This document provides an agenda and overview for a presentation on interest rate risk modeling and management. It discusses supervisory expectations, capabilities of the ALM5 tool, how the tool can be used for risk management versus compliance, key issues in interest rate risk architecture, and concludes with a summary review. The presentation aims to help financial institutions better understand balance sheet management and interest rate risk modeling.
Given the current regulatory environment and the resulting changes going on in the industry today, the chief risk officer has become the most important person in the financial institution.
WolfPAC Solutions Group Director Michael Cohn interviewed chief risk officers at financial institutions across the country to find out how they became a CRO, what skills and experience they bring to the role, and what is expected of them now.
Assessing a bank’s culture is not an easy task, but there clearly is an increased emphasis on culture that is part of the regulators' broader focus on “heightened standards.” Learn what it takes to have a strong credit culture. Read about these 10 credit culture factors to assess your institution's credit culture.
Given the current regulatory environment and the resulting changes going on in the industry today, the chief risk officer has become the most important person in the financial institution.
WolfPAC Solutions Group Director Michael Cohn interviewed chief risk officers at financial institutions across the country to find out how they became a CRO, what skills and experience they bring to the role, and what is expected of them now.
Assessing a bank’s culture is not an easy task, but there clearly is an increased emphasis on culture that is part of the regulators' broader focus on “heightened standards.” Learn what it takes to have a strong credit culture. Read about these 10 credit culture factors to assess your institution's credit culture.
This presentation provides complete study ofcredit risk management,how it was performed in yester years ,how it is taken care nowadays and what is the road ahead in future
Counterparty risk in a post Lehmans World -- January, 2010catelong
Results from joint Credit/FitchSolutions survey shows most buy-side firms do not hedge counterparty risk.
Those surveyed cited hedging as too expensive.
The presentation suggest using CDS as early market systems of increasing risk from counterparties.
Safeguard your lending program by learning about the 8 steps of credit risk management. Learn about nonfinancial risks, structuring the loan, and more.
This presentation provides complete study ofcredit risk management,how it was performed in yester years ,how it is taken care nowadays and what is the road ahead in future
Counterparty risk in a post Lehmans World -- January, 2010catelong
Results from joint Credit/FitchSolutions survey shows most buy-side firms do not hedge counterparty risk.
Those surveyed cited hedging as too expensive.
The presentation suggest using CDS as early market systems of increasing risk from counterparties.
Safeguard your lending program by learning about the 8 steps of credit risk management. Learn about nonfinancial risks, structuring the loan, and more.
Banks are scrambling to meet with IFRS 9 guidelines and are setting down on the path to implement various ECL estimation methodologies and models. But a topic that hasn’t been given enough attention is the need for governance of these models and the attendant model risk management framework that needs to be set up to lend credibility to the model estimates. This blog touches upon the need for validation of models and how model risk governance has become paramount in view of the new guidelines.
How has the risk manager evolved to meet the needs of the banking industry? This slide deck takes a look at how the position has evolved and what skills should you anticipate needing in the future to compose the skill profile of the next decade’s agile risk manager.
How to Manage Increasing Data Compliance Issues in Community BanksColleen Beck-Domanico
During one of RMA’s Credit Risk Management Audio Conferences, H. Walter Young, chief liquidity risk officer, M&T Bank and chief data officer, CCAR, shared strategies and best practices for community banks facing increased data compliance and integrity issues, once deemed as “big bank issues."
Heading into 2020, The Risk Management Association is focusing on eight risks. Learn about the top risks the financial services industry faces and how you can address them.
The concept of heightened expectations was no surprise to banks, even before the publication of the notice of proposed rulemaking (NPR) that appeared in the Federal Register on January 27, 2014 (Volume 79, No. 17, page 4282). The OCC had been raising these issues for years. The NPR however, did provide more detail on OCC expectations.
1. Learn about the evolving role of the chief risk officer (CRO) both before and during the current global economic crisis.
2. Develop an understanding of the complementary aspects of the CRO and chief audit executive (CAE) roles, as well as the potential conflicts to avoid.
3. Discover strategies and critical success factors for an effective CRO and CAE partnership.
This presentation provides a comprehensive plan for implementing an enterprise risk management program. It covers the costs/benefits of an ERM program, the critical knowledge, skills and abilities of a Chief Risk Officer, a risk taxonomy for insurance firms, a hypothetical organizational structure for an electric utility, a sample risk register, and other useful information.
Presentation on Corporate Governance and the changing financial landscape. Includes up to date discussion (as of April 2011) of Dodd-Frank Act elements as well as current topics and research. Links to papers via box.net.
This is the G-30 club that Volker used to chair. This is a publically available document, so hopefully SlideShare can figure that out and not remove it.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
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Interest rate risk modeling day sun_gard_ambit banking
1. 3/20/2011
SunGard Banking
IRR Modeling and Management
[Business or Company that Needs to Know More about
Balance Sheet Management] – ask me to come help
DATE
LOCATION
1
Standard Disclaimer and Ground Rules
The views, expressions and ideas of this
presentation are those of the author and do not
necessarily reflect the views and opinions of
Ambit or SunGard.
Thank you to the [COMPANY] SunGard and all
[COMPANY],
the participants and organizers of this
conference.
Ground rules:
Network: Make friends and stay in touch
Engage: Ask many questions
Apply: How do we make a difference tomorrow when
on-site? 2
Who is SunGard?
Financial Services
3
1
2. 3/20/2011
Ambit Risk Academy: Bio of Speaker
Thomas Day
SunGard Ambit – Risk & Performance
Director, Risk & Policy
(617) 780-4140 – thomas.day@sungard.com
Role at SunGard:
Tom Day is the Managing Director of Risk Solutions and Policy at SunGard Ambit, where he is a key source of thought
leadership for the company and its financial institution clients. Leveraging an extensive twenty-year career in banking, risk
management and bank supervision, Mr. Day assists clients in navigating through diverse market challenges, regulatory policy
changes and business opportunities. His overall technical knowledge across bank balance sheets, capital management and
enterprise-risk is comprehensive, and Mr. Day is well known for practical solutions to financial problems from a best-practice,
business, accounting and strategic perspective.
Background prior to SunGard:
Prior to re-joining SunGard, Mr. Day was Senior Risk and Policy Advisor within the US Treasury Department. In this role, Mr.
Day oversaw the TARP program for various chartered institutions and was a member of the interagency review committee that
recommended billions of dollars of capital investments into banks and financial institutions. He has also served in senior roles
at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, AmSouth Bancorporation, SouthTrust
Bancorp and Barnett Bank. He previously served as the SVP and head of product management and development at SunGard
BancWare, one of the world’s leading providers of risk management software.
Mr. Day has a BS in Economics from Auburn University and is a Commissioned National Bank Examiner and a Commissioned
Federal Bank and Financial Holding Company Examiner. He is on the Board of the Professional Risk Managers’ International
Association (PRMIA), the Regional Director of the D.C. Chapter of PRMIA, a frequent speaker at various industry conferences
and events, a routinely published writer, and an avid fan of American football (particularly the SEC).
4
Ambit Risk & Performance:
ALM, Capital/Stress-Testing, Liquidity, Budgeting, Planning, and FTP
Ambit Risk Academy
Advice, Tools, and SMEs for a Changing Financial Landscape
CEBS The Dodd-Frank Act Basel 3
Too Big to Fail
European Systemic Risk Board
Balance Sheet Management: Never More Critical
SIFI and G-SIFI
Systemic Risk
Incurred v. Expected Losses
v
G-20 and FSB
Stress-Testing and Capital Planning
Financial Stability Oversight Council
International Harmonization
Capital Buffers Interest Rate and Liquidity Risk Management
Incentive Compensation and Performance Measurement
http://www.centerforcapitalmarkets.com/resources/dodd-frank-wall-street-reform-and-consumer-
Interconnectedness
protection-act-of-2010-regulatory-authority/
Cross-Border Resolution
2
3. 3/20/2011
Impact of Financial Reform on Risk Management?
• Risk Management Impact?
• Full employment at:
p y
Deloitte, KPMG, PwC, BAH,
Promontory
Have regulatory experience,
will hire
• Major areas of need:
Infrastructure issues
ERM is “for keeps”
Massive need for education
Cultural challenges
Regulatory challenges
7
Major Areas of Impact: Balance Sheet Management
Agenda: Interest Rate Risk Modeling and Measurement
Supervisory and Business Expectations
ALM5 Capabilities and Limitations
Using the Tool: Risk versus Compliance
IRR Architecture and Key Issues
Summary Review and Conclusions
Sungard Account Management
3
4. 3/20/2011
Agenda: Interest Rate Risk Modeling and Measurement
Supervisory and Business Expectations
ALM5 Capabilities and Limitations
Using the Tool: Risk versus Compliance
IRR Architecture and Key Issues
Summary Review and Conclusions
Sungard Account Management
Convergence:
Balance Sheet and Enterprise-Wide Risk Management
Gap Analyses
Duration Analysis
NII Simulation
Economic Value Analysis
Dynamic Simulation Techniques
Fair Value Accounting / Credit Adjustment
Integration of
Risk
Monte-Carlo-VaR Management
Value-at-Risk (VaR)
Stress Tests
Sensitivity Analysis
Black-Scholes, Basel I RiskMetrics Basel II
Greeks
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
The ALM Risk Domain
Supervisors expect that IRRM will cover:
SHORT-TERM RISK to EARNINGS:
Risk to margin, net interest income (NII), and net income
Includes base-runoff cash-flows and new business projections
LONG-TERM RISK to VALUE:
Often called “economic value of equity” (EVE); may be other
economic equity
approaches that are acceptable
Bank supervisors (and others) often forget ALM should
also encompass:
Liquidity
FTP, profitability, performance and budget
Certain aspects of credit risk
Certain aspects of operational risk
Sungard Account Management
4
5. 3/20/2011
BS&R Expectations and Examination Requirements
With regard to interest rate risk management, BS&R
should be as interested in the risk-management process
as the model (i.e., 80/20 rule)
SunGard has considerable experience with the all
regulatory groups and many examiners are familiar with
ALM5
Consistent with SR 95-51, SR 96-13, and the January 6,
2010 Advisory, the regulators should be looking at:
Board and senior management oversight
Policies, procedures and limits
Not just ALM and IRR
Model risk management, investment portfolio and liquidity
Risk monitoring systems, controls and infrastructure
Internal and external audit, reporting and disclosure
13
Good Starting Point: Pragmatic Approach
“No matter how good the theory, the first question any good quant
should ask of a model: Under what conditions will it fail. The
second: When will it occur? You see, your organization needs to
be aware that your models are wrong. Some people use the word
mis-specified, but I don’t like that because there is no obvious
Platonic specification of the financial world.” - Emmanual Derman
Models are analytical approximations, or abstractions, of reality that
simplify complex phenomena and relationships into the essential
i lif l h d l ti hi i t th ti l
elements that drive risk.
Models are designed to solve or provide direction towards the solution of
a particular problem.
What is model risk? The risk that is derived from using assorted
variables and mathematical specifications within a model class to
produce estimates, forecasts and solutions that do not conform to real
world outcomes.
The impact of such risk is felt by an organization when decision-makers
make economic commitments based on the results of such output.
Sungard Account Management
Summary of Key Guidance
Sungard Account Management
5
6. 3/20/2011
The Evolution of IRR Supervisory Guidance
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991
• Section 305
• Focus on “Capital Charge”
• OTS adopts a unique approach
• Internal Models Approach (all other Agencies)
Earnings versus Value Debate
• NII forecast
• EVE (beauty is in the eye of the beholder)
Interagency Policy Statement (1996)
• The Board should…
• Senior management should…
• Treasury management should…
• Reporting processes should…
• Rate risk systems should…
• Internal audit should…
Sungard Account Management
The January 2010 Guidance on IRR
Corporate Governance
Regular, timely, broad range of participation
Policies and Procedures
No mention of credit spreads: value and earnings impacts
Measurement and Monitoring of IRR
Input data, cash-flow, aggregation, forecast horizon (
p , , gg g , (5-7 year issue),
y ),
dynamic and “static” simulations
Stress-Testing
Broader range of scenarios, call for deterministic scenarios
Assumptions
Sensitivity analysis, special attention around behavioral models
Risk-mitigation
Internal Controls and Validation
Sungard Account Management
Agenda: Interest Rate Risk Modeling and Measurement
Supervisory and Business Expectations
ALM5 Capabilities and Limitations
Using the Tool: Risk versus Compliance
IRR Architecture and Key Issues
Summary Review and Conclusions
Sungard Account Management
6
7. 3/20/2011
Accrual Book Maturity Model: Maturity Map
Leadership Target
Accrual Book IRR: Maturity Map What Does Maturity Mean?
• End-state target environment
Proactive Quadrant Leadership
Quadrant • Governance excellence
• Consolidated and
comprehensive on-and off-
balance sheet coverage
ctice
• Numerous stress, sensitivity,
, y,
Industry Best Prac
2011 (goal)
( l)
and strategy scenarios:
earnings and value
Early-stages Reactive Quadrant • Decision-support/
computational speed
• Monthly builds/ model
2010 “weight”
2009 • FTP method ownership
• Integrated liquidity analysis
• Resource strength (human
Firm-Level Maturity
and technical)
• Validation and control
Sungard Account Management
Strategic Balance Sheet Management
ALM Process
• Import position and market data
• Calculate risk measures (income and value)
• Generate ALM report package (min frequency
monthly)
1
Risk Committees
• Active balance sheet risk
management
Analyze Reports
• Enhance risk/return profile • EVE sensitivities
• Modify plans – tactical and (contractual cash flows)
• Standard EVE
strategic
t t i • MVPE
• DV01/KRD
• NII Simulation
4 2
• Re-pricing Gap analysis
3
What-if Simulation
• Analyze risk exposure – forecast and stress
• Measure impact of hedging strategy
• Measure sensitivity to key assumptions
• Understand behavioral dynamics
Governance: Critical Success Factor
Organizational Design is critical to effective process management
• Effective governance drives the entire balance sheet management process
• ALCO is the action-vehicle
• Treasury must have a clear mandate with well articulated policies and procedures
• Line of business buy-in and cooperation is essential
• Modeling is designed to support the governance process; anything else is
ancillary/secondary
/
• Reporting and feedback align various components
• Enforce accountability
• Create action items, e.g. hedging
• Value-added, e.g. pricing optimization, elimination of expensive options, funding optimization
All players must understand roles and responsibilities
• Education/Qualification of resources
• Creation of risk management culture
7
8. 3/20/2011
Governance Framework
• Governance
o Comprehensive oversight
o ALCO is action vehicle
• Organizational Structure and Responsibilities
o ERM sponsorship
o Treasury ownership
o LOB cooperation
• Data and Assumptions
o Ownership
o Quality Assurance/Control
• Risk Models
o Design
o Efficiency/Usability vs. Granularity
o Consistent management/analysis across all line models
• Reporting
o Comprehensive presentation of risk limits and exposures
o Actionable information
Effective Business-Level ALM: Communication
Risks and Opportunities
ompetitive Positioning
Plans and Forecasts
3rd Parties
On-going Commu
Subsidiaries On-going Communication
Retail
cation
ALM/
Strategic Focus and Co
On-going Communic
Forecasting
F ti
unication
C&I Auto Finance
A t Fi
Unit
On-going Communication
Investment Banking CRE
Leasing/Factoring
ALM is the “huddle” that brings all business activities
together into an overall picture of balance sheet strength
and weakness. Ultimately, ALM is an enterprise-risk
function
Range of Practice at Large Banks
8
9. 3/20/2011
Range of Practice at Large Banks (continued)
Range of Practice at Large Banks (continued)
Some Interest in Stochastic NII
• Produce a range of NII outcomes
based on sampling around the
tails rather than the mean.
• Interesting practice for stress-
testing; however, terribly difficult to
interpret and communicate the
usefulness given business
contingencies and other factors.
• Ambit encourages a wide-range of
approaches with the goal of
establishing a range of views as to
the impact of rate and spread
movements on the firm’s overall
structural position risk.
Sungard Account Management
9
10. 3/20/2011
Agenda: Interest Rate Risk Modeling and Measurement
Supervisory and Business Expectations
ALM5 Capabilities and Limitations
Using the Tool: Risk versus Compliance
IRR Architecture and Key Issues
Summary Review and Conclusions
Sungard Account Management
How ALM5 is Used within Financial Organizations
ALM5 is a dynamic balance sheet income simulation and valuation model
Can fully meet all business and regulatory requirements
Can scale to meet any size and complexity requirements
Embeds best-of-breed analytics, access to third-party prepayment and structure models, and
valuation technologies
Used to ensure consistency between risk, budgeting/planning, FTP, and
liquidity risk management groups. Increasingly used for macro credit
analysis.
l i
The model is used to create multiple market scenarios to ascertain
sensitivity to all sources of IRR
Repricing, Basis, Yield Curve, and Options Risk
Is used to understand sensitivities to business plan, spread, prepayment, funding and customer
behavioral risks
Drives better business decisions through precision of cash flow
calculations
Common Use Case: Defined More Clearly
Net Interest Income from this
$ Valuation from this point is the point is typical “risk” measure
typical “risk” measure from from S0 to/against S1, S2, Sn
Scenario0 (S0) against S1, S2, Sn
”X”%
Forecast error. Ties to
Forecast Growth budget and planning.
CP$
27%
New Business Roll Static balance sheet
(a.k.a., flat balance
sheet)
Baserunoff
73%
What is “VaR” at this future
point? Forward looking risk
measures. T12 or any Tn
t0 t3 t6 t9 t12
ALM5 can measure all of these risk components. The manner in which cash flows are
modeled (from both an income and valuation view) requires a wide range of
assumptions related to the market environment, data, calculations, and risk measures
(i.e., output).
10
11. 3/20/2011
Pragmatism in ALM: Necessary, but not Sufficient
ALM5 is a forward-looking, state-of-the-art risk management system
used to identify and understand risk → A/L management is not an
accounting exercise.
Future balances and behavioral assumptions are forecast with
uncertainty, but must foot to plan.
There is a tradeoff between granularity and efficiency.
Too much granularity (i.e. not enough aggregation) will hinder
efficiency and slow-down effective decision-making.
The trade-off between accuracy and risk-management pragmatism
is an art, but best practices exist as well as supervisory/regulatory
expectations. Need to reinforce each other.
Treasury and Risk Management Organization
Implementing improvements in data workflows, ownership of
assumptions, and utilization of industry leading practice risk
measures will support an organization’s ALCO Process, linking
risk groups and decisions in a practical and efficient manner.
This will also successfully address regulatory requirements for
adequacy of IRR management.
ALM5 has all necessary capabilities to support an enterprise-
wide ALCO and balance-sheet management process.
It is critical that staff – bank and supervisory – understand that
the processes that surround the balance sheet management
process are as (often more) important than the model itself.
Too many get trapped on the vendor model rather than internal
resourcing, staffing, policies and procedures
What can ALM5 do?
(and a side-note about ALM6)
All income and all valuation scenarios
Spot and future
Static and new business
Daily versus monthly
Integrated liquidity risk management
Deposit shock scenarios
Integration of Contingency Funding Plan
Haircuts to pledged and non-pledged assets
Designed to be actively used
Not a compliance tool, but a decision-making tool
Rapid compute times are a priority. Scales linearly with number of
CPUs added to analytical server farm
Be adjusted to accommodate unique business problems and
needs; designed to be an “open” system
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12. 3/20/2011
Agenda: Interest Rate Risk Modeling and Measurement
Supervisory and Business Expectations
ALM5 Capabilities and Limitations
Using the Tool: Risk versus Compliance
IRR Architecture and Key Issues
Summary Review and Conclusions
Sungard Account Management
Risk Tensions
Senior Management and ALM goals often can conflict
with each other
Sr. Mgt: Give me
more earnings.
NOW!
ALM: No problem.
ALM: No problem.
Here is less
Here is some more
earnings.
risk.
Sr. Mgt: Wait a
minute. Give me
less risk!
Sungard Account Management
The Role of ALCO: Process is Important
To manage the structure of the bank’s balance sheet and the
level of banking book market risk(s)
Ensure effective measurement and reporting systems
Include heads of all major LOBs
May also include marketing and investor relations
y g
Balance LOB optimism on business plans with practical
financial realities (i.e., a forum for debate across LOBs)
Ensure Treasury’s “discretionary” actions are in alignment with
core banking plans and activities
When using correspondent services, all of the above are even
more critical for the examiner to review
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13. 3/20/2011
Key Risks Traditional Covered by IRRM
Maturity and Repricing Mismatch
The risk that “gaps” between maturity or repricing
dates will affect earnings and value.
INTEREST-RATE RISK
Basis Risk Yield-curve Risk
Earnings-Based Measures
E i B dM
The risk that the correlations The risk to changes in
between rates upon which my the slope of the yield-
Economic-Based Measures
assets and liabilities are based curve
will move in a fashion which
is detrimental to an
organization’s earnings and
value
Options Risk Volatility?
The risk that embedded
and explicit options
present to an organization
Dimensions of Risk
Static Risk
How do changes to risk factors impact my inherent risk position?
EXAMPLE:
Economic value of equity, as traditionally applied, is a static risk measure
Gap reporting, as traditionally applied, is a static risk measure
Dynamic Risk
How do changes in risk factors – over time – impact my risk position –
over time?
Note: risk factors are moving AND my risk position is moving
This is equivalent to a holding period measure of risk where position
risk is likely changing relative the movement of the risk factors
EXAMPLE:
Net interest income simulation is a dynamic measure of risk wherein the risk
factors AND the position risk is changing over the holding period
Typical Model Data Flow
Loan Investmnt General Deposit Other
Systems Systems Ledger System Systems
Balance sheet data and Specific rate
Earnings
aggregation, repricing
gg g , p g forecasts, future
, Interest Rate Risk
information and other growth assumptions Model Simulations
inputs and assumptions and other key inputs
Beginning Month 1 Month 2 Ending
Balance Balance Balance Etc. Balance
Sheet Sheet Sheet Sheet Value
Simulations
Performance Performance Etc. Periodic
for Month 1 for Month 2 Performance
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14. 3/20/2011
Interest Rate Risk Management Concepts
1. Repricing Gap
2. Net Income Simulation and Earnings at Risk (EaR)
3. Economic Value of Equity (EVE)
4. Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis
5. Data Integrity and Assumptions
6. Limits and Controls
Sungard Account Management
Repricing Gap Analysis
Repricing Gap provides a simple, yet limited, view of re-pricing
mismatches along the yield curve.
Best Practices
Availability of re-pricing details on all balance sheet instruments
Significant granularity of re-pricing cash flow, e.g. 0-3, 3-6, 6-9, 9-12
months, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-30 years
Multiple shock scenarios in order to observe mismatch volatility
Critical Assumptions
Distribution of non-maturity deposit balances should be consistent with
FTP process; risk management and incentive comp should be aligned
Limitations
Analysis is limited to current balance sheet; ignores future business
Inadequate for capturing impact of optionality, e.g. caps, floors,
swaptions, convexity, etc.
Levered vs. Unlevered
Sungard Account Management
Example: Repricing Gap Report
Sungard Account Management
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15. 3/20/2011
Interest Rate Risk Management Concepts
1. Repricing Gap
2. Net Income Simulation and Earnings at Risk (EaR)
3. Economic Value of Equity (EVE)
4. Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis
5. Data Integrity and Assumptions
6. Limits and Controls
Sungard Account Management
Net Interest Income (NII) Simulation
NII simulation provides an estimate of near-term earnings
sensitivity to changes in market interest rates.
Intuitive and easily understood by ALCO and Exec. Management
Best Practices
Dynamic balance sheet derived from LOB forecasts of future business
LOB ownership of key model assumptions
Sensitivity analysis to key model assumptions, e.g. deposit re-pricing,
y y y p , g p p g,
prepayment speeds, credit performance
Large number of rate scenarios including shocks, ramps, twists
Analysis of below-the-margin line items in order to achieve a NI or EPS
sensitivity measure
Regular model validation and back-testing of near-term projections
Critical Assumptions
Static versus dynamic balance sheet
Flat versus forward curve
Static (constant speeds) versus dynamic prepayment functions (ADCo)
Sungard Account Management
Net Interest Income (NII) Simulation (cont’d)
Limitations
Short term in nature; common practice is 1-2 year horizon
Misses impact of options that are beyond model horizon, e.g. mortgage
prepay/extension risk, long-term FHLB optionality, TRuP options
Longer term, e.g. 5-7 years, horizons are recommended by regulators,
but become very assumption driven
Ignores changes in value of MTM instruments (and potential
earnings impact of impairment charges), e.g. trading book, MTM
hedging portfolio
Deterministic vs Probability-based Yield Curve evolution
Traditional methods rely upon single path rate scenarios
More current methods utilize stochastic yield curve models to derive
a range of earnings estimates
Provides more granular analysis of cash flow variability
Sungard Account Management
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16. 3/20/2011
Example: Net Interest Income Report
Sungard Account Management
Example: Net Interest Income Report
Sungard Account Management
Interest Rate Risk Management Concepts
1. Repricing Gap
2. Net Income Simulation and Earnings at Risk (EaR)
3. Economic Value of Equity (EVE)
4. Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis
5. Data Integrity and Assumptions
6. Limits and Controls
Sungard Account Management
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17. 3/20/2011
Economic Value of Equity (EVE) Measures
EVE analysis provides an estimate of the sensitivity of the
“economic value” of balance sheet equity to changes in market
interest rates
Captures all cash flows associated with current balance sheet
Better captures exposure to optionality risk
Inconsistent views across regulatory authorities
FDIC prefers LT income simulation over EVE
OCC somewhat ambivalent about EVE; have been known to give a
“pass” to some LFIs on EVE in lieu of long-term income simulation
FRB more interested in EVE
12 CFR § 3.10 provides that national banks can be assessed higher
minimum capital ratios based on significant exposures to declines in
the economic value of its capital.
Proposed new accounting rules may make EVE considerably more
important as it will translate directly into reported earnings volatility
Sungard Account Management
Economic Value of Equity (EVE) Measures (cont’d)
Best Practices
Stochastic interest rate model
Dynamic prepayment functionality
Two-factor yield curve models
Incorporates credit-spread volatility
Unique credit spreads for different asset classes
Limitations
Does not translate/correlate directly to an intuitive earnings-based
measure of risk
Does not translate/correlate directly to market cap sensitivity
Does not indicate optimal hedging strategies
Ignores the impact of future business
All of the above lead to difficulty in limit setting
Requires significant computing power
Not all balance sheet instruments can be valued accurately with a single
type model
Sungard Account Management
Other Valuation Based Measures
DV01
Dollar value impact of 1 bp move in an interest rate
Common risk measure in fixed-income portfolio management
Not as common in balance sheet management
Key Rate Duration
Measures the effect of a change in the yield curve that is localized at
a particular maturity point
Necessary for development of detailed hedging strategies
Mitigates risk to changes in curve shape
OAS
In contrast to the simple “yield curve spread" measurement of bond
premium over a pre-determined cash-flow model, the OAS describes
the market premium over a model including two types of volatility:
variable interest rates and variable prepayment rates.
CONFIDENTIAL – FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY Sungard Account Management
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18. 3/20/2011
Example Reports: EVE and NII Scenario Dashboard
Sungard Account Management
Example Reports: EVE
Sungard Account Management
Interest Rate Risk Management Concepts
1. Repricing Gap
2. Net Income Simulation and Earnings at Risk (EaR)
3. Economic Value of Equity (EVE)
4. Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis
5. Data Integrity and Assumptions
6. Limits and Controls
Sungard Account Management
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19. 3/20/2011
Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis
In addition to establishing and monitoring standard risk limits for
the impact of changes in market interest rates, sensitivity analysis
to key model assumptions must be performed periodically, e.g.
interest rate sensitivity and balance decay functions on non-
maturity deposits
Sensitivity analysis tests a model’s parameters without relating those
changes to an underlying event or real world outcome
Additional business scenarios, e.g. rapidly growing balance sheet,
de-levering balance sheet, economic recession, corporate credit
event, need to be periodically modeled
Scenario analysis uses the model to predict a possible future
outcome given an event or series of events
Other Matters
The use of IRR models for balance sheet management, e.g.
corporate forecasting, strategic analysis, M&A support, adds
considerably to a firm’s credibility with regulatory authorities.
If a model is used only for IRR management, the question arises as
to its credibility/veracity.
On January 6, 2010, the financial regulators issued an advisory to
remind institutions of supervisory expectations regarding sound
practices for managing interest rate risk (IRR).
“In the current environment of historically low short-term interest
rates, it is important for institutions to have robust processes for
measuring and, where necessary, mitigating their exposure to
potential increases in interest rates.”
Regulators fear banks going out the curve (and funding short) in the
quest for yield. Post credit-crisis, regulators do not want banks
immediately increasing risk along another dimension.
Sungard Account Management
Interest Rate Risk Management Concepts
1. Repricing Gap
2. Net Income Simulation and Earnings at Risk (EaR)
3. Economic Value of Equity (EVE)
4. Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis
5. Data Integrity and Assumptions
6. Limits and Controls
Sungard Account Management
19
20. 3/20/2011
Data Issue Overview: The High-Altitude View
There has been a significant increase in the use of technology
to increase efficiencies over the last two decades (you never
“arrive”, but are always in the process of “arriving”)
Banks have gotten bigger, risk-taking got more “scientific” (models)
Funding liquidity seemed endless (pre-crisis)
Products became more complex
Competition, globally, became more intense
Economies-of-scale seemed to “rule” and
“diseconomies” of scale were “inconceivable” in banking
Our experience indicates:
Multiple source systems
Legacy data problems
Inability to pull current position balance sheets together
Inability to evaluate, plan and budget over such a large book
Governance by volume and performance, not by risk
Key Assumptions: Income Simulation
1. Starting Balance Sheet
a) Data preparation and maintenance is often > 60% of the challenge
b) Some institutions are unable to compile complete starting position in a
timely basis (possible red flag)
2. Selection of rate scenarios and driver rates
a) +100, +200, +300, non-parallel, ramps, forward curve, etc
b) How many driver rates? How to correlate? Manage?
3. New business (e.g., roll-rates)
a) How will new business “roll” onto books? When? With what
characteristics? How to source these assumptions? Maintain?
4. Repricing attributes
a) Important for models not at instrument level
5. Core deposit behavior – earnings and valuation
6. Prepayment assumptions
Key Assumptions: EVE
Discount rates utilized
Spreads used, if any
Maybe 1) OAS, 2) credit, and/or 3) other
Core deposit average lives and valuation method(s)
Are the same base runoff cash flows used for valuation and for
income simulation?
How are loans of similar type aggregated and evaluated?
How are embedded options valued?
How do methods differ across the chart-of-account(s)?
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21. 3/20/2011
Data Integrity and Assumptions
Documentary support for derived assumptions used in the model:
Core deposit assumptions – rate betas and lags (for NII) and decay
rates/durations (for EVE)
Deposit behaviors for risk management should be similar/identical as
those for FTP
LOB sponsorship/ownership of pro forma inputs/estimates
Synchronization of pro forma prepayment speeds with historical
experience
Data limitations do exist and large, complex institutions will have
to strike a balance between a quality process and overload.
Sensitivity analysis should be used to test exposures resulting from poor data
quality, data aggregation as well as imperfect model assumptions, e.g. core
deposit rate betas.
Sungard Account Management
Data Integrity and Assumptions
"Best in Class" ALM process
Frequency: Complete monthly reporting of all risk limits; constant analysis of
model assumptions, data quality and accuracy of output
Data aggregation: As little as possible w/o sacrificing compute efficiency
For static scenario models, data granularity can be maximized while data
aggregation (pooling) can be minimized.
For stochastic models, data aggregation needs to be maximized in order to get
compute results in a timely manner. Granularity, and hence accuracy, will be
p y y, y,
sacrificed to some extent. Period (quarterly or annual) analysis using more
granular inputs can be used to ballpark errors associated with efficiency in regular
process.
Regular LOB involvement in validation of model assumptions and
results
Modeling effort that demonstrably drives corporate balance sheet
management process
Sungard Account Management
Interest Rate Risk Management Concepts
1. Repricing Gap
2. Net Income Simulation and Earnings at Risk (EaR)
3. Economic Value of Equity (EVE)
4. Scenario/Sensitivity Analysis
5. Data Integrity and Assumptions
6. Limits and Controls
Sungard Account Management
21
22. 3/20/2011
Policies, Procedures and Limits
Policy comprehensiveness is critical
Is it Board approved annually?
Overall policy objectives and IRRM philosophy are well articulated
Outlines major drivers of IRR and liquidity risk for the entity(ies)
Details responsibilities and authorities
Board
ALCO(s)( )
Management processes and procedures
Establishes risk appetite (how?) and tolerance
NII and EVE and exposure of each to major IRR sources (m,y,o,b)
Re-pricing GAP misses many risk factors and is not largely used
Exceptions to policy (process for escalation and remediation)
Relationship to capital, dividend, off-balance sheet, derivatives, investment
and accounting policies
Has it been “benchmarked” against peer?
Sungard Account Management
Limit Structures
Limits need to be developed based on a risk appetite
analysis, or similar “threshold” exercise
Most large banks place limits to several baseline scenarios
for dynamic income simulation NII (over 12 and 24 month
horizons) and static Economic-Value of Equity (
) q y (EVE) )
analyses
Not uncommon to have ramps, stair-steps or shock-based NII limits
EVE is by nature a shock-based (instantaneous) measure
January 2010 Interagency “advisory” made some suggested
changes to the 1996 statement, but is only an advisory
Sungard Account Management
Difference between limits and robust “analysis”
Measuring risk against policy limits is a 1st-order expectation;
numerous additional scenarios need to be performed
Net interest income
Exposure to yield curve, basis and options (volatility) risk
Exposure to spread risks
Economic value of equity
Exposure to credit spread (should be a MVPE baseline, not EVE)
Not uncommon for a separate model to be run for EVE analysis
Quant, R&D and market-data sourcing (prices and spreads) is a
critical element (can have organizational design impacts)
Migration over time to a full-blown OAS method, but most banks are
not at this stage yet
Sungard Account Management
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23. 3/20/2011
Policies, Procedures and Limits
Policy comprehensiveness is critical
Is it Board approved annually?
Overall policy objectives and IRRM philosophy are well articulated
Outlines major drivers of IRR and liquidity risk for the entity(ies)
Details responsibilities and authorities
Board
ALCO(s)( )
Management processes and procedures
Establishes risk appetite (how?) and tolerance
NII and EVE and exposure of each to major IRR sources (m,y,o,b)
Re-pricing GAP misses many risk factors and is not largely used
Exceptions to policy (process for escalation and remediation)
Relationship to capital, dividend, off-balance sheet, derivatives, investment
and accounting policies
Has it been “benchmarked” against peer?
Sungard Account Management
Limit Structures
Limits need to be developed based on a risk appetite
analysis, or similar “threshold” exercise
Most large banks place limits to several baseline scenarios
for dynamic income simulation NII (over 12 and 24 month
horizons) and static Economic-Value of Equity (
) q y (EVE) )
analyses
Not uncommon to have ramps, stair-steps or shock-based NII limits
EVE is by nature a shock-based measure
January 2010 Interagency “advisory” made some suggested
changes to the 1996 statement, but is only an advisory
Sungard Account Management
Internal Controls and Model Validation
There is an expectation that Internal or Corporate Audit
Staff play a role in the IRR model review process
In a decentralized model, various check-points and procedures will
need to be established and flow-through to the annual corporate
audit report(ing)
The IRR element plays a significant role in the CAMELS rating
process of the banks, and the RFI/C rating for the BHC/FHC.
Model Validation
Various policy statements: OCC 2000-16 and FHFA recent policies
are valuable reference points
Model validations needs to be conducted by quant personnel,
independent from modeling crew. The validation needs to be
coordinated with audit. Needs to be rigorous. Elements of the Jan
2010 statement need to be incorporated.
Sungard Account Management
23
24. 3/20/2011
Agenda: Interest Rate Risk Modeling and Measurement
Supervisory and Business Expectations
ALM5 Capabilities and Limitations
Using the Tool: Risk versus Compliance
IRR Architecture and Key Issues
Summary Review and Conclusions
Sungard Account Management
Model Architecture: Account Level Detail
1. Ideally, you want to limit the number of accounts you
model at the group or pool level and maximize the
number of accounts you model at the transaction
level.
2. Some accounts you may simply have to model at the
group or pool level using weighted average attributes
Sungard Account Management
Model Architecture
• These constitute the “end-nodes” of
your chart-of-account (COA) structure
• Varies from vendor to vendor
• Such structure can allow for dynamic
dimensions
e.g., COA “end-nodes”
Business Banking:London:CRE:Fixed:
Business Banking:London:CRE:Libor3M:
Business Banking:Hong Kong:C&I:Libor3M
Business Banking:New York:Mtg:Treasury12M:
24
25. 3/20/2011
Model Architecture
Model Architecture (continued)
Key Issues: Inputs
Identify model vendor and version number of data transformation engine; note
specific modules or add-ons
Identify and assess ETL (extract, transform, and load) process, e.g. BDI, Access,
Excel, SQL, etc.
Determine data sources, data owners, availability and control environment
Determine reconciliation process for product balances
Determine extent of data transformation and pooling logic
Select sample of records for testing (
p g (will follow through computational engine)
g p g )
Review and test pooling logic
Review data filling routines
Review behavioral overrides in data
Review data record (from source system) granularity (accuracy vs. efficiency)
Review pool record (feed to computational engine) granularity (accuracy vs.
efficiency)
Review USD and FX market spot rate and curve inputs (and consistency across
models)
Review USD and FX internal spot rate and curve inputs (and consistency across
models)
25
26. 3/20/2011
Key Issues: Assumptions and Compute Engine
Identify and review key behavioral assumptions, e.g. prepayments and deposit
decay rates; determine source, ownership, review and revision procedures
Review and test model rate generation processes, e.g. stochastic and forward curves
Review and document chart of accounts and key behavioral settings
Select sample of accounts for testing [sampling methodology TBD]
Verify cash flows for sample accounts, including principal and II/IE
Review new business chart of accounts, key behavioral settings
Determine assumption sources and validation methodologies for new business
Determine market value methodologies, e.g. static or stochastic
Review setup and calibration of stochastic rate model used for EAR or EVE
calculations
Review EVE discounting (flat or with spread?). Basis for assumptions. Support.
Review key rate and DV01 methodologies
Outputs: Reporting
Review ALCO policy to identify risk limits
Review existing interest rate risk reports
Review GAP report construction, including balance sheet
line-item inclusion/exclusion criteria
Review NIM forecast
Review analysis and measurement of mismatch basis yield
mismatch, basis,
curve, and options risk
Review funding/hedging recommendations
Review economic forecast and recommending balance
sheet strategies
Determine if IRR reporting is appropriate given size and
complexity of organization’s balance sheet
Sungard Account Management
Governance: Internal Routine and Control
Review model operating procedures
Review back-testing of NIM and synchronization with budget or FP&A forecast
Review analytical reports/studies used to verify model results
Review stress testing
Review “what-if” scenarios
Review business line analysis of model results
Review disclosure of key behavioral assumptions, e.g. prepayments and deposit
decay rates
Review model documentation for disclosures around model use and limitations
Review model documentation for discussions of model theory
Review change control procedures
Review recent audit findings for model/modeling process
Review model validation policy
Review previous model validation findings
Determine testing and approval process prior to model deployment
Sungard Account Management
26
27. 3/20/2011
Agenda: Interest Rate Risk Modeling and Measurement
Supervisory and Business Expectations
ALM5 Capabilities and Limitations
Using the Tool: Risk versus Compliance
IRR Architecture and Key Issues
Summary Review and Conclusions
Sungard Account Management
Summary
Governance as much as the model
Policies and Limits
Committees and active senior management and board oversight
Routine validations and accountability mechanisms in place
Break down silos. Use the model to drive business, not
compliance
Robust stress-testing and sensitivity analysis
g y y
Non-parallel curve shifts critical in today’s environment
Duration and convexities are critical in today’s environment
Validation, Assumption management and Version control
Resources – does the bank have sufficient internal
resources?
Income and value measures
Create a network of experts you can lean on when needed
Sungard Account Management
Q&A?
Any questions or comment?
Sungard Account Management
27