Impact of Trade Policy to Stabilize Domestic Prices on International Food Price Volatility
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This document analyzes how governments' use of trade policies to insulate domestic food prices from international volatility can exacerbate price spikes on global markets. When food prices spike up or down, governments often adjust trade restrictions to partially offset the change for domestic producers and consumers. However, the combined effect of many countries doing this is to increase international price changes. Estimates suggest trade policy changes contributed significantly, around 20-30%, to the large rice, wheat and maize price spikes of 2005-2008. Without these altered trade restrictions, international prices would not have risen as much. The document calls for multilateral disciplines on both export and import restrictions to reduce this effect in the future.
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![Impact of trade policy to stabilize domestic prices on international food price volatility Kym Anderson and Signe Nelgen (drawing on collaborations also with Will Martin) University of Adelaide [email_address] IFPRI Board of Trustees Policy Seminar, Washington DC, 5 December 2011](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ifpridc120511-111206100441-phpapp02/85/Impact-of-Trade-Policy-to-Stabilize-Domestic-Prices-on-International-Food-Price-Volatility-1-320.jpg)
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1) The document discusses inflation and factors influencing food prices in India. It provides background on inflation types and how it is measured.
2) Zero inflation occurs when the inflation rate is 0%, providing economic stability but limiting growth. Examples discussed are the US and UK reaching zero inflation briefly.
3) Food inflation in India is currently around 4.4% due to factors like government policies, rising minimum support prices, international commodity prices, changes in dietary consumption, and issues around production and supply chains.
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Various measures are used to measure inflation in Pakistan including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Wholesale Price Index (WPI), and Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI). These key indicators show a substantial decrease in inflation rates from 2013-2014 to 2014-2015. CPI decreased from 8.3% to 4.8%, WPI decreased from 8.7% to 0.03%, and SPI decreased from 9.8% to 1.9% over the same period. The National Price Monitoring Committee (NPMC) was established to monitor prices and supply of essential goods to help control inflation. Sasta bazaars, where goods are sold at lower prices, also contributed to lowering inflation for consumers.
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Impact of Trade Policy to Stabilize Domestic Prices on International Food Price Volatility
- 1. Impact of trade policy to stabilize domestic prices on international food price volatility Kym Anderson and Signe Nelgen (drawing on collaborations also with Will Martin) University of Adelaide [email_address] IFPRI Board of Trustees Policy Seminar, Washington DC, 5 December 2011
- 5. Qua n tity of international trade Price ES 1 ES 0 ED 0 Q 0 Q 1 E 1 E 0 P 1 P 0
- 6. Quantity of international trade Price ES 2 ES 1 ES 0 ED 0 Q 0 Q 1 Q 2 E 1 E 2 E 0 P 1 P x P 0 P 2
- 7. Quantity of international trade Price ES 1 ES 0 ED 0 ED’ Q 0 Q’ Q 1 E’ E 1 E 0 M N P’ P 1 P 0
- 8. Quantity of international trade Price ES 2 ES 1 ES 0 ED 0 ED ’ Q 0 Q’ Q 1 Q 2 E 3 E’ E 1 E 2 E 0 M N P 3 P’ P 1 P x P 0 P 2
- 13. Short-run price transmission elasticity ests. Globally, 1970-2010 Rice 0.41 Wheat 0.57 Maize 0.67
- 14. Rice NRA, global wted. av. 1970-2010
- 17. Int’l price rises (cumulative, nominal, %) 1972-74 2005-08 Rice 300 127 Wheat 158 100 Maize 135 126 Soybean 98 90 Sugar 309 29
- 18. Proportional contribution of trade tax changes to int’l price spikes 1972-74 2005-08 Rice 0.27 0.31 Wheat 0.23 0.13 Maize 0.18 0.18 Soybean 0.01 0.45 Sugar 0.18 0.56
- 19. Decomposing policy contributions, 2005-08 TOTAL PROPORT’L CONTRIB’N High-income countries Developing countries Importing countries Exporting countries Rice 0.31 0.01 0.30 0.13 0.18 Wheat 0.13 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.07 Maize 0.18 0.08 0.10 0.07 0.11 Soybean 0.45 0.17 0.28 0.21 0.24 Sugar 0.56 0.11 0.45 0.30 0.26
- 20. How much would int’l prices have risen in 2005-08 without altered trade restrictions (%)? International price rise Domestic price rises including contribution of changed trade restrictions net of contribution of changed trade restrictions All countries Developing countries High-income countries Rice 127 78 65 64 66 Wheat 100 84 98 60 113 Maize 126 112 106 78 129