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Imminent DEATH from SCADA New Product Introduction
The document discusses the introduction of a new product aimed at improving asset management and life extension for rotating equipment by providing various levels of visibility into asset failures. It emphasizes the need for a proactive maintenance approach, using prognostics to extend the remaining useful life of components while reducing false positives associated with traditional monitoring methods. The solution integrates material science with operational data, positioning it as a comprehensive approach for risk management in asset operations.
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Imminent DEATH from SCADA New Product Introduction
- 1. 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH fromSCADA: New Product
- 2. 0-3 months 5-30 years 3months- years5 What Visibility intoAsset Failure Do You Want? …But the needs are here! Use lifing models to assess financial risk. Compare suppliers & get the right configuration into your asset. Rolling forecast on RUL of assets. Life extension solutions & Buy on Life, not just price. Execute on Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Visibility 2 Visibility 1Visibility 3 Most Wind Operators focus here… 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product
- 3. Visibility 1 Pro-Active vs. Reactive 0 mos+3 mos Machine FailureFailure Detection This was THEN… Reactive Maintenance Pro-active Maintenance 0-3 months Execute on Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Visibility 1 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product
- 4. LIFE & DEATH 2/24/2016 0mos+3 mos Machine Failure Failure Detection Pro-active Maintenance Failure Start LIFE Extension Imminent DEATH! This is NOW… Reactive Maintenance 0-3 months 5-30 years 3months- years5 Visibility 2 Visibility 1Visibility 3 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product
- 5. Sentient Science Pedigree Mission:To be the leading asset life extension, asset planning, and component Buy on Life™ solution provider for rotating equipment Extend the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) through Prognostics 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product
- 6. How We ApplyMaterial Science to V2 and V3? 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product Risk Managers Asset Managers Operations Managers Visibility 2 Engineering, Logistics, Manufacturing, Purchasing & Sales – Buy on DeathTM Monitoring – Remaining Life – Monitor on DeathTM Maintainers – Maintain on DeathTM Asset Managers – Life Extension & Budget, Plan, Forecast on LifeTM Source on LifeTM Buy on LifeTM Development – M&A – Buy on LifeTM Risk Managers - CEO, CFO, CRO – Insure On LifeTM, Warranty of LifeTM Visibility 1Visibility 3
- 7. We Roll upFleet Risk Site 1 Site 2 Site 3 Site 4 Site 5 Site 6 Site 7 Site 8 Fleet 1 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product
- 8. We Rank IndividualTurbine Risk SITE 1 SITE 2 FLEET 1 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product 2/24/2016
- 9. We Identify HighestRisk Components by Turbine 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product
- 10. We tell youcomponent failure risk… What do you do NEXT? 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product
- 11. What is inthe Market Today…for Quantifying Risk of Failure • Actuarial Modeling • DigitalClone® Live • CMS • Oil Particle • Etc. • Borescope / • Visual Inspection • SCADA Outlier • SCADA Non-parametric model • FEA approaches + Physical test • Historical Weibulls • DigitalClone® Live 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product “V1”“V2”“V3” SCADA Only Solutions People Only Solutions Sensors Physics ModelsBearing Play
- 12. Pros and Consof “V1” Technologies The problem with the current V1 solutions… cost & accuracy causing false alarms / detection shortfalls 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product Technical Approach Pros Cons Sensor • Can detect sub-component issues • High Cost of deployment • Narrow component coverage • Expertise to interpret People • Subject matter expertise • High Cost per climb • Expertise not Scalable SCADA • Lower cost • Large component coverage • False Positives • Limited sub-component detection Physics Model • Accuracy (Ground Truth Model) • Millions of dollars per model • Availability of tests rigs • Outside of military budgets, not commercial feasible
- 13. OEMs not structured/ Incentivized to give Operators future predictions…they operate in V1 What are Our Customers Are Telling Us 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product • Using “Big Data” to look for Needle in Haystack not working… • With Sentient Prognostics we already know the component(s) that will fail – i.e. the needle location…don’t need to look through the haystack • A second opinion confirming the prediction without going up-tower to establish work orders and logistics • They want products developed with and for the operator 0-3 months Visibility 1
- 14. Using SCADA DataCan be Effective… • Big Data Approach… • Too many false positives…OK for Airlines, not OK for Wind • Lower false positives, but targeted Non- Parametric Modeling Outlier Detection / Targeted algorithms When you know the failure mode When false positives are OK, Or don’t have any knowledge of failure modes Set Thresholds Gather Historical Data Train Model to create baseline under multiple operation conditions Evaluate Failure (RCA) Identify parameters are influenced Set Thresholds 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product
- 15. The Merging ofall Three Visibilities 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product Fusing Material Science Models with Targeted SCADA Algorithms Sentient’s Strategy: A single solution for V1, V2, V3 HSS Bearing2 SCADA
- 16. 1. Combines SentientMaterial Models + Operational SCADA Data and Analytics for a comprehensive solution 2. No additional hardware, no additional sensors required 3. A second opinion for components already defined to be approaching failure from DigitalClone Live material-based models 4. Includes full turbine operational reporting (asset condition, data analytics, events management & notification, business intelligence, etc.) 5. Priced in the $300-500/MW range per turbine 6. Available for demonstration March 2016 Introducing DigitalClone® Live for Imminent DEATH 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product
- 17. What Visibility intoAsset Failure Do You Want? 2/24/2016 Imminent DEATH from SCADA: New Product DigitalClone® Live 0-3 months 5-30 years 3months- years5 Use lifing models to assess financial risk. Compare suppliers & get the right configuration into your asset. Rolling forecast on RUL of assets. Life extension solutions & Buy on Life, not just price. Execute on Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Visibility 2 Visibility 1Visibility 3
Editor's Notes
- #3 Exciting news to communicate today everybody. Start off by talking about new concept of visibility horizon V1 – executing on detected issues or already failed major components V2 – budgeting and evaluating actions today and how they will impact medium term risk V3 – using models to predict financial risk for extended warranty coverage, insurance, or for selling a farm But need here so you can get better manage on what happens in visibility 1 An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure
- #4 Focus on Visibility 1… 0 to 3 months It seems not too long ago… just 2009 when Condition Monitoring was just beginning to be adopted by Wind Turbine mfgs. Like GE, Siemens, Vestas, and by turbine operators. The value story was about moving from reactive (break fix) to pro-active (3mos. advanced notice)
- #5 It’s amazing what insight a couple of years can bring to perspective…the definitions have changed Reactive is no longer pre machine failure not doing anything to prevent failure start Imminent Death…damage has begun, the end is in sight… only thing you can do is extend Death… However, by being proactive in preventing the failure from starting you are extending life This is NOW
- #6 Pedigree: This is the same process the military did with us. We were built from the ground up to work with the Technologies who manage the Death process. 30M investment from DoD, DoE Built for the worlds largest OEMs 10 years design and validation Introduced into wind 18000 assets under contarct Focused on making the operators sucessful Working with suppliers to match operator demand with supply
- #7 Applied to visibility model
- #8 Material models serialized to individual field assets
- #9 We calculate the earliest possible point in time when damage is occurring on critical components that effect the life of the gearbox or drivetrain or main bearing, pitch yaw bearings, and soon blades.
- #10 Simulations done at both the system and component level to rate the drive train and subcomponents from worst to best In process now for 18000 assets, soon to be 50000 assets
- #12 For the three visibility horizons? DigitalClone Live Materials & Physics based predictions Where are the options stacked? V1…short term focus…keep the turbines running Take options and break into 4 categories
- #14 Big data… what does that mean? Got Terabytes of data coming from machine via SCADA…analytics approaches in general are not effective Do not want to undervalue point #4… let’s be realistic OEMs…turbine mfgrs, major component supplpiers… Make money selling parts and services in short term…technology options they are incentivized to provide are limited
- #15 SCADA Data is low cost implementation
- #16 By now you see where I am going with this… We talked about how Sentient is providing material science based prognostics at a component level for V2 & V3 today… by merging with the SCADA we now have a single low cost solution across the three visibilities to focus both on Life and Imminent Death. This is Sentient’s Strategy!
- #17 11: Explain what we had to to in R&D: R&D - had to invent the worlds 1st Computational Propagation model from Material science. We added 6 new PhDs. DigitalClone™ will ship with computational propagation in May. How cool is that. SCADA - low cost. scoured the earth looking at what was there. What our customers liked best. Then we went to develop it with the worlds experts in SCADA analytics. We hired Aaron Soe from the Industrial Internet Consortium. Explain the IIC. Compare different types of algorithms. Why ours is better or thee same. Then trump with digitalclone model addition.
- #18 To the question what visibility into asset failure do you want? We now have all 3… to cover life and Imminent Death