Challenges & Opportunities in Sharing Early Warning Information and ICPAC’s Support to Specific Sector Applications

1. Challenges & Opportunities in Sharing Early
Warning Information and ICPAC’s Support to
Specific Sector Applications
Presented at the Pre-CCDA-5 Workshop;
27 October 2015; Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe
By Jasper Batureine Mwesigwa; Agrometeorologist

2. The ICPAC GHACOF Process

3. The ICPAC GHACOF Process
Under the frameworks of WMO & IGAD;
Brings together Global Producing Centres (GPCs),
National Meteorological & Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of MSs,
Climate Scientists from Universities, etc, &
Users from all climate-sensitive sectors;
Forms the biggest climate forum in the Greater Horn of Africa
The 11 ICPAC Member States:
Djibouti, Burundi, Eritrea, Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda, Sudan, Tanzania, Rwanda, Somalia,
South Sudan

4. GHACOF Products
Consensus Seasonal Climate Outlook for the GHA region: 3 per year;
Further downscaled by NMHSs to national & sub national levels;
Interpreted by different sectors at ICPAC – deriving implications &
recommendations on how best to use the forecast;
Updated monthly (and ten-daily) till end of season;
Current Sectors:
Agriculture & Livestock, Water, DRR/M, Media, Health, Gender

5. Challenges of sharing EWI
Coarse spatial resolution forecasts;
Perceived low reliability in relation to the needs of individual user
(farmer) categories:
When will it rain? Where will it rain? For how long will it rain?
How much? When will it not rain? Etc;
Bad timing of disseminating forecasts;
Failure of dissemination channels to reach (all) grassroots farmers,
Forecasts not well interpreted to forms readily understood by users;
Climate change messing up predictability;

6. Opportunities
Increasing desire for tailored climate services by farming households;
Increasing reliability of seasonal forecasts from Met Agencies;
More Modern Agricultural Technologies available by Agric researchers;
IT and other modern Communication Technology (mobile phone,
Radio, Internet, Social Media, etc) made available;
Commitment by Governments (National development plans, visions);
Support from Development Partners (e.g.:
CCAFS/INAPFS project to improve the skill of ICPAC’s seasonal forecasts;
USAID/PREPARED project rescuing & digitizing historical data);

7. GHACOF 41 Forecast
(Probabilistic)
Downscaled GHACOF 41
Forecast (Amounts/mm)
Downscaled GHACOF 41 Forecast
(Probabilistic Suitability)

8. Further Downscaling & Interpretation at
National & Sector Levels for Agriculture

9. How farmers use GHACOF Products
Farmers prepare their land on time;
Wait for rains to start before planting;
When the rains start, they plant on time because fields are ready;
Only plant seeds/varieties recommended by scientists;
Follow all recommended practices by extension officers;
All operations (planting, thinning, weeding and top dressing) are
done properly and timely;
Participating farmers registered crop yield increment of over 150%;
Other farmers who did not get CIS advice or those who got but
refused to follow it, ended up with miserable gardens;

10. Results of GHACOF Products on the Farm

11. Results of GHACOF Products on the Farm

12. Revelations from Women Participants during MTE
1. “Ever since I got married in this area (Reru Community) 35 years ago, this is the first
time in one season that we are harvesting this huge amount of food (maize and
sorghum). I am sure other women will be very interested to learn how I did this”.
2. “Where we previously got one bag of sorghum, now we get up to five from the same
acreage. Many of us have sorghum from the last harvest up to this time (May), a time
that we would already be buying it to survive. So we are not hungry and this has given us
courage to work harder”.
2. “There is love at home because we have sufficient food. Our men used to migrate to
Kisumu and other towns whenever there was famine, leaving us to suffer with the
children. They are now settled at home, thanks to the project; because we have food and
now they even support us in the farms”.

13. Contribution of the Agriculture & Food
Security Sector at ICPAC to IGAD’s Integrated
Regional Early Warning System (IREWS)
Undergoing Development

14. The key tasks for the Agriculture Dept.
Translating ICPAC forecasts into meaningful tailor-made products for Application in
Agriculture and Food Security Sectors;
Creating awareness on the importance of CI & EW products in national
and regional agriculture & food security sectors
Promoting usage of CI for increased food production and food security
Enhancing preparedness capacity of agriculture practitioners, planners &
decision makers to appropriately respond to the expected seasonal climate
opportunities & threats to agriculture
To produce regular briefs on impacts of observed climate conditions on agriculture and
food security

15. Prototype
Tool Selection (Currently customising many tools)
Analogue years (estimation of SOS, Spatial & Temporal Seasonal Distribution)
FACT-FIT (estimation of seasonal forecasts in terms of rainfall amounts, etc);
Participatory Scenario Planning & Consensus Building during GHACOF;
GeoCLIM (analysis of climatology to map crop suitability, identify areas of interest &
hotspots, estimate SPIs, etc based on the data from analogue year);
DSSAT (to perform crop suitability analysis – at regional scale, this is very demanding);
WRSI (for monitoring of crop phenology during seasonal progression & predicting crop
performance);
SPIRITS, EMMA, ILWIS – for agricultural monitoring, through analysis of NDVI &
RFE within specific Regions of Interest (e.g. crop masks).

16. Key EW indicators to be monitored
Start of Season Anomaly (i.e. Onsets);
End of Season Anomaly (i.e. Cessation);
Rainfall Performance & Anomaly and occurrence of severe impacts e.g.
dry spells: length/duration, frequency, scale (– agricultural drought); &
floods, land/mud slides, stormy weather;
Vegetation Performance (NDVI ) Anomaly;
Soil Moisture Anomaly (The Current N. Ethiopia Case – similar to 1984);
Outbreaks (Incidence & Severity) of major crop pests and diseases;
Extreme surface temperature (too hot or too cold)

17. EW Triggers: When to raise the red flag?
Start of Season Late by ≥ 3 dekads;
Cessation of Season Early by ≥ 3 dekads;
≥ 3 consecutive dry dekads in specific cropping locations during peak
of season (or during critical crop stages);
Significant negative NDVI (≥-0.20) anomaly continuing for ≥ 3 dekads;
WSRI ≤ 60% on a significantly large area; SWI of ≤ 50%
A prediction (from GHACOF) of an extreme climatic event (such as an
El Nino or a drought), SPI of ≤ -1.0 (drought) or ≥ +1.5 (flood);
Outbreaks of Contagious livestock diseases e.g. Rift Valley Fever

18. Partnership/coordination arrangement
CGIAR (CCAFS & CIMMYT, CIAT, ICRISAT – through ongoing
INAPFS Project);
FEWSNET, WFP, FAO (RAU, Giews, VAM), etc through FSNWG;
Other Agencies (NGOs – National & International);
Ministries of Agriculture of Member States
National Agricultural Research Institutions
Agrometeorological Departments of NMHSs

19. Expected products
Monthly Agriculture Monitoring bulletin;
Improved GHACOF statement (include: performance of previous
season & Implications & Recommendations for current seasonal
forecast);
Seasonal products from the Integrated Food Production and Food
Security Forecasting System (INAPFS project);
Monthly Regional Food and Nutrition Security Situation Report
(FSNWG);
Agrometeorology Bulletin (planned for next year);

20. Asante Sana
www.icpac.net
director@icpac.net
jbmwesigwa@icpac.net