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Improved forecast better coaching v2

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Christian Maurer
Christian Maurer

This document discusses improving sales forecasting and coaching in large sales organizations. It presents a "leaky funnel" model for predicting sales based on the number of deals, expected close dates, and leakage rates at different stages. Variables like deal size and combined leakage rates are used to calculate forecasts. Coaching salespeople involves ensuring they have the right behaviors, messages, and moments to influence customers' movement through the funnel and decision making. Monitoring the real funnel against ideal targets also helps guide the sales process.

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© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource1 The Ultimate Sales Executive Resource Productivity through effectiveness Improving Sales Forecast and Coaching In Large Sales Organizations Industry Day GSSI 2013 Christian Maurer
© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource2 Typical Forecasting Agenda Managers Friday PreaprarePreaprarePreaprarePreaprare Forecast ForecastForecast ForecastForecast ForecastForecast Forecast callcallcallcall Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Salesperson Friday ForecastForecastForecastForecast callscallscallscalls Saturday Sunday Monday ForecastForecastForecastForecast callscallscallscalls ForecastForecastForecastForecast callscallscallscalls Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource3 Won , 46% Ultimate Outcome of Forecast Quelle: CSO Insights: Sales Management Optimization Key Trends Analysis 2013 No Decision , 22% Lost, 32%
© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource6 “Decision rules with a few variables predict better than people." Paul E. Meehl [1920 – 2003] Judgmental Forecasting versus Decision Rules
© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource7 Leaky Funnel Principle * * Hugh Macfarlane: “The Leaky Funnel”
© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource12 Customer Centric Gates to Position Deal in Funnel Satisfaction Buy Individual Pain Organizational Pain Need for action Implement Hedging Vision Individual Status Quo Organizational Status Quo Won
© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource13 Velocity Considerations Satisfaction Buy Individual Pain Organizational Pain Need for action Implement Hedging Vision Individual Status Quo Organizational Status Quo Won Expected Close date t t t t
© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource14 Variables to Produce Order Entry Forecast Satisfaction Buy Individual Pain Organizational Pain Need for action Implement Hedging Vision Individual Status Quo Organizational Status Quo Won #Deals Leakage rates Size Expected Close date
© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource15 Leaky Funnel as a Model to Predict Order Entry FOR Deal 1 to n DO IF ‘FC Flag = TRUE THEN IF ‘expected close date’ > ‘today’ AND ‘expected close date’ < ‘FC Date’ THEN Forecast = Forecast + (‘Size of Deal’*( 1 – ‘combined leakage rate at gate’) END FOR
© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource16 Forecast Errors Reduced with Wider Focus Satisfaction Buy Individual Pain Organizational Pain Need for action Implement Hedging Vision Individual Status Quo Organizational Status Quo Won Formal Vendor Selection RFQ
© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource17 Ideal Funnel as a Monitoring Tool 1/leakage rate Goal
© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource18 Real Funnel
© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource19 How Influence the Real Funnel Shape Having value added interactions with customers to get to decisions. DecisionRight Message Right Behavior Right Moment Right Person
© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource20 Right Moment Levers to Influence the Real Funnel Shape Methodologies (Strategic) "Right Person, Message" Skills (Tactical) "Right Behavior" Opportunity Management Building Rapport Questioning Technique Presentation Technique Negotiation Account Management Messagiing
© 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource21 Resolve the Juxtaposition Result Behavior SFCS SFMS SFGS SFCS: Sales Force Control System SFMS: Sales Force Monitoring System SFGS: Sales Force Guidance System

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Improved forecast better coaching v2

  • 1. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource1 The Ultimate Sales Executive Resource Productivity through effectiveness Improving Sales Forecast and Coaching In Large Sales Organizations Industry Day GSSI 2013 Christian Maurer
  • 2. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource2 Typical Forecasting Agenda Managers Friday PreaprarePreaprarePreaprarePreaprare Forecast ForecastForecast ForecastForecast ForecastForecast Forecast callcallcallcall Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Salesperson Friday ForecastForecastForecastForecast callscallscallscalls Saturday Sunday Monday ForecastForecastForecastForecast callscallscallscalls ForecastForecastForecastForecast callscallscallscalls Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
  • 3. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource3 Won , 46% Ultimate Outcome of Forecast Quelle: CSO Insights: Sales Management Optimization Key Trends Analysis 2013 No Decision , 22% Lost, 32%
  • 4. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource6 “Decision rules with a few variables predict better than people." Paul E. Meehl [1920 – 2003] Judgmental Forecasting versus Decision Rules
  • 5. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource7 Leaky Funnel Principle * * Hugh Macfarlane: “The Leaky Funnel”
  • 6. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource12 Customer Centric Gates to Position Deal in Funnel Satisfaction Buy Individual Pain Organizational Pain Need for action Implement Hedging Vision Individual Status Quo Organizational Status Quo Won
  • 7. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource13 Velocity Considerations Satisfaction Buy Individual Pain Organizational Pain Need for action Implement Hedging Vision Individual Status Quo Organizational Status Quo Won Expected Close date t t t t
  • 8. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource14 Variables to Produce Order Entry Forecast Satisfaction Buy Individual Pain Organizational Pain Need for action Implement Hedging Vision Individual Status Quo Organizational Status Quo Won #Deals Leakage rates Size Expected Close date
  • 9. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource15 Leaky Funnel as a Model to Predict Order Entry FOR Deal 1 to n DO IF ‘FC Flag = TRUE THEN IF ‘expected close date’ > ‘today’ AND ‘expected close date’ < ‘FC Date’ THEN Forecast = Forecast + (‘Size of Deal’*( 1 – ‘combined leakage rate at gate’) END FOR
  • 10. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource16 Forecast Errors Reduced with Wider Focus Satisfaction Buy Individual Pain Organizational Pain Need for action Implement Hedging Vision Individual Status Quo Organizational Status Quo Won Formal Vendor Selection RFQ
  • 11. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource17 Ideal Funnel as a Monitoring Tool 1/leakage rate Goal
  • 12. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource18 Real Funnel
  • 13. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource19 How Influence the Real Funnel Shape Having value added interactions with customers to get to decisions. DecisionRight Message Right Behavior Right Moment Right Person
  • 14. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource20 Right Moment Levers to Influence the Real Funnel Shape Methodologies (Strategic) "Right Person, Message" Skills (Tactical) "Right Behavior" Opportunity Management Building Rapport Questioning Technique Presentation Technique Negotiation Account Management Messagiing
  • 15. © 2013 Christian Maurer All rights reserved The Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive ResourceThe Ultimate Sales Executive Resource21 Resolve the Juxtaposition Result Behavior SFCS SFMS SFGS SFCS: Sales Force Control System SFMS: Sales Force Monitoring System SFGS: Sales Force Guidance System