An economic update of the Wichita economy using the WSU current and leading economic index. www.index.CEDBR.org

1. Wichita Update
Retail and Index
Jeremy Hill
November 2013

2. US headlines
• U.S. auto sales continues to improve
• U.S. real GDP grew by 2.8%
• U.S. Employment grew by 204,000 in
Oct, which was above expectation
• U.S. Small Firms shaken by shutdown
Forecasts
GDP
Consumer Spending
Consumer Price Index
Savings Rate
Source: Moody's 11-22-13
2013
1.6%
4.4%
1.5%
4.5%
2014
3.1%
5.8%
1.8%
4.8%

3. Components: Current
• Wichita Non-Farm Employment
– Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES)
• Wichita Unemployment rate
– Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS) – seasonally adjusted by CEDBR
• Manufacturing Weekly Hours worked
– Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES) – seasonally adjusted by CEDBR
• Manufacturing Earnings
– Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES)– seasonally adjusted by CEDBR

4. Components: Leading
• Aircraft production index
– Board of Governors - Federal Reserve System
• Kansas Leading index
– Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
• National production index
– Board of Governors - Federal Reserve System
• International leading index
– Organizations for Economic Co-Operation and
Development

6. WSU Current Conditions Index
WSU Wichita Current Conditions Index
Current Conditions Index
Index Components - Wichita MSA
Total Non-farm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Hours of Production Employees*
Earnings of Production Employees*
Aug-13
92.9
287,200
6.4%
44.9
$885.20
Monthly
Annual
Jul-13
% Change % Change
92.4
0.5%
1.0%
286,200
6.5%
43.8
$869.11
0.3%
-0.1%
2.5%
1.9%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, data compiled by CEDBR and seasonally adjusted
*Manufacturing Weekly Average
0.6%
-0.2%
4.2%
3.3%

7. Summary - WSU Current
Conditions
• The Wichita economy has improved slightly,
but not solid consistent growth.
• Manufacturing appears to be poised for a
recover, but employment is likely delayed for
several more months.
• Although unemployment has come down
slightly, the labor market has a long ways to go
for recovery.

8. WSU Leading Conditions Index
WSU Wichita Leading Conditions Index
Leading Conditions Index
Predicted change*
Index Components
Aircraft Production Index
Kansas Leading Index
National Industrial Production Index
International Leading Index
Aug-13
93.0
0.18
98.8
1.4
99.5
100.6
Monthly
Annual
Jul-13
% Change % Change
92.5
0.6%
1.1%
0.13
97.2
1.0
99.1
100.5
1.6%
40.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
55.6%
2.8%
0.9%
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia,
Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), data compiled by CEDBR
*Predicted change in the level of economic activity over the next six months from the current level of
economic activity.

10. Summary - WSU Leading
Conditions
• Aircraft production should continue to
improve.
• International outlook is improving, and will
start to spill over to the US.

11. Online Tool
• Index.cedbr.org

12. Wichita Economy
Questions

13. Retailers stockpile goods
before the Holidays

14. Holiday Spending
• More consumers shopping mobile and local
• Two-thirds plan to shop small business or
independent retailer
• Top retail location are discount stores
• Moderate gains this holiday (4-4.5% increase)
• Number of expected gifts have leveled off
Source: Deloitte

16. Total Personal Income YR/YR
Source: BEA

17. Wichita – Personal Income
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
Personal income
Nonfarm

18. 12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
Wages and salaries
Supplements to wages and salaries

19. 25.0%
15.0%
5.0%
-5.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-15.0%
-25.0%
Wages and salaries
Supplements to wages and salaries
Proprietors' income

20. -2.00%
1995:4
1996:3
1997:2
1998:1
1998:4
1999:3
2000:2
2001:1
2001:4
2002:3
2003:2
2004:1
2004:4
2005:3
2006:2
2007:1
2007:4
2008:3
2009:2
2010:1
2010:4
2011:3
2012:2
2013:1
2013:4
2014:3
Nominal Taxable Retail Sales
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
-4.00%
-6.00%
Wichita
Source: CEDBR
Kansas
Wichita Forecasted

21. Summary
• Retail sales will likely grow in the forth quarter
• Sustained retail sales is not likely without
continued employment growth

22. Kansas 2013 REVIEWREVIEW
2014 FORECAST
Jeremy Hill
November 2013

23. CEDBR
DATA
WSU's Center for Economic
Development and Business Research
is a responsive, reliable source of
local, state and national demographic
and economic data.
KANSAS INFORMATION DATABASE
The Kansas Information Database
(KID) is a set of data containing
economically pertinent news articles
and information on the state of
Kansas and the Midwest region.
MARKET RESEARCH
CEDBR provides customized market
research to government, businesses
and nonprofit agencies.
Research.CEDBR.org
FORECASTS
CEDBR provides employment and
retail sales forecasts, as well as
population projections.
Presentations.CEDBR.org
CEDBR E-CONNECTION
CEDBR publishes e-connection, a
monthly e-mail newsletter, providing
ongoing reports on business and the
economy, as well as timely delivery of
special reports.
Newsletter.CEDBR.org