ITS 832 Chapter 5 From Building a Model to Adaptive Robust Decision Making Using Systems Modeling Information Technology in a Global Economy Professor Michael Solomon Introduction • Systems modeling • Focus on decision making abilities • Legacy System Dynamics (SD) modeling • Recent innovations • What the future holds • Examples Systems modeling • Dynamic complexity • Behavior evolves over time • Modeling methods • System Dynamics (CD) • Discrete Event Simulation (DES) • Multi-actor Systems Modeling (MAS) • Agent-based Modeling (ABM) • Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling (CAS) • Enhanced computing supports model based decision making • Modeling and simulation has become interdisciplinary • Operation research, policy analysis, data analytics, machine learning, computer science Legacy System Dynamics Modeling • 1950s – Jay W. Forrester • Primary characteristics • Feedback effects – dependent on their own past • Accumulation effects – building up intangibles • Behavior of a system is explained • Casual theory – model generates dynamic behavior • Works well when • Complex system responds to feedback and accumulation Recent Innovations • Detailed list of individual innovations • Deep uncertainty • Analysts do not know or cannot agree on • Model • Probability distributions of key features • Value of alternative outcomes • Two primary evolutions • Smarter methods (Data Science) • Usability/accessibility advances What the Future Holds • Better models • More data (“Big Data”) • Social media • Advanced capabilities for • Hybrid modeling • Simultaneous modeling Modeling and Simulation Examples • Assessing the Risk, and Monitoring, of New Infectious Diseases • Simple systems model with deep uncertainty • Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis Under Deep Uncertainty • System-of-systems approach • Policing Under Deep Uncertainty • Smart model-based decision support system Summary • Modeling has long been used with complex systems • Recent evolutions have advanced modeling • Increase computing power • Social media and Big data • Sophisticated analytics • Multi-method and hybrid approaches are now feasible • Continued move into interdisciplinary study • Advanced modeling for complex systems ANSWER TO THIS TWO STUDENTS. Jacqueline Kash 9/26/19, 12:06 AM Top of Form · What characteristics of effective written communication lead to quality psychology research writing? Why? Choosing the words that will help people to stay interested in what is being writing. The way your wright the paper that people are reading can also help for people to stay more interest. Like writing a long sentence and then a short sentences can make it easier for people to stay more interested.(Beins & Beins, 2012, p.81) Something that can help the way to keep readers interested is to help your reader to know how to read the part of the paper this helps them to know how to put together that part of the paper with the rest. W.

1. ITS 832
Chapter 5
From Building a Model to Adaptive Robust
Decision Making Using Systems Modeling
Information Technology in a Global Economy
Professor Michael Solomon
Introduction
• Systems modeling
• Focus on decision making abilities
• Legacy System Dynamics (SD) modeling
• Recent innovations
• What the future holds
• Examples
Systems modeling
• Dynamic complexity
• Behavior evolves over time
• Modeling methods
• System Dynamics (CD)
• Discrete Event Simulation (DES)

2. • Multi-actor Systems Modeling (MAS)
• Agent-based Modeling (ABM)
• Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling (CAS)
• Enhanced computing supports model based decision making
• Modeling and simulation has become interdisciplinary
• Operation research, policy analysis, data analytics, machine
learning,
computer science
Legacy System Dynamics Modeling
• 1950s – Jay W. Forrester
• Primary characteristics
• Feedback effects – dependent on their own past
• Accumulation effects – building up intangibles
• Behavior of a system is explained
• Casual theory – model generates dynamic behavior
• Works well when
• Complex system responds to feedback and accumulation
Recent Innovations
• Detailed list of individual innovations
• Deep uncertainty
• Analysts do not know or cannot agree on

3. • Model
• Probability distributions of key features
• Value of alternative outcomes
• Two primary evolutions
• Smarter methods (Data Science)
• Usability/accessibility advances
What the Future Holds
• Better models
• More data (“Big Data”)
• Social media
• Advanced capabilities for
• Hybrid modeling
• Simultaneous modeling
Modeling and Simulation
Examples
• Assessing the Risk, and Monitoring, of New Infectious
Diseases
• Simple systems model with deep uncertainty

4. • Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis Under Deep
Uncertainty
• System-of-systems approach
• Policing Under Deep Uncertainty
• Smart model-based decision support system
Summary
• Modeling has long been used with complex systems
• Recent evolutions have advanced modeling
• Increase computing power
• Social media and Big data
• Sophisticated analytics
• Multi-method and hybrid approaches are now feasible
• Continued move into interdisciplinary study
• Advanced modeling for complex systems
ANSWER TO THIS TWO STUDENTS.
Jacqueline Kash
9/26/19, 12:06 AM
Top of Form
· What characteristics of effective written communication lead

5. to quality psychology research writing? Why?
Choosing the words that will help people to stay interested in
what is being writing. The way your wright the paper that
people are reading can also help for people to stay more
interest. Like writing a long sentence and then a short sentences
can make it easier for people to stay more interested.(Beins &
Beins, 2012, p.81) Something that can help the way to keep
readers interested is to help your reader to know how to read the
part of the paper this helps them to know how to put together
that part of the paper with the rest. When the paper can keep
people interested this helps them to understand what is being
write. This allows for the person reading to be able to read and
understand the research and to be able to use it the best way
they can.
· How does effective oral communication differ from effective
written communication? What effective oral communication
skills do you possess? How do you use these skills in your
workplace?
When A person is communicating oral the people that then
information is being given to can only take in so much
information. When the information is to much they can not
retainer the information. Now when it is written then they can
take in more because they can go back and look at the
information if they don't remember something that is being said.
The ones that I use in my work place every day are Be clear.
When I am talking with residents they haqve to be able to
understand what is being said to them and it need to be clear.
Don't talk to much the hole thing with this is working with the
elderly you don't always have to say a lot. Some times the lease
u say the better they can understand you.
Beins, B. C., & Beins, A. M. (2012). Choosing Effective
Wording. In Effective Writing in Psychology: Papers,
Posters,and Presentations.

6. Carla Moser
9/25/19, 10:50 PM
Top of Form
Characteristics of effective written communication lead to
quality psychology research writing?
The advantage of a written presentation is the reader can go
back and review the background you
Cite, review your mythology, evaluate your results to judge if
they are appropriate, and justify your results.
A written document is a permanent document that the reader can
go back to at will
How does effective oral communication differ from effective
written communication?
If you are delivering the research in a oral presentation you
cannot pack the same level of detail into the
presentation and expect the audience to understand your ideas.
In an oral communication limit
yourself to three of four main points for listeners to remember.
The effective oral communication skills that I use at the
workplace; I work at a retail store where I am one of the
assistant
Managers I deal with customers issues and employee issues to
name a few; but with employees
I help them with social problem, personal problems sometimes
it can be a behavioral problem; it just ranges from day
today.
Beins B.C & Beins A.M Effective Writing in Psychology
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