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Investigation of Epidemic
Dr.S.Sujatha MD.,DPH.,
Assistant Professor,
Department of Community Medicine
Chengalpattu Medical College
12 May 2018 2Chengalpattu Medical College
Spot Map
12 May 2018 3Chengalpattu Medical College
12 May 2018 4Chengalpattu Medical College
12 May 2018 5Chengalpattu Medical College
Vibrio Cholera
Robert Koch
Vibrio Cholera 1883
Filippo Pacini
Vibrio Cholera 1854
12 May 2018 6Chengalpattu Medical College
What is an outbreak ?
Occurrence of more cases of disease than
expected
in a given area
among a specific group of people
over a particular period of time
12 May 2018 7Chengalpattu Medical College
Why investigate outbreaks?
 Stop the outbreak
Find and neutralise the source (cause)
Prevent additional cases
 Prevent future outbreaks
 Improve surveillance and outbreak detection
 Improve our knowledge
 Keep the public’s confidence
12 May 2018 8Chengalpattu Medical College
Specific Demands
When Investigating Outbreaks
 Unexpected event
 Act quickly
 Rapid control
 Bias caused by media reports
 Legal and financial pressure
 Interdisciplinary coordination
 Work carried out in the field
12 May 2018 9Chengalpattu Medical College
Steps of an Outbreak Investigation
1. Verification of Diagnosis
2. Confirmation of the existence of an Epidemic
3. Define a case , population at risk
4. Rapid search of all cases & obtain information
5. Describe data collected and data analysis
6. Develop hypothesis
7. Test hypothesis: analytical studies
8. Evaluation of Ecological Factors
9. Further investigation of population at risk
10. Communicate results,
including outbreak report
control measures & preventive measures
12 May 2018 10Chengalpattu Medical College
Detection
Routine surveillance
Clinical / Laboratory
General public
Media
12 May 2018 11Chengalpattu Medical College
Confirm outbreak and diagnosis
Is this an outbreak?
• More cases than expected?
• Surveillance data
• Surveys: hospitals, labs, physicians
12 May 2018 12Chengalpattu Medical College
Confirm outbreak and diagnosis
• Laboratory confirmation
– serology
– isolates, typing of isolates
– toxic agents
• Contact (visit) the laboratories
• Meet attending physicians
• Examine some cases
Not always necessary to confirm all the cases
but confirm a proportion
throughout the outbreak
12 May 2018 13Chengalpattu Medical College
Outbreak confirmed 
Immediate control
measures?
Further
investigation?
Treatment
prophylaxis
exclusion / isolation
public warning
hygienic measures
others
aetiological agent
mode of transmission
vehicle of transmission
source of contamination
population at risk
exposure causing illness
12 May 2018 14Chengalpattu Medical College
Team coordinates
field investigation
Outbreak confirmed,
further investigations warranted
Form Outbreak
Control Team?
12 May 2018 15Chengalpattu Medical College
Identify &
count cases
notifications
laboratories
hospitals, GPs
schools
workplace,
cases,
media, etc
Identify &
count cases
Obtain
information
Identifying information
Demographic information
Clinical details
Exposures and known risk
factors
Identify &
count cases
Obtain
information
Analysis of descriptive
data
Describe in
 time
 place
 person
Descriptive epidemiology
- Who are the cases? (person)
- Where do they live? (place)
- When did they become ill? (time)
12 May 2018 19Chengalpattu Medical College
Epidemic Curve
• Histogram
• Distribution of cases by time of onset of symptoms,
diagnosis or identification
– time interval depends on incubation period
12 May 2018 20Chengalpattu Medical College
Epidemic curve
Describe
start, end, duration
peak
importance
atypical cases
Helps to develop hypotheses
incubation period
etiological agent
type of source
type of transmission
time of exposure
12 May 2018 21Chengalpattu Medical College
Point Source Epidemic- Food poisoning
12 May 2018 Chengalpattu Medical College 22
Continuing Common Source- Gonorrhoea
outbreak by a prostitute
12 May 2018 Chengalpattu Medical College 23
Intermittant outbreak- by a carrier of
Pseudomonas aeruginosa
12 May 2018 Chengalpattu Medical College 24
Propagated Epidemic- Hepatitis A and Polio
12 May 2018 Chengalpattu Medical College 25
Place
 Place of residence
 Place of possible exposure
– work
– meals
– travel routes
– day-care
– leisure activities
 Maps
– identify an area at risk
12 May 2018 26Chengalpattu Medical College
Distribution of cases of cholera,
London 1854
12 May 2018 27Chengalpattu Medical College
Person
 Distribution of cases by age, sex, occupation,etc
(numerator)
– 60 female
– 50 male
 Distribution of these variables in population
(denominator)
– 600 females
– 350 males
 Attack rates
– female: 60/600
– Males: 50/350
12 May 2018 28Chengalpattu Medical College
Develop hypotheses
- Who is at risk of becoming ill?
- What is the disease?
- What is the source and the vehicle?
- What is the mode of transmission?
12 May 2018 29Chengalpattu Medical College
Compare hypotheses
with facts
Test specific hypotheses
Analytical studies
- cohort studies
- case-control studies
12 May 2018 30Chengalpattu Medical College
Verify hypothesis
Special investigations/studies
 Microbiological investigation
 Environmental investigation
 Trace back investigations (origin of foods)
 Entomological investigations
12 May 2018 31Chengalpattu Medical College
Implement control measures
1) Control the source of pathogen
2) Interrupt transmission
3) Modify host response
At first, general measures
According to findings, more
specific measures
12 May 2018 32Chengalpattu Medical College
Outbreak report
 Regular updates during the investigation
 Detailed report at the end
 communicate public health messages
 influence public health policy
 evaluate performance
 training tool
 legal proceedings
12 May 2018 33Chengalpattu Medical College
Writing the report
35
Role of the Epidemiologist
 Systematic Description
 Identification of risk factors (by descriptive or
analytical means)
 Identification of interventions
 Work with others to implement control measures
 Evaluate the impact of control measures
12 May 2018 36Chengalpattu Medical College
Steps of an outbreak investigation
1. Verification of Diagnosis
2. Confirmation of the existence of an Epidemic
3. Define a case , population at risk
4. Rapid search of all cases & obtain information
5. Describe data collected and data analysis
6. Develop hypothesis
7. Test hypothesis: analytical studies
8. Evaluation of Ecological Factors
9. Further investigation of population at risk
10. Communicate results,
including outbreak report
control measures & preventive measures
12 May 2018 37Chengalpattu Medical College
• z
12 May 2018 38Chengalpattu Medical College

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Investigation of Epidemic

  • 1. Investigation of Epidemic Dr.S.Sujatha MD.,DPH., Assistant Professor, Department of Community Medicine Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 2. 12 May 2018 2Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 3. Spot Map 12 May 2018 3Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 4. 12 May 2018 4Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 5. 12 May 2018 5Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 6. Vibrio Cholera Robert Koch Vibrio Cholera 1883 Filippo Pacini Vibrio Cholera 1854 12 May 2018 6Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 7. What is an outbreak ? Occurrence of more cases of disease than expected in a given area among a specific group of people over a particular period of time 12 May 2018 7Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 8. Why investigate outbreaks?  Stop the outbreak Find and neutralise the source (cause) Prevent additional cases  Prevent future outbreaks  Improve surveillance and outbreak detection  Improve our knowledge  Keep the public’s confidence 12 May 2018 8Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 9. Specific Demands When Investigating Outbreaks  Unexpected event  Act quickly  Rapid control  Bias caused by media reports  Legal and financial pressure  Interdisciplinary coordination  Work carried out in the field 12 May 2018 9Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 10. Steps of an Outbreak Investigation 1. Verification of Diagnosis 2. Confirmation of the existence of an Epidemic 3. Define a case , population at risk 4. Rapid search of all cases & obtain information 5. Describe data collected and data analysis 6. Develop hypothesis 7. Test hypothesis: analytical studies 8. Evaluation of Ecological Factors 9. Further investigation of population at risk 10. Communicate results, including outbreak report control measures & preventive measures 12 May 2018 10Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 11. Detection Routine surveillance Clinical / Laboratory General public Media 12 May 2018 11Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 12. Confirm outbreak and diagnosis Is this an outbreak? • More cases than expected? • Surveillance data • Surveys: hospitals, labs, physicians 12 May 2018 12Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 13. Confirm outbreak and diagnosis • Laboratory confirmation – serology – isolates, typing of isolates – toxic agents • Contact (visit) the laboratories • Meet attending physicians • Examine some cases Not always necessary to confirm all the cases but confirm a proportion throughout the outbreak 12 May 2018 13Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 14. Outbreak confirmed  Immediate control measures? Further investigation? Treatment prophylaxis exclusion / isolation public warning hygienic measures others aetiological agent mode of transmission vehicle of transmission source of contamination population at risk exposure causing illness 12 May 2018 14Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 15. Team coordinates field investigation Outbreak confirmed, further investigations warranted Form Outbreak Control Team? 12 May 2018 15Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 16. Identify & count cases notifications laboratories hospitals, GPs schools workplace, cases, media, etc
  • 17. Identify & count cases Obtain information Identifying information Demographic information Clinical details Exposures and known risk factors
  • 18. Identify & count cases Obtain information Analysis of descriptive data Describe in  time  place  person
  • 19. Descriptive epidemiology - Who are the cases? (person) - Where do they live? (place) - When did they become ill? (time) 12 May 2018 19Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 20. Epidemic Curve • Histogram • Distribution of cases by time of onset of symptoms, diagnosis or identification – time interval depends on incubation period 12 May 2018 20Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 21. Epidemic curve Describe start, end, duration peak importance atypical cases Helps to develop hypotheses incubation period etiological agent type of source type of transmission time of exposure 12 May 2018 21Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 22. Point Source Epidemic- Food poisoning 12 May 2018 Chengalpattu Medical College 22
  • 23. Continuing Common Source- Gonorrhoea outbreak by a prostitute 12 May 2018 Chengalpattu Medical College 23
  • 24. Intermittant outbreak- by a carrier of Pseudomonas aeruginosa 12 May 2018 Chengalpattu Medical College 24
  • 25. Propagated Epidemic- Hepatitis A and Polio 12 May 2018 Chengalpattu Medical College 25
  • 26. Place  Place of residence  Place of possible exposure – work – meals – travel routes – day-care – leisure activities  Maps – identify an area at risk 12 May 2018 26Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 27. Distribution of cases of cholera, London 1854 12 May 2018 27Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 28. Person  Distribution of cases by age, sex, occupation,etc (numerator) – 60 female – 50 male  Distribution of these variables in population (denominator) – 600 females – 350 males  Attack rates – female: 60/600 – Males: 50/350 12 May 2018 28Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 29. Develop hypotheses - Who is at risk of becoming ill? - What is the disease? - What is the source and the vehicle? - What is the mode of transmission? 12 May 2018 29Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 30. Compare hypotheses with facts Test specific hypotheses Analytical studies - cohort studies - case-control studies 12 May 2018 30Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 31. Verify hypothesis Special investigations/studies  Microbiological investigation  Environmental investigation  Trace back investigations (origin of foods)  Entomological investigations 12 May 2018 31Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 32. Implement control measures 1) Control the source of pathogen 2) Interrupt transmission 3) Modify host response At first, general measures According to findings, more specific measures 12 May 2018 32Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 33. Outbreak report  Regular updates during the investigation  Detailed report at the end  communicate public health messages  influence public health policy  evaluate performance  training tool  legal proceedings 12 May 2018 33Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 35. 35
  • 36. Role of the Epidemiologist  Systematic Description  Identification of risk factors (by descriptive or analytical means)  Identification of interventions  Work with others to implement control measures  Evaluate the impact of control measures 12 May 2018 36Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 37. Steps of an outbreak investigation 1. Verification of Diagnosis 2. Confirmation of the existence of an Epidemic 3. Define a case , population at risk 4. Rapid search of all cases & obtain information 5. Describe data collected and data analysis 6. Develop hypothesis 7. Test hypothesis: analytical studies 8. Evaluation of Ecological Factors 9. Further investigation of population at risk 10. Communicate results, including outbreak report control measures & preventive measures 12 May 2018 37Chengalpattu Medical College
  • 38. • z 12 May 2018 38Chengalpattu Medical College