The document discusses the potential impact of rising CO2 levels on global climate, specifically how it may lead to cooler conditions despite overall warming trends. It highlights historical evidence of cooling events linked to freshwater influx from melting ice sheets, and uses climate models to illustrate how ocean temperatures may shift, causing disruptions in global currents. The conclusions suggest that current data indicates a risk of climate shift due to melting ice, although limitations in model predictions and data availability complicate the findings.

1. Team ICE
Josh Mullis, Russ Santos,
Emily Stransky, Ryan Hejduk
http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/files/imagecache/feature/files/features/print/20090528_snowball_earth.jpg

2. Question For Research
How will the continued trend in rising CO2
levels
impact temperature and cause climate to go from
warm to cold conditions?

3. Expectations
● NASA - "A Chilling Possibility"
○ thawing of ice could disturb or halt large currents
■ fresher, more buoyant water would not sink
■ water would not travel down to the tropics
○ dropping temperatures by 5 to 10 degrees C
○ similar to averages at the end of the last ice age
NASA, 2004. A Chilling Possibility. Science@NASA Headline
News. Accessed via Internet, 10 May 2012: http://science.nasa.
gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/05mar_arctic.

4. Expectations
Past Evidence
"How Global Warming Can Chill the Planet"
-LiveScience
● ~8,200 years ago, 100 year cooling
trend by 10.8 deg. C
● Water from Minnesota/Canada ice sheet
broke out from Lake Agassiz
● Caused less than a 4 ft rise in sea level
● No lakes like this now, but sensitive
Greenland ice sheet (Tornqvist et al.
2004)
Davidson, S., 2004. How Global Warming Can Chill the Planet. Live Science. Accessed via Internet, 10 May
2012: http://www.livescience.com/3751-global-warming-chill-planet.html.

5. Parameters
Models Used:
● Ice Age, Last Glacial Maximum
● Global Warming with Enabled CO2 trend
Parameters of Importance:
● Annual Snow and Ice Coverage
● Annual Surface Albedo
● Ocean Mixed-Layer Temperature (SST)
● Deep Ocean Diffusion

6. Results: Air Surface Temperature

7. Results: Snow and Ice Coverage

8. Results: Ground Albedo

9. Results: Ocean Mixed-Layer Temperature,LGM

10. Results: Annual Ocean-Mixed Layer Temperature,
Future Climate Model

11. Results: Annual Second Layer Ocean Temperature,
Future Climate Model

12. Analysis of Results
● Doubling of CO2
results in an increase of air surface temperature
● High albedo in LGM due to large amount of ice and snow cover, while
low albedo in Modern Climate model due to ice melting and more land
surface visible
● Annual Ocean Mixed Layer Temperature for LGM had low
temperatures near high and low latitudes and moderately higher
temperatures in the equatorial region
● Annual Ocean Mixed Layer Temperature for future model is very similar
to LGM model throughout the globe
● Annual Ocean Temperature of the second layer agrees with Mixed
Layer model.
○ Cooling around Greenland, warming around equator

13. Speculation
● Increase in CO2 and other GHGs
● Surface temperature increases causing a
warmer climate
● Hydrologic cycle is enhanced while
glaciers and ice caps melt
● More freshwater enters oceans shutting
down the AMO
● Circulation of cold and warm waters halts
● Cooling increases and glaciers slowly
grows leading to the next Ice Age
● Results remain consistent with initial aspects of the research
● Cannot determine if the rest of research theory will agree
Weaver, A. and Hillaire-Marcel, C., 2004. Global Warming and the Next Ice Age. Science 304, 400-402.

14. Conclusions
● Ocean Mixed Layer Temperatures for both models are very similar,
showing that the ocean conditions for the LGM and future climate
underwent the same conditions at some point, could lead to colder
temperatures
● With this data alone available, we must infer that there could be a
climate change due to melting of ice into the ocean, until there is
more data to back up the hypothesis
● EdGCM limits the amount of information we can compare
○ Only 100 years of predicted models
○ Not as many parameters available to model

15. Discussion
● Now that you have the information in front of you,
are you convinced that this could actually occur?
○ If so, how quickly or abruptly?
● EdGCM limits deep ocean information
○ Difficult to set up
○ Important information to have for theory

16. References
● Davidson, S., 2004. How Global Warming Can Chill the Planet. Live Science. Accessed
via Internet, 10 May 2012: http://www.livescience.com/3751-global-warming-chill-planet.
html.
● National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2004. A Chilling Possibility: By disturbing a
massive ocean current, melting arctic sea ice might trigger colder weather in Europe and
North America. Science@NASA Headline News. Accessed via Internet, 10 May 2012: http:
//science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/05mar_arctic.
● Weaver, A. and Hillaire-Marcel, C., 2004. Global Warming and the Next Ice Age. Science
304, 400-402. Accessed via Internet, 9 May 2012: http://www.springerlink.
com/content/r916q94v27030858/.
● "A Chilling Possibility." NASA. 2004. Web 10 May 2012 <http://science.nasa.gov/science-
news/science-at-nasa/2004/05mar_arctic/>
● Davidson, Sarah. "How Global Warming Can Chill the Planet." LiveScience. 17 Dec 2004.
Web 10 May 2012. <http://www.livescience.com/3751-global-warming-chill-planet.html>