DAMMED IF YOU DO, DAMNED IF YOU DON'T: Global sea level rise and the consequences for the built environment In light of the impacts of recent natural disasters, including the cases of Hurricane Katrina and Andrew, the need is evident for a proactive and transparent Engineering Policy approach to protect the coastal built environment. This response is especially critical considering climate change and the potential for global rise in mean sea level accompanied by increases in storm intensity and frequency. This talk presents our simulation of the design and construction response required to protect the world's major ports from a significant rise in mean sea level. This simulation was developed through engineering design, GIS (Geographical Information System) Science, hydrologic modeling, and time scheduling based on a comparison of the project requirements to the current industry capacity. While our preliminary results show that the cost of protecting only the 177 most significant ports in terms of economic value (amongst nearly 3,000 major ports total) will be significant, our analysis also shows that the most troubling aspect of an engineering and construction response to sea level rise is the requirement for materials. This will cause dramatic shortages in sand, gravel and other materials, which will ripple through the entire construction industry.

1. GLOBAL SEA LEVEL RISE AND THE CONSEQUENCES FOR THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT 5 JUNE 2008 PROFESSORS MARTIN FISCHER AND BEN SCHWEGLER NATHAN CHASE, VIVIEN CHUA, DAVID NEWELL Dammed if You Do, Damned if You Don’t Inundated areas resulting from 2m SLR http://flood.firetree.net/

2. Introduction

3. How we got here… “ With a little research and advice from the professors, putting together a basic dike design was fairly straightforward… after that, I was hooked! Countless hours later, the design process continues…” – Nathan Chase

6. Background and Need

8. Sea Level Rise – Fact or Fiction? Model does not include “future dynamical changes in ice flow”

10. Cyclone Nargis

11. Project Overview

16. Port Selection 1 Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU) is one 20-ft container (one 40-ft container = 2 TEUs)

18. Current Status

24. Case study: San Francisco Bay

25. 1 meter sea level rise predicted by 2100!!! Sea level record at Golden Gate

27. Sacramento-San Joaquin delta Golden Gate channel Calibration at NOAA station Golden Gate (9414290)

30. Erosion of salt ponds & submerging tidal marshes Average depth of tidal marshes and salt ponds = 0.1 m 1 m sea level rise

33. Results

35. Measuring our Results

44. Future Directions

48. Questions?