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Informed decision-making for CSA: methodologies and data requirements
The document outlines the methodologies and data requirements for implementing Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) in Central Asia, focusing on enhancing productivity, adapting to climate change, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It emphasizes the importance of building an evidence base, developing institutional frameworks, and analyzing climate impacts to prioritize objectives based on local agricultural contexts. The need for stakeholder involvement and capacity building is highlighted as essential for the successful adoption of CSA practices.
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Informed decision-making for CSA: methodologies and data requirements
- 1. Informed decision makingfor CSA: methodologies and data requirements “Central Asia Climate Smart Agriculture Workshop” Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan – 12-14 July 2016 Aslihan Arslan Natural Resource Economist Agricultural Development Economics Division (ESA) Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN
- 2. 1. SUSTAINABLY INCREASING PRODUCTIVITY ANDINCOME 2. ADAPTING AND BUILDING RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE 3. REDUCING AND/OR REMOVING GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSIONS WHERE POSSIBLE How to operationalize the CSA pillars at country level?
- 3. Too Many Objectives? 3 •Prioritizing the objectives of CSA depends on the role of agriculture in economy and society. • In low income, highly agriculture-dependent economies, where CC impacts are estimated to be significant and negative, CSA approach to agricultural growth – prioritizes food security – incorporating necessary adaptation, and – capturing potential mitigation co-benefits • Evidence base essential for prioritization
- 4. From knowledge toaction at country level 5 1.Building an evidence base 2.Developing/enhancing capacity 3.Building enabling institutional and policy frameworks 4.Facilitating policy coordination 5.Guiding investments & access to finance The building blocks of the EPIC-CSA approach
- 5. Building an evidencebase 1. Assessing the situation – What are actual and predicted CC impacts at sub-national levels? – Which areas/farming systems and households have highest exposure/sensitivity? – Which agricultural practices/livelihood strategies best respond to improve productivity and resilience? – What are the mitigation potentials? 1. Understand the enabling environment — What are barriers to adoption?
- 6. Analysis of exposureand sensitivity to climate risk in recent years • Rainfall (1983-2015): Dekadal (10 days) rainfall data from Africa Rainfall Climatology v2 (ARC2) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA-CPC) • Temperature (1989-2013): Dekadal avg, min & max temperatures of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) • Soil: Soil nutrient availability and soil pH levels from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) Data Sources 7
- 7. Zambia: Rainfall variabilityby agro- ecological region (AER)
- 8. Zambia: change inonset of the rainy season 1983-2012
- 9. Data sources: • Largescale nationally representative agricultural household data (5,000-10,000 households) • Institutional data at sub-national levels • Combined with the above geo-referenced data …to assess country priorities, e.g.: • Conservation agriculture & agro-forestry • Soil & water conservation • Livelihood diversification: crops, livestock, income • Safety nets and risk management • The role of agriculture as a driver of deforestation Analysis of impacts of potential CSA interventions and barriers to adoption
- 10. The effects onproductivity and its resilience across agricultural practices Higher Yields Lower/Same Yields Reduced probability of yield loss Average climatic conditions Legume intercrop Inorganic fertilizer Improved seed Crop rotation Inorganic fertilizer Improved seed Timely fertilizer access Delayed onset of rainfall Crop Rotation Improved seed Timely fertilizer access Inorganic fertilizer Legume intercrop Increased seasonal temperature Legume intercrop Timely fertilizer access Improved seed Inorganic fertilizer Legume intercrop Timely fertilizer
- 11. The effects ofclimate shocks on diversification… and its impacts for income & resilience
- 12. Analysis of mitigation potentials •Crops: Spatial models of soil carbon under various practices/systems • Livestock: Identify options to decrease emissions • Forestry: Identify main drivers of deforestation & options to decrease it
- 13. Barriers Enablers Minimum soil disturbance Lowincome Extension information Collective action Rainfall variability Legume intercropping Low income Distance to district center Extension information Land Tenure Collective action Rainfall variability Crop Rotation Low income Extension information Agro-Forestry Distance to district center Labor cost Low income Tenure security Collective action Drought proneness Improved seed Uninsured risk Distance to district center Extension information Inorganic fertilizer Uninsured risk Lack of land tenure Distance to district center Extension information Barriers to/enablers of Adoption: Zambia & Malawi
- 14. Cost-Benefit Analysis • Needto analyze costs and benefits of various options at various scales • Detailed cost data is scarce but necessary • Autonomous adoption can only be expected if benefits>costs • Interventions can be better targeted to address the specific costs of adoption that may prevent adoption
- 15. • Support toMin of Agriculture representatives to attend UNFCCC negotiations • Support to MSc and PhD students to work on CSA • Develop & deliver country-specific CSA training material for agricultural extension frontline staff • Facilitate continuous learning by webinars, online learning courses and exchange programmes Capacity development
- 16. • CSA isan integrated approach to address food security, adaptation and mitigation • Data & analysis needs are significant for proper design & targeting • …but data & tools are increasingly available to assess three pillars for informed decision making • Stakeholder involvement and capacity development are key for successful implementation of CSA approach Summing up 17
- 17. Thank you! For moreinformation, please visit: www.fao.org/climatechange http://www.fao.org/climatechange/epic or write to: aslihan.arslan@fao.org
Editor's Notes
- #6 Highlights of the Economics and Policy Innovations for CSA (EPIC) Programme In country activities for Malawi, Viet Nam, and Zambia addressing all 5 elements.
- #8 ARC2 data are based on the latest estimation techniques on a daily basis and have a spatial resolution of 0.1 degrees (~10km). Soil characteristics are obtained from the Harmonized World Soil database, which has a resolution of 30 arc-seconds and combines existing regional and national updates of soil information worldwide Chirps - mention
- #10 Based on NOAA Africa rainfall climatology, temperature european medium range weather forecast.
- #14 Crop: based on cool farm tool Livestock: GLEAM Forestry:
- #15 Need to expand these to include more recent analysis and also results from risk analysis
- #18 Here we are looking at a more comprehensive picture : You need to address a complicated problem, that of food security !! This is the enabling environment diamond From the HLPE Report: ••Five sets of recommendations for national governments and international organizations oPursue synergies in food security and climate change actions oIncrease resilience of food systems to climate change oDevelop low-emissions agricultural strategies that contribute to food security oCollect information locally and share knowledge globally oFacilitate participation of all stakeholders in decision making and implementation In this slide we try to divide them into short-term actions and longer term ones, as well as distinguishing between international efforts and country-level interventions.