This slideshare outlines the incentives of foreign stakeholders to influence politics outside of their country. The hacking of the DNC and the use of fake news to influence the electorate are significant domestic security issues. Russian election interference raises questions about foreign strategies to influence U.S. politics and the risk these tactics pose to domestic security.

1. INCENTIVES FOR FOREIGN ACTORS TO
INFLUENCE PUBLIC OPINION
LESSONS FROM RUSSIAN ELECTION INTERFERENCE

2. — Former FBI Director James Comey
THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT
DEVELOPED A CLEAR
PREFERENCE FOR
PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP. ”
“

3. EACH ELECTION CHANGES THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
WHY WOULD RUSSIA INTERFERE?

4. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE POLICIES OF A COUNTRY’S
LEADERS - RATHER THAN THE POLICIES OF A COUNTRY.
Candidates possess different:
• Foreign Policy Agendas
• Domestic Policy Priorities
• Strategies to Achieve Goals
Every Political Candidate Can Either be an Ally or Potential Threat to a
Political Leader in another country.
© Gaga Skidmore

5. WHAT HAPPENS HERE … DOES NOT STAY HERE
AN INTERCONNECTED WORLD
• Domestic policies
affect the economic
and political well-
being of other nations.
• Trade Policy
• Fiscal Policy
• Monetary Policy

6. THE THREAT OF ECONOMIC WARFARE
Economic warfare is a reality in trade and monetary policy
agendas.
Strategy-focused foreign policy leaders analyze the possible
effects of candidate policies on the economic health of their
countries.
• Economic sanctions
• Subsidies & Tariffs
• Currency manipulation
• Commodity price manipulation
A MOTIVATION FOR INTERFERENCE

7. MANAGING GEOPOLITICAL INTERESTS
IN A CHANGING DOMESTIC POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
Domestic political landscapes change
global foreign policy landscapes.
Will the new leaders….
• Protect their interests in… the
Ukraine, Syria, the South China
Sea… or elsewhere?
• Honor current treaties, trade deals
and other agreements?

8. TO INTERFERE OR NOT TO INTERFERE?
RUSSIA’S LEADERSHIP HAS CHOICES
• Russia’s leaders have political
and economic reasons for
election outcome preferences.
• The chess pieces can either
move in a country’s favor - or
opposite a country’s interests.
• If Russia does not interfere, an
unfavorable outcome may
make the political landscape
more difficult to navigate.
© Andy Brown

9. ALL POLITICAL LEADERS CLOSELY WATCH FOREIGN ELECTIONS
RUSSIA IS NOT ALONE IN THESE CONCERNS
Will the next President of “Country
X” or leaders in Parliament/Congress
of “Country Y”…
• Be an ally in negotiations?
• Imperil our interests?
What strategies can we implement…
• In the aftermath of an
unfavorable outcome?
• To prevent an unfavorable
outcome?
© Adam Hicks

10. — Former President Barack Obama on Brexit
OUR INTELLIGENCE TEAMS WORK
EXTREMELY CLOSELY, OUR MILITARIES
WORK EXTREMELY CLOSELY
TOGETHER…WE RELY HEAVILY ON THE
UK AS A PARTNER GLOBALLY ON A
WHOLE RANGE OF ISSUES - WE LIKE
YOU HAVING MORE INFLUENCE.
”
“

11. BREXIT: CHANGED THE GLOBAL POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
• UK influence within the EU …
increased US influence in
European politics.
• The US lost a close ally within the
European Union.
• Intelligence and Military Officials
had to re-asses political risks
within the EU and the UK.
• Would US and UK interests have a
stronger or weaker voice post-
Brexit?

12. Foreign Policy Leaders have a motivation to influence public
opinion in democratic elections to protect their government’s
geopolitical and economic interests in foreign government election
outcomes.
Public Opinion
Democratic Elections
Future Political Leaders Geopolitical & Economic Policies
Stakeholders including foreign
government actors

13. PUBLIC OPINION: A WILDCARD OR A PAWN?
THE ROLE OF PUBLIC OPINION IN POLITICAL STRATEGIES
• Public opinion is a deciding factor in elections.
• PACs, politicians, political groups, and political party
leadership all engage in activities to influence public
opinion.
• Political elections imply a risk to foreign policy actors.
• Foreign stakeholders also have an incentive to
influence public opinion outside of their government.

14. So, We Must Ask:
• How much influence should
foreign governments have in
elections?
• What strategies might they
employ?
• Does this pose a harm to
domestic interests?
• How do we define “domestic
interests”?
© Kirsty Pargeter