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The Future Is Not What It Used To Be:
A Mingled Yarn of Good and ill Together
Professor Mark Brown
Director, National Inst...
http://www.crn.com.au/news/sydney-school-bans-laptops-labels-them-scandalous-waste-of-money-417477
“We use to talk more
before someone
invented fire”
@mbrownz
National Institute for Digital Learning
• DCU Connected
• Teaching Enhancement
• Digital Learning Research
Outline…
1. Dream solutions
2. Disruptive debates
3. Designs for uncertain times
The Future Is Not What It Used To Be:
A M...
“If digital learning is the
dream solution for higher
education, then what is the
problem?”
Key question…
The Rhetoric Reality Gap
Key tension…
This presentation does NOT
contain handy hints for teachers
Advance warning…
1. Dream solutions…
1. Dream solutions…
“With the coming of the New Media, the need for
print on paper will rapidly diminish. The day will
soo...
“With the coming of the New Media, the need for
print on paper will rapidly diminish. The day will
soon arrive when the wo...
“Books will soon be obsolete in public schools.
Scholars will be instructed through the eye. It is
possible to teach every...
“I believe that the motion picture is destined to
revolutionize our educational system and that
in a few years it will sup...
“The central and dominant aim of education by
radio is to bring the world to the classroom, to
make universally available ...
“We will undoubtedly have lectures of every
conceivable kind presented to us right in our
homes, when practical television...
“Modern educators and psychologists have found,
through thousands of tests in the nations schools,
that “typewriter” child...
Project Plato – 1960s
1. Dream solutions…
Cuban, L. (1986). Teachers and machines: The classroom use of technology
since 1920. New York: Teachers’ College Press.
Te...
Gartner Hype Cycle
1. Dream solutions…
“Technology-enhanced learning involves an
ongoing cycle of hype, hope and
disappoin...
“Resilience requires
adaptation and evolution to new
environmental conditions, but retains core identity”
(Weller & Anders...
“In 50 years… there will
be only 10 institutions in
the world delivering
higher education and
Udacity has a shot at
being ...
“According to the hype cycle model, MOOCs
should now be exiting the ‘trough of
disillusionment’ and entering a period of
‘...
Allen, E., & Seaman, J., with Poulin, R., & Taylor Straut, T. (2016). Online report card: Tracking online
education in the...
Horrigan, J. (2016). Lifelong learning and technology. Pew Research Center. Available from
http://www.pewinternet.org/2016...
Students’ experiences
with MOOCs
https://library.educause.edu/resources/2015/8/2015-student-and-faculty-technology-researc...
Worldwide
75%
English
Language
1. Dream solutions…
2015 - 35 million learners
2014 - 18 million learners
http://www.onlinecoursereport.com/state-of-the-mooc-2016-a-year-of-m...
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a
technology in the short run and
underestimate the effect in the long
run.”
Amara’...
1. Dream solutions…
“A prudent question is one-half of wisdom”
Francis Bacon
http://www.slideshare.net/mbrownz
Questions…
2. Disruptive debates…
2. Disruptive debates…
Laurentius de Voltolina – 14th Century
2. Disruptive debates…
#1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the
lecture
2. Disruptive debates…
#1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the
lecture
2. Disruptive debates…
#1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the
lecture
2. Disruptive debates…
#1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the
lecture
Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences
http://www.pnas.org/content/111/23/8410
2. Disruptive debates…
#1 The flipp...
“Because no two students have the same needs and no two
teachers arrive at their best performance in the same way,
theoret...
2. Disruptive debates…
#1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the
lecture
2. Disruptive debates…
#1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the
lecture
1986 2016
Long ago our students danced at concerts, now they
click, video, share and tweet!
2. Disruptive debates…
#2 Lear...
Helsper, E. J., & Eynon, R. (2010). Digital natives: Where is
the evidence? British Educational Research Journal, 36 (3),
...
2. Disruptive debates…
http://nogoodreason.typepad.co.uk/no_good_reason/2007/11/the-vlelms-is-d.html
“The VLE is Dead”
(We...
2. Disruptive debates…
#2 Learning will be mobile and accessible any time,
anywhere from your pocket
2. Disruptive debates…
“The LMS is like a bus, it only travels on a pre-
arranged route, the bus is often late but you sti...
2. Disruptive debates…
#2 Learning will be mobile and accessible any time,
anywhere from your pocket
“At its simplest, blended learning is the
integration of classroom face-to-face
learning experiences with online learning
...
Weak sense of blending…
2. Disruptive debates…
#3 Blended learning will have transformed traditional
pedagogy
“. . . an opportunity to fundamentally redesign
how we approach teaching and learning in ways
that higher education instit...
Stronger Sense of Blending…
2. Disruptive debates…
#2 Blended learning will have transformed traditional
pedagogy
2. Disruptive debates…
#3 Blended learning will have transformed traditional
pedagogy
2. Disruptive debates…
#3 Blended learning will have transformed traditional
pedagogy
The old ‘pump, pump, dump’
model of pedagogy may still dominate practice
2. Disruptive debates…
#3 Blended learning will h...
2. Disruptive debates…
http://teachonline.ca/sites/default/files/tools-trends/downloads/making_sense_of_blended_learning-e...
“A prudent question is one-half of wisdom”
Francis Bacon
http://www.slideshare.net/mbrownz
Questions…
3. Designs for uncertain times…
‘A key principle of designing learning
for the future is to help make the
design process more explicit and
shareable’
(Con...
Conceptualise
What do we want to design, who for and why?
Consolidate
Evaluate and embed your design
The
7Cs Design
Framew...
"Using new digital technology to improve
education is not rocket science... it is
much, much harder than that”
(Diana Laur...
3. Designs for uncertain times…
Learner-Content
Interaction
Learner-learner
Interaction
Teacher-Learner
Interaction
Interactivity
Framework
Places
Tools
S...
Learner-Content
Interaction
Learner-learner
Interaction
Teacher-Learner
Interaction
Interactivity
Framework
Place of Learn...
Learning by sharing
(Connectivist)
Learning by listening
(Instructionist)
Learning by doing
(Constructivist)
Learning by m...
Off Campus
in Class
Off Campus
out of Class
On Campus
in Class
Acquisition
Participation
On Campus
out of Class
Leakage
Th...
Concept of Wrapping
Littlejohn, A., & Pegler, C. (2007). Preparing for Blended E- Learning. 70-93. New York: Routledge.
3....
3. Designs for uncertain times…
Conclusion
Conclusion
• Courage to explore new spaces
• Design for better outcomes
• Become a future maker
Three key lessons….
“Despite huge advancements in
technology over the last 50 years, the
wealth gap between developed and
developing countries...
World Bank Group. (2016). Digital dividends: World development report. Washington: A World Bank Group
Flagship Report.
Con...
“If digital learning is the
dream solution for higher
education, then what is the
problem?”
Conclusion
Access
Quality
Cost
Iron
Triangle
Conclusion
Conclusion
Go raibh
maith
agaibh!
Professor Mark Brown
Director, National Institute for Digital Learning
www.dcu.ie/nidlmark.brown@dcu.ie
@mbrownz www.slide...
The Future Is Not What It Used To Be: A Mingled Yarn of Good and ill Together
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The Future Is Not What It Used To Be: A Mingled Yarn of Good and ill Together

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Invited presentation at IT Carlow, Carlow, Ireland, 20th May 2016.

Published in: Education
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The Future Is Not What It Used To Be: A Mingled Yarn of Good and ill Together

  1. 1. The Future Is Not What It Used To Be: A Mingled Yarn of Good and ill Together Professor Mark Brown Director, National Institute for Digital Learning IT Carlow 20th May, 2016
  2. 2. http://www.crn.com.au/news/sydney-school-bans-laptops-labels-them-scandalous-waste-of-money-417477
  3. 3. “We use to talk more before someone invented fire”
  4. 4. @mbrownz
  5. 5. National Institute for Digital Learning • DCU Connected • Teaching Enhancement • Digital Learning Research
  6. 6. Outline… 1. Dream solutions 2. Disruptive debates 3. Designs for uncertain times The Future Is Not What It Used To Be: A Mingled Yarn of Good and ill Together
  7. 7. “If digital learning is the dream solution for higher education, then what is the problem?” Key question…
  8. 8. The Rhetoric Reality Gap Key tension…
  9. 9. This presentation does NOT contain handy hints for teachers Advance warning…
  10. 10. 1. Dream solutions…
  11. 11. 1. Dream solutions… “With the coming of the New Media, the need for print on paper will rapidly diminish. The day will soon arrive when the world’s literature will be available from The Automatic Library at the mere pressing of a button” (Uzanne, 1994).
  12. 12. “With the coming of the New Media, the need for print on paper will rapidly diminish. The day will soon arrive when the world’s literature will be available from The Automatic Library at the mere pressing of a button” (Uzanne, 1894). 1. Dream solutions…
  13. 13. “Books will soon be obsolete in public schools. Scholars will be instructed through the eye. It is possible to teach every branch of human knowledge with the motion picture”. (Thomas Edison, 1912) 1. Dream solutions…
  14. 14. “I believe that the motion picture is destined to revolutionize our educational system and that in a few years it will supplant largely, if not entirely, the use of textbooks,” (Thomas Edison, 1922) 1. Broken promises…
  15. 15. “The central and dominant aim of education by radio is to bring the world to the classroom, to make universally available the services of the finest teachers, the inspiration of the greatest leaders... and unfolding world events which through the radio may come as a vibrant and challenging textbook of the air.” Benjamin Darrow 1932 Director of Ohio School of the Air 1. Dream solutions…
  16. 16. “We will undoubtedly have lectures of every conceivable kind presented to us right in our homes, when practical television arrives, possibly a year or two off.” Short Wave Craft, 1935 1. Dream solutions…
  17. 17. “Modern educators and psychologists have found, through thousands of tests in the nations schools, that “typewriter” children do better work… get from 10% to 30% higher grades...” https://twitter.com/audreywatters/status/719231612865544192 1. Dream solutions…
  18. 18. Project Plato – 1960s 1. Dream solutions…
  19. 19. Cuban, L. (1986). Teachers and machines: The classroom use of technology since 1920. New York: Teachers’ College Press. Technology Expectation Cycle (1986) High Expectations Subsided Enthusiasm Growing Support 1. Dream solutions…
  20. 20. Gartner Hype Cycle 1. Dream solutions… “Technology-enhanced learning involves an ongoing cycle of hype, hope and disappointment” (Gouseti, 2010). MOOCs
  21. 21. “Resilience requires adaptation and evolution to new environmental conditions, but retains core identity” (Weller & Anderson, 2013, p.55). 1. Dream solutions…
  22. 22. “In 50 years… there will be only 10 institutions in the world delivering higher education and Udacity has a shot at being one of them” (cited in Leckart, 2013, P.28) In a March 2012 Wired cover story, Sebastian Thrun predicted: 1. Dream solutions…
  23. 23. “According to the hype cycle model, MOOCs should now be exiting the ‘trough of disillusionment’ and entering a period of ‘enlightenment’ as second-generation products and services come onto the market (Linacre, 2014, P.4) United States 1. Dream solutions…
  24. 24. Allen, E., & Seaman, J., with Poulin, R., & Taylor Straut, T. (2016). Online report card: Tracking online education in the United States. Babson Survey Research Group and Quahog Research Group. 59% 11% 1. Dream solutions…
  25. 25. Horrigan, J. (2016). Lifelong learning and technology. Pew Research Center. Available from http://www.pewinternet.org/2016/03/22/lifelong-learning-and-technology/ 1. Dream solutions…
  26. 26. Students’ experiences with MOOCs https://library.educause.edu/resources/2015/8/2015-student-and-faculty-technology-research-studies 1. Dream solutions…
  27. 27. Worldwide 75% English Language 1. Dream solutions…
  28. 28. 2015 - 35 million learners 2014 - 18 million learners http://www.onlinecoursereport.com/state-of-the-mooc-2016-a-year-of-massive-landscape-change-for-massive-open-online-courses/ 1. Dream solutions…
  29. 29. “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” Amara’s Law 1. Dream solutions…
  30. 30. 1. Dream solutions…
  31. 31. “A prudent question is one-half of wisdom” Francis Bacon http://www.slideshare.net/mbrownz Questions…
  32. 32. 2. Disruptive debates…
  33. 33. 2. Disruptive debates…
  34. 34. Laurentius de Voltolina – 14th Century 2. Disruptive debates… #1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the lecture
  35. 35. 2. Disruptive debates… #1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the lecture
  36. 36. 2. Disruptive debates… #1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the lecture
  37. 37. 2. Disruptive debates… #1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the lecture
  38. 38. Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences http://www.pnas.org/content/111/23/8410 2. Disruptive debates… #1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the lecture
  39. 39. “Because no two students have the same needs and no two teachers arrive at their best performance in the same way, theoretical exclusivity and didactic single- mindedness can be trusted to make even the best educational ideas fail”. (Sfard, 1998, p.11) 2. Disruptive debates… #1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the lecture
  40. 40. 2. Disruptive debates… #1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the lecture
  41. 41. 2. Disruptive debates… #1 The flipped classroom will have replaced the lecture
  42. 42. 1986 2016 Long ago our students danced at concerts, now they click, video, share and tweet! 2. Disruptive debates… #2 Learning will be mobile and accessible any time, anywhere from your pocket
  43. 43. Helsper, E. J., & Eynon, R. (2010). Digital natives: Where is the evidence? British Educational Research Journal, 36 (3), 503-520. 2. Disruptive debates… #2 Learning will be mobile and accessible any time, anywhere from your pocket
  44. 44. 2. Disruptive debates… http://nogoodreason.typepad.co.uk/no_good_reason/2007/11/the-vlelms-is-d.html “The VLE is Dead” (Weller, 2007) #2 Learning will be mobile and accessible any time, anywhere from your pocket
  45. 45. 2. Disruptive debates… #2 Learning will be mobile and accessible any time, anywhere from your pocket
  46. 46. 2. Disruptive debates… “The LMS is like a bus, it only travels on a pre- arranged route, the bus is often late but you still have to be on time because it won't wait if you miss it” (Downes, 2015) #2 Learning will be mobile and accessible any time, anywhere from your pocket
  47. 47. 2. Disruptive debates… #2 Learning will be mobile and accessible any time, anywhere from your pocket
  48. 48. “At its simplest, blended learning is the integration of classroom face-to-face learning experiences with online learning experiences” (Garrison & Kanuka, 2004, p.96). 2. Disruptive debates… #3 Blended learning will have transformed traditional pedagogy
  49. 49. Weak sense of blending… 2. Disruptive debates… #3 Blended learning will have transformed traditional pedagogy
  50. 50. “. . . an opportunity to fundamentally redesign how we approach teaching and learning in ways that higher education institutions may benefit from increased effectiveness, convenience and efficiency” (Vaughan, 2012). 2. Disruptive debates… #3 Blended learning will have transformed traditional pedagogy
  51. 51. Stronger Sense of Blending… 2. Disruptive debates… #2 Blended learning will have transformed traditional pedagogy
  52. 52. 2. Disruptive debates… #3 Blended learning will have transformed traditional pedagogy
  53. 53. 2. Disruptive debates… #3 Blended learning will have transformed traditional pedagogy
  54. 54. The old ‘pump, pump, dump’ model of pedagogy may still dominate practice 2. Disruptive debates… #3 Blended learning will have transformed traditional pedagogy
  55. 55. 2. Disruptive debates… http://teachonline.ca/sites/default/files/tools-trends/downloads/making_sense_of_blended_learning-eng.pdf #3 Blended learning will have transformed traditional pedagogy
  56. 56. “A prudent question is one-half of wisdom” Francis Bacon http://www.slideshare.net/mbrownz Questions…
  57. 57. 3. Designs for uncertain times…
  58. 58. ‘A key principle of designing learning for the future is to help make the design process more explicit and shareable’ (Conole, 2010, p.482). 3. Designs for uncertain times…
  59. 59. Conceptualise What do we want to design, who for and why? Consolidate Evaluate and embed your design The 7Cs Design Framework 3. Designs for uncertain times…
  60. 60. "Using new digital technology to improve education is not rocket science... it is much, much harder than that” (Diana Laurillard, 2009). 3. Designs for uncertain times…
  61. 61. 3. Designs for uncertain times…
  62. 62. Learner-Content Interaction Learner-learner Interaction Teacher-Learner Interaction Interactivity Framework Places Tools Spaces 3. Designs for uncertain times…
  63. 63. Learner-Content Interaction Learner-learner Interaction Teacher-Learner Interaction Interactivity Framework Place of Learning (Where Learning Ocurrs) Mode of Learning (How Learning Occurs) Pace of Learning (When Learning Occurs) 3. Designs for uncertain times…
  64. 64. Learning by sharing (Connectivist) Learning by listening (Instructionist) Learning by doing (Constructivist) Learning by making (Constructionist) Design compass… 3. Designs for uncertain times…
  65. 65. Off Campus in Class Off Campus out of Class On Campus in Class Acquisition Participation On Campus out of Class Leakage The Learning Ecology Physical Virtual 3. Designs for uncertain times…
  66. 66. Concept of Wrapping Littlejohn, A., & Pegler, C. (2007). Preparing for Blended E- Learning. 70-93. New York: Routledge. 3. Designs for uncertain times…
  67. 67. 3. Designs for uncertain times…
  68. 68. Conclusion
  69. 69. Conclusion • Courage to explore new spaces • Design for better outcomes • Become a future maker Three key lessons….
  70. 70. “Despite huge advancements in technology over the last 50 years, the wealth gap between developed and developing countries has more than doubled” (John Pilger, 2002). Conclusion
  71. 71. World Bank Group. (2016). Digital dividends: World development report. Washington: A World Bank Group Flagship Report. Conclusion
  72. 72. “If digital learning is the dream solution for higher education, then what is the problem?” Conclusion
  73. 73. Access Quality Cost Iron Triangle Conclusion
  74. 74. Conclusion
  75. 75. Go raibh maith agaibh!
  76. 76. Professor Mark Brown Director, National Institute for Digital Learning www.dcu.ie/nidlmark.brown@dcu.ie @mbrownz www.slideshare.net/mbrownz

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