ICv2 White Paper: Hobby Games - GAMA Expo 2022

©2022 GCO, LLC. Do not reprint without permission.
March 2022
Hobby Games – State of the Industry
ICv2 WHITE PAPER

ICv2 covers the categories that drive pop culture
• Hobby games—collectible, card, cool board, minis, RPGs
• Comics and graphic novels, including manga
• Showbiz and merch tied to geek culture properties

In print: Internal Correspondence

ICv2 Pro: For Serious Users and Supporters

Hobby Games Market Analysis
• Where do we get information?
– Interviews – Publishers, distributors, retailers, others
– Publicly traded company information
– NPD reports
– Kickstarter data, especially that released by ICO
Partners
• Estimates built up by category
• This presentation is of preliminary numbers

COVID Year 2 – Hobby Games Trends
• COVID up and down and up
• 2021 trends continued
– Still looking for at-home activities
– Conventions, in-store play remained limited
– Customers buying the familiar, more casual, less
crunchy
• Consumers returned to shopping at local game
stores
– Or from local game stores

COVID Year 2 – Hobby Game Trends
• International manufacturing and shipping slow
– Mass merchants now at 100 days from factory to shelf,
was 40
– Balance sheet strains at publisher level
• Domestic manufacturing maxed out (paper
shortages, capacity restraints)
• Kept a lid on volume

• Successful retailer, wholesaler, publisher
adaptations, especially for holidays
– Publishers paid big to get product to market
– Wholesalers learned to manage unpredictability
– Retailers stocked early, encouraged early shopping,
substituted

Three more 2022 trends:
• Hobby channel clamped down on Internet
resellers
• Store count up (limitations on collectible flippers)
• Collectibles on fire: peaked in Q2, but stayed hot
all year

What Is the Hobby Games Market?
• Games produced for a “gamer” market
• Usually but not always sold in the hobby games
channel
• The market for those games, regardless of which
channel
• Preliminary estimates for U.S. and Canada

Total Hobby Games Market –
2016-2021

2021: 13th Year of Hobby Channel Growth!
• Hobby channel up 30%
• 13th year of growth!
• Store count (of stores
buying through hobby
distribution) up
• More restrictions on
online sales
YEAR
Hobby Channel
Growth Rate
2021 30%
2020 15%
2019 5%
2018 10%
2017 5%
2016 10%

2021 – Hobby Games by Channel
• Hobby grew faster than mass (despite online
reselling reduction)
• Specialty retail coming back slowest
• Online up
• Kickstarter up 13% to $272 million (world)
– Plus $22 million Gamefound

Hobby Games Market by Category
• Collectible Games –
50% of total
• Hardcore hobby categories
75% of total
• Share of crossover
categories continuing to
decline

Collectible Games

Collectible Frenzy Through 2021
• Mass merchants cut display early in year
• Flippers buying out displays all year
• Unprecedented amounts of TCGs shipped to retail
• Production constraints led to shortfall vs. demand,
a good thing – shipping in waves

2021 Collectible Frenzy by Line
• Magic hottest in Q2, Q3
• Pokemon hot all year, especially Celebrations
• Yu-Gi-Oh! came on strong in Q4
• Flesh and Blood now in top 5, tied to collectible
surge
• New Kickstarter games getting some traction, e.g.,
MetaZoo

Top Collectible Games – Hobby Channel
Fall 2021
Rank Title Publisher
1 Pokemon TCG TPCI
2 Magic: The Gathering Wizards of the Coast
3 Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG Konami
4 D&D Icons of the Realms WizKids
5 Flesh and Blood Legend Story
6 Weiss Schwarz Bushiroad
7 Cardfight!! Vanguard Bushiroad
8 Digimon Card Game Bandai
9 Pathfinder Battles WizKids
10 Dragon Ball Super Card Game Bandai

Top Collectible Games – Mass Channel
Fall 2021
1 Pokemon Pokemon USA
3 Yu-GI-Oh! TCG Konami

Top Collectible Games – Overall
Fall 2020
1 Pokemon TCG Pokemon USA
3 Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG Konami
4 D&D Icons of the Realms WizKids
5 Flesh and Blood Legend Story

Non-Collectible Miniature Games

Never Enough Games Workshop
• GW first half up dramatically vs. shutdown period
• Second half up 6% (per half-year report)
• GW allocated new releases through the year,
especially wholesalers
• Reorder delays ongoing

Other 2021 Minis Trends
• WizKids also affected by supply chain
– Delays on restocks, new releases
• Many other lines doing well – lots of options for
consumers and retailers
• Overall trend positive – and in-store play
resuming

Top Miniatures Lines – Fall 2021
1 Warhammer 40K Games Workshop
2 Nolzur's Marvelous Miniatures WizKids
3 Age of Sigmar Games Workshop
4 Marvel Crisis Protocol Atomic Mass Games
5 Star Wars Legion Atomic Mass Games

Hobby Board Games

Board Game Demand Trends Still
COVID-Driven
• Consumers buying familiar games to play within
bubble
• Old hobby evergreens becoming mass-driven
• New evergreens driving sales in hobby channel
– Stonemaier finally close to filling demand on Wingspan
• Occasionally newer games broke through, but
introductions still challenging

Top Hobby Channel Board Games –
Fall 2021
1 Wingspan Stonemaier
2 Descent Fantasy Flight Games
3 Dune Imperium Gale Force Nine
4 Gloomhaven Cephalofair
5 Root Leder Games
6 Oath Leder Games
7 Catan Asmodee
8 Ticket to Ride Days of Wonder
9 Parks Keymaster Games
10 Lost Ruins of Arnak Czech Games Edition

Hobby Card and Dice Games

2021 Card Game Trends
• Card game trends tracked board games
• Buying for at-home play
• Positive sales momentum

Top Hobby Channel Card, Dice Games –
Fall 2021
1 Codenames Czech Games, USAopoly
2 Marvel Champions LCG Fantasy Flight Games
3 Exit Thames & Kosmos
4 Coup Indie Boards & Cards
5 Red Dragon Inn Slugfest
6 Transformer DBG Renegade
7 Uno Mattel
8 Ten Thames & Kosmos
9 Arkham Horror LCG Fantasy Flight Games
10 G.I. Joe DBG Renegade

Roleplaying Games

2021 RPG Trends
• RPGs sold strongly behind on-line play
– Lower dice sales
• D&D still strong leader (“90% of groups”)
• But lots of other lines doing well, including micro-
lines

Top Roleplaying Games –
Fall 2021
1 Dungeons and Dragons Wizards of the Coast
2 Pathfinder Paizo
3 D&D 5E Goodman Games
4 Fallout RPG Modiphius
5 Call of Cthulhu Chaosium

2022: Beating Back Challenges
• Covid unlikely to disappear, additional variants,
surges possible
• Supply chain won’t clear in 2022, but
accommodations in place
• Expect another 5%+ inflation in game prices –
where’s the limit on demand?

2022 Predictions
• Expectations low from people with best view,
hovering around zero growth
– But beating expectations so far
• Hobby retailers optimistic about hanging on to
new customers, even in collectibles (play!)
• Collectible market undersupply protecting against
big crash (most believe)
• Really tough comps

Questions and Comments
• For deck: business card with “deck” on the back

ICv2 White Paper: Hobby Games - GAMA Expo 2022

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