Invited presentation at International Symposium: The Future is Now - Open and Distance Universities in Europe. Athens, 5th November, 2015

1. Images of the Future:
Numbers, Narratives and Nomenclature
National Institute for Digital Learning
Dublin City University
Professor Mark Brown

2. The future is messy

3. John Pilger reminds us that despite huge
advancements in technology over the last
50 years, the wealth gap between
developed and developing countries has
more than doubled.

4. Framing perspective…

5. What type of
higher education system
do we want the use of new
learning technology
to serve?
Framing question…

6. Outline…
1. Numbers
1. Narratives
3. Nomenclature
• What do the numbers tell us?
• What narratives are being told?
• Why is nomenclature important?

7. The past can tell us
about the future

9. “Who controls the past commands the future.
Who commands the future conquers the past.”
(George Orwell)

10. 1. What do the numbers tell us?
Three
Paradoxes

11. Paradox 1
Blended, On-line and Digital (BOLD)
education is booming but the level
of concern is growing throughout the
world

12. Growth in U.S. Enrolments…
Allan, I., & Seaman, J. (2014). Grade Change: Tracking Online Education in the United States. Babson
Survey Research Group and Quahog Research Group, LLC.

13. http://www.openeducationeuropa.eu/sites/default/files/scoreboard_september2014.pdf
2014

14. Allan, I., & Seaman, J. (2014). Grade Change: Tracking Online Education in the United States. Babson
Survey Research Group and Quahog Research Group, LLC.

15. Allan, I., & Seaman, J. (2015). Grade level: Tackling online education in the United States. Babson Survey
Research Group and Quahog Research Group, LLC.

16. 66%
Education at a Glance…
Type A
OECD
Average 70%
Undergraduate
Degree

17. Guiney, P. (2014). Extramural students’ participation and achievement: Trends, patterns, highlights. New Zealand Ministry of
Education. Wellington
‘When we adjust for course level and do not focus on a particular group of
students, Massey University and the Open University have comparable
extramural [distance] course completion rates‘ (p.30).

18. UK full-time students

19. 2015

20. The public and private benefits of
higher education are clear to all but
there is a growing risk of social and
economic exclusion
Paradox 2

21. - April, 2012
2. What are the basic assumptions?

22. £1.3b
In the United Kingdom…
2013

23. Education at a Glance…

24. Ireland
Greece
NZ
Education at a Glance…

26. UNESCO.(2013).EducationforAllGlobalMonitoringReport.Paris.

27. EU Unemployment Rate
In 2014, almost 13 million people
had been unemployed for more than one year

29. Ireland
Greece
At risk of poverty or social exclusion…
EU mean

31. While the benefits of higher
education have been quantified we
know very little about the tangible
return on investment for the
subset of off-campus online/
distance learners
Paradox 3

32. “There is also almost no understanding of
the private and social benefits of distance
and online education in comparison with
those of face-to-face education” (Rumble, 2014,
p.208).

33. Recommendation
6. “National funding frameworks should create
incentives, especially in the context of new
forms of performance-based funding, for
higher education institutions to open up
education, to develop more flexible
modes of delivery and to diversify their
student population.”

34. 16%
Restrictive Funding Models

35. 2.7%
Restrictive Funding Models

37. 2015

38. “Distance Education…
…has made me the person I am today, a
productive working woman in her late forties
contributing to society. I was in my early to
middle thirties when I found distance education
and… it was a godsend to enable me to make my
life and my son’s life a much better one in the long
term. I wanted to better myself by studying while
on a benefit and not being able to afford childcare,
distance education was the best way of making my
life better...

39. “… I am now employed by a government
department in a role helping victims in the
community. I am now in a position that I am not
reliant on a benefit and not likely to need one in the
future. Where would I be if distance education was
not available to me? Still in the same place as I was
12 years ago, stuck on a benefit with no future to
speak of. Now I am… proof that it’s possible to
change your life for the better by utilizing distance
education.”
Sharon (18th Jan, 2011)
http://exmss.org/presidentsblog/2011/01/18/treat-distance-students-with-respect

40. 2. What narratives are being told?
Competing
Images

41. Latest Report...
2015

42. “An avalanche is coming. It’s hard of course, to
say exactly when. It may be sooner than we think.
Certainly there is no better time than now to seek
to understand what lies ahead for higher education
– and to prepare” (p.8)
Barber, M., Donnelly, K., & Rizvi, S. (2013). An avalanche is coming: Higher education
and the revolution ahead. Institute for Public Policy Research. London.

43. “An educational change is neither natural nor
normal, constant nor common as it involves a
deeper struggle over who will win control of
the curriculum” (Evans, 1996, p.25).

44. “It is theory that
decides what we
can observe…”
Albert Einstein

46. • Open learning
• Online learning
• Anytime, anywhere learning
E-learning •
Digital learning •
Technology-enhanced learning •
Learning Society
Knowledge Economy
Different interest groups and stakeholders borrow the
same ‘language of persuasion’ to legitimize their own hegemonic agenda
Major Competing Lenses

47. “…We risk being left
behind as other parts of
the world act more nimbly
in garnering the benefits
of technology” (p.6).

48. Reconception
• Open learning
• Online learning
• Anytime, anywhere learning
Deschooling
ReschoolingReproduction
• Monolingual
• Learning for all
• Global curriculum
• Education in change
• Diversity
• Just society
• Pillars of learning
• Education for change
• Mass education
• Quality standards
• Education as commodity
• Increased market competition
• Democratic
• Un-curriculum
• Opening access
• Unbundling learning
Learning Society
Knowledge Economy
E-learning •
Digital learning •
Technology-enhanced learning •
Different interest groups and stakeholders borrow the
same ‘language of persuasion’ to legitimize their own hegemonic agenda
Major Competing Lenses

49. The current emphasis on education in change
needs to shift to the language
of education for change.

50. LEARNING
TO BE
LEARNING
TO KNOW
LEARNING
TO DO
LEARNING
TO LIVE
TOGETHER
Digital
Capability
Digital
Inclusion
Digital
Citizenship
RECONCEPTUALIST
FRAMEWORK
Fundamental Principles for Reshaping Education
(Delors Report, 1972)

51. How well is Europe doing?

52. 3. Why is nomenclature important?
Rooted
in Identity

58. “Online learning should be in the
service of big ideas, not as
a big idea in itself”
(Brown & Costello, 2015; adapted from Barnett, 2011).

59. Conclusion

60. Conclusion
What type of
higher education system
do we want the use of new
learning technology
to serve?

61. “All education springs from images of the
future and all education creates images of the
future. Thus all education, whether so intended
or not, is a preparation for the future.
Unless we understand the future for which we
are preparing we may do tragic damage to
those we teach.”
(Toffler, 1974).
Conclusion

62. A conclusion is the place
where you got tired of thinking
(or ran out of time)

63. Thank
You!

64. Contact Details…
mark.brown@dcu.ie
@mbrownz
http://www.dcu.ie/nidl
http://www.slideshare.net/mbrownz