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Presentation of Sec. Arsenio Balisacan at the 2015 FOCAP Prospects for the Philippines Forum

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Presentation of Sec. Arsenio Balisacan at the 2015 FOCAP Prospects for the Philippines Forum

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THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY Prospects and Outlook for 2015-2016 ARSENIO M. BALISACAN Socioeconomic Planning Secretary and Director-General NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY FOCAP Flagship & Year- Opening Annual Forum 11 February 2015
2015 2016 - 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 GDP in 2000 billion Php, 1960-2016 Target Real GDP growth 6.3% (2010-2014) 6.1% (2014) 7.2% (2013) 6.8% (2012) Source: PSA Structural break of potential real GDP at around 2009 2 The Philippine economy is on a high growth trajectory at the beginning of the current decade.
0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2014 Supply side Agriculture Industry Services -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Demand side Consumption Government Investment Net exports 2.8% 4.5% 6.3% 2.8% 4.5% 6.3% Source: NEDA Ave. growth 3 Structural changes in the economy are taking place.
Selected Indicators Actual 2013 Actual 2014 Annual Projections 2015 2016 Real GDP Growth (%) 7.2 6.1 7.0-8.0 7.0-8.0 Unemployment rate (in %) 7.2* 6.8 (FY)* 6.7 6.6 Underemployment rate (% of employed) 19.0* 18.4 (FY)* 18.0 17.0 Poverty Incidence (% of population) 24.9 (1st Sem 2013) 22.5 19.0 Our Development Targets *Estimates exclude Region 8; computation for FY'14 employment generation excludes Region 8 in Jan 2014 round of the LFS
The vibrant view on the Philippine economy is also shared by the private sector. Source: Various sources, as of 28 January 2015 Consensus Forecast (in %) 2015 2016 2017 ADB 6.4 - - Barclays 6.5 - - Citi 6.3 - - Fitch rating 6.2 6.0 - Goldman Sachs - - - HSBC 5.6 6.1 - IMF 6.6 6.4 - Metrobank Research - - - Moody’s 6.5 - - Nomura 6.6 - - Standard and Poor’s 6.3 6.0 5.6 Standard Chartered Bank 7.0 - - UNESCAP 6.0 - - WB 6.5 6.5 - Median 6.5 6.1 5.6 Mean 6.4 6.2 5.6
• Continue the “rebalancing” process in order to reduce vulnerability to regional/global shocks and generate more and higher-quality jobs • Continue addressing key infrastructure constraints • Keep strong focus on improving the provision of services for health, education, and disaster-risk reduction • Pass vital legislation that will help the economy to reach its highest potential 6 How do we keep the momentum in 2015-2016?
The implementation of key infrastructure projects is vital in boosting growth this year. NEDA Board-approved Projects under the Aquino Administration (as of end-Jan 2015) Source: NEDA Projects by Status No. of Projects Amount (PhP billion) Completed Projects 7 17.6 Ongoing/ Under Implementation 58 555.4 For Implementation 28 505.9 Total 93 1,079 (USD24.31 B) Source of Financing Number of Projects Total Amount (PhP billion) PPP Ongoing 9 193.3 For implementation 14 435.0 ODA Completed 7 17.6 Ongoing 37 318.0 For implementation 9 47.0 Local Financing Ongoing 12 44.1 For implementation 5 23.9 Status of Projects according to Funding Source
Priority legislative measures to sustain growth and make it more inclusive. • Bangsamoro Basic Law • Competition Law • Fiscal Incentives Rationalization • Rationalization of Mining Revenues • Removing investment restrictions in specific laws cited in the Foreign Investment Negative List (FINL) • Amendment to BOT Law • Amendment to BSP Charter • Customs and Tariff Modernization Act (CMTA) • Water Sector Reform Act • Amendment to Cabotage Law • National Land Use Act • Land Administration Reform Act • Acquisition of Right-of-Way of Government Infrastructure Projects 8
• Normalization of US monetary policy • Slowdown in large emerging economies, particularly China • Weakness in the Euro area • Recession in Japan External Domestic • Disasters arising from natural hazards (e.g., typhoons, prolonged monsoon rains, El Ñino) • Disruptions in the peace process • Delays in infrastructure and reconstruction projects • Logistics bottlenecks • Thin power reserves We are aware of the downside risks to growth in 2015...
… and mindful of opportunities • US economic recovery • Hosting of APEC in 2015 • Implementation of ASEAN Economic Integration at the end of 2015 • Decline of global oil prices • Recent credit rating upgrade • Passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law
THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY Prospects and Outlook for 2015-2016 ARSENIO M. BALISACAN Socioeconomic Planning Secretary and Director-General NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY FOCAP Flagship & Year- Opening Annual Forum 11 February 2015

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Presentation of Sec. Arsenio Balisacan at the 2015 FOCAP Prospects for the Philippines Forum

  • 1. THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY Prospects and Outlook for 2015-2016 ARSENIO M. BALISACAN Socioeconomic Planning Secretary and Director-General NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY FOCAP Flagship & Year- Opening Annual Forum 11 February 2015
  • 2. 2015 2016 - 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 GDP in 2000 billion Php, 1960-2016 Target Real GDP growth 6.3% (2010-2014) 6.1% (2014) 7.2% (2013) 6.8% (2012) Source: PSA Structural break of potential real GDP at around 2009 2 The Philippine economy is on a high growth trajectory at the beginning of the current decade.
  • 3. 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2014 Supply side Agriculture Industry Services -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Demand side Consumption Government Investment Net exports 2.8% 4.5% 6.3% 2.8% 4.5% 6.3% Source: NEDA Ave. growth 3 Structural changes in the economy are taking place.
  • 4. Selected Indicators Actual 2013 Actual 2014 Annual Projections 2015 2016 Real GDP Growth (%) 7.2 6.1 7.0-8.0 7.0-8.0 Unemployment rate (in %) 7.2* 6.8 (FY)* 6.7 6.6 Underemployment rate (% of employed) 19.0* 18.4 (FY)* 18.0 17.0 Poverty Incidence (% of population) 24.9 (1st Sem 2013) 22.5 19.0 Our Development Targets *Estimates exclude Region 8; computation for FY'14 employment generation excludes Region 8 in Jan 2014 round of the LFS
  • 5. The vibrant view on the Philippine economy is also shared by the private sector. Source: Various sources, as of 28 January 2015 Consensus Forecast (in %) 2015 2016 2017 ADB 6.4 - - Barclays 6.5 - - Citi 6.3 - - Fitch rating 6.2 6.0 - Goldman Sachs - - - HSBC 5.6 6.1 - IMF 6.6 6.4 - Metrobank Research - - - Moody’s 6.5 - - Nomura 6.6 - - Standard and Poor’s 6.3 6.0 5.6 Standard Chartered Bank 7.0 - - UNESCAP 6.0 - - WB 6.5 6.5 - Median 6.5 6.1 5.6 Mean 6.4 6.2 5.6
  • 6. • Continue the “rebalancing” process in order to reduce vulnerability to regional/global shocks and generate more and higher-quality jobs • Continue addressing key infrastructure constraints • Keep strong focus on improving the provision of services for health, education, and disaster-risk reduction • Pass vital legislation that will help the economy to reach its highest potential 6 How do we keep the momentum in 2015-2016?
  • 7. The implementation of key infrastructure projects is vital in boosting growth this year. NEDA Board-approved Projects under the Aquino Administration (as of end-Jan 2015) Source: NEDA Projects by Status No. of Projects Amount (PhP billion) Completed Projects 7 17.6 Ongoing/ Under Implementation 58 555.4 For Implementation 28 505.9 Total 93 1,079 (USD24.31 B) Source of Financing Number of Projects Total Amount (PhP billion) PPP Ongoing 9 193.3 For implementation 14 435.0 ODA Completed 7 17.6 Ongoing 37 318.0 For implementation 9 47.0 Local Financing Ongoing 12 44.1 For implementation 5 23.9 Status of Projects according to Funding Source
  • 8. Priority legislative measures to sustain growth and make it more inclusive. • Bangsamoro Basic Law • Competition Law • Fiscal Incentives Rationalization • Rationalization of Mining Revenues • Removing investment restrictions in specific laws cited in the Foreign Investment Negative List (FINL) • Amendment to BOT Law • Amendment to BSP Charter • Customs and Tariff Modernization Act (CMTA) • Water Sector Reform Act • Amendment to Cabotage Law • National Land Use Act • Land Administration Reform Act • Acquisition of Right-of-Way of Government Infrastructure Projects 8
  • 9. • Normalization of US monetary policy • Slowdown in large emerging economies, particularly China • Weakness in the Euro area • Recession in Japan External Domestic • Disasters arising from natural hazards (e.g., typhoons, prolonged monsoon rains, El Ñino) • Disruptions in the peace process • Delays in infrastructure and reconstruction projects • Logistics bottlenecks • Thin power reserves We are aware of the downside risks to growth in 2015...
  • 10. … and mindful of opportunities • US economic recovery • Hosting of APEC in 2015 • Implementation of ASEAN Economic Integration at the end of 2015 • Decline of global oil prices • Recent credit rating upgrade • Passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law
  • 11. THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY Prospects and Outlook for 2015-2016 ARSENIO M. BALISACAN Socioeconomic Planning Secretary and Director-General NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY FOCAP Flagship & Year- Opening Annual Forum 11 February 2015