This document discusses evidence for both global warming and cooling trends. It summarizes IPCC projections that global surface temperatures will likely continue rising in the 21st century due to greenhouse gas emissions. However, it also discusses the 1970s hypothesis of imminent global cooling and increased glaciation. The document introduces topics like the greenhouse effect, thermohaline circulation, glacier surging, and their impacts on climate. It acknowledges the complexity of climatology and notes that while a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation is possible due to warming, its likelihood remains uncertain based on current understanding. The document aims to provide background knowledge on these topics and climate models to facilitate further discussion.
This is just a simple effort of laying a background of slides for new presenters. You can download, edit and present the topic. I hope you find it a bit helpful.
Are ‘little ice ages’ and ‘megadroughts’ possible?
Scientists are investigating whether changes in ocean circu- lation may have played a role in causing or amplifying the “Little Ice Age” between 1300 and 1850. This period of abruptly shift- ing climate regimes and more severe winters had profound agri- cultural, economic, and political impacts in Europe and North America and changed the course of history.
Conclusions
Ocean Mixed Layer Temperatures for both models are very similar, showing that the ocean conditions for the LGM and future climate underwent the same conditions at some point, could lead to colder temperatures
With this data alone available, we must infer that there could be a climate change due to melting of ice into the ocean, until there is more data to back up the hypothesis
EdGCM limits the amount of information we can compare
○ Only 100 years of predicted models
○ Not as many parameters available to model
OSCILLATIONS from ARCTIC WARMING: Record COLD & HOT, RISING SEASPaul H. Carr
WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING.
Record-Cold and Snowfall in New England during 2015 winter.
-Record high sea temps, 11.5 C, put more
water vapor (snow) in the atmosphere.
-Record-Hot West Sees First 100-Degree Temperature of 2015.
- CA 4 yr. drought longest in history.
Wet areas getting wetter: Floods, Snow
Dry areas getting drier: CA Drought, Wildfires.
Rising sea levels are a better measure of global warming than air temperaure.
This is just a simple effort of laying a background of slides for new presenters. You can download, edit and present the topic. I hope you find it a bit helpful.
Are ‘little ice ages’ and ‘megadroughts’ possible?
Scientists are investigating whether changes in ocean circu- lation may have played a role in causing or amplifying the “Little Ice Age” between 1300 and 1850. This period of abruptly shift- ing climate regimes and more severe winters had profound agri- cultural, economic, and political impacts in Europe and North America and changed the course of history.
Conclusions
Ocean Mixed Layer Temperatures for both models are very similar, showing that the ocean conditions for the LGM and future climate underwent the same conditions at some point, could lead to colder temperatures
With this data alone available, we must infer that there could be a climate change due to melting of ice into the ocean, until there is more data to back up the hypothesis
EdGCM limits the amount of information we can compare
○ Only 100 years of predicted models
○ Not as many parameters available to model
OSCILLATIONS from ARCTIC WARMING: Record COLD & HOT, RISING SEASPaul H. Carr
WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING.
Record-Cold and Snowfall in New England during 2015 winter.
-Record high sea temps, 11.5 C, put more
water vapor (snow) in the atmosphere.
-Record-Hot West Sees First 100-Degree Temperature of 2015.
- CA 4 yr. drought longest in history.
Wet areas getting wetter: Floods, Snow
Dry areas getting drier: CA Drought, Wildfires.
Rising sea levels are a better measure of global warming than air temperaure.
Melting Ice: Context, Causes, and Consequences of Polar AmplificationZachary Labe
Profound changes are ongoing at the ends of our planet. Thawing permafrost buried in ancient soils, melting lake and river ice-cover, thinning sea ice, and dwindling mountain glaciers are just a few indicators of climate change within the Arctic. Further, billions of tons of ice are now lost per year from the Greenland Ice Sheet, leaving our coastlines increasingly vulnerable to sea level rise. ‘Polar amplification’ refers to enhanced climate changes in the high latitudes compared to the rest of the globe in response to an external forcing. In the Arctic, air temperatures are rising at more than twice the rate of the global average. While changes in the Antarctic have been slower than the Arctic, the Antarctic ice sheets store enough freshwater to increase global sea levels by 58 m. Thus, Antarctica is often considered our sleeping giant.
Despite robust evidence of polar amplification in the past and present-day, the largest spread in future climate model projections is found in the Arctic and Antarctic. Moreover, quantifying the positive feedbacks contributing to polar amplification remains quite challenging. These large uncertainties are critical for understanding the impacts of future changes to ocean biogeochemistry and circulation, global sea level rise, and mid-latitude climate extremes and variability. This talk will provide an overview of polar amplification using present-day observational evidence and climate models simulations through the late 21st century. In particular, how do we separate the signal and noise in polar climate change and make evidence-based predictions in a warming world?
Summary of key findings of "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report" by Matt Collins, University of Exeter, UK
SICCME open session, 17 September 2014, ICES Annual Science Conference, A Coruña, Spain
The Earth’s climate is dynamic and characterised by trends, aberrations and quasi-periodic oscillations varying over a broad range of time-scales [1], which are governed by external (extraterrestrial systems) and/or internal(ocean, atmosphere and land system). Trends are largely controlled by plate tectonics, and thus to change gradually on million year time scale. Aberrations occur when the certain thresholds are passed and are manifested in the geological record as the unusual rapid (less than a few thousands of years) or extreme change in climate. The quasi-periodic oscillations are mostly astronomically paced; they are driven by astronomical perturbations that affect the earth’s orbit around the sun and the orientation of earth’s rotation axis with respect to its orbital plane. These perturbations are described by the three main astronomical cycles: eccentricity, precession and obliquity, which together determine the spatial and seasonal pattern of insolation received by the earth [2], eventually resulting in climatic oscillations of ten to hundreds of thousands of year [3].Sun being the main source of energy for the earth system controls the climate of it. Variation in solar activity and cosmic ray intensity has direct influence over climatic features such as cloudiness, temperature and rainfall [4]. Volcanic eruptions also force all elements of the climatic systems up to a varying degree but producing long term climatic signals in the ocean. The cumulative volcanic cooling effect at present offsets about one third of anthropogenic warming [5].Other than these causes paleoclimatologists also relates the past climate changes with movement of solar system[6], interplanetary dusts and influence of asteroids[7].However the recent variability in climate what earth is experiencing is unlikely due to any of the individual above factors rather it is due to the compound effect of complex interactions of all the natural as well as anthropogenic forcings.
References:
1. J. C. Zachos, M. Pagani, L. Sloan, E. Thomas, K. Billups, Science 292 (2001) 686-693.
2. G. Kukla, Nature (London) 253, 600 (1975).
3. J. D. Hays, J. Imbrie, N. J. Shackleton, Science 194 (1876) 1121-1132.
4. N. Marsh, H. Swensmark, Space Sci. Rev. 94 (2000) 215-230.
5. T. L. Delworth, V. Ramaswamy, G. L. Stenchikov, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (2005) L24709.
6. K. Fuhrer, E. W. Wolf, S. J. Johnsen, J. Geophys. Res. 104(D24) (1999) 31043-31052
7. P. Hut, W. Alvarez, W. P. Elder, T. Hansen, E. G. Kauffman, G. Keller, E. M. Shoemaker & P. R. Weissman, Nature Vol. 329, 10 September, 1987
Climate Change Basics: Issues and Impacts for BoatingNASBLA
State Climatologist David Zierden presented Climate Change Basics: Issues and Impacts for Boating to the National Association of State Boating Law Administrators on September 9, 2008
Distance from the sea
Ocean currents
Prevailing winds
Relief (the lay of the land, including altitude)
Proximity to the equator (how near or far)
El Niño
Human activity
This is one of the course slides for the class "Climate Modeling (2015)" at Peking University. This chapter was prepared by and credited to Dr. Yonggang Liu.
Presentation given during the kick-off of the TU Delft Climate Institute on March 1st 2012. Sea level rise is one of the reserach topics of the new institute. Dr Bert Vermeersen explained why.
Climate: Climatic Change - Evidence, Cycles and The Futuregeomillie
A PowerPoint used in class to cover the key forms of evidence you need to know for the Exam. Key Questions are likely to be focused on how we can gain information of past climatic change, and how it can be used to predict future, and I would expect you to be able to comment on the usefulness of the different types. For instance, Ice cores are highly accurate and quantifiable evidence, but gaining them is expensive, and only gives a climatic record for the site at which the snow formed. However, they do provide the longest record of change.
Melting Ice: Context, Causes, and Consequences of Polar AmplificationZachary Labe
Profound changes are ongoing at the ends of our planet. Thawing permafrost buried in ancient soils, melting lake and river ice-cover, thinning sea ice, and dwindling mountain glaciers are just a few indicators of climate change within the Arctic. Further, billions of tons of ice are now lost per year from the Greenland Ice Sheet, leaving our coastlines increasingly vulnerable to sea level rise. ‘Polar amplification’ refers to enhanced climate changes in the high latitudes compared to the rest of the globe in response to an external forcing. In the Arctic, air temperatures are rising at more than twice the rate of the global average. While changes in the Antarctic have been slower than the Arctic, the Antarctic ice sheets store enough freshwater to increase global sea levels by 58 m. Thus, Antarctica is often considered our sleeping giant.
Despite robust evidence of polar amplification in the past and present-day, the largest spread in future climate model projections is found in the Arctic and Antarctic. Moreover, quantifying the positive feedbacks contributing to polar amplification remains quite challenging. These large uncertainties are critical for understanding the impacts of future changes to ocean biogeochemistry and circulation, global sea level rise, and mid-latitude climate extremes and variability. This talk will provide an overview of polar amplification using present-day observational evidence and climate models simulations through the late 21st century. In particular, how do we separate the signal and noise in polar climate change and make evidence-based predictions in a warming world?
Summary of key findings of "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report" by Matt Collins, University of Exeter, UK
SICCME open session, 17 September 2014, ICES Annual Science Conference, A Coruña, Spain
The Earth’s climate is dynamic and characterised by trends, aberrations and quasi-periodic oscillations varying over a broad range of time-scales [1], which are governed by external (extraterrestrial systems) and/or internal(ocean, atmosphere and land system). Trends are largely controlled by plate tectonics, and thus to change gradually on million year time scale. Aberrations occur when the certain thresholds are passed and are manifested in the geological record as the unusual rapid (less than a few thousands of years) or extreme change in climate. The quasi-periodic oscillations are mostly astronomically paced; they are driven by astronomical perturbations that affect the earth’s orbit around the sun and the orientation of earth’s rotation axis with respect to its orbital plane. These perturbations are described by the three main astronomical cycles: eccentricity, precession and obliquity, which together determine the spatial and seasonal pattern of insolation received by the earth [2], eventually resulting in climatic oscillations of ten to hundreds of thousands of year [3].Sun being the main source of energy for the earth system controls the climate of it. Variation in solar activity and cosmic ray intensity has direct influence over climatic features such as cloudiness, temperature and rainfall [4]. Volcanic eruptions also force all elements of the climatic systems up to a varying degree but producing long term climatic signals in the ocean. The cumulative volcanic cooling effect at present offsets about one third of anthropogenic warming [5].Other than these causes paleoclimatologists also relates the past climate changes with movement of solar system[6], interplanetary dusts and influence of asteroids[7].However the recent variability in climate what earth is experiencing is unlikely due to any of the individual above factors rather it is due to the compound effect of complex interactions of all the natural as well as anthropogenic forcings.
References:
1. J. C. Zachos, M. Pagani, L. Sloan, E. Thomas, K. Billups, Science 292 (2001) 686-693.
2. G. Kukla, Nature (London) 253, 600 (1975).
3. J. D. Hays, J. Imbrie, N. J. Shackleton, Science 194 (1876) 1121-1132.
4. N. Marsh, H. Swensmark, Space Sci. Rev. 94 (2000) 215-230.
5. T. L. Delworth, V. Ramaswamy, G. L. Stenchikov, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (2005) L24709.
6. K. Fuhrer, E. W. Wolf, S. J. Johnsen, J. Geophys. Res. 104(D24) (1999) 31043-31052
7. P. Hut, W. Alvarez, W. P. Elder, T. Hansen, E. G. Kauffman, G. Keller, E. M. Shoemaker & P. R. Weissman, Nature Vol. 329, 10 September, 1987
Climate Change Basics: Issues and Impacts for BoatingNASBLA
State Climatologist David Zierden presented Climate Change Basics: Issues and Impacts for Boating to the National Association of State Boating Law Administrators on September 9, 2008
Distance from the sea
Ocean currents
Prevailing winds
Relief (the lay of the land, including altitude)
Proximity to the equator (how near or far)
El Niño
Human activity
This is one of the course slides for the class "Climate Modeling (2015)" at Peking University. This chapter was prepared by and credited to Dr. Yonggang Liu.
Presentation given during the kick-off of the TU Delft Climate Institute on March 1st 2012. Sea level rise is one of the reserach topics of the new institute. Dr Bert Vermeersen explained why.
Climate: Climatic Change - Evidence, Cycles and The Futuregeomillie
A PowerPoint used in class to cover the key forms of evidence you need to know for the Exam. Key Questions are likely to be focused on how we can gain information of past climatic change, and how it can be used to predict future, and I would expect you to be able to comment on the usefulness of the different types. For instance, Ice cores are highly accurate and quantifiable evidence, but gaining them is expensive, and only gives a climatic record for the site at which the snow formed. However, they do provide the longest record of change.
Are we overlooking potential abrupt climate shifts?
Most of the studies and debates on potential climate change, along with its ecological and economic impacts, have focused on the ongoing buildup of industrial greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and a gradual increase in global tempera- tures. This line of thinking, however, fails to consider another potentially disruptive climate scenario. It ignores recent and rapidly advancing evidence that Earth’s climate repeatedly has shifted abruptly and dramatically in the past, and is capable of doing so in the future.
Fossil evidence clearly demonstrates that Earth’s climate can shift gears within a decade, establishing new and different patterns that can persist for decades to centuries. In addition, these climate shifts do not necessarily have universal, global effects. They can generate a counterintuitive scenario: Even as the earth as a whole continues to warm gradually, large regions may experience a precipitous and disruptive shift into colder climates.
This new paradigm of abrupt climate change has been well established over the last decade by research of ocean, earth
The global ocean circulation system, often called the Ocean Conveyor, transports heat worldwide. White sections represent warm surface cur- rents. Purple sections represent cold deep currents.
and atmosphere scientists at many institutions worldwide. But the concept remains little known and scarcely appreciated in the wider community of scientists, economists, policy mak- ers, and world political and business leaders. Thus, world lead- ers may be planning for climate scenarios of global warming that are opposite to what might actually occur.1
It is important to clarify that we are not contemplating a situation of either abrupt cooling or global warming. Rather, abrupt regional cooling and gradual global warming can un- fold simultaneously. Indeed, greenhouse warming is a desta- bilizing factor that makes abrupt climate change more prob- able. A 2002 report by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) said, “available evidence suggests that abrupt climate changes are not only possible but likely in the future, poten- tially with large impacts on ecosystems and societies.”2
The timing of any abrupt regional cooling in the future also has critical policy implications. An abrupt cooling that hap- pens within the next two decades would produce different climate effects than one that occurs after another century of continuing greenhouse warming.
1. Find 2 scientific articles (with opposing viewpoints) which ad.docxchristiandean12115
1. Find 2 scientific articles (with opposing viewpoints) which address the above question and post a 250 word summary on each.
Article 1: Evidence of glacial retreat due to climate change
According to the National Snow & Ice Data Center, glaciers have been receding since around 1760 and are predicted to completely vanish within the next few decades. They attribute this to the 40% increase in carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, caused by emissions from human activities like transportation and industry. Coal, petroleum, and other fossil fuels like methane are trapping heat in the atmosphere (greenhouse gases), which are causing glacial retreat. Other human activities like farming and the burning of forests are also attributed to glacial retreat (National Snow & Ice Data Center).
The article cites that evidence of glacial retreat can be found in the cores of glaciers and ice sheets. Especially important are trapped air bubbles, which contain clues to the history of our atmosphere and historical changes in our climate. Ice cores have provided the evidence of past Ice Ages and may point to how climate might change in the coming years (National Snow & Ice Data Center).
The article cites two specific examples of glacial retreat. In the Himalayan Mountains of Bhutan, lakes have appeared and the glaciers have been receding in past decades. As well, the Gangotri Glacier in the Uttarkashi District of Garwhal Himalaya has receded over 850 meters in 25 years. Its retreat began in 1780 and markedly sped up after 1971 (National Snow & Ice Data Center).
Article 2: Non-human causes are implicated in glacial melt
I had difficulty finding a scientific article disproving the human effect on glacial retreat, but I did find one article from Futurism.com covering a report (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site. from Springer Nature Publishing AG, which pointed to non-human related causes for glacial melt.
The point of the article basically states that glacial melting is not solely caused by human activities, but also are caused by "natural factors." By analyzing climate model simulations, researchers tried to determine how much of glacial retreat was caused by man-made global warming, and how much was caused by "natural" variables. The researchers estimated that natural variables are causing from 40-50 percent of ice melt (Houser).
According to the article, NASA calculates that since 1971, we have lost 21,000 square miles of sea ice, and the ice melt contributes to real consequences like extreme weather, global warming, and rising sea levels. The article ends by stating that regardless of how much human beings are to blame, human beings must try to do something to stop the advancement of glacial melt, due to its world-changing effects (Houser).
2. Which position do you agree with and why?
Article 1 cited evidence that the glaciers are in fact melting (showing two glaciers in the Himalayas) and correlated the rise of human industrial activities with .
Antarctic melting (with proof from diff. articles)
Are we leading to the fourth glacial period? Global Freezing- A review
1.
2. Are we leading to the
4th Glacial Period ??
Shaiza Saeed Malik
Roll No. 10
M.phil Zoology
Global Freezing-
A Review
3. Arctic Ocean, least
covered with ice in
2012.
Arctic Ocean,
contradict to
predictions, was
more covered with
ice in 2013.
EVIDENCES GIVEN BY NASA
4. Climate model projections were summarized in the
2013 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicated that during
the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise
a further. The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of
models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas
concentrations.
Global cooling was a conjecture during the 1970s of
imminent cooling of the Earth’s surface
and atmosphere culminating in a period of
extensive glaciations. This hypothesis had little support in
the scientific community, but gained temporary popular
attention due to a combination of a slight downward trend of
temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s.
INTRODUCTION
5. What is the difference between “Global Warming” and
“Global Freezing”?
How do we come to know about the concentrations of
CO2 in a certain time period?
Are causes of Global warming and cooling the same?
What would be the Physical mechanism for the decrease
in temperatures as said by some scientists (mainly
climatologists) specially in the Northern hemisphere?
6. The Greenhouse Effect – due to
greenhouse gases which mainly are
i. Carbon Dioxide (CO2 )
ii. Chlorofluorocarbons ( CFCs )
iii. Methane (CH4 )
iv. Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
Solar Radiation
Aerosols
Albedos
13. What is Thermohaline Circulation?
Why does it happen?
How is it affected by climate?
How does it affect climate?
How has it changed in the past?
How might it change in the future?
Conclusions….
Thermohaline Circulation
14. Pre requisite knowledge we should have:
Definition of Advection and Convection
General global mapping; knowledge of poles, equator,
counter current wind flow, DWF sites, Upwelling sites.
Labrador sea, Greenland sea, Mediterranean sea,
Weddell sea and Ross sea
Circumpolar and Subpolar movement
Diapycnal water
Profile of the Drake passage*
Ekman Layer and Transport (physics related)*
Gyre and gyre circulation*
Climate Models e.g., Global Climate Models GCMs,
Atlantic Meridional Over tuning Models (AMOs), Pacific
Meridional Over tuning Models (PMOs).
Southern Oscillation Trends (El-Nino, La-Nina trends)
NOAA observatories round the globe specially at
Mauna Loa, Hawaii
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21. In a Nutshell
Thermo-” Temperature
“-haline” Salinity
Temperature & salinity affect
density.
Density differences affect
circulation.
Douglas T. McClureDouglas T. McClure
Intro. to Physical OceanographyIntro. to Physical Oceanography
11/30/0511/30/05
22.
23.
24.
25. Global Warming and Surface freshening:
Both these factors will reduce the density of high latitude surface waters
and inhibit the deep water formation. (S. Rahmstorf, 2006)
Manabe and Stouffer projected in 1993, a four fold increase in CO2.
Increased CO2 leads to increase in Hydrological cycle which in turn
might collapse the Atlantic thermohaline circulation.
26.
27. What is Glacier Surge?
Why does it happen?
How is it affected by climate?
How does it affect climate?
How has it changed in the past?
How might it change in the future?
Conclusions….
28. What are surging glaciers?
Surge behaviour:
“multi-year oscillation between extended
periods of normal motion and brief
periods of comparatively fast motion.”
(C.F.Raymond, 1987)
33. Eastern Saint Elias Mountains
Black Rapids Glacier
Bakaninbreen in Svalbard
Skeiararjokull in Iceland
West Fork Glacier in the Alaska
Range
34. CONCLUSIONS
In light of the factors of THC and Glacier Surging,
we might be able to discuss:
Are we in active surging phase(active phase) at
present or not?
If we are in surging phase (active phase), in
Northern hemisphere?, in Southern hemisphere or
both?
Is THC large enough as compared to the
greenhouse effect? To cause decrease in global
warming….
Else than Karakoram glaciers, most of the highest
glaciers have not been seen to increase in Ice
caps….
35. In my point of view, the projections of four fold
increase of CO2 levels (in 1993) has occurred by
now as the accuracy of the measurements as given
by NOAA at Mauna Loa, Hawaii seems to be
doubtless.
But with the acceptance of complexity of
Climatology and Oceanic studies, owing to only
one aspect we cannot say that Atlantic THC will
surely collapse in coming years.
If any such scenario is noticed the Northern
Hemisphere will face intolerable cooling likewise
the southern hemisphere will face unbearable warm
climate as the Southern Oscillation trend is tending
towards El-Niña.
36. IPCC – Intergovernmental panel on climate change
AOGCM- Atmospheric, Oceanic Global Climate Models
NASA- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
SCEP report- Study of Critical Environmental Problems
[GISS, UAH and RSS]
NSB- National Science Board
1975 National Academy of Sciences report
1974 Time Magazine article
1975 Newsweek article
1979 WMO conference- World Meteorological Organization
CAN WE SAY THAT WE ARE GOING TO ENTER THE GLOBAL FREEZING?
Anthropogenic*
*the human made or enhanced greenhouse effect.
Mauna Lao was selected for CO2 concentrations because of its being perfect for exact measurements of CO2 conc. Mauna Loa exhibits good mixture (by ratio) of air contents in it. In the graph above, note that concentrations of CO2 lie totally same (adjacent) for both, the Mauna Loa and Global CO2 concentrations.
Reference of image: DISASTER PAGES of Dr. GEORGE PARARAS-CARAYANNIS
http://www.drgeorgepc.com/ClimateChange.html
Aerosols are liquid or solid particles suspended in the air.
They have a direct radiative forcing because they scatter and absorb solar and infrared radiation in the atmosphere.
Aerosols directly or indirectly effect the climate.
Image source:http://www.pnnl.gov/science/highlights/highlight.asp?id=1415
The fraction of the incident radiation that is reflected from the surface is called the albedo. Albedo plays a major role in the energy balance of the earth’s surface, as it defines the rate of the absorbed portion of the incident solar radiation.
Image source: http://www.earthonlinemedia.com/ipg/outlines/lecture_radiation_energy_balance.html
The thermohaline circulation is the part of the global ocean circulation that is driven by geographic differences in the density of sea water, which are controlled by temperature (thermal) and salinity (haline). In the North Atlantic this circulation transports warm and salty water from the tropics to the north. There, the water cools and releases heat to the atmosphere, warming the North Atlantic region. Once the water loses heat, it becomes cooler and more dense, sinking into the deep ocean. This deepwater flows slowly southward (~0.1 m/s) near the bottom of the ocean basins and gradually returns to the surface as a result of wind-driven upwelling near Antarctica and slow diffusive upwelling over the rest of the global ocean. It then joins near-surface currents to be returned to the areas of deepwater formation.
Image sources: http://www.e2ccb.org/webpages/rjowsey/oceanography.cfm
[Kuhlbrodt, et al., submitted]
[S. Rahmstrof., 2006]
1)Note the Gyre circulations separately (in North and South)
2) Circumpolar and Subpolar movement
Double click the clip or watch online on link given below:Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=3884
Douglas T. McClure
Intro. to Physical Oceanography
11/30/05
1900-1925 COOL- AMO AND PDO BOTH NEGATIVE OR COOL
1926 -1944 VERY WARM - AMO AND PDO BOTH POSITIVE OR WARM
1964- 1976 VERY COOL- AMO AND PDO BOTH NEGATIVE OR COOL
1994 2007- VERY WARM- AMO AND PDO BOTH WARM [so called global warming period
2009 - COOL- AMO AND PDO BOTH NEGATIVE OR COOL
Reference Paper: AMO and PDO- The Real Climate Makers In United States?
By Matt Vooro
PDO AND AMO BOTH IN COOL PHASE –IS GLOBAL COOLING AHEAD?
Similar graphs can be prepared for Canada and the globe as a whole.
It would appear that with the PDO and AMO now both in the cool phase again and this cycle can last up to 20-30 years, we are headed for global cooling. We seem to be in the same climate cycle that we were back in 1964-1976.The last two winters have been very similar to those we had back then with all the extra snow and cold temperatures. Could the flooding of the Red River this year due to the extra snow and cold temperatures be a warning of cooler weather to come?
To advise people and the nation to prepare for global warming when global cooling is underway and expected to continue for many more decades is truly tragic when we have so many other more pressing problems.
This cooling is exactly what Professor Don Easterbrook of WESTERN WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY also predicts. See his power point presentation here.
Global Warming and Global Cooling are both big catastrophes happening to the earth right now. The people who believe in these catastrophes are divided into two groups, Liberals and Conservatives. Liberals for instance believe in global warming while the conservatives on the other hand believe more in global cooling. I put my faith in global cooling because of some hard scientific evidence. This decade for example has not been the best year for global warming. China has had its coldest winter in 100 years, Baghdad has seen its first snowfall in recorded history, North America has had the most snow cover in 50 years, Record levels of Antarctic sea ice, Record low temperatures in Minnesota and the list goes on … These are of course anecdotal evidence but in the following paragraph I will tell you more about global cooling and its scientific evidence.
Global cooling is simply the cooling of the earth. It is caused by absence of sunspot activity. All these scientists have proven that the sun's protective solar wind (from sunspots) blows away deep-space cosmic rays. With fewer sunspots there is less solar wind, more cosmic rays, and more cloud formation from those cosmic rays. More cloud formation means more cooling effect on the planet. The anecdotal evidence tells us a lot about the earth cooling down but what good is it without scientific evidence? In the year 2008, global temperatures from satellite and land-temperature gauges have cooled 0.65C up to 0.75C (see figure 1), making it the fastest temperature change ever recorded. NASA satellites also found that 2008’s Arctic Sea ice covered 2 million square kilometers (772,000 square miles) more than the last three years average. It also was 10 to 20 centimeters (about 4-8 inches) thicker than in 2007. The list for this goes on too as there are so many satellites, temperature gauges etc. but these all are saying one thing “The Globe is cooling”. But as they all say not everything is 1 sided this subject also has another side to it which is global warming.
Aswin Bakhre.