Simulating flood-peak probability in the Rhine basin and the effect of climat...Aline te Linde
This document summarizes a study that used hydrological modeling and extreme value analysis to simulate flood peak probabilities in the Rhine River basin under current and future climate change scenarios. The study used the GRADE model to generate rainfall-runoff data and simulate the effects of measures like dike heightening and detention areas. The results found that detention areas can significantly reduce flooding depending on the event size, and that climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme peak flooding events. The combined effects of climate change and adaptation measures on extreme flood risks in the Rhine basin were analyzed.
Presentation given by Peter Gibbs, Met Office and BBC broadcast meteorologist, as part of the EDINA Geoforum 2014 event on Thursday 19th June 2014 at the Informatics Forum, University of Edinburgh.
This document analyzes extreme precipitation events in the Gulf region from 1949-2017, with a focus on Hurricane Harvey. It examines rainfall totals from Harvey and other events using grid boxes of different sizes. Harvey had rainfall exceed 50 inches in some locations over multiple days. The analysis ranks the top 100 rainfall events and finds that 24 of these were caused by tropical cyclones, while most others were associated with fronts. It discusses the challenges of analyzing extreme precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales, from individual thunderstorms to hemispheric weather patterns.
Integrating Climate Data Into Forecasting Hydrologic Inflow - Laura Blaylock ...TWCA
This document discusses integrating climate data into water supply forecasting. It notes the uncertainty in water planning due to climate variation, population growth, and limited hydrologic records. It then describes how the Tarrant Regional Water District collaborates with Hydros Consulting to use NASA climate reanalysis data from MERRA-2 to develop predictors correlated to climate indices like the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. These predictors are used to generate probability distributions of future climate states and simulate 100 hydrologic traces in RiverWare to forecast reservoir elevations and inform operations planning.
Climate change is increasing temperatures, precipitation, and sea levels according to indicators like rising CO2 levels, temperature records, and melting ice. This is enhancing transmission of infectious diseases by expanding the habitats of disease-carrying vectors and exposing more humans to vector-, zoonotic-, and waterborne diseases. The World Health Organization warns that vector-borne diseases are changing geographically rapidly due to climate change combined with factors like intensive farming, deforestation, urbanization, and increased travel.
The document summarizes climate change work from the Met Office including the development of climate services to meet adaptation needs. It provides examples of climate services like the Virtual Met Mast tool for wind energy planning and reports on climate modeling projections showing continued warming and changes in precipitation patterns. It also discusses the Met Office's contributions to understanding the recent pause in warming, including the potential role of ocean heat uptake.
1) Observations show extreme precipitation in the Netherlands increases by 7% per degree for daily sums and 14% per degree for 10-minute sums, higher than the expected thermodynamic scaling.
2) This super-scaling can be explained by latent heat release increasing buoyancy and vertical velocities, inducing more moisture convergence and precipitation.
3) Models project different responses for mean and extreme precipitation in a warming climate, with extreme events generally increasing more than mean precipitation. But regional patterns are uncertain and the Netherlands may see increases or decreases depending on other climate factors.
This document discusses climate change impacts in Wales and the need for adaptation. It summarizes the Met Office's research including operating a high-resolution 1.5km climate model over Wales to better understand local weather extremes and projected changes. The Met Office aims to provide climate services including regional predictions of hazards to help infrastructure planning and resilience in Wales.
Simulating flood-peak probability in the Rhine basin and the effect of climat...Aline te Linde
This document summarizes a study that used hydrological modeling and extreme value analysis to simulate flood peak probabilities in the Rhine River basin under current and future climate change scenarios. The study used the GRADE model to generate rainfall-runoff data and simulate the effects of measures like dike heightening and detention areas. The results found that detention areas can significantly reduce flooding depending on the event size, and that climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme peak flooding events. The combined effects of climate change and adaptation measures on extreme flood risks in the Rhine basin were analyzed.
Presentation given by Peter Gibbs, Met Office and BBC broadcast meteorologist, as part of the EDINA Geoforum 2014 event on Thursday 19th June 2014 at the Informatics Forum, University of Edinburgh.
This document analyzes extreme precipitation events in the Gulf region from 1949-2017, with a focus on Hurricane Harvey. It examines rainfall totals from Harvey and other events using grid boxes of different sizes. Harvey had rainfall exceed 50 inches in some locations over multiple days. The analysis ranks the top 100 rainfall events and finds that 24 of these were caused by tropical cyclones, while most others were associated with fronts. It discusses the challenges of analyzing extreme precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales, from individual thunderstorms to hemispheric weather patterns.
Integrating Climate Data Into Forecasting Hydrologic Inflow - Laura Blaylock ...TWCA
This document discusses integrating climate data into water supply forecasting. It notes the uncertainty in water planning due to climate variation, population growth, and limited hydrologic records. It then describes how the Tarrant Regional Water District collaborates with Hydros Consulting to use NASA climate reanalysis data from MERRA-2 to develop predictors correlated to climate indices like the Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. These predictors are used to generate probability distributions of future climate states and simulate 100 hydrologic traces in RiverWare to forecast reservoir elevations and inform operations planning.
Climate change is increasing temperatures, precipitation, and sea levels according to indicators like rising CO2 levels, temperature records, and melting ice. This is enhancing transmission of infectious diseases by expanding the habitats of disease-carrying vectors and exposing more humans to vector-, zoonotic-, and waterborne diseases. The World Health Organization warns that vector-borne diseases are changing geographically rapidly due to climate change combined with factors like intensive farming, deforestation, urbanization, and increased travel.
The document summarizes climate change work from the Met Office including the development of climate services to meet adaptation needs. It provides examples of climate services like the Virtual Met Mast tool for wind energy planning and reports on climate modeling projections showing continued warming and changes in precipitation patterns. It also discusses the Met Office's contributions to understanding the recent pause in warming, including the potential role of ocean heat uptake.
1) Observations show extreme precipitation in the Netherlands increases by 7% per degree for daily sums and 14% per degree for 10-minute sums, higher than the expected thermodynamic scaling.
2) This super-scaling can be explained by latent heat release increasing buoyancy and vertical velocities, inducing more moisture convergence and precipitation.
3) Models project different responses for mean and extreme precipitation in a warming climate, with extreme events generally increasing more than mean precipitation. But regional patterns are uncertain and the Netherlands may see increases or decreases depending on other climate factors.
This document discusses climate change impacts in Wales and the need for adaptation. It summarizes the Met Office's research including operating a high-resolution 1.5km climate model over Wales to better understand local weather extremes and projected changes. The Met Office aims to provide climate services including regional predictions of hazards to help infrastructure planning and resilience in Wales.
This document provides an update on the HGS model development and Phase II project. It includes the following key points:
- The physically-based HGS model accounts for all surface and subsurface water interactions within the Turkey River Watershed, which contains over 12,000 nodes. The model considers factors like evapotranspiration, precipitation, stream flow, land use, and topography.
- Monitoring of stream flow at key locations will help establish baseline conditions and assess the impact of implemented projects on flood reduction and water quality. Three monitoring platforms will be installed to validate precipitation events.
- Phase II will focus on selecting project sites, designing and constructing projects like ponds, wetlands, and floodplain easements
Peatland hydrological drought and fire risk assessment in changing climateCIFOR-ICRAF
Presented by Muh. Taufik, lecturer of Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia, at "Online Webinar 2: Biophysical Attributes and Peatland Fires", on 14 October 2020
This speaker shared information about research on the assessment of the hydrological condition and fire risk in degraded peatland and restored peatland. This presentation also showed the importance of peatland rewetting and elevating groundwater table in reducing fire hazards in tropical peatlands.
DSD-INT 2019 A new hydrological modelling framework for the Rhine - van Osnab...Deltares
Presentation by Bart van Osnabrugge, Wageningen University and Deltares, at the wflow - User Day (Developments in distributed hydrological modelling), during Delft Software Days - Edition 2019. Friday, 08 November 2019, Delft.
Monitoring tropical peatlands GHG emissions: Is current scientific knowledge ...CIFOR-ICRAF
Presented by Kristell Hergoualc’h, Senior Scientist, CIFOR, at "Online Webinar 2: Biophysical Attributes and Peatland Fires", on 14 October 2020
This presentation underlined existing gaps in data and knowledge on GHG emissions accounting for tropical peatland after restoration efforts. She also shared insights about how GHG emissions can arise from a range of human activities and microbial activities.
Presentation - Climate Change in Lower Mekong RiverTing Ting Lee
This document summarizes a student's research on the hydrological effects of climate change in the Mekong River. The research aims to investigate how global warming may impact runoff, potential evapotranspiration, sedimentation, and saline intrusion in the Lower Mekong Basin. The results suggest runoff will increase during the weak monsoon season from November to February due to higher winter temperatures and increased snowmelt. More fine sediments like clay and silt are also expected to move through the river system as a result of changes in discharge and temperature. However, accurately simulating sedimentation levels over time remains challenging due to lack of long-term data. Overall, climate change is anticipated to bring higher precipitation and discharge to
This document summarizes a study on the impact of climate change on water availability in the Oebobolili Bawatershed in Kupang City, Indonesia under two climate change scenarios, RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. The study finds that under the RCP 2.6 scenario, temperatures are projected to increase by 0.86°C from 2046-2065 and 2.25°C from 2081-2100, leading to higher evapotranspiration and reduced rainfall runoff. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, temperatures are projected to increase by 0.83°C and 2.13°C in the same time periods, resulting in even lower rainfall runoff.
DSD-INT 2021 Keynote - The IPCC AR6 assessment - What’s in it for FEWS - van ...Deltares
Presentation by Bart van den Hurk, Scientific Director at Deltares, at the Delft-FEWS User Days (Day 1), during Delft Software Days - Edition 2021. Monday, 8 November 2021.
Effects of Climatic Changes on Surface and Groundwater Resources in the North...Agriculture Journal IJOEAR
Abstract— During the last 5 decades precipitation records in Jordan have shown a general decreasing trend. Such decreases have certainly their impacts on the availability of surface and groundwater, on soil moisture contents (green water) and on the surface and groundwater qualities.
In this article the impacts of decreasing precipitation on the availability of surface and groundwater will be analyzed.
The results show that a decrease in precipitation of 10% will result in the reduction of flood runoff by about 39%, and a reduction in groundwater recharge of 16% in rain rich areas receiving more than 500mm/yr increasing to 59% in areas receiving moderate precipitation of around 300mm/yr.
Where does the water we drink come from? Is there enough for everyone? Where will it come from?
Hong Kong's water supply comes from two sources: the rainfall we collect in our reservoirs (20-30%) and water we buy from the Mainland (70-80%). The current agreement for water from the Dongjiang, a tributary of the Pearl River, will expire in 2015. With demand for water growing sharply throughout the Pearl River Delta and the supply of water compromised by pollution and climate change, Hong Kong's future access to clean water is far from certain.
In our drive to become a sustainable city, should Hong Kong become self-sufficient? Should we increase the size of our reservoirs? Follow Singapore and recycle our waste water? Build plants to desalinate seawater? What other possible methods are there? Who's going to pay?
CitySpeak invites you to join Hong Kong officials, academics and planners in this discussion about our water issues.
The keynote speaker is Mr. LT Ma, Director of the Water Supplies Department, who will set the scene and outline the current situation in Hong Kong. The discussion will be moderated by Mr. Mike Kilburn, Environmental Programme Manager, Civic Exchange.
Background reading
"Liquid Assets -- Water security and management in the Pearl River Basin and Hong Kong" by Civic Exchange, November 2009 (http://www.civic-exchange.org/eng/upload/files/091204LiquidAssets.pdf). For more information about water in China, visit http://www.asiawaterproject.org/. Civic Exchange is a Hong Kong independent non-profit think tank. See: www.civic-exchange.org
Designing Hong Kong is a not-for-profit organisation focused on sustainable urban planning. See: www.designinghongkong.com
The 2018 drought significantly impacted the carbon, water and energy dynamics of a mature Sitka spruce forest and a recently restocked clear-felling site located on organo-mineral soil. At both sites, low precipitation and high evapotranspiration rates during the drought led to soil water depletion that did not recover by the end of 2018. This caused reduced photosynthesis, higher water stress, and lower carbon sink strength compared to previous years. Specifically, the mature forest shifted from a strong carbon sink to neutral, while the restocked site became a carbon source. The drought also increased heat losses through transpiration and latent heat flux at both sites.
CSA Symposium 2016 - Dr. Teddy Allen Day 1 Session 2ACDI/VOCA
The Keech-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a numerical scale ranging from 0 to 800 that indicates the net effect of evapotranspiration and rainfall in producing soil moisture depletion important for wildfire potential. A higher KBDI indicates more severe drought conditions and lower fuel moisture, contributing to increased wildfire risk. The document discusses how the KBDI is calculated daily based on temperature, rainfall, and soil moisture factors. It also analyzes historical KBDI levels and drought conditions in Jamaica that influence wildfire risk assessments.
Pakistan has three main weather seasons - winter from November to March, summer from April to July, and monsoon from July to September. Global warming refers to the long-term rise in Earth's temperatures due to increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities like burning fossil fuels. Scientists are over 95% certain that global warming is primarily caused by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions that are enhancing the natural greenhouse effect and trapping more heat in the lower atmosphere. If left unaddressed, global warming has the potential to significantly impact climate conditions around the world.
The document discusses using top-down methods based on atmospheric concentration measurements to estimate national greenhouse gas emissions as a complement to traditional bottom-up inventory methods. It outlines challenges with bottom-up and top-down approaches and provides examples of countries already using top-down estimates. The document proposes a new concept where global prior emissions are estimated using inversions and enhanced with national source category data. Benefits include focusing on climate-relevant concentration data, overcoming accuracy limits of bottom-up estimates, and providing independent verification. Top-down estimates could play a stronger role in future by focusing bottom-up methods on emission hotspots to reduce uncertainty.
07 lutes slides for epa 2018 workshop moisturev5Chris Lutes
Lutes, C. “Indicators, Tracers, and Surrogates of Chlorinated Vapor Intrusion – Potential for
Rain, Soil Moisture, Water Table, Snow and Ice” oral presentation at EPA Workshop at 28th Annual AEHS International West Coast Conference on Soils, Water, Energy and Air, March 20, 2018.
1) Integrated modeling of surface water and groundwater systems poses numerous technical and non-technical challenges. The shallow subsurface where integration occurs is highly complex and transient.
2) A general strategy for integrated model development involves identifying areas of strong interaction, integrating data and tools, conceptualizing the shallow system, developing sub-models, conducting initial and refined simulations, and achieving a final integrated calibration.
3) Key technical issues include compensating errors between models, limitations in conceptual models, and the need to consider dynamic feedback between surface water and groundwater. Non-technical issues include knowledge limitations between disciplines and effective project management.
The document describes a new approach to interpolating climate data in Australia called ANUClimate. It provides high resolution (1km) daily and monthly climate surfaces for temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed and other variables from 1970-2011. The summaries will be delivered to the Research Data Storage Infrastructure (RDSI) by the end of 2013, improving temperature estimates by 25% and precipitation estimates by 7-15% compared to previous methods. The new approach uses an improved background-anomaly-interpolation method that can effectively model temperature and rainfall patterns and accounts for topography and coastal influences better than previous methods.
Hydrology/Hydraulic Model for South Boston CSO Project dingfangliu
The document discusses modeling of wet weather flow for a sewer separation project in South Boston, Massachusetts. It summarizes modeling of existing conditions, calibration of the model, and modeling of future conditions under various levels of sewer separation. The modeling found that a 92% separation level is needed to meet long-term water quality goals of less than 3 combined sewer overflows per year with volumes under 1.5 million gallons each.
This document summarizes a master's thesis that evaluates the effects of precipitation extremes on watershed hydrology under current and projected future climate conditions using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The research focuses on the Cobb Creek Watershed in Georgia. Results show that high intensity precipitation events could increase watershed discharge by nearly 50% by 2060-2064 according to climate projections. Peak flows may rise by almost 30% and shifts in seasonal rainfall patterns are also possible. The study highlights the need for sustainable water management and planning that considers potential climate change impacts.
This document provides an update on the HGS model development and Phase II project. It includes the following key points:
- The physically-based HGS model accounts for all surface and subsurface water interactions within the Turkey River Watershed, which contains over 12,000 nodes. The model considers factors like evapotranspiration, precipitation, stream flow, land use, and topography.
- Monitoring of stream flow at key locations will help establish baseline conditions and assess the impact of implemented projects on flood reduction and water quality. Three monitoring platforms will be installed to validate precipitation events.
- Phase II will focus on selecting project sites, designing and constructing projects like ponds, wetlands, and floodplain easements
Peatland hydrological drought and fire risk assessment in changing climateCIFOR-ICRAF
Presented by Muh. Taufik, lecturer of Department of Geophysics and Meteorology, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia, at "Online Webinar 2: Biophysical Attributes and Peatland Fires", on 14 October 2020
This speaker shared information about research on the assessment of the hydrological condition and fire risk in degraded peatland and restored peatland. This presentation also showed the importance of peatland rewetting and elevating groundwater table in reducing fire hazards in tropical peatlands.
DSD-INT 2019 A new hydrological modelling framework for the Rhine - van Osnab...Deltares
Presentation by Bart van Osnabrugge, Wageningen University and Deltares, at the wflow - User Day (Developments in distributed hydrological modelling), during Delft Software Days - Edition 2019. Friday, 08 November 2019, Delft.
Monitoring tropical peatlands GHG emissions: Is current scientific knowledge ...CIFOR-ICRAF
Presented by Kristell Hergoualc’h, Senior Scientist, CIFOR, at "Online Webinar 2: Biophysical Attributes and Peatland Fires", on 14 October 2020
This presentation underlined existing gaps in data and knowledge on GHG emissions accounting for tropical peatland after restoration efforts. She also shared insights about how GHG emissions can arise from a range of human activities and microbial activities.
Presentation - Climate Change in Lower Mekong RiverTing Ting Lee
This document summarizes a student's research on the hydrological effects of climate change in the Mekong River. The research aims to investigate how global warming may impact runoff, potential evapotranspiration, sedimentation, and saline intrusion in the Lower Mekong Basin. The results suggest runoff will increase during the weak monsoon season from November to February due to higher winter temperatures and increased snowmelt. More fine sediments like clay and silt are also expected to move through the river system as a result of changes in discharge and temperature. However, accurately simulating sedimentation levels over time remains challenging due to lack of long-term data. Overall, climate change is anticipated to bring higher precipitation and discharge to
This document summarizes a study on the impact of climate change on water availability in the Oebobolili Bawatershed in Kupang City, Indonesia under two climate change scenarios, RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. The study finds that under the RCP 2.6 scenario, temperatures are projected to increase by 0.86°C from 2046-2065 and 2.25°C from 2081-2100, leading to higher evapotranspiration and reduced rainfall runoff. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, temperatures are projected to increase by 0.83°C and 2.13°C in the same time periods, resulting in even lower rainfall runoff.
DSD-INT 2021 Keynote - The IPCC AR6 assessment - What’s in it for FEWS - van ...Deltares
Presentation by Bart van den Hurk, Scientific Director at Deltares, at the Delft-FEWS User Days (Day 1), during Delft Software Days - Edition 2021. Monday, 8 November 2021.
Effects of Climatic Changes on Surface and Groundwater Resources in the North...Agriculture Journal IJOEAR
Abstract— During the last 5 decades precipitation records in Jordan have shown a general decreasing trend. Such decreases have certainly their impacts on the availability of surface and groundwater, on soil moisture contents (green water) and on the surface and groundwater qualities.
In this article the impacts of decreasing precipitation on the availability of surface and groundwater will be analyzed.
The results show that a decrease in precipitation of 10% will result in the reduction of flood runoff by about 39%, and a reduction in groundwater recharge of 16% in rain rich areas receiving more than 500mm/yr increasing to 59% in areas receiving moderate precipitation of around 300mm/yr.
Where does the water we drink come from? Is there enough for everyone? Where will it come from?
Hong Kong's water supply comes from two sources: the rainfall we collect in our reservoirs (20-30%) and water we buy from the Mainland (70-80%). The current agreement for water from the Dongjiang, a tributary of the Pearl River, will expire in 2015. With demand for water growing sharply throughout the Pearl River Delta and the supply of water compromised by pollution and climate change, Hong Kong's future access to clean water is far from certain.
In our drive to become a sustainable city, should Hong Kong become self-sufficient? Should we increase the size of our reservoirs? Follow Singapore and recycle our waste water? Build plants to desalinate seawater? What other possible methods are there? Who's going to pay?
CitySpeak invites you to join Hong Kong officials, academics and planners in this discussion about our water issues.
The keynote speaker is Mr. LT Ma, Director of the Water Supplies Department, who will set the scene and outline the current situation in Hong Kong. The discussion will be moderated by Mr. Mike Kilburn, Environmental Programme Manager, Civic Exchange.
Background reading
"Liquid Assets -- Water security and management in the Pearl River Basin and Hong Kong" by Civic Exchange, November 2009 (http://www.civic-exchange.org/eng/upload/files/091204LiquidAssets.pdf). For more information about water in China, visit http://www.asiawaterproject.org/. Civic Exchange is a Hong Kong independent non-profit think tank. See: www.civic-exchange.org
Designing Hong Kong is a not-for-profit organisation focused on sustainable urban planning. See: www.designinghongkong.com
The 2018 drought significantly impacted the carbon, water and energy dynamics of a mature Sitka spruce forest and a recently restocked clear-felling site located on organo-mineral soil. At both sites, low precipitation and high evapotranspiration rates during the drought led to soil water depletion that did not recover by the end of 2018. This caused reduced photosynthesis, higher water stress, and lower carbon sink strength compared to previous years. Specifically, the mature forest shifted from a strong carbon sink to neutral, while the restocked site became a carbon source. The drought also increased heat losses through transpiration and latent heat flux at both sites.
CSA Symposium 2016 - Dr. Teddy Allen Day 1 Session 2ACDI/VOCA
The Keech-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a numerical scale ranging from 0 to 800 that indicates the net effect of evapotranspiration and rainfall in producing soil moisture depletion important for wildfire potential. A higher KBDI indicates more severe drought conditions and lower fuel moisture, contributing to increased wildfire risk. The document discusses how the KBDI is calculated daily based on temperature, rainfall, and soil moisture factors. It also analyzes historical KBDI levels and drought conditions in Jamaica that influence wildfire risk assessments.
Pakistan has three main weather seasons - winter from November to March, summer from April to July, and monsoon from July to September. Global warming refers to the long-term rise in Earth's temperatures due to increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities like burning fossil fuels. Scientists are over 95% certain that global warming is primarily caused by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions that are enhancing the natural greenhouse effect and trapping more heat in the lower atmosphere. If left unaddressed, global warming has the potential to significantly impact climate conditions around the world.
The document discusses using top-down methods based on atmospheric concentration measurements to estimate national greenhouse gas emissions as a complement to traditional bottom-up inventory methods. It outlines challenges with bottom-up and top-down approaches and provides examples of countries already using top-down estimates. The document proposes a new concept where global prior emissions are estimated using inversions and enhanced with national source category data. Benefits include focusing on climate-relevant concentration data, overcoming accuracy limits of bottom-up estimates, and providing independent verification. Top-down estimates could play a stronger role in future by focusing bottom-up methods on emission hotspots to reduce uncertainty.
07 lutes slides for epa 2018 workshop moisturev5Chris Lutes
Lutes, C. “Indicators, Tracers, and Surrogates of Chlorinated Vapor Intrusion – Potential for
Rain, Soil Moisture, Water Table, Snow and Ice” oral presentation at EPA Workshop at 28th Annual AEHS International West Coast Conference on Soils, Water, Energy and Air, March 20, 2018.
1) Integrated modeling of surface water and groundwater systems poses numerous technical and non-technical challenges. The shallow subsurface where integration occurs is highly complex and transient.
2) A general strategy for integrated model development involves identifying areas of strong interaction, integrating data and tools, conceptualizing the shallow system, developing sub-models, conducting initial and refined simulations, and achieving a final integrated calibration.
3) Key technical issues include compensating errors between models, limitations in conceptual models, and the need to consider dynamic feedback between surface water and groundwater. Non-technical issues include knowledge limitations between disciplines and effective project management.
The document describes a new approach to interpolating climate data in Australia called ANUClimate. It provides high resolution (1km) daily and monthly climate surfaces for temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed and other variables from 1970-2011. The summaries will be delivered to the Research Data Storage Infrastructure (RDSI) by the end of 2013, improving temperature estimates by 25% and precipitation estimates by 7-15% compared to previous methods. The new approach uses an improved background-anomaly-interpolation method that can effectively model temperature and rainfall patterns and accounts for topography and coastal influences better than previous methods.
Hydrology/Hydraulic Model for South Boston CSO Project dingfangliu
The document discusses modeling of wet weather flow for a sewer separation project in South Boston, Massachusetts. It summarizes modeling of existing conditions, calibration of the model, and modeling of future conditions under various levels of sewer separation. The modeling found that a 92% separation level is needed to meet long-term water quality goals of less than 3 combined sewer overflows per year with volumes under 1.5 million gallons each.
This document summarizes a master's thesis that evaluates the effects of precipitation extremes on watershed hydrology under current and projected future climate conditions using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The research focuses on the Cobb Creek Watershed in Georgia. Results show that high intensity precipitation events could increase watershed discharge by nearly 50% by 2060-2064 according to climate projections. Peak flows may rise by almost 30% and shifts in seasonal rainfall patterns are also possible. The study highlights the need for sustainable water management and planning that considers potential climate change impacts.
Master's course defense presentation in Water Resource Management and GIS Tooryalay Ayoubi
1) The document summarizes a master's thesis that used the SWAT hydrological model within a GIS to simulate surface runoff in the Panjshir watershed in Afghanistan.
2) Key results included monthly and daily surface runoff predictions that matched observed discharge data with R2 values of 0.815 for calibration and 0.817 for validation.
3) The study also found that land use changes between 1993-2010 increased total water yield in the watershed, with average annual changes ranging from 1.2-4.5% between scenarios.
This document outlines future work on assessing the impact of climate change and sea level rise on stormwater infrastructure in the Hampton Roads region of Virginia. The work has two main objectives: 1) Update design storms based on climate projections to account for increased storm intensity, duration and frequency. 2) Perform hydrologic and hydraulic modeling to identify vulnerable transportation infrastructure considering factors like sea level rise causing backups in storm sewers. The results will help local planners prioritize flood mitigation efforts.
This thesis analyzes the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Lake Tana basin in Ethiopia using a hydrological model. The study finds that precipitation and runoff are projected to increase in the basin in the future according to climate models and scenarios. Temperature is also projected to rise substantially. This will likely improve water availability but could negatively impact harvesting and increase flooding risks. The study recommends using additional climate models and the latest scenarios to improve uncertainty.
This study used the SWAT model to simulate the impacts of climate change scenarios on the hydrology of the Jatiluhur Reservoir Catchment Area in West Java, Indonesia. The scenarios included a 10% increase in precipitation, 15% decrease in rainfall, 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature, and a combination scenario of 10% more rain and 1 degree higher temperature. The modeling results showed that increased rainfall led to higher runoff and water yield, while decreased rainfall and higher temperatures reduced runoff but increased evapotranspiration. The combined scenario of more rain and heat produced runoff and water yield increases between 20-38% compared to existing conditions. The study concluded climate change will affect watershed hydrology and adaptations are needed
The document provides an overview of findings from a climate risk and vulnerability assessment for the Nam Ngiep 1 hydropower project in Laos. It identifies the most significant climate change impacts as an increased potential for energy production but also a dramatic rise in spillway usage accelerating wear. Moderate impacts include reduced reservoir storage and water quality issues. Monitoring critical thresholds and preventative catchment measures are recommended, along with studies on adaptation opportunities.
Understanding Who is AT RISK - Flood extent modellingAlex Nwoko
Understanding Flood Risk Using Surface Flood Extent Modelling. This study used ArcMap and HECRAS to evaluate flood risk exposure of River Wansbeck in Morpeth, UK.
Climate Change Impact Assessment on Hydrological Regime of Kali Gandaki BasinHI-AWARE
The presentation focuses on the findings of the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime and water balance components of the Kali Gandaki basin in Nepal. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to predict future projections.
Climate change will impact water resources in Egypt through changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of droughts and floods. Hydrological modeling is used to evaluate these climate change impacts. Such models are forced using downscaled output from global climate models to project changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios. This allows assessment of climate change impacts on water resources systems and evaluation of adaptation policies to mitigate impacts. However, uncertainties remain regarding climate projections and how to scale global data to local levels, highlighting the need for improved modeling approaches.
This study developed a rainfall-runoff model using HEC-HMS to simulate runoff from Irwin Creek watershed in Charlotte, North Carolina under current and future climate change precipitation scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using stream gauge data and produced comparable results. Simulation of design storms indicated that an 18% increase in storm depth due to climate change could increase peak discharge by 43%. The study concluded HEC-HMS is a useful tool for watershed modeling and that future flood management should consider potential impacts of climate change.
Day 2 divas basnet, nepal development research institute (ndri), nepal, arrcc...ICIMOD
This document discusses a climate risk assessment of the hydropower sector in Nepal and the issues around using climate projections. It notes that Nepal has complex climate, hydrology and topography that makes future climate change highly uncertain. Some challenges in using climate projections include deep uncertainty in the projections due to data scarcity and model limitations. Downscaling and bias correction of projections is difficult due to scarce observations and current climate variability. Climate models have varying skill in modeling the Asian monsoon, especially in mountainous regions like the Himalayas. There are also communication gaps between climate scientists, hydrologists, and decision makers regarding the principles and dynamics of climate models.
Key Tools for Businesses: An overview of tools and resources that can help businesses address priority resilience issues. Resilience Green Infrastructure presented by James Houle, Stormwater Center, University of New Hampshire.
This document discusses approaches to assessing cumulative effects through integrated modelling. It summarizes two case studies: 1) assessing cumulative drawdown impacts from multiple quarry excavations on a municipal well using integrated surface water and groundwater modelling, and 2) comparing the drought response of three watersheds on the Oro Moraine using a fully integrated surface water and groundwater model under climate change scenarios. The key conclusions are that cumulative effects analysis requires considering the complete water system and understanding system behavior will enable future management, and integrated modelling is essential for advanced scenario analysis of issues like drought and climate change.
The document summarizes a study on the downstream impacts of the Melamchi Inter-basin Water Transfer Plan (MIWTP) under current and future climate change projections. The study uses hydrological models to quantify the flow reduction in sub-basins downstream of water transfer points under current conditions and climate change scenarios for 2030s and 2050s. The results show flow reductions of less than 12% annually in the immediately downstream sub-basins. Crop water requirements are also assessed, finding no water stress issues in the future under normal or intensive water use scenarios.
The document discusses the national and regional direction of stormwater programs. It summarizes recent EPA activities including a National Research Council report recommending that stormwater programs regulate flow rather than pollutants. The document also outlines EPA's plan to develop consistent stormwater regulations through rulemaking, including establishing post-construction requirements and expanding coverage to additional discharges. Region 4 expects future MS4 permits to include clearer, more specific, and enforceable requirements.
City of Markham IDF & Design Hyetograph Review Robert Muir
Review of historical Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) data in Markham, Ontario, Canada as well as IDF trends in southern Ontario and across Canada. Presented to the Southern Ontario Municipal Stormwater Discussion Group. Comparison with Insurance Industry and media reporting on climate change effects (e.g., Telling the Weather Story). Review of design hyetographs and design standards updates to improve resiliency.
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Similar to IUKWC Workshop Nov16: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security – Session 3 – Item 5 P_Mani (20)
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BASIC CONCEPT OF ENVIRONMENT AND DIFFERENT CONSTITUTENET OF ENVIRONMENT
IUKWC Workshop Nov16: Developing Hydro-climatic Services for Water Security – Session 3 – Item 5 P_Mani
1. Incorporating Climate Change Impacts in Estimating
Design Basis Flood Level at a Project Site
Pankaj Mani
(mailofpmani@yahoo.com)
National Institute of Hydrology,
Patna
2. Climate Change impacts on Water
Resources Projects
• Design flood hydrograph is a key input for Water
Resources Projects particularly flood protection/
management works.
• The design flood is computed by convoluting design storm
with unit hydrograph.
• The general prediction from climate change research
indicates comparatively more vigorous hydrological cycle
resulting into
– increased precipitation (intense storm with altered temporal
distribution)
– Increased evaporation rates
• This in turn affect the design storm and further the design
flood and then the maximum flood level
3. % increase in peak of flood
hydrograph with % increase in peak
of UH
4. % decrease in peak of flood
hydrograph with loss rate
9. 9
• Breach in FBC
• Breach in BML
• Catchment flooding
• Local site rainfall
Effect of climate change on maximum flood
level at a plant site
Case Study: NPCIL, Harayana
11. 11
Rainfall estimate is increased
by 15% to account for the
future climate change
The maximum flood level is
computed as RL 218.25 m
which was otherwise RL
218.15 m.
An increase of 0.1 m is
computed due to increase in
rainfall estimate by 15%
Effect of climate change on maximum flood
level at a plant site
14. Effect of climate change on maximum flood
level at a plant site
Various sources of flooding:
Upstream catchments floods
Back water effect of Bargi dam
Failure of upstream dams
Local site rainfall
15. 15
The impact of climate change has been considered by increasing the rainfall
by 15% and thus the corresponding river flow is computed and its effect on
flooding has been estimated as 2.02 m.
Effect of climate change on maximum flood
level at a plant site