The document summarizes Dawn J. Bennett's article "The Problem with Great Expectations" which argues that President Trump faces significant economic challenges. Specifically, it outlines four "swamps" that could undermine the economy if not addressed: uncontrolled national debt, the hidden fiscal gap, short-term debt maturity, and potential double-digit inflation. It notes that experts have warned that the current economic situation could lead to a major stock market correction or dollar crisis that Trump may not be able to prevent.
For a class assignment on the 2007-08 economic crisis. We focused on the idea of a "Shifting Economic Position" as the major reason for the crisis (as per assignment) - Leave a comment if you download, please!
Incentives for Foreign Actors to Influence Public Opinion: Lessons from Russi...Debra Ray
This slideshare outlines the incentives of foreign stakeholders to influence politics outside of their country. The hacking of the DNC and the use of fake news to influence the electorate are significant domestic security issues. Russian election interference raises questions about foreign strategies to influence U.S. politics and the risk these tactics pose to domestic security.
arifanee.com is world's leading website on the hottest financial news, perspectives and behind the scenes stories. arifanees.com brings you insight and information to inspire and transform your paradigm by enriching your with the best of facts and the vision.
arifanees.com
Information-Inspiration-Transformation
Some thoughts on the state of the US economy and what we CAN all do about it - short of a Revolution....
We can all be successful as idividuals. We need to take control of our destiny!
If the US has defaulted on its debts the government will not be able to step in and lend a hand. If that were to be the case, we could be looking at another Great Depression. The connection between a US debt default and your investments would be such that many would lose substantial portions of their portfolios.
https://youtu.be/AmJt2P6QHAw
For a class assignment on the 2007-08 economic crisis. We focused on the idea of a "Shifting Economic Position" as the major reason for the crisis (as per assignment) - Leave a comment if you download, please!
Incentives for Foreign Actors to Influence Public Opinion: Lessons from Russi...Debra Ray
This slideshare outlines the incentives of foreign stakeholders to influence politics outside of their country. The hacking of the DNC and the use of fake news to influence the electorate are significant domestic security issues. Russian election interference raises questions about foreign strategies to influence U.S. politics and the risk these tactics pose to domestic security.
arifanee.com is world's leading website on the hottest financial news, perspectives and behind the scenes stories. arifanees.com brings you insight and information to inspire and transform your paradigm by enriching your with the best of facts and the vision.
arifanees.com
Information-Inspiration-Transformation
Some thoughts on the state of the US economy and what we CAN all do about it - short of a Revolution....
We can all be successful as idividuals. We need to take control of our destiny!
If the US has defaulted on its debts the government will not be able to step in and lend a hand. If that were to be the case, we could be looking at another Great Depression. The connection between a US debt default and your investments would be such that many would lose substantial portions of their portfolios.
https://youtu.be/AmJt2P6QHAw
Watch the following video and respond to the questions belowhtt.docxmelbruce90096
Watch the following video and respond to the questions below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImQrUjlyHUg
(1) What is your opinion of Mark Pagel's explanation of language and humanity? (i.e., do you think his explanation of the evolution of language adequately addresses how humans have been impacted by the ability to communicate).
(2) How do you think "social learning" has influenced humanity? (think of the good and bad).
(3) Are there any additional thoughts that came to mind as you were watching this video?
Don’t Look Back in Anger at Bailouts and Stimulus
By Alan S. Blinder And Mark Zandi
The Wall Street Journal
Oct. 15, 2015 6:32 p.m. ET
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in an Oct. 6 interview on the Fox Business Network. PHOTO:
RICHARD DREW/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Without the emergency measures of 2008-09, the U.S.
economy would be far worse off today.
The publicity surrounding former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s memoir prompts a
look-back at the stunning array of policy responses promulgated by the Fed, Congress and two
administrations to avert catastrophe during the financial crisis in 2008-09. This is important
because many of these initiatives haven’t aged well in the eyes of politicians and the public.
TARP, fiscal stimulus, quantitative easing and auto bailout remain dirty words to many people
who increasingly blame them for prolonging the Great Recession and the slow pace of recovery.
But in a study released Thursday for the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, we found the
reverse to be true: These extraordinary policies ended the crisis and jump-started an economic
recovery that is stronger in the U.S. than in most countries.
Specifically, we estimate that:
• The peak-to-trough decline in real gross domestic product, which was barely more than 4%,
would have been close to a stunning 14%.
• The contraction would have lasted three years, more than twice as long as it did.
Don’t Look Back in Anger at Bailouts and Stimulus
By Alan S. Blinder And Mark Zandi
The Wall Street Journal
Oct. 15, 2015 6:32 p.m. ET
• More than 17 million jobs would have been lost, about twice the actual number.
• Unemployment would have peaked at just under 16%, rather than at 10%.
• The federal budget deficit would have ballooned to $2.8 trillion, equal to 18% of GDP,
compared with its actual peak of 10%.
• Today’s economy would be far weaker than it is—with real GDP about $800 billion lower, 3.6
million fewer jobs, and unemployment still at 7.6%.
The overwhelming nature of the fiscal and monetary policy responses is the main reason we
didn’t suffer a much-worse fate. Yet history is in danger of giving the powerful 2008-09
responses a misguided Bronx cheer.
Start with TARP. The Troubled Asset Relief Program was deeply unpopular in part because it
was so large—a $700 billion bailout fund—and aimed primarily at “Wall Street.” It felt wrong to
bail out guilty parties, and many.
Who was President Obama
What as Tarp?
Federal Reserve
Who is the Federal Reserve?
Is the Federal Reserve independent?
Keynesian Economics
Job Creation
GDP/USA
Housing Starts
Income inequality
Environment / Energy
Environment / Clean Technology
Ziad Abdelnour, Lebanese American author, trader and financier is President & CEO of Blackhawk Partners, Inc., a “private family office” that backs talented operating executives in growing their companies both organically and through acquisitions and trades physical commodities.
Brazil’s Currency CrisisBy Team IV ( Chris Trick, Austin.docxAASTHA76
Brazil’s Currency Crisis
By Team IV ( Chris Trick, Austin Weaver, Tim Moore, Pat Heffernan, Chris Barnes
Why Brazil MattersBiggest economy in Latin AmericaOne of the last big countries to attempt free trade and privatization; if this fails international investors discouraged.Unified global economy is threatened if Brazilian currency fails.
HistoryBrazil had been through 6 currencies since the 1960’sIn 1994 the Real Plan was adoptedBefore it were a series of failed plans (the Cruzado Plan of 1986, Bresser plan of 1987, and more)It worked well to tame inflation and maintain exchange rate stability for 5 years
HistoryThe Real was initially indexed one-for-one with the dollarIt was quickly allowed to float thoughA policy of high interest rates to discourage speculation and over-borrowing quickly attracted a surge of capital inflowsBy the mid 1995 the Real Plan evolved into a crawling peg
HistorySaid to be the worst currency crisis in the western hemisphere to dateThe Real Plan was one of the longest running exchange rate stabilization programs
Facts of Life Before Crisis43% of Brazilians – over sixty million people - lack the essentials of a decent lifeOne in three children drop out of school without completing primary Drug gangs rule the favelas and the middle class lives behind bolted doors Half a million North-eastern farmers watch crops wither in yet one more drought The urban environment, home to four out of five Brazilians, is deteriorating fast Blacks, over-represented amongst the poor, suffer social discrimination Indians face severe threats to their economic and cultural survivalThe income gap between men and women is the worst in Latin America
Why Peg to Dollar?Needed to convince domestic and international investors that chronic inflation would be stopped.Before Real Plan, inflation was 3000%.Fixing the exchange rate was easier then reducing government commitments.
The FallIt was in a financially fragile stateIt required large capital inflows to build up the central bank to defend currencyThis built investor confidence and led to exchange rate appreciationThis fueled import-driven consumption and stifles export growthIn order to attract the inflows the real interest rate had to rise
The FallThe high interest rates lead to a rising debt burden and a deteriorating fiscal balanceA rising budget deficit and deteriorating trade balance inevitably lead to devaluationIt just could not finance its current account deficit due to insufficient long-term instruments
The FallInvestors came to believe the capital inflows were insufficient to finance its current account deficitProductivity did grow from the imported capital goods The industrial restructuring it caused was not enough to fight off the deteriorating trade balance as unemployment rose
The FallSpeculative pressure built up and it became harder and harder for the central bank to maintain the rateEventually the peg had to break; calling for a floating rat ...
The world has not learned the lessons of the financial crisisBan.docxpelise1
The world has not learned the lessons of the financial crisis
Banks are safer, but too much of what has gone wrong since 2008 could happen again
WHEN historians gaze back at the early 21st century, they will identify two seismic shocks. The first was the terrorist attacks of September 11th 2001, the second the global financial crisis, which boiled over ten years ago this month with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. September 11th led to wars, Lehman’s bankruptcy to an economic and political reckoning. Just as the fighting continues, so the reckoning is far from over.
Lehman failed after losing money on toxic loans and securities linked to America’s property market. Its bankruptcy unleashed chaos. Trade fell in every country on which the World Trade Organization reports. Credit supplied to the real economy fell, by perhaps $2trn in America alone. To limit their indebtedness, governments resorted to austerity. Having exhausted the scope to cut interest rates, central bankers turned to quantitative easing (creating money to buy bonds).
Just as the causes of the financial crisis were many and varied, so were its consequences. It turbocharged today’s populist surge, raising questions about income inequality, job insecurity and globalization. But it also changed the financial system. The question is: did it change it enough?
To splurge is human
One way—the wrong way—to judge progress would be to expect an end to financial crises. Systemic banking meltdowns are a feature of human history. The IMF has counted 124 of them between 1970 and 2007. There is no question that they will occur again, if only because good times breed complacency. Consider that the Trump administration is deregulating finance during an economic boom and that the Federal Reserve has not yet raised counter-cyclical capital requirements. Even when prudence prevails, no regulator is a perfect judge of risk.
A better test is whether the likelihood and size of crises can be reduced. On that, the news is both good and bad.
First, the good. Banks must now fund themselves with more equity and less debt. They depend less on trading to make money and on short-term wholesale borrowing to finance their activities. Even in Europe, where few banks make large profits, the system as a whole is stronger than it was. Regulators have beefed up their oversight, especially of the largest institutions that are too big to fail. On both sides of the Atlantic banks are subject to regular stress tests and must submit plans for their own orderly demise. Derivatives markets of the type that felled AIG, an insurer, are smaller and safer. Revamped pay policies should prevent a repeat of the injustice of bankers taking public money while pocketing huge pay-packets—in 2009 staff at the five biggest banks trousered $114bn.
Yet many lessons have gone unlearned. Take, for example, policymakers’ mistakes in the aftermath of the crisis. The state had no choice but to stand behind failing banks, but it took the ill.
Alternative Currencies: The Solution to the Economic Crisis?Brian McConnell
"What is now being called the 'Great Recession' shows no sign of ending either in the U.S. or elsewhere in the world. What then should be done? In many locations people are increasingly turning to creation of alternative currencies. But can these really be effective?
This and many other questions will be addressed by Richard C. Cook, author and retired U.S. Treasury analyst."
As a resident of Roanoke and director of the Peace Spiritual Center, Richard brings a wealth of information and an open-eyed critique of the most discussed solutions as well as examples from both ancient and recent history.
Similar to The Problem with Great Expectations (20)
2. Dawn J. Bennett: Trump in Trouble?
• President Donald Trump has not inherited a strong
economy, despite assurances from the previous
administration. Money printing and economic stimulus
efforts aren’t helping.
• By pointing to stock market gains as immediate progress
and a rapid-fire execution of executive orders, Trump
hasn’t made his situation any better.
• The “financial elites” who ran the Federal Reserve and
economic policies under the Obama administration are
setting Trump up to fail.
3. “Drain the Swamp.”
• Trump has repeatedly voiced plans to “drain the
swamp” when it comes to Washington, D.C.
insiders.
• Such insiders include:
Former government officials who become
lobbyists
Business official appointed to government roles
Campaign donors who receive political favors
4. The Unseen “Swamps”
• Trump must address four more swamps if he
wants to thrive economically:
Uncontrolled national debt
Hidden fiscal gap
Short-term debt maturity
Double-digit inflation
• These four “swamps” were singled out for
current or expected negative impacts on the
U.S. economy.
5. National Debt and the Fiscal Gap
• The first swamp, debt, must be drained if the U.S.
expects to move forward with economic recovery
without adding to the existing $20 trillion bonded
debt.
• The second swamp, our hidden fiscal gap, equates
to a credit card bill that has yet to come due. Some
experts peg our obligations to between $50 and
$100 trillion.
6. Debt Maturity and Inflation
• According to estimates, 60 percent of the U.S.’s $20
trillion in public debt will come due and be payable
during Trump's first term. Printing money to cover
this cost will only weaken our economy.
• Trump’s plans for massive infrastructure and military
spending will likely boost inflation rates with it.
Double-digit inflation rivaling the crisis of the 197os
could result if inflation is handled inappropriately.
7. Backing up the Claims
• Economist James Dale Davidson believes that a 5o
percent collapse is coming. He predicted the crashes of
1999 and 2007.
• Mark Faber, publisher of “Gloom Boom Doom,”
believes that Trump could not prevent a dollar crisis or
a spike in the prices of gold and silver.
• Economist Andrew Smithers believes U.S. stocks are
about 80 percent overvalued.
• Ann Rutledge, of Forbes, believes that a slide began in
2013 and is presently under way.
• Peter Costa, president of Empire Executions, is pulling
his assets out of the market under the belief that a
“major correction” is not far off.
8. To Learn More
• Dawn J. Bennett is the founder and CEO of Bennett
Group Financial Services and host of Financial Myth
Busting.
• Read her complete article, “The Problem with Great
Expectations,” here.