ICv2 White Paper - Hobby Games, Gen Con Trade Day Summer 2022

©2022 GCO, LLC. Do not reprint without permission.
August 2022
Hobby Games – State of the Industry
ICv2 WHITE PAPER

ICv2 covers the categories that drive geek culture
• Hobby games—TCGs, RPGs, miniatures, board and card games
• Comics, graphic novels, manga
• Showbiz and merchandise tied to geek culture properties

In print: Internal Correspondence

ICv2 Pro: For Serious Users and Supporters

Hobby Games Market Analysis
• Where do we get information?
– Interviews – Publishers, distributors, retailers, others
– Publicly traded company information
– NPD reports
– Kickstarter data, especially that released by ICO
Partners
• Estimates built up by category
• Season data more heavily based on interviews

What Is the Hobby Games Market?
• Games produced for a “gamer” market
• Usually but not always sold in the hobby games
channel
• The market for those games, regardless of which
channel
• Final market size estimates for U.S. and Canada

Total Hobby Games Market –
2016-2021

2021: 13th Year of Hobby Channel Growth!
• Hobby channel up 30%
• 13th year of growth!
• Store count (of stores
buying through hobby
distribution) up
• More restrictions on
online sales
YEAR
Hobby Channel
Growth Rate
2021 30%
2020 15%
2019 5%
2018 10%
2017 5%
2016 10%

2021 – Hobby Games by Channel
• Hobby grew faster than mass (despite online
reselling reduction)
• Specialty retail coming back slowest
• Online up
• Kickstarter up 13% to $272 million (world)
– Plus $22 million Gamefound

2021 Hobby Games Market by Category
• Collectible Games –
50% of total
• Hardcore hobby categories
75% of total
• Share of crossover
categories continuing to
decline

Collectible Games

Collectible Frenzy Through 2021
• Production constraints led to shortfall vs. demand, a
good thing – shipping in waves
• Magic hottest in Q2, Q3
• Pokemon hot all year, especially Celebrations
• Yu-Gi-Oh! came on strong in Q4
• Flesh and Blood now in top 5, tied to collectible surge
• New Kickstarter games getting some traction, e.g.,
MetaZoo

Non-Collectible Miniatures

2021 Minis Trends
• GW first half up dramatically vs. shutdown period
• GW second half up 6% (per half-year report)
• GW allocated new releases through the year,
especially wholesalers, reorder delays ongoing
• WizKids also affected by supply chain
– Delays on restocks, new releases
• Many other lines doing well – lots of options for
consumers and retailers

Hobby Board Games

2021 Board Game Demand Trends Still
COVID-Driven
• Consumers buying familiar games to play within
bubble
• Old hobby evergreens becoming mass-driven
• New evergreens driving sales in hobby channel
– Stonemaier finally close to filling demand on Wingspan
• Occasionally newer games broke through, but
introductions still challenging

Hobby Card and Dice Games

2021 Card Game Trends
• Card game trends tracked board games
• Buying for at-home play
• Positive sales momentum

Roleplaying Games

2021 RPG Trends
• RPGs sold strongly behind on-line play
• D&D still strong leader (“90% of groups”)
• But lots of other lines doing well, including micro-
lines

Spring 2022: Sales Surprise to Upside
• Growth in high single to low double digits,
despite tough comps
– Some increase due to price increases
• Inflation wasn’t deterring customers
• Shopping in person still increasing

Supply Chains Changing Distribution
• Supply chain backdrop of relentless delays,
inventory shortages, inventory short or in the
wrong place at the wrong times
• New ways for product to reach retail
– Kickstarter
– Direct sales (e.g., Wingspan)
– Marketplaces (Faire)
• Some retailers now sourcing less than half their
(non-TCG) supply through traditional distribution

Spring Collectible Game Sales Up
• Superheated 2021 sales gone, but buying habits,
expanded play driving sales
• Better supply, especially Pokemon TCG
– Demand down, sales up
– Differential impact store-to-store
• Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty strong Magic release
• Price increases at publisher level (Magic, Yu-Gi-
Oh!) and retail (Pokemon TCG)

Spring Collectible Game Sales Up
• Yu-Gi-Oh! growing set-over-set and year-over-
year
• D&D: Icons of the Realms riding D&D growth
• Weiss Schwarz now the strongest Bushiroad line
• Flesh and Blood now solidly in the middle ranks as
play replaces collectability as driving force
• My Hero Academia cracks chart behind Crimson
Rampage (collectors, fans of IP)

Top Collectible Games – Hobby Channel
Spring 2022
Rank Title Publisher
1 Magic: The Gathering Wizards of the Coast
2 Pokemon TCG TPCI
3 Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG Konami
4 D&D Icons of the Realms WizKids
5 Weiss Schwarz Bushiroad
6 Digimon Card Game Bandai
7 Flesh and Blood Legend Story
8 Cardfight!! Vanguard Bushiroad
9 My Hero Academia Jasco
10 Dragon Ball Super Card Game Bandai

Top Collectible Games – Mass Channel
Spring 2022
1 Pokemon Pokemon USA
3 Yu-GI-Oh! TCG Konami

Top Collectible Games – Overall
Spring 2022
1 Pokemon TCG TPCI
3 Yu-Gi-Oh! TCG Konami
4 D&D Icons of the Realms WizKids
5 Weiss Schwarz Bushiroad

Miniatures Still Getting Bigger
• Two-year Covid roll continued in Spring
– More in-store play
– Rapid growth of RPGs
• Better supply on Warhammer 40,000, especially on
new release allocations to retailers
• Battletech having a moment (now includes blind
boxes)
• Atomic Mass lines flagging

Top Miniatures Lines – Spring 2022
1 Warhammer 40K Games Workshop
2 Nolzur's Marvelous Miniatures WizKids
3 Bones Reaper
4 Age of Sigmar Games Workshop
5 Star Wars Legion Atomic Mass Games
6 Battletech Catalyst Game Labs
7 Pathfinder Deep Cuts WizKids
8 Marvel Crisis Protocol Atomic Mass Games
9 Star Wars X-Wing Atomic Mass Games
10 Malifaux Wyrd Miniatures

Huge Sales on Paint, Accessories
• Distributor shared accessory sales ratios
• Selling $80 in paints and supplies for every $100 in
miniature sales. Still room to grow as RPGs do.
• Kits, sets driving sales.
• Army Painter Speedpaint line a strong new release
• More racks in stores
• Supply chains remain an issue

Huge Sales on Paint, Accessories
• Selling $25 in dice and other RPG accessories for
every $100 in RPG sales
• Higher end sets driving up dollars ($30-$60)
• Selling $6 in card supplies for every $100 in TCG
sales (bigger pie)

New Hotness, Supply Drives Board
Game Sales
• Two big new games were Spring bestsellers
– Avalon Hill’s HeroQuest helped by high price points
– Capstone’s Ark Nova sold out at launch despite delay
• Wingspan distribution stabilized late in period
• Big supply chain impacts on this category
• Store ranges varying more

Top Hobby Channel Board Games –
Spring 2022
1 Wingspan Stonemaier
2 HeroQuest Hasbro
3 Ark Nova Capstone
4 Dune Imperium Dire Wolf Digital
5 Catan Asmodee
6 Azul Plan B
7 Isle of Cats City of Games
8 Sleeping Gods Red Raven Games
9 Dune Gale Force Nine
10 Lost Ruins of Arnak Czech Games Edition

Deck-Builders Tops in Card Games
• Deck-builders on top, lighter games slip
– Gamers gathering more than casual players
– Dominion: Allies, Marvel Legendary: Dr. Strange
– Hasbro deck-builders softer
• Codenames out of stock for some
• Marvel Champions slipping
• Retailer ranges highly variable

Top Hobby Channel Card, Dice Games –
Spring 2022
1 Dominion Rio Grande Games
2 Marvel Legendary Upper Deck
3 Coup Indie Boards & Cards
4 Codenames Czech Games/The Op
5 March Champions LCG Fantasy Flight Games
6 Red Dragon Inn Slugfest
7 Exit Thames & Kosmos
8 Uno Mattel
9 Bang! dv Giochi
10 Clank Renegade

RPGs the Story of the Year
• Heart and soul of the hobby games business on an
eight-year run, behind 5E, Critical Role, and
Stranger Things
• D&D holds two of top three spots on Top RPGs
– Critical Role, Goodman Games, short adventures
• Pathfinder softer, still #2
• Renegade’s Hasbro RPGs hit chart
• D&D movie marketing just beginning

Top Roleplaying Games –
Spring 2022
1 Dungeons and Dragons Wizards of the Coast
2 Pathfinder Paizo
3 D&D 5E Darrington, Goodman
4 G.I. Joe RPG Renegade
5 Power Rangers RPG Renegade
6 One Ring Modiphius
7 Starfinder Paizo
8 Root Magpie
9 Vampire Renegade
10 Alien Free League

For the Rest of 2022?
• Mood generally upbeat, positive expectations
– Number of customers, in-store gaming driving sales
• But…
– Inflation impact unclear as year goes on
– Consumers selling collections
– Scale of Magic: The Gathering releases scary
– Supply chain a constant concern and cost

ICv2 White Paper - Hobby Games, Gen Con Trade Day Summer 2022

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