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Coastal Flood Mitigation Canada:
Promoting Evidence-based Approaches to
Coastal Flood Risk Assessment
Institute of Catatstrophic Loss Reduction Webinar
2021-09-24 Hamlet of Tuktoyaktuk, NWT
2
Presentation Outline
1. Project Overview
2. Guidelines
3. Boundary Bay Case Study
4. Acadian Peninsula Case Study
5. Tuktoyaktuk Case Study
6. Q&A
Kelin Wang
Natural Resources
Canada
Tom James
Natural Resources
Canada
Gwyn Lintern
Natural Resources
Canada
Gavin Manson
Natural Resources
Canada
Carol Wagner
Natural Resources
Canada
Brent Baron
Indigenous
Services Canada
Jesal Shah
Emergency
Management BC
Lucina Leonard
University of
Victoria
Reza Amouzgar
Ocean Networks
Canada
Sean Mullen
Ocean Networks
Canada
Richard Thomson
Fisheries and
Oceans Canada
Teron Moore
Ocean Networks
Canada
Mark Rankin
Ocean Networks
Canada
Nicky Hastings
Natural Resources
Canada
Jackie Yip
Natural Resources
Canada
Julie Van de Valk
Natural Resources
Canada
Mike Ellerbeck
Natural Resources
Canada
Enda Murphy
National Research
Council Canada
Sean Ferguson
National Research
Council Canada
Joseph Kim
National Research
Council Canada
Fisheries and Oceans Peches et Oceans
Canada Canada
Research Team
Core Team
4
Project Overview
FUNDING
$1.5 million from Defence Research
Development Canada
$1.4 million co-invest in-kind
Total $2.9 million over 3 years
Jan 2019 to Jan 2022
GOAL
Develop and demonstrate
best practices and tools in coastal flood
risk assessment to help coastal
communities better understand and manage
flood risk from storm surge, tsunami and
sea-level rise.
RESEARCH
PARTNERS
Natural Resources Canada (lead)
National Research Council
Department of Fisheries and Oceans
Ocean Networks Canada
Emergency Management British
Columbia
Indigenous Services Canada
University of Victoria
5
Project Outcomes
Google Satellite
Imagery
Tuktoyaktuk,
NWT
Boundary
Bay, BC
Acadian
Peninsula,
NB
Three Community-level
Flood Risk Assessments
Informs Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment
Guideline
Generates new hazard data
Develop and demonstrate flood damage
modeling tools
Informs local risk reduction planning and
decision-making
6
Federal Flood Mapping Guideline Series
Federal Flood Mapping Framework
Federal Hazard ID & Priority Setting
Case Studies on CC in Floodplain Mapping vol1
Federal H&H Procedures (River)
Federal Coastal Hazard Guidelines
Federal Geomatics Guidelines
Federal Flood Risk Assessment
Federal Flood Damage Estimation Guideline
Federal Land Use Guide
Bibliographies of Best Practices & References
Published In Progress
7
Federal Guidelines – Coastal Flood Hazards
 Procedural guidance to identify & apply coastal
flood hazard assessment methods, consistent
with best-practices
 A Risk Based Approach
 With guidance on current & future flood hazards
PURPOSE
TARGET AUDIENCE
 Technical content targeted towards Canadian
practitioners tasked with conducting coastal flood
hazard assessment
 Reference information for community
representatives and decision makers
8
Federal Guidelines – Background and Introduction
The federal guidelines are being developed as a collaborative effort amongst project
partners and are informed by the outcomes of the three case studies
Boundary Bay, BC (Pacific)
Tuktoyaktuk, NWT (Arctic)
Acadian Peninsula, NB (Atlantic)
Local Experts and
Community Representatives
Project Research Team
Partnerships to support
community flood risk
assessment
Coastal Flood Hazard
Assessment Guidelines for
Risk-Based Analysis
Coastal Flood Risk Assessment Case Studies
Knowledge and expertise from
a diverse group of researchers
and practitioners
Knowledge and lessons-
learned from community case
studies
Google Satellite Imagery
9
Federal Guidelines – Framework
Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment for Risk-Based Analysis
Preliminary
Identification of
Objectives,
Scenarios, and
Hazards
Data Collection
Hazard
Assessment
Communicating
Results
Flood Risk
Assessment
Community and Partner Engagement
10
Flood Risk Assessment
Open
● Open Data
● Open Tools
● Collaborative
● Accessible
Standard
● Common Approach
● Scaleable
● Collaborative
● Aligns with Federal
Flood RIsk
Assessment
Guideline
Adaptable
● Ease of use
● Risk and event
based assessments
● Build on modules
● Libraries for hazard,
exposure, and
vulnerability
https://github.com/NRCan/CanFlood
Download app in
QGIS as a plugin
Manual and Tutorials
11
Federal Guidelines – Community and Partner Engagement
Community and Partner Engagement
Preliminary Identification of
Objectives, Scenarios, and
Hazards
Data Collection Hazard Assessment Communicating Results
Bridge between communities and
project staff
Stronger projects and stronger
communities
Principles for engagement
12
Federal Guidelines – Objectives, Scenarios, and Hazards
Community and Partner Engagement
Preliminary Identification of
Objectives, Scenarios, and
Hazards
Data Collection Hazard Assessment Communicating Results
Objective?
Appropriate
level of
analysis?
Hazard
sources?
Hazard
scenarios?
Knowledge
and
information
gaps?
Scope
13
Federal Guidelines – Data Collection
Purpose: identifying and acquiring data to be incorporated into coastal flood
hazard assessment.
Key Topics:
• Elevations (bathymetry and topography)
• Hazard sources (water levels, tsunami, waves)
• Buildings, infrastructure, and flood defences
• Climate change and relative sea-level rise
Regional Data Products:
• BC Lower Mainland DEM
• Regional hazard modelling results
• Tsunami hazard sources
Community and Partner Engagement
Preliminary Identification of
Objectives, Scenarios, and
Hazards
Data Collection Hazard Assessment Communicating Results
Google Satellite Imagery
14
Federal Guidelines – Hazard Assessment
Purpose: establish coastal flood hazard scenarios and
model coastal flood events
Key Topics:
• Establishing hazard scenarios and likelihoods
• Model development (e.g. model domain, spatial/temporal resolution, model
forcing, calibration and validation)
• Incorporating climate change and relative sea-level rise
Community and Partner Engagement
Preliminary Identification of
Objectives, Scenarios, and
Hazards
Data Collection Hazard Assessment Communicating Results
Google Satellite Imagery
15
Federal Guidelines – Communicating Results
Community and Partner Engagement
Preliminary Identification of
Objectives, Scenarios, and
Hazards
Data Collection Hazard Assessment Communicating Results
16
Federal Guidelines – Next Steps
Draft guideline
Fall 2021
Guideline review
via expert
committee
Final bilingual
guideline Spring
2022
17
Boundary Bay Case Study
Coastal Flood Hazard and
Risk Assessment for the
Boundary Bay Area and
Semiahmoo First Nation
Google Satellite Imagery
Google Satellite Imagery
Paul Gadbois
18
Semiahmoo First Nation – Study Location
Boundary
Bay
19
Boundary Bay - Indigenous and Scientific Knowledge
“Indigenous
people’s terrifying
tsunami stories are
a history and a
warning.”
- Ann Finkbeiner
Nuu-chah-nulth artist Tim Paul
20
Boundary Bay – Data Collection
Topo-Bathy DEM
• Collection and merger of many datasets
• International considerations
• Vertical datum adjustment
• DEM workshops with multiple stakeholders
21
Boundary Bay – Hazard Assessment
Effect of global sea level rise on Boundary
Bay area
• Conclusions:
• Storm surge flooding will impact
communities if not mitigated
• Significant parts of the region are
below high tide level & protected by
sea dikes which flood as sea levels
rise.
• Storm surge amplitudes are higher in
shallow areas such as Boundary Bay
• Models align well with actual events
Photo: Paul Gadbois
Storm Surge Modelling
Dec 2018 Storm
22
Boundary Bay – Hazard Assessment
Meteo
Landslide
Local Earthquake – Cascadia 1700
• Buried rupture
• Splay fault
Distant Earthquake - Alaska 1964
• Historical event
Shallow crustal Earthquakes
• Sandy Bay fault
• Birch Bay fault
• Skip Jack Fault
Tsunami Scenarios
23
Boundary Bay – Hazard Assessment
Max wave heights for various
disturbances
Max wave heights for disturbance
at 35m/s
Max current speeds for
disturbance at 35m/s
Meteotsunami - November 1st 2010 Event
24
Boundary Bay – Hazard Assessment
Research by: Fatemeh Nematii, UVictoria
Landslide Generated Tsunamis Orcas Island max height at t=120min
25
Boundary Bay – Cascadia Tsunami, no SLR
26
Boundary Bay – Cascadia Tsunami, SLR
0.5m SLR 1.0 m SLR 2.0 m SLR
27
Boundary Bay – Alaskan 1964 Tsunami
Seafloor Displacement Max Wave Height
Max Wave Height Max Wave Height
28
Boundary Bay - Shallow Crustal Faults
Boundary
Bay
CANADA
U.S.
Skipjack Island fault
zone
Birch Bay Fault Sandy Point Fault
Skip Jack Fault
29
Boundary Bay – Risk Assessment
Building Performance: Damage,
Recovery Time, Disaster Debris
Public Safety: Services, Shelter Needs
Entrapment, Critical Injuries, Emergency
Social Disruption: Household Displacement, Business Interruption
Economic Security: Direct Impact Losses,
Cascading Indirect Losses
Housing Conditions:
Tenancy, Quality & suitability of Housing
Individual Autonomy:
Age, education, mobility
Social Connections:
Support networks, Race and Linguistic Barriers
Financial Agency:
Income, Employment Status, Shelter Costs
DRR-Pathways - Integrated Risk Assessment
Lifeline Services: Water, power,
communication, transportation and business
functions required for recovery
RECOVERY
Strain on Social Fabric Impacts to Built Environment
Image Credit – Murray Journeay
Distant Source
tsunami
Local Source
tsunami
All tsunami
Sources
Inundation Maps (Oregon – DOGAMI)
Boundary Bay – Risk Communication
31
Acadian Peninsula Case Study
Coastal Flood Hazard and
Risk Assessment for the
Acadian Peninsula Region
of New Brunswick
D. Bérubé & M. Desrosiers
Google Satellite Imagery
Google Satellite Imagery
32
Acadian Peninsula – Community Workshop and Site Visit
Community Workshop
Sainte-Marie – Saint-Raphäel, NB
Lamèque, NB
Community Workshop – Valorēs, Shippagan, NB
 Learn about coastal flooding concerns
 Identify information needs
 Shape project scope
Discussion with local researchers regarding coastal threats,
concerns, and perspectives
 Storm surge flooding and sea-level rise
 Waves
 Coastal morphology and erosion (dunes and cliffs)
 Existing mitigation measures
Site Visits - Coastal communities
33
Acadian Peninsula– Community Workshop and Site Visit
What we asked
• Are there any sources of data that can be used to support
model calibration/validation?
• What local contexts should be considered?
• What kind of information do your communities need to
support planning and decision making?
What we learned
• Existing quantitative and qualitative flood observation data available
from local research initiatives build upon this work
• Saltwater intrusion on peat land can disrupt this industry
• Dunes and reliefs are vulnerable to wave actions
• Port infrastructure (economically important)
• Fish processing plant & wharf are at risk of flooding
• Impacts on property values and insurance premiums
• Continue public consultation on the project
• Simulate scenarios to propose to municipalities
• Information about the effect of flood protection structures
• Regular reviews of the models used for mapping
Community Workshop:
A. Robichaud
34
Acadian Peninsula – Background and Study Location
Acadian Peninsula, New
Brunswick
• NE New Brunswick
• Industry
• Fishing, agriculture, peat moss
Coastal Flood Hazards and
Risks
• Storm surge flooding & coastal erosion
• Exacerbated by wave action, sea-
level rise, & depletion of sea ice
• Damage to assets & infrastructure
• Houses, roads, wharfs, etc.
Maisonnette (495)
Caraquet & Bas
Caraquet (5,553) Lamèque (1,285)
Shippagan &
Pointe-Brûlée
(2,801)
Le Goulet (793)
Community (population)
Image Landsat / Copernicus
Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy, NGA, GEBCO
Google Satellite Imagery
Image © 2021 CNES /Airbus
Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy, NGA, GEBCO
Google Satellite Imagery
New
Brunswick
35
Acadian Peninsula – Data Collection
Community-Scale Model Development
• Elevation data:
• Bathymetry: Best-available bathymetry from
CHS
• Topography: 1m-resolution hydro-enforced
DEM and LiDAR point data
• Roughness based on land cover data
• Boundary conditions based on regional-scale
model output
• Winds and atmospheric pressure forcing from
ERA5 reanalysis dataset
• Resolution of 10m near communities of interest
Regional-scale model
Community-scale model
36
Acadian Peninsula – Hazard Modelling
Nested Model Approach:
Regional-Scale / Coarse Resolution
• Simulate generation and evolution of storm
surges on the Atlantic continental shelf
Community-Scale / Fine Resolution
• Simulate inundation with sufficient resolution to
support assessment of damages and
consequences caused by flooding
37
Acadian Peninsula – Regional-Scale Model
Regional-Scale Model Development
• Developed using TELEMAC-2D
• Forced by synoptic-scale wind and atmospheric pressure fields from ERA5 global reanalysis dataset
• Resolution ranging from 30km (along boundary) to 200m near the Acadian Peninsula
• Calibrated by adjusting wind drag and bed friction parameters
• Possible to incorporate impacts of sea-ice via adjustment of wind drag
Hurricane Dorian – September 2019
38
Acadian Peninsula – Community-Scale Model Calibration
• Calibration was conducted using surveyed
debris observations (sea-wrack) provided by
Government of New Brunswick
• Indicate peak water elevation and
maximum flood extent
• Field survey data available for two events
• Additional validation based on photographic
and video evidence
50m
D. Bérubé & M. Desrosiers
39
Acadian Peninsula – Flood Scenarios
Storm surge events primarily driven by:
• Extratropical winter storms
• Post-tropical cyclones
Statistical methods were used to estimate extreme
water levels and likelihoods (Annual Exceedance
Probability – AEP) based on data from the Belledune
tide gauge
• Peak-over-threshold (POT) extreme value
analysis of
• Surges
• Water Levels
• Joint-probability of surges and tides
• Values from literature
AEP Return Period
Storm Surge
(m)
Water Level
(m MWL)
50% 2-yr 0.95 1.82
20% 5-yr 1.10 1.97
10% 10-yr 1.23 2.10
5% 20-yr 1.36 2.23
2% 50-yr 1.56 2.48
1% 100-yr 1.73 2.69
40
Acadian Peninsula – Flood Scenarios, Sea-Level Rise
The six storm surge scenarios were modelled
under current day conditions, as well as three
sea-level rise conditions, adjusted for vertical land
movement:
20% AEP (5-year) Storm Surge Flood Event
0.5m Global Sea-Level Rise 1.0m Global Sea-Level Rise 2.0m Global Sea-Level Rise
Current Day
200m
N
Image © 2021 CNES / Airbus
Google Satellite Imagery
41
Acadian Peninsula – Risk Assessment
The results from the flood hazard modelling will be used to support risk assessment
• What types of assets and infrastructure are exposed to flood water?
• How much damage is incurred?
ELEMENTS/IMPACTS
EXPOSURE
(location and number of
element exposed to
flooding)
VULNERABILITY
(level of damage and
monetary cost)
SOCIAL
Total population ✔
Vulnerable population ✔
Schools ✔
Senior and disabilities care
facilities
✔
BUILT ENVIRONMENT
Residential buildings ✔ ✔
Commercial & Industrial
buildings
✔ ✔
Public/recreational buildings ✔
Segments of roads ✔
Electric power assets ✔
NATURAL ENVIRONMENT
National parks and protected
areas
✔
Agricultural land ✔
Flood debris (tons) ✔
Flood hazard modelling results are integrated with
assets inventory and damage functions to estimate
annualized damages
• CanFlood – Flood risk modelling toolbox (QGIS)
42
Acadian Peninsula – Conclusions and Next Steps
Next Steps
• Complete risk assessment tasks to estimate damages
and consequences based on modelled flood hazard
• Communicate findings with community members and
representatives
• Explore avenues to support decision making and
integrate with existing tools and systems
• Integrate findings and lessons-learned from the case
study work into the federal guideline document
43
Tuktoyaktuk Case Study
Coastal Flood Hazard and
Risk Assessment for
Tuktoyaktuk
44
Tuktoyaktuk – Study Location
Inuvik
Tuktoyaktuk
Beaufort
Sea
Tuktoyaktuk
45
Tuktoyaktuk – Community Engagement
Consultation with the Elders of Tuktoyaktuk,
March 29th, 2021
“Every summer it is getting worse weather
with more wind than ever. On the north
side, every year, they try to put some
protection on the coastline, but it does not
work as the winds are too strong.
46
Tuktoyaktuk - Challenges
Effect of sea ice on storm
surges
Left image: Damon, A., & Laine, B. (2019). Arctic melt: The threat beneath the ice. CNN.
Non-conventional high water
marks (Driftwood)
47
Tuktoyaktuk – Regional Model
July 2019 Storm Event August 2013 Storm Event
August 2018 Storm Event
Regional Model
CSSP Update March 18th, 2021
48
Tuktoyaktuk – Community Scale Model
100 year return period event
Scenarios under
consideration:
• 100 year
• 50 year
• 20 year
• 10 year
• 5 year
• All at present-day, 0.5m,
1m, 2m global SLR.
Flood Simulation for July 21st,
2019
Flooding Extents
A
B
Tuktoyaktuk - Outputs
50
Questions
• Do you see the guidelines being useful for your
purposes? (yes – very, yes – somewhat, not at all)
• Have you carried out a coastal flood hazard or risk
assessment in your community? (yes, no, hope to)
• In what areas did you face challenges with your
hazard or risk assessment? (topographic data,
hazard data, climate change data, lack of guidance,
scenario selection, community involvement, other)
51
Thank you
Fisheries and Oceans Peches et Oceans
Canada Canada
To express interest
in the guideline review
committee, email
nicky.hastings@nrcan-
rncan.gc.ca

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ICLR Friday Forum: Coastal flood risk assessments (September 24, 2021)

  • 1. Coastal Flood Mitigation Canada: Promoting Evidence-based Approaches to Coastal Flood Risk Assessment Institute of Catatstrophic Loss Reduction Webinar 2021-09-24 Hamlet of Tuktoyaktuk, NWT
  • 2. 2 Presentation Outline 1. Project Overview 2. Guidelines 3. Boundary Bay Case Study 4. Acadian Peninsula Case Study 5. Tuktoyaktuk Case Study 6. Q&A
  • 3. Kelin Wang Natural Resources Canada Tom James Natural Resources Canada Gwyn Lintern Natural Resources Canada Gavin Manson Natural Resources Canada Carol Wagner Natural Resources Canada Brent Baron Indigenous Services Canada Jesal Shah Emergency Management BC Lucina Leonard University of Victoria Reza Amouzgar Ocean Networks Canada Sean Mullen Ocean Networks Canada Richard Thomson Fisheries and Oceans Canada Teron Moore Ocean Networks Canada Mark Rankin Ocean Networks Canada Nicky Hastings Natural Resources Canada Jackie Yip Natural Resources Canada Julie Van de Valk Natural Resources Canada Mike Ellerbeck Natural Resources Canada Enda Murphy National Research Council Canada Sean Ferguson National Research Council Canada Joseph Kim National Research Council Canada Fisheries and Oceans Peches et Oceans Canada Canada Research Team Core Team
  • 4. 4 Project Overview FUNDING $1.5 million from Defence Research Development Canada $1.4 million co-invest in-kind Total $2.9 million over 3 years Jan 2019 to Jan 2022 GOAL Develop and demonstrate best practices and tools in coastal flood risk assessment to help coastal communities better understand and manage flood risk from storm surge, tsunami and sea-level rise. RESEARCH PARTNERS Natural Resources Canada (lead) National Research Council Department of Fisheries and Oceans Ocean Networks Canada Emergency Management British Columbia Indigenous Services Canada University of Victoria
  • 5. 5 Project Outcomes Google Satellite Imagery Tuktoyaktuk, NWT Boundary Bay, BC Acadian Peninsula, NB Three Community-level Flood Risk Assessments Informs Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment Guideline Generates new hazard data Develop and demonstrate flood damage modeling tools Informs local risk reduction planning and decision-making
  • 6. 6 Federal Flood Mapping Guideline Series Federal Flood Mapping Framework Federal Hazard ID & Priority Setting Case Studies on CC in Floodplain Mapping vol1 Federal H&H Procedures (River) Federal Coastal Hazard Guidelines Federal Geomatics Guidelines Federal Flood Risk Assessment Federal Flood Damage Estimation Guideline Federal Land Use Guide Bibliographies of Best Practices & References Published In Progress
  • 7. 7 Federal Guidelines – Coastal Flood Hazards  Procedural guidance to identify & apply coastal flood hazard assessment methods, consistent with best-practices  A Risk Based Approach  With guidance on current & future flood hazards PURPOSE TARGET AUDIENCE  Technical content targeted towards Canadian practitioners tasked with conducting coastal flood hazard assessment  Reference information for community representatives and decision makers
  • 8. 8 Federal Guidelines – Background and Introduction The federal guidelines are being developed as a collaborative effort amongst project partners and are informed by the outcomes of the three case studies Boundary Bay, BC (Pacific) Tuktoyaktuk, NWT (Arctic) Acadian Peninsula, NB (Atlantic) Local Experts and Community Representatives Project Research Team Partnerships to support community flood risk assessment Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment Guidelines for Risk-Based Analysis Coastal Flood Risk Assessment Case Studies Knowledge and expertise from a diverse group of researchers and practitioners Knowledge and lessons- learned from community case studies Google Satellite Imagery
  • 9. 9 Federal Guidelines – Framework Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment for Risk-Based Analysis Preliminary Identification of Objectives, Scenarios, and Hazards Data Collection Hazard Assessment Communicating Results Flood Risk Assessment Community and Partner Engagement
  • 10. 10 Flood Risk Assessment Open ● Open Data ● Open Tools ● Collaborative ● Accessible Standard ● Common Approach ● Scaleable ● Collaborative ● Aligns with Federal Flood RIsk Assessment Guideline Adaptable ● Ease of use ● Risk and event based assessments ● Build on modules ● Libraries for hazard, exposure, and vulnerability https://github.com/NRCan/CanFlood Download app in QGIS as a plugin Manual and Tutorials
  • 11. 11 Federal Guidelines – Community and Partner Engagement Community and Partner Engagement Preliminary Identification of Objectives, Scenarios, and Hazards Data Collection Hazard Assessment Communicating Results Bridge between communities and project staff Stronger projects and stronger communities Principles for engagement
  • 12. 12 Federal Guidelines – Objectives, Scenarios, and Hazards Community and Partner Engagement Preliminary Identification of Objectives, Scenarios, and Hazards Data Collection Hazard Assessment Communicating Results Objective? Appropriate level of analysis? Hazard sources? Hazard scenarios? Knowledge and information gaps? Scope
  • 13. 13 Federal Guidelines – Data Collection Purpose: identifying and acquiring data to be incorporated into coastal flood hazard assessment. Key Topics: • Elevations (bathymetry and topography) • Hazard sources (water levels, tsunami, waves) • Buildings, infrastructure, and flood defences • Climate change and relative sea-level rise Regional Data Products: • BC Lower Mainland DEM • Regional hazard modelling results • Tsunami hazard sources Community and Partner Engagement Preliminary Identification of Objectives, Scenarios, and Hazards Data Collection Hazard Assessment Communicating Results Google Satellite Imagery
  • 14. 14 Federal Guidelines – Hazard Assessment Purpose: establish coastal flood hazard scenarios and model coastal flood events Key Topics: • Establishing hazard scenarios and likelihoods • Model development (e.g. model domain, spatial/temporal resolution, model forcing, calibration and validation) • Incorporating climate change and relative sea-level rise Community and Partner Engagement Preliminary Identification of Objectives, Scenarios, and Hazards Data Collection Hazard Assessment Communicating Results Google Satellite Imagery
  • 15. 15 Federal Guidelines – Communicating Results Community and Partner Engagement Preliminary Identification of Objectives, Scenarios, and Hazards Data Collection Hazard Assessment Communicating Results
  • 16. 16 Federal Guidelines – Next Steps Draft guideline Fall 2021 Guideline review via expert committee Final bilingual guideline Spring 2022
  • 17. 17 Boundary Bay Case Study Coastal Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment for the Boundary Bay Area and Semiahmoo First Nation Google Satellite Imagery Google Satellite Imagery Paul Gadbois
  • 18. 18 Semiahmoo First Nation – Study Location Boundary Bay
  • 19. 19 Boundary Bay - Indigenous and Scientific Knowledge “Indigenous people’s terrifying tsunami stories are a history and a warning.” - Ann Finkbeiner Nuu-chah-nulth artist Tim Paul
  • 20. 20 Boundary Bay – Data Collection Topo-Bathy DEM • Collection and merger of many datasets • International considerations • Vertical datum adjustment • DEM workshops with multiple stakeholders
  • 21. 21 Boundary Bay – Hazard Assessment Effect of global sea level rise on Boundary Bay area • Conclusions: • Storm surge flooding will impact communities if not mitigated • Significant parts of the region are below high tide level & protected by sea dikes which flood as sea levels rise. • Storm surge amplitudes are higher in shallow areas such as Boundary Bay • Models align well with actual events Photo: Paul Gadbois Storm Surge Modelling Dec 2018 Storm
  • 22. 22 Boundary Bay – Hazard Assessment Meteo Landslide Local Earthquake – Cascadia 1700 • Buried rupture • Splay fault Distant Earthquake - Alaska 1964 • Historical event Shallow crustal Earthquakes • Sandy Bay fault • Birch Bay fault • Skip Jack Fault Tsunami Scenarios
  • 23. 23 Boundary Bay – Hazard Assessment Max wave heights for various disturbances Max wave heights for disturbance at 35m/s Max current speeds for disturbance at 35m/s Meteotsunami - November 1st 2010 Event
  • 24. 24 Boundary Bay – Hazard Assessment Research by: Fatemeh Nematii, UVictoria Landslide Generated Tsunamis Orcas Island max height at t=120min
  • 25. 25 Boundary Bay – Cascadia Tsunami, no SLR
  • 26. 26 Boundary Bay – Cascadia Tsunami, SLR 0.5m SLR 1.0 m SLR 2.0 m SLR
  • 27. 27 Boundary Bay – Alaskan 1964 Tsunami Seafloor Displacement Max Wave Height Max Wave Height Max Wave Height
  • 28. 28 Boundary Bay - Shallow Crustal Faults Boundary Bay CANADA U.S. Skipjack Island fault zone Birch Bay Fault Sandy Point Fault Skip Jack Fault
  • 29. 29 Boundary Bay – Risk Assessment Building Performance: Damage, Recovery Time, Disaster Debris Public Safety: Services, Shelter Needs Entrapment, Critical Injuries, Emergency Social Disruption: Household Displacement, Business Interruption Economic Security: Direct Impact Losses, Cascading Indirect Losses Housing Conditions: Tenancy, Quality & suitability of Housing Individual Autonomy: Age, education, mobility Social Connections: Support networks, Race and Linguistic Barriers Financial Agency: Income, Employment Status, Shelter Costs DRR-Pathways - Integrated Risk Assessment Lifeline Services: Water, power, communication, transportation and business functions required for recovery RECOVERY Strain on Social Fabric Impacts to Built Environment Image Credit – Murray Journeay
  • 30. Distant Source tsunami Local Source tsunami All tsunami Sources Inundation Maps (Oregon – DOGAMI) Boundary Bay – Risk Communication
  • 31. 31 Acadian Peninsula Case Study Coastal Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment for the Acadian Peninsula Region of New Brunswick D. Bérubé & M. Desrosiers Google Satellite Imagery Google Satellite Imagery
  • 32. 32 Acadian Peninsula – Community Workshop and Site Visit Community Workshop Sainte-Marie – Saint-Raphäel, NB Lamèque, NB Community Workshop – Valorēs, Shippagan, NB  Learn about coastal flooding concerns  Identify information needs  Shape project scope Discussion with local researchers regarding coastal threats, concerns, and perspectives  Storm surge flooding and sea-level rise  Waves  Coastal morphology and erosion (dunes and cliffs)  Existing mitigation measures Site Visits - Coastal communities
  • 33. 33 Acadian Peninsula– Community Workshop and Site Visit What we asked • Are there any sources of data that can be used to support model calibration/validation? • What local contexts should be considered? • What kind of information do your communities need to support planning and decision making? What we learned • Existing quantitative and qualitative flood observation data available from local research initiatives build upon this work • Saltwater intrusion on peat land can disrupt this industry • Dunes and reliefs are vulnerable to wave actions • Port infrastructure (economically important) • Fish processing plant & wharf are at risk of flooding • Impacts on property values and insurance premiums • Continue public consultation on the project • Simulate scenarios to propose to municipalities • Information about the effect of flood protection structures • Regular reviews of the models used for mapping Community Workshop: A. Robichaud
  • 34. 34 Acadian Peninsula – Background and Study Location Acadian Peninsula, New Brunswick • NE New Brunswick • Industry • Fishing, agriculture, peat moss Coastal Flood Hazards and Risks • Storm surge flooding & coastal erosion • Exacerbated by wave action, sea- level rise, & depletion of sea ice • Damage to assets & infrastructure • Houses, roads, wharfs, etc. Maisonnette (495) Caraquet & Bas Caraquet (5,553) Lamèque (1,285) Shippagan & Pointe-Brûlée (2,801) Le Goulet (793) Community (population) Image Landsat / Copernicus Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy, NGA, GEBCO Google Satellite Imagery Image © 2021 CNES /Airbus Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy, NGA, GEBCO Google Satellite Imagery New Brunswick
  • 35. 35 Acadian Peninsula – Data Collection Community-Scale Model Development • Elevation data: • Bathymetry: Best-available bathymetry from CHS • Topography: 1m-resolution hydro-enforced DEM and LiDAR point data • Roughness based on land cover data • Boundary conditions based on regional-scale model output • Winds and atmospheric pressure forcing from ERA5 reanalysis dataset • Resolution of 10m near communities of interest Regional-scale model Community-scale model
  • 36. 36 Acadian Peninsula – Hazard Modelling Nested Model Approach: Regional-Scale / Coarse Resolution • Simulate generation and evolution of storm surges on the Atlantic continental shelf Community-Scale / Fine Resolution • Simulate inundation with sufficient resolution to support assessment of damages and consequences caused by flooding
  • 37. 37 Acadian Peninsula – Regional-Scale Model Regional-Scale Model Development • Developed using TELEMAC-2D • Forced by synoptic-scale wind and atmospheric pressure fields from ERA5 global reanalysis dataset • Resolution ranging from 30km (along boundary) to 200m near the Acadian Peninsula • Calibrated by adjusting wind drag and bed friction parameters • Possible to incorporate impacts of sea-ice via adjustment of wind drag Hurricane Dorian – September 2019
  • 38. 38 Acadian Peninsula – Community-Scale Model Calibration • Calibration was conducted using surveyed debris observations (sea-wrack) provided by Government of New Brunswick • Indicate peak water elevation and maximum flood extent • Field survey data available for two events • Additional validation based on photographic and video evidence 50m D. Bérubé & M. Desrosiers
  • 39. 39 Acadian Peninsula – Flood Scenarios Storm surge events primarily driven by: • Extratropical winter storms • Post-tropical cyclones Statistical methods were used to estimate extreme water levels and likelihoods (Annual Exceedance Probability – AEP) based on data from the Belledune tide gauge • Peak-over-threshold (POT) extreme value analysis of • Surges • Water Levels • Joint-probability of surges and tides • Values from literature AEP Return Period Storm Surge (m) Water Level (m MWL) 50% 2-yr 0.95 1.82 20% 5-yr 1.10 1.97 10% 10-yr 1.23 2.10 5% 20-yr 1.36 2.23 2% 50-yr 1.56 2.48 1% 100-yr 1.73 2.69
  • 40. 40 Acadian Peninsula – Flood Scenarios, Sea-Level Rise The six storm surge scenarios were modelled under current day conditions, as well as three sea-level rise conditions, adjusted for vertical land movement: 20% AEP (5-year) Storm Surge Flood Event 0.5m Global Sea-Level Rise 1.0m Global Sea-Level Rise 2.0m Global Sea-Level Rise Current Day 200m N Image © 2021 CNES / Airbus Google Satellite Imagery
  • 41. 41 Acadian Peninsula – Risk Assessment The results from the flood hazard modelling will be used to support risk assessment • What types of assets and infrastructure are exposed to flood water? • How much damage is incurred? ELEMENTS/IMPACTS EXPOSURE (location and number of element exposed to flooding) VULNERABILITY (level of damage and monetary cost) SOCIAL Total population ✔ Vulnerable population ✔ Schools ✔ Senior and disabilities care facilities ✔ BUILT ENVIRONMENT Residential buildings ✔ ✔ Commercial & Industrial buildings ✔ ✔ Public/recreational buildings ✔ Segments of roads ✔ Electric power assets ✔ NATURAL ENVIRONMENT National parks and protected areas ✔ Agricultural land ✔ Flood debris (tons) ✔ Flood hazard modelling results are integrated with assets inventory and damage functions to estimate annualized damages • CanFlood – Flood risk modelling toolbox (QGIS)
  • 42. 42 Acadian Peninsula – Conclusions and Next Steps Next Steps • Complete risk assessment tasks to estimate damages and consequences based on modelled flood hazard • Communicate findings with community members and representatives • Explore avenues to support decision making and integrate with existing tools and systems • Integrate findings and lessons-learned from the case study work into the federal guideline document
  • 43. 43 Tuktoyaktuk Case Study Coastal Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment for Tuktoyaktuk
  • 44. 44 Tuktoyaktuk – Study Location Inuvik Tuktoyaktuk Beaufort Sea Tuktoyaktuk
  • 45. 45 Tuktoyaktuk – Community Engagement Consultation with the Elders of Tuktoyaktuk, March 29th, 2021 “Every summer it is getting worse weather with more wind than ever. On the north side, every year, they try to put some protection on the coastline, but it does not work as the winds are too strong.
  • 46. 46 Tuktoyaktuk - Challenges Effect of sea ice on storm surges Left image: Damon, A., & Laine, B. (2019). Arctic melt: The threat beneath the ice. CNN. Non-conventional high water marks (Driftwood)
  • 47. 47 Tuktoyaktuk – Regional Model July 2019 Storm Event August 2013 Storm Event August 2018 Storm Event Regional Model
  • 48. CSSP Update March 18th, 2021 48 Tuktoyaktuk – Community Scale Model 100 year return period event Scenarios under consideration: • 100 year • 50 year • 20 year • 10 year • 5 year • All at present-day, 0.5m, 1m, 2m global SLR. Flood Simulation for July 21st, 2019 Flooding Extents A B
  • 50. 50 Questions • Do you see the guidelines being useful for your purposes? (yes – very, yes – somewhat, not at all) • Have you carried out a coastal flood hazard or risk assessment in your community? (yes, no, hope to) • In what areas did you face challenges with your hazard or risk assessment? (topographic data, hazard data, climate change data, lack of guidance, scenario selection, community involvement, other)
  • 51. 51 Thank you Fisheries and Oceans Peches et Oceans Canada Canada To express interest in the guideline review committee, email nicky.hastings@nrcan- rncan.gc.ca