Productivity Diversity & Quality Local, Regional & Global Production Activities farming, horticulture, livestock raising, aquaculture, fishing, … => Basic Cals/Nutrient Quantity and Price at farm Constraints on dietary choice and diversity affordability, preference, allocation, cooking skill, convenience, cultural norms, … => Consumption by Sub-populations Food System approach highlights roles of food chain actors CONSUMERS PRODUCERS FOOD CHAIN ACTORS Social,Political,Business,S&TandBiophysicalEnvironments Insufficient cals Insufficient nutrs ~ 1 billion Sufficient cals Insufficient nutrs ? 3 billion Excess cals (incl. many with insufficient nutrs) > 2.5 billion Sufficient cals Sufficient nutrs